~a
paul: "allowing Tesla owners to rent out their car during downtimes" this seems like an oversimplification. in these down times, you still have to clean out the vomit and vandalism, you still need to maintain the tires/battery/upholstery and pay depreciation. you can't possibly make money and it isn't even close. (and in other news, it still puts out emissions and still takes up space on the road, even if nobody is riding in it). ~a
a: Similarly for Woodrow Wilson being ahead of people like Reagan. Didn't Wilson re-segregate the federal government? How is Obama so high? What did he accomplish that puts him top ten near Jefferson? -Paul
a: Does the Japanese internment mean nothing? The Yalta conference? -Paul
a: I know my opinion of a good president is different than most, but I still am absolutely floored that historians continue to rank FDR so highly. Is it just because he was president for so long? Because he was president during WW2? -Paul
a: The economics of robotaxis will be interesting. Not sure what the path to profitability for Waymo will look like, but Tesla seems like it will have a slightly different model in terms of allowing Tesla owners to rent out their car during downtimes. -Paul
paul: what articles? can i read them? diversity of thought doesn't feel like a metric that can be easy to measure: if you're trying to say maga doesn't post there, then i am not sure i care. ~a
paul: somehow historians manage. obviously owning slaves was a terrible practice. unforgivable by today's standards. and comparing apples and oranges is hard. especially if one president had to manage a war they didn't start, and another had to preside in peacetime. the point was that trump was the worst president since the first trump presidency. they both sucked. ~a
paul: (off topic on our bet, but i do find it interesting how robotaxis and waymo can't possibly make money. for a taxi to make money, i believe you need a cheaper car, or higher fares) ~a
paul: yes, i think you are right. my info on the tesla fsd is a bit dated, my mistake. i've seen some videos now, and the tesla robotaxis are still being "monitored"? the monitor sits in the passenger seat, which i think is a huge step forward: it's a huge sign, and i agree with you, that's level four by our old definition. ~a
a: https://aporter.org/msg/?action=prev&prev=178250#178266 Do you still consider Bluesky to not be a protest app? There's been some articles highlighting perceived lack of diversity of thought there. -Paul
title: I always struggle with ranking presidents. How does one compare somebody like Trump with somebody like Washington who is generally revered as one of the best.... but also owned slaves? -Paul
I don't know if anybody besides Adrian and I check this regularly, but with the recent Mamdani win I'm curious: Do people here consider "socialism" to be bad? -Paul
a: Aren't robotaxis (either Waymo or the Tesla ones) oftentimes unoccupied? Feels like those would count as level 4 based on the old definition that we used for the bet. -Paul
paul: i'm not sure we disagree on this. which part do we disagree on? whether the definitions changed? ~a
paul: (and using the original 2015 definition we used for the bet it is clearly level 3. of course a telsa y+fsd couldn't be an "unoccupied car". it seems like they shifted the levels over by one?) it's possible waymo is able to achieve a level higher than tesla, right? they can be unoccupied, or potentially have no steering wheel or driver. ~a
paul: "Model Y with FSD" is pretty clearly level 4 using J3016_202104 (page 29 of the pdf). there are clearly "domains" (odd) where the car can't handle. ~a
a: Are Tesla robotaxis different from a Model Y with FSD? Sure, I'm interested in your opinion on the robotaxi as well as something for sale (I'm guessing Waymos are going to be too expensive on account of the lidar. -Paul
paul: "Waymo and the Tesla robotaxis". Those aren't for sale. I can try to answer anyways for fun but should I include something for sale as well? ~a
a: I think we can both agree that EVs have been proven to be viable years ago, but they still only account for like <10% of car sales. -Paul
a: "I don't think the us will get to 50% motor vehicle passengers using" That's a pretty different bet. Something being viable and something being used by 50%+ of Americans is very different. -Paul
a: "doesnt the tesla cost too much" Yup. That's why I mentioned the price points dooming me. "I know you want to blame this on biden" I don't know if Biden is to blame specifically. There are a lot of factors that led to bad inflation a few years ago. -Paul
a: "we disagree on that? I didn't realized we disagreed on that." I thought we did. What level do you think we've achieved right now with Waymo and the Tesla robotaxis? -Paul
paul: regardless of all of that, if you think we're close, and I do not think we are close, we could always make a new bet. I don't think the us will get to 50% motor vehicle passengers using (sae J3016_202104) level 5 fsd, in 10 years. hell, 15 years. ~a
paul: "I know we disagree on what level we've reached" we disagree on that? I didn't realized we disagreed on that. even if so, aren't there a ton of other problems? doesnt the tesla cost too much (with or without inflation?)? doesn't fsd cost a *lot* extra? (99/month or 8k?). I know you want to blame this on biden (within normal amount of) inflation, but I'm not sure that is realistic. ~a
a: I still think the autonomous driving one is close (I know we disagree on what level we've reached) but the thing I failed to take into account was my price points so that basically made things moot. We had low inflation for so long that I didn't anticipate it impacting the bet. -Paul
a: And in the end, it was still a lot more actively managed than I prefer (they kept trading into and out of things like Tesla). I'm a little surprised I lost by that much, but not surprised to take the L. -Paul
a: Oh, the ARKK one doesn't surprise me at all. Like literally a few minutes after making it I realized it was probably a mistake. ARKK was pretty much at the absolute peak when we made the bet. -Paul
paul: post-mortem on those three bets: the one that surprises me the most is arkk. like, wth happened? electric cars being all talk and no show, and bitcoin prices being crazy are both non-surprising (imo). ~a
paul: I'm not being intentionally obtuse. this time. I linked bip 177. It's a serious proposal, but I have doubts it will catch on. (I would be pleasantly surprised if 177 caught on). ~a
Xpovos: Yes, about it being acquired. -Paul
a: It's possible. My memory isn't good enough to say for sure. -Paul
a: Is this the bet on Nintendo? -- Xpovos
100,000,000x is a big multiplier. 10^8. I assumed (it sounds correctly) that a was just having fun with it. But also, we've lived in a weird time where this money barely even makes sense. Almost anything is possible. -- Xpovos
a: why stop at $30/hr why not $1000/hr? - mig
If I lived on Metro, I might consider it, but it would be miserable if my kids were younger still. As I have to drive to get to a Metro in the first, it’s moot. — Xpovos
Though, that is of course a bag for my work stuff. I think Paul’s point is much more to a tourist (probably more than a backpack, but likely still manageable on Metro), or more seriously a family of tourists. The extra luggage a family brings, added to the need to corral the children is a significant hardship. — Xpovos
I take a bag on the blue/yellow and red line several times a week. — Xpovos
paul: "The alternatives aren't biking and walking, though" i said "public transit or pedestrians etc". i didn't mention biking. why are they not alternatives? i take the silver line to iad. and i take the blue line to dca. i'm not the only one: the number of people i see with bags on the blue and the silver line is crazy high. ~a
paul: "Do you not think it will increase unemployment and/or prices?" no not in manhattan, probably not. i'd make the change very gradually, though. and i'd probably argue for $30/h so i could actually get $25/h. ~a
paul: "Based on time or usage?" i obviously don't think a car will depreciate $50 driving to the airport. unless the airport is 182 miles away? (hell, say, 175,000 miles)/($45k + $8k for fsd - $5k resale)*(a $50 trip) = 182 miles. in our "$50" conversation, i predicted $17 of that was depreciation and you know that? you say "depreciate $50" as a straw man? ~a
a: "socialism is just a word" Sure.... but it's a word describing a set of beliefs. I'm surprised by your support of a $30 minimum wage. Do you not think it will increase unemployment and/or prices? -Paul
a: The alternatives aren't biking and walking, though. The alternatives are people owning a car or renting a car or taking a taxi or Uber. -Paul
a: "how fast do you think a tesla model 3 or y depreciates?" Based on time or usage? We had this debate before about driving my car into DC, remember? I don't think a Tesla is going to depreciate by $50 if rented out for a trip to the airport. -Paul
paul: oops missed this one. "but with the recent Mamdani win I'm curious: Do people here consider 'socialism' to be bad?" paul socialism is just a word. i'm against rent control AND city-owned grocery stores AND public child care (assuming we aren't talking about "sacc"?). i'm border-line on fare-free city busses: i could get behind it, depending on some context. i'm pro nyc $30 minimum wage, i'm VERY pro zoning/parking reform. ~a
paul: i forgot to mention road deaths and road injury too: assuming the robotaxis aren't perfect they'll also increase road deaths+injuries compared to all altervatives. ~a
paul: "It's to have them driving around to pick up people similar to an Uber" yeah, i put that in parentheses because it's not related to comparing robotaxis vs ubers: instead i am comparing robotaxis to all alternatives. to get the total cost. alternatives like public transit or pedestrians etc. ~a
paul: "but I don't think cars depreciate as fast as you think they do" how fast do you think a tesla model 3 or y depreciates? ~a
paul: "but I don't think cars depreciate as fast as you think they do" oh man this is so knowable though. the debate can be so definitive. Tesla Values Are Tanking Three Times Faster Than Any Other Brand. how long do you expect a tesla battery to last, and how expensive do you think a new tesla battery is? ~a
a: I don't know if I get your point about it still putting out emissions even if empty. The idea isn't to have a bunch of empty cars driving around for no reason. It's to have them driving around to pick up people similar to an Uber. -Paul
a: "you can't possibly make money and it isn't even close" Sure, if everybody is vomiting in your Tesla every time you rent it out. But that's probably not the case? I know this touches on a dispute from before, but I don't think cars depreciate as fast as you think they do. -Paul
paul: that has not been my experience, but i guess it's just who you follow? ~a
a: "if you're trying to say maga doesn't post there, then i am not sure i care" It's not just maga, it seems like nobody posts there except for the far left. -Paul
a: https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-bluesky-echo-chamber-engagement-boosts-elon-musk-x-2025-6 Here is one. It's easy to find others with Google searches if you don't like this one. -Paul
paul: shrug. i'm not a follower of history sorry. trust all historians ~a
paul: "allowing Tesla owners to rent out their car during downtimes" this seems like an oversimplification. in these down times, you still have to clean out the vomit and vandalism, you still need to maintain the tires/battery/upholstery and pay depreciation. you can't possibly make money and it isn't even close. (and in other news, it still puts out emissions and still takes up space on the road, even if nobody is riding in it). ~a
a: Similarly for Woodrow Wilson being ahead of people like Reagan. Didn't Wilson re-segregate the federal government? How is Obama so high? What did he accomplish that puts him top ten near Jefferson? -Paul
a: Does the Japanese internment mean nothing? The Yalta conference? -Paul
a: I know my opinion of a good president is different than most, but I still am absolutely floored that historians continue to rank FDR so highly. Is it just because he was president for so long? Because he was president during WW2? -Paul
a: The economics of robotaxis will be interesting. Not sure what the path to profitability for Waymo will look like, but Tesla seems like it will have a slightly different model in terms of allowing Tesla owners to rent out their car during downtimes. -Paul
paul: what articles? can i read them? diversity of thought doesn't feel like a metric that can be easy to measure: if you're trying to say maga doesn't post there, then i am not sure i care. ~a
paul: somehow historians manage. obviously owning slaves was a terrible practice. unforgivable by today's standards. and comparing apples and oranges is hard. especially if one president had to manage a war they didn't start, and another had to preside in peacetime. the point was that trump was the worst president since the first trump presidency. they both sucked. ~a
paul: (off topic on our bet, but i do find it interesting how robotaxis and waymo can't possibly make money. for a taxi to make money, i believe you need a cheaper car, or higher fares) ~a
paul: yes, i think you are right. my info on the tesla fsd is a bit dated, my mistake. i've seen some videos now, and the tesla robotaxis are still being "monitored"? the monitor sits in the passenger seat, which i think is a huge step forward: it's a huge sign, and i agree with you, that's level four by our old definition. ~a
a: https://aporter.org/msg/?action=prev&prev=178250#178266 Do you still consider Bluesky to not be a protest app? There's been some articles highlighting perceived lack of diversity of thought there. -Paul
title: I always struggle with ranking presidents. How does one compare somebody like Trump with somebody like Washington who is generally revered as one of the best.... but also owned slaves? -Paul
I don't know if anybody besides Adrian and I check this regularly, but with the recent Mamdani win I'm curious: Do people here consider "socialism" to be bad? -Paul
a: Aren't robotaxis (either Waymo or the Tesla ones) oftentimes unoccupied? Feels like those would count as level 4 based on the old definition that we used for the bet. -Paul
paul: i'm not sure we disagree on this. which part do we disagree on? whether the definitions changed? ~a
paul: (and using the original 2015 definition we used for the bet it is clearly level 3. of course a telsa y+fsd couldn't be an "unoccupied car". it seems like they shifted the levels over by one?) it's possible waymo is able to achieve a level higher than tesla, right? they can be unoccupied, or potentially have no steering wheel or driver. ~a
paul: "Model Y with FSD" is pretty clearly level 4 using J3016_202104 (page 29 of the pdf). there are clearly "domains" (odd) where the car can't handle. ~a
a: Are Tesla robotaxis different from a Model Y with FSD? Sure, I'm interested in your opinion on the robotaxi as well as something for sale (I'm guessing Waymos are going to be too expensive on account of the lidar. -Paul
paul: "Waymo and the Tesla robotaxis". Those aren't for sale. I can try to answer anyways for fun but should I include something for sale as well? ~a
a: I think we can both agree that EVs have been proven to be viable years ago, but they still only account for like <10% of car sales. -Paul
a: "I don't think the us will get to 50% motor vehicle passengers using" That's a pretty different bet. Something being viable and something being used by 50%+ of Americans is very different. -Paul
a: "doesnt the tesla cost too much" Yup. That's why I mentioned the price points dooming me. "I know you want to blame this on biden" I don't know if Biden is to blame specifically. There are a lot of factors that led to bad inflation a few years ago. -Paul
a: "we disagree on that? I didn't realized we disagreed on that." I thought we did. What level do you think we've achieved right now with Waymo and the Tesla robotaxis? -Paul
paul: regardless of all of that, if you think we're close, and I do not think we are close, we could always make a new bet. I don't think the us will get to 50% motor vehicle passengers using (sae J3016_202104) level 5 fsd, in 10 years. hell, 15 years. ~a
paul: "I know we disagree on what level we've reached" we disagree on that? I didn't realized we disagreed on that. even if so, aren't there a ton of other problems? doesnt the tesla cost too much (with or without inflation?)? doesn't fsd cost a *lot* extra? (99/month or 8k?). I know you want to blame this on biden (within normal amount of) inflation, but I'm not sure that is realistic. ~a
a: I still think the autonomous driving one is close (I know we disagree on what level we've reached) but the thing I failed to take into account was my price points so that basically made things moot. We had low inflation for so long that I didn't anticipate it impacting the bet. -Paul
a: And in the end, it was still a lot more actively managed than I prefer (they kept trading into and out of things like Tesla). I'm a little surprised I lost by that much, but not surprised to take the L. -Paul
a: Oh, the ARKK one doesn't surprise me at all. Like literally a few minutes after making it I realized it was probably a mistake. ARKK was pretty much at the absolute peak when we made the bet. -Paul
paul: post-mortem on those three bets: the one that surprises me the most is arkk. like, wth happened? electric cars being all talk and no show, and bitcoin prices being crazy are both non-surprising (imo). ~a
paul: I'm not being intentionally obtuse. this time. I linked bip 177. It's a serious proposal, but I have doubts it will catch on. (I would be pleasantly surprised if 177 caught on). ~a
Xpovos: Yes, about it being acquired. -Paul
a: It's possible. My memory isn't good enough to say for sure. -Paul
a: Is this the bet on Nintendo? -- Xpovos
100,000,000x is a big multiplier. 10^8. I assumed (it sounds correctly) that a was just having fun with it. But also, we've lived in a weird time where this money barely even makes sense. Almost anything is possible. -- Xpovos
~a
paul: "allowing Tesla owners to rent out their car during downtimes" this seems like an oversimplification. in these down times, you still have to clean out the vomit and vandalism, you still need to maintain the tires/battery/upholstery and pay depreciation. you can't possibly make money and it isn't even close. (and in other news, it still puts out emissions and still takes up space on the road, even if nobody is riding in it). ~a
a: Similarly for Woodrow Wilson being ahead of people like Reagan. Didn't Wilson re-segregate the federal government? How is Obama so high? What did he accomplish that puts him top ten near Jefferson? -Paul
a: Does the Japanese internment mean nothing? The Yalta conference? -Paul
a: I know my opinion of a good president is different than most, but I still am absolutely floored that historians continue to rank FDR so highly. Is it just because he was president for so long? Because he was president during WW2? -Paul
a: The economics of robotaxis will be interesting. Not sure what the path to profitability for Waymo will look like, but Tesla seems like it will have a slightly different model in terms of allowing Tesla owners to rent out their car during downtimes. -Paul
paul: what articles? can i read them? diversity of thought doesn't feel like a metric that can be easy to measure: if you're trying to say maga doesn't post there, then i am not sure i care. ~a
paul: somehow historians manage. obviously owning slaves was a terrible practice. unforgivable by today's standards. and comparing apples and oranges is hard. especially if one president had to manage a war they didn't start, and another had to preside in peacetime. the point was that trump was the worst president since the first trump presidency. they both sucked. ~a
paul: (off topic on our bet, but i do find it interesting how robotaxis and waymo can't possibly make money. for a taxi to make money, i believe you need a cheaper car, or higher fares) ~a
paul: yes, i think you are right. my info on the tesla fsd is a bit dated, my mistake. i've seen some videos now, and the tesla robotaxis are still being "monitored"? the monitor sits in the passenger seat, which i think is a huge step forward: it's a huge sign, and i agree with you, that's level four by our old definition. ~a
a: https://aporter.org/msg/?action=prev&prev=178250#178266 Do you still consider Bluesky to not be a protest app? There's been some articles highlighting perceived lack of diversity of thought there. -Paul
title: I always struggle with ranking presidents. How does one compare somebody like Trump with somebody like Washington who is generally revered as one of the best.... but also owned slaves? -Paul
I don't know if anybody besides Adrian and I check this regularly, but with the recent Mamdani win I'm curious: Do people here consider "socialism" to be bad? -Paul
a: Aren't robotaxis (either Waymo or the Tesla ones) oftentimes unoccupied? Feels like those would count as level 4 based on the old definition that we used for the bet. -Paul
paul: i'm not sure we disagree on this. which part do we disagree on? whether the definitions changed? ~a
paul: (and using the original 2015 definition we used for the bet it is clearly level 3. of course a telsa y+fsd couldn't be an "unoccupied car". it seems like they shifted the levels over by one?) it's possible waymo is able to achieve a level higher than tesla, right? they can be unoccupied, or potentially have no steering wheel or driver. ~a
paul: "Model Y with FSD" is pretty clearly level 4 using J3016_202104 (page 29 of the pdf). there are clearly "domains" (odd) where the car can't handle. ~a
a: Are Tesla robotaxis different from a Model Y with FSD? Sure, I'm interested in your opinion on the robotaxi as well as something for sale (I'm guessing Waymos are going to be too expensive on account of the lidar. -Paul
paul: "Waymo and the Tesla robotaxis". Those aren't for sale. I can try to answer anyways for fun but should I include something for sale as well? ~a
a: I think we can both agree that EVs have been proven to be viable years ago, but they still only account for like <10% of car sales. -Paul
a: "I don't think the us will get to 50% motor vehicle passengers using" That's a pretty different bet. Something being viable and something being used by 50%+ of Americans is very different. -Paul
a: "doesnt the tesla cost too much" Yup. That's why I mentioned the price points dooming me. "I know you want to blame this on biden" I don't know if Biden is to blame specifically. There are a lot of factors that led to bad inflation a few years ago. -Paul
a: "we disagree on that? I didn't realized we disagreed on that." I thought we did. What level do you think we've achieved right now with Waymo and the Tesla robotaxis? -Paul
paul: regardless of all of that, if you think we're close, and I do not think we are close, we could always make a new bet. I don't think the us will get to 50% motor vehicle passengers using (sae J3016_202104) level 5 fsd, in 10 years. hell, 15 years. ~a
paul: "I know we disagree on what level we've reached" we disagree on that? I didn't realized we disagreed on that. even if so, aren't there a ton of other problems? doesnt the tesla cost too much (with or without inflation?)? doesn't fsd cost a *lot* extra? (99/month or 8k?). I know you want to blame this on biden (within normal amount of) inflation, but I'm not sure that is realistic. ~a
a: I still think the autonomous driving one is close (I know we disagree on what level we've reached) but the thing I failed to take into account was my price points so that basically made things moot. We had low inflation for so long that I didn't anticipate it impacting the bet. -Paul
a: And in the end, it was still a lot more actively managed than I prefer (they kept trading into and out of things like Tesla). I'm a little surprised I lost by that much, but not surprised to take the L. -Paul
a: Oh, the ARKK one doesn't surprise me at all. Like literally a few minutes after making it I realized it was probably a mistake. ARKK was pretty much at the absolute peak when we made the bet. -Paul
paul: post-mortem on those three bets: the one that surprises me the most is arkk. like, wth happened? electric cars being all talk and no show, and bitcoin prices being crazy are both non-surprising (imo). ~a
paul: I'm not being intentionally obtuse. this time. I linked bip 177. It's a serious proposal, but I have doubts it will catch on. (I would be pleasantly surprised if 177 caught on). ~a
Xpovos: Yes, about it being acquired. -Paul
a: It's possible. My memory isn't good enough to say for sure. -Paul
a: Is this the bet on Nintendo? -- Xpovos
100,000,000x is a big multiplier. 10^8. I assumed (it sounds correctly) that a was just having fun with it. But also, we've lived in a weird time where this money barely even makes sense. Almost anything is possible. -- Xpovos