we always share the costs and we never share the profits

a: "does he have his own app or something?" I've no idea. I imagine Tesla already has an app for car owners? Maybe it's included in that? -Paul paul:  "are you surprised TSLA hasn't taken a bigger hit" nah I imagine it's similar to a meme stock, at this point.  the whole stock market can be irrational, but that's uncommon.  having a single stock be irrational?  that is common.  maybe if he cut his losses on the cyber truck (and took a haircut) i'd consider investing again.  ~a paul:  fuck.  ok, well, you've convinced me.  i think you could maybe make money renting a tesla robotaxi.  does he have his own app or something?  I imagine Uber or Lyft are considering this as an option?  ~a a: Somewhat combining our talk about the market and Tesla.... are you surprised TSLA hasn't taken a bigger hit over the past year or so given the slowdown in sales and things like the EV credit going away? -Paul a: Especially since, unlike with Lyft and Uber, you don't have to drive the car yourself. -Paul a: But EVs also are generally cheaper to maintain (no oil changes or timing belt replacements, less wear on brakes, etc) and cheaper to fuel up. Yeah, the margins might be better with a Corolla vs a Model Y, but I don't think the entire business model goes out the window with more expensive cars. -Paul a: Are they driving cheaper cars? Yeah, probably (although I've ridden in some Lyfts / Ubers where it was a decently nice SUV whose cost might be closer to a Model Y than you might think). -Paul "after president donald trump paused his “liberation day” tariffs in april, his trade adviser peter navarro promised that the administration would deliver “90 deals in 90 days.” but that deadline came and went wednesday with the white house 88 trade deals short."  ha.  wp link with paywall  ~a paul: "depreciation per mile were like 10x what I thought it was" is "depreciation per mile" your shorthand for total cost?  how are you calculating depreciation per mile?  how did you calculate 10x?  ~a paul:  "I really doubt it's like $2 per mile (roughly what Waymo is charging)"  yes i also doubt depreciation is $2 per mile.  on a cheap car, i'd expect something closer to 1/12th of that.  on a model y with fsd, i'd expect closer to 1/7th or 1/8th of that, but there are other costs.  ~a paul:  ... tolls $6 (included in the cost; so the $45 ride might be more or less for a toll).  $0 for parking.  $.50 for sales-tax/property-tax/dmv/inspection.  probably a few cents for cleaning/misc.  (since we're not counting "total" costs, i'll leave out societal costs and the portion of the income taxes that go to roads).  45*.50+9.45+2.50+1.80+2.25+6+0+.50=45.  ~a paul:  my example of someone driving a $28k car to the airport for $45. assuming a gas car because i don't know how much new batteries cost or last. uber takes 50%, but that probably includes car insurance. $9.45 payment for time, $2.50 depreciation (($28k-$8k for resale)/(120k miles)*15 miles), $1.80 gas ($.12/mile*15 miles; electricity will be cheaper), $2.25 maintenance ($.15/mile*15 miles), car insurance is included already, ...  ~a paul:  "Tons of people use their cars for Uber or Lyft because they think it's worth the money"  what?  1.  they're driving different cars.  they're driving cheaper cars.  2.  they're charging more than $0.20/mi:  much closer to $40-50 for a ride to the airport.  there is a huge giant gulf between $0.20/mi and $40-50 for a ride to the airport.  there's a huge gulf between a $45k+$8k model y, and whatever car lyft drivers use.  ~a paul:  "it's hard to ignore that I have been pretty wrong for 3+ months now"  same.  ~a a: And same thing with Tesla and Tesla owners. Yeah, cars depreciate, and they depreciate faster if you drive them more, but I really doubt it's like $2 per mile (roughly what Waymo is charging). It looks like Musk is claiming that costs might get down to $0.20 a mile for Tesla robotaxis eventually, which DOES seem like it would push up against depreciation costs some, but Musk tends to be overly optimistic. -Paul a: "i assume this debate has bored you?" Not necessarily, although this does seem like a rehash of our previous discussion where your estimates of depreciation per mile were like 10x what I thought it was. Can you at least admit that real life evidence seems to be against you? Tons of people use their cars for Uber or Lyft because they think it's worth the money. Google is betting huge amounts of money that this can be profitable... -Paul a: I think we're mostly in agreement about the near term future of the market.... but it's hard to ignore that I have been pretty wrong for 3+ months now. -Paul a: "i mean it's not literally deciding what kind of consensual interactions people engage in" It kind of is? It's literally saying that if I want to pay somebody to cut hair for $15 an hour I cannot do that. To answer your other questions... yeah, I kind of think that consensual interactions between people that don't harm anybody should generally be allowed. -Paul paul:  i think it’s mostly due to the deficit is a lost cause at this point.  I think markets are riding on the next best thing - more people keeping more of their money. - mig paul:  if it hasn't bored you, i'll always keep using this link as my one true source.  it has changed my life paul.  ~a paul:  in that case aren't you ignoring all of the other costs?  you at least agree depreciation per mile of a cheaper car will be lower than depreciation per mile on a more expensive car?  i assume this debate has bored you?    ~a paul:  "Any thoughts as to why?"  i am constantly asking myself this question.  i have not been timing the market, of course, but i am constantly worried that we at a very long term peak.  i don't know why, i don't know when, but my personal confidence in future s&p500 prices is very low.  ~a paul:  "why should the government get to dictate what kind of consensual interactions people engage in"  i mean it's not literally deciding what kind of consensual interactions people engage in.  or, if you think they are literally doing that, i assume you don't want there to be no taxes period.  or no laws (past theft and battery), period.  all drugs should be legal?  no traffic laws?  how far should we go?  ~a paul:  nyc has a higher cost of living.  much, much, much, higher  ~a a: "not all businesses are meant to survive a minimum wage change" But why should the government get to dictate what kind of consensual interactions people engage in? -Paul a: What's the big difference between DC and NYC? Both seem to be pretty high cost of living cities. -Paul paul:  also, even just at its core, not all businesses are meant to survive a minimum wage change.  ~a Question for the board: With the tariff chaos and deficit exploding BBB, I would expect the economy (and the market?) to have taken a bit of a hit. That hasn't seemed to happen yet. Any thoughts as to why? -Paul paul:  i don't think you have any shops in nyc.  i know i followed you through this hypothetical, but no, i don't want, $30 minimum wage.  no i don't want a $30 minimum wage in nyc.  and dc is not nyc.  ~a a: Which would turn a modestly profitable business into an extremely unprofitable one overnight. -Paul a: "i didn't have any clue how many people at your workplace worked for the tipped minimum wage" None work for the tipped minimum wage, but a $30 flat minimum wage across the board would roughly double our labor costs. Very rough estimate is that it would cost us an extra maybe half a million a year? -Paul a: The stat I read was that the ICE budget is now bigger than Russia’s military budget. — Xpovos a: "can we finally put to bed the whole thing about republicans being better for the debt and deficit spending compared to democrats and independents?" Why are you asking me? I've done nothing but agree with you that Republicans are awful with the debt and spending when they have the presidency and congress. -Paul lol, is this right?  ice is now bigger than the fbi, the us beureu of prisons, the dea, combined?  combined?!  ice now has a bigger budget than the marine corp?  ~a paul:  djt just got 46b for more wall.  170b total for detention beds and border security.  that is $1,300 in new us border spending per american household.  ~a paul:  welp.  the the obbba passed the senate now too?  chances are pretty high it'll make it back through the house.  can we finally put to bed the whole thing about republicans being better for the debt and deficit spending compared to democrats and independents?  it seems vance is now on the record as pro-deficit spending too.  according to pew (pew pew pew), 29% of americans are in favor of the bill.  ~a paul:  "You don't think doubling or tripling labor costs"  tripling?  i didn't have any clue how many people at your workplace worked for the tipped minimum wage, i'm not sure how nyc deals with tipped minimum wages, or the proposal to change the nyc *tipped* minimum wage, and i didn't know the dc minimum wage.  sorry.  ~a paul:  "I'm very confused by your 'if your car costs 1/3' comments as well".  you typically get lyft rides to the airport in a $22k corolla, not a $53k model y with fsd.  you at least agree depreciation per mile of a cheaper car will be lower than depreciation per mile on a more expensive car?  ~a paul:  "It seems very unlikely that it's going to have depreciated by hundreds of dollars as a result of those miles driven"  oh, i get it now.  yes, i agree if you rent your tesla out for a two hours, and it makes $200, the car won't depreciate $200.  (($200)*(175k miles)/($45k+$8k for fsd-$5k for resale)/(2 hours) = it would have to move at 360 mph).  but, in that case aren't you ignoring all of the other costs?  ~a a: "maybe even 25 in unrealistic for city-wide" The one-size-fits-all aspect is one of the big problems with minimum wages. Not all areas of a city can support that, not all jobs are worth paying that much... -Paul a: "that's surprising to me" Really? Current DC minimum wage is ~$17 an hour (~$10 an hour for tipped employees). You don't think doubling or tripling labor costs (which represents roughly half of our expenses) would put us out of business? -Paul a: It seems very unlikely that it's going to have depreciated by hundreds of dollars as a result of those miles driven. So I don't see how it isn't even close to possible to make money that way. -Paul a: "i don't follow, can you make an example please?" I'm very confused by your "if your car costs 1/3" comments as well. I'm just saying that if you can rent your Tesla out for a few hours and make a couple hundred dollars while it serves as a robotaxi... -Paul paul:  "We have public transportation and people still (often) choose Uber or taxis or driving their own car"  you're 100% right about the what, but not the why.  people don't use cars because they want to.  they use cars because the alternatives aren't given a fair shake.  federal/state/local money (almost) all goes to highways and road maintenance, and road expansion.  they use cars because of zoning.  they use cars because of parking.  ~a paul:  "for our DC salon a $30 minimum wage would pretty immediately put us out of business"  interesting.  that's surprising to me.  but, again, i focused on 25/hour.  and i mentioned manhattan.  dc is not manhattan.  you raise a good point:  that the minimum wage would probably become city-wide (manhattan is just one of the boroughs, so, with that in mind, maybe even 25 in unrealistic for city-wide).  ~a paul:  "I say that because I've paid ~$50 for a Lyft to an airport"  $50 for a ride to the airport seems reasonable to me.  was the driver driving a fsd model y?  if your car costs 1/3, your depreciation will be 1/3 per mile, right?  "So in order to not make money on a trip like that you would need the car to depreciate that fast solely due to the use involved"  i don't follow, can you make an example please?  ~a a: Like, if more people ditch Metro for robotaxis.... That's okay? It's probably for a reason (better experience, cheaper, etc). If for some reason robotaxis cause more people to take public transit... that's also okay? -Paul mig:  if you're asking a different question (how do you assess whether 30 is ok?).  i actually want 25/hour.  i do not want 30/hour.  the median individual income for manhattan was ~31/hour.  ($61,439/year in 2023).  ~a a: I'm not sure I understand your point about public transportation. We have public transportation and people still (often) choose Uber or taxis or driving their own car. Robotaxis wouldn't necessarily drastically change that. -Paul a: "no not in manhattan, probably not" Not all of NYC is Manhattan, though, right? I can't speak to Manhattan, and I know there are often differences for tipped employees, but for our DC salon a $30 minimum wage would pretty immediately put us out of business. -Paul a: So in order to not make money on a trip like that you would need the car to depreciate that fast solely due to the use involved. -Paul a: "you say "depreciate $50" as a straw man?" No, I say that because I've paid ~$50 for a Lyft to an airport and you said "you can't possibly make money and it isn't even close" for robotaxis. -Paul