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[2015-08-27 09:52:39] - mig: it seems like all of his "math" assumes that college-grad women are unwilling to date or marry un-college-grad men. that seems like a completely unreasonable assumption. right? ~a
[2015-08-27 09:42:46] - "the question becomes how best to deal with a dating market in which men have too much leverage." is this fucking serious? what fucking "leverage"?- mig
[2015-08-27 09:39:41] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/08/26/hookup-culture-isnt-the-problem-facing-singles-today-its-math/ I'm still trying to process this article since it lies in complete contradictions to my own personal experiences. - mig
[2015-08-26 14:13:02] - a: When emotions have calmed down some? Not sure legislating should be done based on emotional reactions to tragedies like this. That's how we end up with stuff like the Patriot Act.
-Paul[2015-08-26 14:12:10] - a: Maybe until we know a little bit more about the shooter to determine if it was "obvious" that he shouldn't have been allowed to own a gun? I mean, if you are going to cite a tragedy to push for a particular policy, I think you are kind of obligated to show how that policy would have prevented said tragedy. - mig
[2015-08-26 13:58:26] - mig: if not now, then when? ~a
[2015-08-26 13:47:42] - http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/reporters-killed-on-air-alison-parker-adam-ward-terry-mcauliffe-response-121760.html never waste an opportunity to exploit a tragedy for your political pet causes. - mig
[2015-08-26 13:18:53] - To be honest, though, I'm a little surprised by the amount of coverage it appears to be getting. Lots of national coverage. I guess because of how it happened on live TV. Still, two people murdered is (sadly) not an uncommon thing in America. -Paul
[2015-08-26 12:11:34] - aaron: I heard about it on the news on the radio on the way into work. It's a little surreal. -Paul
[2015-08-26 11:35:16] - a: i kept hearing "near roanoake" as the location, so maybe the location isn't too far from 81 i guess? - mig
[2015-08-26 11:15:14] - aaron: i'm very confused. bridgewater -> 64E. wouldn't that we 81S? i'm not nit-picking . . . i'm just trying to understand if the bridgewater part is wrong, or the 81N part is wrong (or other . . . i guess he could have turned around). ~a
[2015-08-26 11:09:45] - http://wsls.com/2015/08/26/police-responding-to-incident-at-the-bridgewater-plaza/ here's an article, although it contradicts the stuff i said about the police being in pursuit so i'm not sure. always very weird to hear about something from national news and then to learn it's actually close by - aaron
[2015-08-26 11:07:30] - wow, did you guys hear about the shooting in bridgewater virginia today? a reporter and her cameraman were shot on live TV, allegedly by a disgruntled ex-employee, the suspect was being chased on I-81N and I-64E as of 38 minutes ago (10:30 EST) - aaron)
[2015-08-25 13:39:51] - mig: Other scandals have also included dead bodies and insider trading and cover-ups as well. I suppose the email server thing has a whiff of cover-ups too, but I don't know of any proof that Hilary was covering anything up with her personal server. Maybe we'll find out later. -Paul
[2015-08-25 13:38:35] - mig: Understood, and I don't mean to downplay the whole aspect of mishandling classified data, but it's also more of an abstract controversy where it's hard to show the harm. Benghazi had dead bodies and a potential cover-up (did she lie about it being about a spontaneous reaction to a film vs a pre-planned attack?)... -Paul
[2015-08-25 13:14:35] - paul: I understand that there's the perception of "just another scandal" but legally, mishandling classified data is really a big deal. The worst that was going to come out of the Benghazi hearings would be embarrassment. With the email thing, it's a very real possibility either Clinton or someone close to her could go to jail. - mig
[2015-08-25 13:05:12] - Daniel: So while the specifics about the email server are surprising to me, it isn't at all surprising that SOME scandal popped up around Clinton around this time. -paul
[2015-08-25 13:03:48] - Daniel: Yeah, that's a big part of why I can't stand Hilary (other than I disagree with her on almost every issue, it seems). She just always seems to have some (not insignificant) scandal around her that would sink a normal candidate but for whatever reason seems to not bother her much. -Paul
[2015-08-25 13:01:01] - Paul: I think thats more the issue for me and I would imagine a fair number of people. The "its just the current scandal" idea - there seems to always be a current scandal with Hilary. Maybe thats just my perception or bias on Clintons at this point but there seems to always be some background issue. -Daniel
[2015-08-25 12:41:19] - mig: I guess, but it seems to me that the email server thing is just the current scandal. It frankly doesn't seem all that more serious than Benghazi or some of the other Clinton scandals, but it just happens to be the one happening while she's actually campaigning for president. I feel like if this didn't come up then something else would've. -Paul
[2015-08-25 12:32:54] - paul: the benghazi thing though was/is losing steam. At worst, I think Benghazi would just be a little embarrassment for her, and certainly wouldn't cost her significant democrat support. This email thing, though is getting to be pretty consequential, not just for her campaign, but legally as well. - mig
[2015-08-25 12:18:00] - a: Fair enough on that point, but this is 0.00001% of that 25% of the population? I don't care about Duggar specifically, but about the ignorance of the American voter in general (and this totally circles back to my original point about how our democracy sucks because people are stupid
). -Paul[2015-08-25 12:15:58] - mig: Also, yeah, that was a surprisingly strong endorsement by the White House of Biden. -Paul
[2015-08-25 12:15:37] - mig: Mostly, I just want to gloat about foreseeing this collapse by the Clinton campaign (and yes, I'm well aware that we are far, far away from that right now). -Paul
[2015-08-25 12:15:02] - mig: I know it wasn't directed at me, but I mostly reject your assertion that these are bizarre circumstances. Yeah, the email server thing was unexpected, but if it wasn't this controversy, I'm sure Benghazi would still be in the news, and the other players in the game are not at all unexpected. -Paul
[2015-08-25 11:59:03] - paul: 25% of the republican party still believes that obama is a muslim born in kenya. these "irrelevant" people could decide if trump or jeb or whoever is going to be the republican nominee. to me it's worth 100x the attention than some repaired-mistakes some designee made doing their taxes. ~a
[2015-08-25 11:34:48] - daniel: so, I'm going to have to walk back my previous assertions of Clinton's inevitability now that Biden is (probably) getting into the race. Though in my defense, these are pretty bizarre circumstances that Clinton's campaign is buckling under. - mig
[2015-08-25 11:21:21] - paul: shots fired? - mig
[2015-08-25 11:19:16] - a: Maybe worry is the wrong word. I just don't think about him at all or care that he was outed as a cheater.To me, it's worth 1/100th of the attention that something like a treasury secretary cheating on his taxes should get. -Paul
[2015-08-25 11:14:45] - yeah you're right, of course. except, i'm not worried about him. ~a
[2015-08-25 11:12:37] - Off topic, but purely from an entertainment perspective, I'm super excited about the idea of an Obama-endorsed Joe Biden entering the race for the Democrats. Two establishment heavy-weights and the socialist with the hardcore popular support... the democratic race might start looking as entertaining as the republican race. -Paul
[2015-08-25 11:10:03] - a: Worrying about him seems like worrying about neo-nazis or the KKK... too irrelevant to worry about. -Paul
[2015-08-25 11:09:30] - a: Yeah, I don't know, I always find it super easy to ignore people like the Family Research Council because it seems like everybody else ignores them too. Nobody I know seems to take groups like that seriously and I don't know if they have any real legislative/lobbying success. -Paul
[2015-08-25 11:04:12] - the family research council, lobbies against pornography. they think pornography, the thing duggar says he's addicted to, should be illegal. ~a
[2015-08-25 11:02:47] - paul: i was reading his wikipedia article earlier. he was a giant creep who molested his sisters. THEN when he was caught, he kept doing it! now he spends his time telling the world how they should behave (executive director at the family research council which is just great). ~a
[2015-08-25 10:51:34] - a: Agreed, although I hardly know who this Josh Duggar guy is, so it's pretty easy for me to ignore him and not care about him being hypocritical.
-Paul[2015-08-25 10:45:14] - paul: i'm sympathetic. this is none of my business: this is none of anybodies business except the families involved and this information won't likely go just disappear. so, lots of people had their lives irreparably damaged and that SUCKS. i have a harder time being sympathetic to those that are also giant hypocrites: they say i have to act a way and they don't. ~a
[2015-08-25 10:31:41] - I don't know about the republican/democrat political aspect, but I have read a lot of stuff where people are loudly proclaiming that they have no sympathy for the victims in the hack because they're all cheating scum. I can certainly understand that POV, but I do think there's still plenty of room for sympathy for many people involved. -Paul
[2015-08-25 10:25:54] - mig: lol. "i have been the biggest hypocrite ever" ok, this is glee. ~a
[2015-08-25 10:22:44] - Causal works. Once again, English is fucking hard. -- Xpovos
[2015-08-25 10:18:37] - josh duggar is such a fucking weirdo. it doesn't surprise me one bit that he's on that site. . . . and that he's stupid enough to use his real name/email. ~a
[2015-08-25 10:11:10] - a: /shrug, i guess i read different media than you do? Most of what I've read on the leaks seem to focus (with a bit of glee) on the Josh Duggars of the world. - mig
[2015-08-25 10:11:05] - i'll set a perception. many of the members are likely democrats. however, most of the time i hear someone talking about how we're supposed to behave in bed and who they think god says we're supposed to love, it's a republican. so at least (in this case anyways) the democrats aren't being big hypocrites. ~a
[2015-08-25 10:07:01] - who's perception? i didn't see that anywhere. ~a
[2015-08-25 10:00:48] - paul: the problem I think is the perception that the only people hurt by this are evil male cheaters (who are probably republicans!), no other considerations are really given that some members may not necessarily fit that archetype. - mig
[2015-08-25 09:58:18] - . . . depending on how you want to read the sentence. ~a
[2015-08-25 09:58:00] - causal . . . not exactly the best sentence i've ever written. causal, with-cause, or caused-by
[2015-08-25 09:57:20] - xpovos: casual wasn't the word i used.
~a[2015-08-25 09:39:18] - Ugh, I so wish I had some liquid funds yesterday to buy. Obviously hindsight is 20/20, and we very well could see another fall, but I think if I had some money laying around I definitely would've picked up some stuff. -Paul
[2015-08-25 09:09:57] - a: Yeah, I felt a little slimy just throwing out the "might" to absolve myself of having to show any causation, but I thought it was something interesting to consider (the real world consequences of this hack) and there wasn't more information to go on. -Paul
[2015-08-25 08:58:59] - a: I think "casual" wasn't the word you wanted there. -- Xpovos
[2015-08-24 22:22:59] - http://kernelmag.dailydot.com/issue-sections/staff-editorials/13089/cards-against-humanity-outrage/ i'm starting to see more and more articles of this ilk. Looks like the special snowflake SJWs have found their new target of ire. - mig
[2015-08-24 17:11:02] - http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/24/politics/joe-biden-president-campaign-2016-election-run/ so, Obama kind of has to endorse Biden if he runs, right? - mig
[2015-08-24 16:35:35] - on the other hand, i can imagine a ton of causal divorces and suicides coming out of this breach. ~a
[2015-08-24 16:25:19] - paul said "might". the link didn't say "cause" either. anyways, i agree with you, 500k is a pretty big user base, and it's not like the leak was yesterday. what's more, the ashley madison user-base is hardly representative. these are people who might otherwise have problems at home. ~a
[2015-08-24 16:23:33] - daniel: Good question. All I know is that apparently it warranted comment by the cops as potential causation. -Paul
[2015-08-24 16:21:55] - Paul: Did it cause two suicies? Or did two people out of a crap load commit suicide? Like if we take the same amount of people and wait a week will two of them randomly have committed suicide? -Daniel
[2015-08-24 16:10:10] - http://arstechnica.com/security/2015/08/ashley-madison-offers-500000-reward-amid-reports-of-member-suicides/ The Ashley Madison hack might have led to some suicides... -Paul
[2015-08-24 16:00:26] - http://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/2015/08/24/6-things-you-should-know-about-a-stock-market-corr.aspx And here's the same message in text form instead of video. -Paul
[2015-08-24 15:58:13] - https://www.periscope.tv/w/aKtpazcyNTY3NzZ8NjkwNDg1NzBolOZSAQEgFYqmSa9XXSIz7OSZ-z0J660U0zqXd-Wngg== Shameless plug, but I pretty much agree whole-heartedly with the Motley Fool perspective on this dip. -Paul
[2015-08-24 12:47:56] - we still need another 7% to be up for the week. ~a
[2015-08-24 12:42:33] - paul:
~a[2015-08-24 12:42:19] - daniel: but to answer your questions, i'd say "yes", to the second question. but i'd also say "yes" to the first question. ~a
[2015-08-24 12:41:17] - a: "if buying stocks right now was a for-sure-bet, the market would not be down". Completely tongue in cheek, but the market is actually almost back into positive territory today, which is pretty amazing. -Paul
[2015-08-24 12:39:59] - daniel. iow, 1929 wasn't "good" for the economy because of the inevitable recovery. ~a
[2015-08-24 12:39:02] - daniel: ok, let me try this. i think many small dips every year are much better than huge dips once per decade (2008). ~a
[2015-08-24 12:37:31] - a: You don't think the recovery makes up for the dip? Or you just think if there was no dip ever then obviously the stock would be worth even more than the timeline where there was a dip/recovery? -Daniel
[2015-08-24 12:36:03] - yeah, dollar cost averaging is a good and simple strategy imo. it's not even (really) a strategy you even need to fully understand or follow strictly. it's all much better than the opposite: keeping everything in cash, and then doing a giant buy. ~a
[2015-08-24 12:34:21] - a: Holy crap, and Netflix is up 4% now. Crazy swings. -Paul
[2015-08-24 12:33:50] - a: And if I can gather up some extra cash, I might try buying individual stock positions like Netflix if I see any really nice opportunities. -Paul
[2015-08-24 12:32:27] - a: I'm certainly not saying now is a for-sure-bet. Chances are, the market will go down for days/weeks/months more. Calling a bottom is basically impossible. What I try to do is, if I can afford it, to bump up my 401(k) contribution so that I just keep dollar cost averaging down on a consistent basis over the course of months. -Paul
[2015-08-24 12:30:41] - a: Yeah, I saw that Netflix was down 11% early this morning and I really wanted to buy, but by the next time I checked, it had recovered a bunch. -Paul
[2015-08-24 12:24:54] - paul: for some perspective, i did make a buy order this morning (nflx). i'm wishing i had ignored some work i had, and made it 10 minutes earlier though. ~a
[2015-08-24 12:23:26] - paul: i agree now is (probably) a good time to invest if you have the cash. on the other hand, the market is down: if buying stocks right now was a for-sure-bet, the market would not be down
~a[2015-08-24 12:20:43] - a: If we're looking at a broader view of things, I think I would agree with you that this dip probably isn't the best sign of the health of the economy (US or world). Things have been crazy in China and Europe has been in trouble for a long long time now. I think this is more of a lagging indicator, though, than a cause of problems. -Paul
[2015-08-24 12:19:21] - a: Does that mean the economy is falling apart or the federal reserve is making mistakes or the world is coming to an end? Maybe. But purely from my retirement fund perspective, the fact that my portfolio is down whatever percentage now is largely irrelevant and the drop in stocks means I can dollar cost average down. -Paul
[2015-08-24 12:17:47] - a: I think we're approaching this from slightly different places. I'm looking at it as a purely investment thing. From that perspective, what I'm seeing as a long term investor is that it's a lot cheaper to invest in companies that I like right now than it was a week or two ago. -Paul
[2015-08-24 12:14:59] - paul: i have issue with both #1 and #2. #1, yes i agree that downswings are unavoidable, but i'd go further: downswings can be decreased in size by making some changes. #2, "the recovery afterwards make up for the dip" yeah, so, we'll probably just have to agree to disagree on this one. ~a
[2015-08-24 11:55:25] - I guess the second assumption is a little dumb considering the first. The first is the important thing, I guess. -Paul
[2015-08-24 11:54:09] - a: Well, I'm working on two assumptions that I completely agree can't really be proven: (1) That these sorts of downswings are basically inevitable and unavoidable (the market can't just keep going up relentlessly forever with some dips) and (2) These dips don't negatively affect the long term performance because the recovery afterwards make up for the dip. -Paul
[2015-08-24 11:42:32] - daniel: in your two scenarios, you're assuming it'll hit the same final price/share after the upswing. i am assuming not-that. i am assuming that a crash causes the market to be hurt and upswings will always be worse than not crashing in the first place. ~a
[2015-08-24 11:40:44] - "then I'm not sure what we're comparing to" yeah there is no comparison: assuming we can't create a perfect simulator of the world. take whatever caused 2008, and make that not happen. now compare the two.
~a[2015-08-24 11:38:21] - a: If paul is investing a set amount each paycheck then the increased purchasing power lets him purchase a greater number of shares. Then when the market rebounds he has more exposure to the upswing. I think thats the idea. -Daniel
[2015-08-24 11:36:25] - a: net negative compared to what? If the market never had any downturns sure but that doesn't happen so then I'm not sure what we're comparing to? Yes its not the best possible scenario but I don't think it will end up causing people to end up at a different end point than they expected. -Daniel
[2015-08-24 11:28:36] - "It's a good thing for my 401(k) and IRA and other investments that I don't plan to tap into for 10+ years" i disagree. it's something that we can't test, so i can't give you data. i just disagree based on my . . . hunches? . . . about economics. ~a
[2015-08-24 11:27:24] - paul: "as they are ultimately up big when I retire" well that's something that big dips might affect. anyways, even if they are up big, stuff like 2008 will *IMO* have a net-negative effect on your final numbers. ~a
[2015-08-24 11:25:28] - a: How about this? It's a good thing for my 401(k) and IRA and other investments that I don't plan to tap into for 10+ years. It's not so much a good thing for the greater economy as a whole (possibly). -Paul
[2015-08-24 11:22:55] - daniel: i understand it's expected. i understand that it's no a major problem. but, to say that it's a good thing when stocks go down big is a bit of an overstatement. 2008 was bad, imo. ~a
[2015-08-24 10:35:38] - a: The way I figure it, big dips mean I can buy the stocks I want more cheaply. I don't really care what my stocks do in the next ten years as long as they are ultimately up big when I retire. -Paul
[2015-08-24 10:26:45] - I think a drop like this would only really be bad for someone who was about to retire / had just retired and still had significant exposure to stocks so that they didn't have the benefit of the long term to recover. -Daniel
[2015-08-24 10:25:46] - a: I don't its a 'good thing' but I don't think its an unexpected thing. I think over a 30+ year window you would expect several different times for something like this to happen and that previous instances like these are included when people talk about the long term return rates of stocks. -Daniel
[2015-08-24 10:09:39] - even as a long term investor decades from retirement, i'm not so sure this is a good thing unless you have *lots* of money out of the market ready to invest now. assuming not, though, it is neutral at best, right? small dips like this one is par for the course, but IMO big drops like in 08 probably hurts the overall performance of the market on a long time scale. ~a
[2015-08-24 10:03:10] - a: Yeah, possibly even worse than last week. I obviously never like to see my stocks go down, but as a long term investor that is still decades away from retirement, I'm looking forward for some buying opportunities brought up by the pull-back. I only wish I had more money in cash to take advantage. -Paul
[2015-08-24 09:41:17] - looks like we're going to take another ass-kicking on the market today. ~a
[2015-08-24 09:36:59] - a: Well, he had told me the day before that he was dropping out, so it wasn't just that he didn't show up. But, yes, big thanks for Max's recruiting skills. -Paul
[2015-08-24 09:27:11] - thank bejesus for max's recruiting skillz. ~a
[2015-08-24 09:26:26] - paul: apparently not. ~a
[2015-08-21 16:50:56] - a: Not sure I remember who Alex Cromwell is. If they said they're coming to frisbee, can I rely on them? -Paul
[2015-08-21 15:00:34] - i forgot about cain's affair. ~a
[2015-08-21 14:43:46] - I will take Trump seriously if he starts winning primaries/caucuses in 2016 -Daniel
[2015-08-21 14:29:00] - xpovos: also, i mentioned this to paul earlier, but the fact he hasn't really had to spend any of his own money makes me question whether he'd stay in the race for the long haul (let alone run as an independent). To me, it makes his thought that CNN should pay him to show up to the debate a little telling. - mig
[2015-08-21 14:25:16] - xpovos: Cain faded mostly due to a rather ugly affair scandal that forced him to suspend his campaign. He still wasn't going to win the nomination, but he probably would have lasted maybe a month or 2 were it not for that. - mig
[2015-08-21 14:20:01] - Crap... that was the parlayed, not the parleyed. Damn, English is hard. -- Xpovos
[2015-08-21 14:19:24] - Cain got a good boost from a debate and then started to gain name recognition and then parleyed that into front-runner status, which he retained for almost exactly one month before fading and eventually disappearing. As long as Trump doesn't go more than two months, particularly since this is earlier in the primary period than Cain's bubble, I'm back to not worrying.
[2015-08-21 14:18:01] - The short version is that Trump emerged from middle of the pack to clear front-runner about 3 weeks ago according to RCP's meta-poll data. He's remained as the clear front runner since then, but has actually taken a point or two dip in recent days. This tracks very well with, e.g. Herman Cain from 2012. -- Xpovos
[2015-08-21 14:17:01] - Earlier today and yesterday I was starting to go a bit into panic mode regarding Trump. I accepted he was the flash in the pan for this time period, but like most others, I assumed he'd just fade. But he'd been lingering longer than I expected. So I went digging for actual data to see how long a reasonable period as front-runner might be. -- Xpovos
[2015-08-21 12:58:08] - mig: Well, I definitely don't think Trump's position in the polls will last, and polling at these points is somewhat silly since it's largely based on name recognition and media coverage, but I don't think most of Trump's support is from people joking around. I wish it was, but I don't think it is. -Paul
[2015-08-21 12:45:54] - re: deez nuts. Doesn't this also call into question Trump's position in the polls? If a significant portion of people are willing to put their "support" to a fake candidate, why not also an acutal candidate who's clearly running a joke of a campaign. - mig
[2015-08-21 11:25:29] - paul: question 1: no. (yes to "ever"). question 2: no it won't come to that. ~a
[2015-08-21 10:06:51] - a: Does one group still control 51% of the bitcoins (or did they ever)? I can understand how things can be blown out of proportion, and I don't fully understand how the split would work, but wouldn't this have the potential to have some pretty serious repercussions? Will there just be a new crypto-currency or will the amount of bitcoins now be somehow split? -Paul
[2015-08-21 09:39:57] - paul: as usual, i'm not too worried. just like the 51% thing, it'll resolve itself in a few months or so and there will be something else "dire" we're freaking out about. it'll affect the temporary price (since the money supply is so low), but not much else. that's my guess anyways. ~a
[2015-08-21 09:29:06] - http://i.imgur.com/h9oCX0k.jpg a still from the current wow expansions's cinematic intro in 4k res. Impressive amount of detail. - mig
[2015-08-20 16:54:38] - Xpovos: "their liberty or even life" is the text for the link. -Paul
[2015-08-20 16:54:00] - Xpovos: I had forgotten that it was a link within that article to another article. There was a link that talked about people losing their life. Try clicking on that one. -Paul
[2015-08-20 16:28:29] - Paul: I read your firstlook link, I didn't see anything about this in there. Am I really bad at contextual reading all of a sudden, or was there a different link? -- Xpovos
[2015-08-20 16:26:55] - a: Speaking of bitcoin, what do you think of the possibly upcoming split? -Paul
[2015-08-20 16:21:48] - xpovos: Here's a link to it: https://twitter.com/srhbutts/status/634169099568836608 -Paul
[2015-08-20 16:21:05] - Xpovos: It was from my link about Ashley Madison. Short story is a gay person was using the site to arrange encounters. Person lives in place where homosexuality is illegal. Person now fears for their life and is trying to get a plane ticket out. -Paul
[2015-08-20 16:05:43] - mig: What reddit comment? -- Xpovos
[2015-08-20 16:02:51] - a: Without doing much research into it, I think that would be around the cutoff point. Ideally it would be lower, and I'm not sure I would be okay with 1%, but I'm pretty sure over 1% would be too high for me. -Paul
[2015-08-20 15:58:13] - yeah, i remember talking about it before. i'm just wondering what your definition of "little" is in this case? 1%/year? is that low enough? ~a
[2015-08-20 15:54:52] - a: Yeah, I know. I think we had a discussion about this before, but a lot depends on the management fees. I'm willing to pay a little premium (key word being "little") for some safety there. -Paul
[2015-08-20 15:45:51] - understood. that's fair. but it costs! how much are you willing to pay for such a service? for comparison, gld is 0.2%/year (fair) and gbtc is 2.0%/year (yikes!). ~a
[2015-08-20 15:34:09] - a: I want the exposure to bitcoin but with the safety of established investing vehicles. I want to be able to invest X thousand dollars in bitcoin without worrying that a hacker/house fire/lost phone/etc is going to wipe it all out with no recourse. -Paul
[2015-08-20 15:31:41] - why do you want an etf? serious question . . . is it so you can use tax-sheltered funds? or is it because you don't want to worry about theft? iow, what's wrong with just normal ownership? ~a
[2015-08-20 15:01:55] - a:
Point me in the direction of the ETF. -Paul[2015-08-20 14:57:27] - try bitcoin . . . any day that you don't gain/lose 20% of your investment is "meh". ~a
[2015-08-20 14:40:52] - Yeesh, today is a good day to not look at your stock market investments.
-Paul[2015-08-20 14:00:04] - a: also, it's enough evidence in of itself to warrant an investigation most likely, where they can find other evidence of adultery. - mig
[2015-08-20 13:58:59] - a: if they only require a "preponderance of evidence" standard, I can see the military treating merely having an account on the site as being sufficient evidence for a discharge/dismissal. - mig
[2015-08-20 13:51:02] - a: No, but it looks pretty damning if you have credit card charges too. I'm also not sure the military has the same burden of proof as the courts when it comes to dismissal. -Paul
[2015-08-20 13:49:34] - that is no proof of adultery. ~a
[2015-08-20 13:48:54] - a: If they found your information from the Ashley Madison leak. Apparently a number of people used their .mil addresses. -Paul
[2015-08-20 13:45:28] - how would the military prove you were an adulterer? ~a
[2015-08-20 13:29:41] - mig: I read another article where somebody was poring through the data and said there were members who listed "male for male" and lived in countries where homosexuality is illegal, so I totally believe it. I can't remember if it was in that article or not, but there was also talk about how adultry can be cause for dismissal from the military. -Paul
[2015-08-20 13:13:45] - paul: if that reddit comment is actually a real thing, that's pretty fucking scary prospect of the Ashley Madison leaks that I certainly didn't consider. - mig
[2015-08-20 12:35:06] - paul: i was pretty sure Wisconsin was supposed to be on the schedule this year, but see it's been moved back a few years. - mig
[2015-08-20 12:27:26] - mig: Honestly, I don't know. The Ohio State game is the only one I was sure about. -Paul
[2015-08-20 12:05:30] - paul/xpovos: when did Purdue get on the schedule for this year? Wasn't Tech supposed to play Wisconsin? - mig
[2015-08-20 11:57:27] - https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/08/20/puritanical-glee-ashley-madison-hack/ I thought this was an interesting take on the glee some people have had over the Ashley Madison hack. -Paul\
[2015-08-20 09:17:47] - xpovos: i thought senator nuts handled himself very well at the debate - aaron
[2015-08-20 01:46:13] - Either 9% of the population votes in primary polling ironically, or there's the first 9% we probably should knock off the voter rolls. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-grows-lead-in-nc-gop-leads-most-match-ups.html -- Xpovos
[2015-08-19 17:02:28] - i will, thanks. ~a
[2015-08-19 16:47:25] - a: Ultimate Frisbee email is out. I didn't send it to the people at the end of the list that you labelled as "new" and "not sure". If you want to invite them, though, please feel free. -Paul
[2015-08-19 14:28:50] - aaron: seems like a more humorous version of "Captain Obvious" from the hotels.com ads. - mig
[2015-08-19 13:30:36] - there's this troll "ken m" who posts inane provocative comments on facebook and news sites. basically a comment troll. but he's weirdly popular and the more of his comments i read the more i enjoy his sense of humor - aaron
[2015-08-19 13:29:14] - http://i.imgur.com/XtHPcAOl.jpg when you think about it, we know less about the ocean than we know about our own immediate vicinity - aaron
[2015-08-19 12:17:19] - paul:
i saw that today! you could argue that https://fold.it/portal/ is the video game equivalent and it actually worked really well. i don't think it's super farfetched - aaron[2015-08-19 11:01:34] - http://xkcd.com/1566/ I really need to trick Aaron like this. I would go from owing thousands of dollars to the government owing me tens of thousands.
-Paul[2015-08-18 16:18:37] - Who should vote is a central theme of a very interesting book I've recommend people read on many occasions. Universal suffrage seems like a good idea until you're forced to deal with the results. -- Xpvoos
[2015-08-18 15:26:34] - I guess my overall point is that while democracy is probably the least bad form of government, it's still bad. So we should protect ourselves by making government small so it's not easy for it to screw over people's lives and trying to expand the number of people who vote (without somehow making them better informed) is just likely to make things worse. -Paul
[2015-08-18 15:24:45] - a: Well, if you already think voters are idiots, I guess there isn't much more to learn. I think a lot of people don't believe that, though. Why do you think the non-voters would make any better of a decision? -Paul
[2015-08-18 15:17:09] - yes it's anecdotal, and i'm not even sure what i'm supposed to learn from the story. that voters are idiots? ok, i know i've suggested this before, but it becomes less and less of a joke every time i say it: we should ask that *only* the people that *don't* vote pick our leaders. ~a
[2015-08-18 15:06:26] - a: It's anecdotal, but I thought the following tweet was interesting: "A grounding experience: Asking an Iowan who he last caucused for. One tried to tell me he liked "Johnson, from Iowa," meaning Tim Pawlenty." For those who don't know, Pawlenty was the governor of Minnesota.
-Paul[2015-08-18 15:01:25] - a: Because I associate being informed with caring, and I figure mostly only people who care vote. I think people like Miguel (informed and interested in the process but don't vote) are rare. -Paul
[2015-08-18 14:57:59] - paul: what makes you think that the informed people are the ones that typically vote? ~a
[2015-08-18 14:36:19] - Daniel: And why I think it's silly to encourage uninformed people to vote. In theory, these are the informed people who are putting Trump in front of the polls... -Paul
[2015-08-18 14:35:43] - Daniel: Dictatorship with me in charge?
More seriously, I don't know if there is a better form of government over the long term (it's the best of a bad bunch). It's less that I have a better form of government in mind, it's more that I think this is a great example of why we should keep government small to minimize the damage... -Paul[2015-08-18 14:26:46] - ah, it appears the keezel doesn't host VPNs (it's not peer-to-peer). ignore my last comment. ~a
[2015-08-18 14:24:14] - xpovos: it doesn't support tor out of the box . . . which i guess could be a good or a bad thing. here's the deal, being an exit-node on a VPN could have plenty of huge legal issues: what happens when N% of the users inevitably use a keezel to do illegal stuff? ~a
[2015-08-18 14:23:18] - daniel: there's the cononundrum - Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others... - mig
[2015-08-18 14:05:08] - Anyone heard of this? Any thoughts on it? https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/keezel-online-freedom-for-every-device-everywhere#/story -- Xpovos
[2015-08-18 13:55:55] - Paul: What gov system would you want if you mistrust democracy? -Daniel
[2015-08-18 13:28:46] - Paul: You assume our intellectual elites want us to believe we can choose for ourselves rather than being presented with bandwagonning and sloganeering. How are they supposed to maintain control if there's more than two possible outcomes? -- Xpovos
[2015-08-18 10:31:00] - mig: Yeah, this seems like a no-brainer to me. Why isn't somebody smart like Nate Silver doing this?
-Paul[2015-08-18 10:30:29] - mig: For example, it's not that helpful to know that Trump is the clear front-runner right now if he's potentially the last choice of everybody who doesn't support him. It's more important to be in everybody's top 3 or so. -Paul
[2015-08-18 10:30:20] - paul: oh i misunderstood you. I thought you were talking about the general election, not the primaries. Yes, polling for primaries would make much more sense doing it in a runoff fashion rather than just asking for just people's #1 choice. - mig
[2015-08-18 10:28:39] - mig: Understood, but our primaries basically aren't FPTP in the sense that as the process goes on, people tend to drop out, and the primaries are what these polls are measuring now. -Paul
[2015-08-18 10:26:56] - paul: I think the problem is that since our electoral system is FPTP there's no point to really doing runoff polling. - mig
[2015-08-18 10:08:02] - This got me to thinking a bit, though. Why don't pollsters use instant runoff voting techniques when it comes to doing these polls for presidential nominees. Unlike the general election, the primaries actually DO run more like instant runoff voting where people will drop out and their supporters then have to go to their #2 choice. -Paul
[2015-08-18 10:06:16] - http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/18/politics/donald-trump-presidential-poll-debate/index.html Beating a dead horse, but this is exactly why I don't want to encourage more people to vote and why I mistrust democracy.
I know he's not going to be the nominee, but the fact that he's lasted this long and frankly only gained steam is disturbing enough. -Paul[2015-08-14 14:48:46] - Paul: If you're not the beacon of pop music palatability anymore, either we are really getting old, or maybe this is finally the death knell for crappy mainstream music? -- Xpovos
[2015-08-14 14:36:22] - Apparently both the month AND the year.
-Paul[2015-08-14 14:29:34] - http://reason.com/blog/2015/08/14/breaking-ron-paul-endorses-son-rand-as-b File this under the least surprising presidential endorsement of the month year.
-Paul[2015-08-14 14:05:53] - yes. ~a
[2015-08-14 13:37:48] - a: Right, but didn't two of those move (far,far) away? I would've included Janie, but I don't know how able they are to get babysitting so both of them can play. -Paul
[2015-08-14 13:29:08] - well the old crowd definitely included mark t, vinnie (heh), and janie. ~a
[2015-08-14 13:20:56] - mig: Okay, cool. So, by my count, we could get enough for a game with just the inner circle (a term I'm defining now) as long as everybody showed. Aaron, Adrian, Amy, Daniel, Miguel, Milazzo, Paul, Tim. Adding Randy and potentially some others increases the margin for error. Am I missing anybody? -Paul
[2015-08-14 13:19:27] - paul: done. lmk if you want any more info. ~a
[2015-08-14 13:14:46] - paul: i'll play ultimate. also i have a few email addresses of some new people to add to the list . . . i guess i'll do that now. ~a
[2015-08-14 12:41:53] - paul: ultimate - possibly. basketball ... not really. Randy was actually asking about ultimate yesterday. - mig
[2015-08-14 12:36:05] - mig: Question (and I'm not trying to be accusatory), but are you interested in playing basketball or ultimate anymore? I was trying to count how many people from the old group who might still be interested to see if we conceivably had enough for a game before summer ends. -Paul
[2015-08-14 12:32:11] - Though honestly, as long as the main writers for the show remain, it could work, as long as Noah is capable of making the deliveries (probably my biggest complaint with the Nightly Show right now). - mig
[2015-08-14 12:30:55] - a: well i'd like to at least how he runs the show. You are probably right, given how TDS and Stewart are pretty much inseparable at this point and it might have been better for Comedy Central to just end the show. - mig
[2015-08-14 12:26:09] - september 28th. i'm not too excited: i kinda wish they'd just end the show. i might just stop watching, who knows. ~a
[2015-08-14 11:03:02] - so when does Trevor Noah start hosting TDS? I've sort of soured on TDS but am interested to see how Noah will run the show. - mig
[2015-08-14 09:41:28] - I feel like such an old man. I'm going through the top 50 songs in the US list on Spotify and keep thinking "this song sucks".
-Paul[2015-08-13 22:21:37] - http://www.buzzfeed.com/hayesbrown/are-bad-memes-an-impeachable-offense-just-asking I mean the meme hijacking is really fucking awful but did the WH really create a twitter account just to promote the Iran Deal? - mig
[2015-08-13 10:53:33] - Daniel: Awesome, thanks. I tried finding the information myself but found what I considered conflicting information (probably because it didn't specify federal vs state). -Paul
[2015-08-13 10:15:51] - Paul: http://www.savingforcollege.com/intro_to_529s/name-the-top-7-benefits-of-529-plans.php #1 says contributions are not deductible for federal taxes but earnings grow tax free. http://www.virginia529.com/features-and-benefits/tax-advantaged/index.php?gclid=COTWhbSfpscCFYckgQodWb8BoQ says you get up to 4k deduction on state tax. -Daniel
[2015-08-13 10:09:24] - mig: It just sounded like a Kim Jong Il kind of thing to do. "I'm a great leader. I know because I crushed this other person at golf. I got a hole in one the first time I played!". -Paul
[2015-08-13 10:05:39] - paul: I think it's amusing they actually did play golf together, I thought after reading Trump's statement that it was something he just made up, because he tends to do that sort of thing. - mig
[2015-08-13 09:51:55] - http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/12/new-rand-paul-video-basically-calls-donald-trump-a-closet-democrat/ "Senator Paul does not mention that after trouncing him in golf I made a significant donation to the eye center with which he is affiliated.". I love that line. I have no idea why. -Paul
[2015-08-12 23:01:35] - http://www.mediaite.com/online/tom-brady-courtroom-sketch-is-the-stuff-of-nightmares/ - mig
[2015-08-12 17:19:49] - Also, I really really hate the complexity of the tax code. I feel like it represents 30% of the complexity in my life. -Paul
[2015-08-12 16:45:59] - Does anybody here know if 529 plan contributions are tax deductible? -Paul
[2015-08-12 15:23:48] - Yeah, the Webb and Gilmore ones are hilarious. I think both have raised $0. -Paul
[2015-08-12 15:23:20] - aaron: Wow, that's impressive. The majority of my top 10 appear to be places to eat.
-Paul[2015-08-12 15:19:55] - paul: "Then there's the money. Webb raised $0 in the second quarter of the year." oooh! look out world
- aaron[2015-08-12 15:19:46] - Paul: The Jim Webb version was funny. "He has raised ZERO DOLLARS in the second quarter". lol -Daniel
[2015-08-12 15:16:14] - http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/12/my-candidate-is-a-juggernaut-that-cannot-be-stopped/ I enjoyed this little tool from the Washington Post. -Paul
[2015-08-12 15:04:14] - paul: your house is my 6th most visited place
- aaron[2015-08-12 13:31:07] - Daniel: I don't know if the information is useful in any way, but it's kind of neat (to me) to see lists of places I've been most often and other stuff. -Paul
[2015-08-12 13:27:28] - My timeline is empty cause I don't tell google location history. It worth turning on? -Daniel
[2015-08-12 13:17:32] - mig: It'll definitely be interesting to see. Hillary is certainly looking a lot weaker now than a few months ago thanks to this email server controversy and Bernie Sanders' unexpected strength. -Paul
[2015-08-12 13:16:53] - Aaron: Wow, that's super neat. Also, a little sad that a McDonalds is my 6th most visited place.
-Paul[2015-08-12 12:25:52] - https://maps.google.com/locationhistory/b/0 i hadn't used this google feature in awhile but i think it's gotten better. it used to kind of tell you you know, "you were at GPS coordinate 38° 77° yesterday!" but now it's like, "hey you haven't been to your favorite sushi restaurant since July 25th" - aaron
[2015-08-12 12:00:05] - paul: the legal part is probably the key. If this becomes a full fledged FBI probe this could very much carry into the general election season, and I can't see how that wouldn't be a factor in the general election. - mig
[2015-08-12 11:51:38] - don't face any sort of criminal penalties. - mig
[2015-08-12 11:51:03] - paul: right, but I think there's a very real possibility of criminal charges happening. Like I said before, the government treats this kind of thing as a really big fucking deal. Even if we are talking about the Clintons here, I'll be really surprised if either herself or one of her state dept aides (who are now her campaign aides) ...
[2015-08-12 11:30:26] - Aaron: Oh, ok. That's different. Gurkie had said he was in town this month (but then that apparently got canceled). This appears to be something new.
-Paul[2015-08-12 11:24:44] - paul: i got an e-mail from stephen 3 hours ago saying he'd be in town september 24-27! so maybe his plans got uncancelled - aaron
[2015-08-12 11:21:43] - mig: Frankly, I don't see the email thing doing much in terms of changing whether people will vote for her in a general election. The Clinton's seem to be pretty teflon covered when it comes to scandals and popularity. It seems like a bigger deal in terms of legal trouble. -Paul
[2015-08-12 11:03:56] - Yeah, that whole "top secret" e-mails is something to be watch. Everyone here at work is well versed that just "vanilla" top secret info is a really big fucking deal if gets spilled out. Clinton's emails were probably TS/SCI which is an even bigger fucking deal. - mig
[2015-08-12 11:00:03] - Aaron: Is Stephen still going to be in town sometime soon? I thought that had been canceled... -Paul
[2015-08-12 10:59:56] - Let me clarify on Sanders. Yes, he's a legitimate contender right now per se in that he has a credible campaign going (as opposed to O'Malley, Chafee, and Webb), but I still don't buy him as a legitimate threat to Clinton just yet. - mig
[2015-08-12 10:59:46] - mig: I'm less buying into Sanders as a legitimate contender and more buying into the idea (that I've held all along, I suppose) that Clinton is a weak candidate. Your second point only reinforces that. -Paul
[2015-08-12 10:45:54] - i mad a google calendar event, "stephen is in town!" so i'd remember when he's visiting. and, google ever-helpfully set the location as "town!" ... well okay google, technically
- aaron[2015-08-12 10:40:00] - And well, that email thing is getting uglier and uglier too. - mig
[2015-08-12 10:38:21] - I think what's a more interesting development is recent polling that has Clinton trailing some GOP contenders. - mig
[2015-08-12 10:36:54] - paul: I'm still not buying the Sanders hype train (CHOO CHOO!) as legitimate just yet. Particularly since minority groups don't seem to be all that enthusiastic. - mig
[2015-08-12 09:51:34] - http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/08/12/poll-sanders-zooms-past-clinton-in-new-hampshire/ Now things start to get interesting.
-Paul[2015-08-11 16:40:38] - -Paul
[2015-08-11 16:40:36] - Daniel: Well, it's hard to compare, because you would need to find a champion with basically 50/50 odds to win to match red/black. I just think of it like this: There's really no reason to ever feel strongly that the next roll is going to be red or black, whereas there's information you can think you have to strongly believe that some team is going to win their game.
[2015-08-11 16:30:06] - Paul: I think playing roulette and betting on black or red or 1-10 is going to be better than picking who wins the MVP for the NFL next year, or who is going to be champion next year. -Daniel
[2015-08-11 16:28:13] - aaron: I guess without much actual knowledge it out to be knowable the odds for a slot machine? Maybe thats not true. I thought they would be like lottery tickets or something with known odds. That could be wrong though. -Daniel
[2015-08-11 16:18:57] - slots are pretty much the most opaque part of a casino, dynamic machines where nobody knows what's going on. and every few years there's some crazy new thing where, "oh if you enable 4-coin mode on this model of slat machine, and press C-B-A-C-C-A-B, it pays out a 4x jackpot after 3 pulls" - aaron
[2015-08-11 16:17:40] - daniel: hmm of all the things to pick in a casino you said "slots are static machines where you know what's going on?" i think i agree with your point if you pick literally any other table game (baccarat, roulette, blackjack, craps, let it ride, etc) - aaron
[2015-08-11 16:07:41] - I've been really fascinated (and amused to an extent) listening to different pro hearthstone players review the next expansions card. There's a lot more variation of opinion on a lot of cards than I thought there would be. - mig
[2015-08-11 16:04:22] - Danie: I find it hard to consider anything more random than roulette.
Is it because there are some bets that are closer to 50/50 than others? -Paul[2015-08-11 16:01:09] - I would say sports is more random than roulette. I'm not sure about slots. -Daniel
[2015-08-11 16:01:09] - Daniel: Yeah, I can't really articulate why, but I feel much better betting on a team to beat the spread vs putting money on some machine randomly throwing up three cherries (or whatever, I don't play slots). The latter just feels more random to me. -Paul
[2015-08-11 15:59:32] - Daniel: That's definitely true. I just sports betting as something that, while having lots of randomness to it, is ultimately less random that stuff like slot machines/roulette. I'm not sure how to compare it to something like blackjack. -Paul
[2015-08-11 15:59:22] - That said, yes there does seem to be less skill in playing slots. But I'm not sure its a lot less. -Daniel
[2015-08-11 15:58:53] - daniel: well yeah that's certainly a concern. It's easy to convince yourself you're a genius after winning a lucky bet and end up losing lots of money thereafter. - mig
[2015-08-11 15:58:28] - Slots are static machines where you know whats going on. You can know the odds and play accordingly. Sports is someone going out to compete against someone else. Bones break, people have hangovers, crazy shit happens. -Daniel
[2015-08-11 15:57:21] - Paul: In my head I guess its easier to get sucked into sports betting and lose lots than it is to lose lots on slots. It takes longer to lose that much on slots. -Daniel
[2015-08-11 15:55:34] - Daniel: Most random? I actually think it's far less random than most other forms of gambling. The point about skillful is probably valid compared to something like poker, but things like slot machines and roulette have virtually no skill. And most other casino games have worse odds than 50/50. -Paul
[2015-08-11 15:50:34] - Paul: One of the most random with lots of uncontrollable elements. Hard to be skillful. Lines are set up so that in theory so that its as close to 50/50 as Vegas etc can get. -Daniel
[2015-08-11 15:24:23] - Daniel: How so? -Paul
[2015-08-11 15:11:32] - Paul: Sports betting is the worst kind of betting. -Daniel
[2015-08-11 14:18:46] - When Bitcoins are outlawed only outlaws will have Bitcoins.
[2015-08-11 12:56:44] - http://reason.com/blog/2015/08/11/augur-gambling-prediction-ethereum Making a gambling system that can operate outside of regulations. Sounds pretty awesome. -Paul
[2015-08-10 15:47:42] - aaron: I laughed at that same statement
-Daniel[2015-08-10 15:46:18] - paul: not dopamine! NOT DOPAMINE!!! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO - aaron
[2015-08-10 15:45:57] - paul: "this is physically the same way heroin works, by the way."
- aaron[2015-08-10 13:09:15] - a: i wasn't trying to really make a serious counter argument, just wanted to note that I find the irony a little amusing. - mig
[2015-08-10 13:08:21] - daniel: I don't remember details, but it's one of those "scare" graphics on all the supposedly horrible things that happen to your body when you drink a soda. - mig
[2015-08-10 11:50:59] - Daniel: https://www.facebook.com/notes/path-to-truth/what-happens-to-your-body-when-you-drink-a-can-of-coke/463470410346539 You might be able to find a better version by googling it, but here is the info. It should be noted that I've been told that some (much?) of the info there is false. -Paul
[2015-08-10 11:43:35] - Paul: Whats the soda infographic? I want to read that one! I drink soda, I don't drink kale. -Daniel
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