we are all born astride a grave

a: "he is unpredictable, do you disagree?" Nope. 100% agree. But inflation can be pretty unpredictable too. -Paul paul:  i agree lowering the fed rate would increase home sales.  but i don't think they should lower the fed rate and i don't think increasing home sales was ever a goal:  the goal was always affordable housing if people want it.  which, like you, is something i don't think the government can provide.  but instead, affordable housing is something the government can fuck up (zoning, etc).  ~a paul:  his tarrifs on china are at 145%.  ok.  fine, if they stay at 145%, then i predict his four year average inflation will be 5% or greater.  ~a paul:  no, i refuse.  he is unpredictable, do you disagree?  my "huge and obvious" wording was under the assumption that he wouldn't u-turn.  sorry i didn't say that.  ~a a: "it'll likely be because he both illegally ignored congress and illegally ignored the supreme court" TIL that the President CAN'T just unilaterally fire the head of the Fed unless it's "for cause". -Paul a: It looks like Biden's was 4.95% over his 4 years? -Paul a: Oh, sorry, I missed that you were looking at total inflation over the entire term. Pick a number for that then. -Paul a: "that depends" Don't hedge now! You were making predictions of "huge and obvious inflation". What's your best guess on what Trump will do and what the result will be? If you had to set an over/under of inflation in.... 6 months? What would it be? -Paul a: "decreasing the fed rate isn't a silver bullet" Sure. Nothing is guaranteed, but I feel pretty confident that lower interest rates will NOT be detrimental to home sales and would likely increase them. -Paul paul:  "maybe it just hates the uncertainty around the idea of Trump nominating a flunky"  i disagree:  if he nominates *anyone* before 2028, it'll likely be because he both illegally ignored congress and illegally ignored the supreme court.  that's some uncertainty the market hates.  ~a paul:  "What do you think inflation will peak at in the coming months?"  that depends:  if trump goes back to his original plan (the one he presented on the sandwich boards), his 4-y-average inflation will be higher than biden's 4-y-average inflation (cpiu).  if trump does not do that, then the inflation could be lower.  ~a paul:  "unlock housing supply"  decreasing the fed rate isn't a silver bullet:  decreasing the fed rate will potentially increase the supply of cheaper homes . . . but will also increase the demand on expensive homes.  it will also encourage builders to tear down cheap homes to replace with expensive ones.  ~a a: I'm a little surprised there's been such a big reaction to Trump walking back his comments about Powell a bit. Does the market love Powell? Maybe. I think maybe it just hates the uncertainty around the idea of Trump nominating a flunky. -Paul a: "that is my prediction" What do you think inflation will peak at in the coming months? -Paul a: Oops, that was in reference to: "so, who should decide?" -Paul a: Hard money instead of fiat money. -Paul a: But there's also reason to be concerned about reducing rates and stoking inflation given other things going on. -Paul a: I was critical of his past decisions. I don't necessarily have a position on what he should do now. As I mentioned, there are reasons to think reducing rates is a good idea (unlock housing supply, help federal government refinance debt)... -Paul it's pretty clear that the market loves powell (and/or the market hates the constitutional crisis of trump ignoring both the legislative *and* the judiciary by firing the chair of the fed).  trump decides not to fire powell and the market goes up 7% over half of a day, jfc.  ~a paul:  "Have we seen huge and obvious inflation lately?"  seen?  that is my prediction.  we won't have information from the bls on inflation for a few more weeks but also i don't think the true cost of tariffs will take at least a year to be fully realized.  ~a paul:  "idea of the government trying to control the money supply"  what do you propose?  yes, having individual banks deciding their own interest rates is what we do now, but who prints new usd?  currently, the fed gets the new usd from the treasury and lends it out at the rate decided by the FRB?  you don't want the president or congress deciding how new dollars are printed + loaned?  so, who should decide?  ~a paul:  "it's probably impossible to tell right now because nobody knows what Trump is going to do next in terms of tariffs or whatever else"  you seem to question powell's decisions but then parrot his words?  powell (et al) thought keeping 4.3 going is smart until the economy figures out what direction it'll head after the dust settles from the (past and future) tariffs.  ~a a: Have we seen huge and obvious inflation lately? I haven't been following the numbers but I haven't seen any news stories on it and I assume I would've given the obvious ties to tariffs. -Paul a: But clearly we have a problem where a bunch of people are locked into super low 30 year mortgages and thus don't want to move which is creating a supply problem. -Paul a: Furthermore, it's probably impossible to tell right now because nobody knows what Trump is going to do next in terms of tariffs or whatever else. Also, in theory the federal reserve isn't responsible for things like housing affordability... -Paul a: Is 4.3 too high or low? I honestly don't know (and taking a step back, I'm not sure any one individual can really know, which is why I'm leery on the whole idea of the government trying to control the money supply). -Paul paul:  my prediction is that trump will blame the huge and obvious inflation on powell.  and his followers will eat that up.  the inflation will be mostly caused by the tariffs in my opinion.  ~a paul:  to ask this differently.  do you think 4.3 is too high?  or do you think it is too low?  (i will agree 0.1 was held for way too long, and powel was probably to blame, but i will not agree that 4.3 is obviously too high NOR that 4.3 is obviously too low).  ~a paul:  we did.  it's on the bets wagers spreadsheet.  ~a a: https://reason.com/2025/04/02/javier-mileis-free-market-reforms-are-starting-to-pay-off/ I don't remember if we ever came up with official metrics to use, but it sounds like Argentina is looking up. -Paul a: I think you know I've been complaining about the debt for awhile. -Paul a: I don't know the specifics of the debt and deficit right now, but I know it's really bad. It's been feeling really bad and unsustainable for like 17+ years and it just keeps getting even worse. -Paul a: At the same time, if the Treasury had been looking ahead, they probably should've been refinancing government debt when rates were low and instead they have to refinance a bunch of debt at higher rates soon. -Paul a: Well, for starters, I think the Fed was too late to raise rates (I know this sounds like the benefit of hindsight but I clearly remember thinking this before they raised rates). Then I think they raised rates too fast, which contributed to some of the bank failures. -Paul paul:  the new budget is supposed add 6t to the deficit?  did i read that right?  i feel like that can't be right, it seems too high.  that seems like a much bigger problem than the current federal reserve rate.  ~a paul:  "the recent actions of the Fed and the Treasury seem especially bad"  how so?  the interest rate looks pretty normal to me today, i'm kinda glad they aren't dropping rates yet.  ~a a: "also as libertarians" I'm not a huge fan of central banking and fiat currency in general, but the recent actions of the Fed and the Treasury seem especially bad. The government has a crap ton of debt it has to refinance soon at rates it hasn't had to deal with in a long time. A terrible fiscal situation is about to get loads worse. -Paul a: "the independent treasury has been a pretty good thing for the united states, imo." You mean independent federal reserve? That would be better than a political one, but I also think it's a bit of a myth considering the head of the federal reserve answers to the president. -Paul a: "any thoughts on jerome powell potentially being fired?" Not really? I think he messed up pretty badly with raising rates too late (and then raising them too quickly) but I also feel like the government / banking cartel probably shouldn't be playing around with the monetary system like it does and if Powell gets fired it would probably be for a stupid reason like Trump doesn't like the market dropping. -Paul a: I think (1) has to be the whole deal with tariffs because it's super bad and pretty stupid and impacts everybody (not just in the country, but the entire world), and will likely have long term repercussions which will last for awhile. (2) is probably the whole shipping people off to El Salvador without due process for speech we don't like.... and ignoring the courts while doing it. -Paul stock market has been crazy the past few weeks:  any thoughts on jerome powell potentially being fired?  the independent treasury has been a pretty good thing for the united states, imo.  i think they wrote about it in a they might be giants song.  i also as libertarians, i'm sure you're super against the government printing money at really low rates?  ~a Judge Gives Trump Administration 3 Days To Return Her From El Salvador Prison.  ~a mig:  ok.  ~a I’m aware the statistics are of course low of something happening but that doesn’t keep it out of my mind and that won’t be much comfort if an incident does ever occur. - mig I think there’s a difference worrying about imaginary harms from the mere act of Ben Shapiro speaking vs being concerned about the very real violence against tesla dealers and drivers going on around the nation. - mig mig:  i didn't mean to discount your feelings.  i apologize.  usually you are on the side of "fuck your feelings", so i guess i figured you felt that way about your own feelings too?  i found newer numbers, and maybe a more persuasive argument, but i feel like maybe you don't want to talk about this anymore.  lmk, otherwise i'll let it drop.  ~a a:  I’m not sure how statistics from 9-ish years ago are relevant?  Telling me my concerns are somehow not real feels a bit condensing and unhelpful.  And unpersuasive. - mig paul:  i have two questions for you:  what are the two worst things about the second trump administration so far?  there is no second question.  ~a my sister * has * a tesla and i'm not worried.  ~a mig:  your legit worries are not legit:  1 out of 10 domestic terrorists are left-wing extremists.  you shouldn't be worried about either, because both are very uncommon:  but, you should be much more worried of being hit by a right wing crazy in a car or with a gun.  ~a My neighbor’s daughter has a tesla and parks it next to Michelle’s car.  I’m legit worried about some lunatic shitter who thinks they’re saving democracy trying to pull something, which puts them and us at risk. - mig a:  we aren’t public figures.  I expect a lot more from elected public officials, who are.  Trump was rightly blasted for not condemning the charlottesville tiki torchers.  Its not unreasonable to hold these democrats to the same standard. - mig i haven't seen this reported in too many places (not on washington post or cnn?):  trump's liberation day "tariff board" is full of lies.  the numbers under "tariffs charged to the usa" is wrong.  and not wrong in the "oops, off by a little bit, lets get lost in the statistics", but wrong in the "you even lied about what direction the trade imbalance was in".  if we're supposed to remember/celebrate this day:  why ruin it all with lies?  ~a mig:  "silence is complicity"  hardly.  i haven't seen you condemn the vandalism.  i haven't condemned them.  do you think you, and i are complicit in the vandalism?  ~a paul:  yes they are in order and my two that aren't extra credit are illegal (and immoral, and harmful) actions against the media and illegal (and immoral, and harmful) actions against the judiciary.  ~a a: I'm going to assume yours are in order and that your two are the actions against media and judiciary. -Paul https://www.mediaite.com/tv/daily-shows-jordan-klepper-ribs-studio-audience-cheering-on-tesla-arson-wow-you-guys-like-petty-acts-of-domestic-terrorism/amp/ “Wow, you guys like petty acts of domestic terrorism, huh? Cool. Wow,” - mig a: I specifically said two in order to try to get people to focus on the worst ones. You cheated by picking too many. -Paul https://nypost.com/2024/12/10/us-news/ex-wapo-reporter-taylor-lorenz-says-she-felt-joy-over-assassination-of-unitedhealthcare-ceo-brian-thompson-feels-like-just and of course some think the murder was all fine and dandy. - mig As for Mangione it’s always “I don’t support murdering CEOs *but*” the but to me is an indicator that the first part isn’t very sincere. - mig