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[2018-12-13 15:07:14] - a: Also do we want to have this conversation here or on pauls site?  Seems odd to jump back and forth.  :p  -Daniel

[2018-12-13 15:05:37] - Or is a secondary goal I guess.  -Daniel

[2018-12-13 15:05:15] - a: Its in my post over there.  I think primary purpose of an emergency fund is to be a set amount that doesn't have risk and is highly liquid.  It making money isn't the goal for me.    -Daniel

[2018-12-13 15:02:23] - daniel:  ok, why online savings then?  i feel like CDs are dumber than online savings, but i can argue against online savings too.  inflation < online savings rates:  so you're advocating for using ~0%/year "real" returns?  :)  ~a

[2018-12-13 15:00:25] - I'm not on board the CD train.  I do use online savings though.  -Daniel

[2018-12-13 15:00:06] - Oops.  Yeah cannot.  With laddering there still is a timeframe where you cannot get to your money without a penalty.  -Daniel

[2018-12-13 14:59:52] - anyways, you guys are crazy. CDs are dumb for emergency funds.  in fact, CDs are almost always useless.  the scenario where CDs are useful isn't real-world, and it'll probably never come up for me at home.  i could maybe imagine some work-scenarios where it makes sense, but even at work we keep all of our unused money in stocks/bonds :)  ~a

[2018-12-13 14:57:38] - daniel:  "CD laddering still leaves you with an emergency fund that you can get to in a matter of days unless I’m missing something"  i guess i didn't realize you were replying to paul here.  did you mean to say "can" or "cannot".  because i do see a hole in paul's logic:  "never more than 3 months away" doesn't address the totally typical scenario:  what do i do when i need the money in less than three months?  ~a

[2018-12-13 14:30:40] - Paul: Oh ok.  Its not waiting to be approved but it doesn't show up in my browser after I submit it.  If I control F5 though then it shows up.  So maybe a browser caching issue or something with how the comments are implemented?  Not a biggie though now that I know the work around.  -Daniel

[2018-12-13 14:22:10] - a: Airstrike approved. I mean... comment approved. -Paul

[2018-12-13 14:19:19] - my comment is awaiting moderation.  ~a

[2018-12-13 13:59:30] - Daniel: Hmmm, your comment seems to be there without any intervention from me. Did it say moderation was needed? -Paul

[2018-12-13 13:14:38] - Paul: I see the site.  I left a comment.  Moderation makes me sad.  Though I suppose having bots comment on your stuff would make you sad.  CAPTCHA?  -Daniel

[2018-12-13 12:51:12] - Related: But can you guys let me know if you notice any problems accessing RD or PvtM? I've had a number of times in the past few weeks where the site appears to be down, but I can't tell if it is just me or if the site is actually down. -Paul

[2018-12-13 12:47:41] - https://paulvsthemarket.com/where-do-you-put-your-emergency-fund/ This Robin Hood announcement fit in very nicely with a post I was working on. -Paul

[2018-12-13 12:10:18] - Perhaps not.  But it's not what you expect. -- Xpovos

[2018-12-13 12:06:53] - Xpovos: I'm not sure I should click that link here at work :p  -Daniel

[2018-12-13 11:54:10] - Mildly interesting. https://www.thefreelibrary.com/The+politically+correct+US+Supreme+Court+and+the+Motherfucking+Texas...-a0121873476 -- Xpovos

[2018-12-13 10:47:33] - Paul: Its enough that I will think about moving our checking as well but that would be more a pain but doable.  -Daniel

[2018-12-13 10:47:11] - Paul: Yeah agreed.  I have my checking accounts at BofA but have an online savings account.  I'm not super crazy about moving that money around from bank to bank as they compete on rates mostly just being patient and letting the rate float up as they compete but if there is someone offering 3% that is probably enough to get me to move my online savings.  -Daniel

[2018-12-13 10:44:42] - Daniel: Reading the article, though, it does sound like they're kinda gambling on the fed increasing interest rates so the sustainability seems risky. Still, the risk would seem to be mostly on their end so I would be willing to take their money and have them assume the risk. -Paul

[2018-12-13 10:41:39] - Daniel: It's mind-boggling to me how bad BoA (which is where we unfortunately have most of our roots) is in terms of CD and Savings Accounts rates. They're note even close to competitive and it's really annoying. I'm happy with my IRA with Merrill Edge because of free trades but have to look elsewhere for shorter term savings. -Paul

[2018-12-13 10:33:59] - https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/rates/ Currently that has 2.35% as the best rate for an online savings account.  Normally they compete with .05 or .1% differences.  If Robinhood comes in with 3% for a checking! account that will definitely change the game.  -Daniel

[2018-12-13 10:32:30] - Paul: That is interesting.  -Daniel

[2018-12-13 10:23:01] - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/robinhood-goes-after-banks-with-checking-and-savings-accounts.html That is kinda ridiculous (in a good way). 3% is higher than the rate I am getting on any of my CDs and would be a huge upgrade over the rate I am getting right now from BoA on my checking account (0%). -Paul

[2018-12-13 09:38:15] - a: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/12/helios-and-matheson-ceo-loses-millions-of-dollars-in-stock-value.html Maybe this was the guy from your reddit post. :-P -Paul

[2018-12-12 23:20:04] - today we're going to talk about teamwork

[2018-12-12 14:28:48] - :)  yeah, that was my goal.  ~a

[2018-12-12 14:23:28] - a: I finally got around to your link. Somehow I didn't notice it was the onion at first and while I thought the headline was a little weird, I believed it until I started reading the article. :-P -Paul

[2018-12-12 12:54:08] - agreed.  yeah, i sometimes check out trump criticizes trump.  but this one is different.  he's literally going to jail after mocking someone about their (obviously misguided) potential jail time.  it's so on the nose.  ~a

[2018-12-12 12:52:11] - a: Trump has like dozens (if not hundreds) of similar things where he calls out Obama for something that he ends up completely doing himself. -Paul

[2018-12-12 12:50:04] - los angeles cycle lanes  ~a

[2018-12-12 12:49:48] - Daniel: I feel like this is all going to end up being circular logic. We all agree past performance doesn't guarantee future results (I think), but I also think we are all using it to justify our positions at the same time. I have beaten the market in the past, so I think I can in the future. You see index funds performing better than actively managed in the past, so you believe in those. -Paul

[2018-12-12 12:47:30] - Paul: Past performance isn't why I think index funds are good.  But past performance is partly why I think active funds are bad.  So it does play a role.  -Daniel

[2018-12-12 12:45:28] - Daniel: Sure, but the ironic thing is that it's the only thing we really have to go on. The same could be said about index funds or even stocks outperforming other investments. -Paul

[2018-12-12 12:45:25] - daniel:  i've even seen it written as "past performance doesn't predict future results" which goes even further.  ~a

[2018-12-12 12:44:23] - Paul: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.  Pretty sure thats the number 1 investing rule.  -Daniel

[2018-12-12 12:42:52] - this tweet is amazing.  what goes around comes around?  ~a

[2018-12-12 12:28:36] - a: Yeah, maybe 99% is too high. Maybe 90%? I dunno, in all the tracking that I have done for myself (which is admittedly a small sample size of just a few years), I have beaten the market. I'm still worried about a big 2008 style crash totally tanking things, but if I've beaten the market over 1, 2 and 3 year periods, why can't I beat it over a 20 year period? -Paul

[2018-12-12 12:21:32] - found this on reddit:  "the president’s personal lawyer has just been sentenced to 3 years in prison for crimes that he and the department of justice agree were committed at the direction of the president."  wow, i didn't consider it that way.  ~a

[2018-12-12 12:19:54] - paul:  going further, i consider myself a "good" investor.  and i'm not even sure that there's a 99% chance *i'll* beat the market over 20 years.  ~a

[2018-12-12 12:19:43] - a: Hah, that's a good point,and why I put it in quotes. I go back to poker. What makes a poker player "good"? I guess it's a little subjective but ultimately based on how often they win. Is it a problem if the definition of "good" is based on if they beat the market? Isn't that kinda how we define good everywhere else? -Paul

[2018-12-12 12:15:31] - (sarcasm) no "good" investor loses to the market.  :)  ~a

[2018-12-12 12:14:34] - paul:  i also disagree with your statement.  but you'll need to define "good" before we really discuss what the percentage should be.  ~a

[2018-12-12 11:14:32] - Daniel: "I disagree with your 99% of good investors over the long term proposition". What number would you put there? 50%? Or is the answer that you don't believe there are "good" investors? -Paul

[2018-12-12 11:11:46] - Daniel: Huh, interesting. Well, I agree it wasn't ideal wording. I just figured with the way they phrased the 40% gain right below that it only left one reasonable probability for 10 bagger. Either way, it either shows a lack of math skills or a lack of willing to investigate the meaning of things or that it's just a silly social media poll. :-P -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:58:48] - Paul: I wasn't sure.  Up 10%?  Down 10%?  Ten times up wasn't on the list.  -Daniel

[2018-12-12 10:58:17] - Paul: I disagree with your 99% of good investors over the long term proposition but I'm not sure there is a way for either of us to back up our position in a way the other accepts.  -Daniel

[2018-12-12 10:58:08] - Daniel: What did you think it meant? -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:57:02] - Paul: I did not immediately think it meant 10x return.  For what its worth.  -Daniel

[2018-12-12 10:52:58] - Daniel: Yeah, I thought they could've worded "10 bagger" better, but at the same time, it's easy enough to look up and it's hard to think of what it could mean other than a 10x return. -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:50:46] - Daniel: I see it as probabilities. The market might average 7-10% over a 100 year period, but any specific year it can go down a ton or go up a ton. Same thing with individual investors. Freedom Portfolio might lose for 1, 2, 3 or even 5 years, but my bet is that by the time I retire, it will have outperformed the market. -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:48:16] - Daniel: So, yeah, I wouldn't at all be surprised if a "good" investor lost to the market (and maybe even badly) for like 3-5 years. But my (completely made up) guess is that something like 99% of "good" investors will beat the market over the time frame of 20+ years. -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:47:05] - Daniel: "its all skill based since I thought your position was you WILL beat the stock market not that you MIGHT beat the stock market". I don't think it's a huge difference. I think poker is a good example in that there is luck, and it can dominate over the short term, but over the long term skill should win out. -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:46:04] - aDaniel: I think we're all on the same general page with the sentencing. My comment was intended to be a little more glib than you two are taking it. A life sentence plus 400 years just sounds like a weirdly excessive thing. Why not just make it life without parole or something? -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:44:27] - a: Re: $850k loss. Yeah, I hope the Freedom Portfolio does better its first year. :-) -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:43:39] - a: No, I know that there are sometimes weird legal reasons why sentences above a life sentence are meaningful, it just seems on the surface like 400 years (which is effectively probably 5 more life sentences) is a bit much. In theory, unless you believe in reincarnation, shouldn't just a life sentence suffice? :-) -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:38:04] - Paul: I had no idea what a 10 bagger meant.  Possible if they used better language it would go better.  -Daniel

[2018-12-12 10:35:11] - https://twitter.com/themotleyfool/status/1072667726508900353 This tweet seems oddly relevant to what I'm talking about. Even though the math should be relatively simple and straightforward, roughly half of people chose the "wrong" answer here. -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:34:56] - I'm with adrian on the sentencing years thing.  419 might be more than enough but I know that "a life sentence" isn't a guarantee that someone remains in jail for the rest of their life so tacking on more years to try and actually ensure that doesn't seem crazy as a jury to me.  -Daniel

[2018-12-12 10:33:37] - Paul: I think the question was less explaining that guy in particular and more just in general whenever you see an individual fail in the market if its always attributed to them making a dumb decision / not working hard enough.  But if you are admitting luck is part of it then I guess we just disagree on how much is luck.  -Daniel

[2018-12-12 10:32:05] - Paul: Interesting, I guess before I thought your position was more its all skill based since I thought your position was you WILL beat the stock market not that you MIGHT beat the stock market.  I think I would agree that there are dumb things and smart things that people can do when investing.  -Daniel

[2018-12-12 10:26:45] - paul:  "anything on top of a life sentence seems unnecessary".  this is so naive.  it assumes that people don't ever get out orders of magnitude ahead of their sentence.  considering our legal system, i don't even know (i'm not being sarcastic, i honestly don't know) if 419 years is enough for him to be completely ineligible for parole.  ~a

[2018-12-12 10:23:45] - paul:  i didn't mean to direct it at you really.  i don't think you (or i, or daniel) make the same risky maneuvers the creator of that image did (lots and lots of options trading).  i sent it to you because i found it interesting.  ~a

[2018-12-12 10:06:37] - Daniel: So, yeah, it doesn't surprise me that somebody out there lost a bunch of money investing just like it doesn't surprise me that somebody went 2-12 in fantasy football or somebody lost all their money in poker. When skill is involved, it means some people will be better but others will be worse. -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:05:44] - Daniel: Same thing with investing. I think putting your money into a diversified group of quality companies with good leadership and competitive advantages and a host of other qualities is better than buying Sears or trying to time the market or trading on margin or penny stocks. -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:04:21] - Daniel: I think there are "good" moves and "bad" moves in investing much like there is in those other things. Probably shouldn't draft a kicker in the first round. Probably shouldn't go all in with 2-7 off-suit. Probably shouldn't go for science in 7 Wonders (I kid....a little). -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:03:19] - Daniel: Does it mean the "better" player will always win? No, because there is luck (see Le'Veon Bell or ACL tears or bad beats in poker or whatever else), but I do believe it means that over the long run the better player will win more than the worse player. -Paul

[2018-12-12 10:02:21] - Daniel: If I had to guess on what is the big difference between us on this issue, it is this: I think there is skill involved in investing similar to other things like fantasy sports or poker or board games, and somebody can be better (and others can be worse) at doing it. -Paul

[2018-12-12 09:40:09] - Daniel: Maybe it's because they didn't do enough research and drafted somebody who tore their ACL in the pre-season or somebody who retired last year, or maybe they drafted Le'Veon Bell in the first round and got unlucky. Could be a number of reasons. -Paul

[2018-12-12 09:39:05] - Daniel: I guess I'm a little confused by the question. It's like if I asked you "When you see somebody go 2-12 in fantasy football, why do you think they failed?" -Paul

[2018-12-12 09:36:56] - Daniel: And then when it didn't, he got screwed. -Paul

[2018-12-12 09:36:47] - Daniel: I can't imagine any way somebody could lose that high of a percentage of their money in the market over the past year without either being incredibly dumb or just taking on huge amounts of risk. My best guess is that person was using options or margin or something under the assumption the market would keep going up... -Paul

[2018-12-12 09:34:21] - Daniel: Obviously it depends on each specific case, but I would imagine in cases where people lose badly like that, it's because they made dumb decisions. I mean, isn't that how most things in the world work? Why did he lose so badly at chess? Well, he probably shouldn't have pushed his king to the middle of the board immediately... -Paul

[2018-12-12 09:32:29] - a: Okay...? I'm not sure why you directed that at me. Did you have a question? Is it Daniel's question? :-) -Paul

[2018-12-12 09:31:17] - a: To be clear, my point is that 400 years in addition to a life sentence is over the top for anybody, not just for this person. I'm sure there's a legal reason it makes a difference, but anything on top of a life sentence seems unnecessary, let alone multiple hundreds of years. -Paul

[2018-12-12 09:21:17] - Paul: I'm curious what you think when you see pictures or stories like that where people have failed big time on the stock market.  Why is it that you think they fail?  Because they weren't smart enough?  Didn't do enough research? Some other factor?  -Daniel

[2018-12-12 00:02:48] - paul:  found on reddit.  obviously might be fake, but the image suggests he's lost 850k in the stock market in the past year (860k down to 10k).  you can see most of his remaining holdings are in roku . . . which hasn't been doing so hot the last 6 months.  ~a

[2018-12-11 17:12:13] - if you look at 2:50, you can watch the two cars he hits after a bunch of people.  he has enough momentum to accelerate those two multi-ton cars from a complete stop.  the news is reporting he was going 28mph when he hit the protesters.  to me it does not seem weirdly over the top.  ~a

[2018-12-11 16:42:49] - Daniel: Hmmm, fair. I guess it was probably some mathematical thing where like hitting somebody with a car with intent to kill is worth 10 years. I guess that's fair-ish. Just seems weirdly over the top. -Paul

[2018-12-11 16:33:13] - Paul: He hit like 35 people with a car.  It is a lot of years but if you have whatever assault charge it is to hit someone with a car x 35 then I can see that being a lot.  -Daniel

[2018-12-11 16:31:32] - a: Wow, life AND 419 years? Not trying to defend a murderer or white supremacist, but that seems a little excessive to add multiple hundreds of years on top of a life sentence. -Paul

[2018-12-11 15:38:07] - voter fraud != election fraud.  election fraud seems to be way worse.  ~a

[2018-12-11 13:06:43] - from last week:  text message between fields and his mother with imagery of adolph hitler.  ~a

[2018-12-11 13:05:49] - fields gets life in prison (guy who ran over a bunch of people with his car in virginia, during the "unite the right" rally).  ~a

[2018-12-11 11:31:22] - a: Oh, hah. I didn't notice that. Thanks. -Paul

[2018-12-11 11:23:27] - paul:  hey, i deleted columns I and J.  that same exact data is already there in columns P and Q.  ~a

[2018-12-11 11:03:09] - a: Also, not only am I back in the lead for 2018 (go TWTR!), but I'm also within one percentage point of you in the 2017 challenge that I am still tracking (I would cheer bitcoin's collapse but as somebody who still holds some that's a bitter pill to swallow.) -Paul

[2018-12-11 10:47:40] - Anybody who knows Python: Newb question here: If I am hitting an API which is returning data in JSON format and I want to be able to manipulate the data some, is my best bet data frames? Pandas? Something else? -Paul

[2018-12-11 10:46:07] - a: So is mine... now. :-P Seriously, though, I had extremely lucky timing. I didn't sell at the top, but I did sell half my position around the middle of the year. I was worried they were getting bid up too high on the back of crypto-mining and it was going to bite them soon. -Paul

[2018-12-11 00:10:34] - yeah, sounds about right.  as i've mentioned before, my exposure to nvda is very small.  ~a

[2018-12-10 21:50:20] - a: I'm doing some preliminary research on the Freedom Portfolio, and from October 1st to December 10th, the worst performer is NVDA. :-) -Paul

[2018-12-10 14:37:22] - aaron:  :-D  ~a

[2018-12-10 14:09:21] - i don't understand what all these minus signs mean in my "change" column, why don't you guys have those? is minus good? - aaron

[2018-12-10 13:39:28] - Although the under-reported story is that the paul letter portfolio (consisting of the tickers: p, a, u, l) is up 7% so far and is beating all other names.... and the market. -Paul

[2018-12-10 13:06:49] - aaron: Not quite sure it is anybody's game... a poopy fart might no longer be in the running. -Paul

[2018-12-10 13:06:18] - aaron: Thanks! I might check that out later. I am using Soundtrap right now, which seems pretty neat and also has a pretty robust free mode. -Paul

[2018-12-10 11:55:14] - also yes i am glad i am not the only one who is nervous about the stock market challenge, it is still anybody's game - aaron

[2018-12-10 11:54:45] - paul: https://www.reaper.fm/ reaper is commercial software which you can use forever for free if you want to or you can pay for it if you want to. it's what i use when i need to make really short clips of music like you're describing  - aaron

[2018-12-09 20:27:36] - Thanks. I think I found something that will work for me. -Paul

[2018-12-07 14:54:15] - i'd talk to aaron or vinnie or amy or jeremy.  ~a

[2018-12-07 14:10:25] - Anybody here know of any dirt simple free music production software? I'm basically looking to create a really short (30 seconds or less) clip of music and hopefully it's not much more complicated than dragging and dropping instruments and playing around with the beats. -Paul

[2018-12-07 13:57:35] - a: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/3srjuf/in_casino_royale_le_chiffre_shorts_skyfleet_stock/ So you're ruling this out? -Paul

[2018-12-07 13:54:16] - paul:  yeah, i was thinking about that.  apti is a small enough company i probably could effect their bottom line pretty easily (we even know someone who works there).  after the purchase though, that would get complicated.  anyways, i meant:  buying and selling is off the table, so without getting crazy there's nothing i can do.  ~a

[2018-12-07 13:10:26] - a: Well, there's not nothing you can do. You could spread some rumors about the insolvency of Celgene to try to drive down the stock price. :-) -Paul

[2018-12-07 13:07:49] - in some ways it's freeing that i literally can't make any action that can change the outcome.  it's like watching sports in that way i guess.  ~a

[2018-12-07 13:06:33] - paul:  stock market challenge is a nail-biter.  it's mid-december and i'm sweating.  looks like it'll be down to the wire.  ~a

[2018-12-07 12:14:08] - Oh I thought this was talking about more recent incidents.  Didn't realize it actually spanned back that far.  That is kind of curious. - mig

[2018-12-07 11:50:54] - I guess otherwise, maybe it just would be seen as partisan sniping at an inappropriate time. - mig

[2018-12-07 11:46:36] - paul:  well the allegations themselves kind of came and went.  Maybe it got chalked up to "well he's going senile and not completely in his control of his faculties" and just dropped? - mig

[2018-12-07 09:58:24] - mig: I read a reminder earlier today about how the allegations of groping from HW Bush curiously didn't come up much recently when talking about his legacy. -Paul

[2018-12-07 09:49:24] - paul: https://www.vox.com/identities/2018/12/6/18125457/neil-degrasse-tyson-tchiya-amet-ashley-watson and things alleged done in the past. - mig

[2018-12-07 09:16:24] - https://rampantdiscourse.com/avengers-4-trailer-to-watch-or-not-to-watch/ Also, the new Avengers trailer is out, but I am not watching it.... yet. -Paul

[2018-12-07 09:16:07] - https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/07/entertainment/kevin-hart-oscars-step-down/index.html More famous people getting into trouble for past things said. -Paul

[2018-12-06 14:26:53] - Still super weird to me that I only got one comment from Daniel to approve, though. I'm a little worried I screwed something up by trying to fix the form. -Paul

[2018-12-06 14:25:04] - a: I use gmail and outlook.  Personal email vs emails for companies / accounts / work stuff.  Only gmail syncs to my phone.  -Daniel

[2018-12-06 14:23:42] - Ooohh.  I thought Paul was still talking about comments.  I'm dumb.  I do see the form for the stock tickers.  Somehow I was trying to fit the word ticker into the comment portion of the conversation.  Yeah I submitted an entry with my 5 tickers via the form.  Sorry for confusing things.  -Daniel

[2018-12-06 14:22:45] - It's not a big deal, since I think I might remove the form anyway since it doesn't appear to be working. Although having people just leave comments seems like it should work just as well. Maybe I should take advantage of that. -Paul

[2018-12-06 14:20:45] - daniel:  maybe try (temporarily) disabling ublock?  ~a

[2018-12-06 14:18:58] - daniel:  https://i.imgur.com/hApqeHk.png scroll up.  you don't see this section near the bottom of the article?  your browser looks kinda like mine, so we're both probably using chrome/chromium.  ~a

[2018-12-06 14:12:04] - daniel:  outlook?  why?  ~a

[2018-12-06 13:58:58] - https://i.imgur.com/zzJoSco.png Thats what it looks like when I comment.  Not sure what you are referring to by ticker.  -Daniel

[2018-12-06 13:56:10] - 5 tickers?  No idea what you mean.  -Daniel

[2018-12-06 13:08:15] - Daniel: Huh, you didn't see the form to enter 5 tickers? -Paul

[2018-12-06 13:02:13] - after years of fearmongering mythical threat of voter fraud, gop "silence now deafening" as real election fraud exposed in north carolina  ~a

[2018-12-06 13:01:11] - Form?  I clicked in the "Leave a reply" box and filled out the required fields.  -Daniel

[2018-12-06 12:59:52] - Daniel: Did you submit via the form or email? -Paul

[2018-12-06 12:56:37] - Daniel: Okay, I just got one. Not sure if it was first or second. Approved it. -Paul

[2018-12-06 12:50:48] - i just tried again.  No errors.  I am using a fake email though.  -Daniel

[2018-12-06 12:49:56] - yeah.  -Daniel

[2018-12-06 12:46:43] - Daniel: Weird. I don't see any evidence of a pending comment. On the most recent PvtM post? -Paul

[2018-12-06 12:40:57] - Paul: How long do comments take to show up?  My comment wasn't a very exciting one or even interesting but I thought it would show up by now.  -Daniel

[2018-12-06 11:49:24] - Ugh, and apparently there is an issue where form submission emails aren't getting delivered. -Paul

[2018-12-06 11:06:50] - a: Done. -Paul

[2018-12-06 10:59:46] - paul:  while you're editing the post, make sure to define the due-date.  if it's in there and i didn't notice it, sorry.  ~a

[2018-12-06 10:45:31] - Daniel: You mean other people's entries? That's a good point. I guess I should've made it clear I would be making them public. Maybe I'll edit the post. I figure once I have them all in, I'll write something for the kick-off in January. -Paul

[2018-12-06 10:32:22] - Do we get to see the entries yet or do you have to do that manually at some point?  -Daniel

[2018-12-06 10:18:49] - https://paulvsthemarket.com/fantasy-investing-2019/ Also, it's live if you guys want to test out my form. :-P -Paul

[2018-12-06 10:18:35] - Daniel: Thanks! -Paul

[2018-12-06 09:46:34] - Paul: Congrats :)  -Daniel

[2018-12-06 09:40:26] - a: Thanks. They've known since Thanksgiving, when we told immediate family. I was also impressed that they were able to keep a secret. Talia has been asking every day if she can tell people yet. -Paul

[2018-12-06 09:35:44] - june!  so cool.  did your kids know about it on sunday?  if so, that explains why they were so excited.  but also, i'm super impressed kids of that age would have any way of being able to keep a secret of that magnitude.  ~a

[2018-12-06 09:33:28] - omg, wow!  congrats, paul.  ~a

[2018-12-06 09:10:55] - In case anybody here isn't on Facebook... Gurkie is pregnant. -Paul

[2018-12-05 16:51:17] - a: That's a good question. Not sure. I've honestly never tried searching for all mentions TO somebody before. Not sure about the guidelines either. Twitter wasn't very intuitive for me to learn at all. It basically took me months of passive observing to figure out what I know now. :-) -Paul

[2018-12-05 16:22:35] - yeah that worked.  i guess the first username mention is the only one that counts?  are there a list of those "guidelines" somewhere?  ~a

[2018-12-05 16:11:23] - something interesting that is probably already down party-lines so it doesn't really matter.  ~a

[2018-12-05 15:52:12] - a: I think you can do a search like "to:@paul_essen" and it should show what you want. -Paul

[2018-12-05 15:43:09] - paul:  twitter newb question:  how do you see people that tweet *to* a feed?  i'd like to see who's tweeted *to* a specific address (say, show me all of the tweets with @fedex in them).  is that easy to do?  is it even possible?  thanks.  ~a

[2018-12-05 15:15:53] - NC voter id law would create some fun disenfranchisement, and wouldn't have caught the actual NC voter fraud perpetrated by a contractor working for the mark harris campaign.  god damn it north carolina.  ~a

[2018-12-05 15:10:52] - much talk yesterday about election fraud finally discovered in north carolina.  thoughts?  sounds like about what i'd expect, but i guess i'm biased.  ~a

[2018-12-05 12:51:18] - paul:  i know you're joking, but to reiterate, i'm pro-autonomous-vehicles.  i just want a law that includes them passing a test that involves pedestrians, people with disabilities, and bikes or scooters.  ~a

[2018-12-05 12:47:09] - I see they did run the #s on it, but I'm skeptical. - mig

[2018-12-05 12:45:07] - "The pursuit of greater profits. Studies of have shown the biggest cost for ride-share operations is the expense of paying a driver."  How do autonomous vehicles improve things?  Am I missing something here but wouldn't any savings on that be offset by having to deal with vehicle maintenance/insurance, since I'm assuming the company will own those vehicles? - mig

[2018-12-05 10:45:09] - a: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/05/waymo-starts-commercial-ride-share-service.html You might want to stay out of Phoenix *ducks* -Paul

[2018-12-04 15:23:03] - Daniel: Thanks. -Paul

[2018-12-04 14:51:02] - I like knowing that mechanically things are in good shape and that with regular normal maintenance things *probably* shouldn't go crazy.  However I do also like the lower price tag of used cars.  -Daniel

[2018-12-04 14:50:20] - I've bought new and used cars and I'm still not sure which I prefer.  -Daniel

[2018-12-04 14:41:39] - i'm not against used cars.  my next car will be a used car.  i think . . . craigslist for this type of transaction is worrisome.  ~a

[2018-12-04 14:38:45] - paul:  it all depends.  some problems are more than 10k to fix.  it could be water damage or something else unfixable.  i sold a bike on craigslist because i didn't want to maintain it anymore.  the guy who bought it may have been happy with it, but i was no longer happy with it.  the ~$400 i got for it was worth more to me than the bike i gave up.  the same thing can happen for cars.  do you want a car that you won't want to maintain?  ~a

[2018-12-04 14:36:33] - https://www.reddit.com/r/LifeProTips/comments/2nf1fn/lpt_get_a_free_used_car_report_using_ebay/  lol  -Daniel

[2018-12-04 14:34:57] - Its not as detailed but something.  -Daniel

[2018-12-04 14:34:48] - https://www.nicb.org/how-we-help/vincheck -Daniel

[2018-12-04 14:32:23] - Related, but is there any way to get a free car history report based on VIN? I see a few advertisements for it, but then they want to charge me. -Paul

[2018-12-04 14:26:45] - So, yeah, on one hand that's a screaming flashing red light indicating something is horribly wrong, but on the other hand, even in the worst case scenario, is it $10k bad? -Paul

[2018-12-04 14:25:57] - a: Yeah, but still... some of the prices I am seeing are pretty ridiculously lower to the point where even if the transmission needed like a complete replacement, it might be worth it. It's more than $10k less than similar cars on CarMax. -Paul

[2018-12-04 14:05:44] - paul:  that's what i was suggesting when i said "how would you even manage that transaction?"  obviously the seller would have to be ok meeting you at the mechanic's location.  probably even after you've seen if you like it.  ~a

[2018-12-04 14:01:22] - So maybe the key is to contact the sellers and see if they're okay with me taking the car to a mechanic somehow? Huh, I guess the logistics of that would be hard to work out without it seeming like I am stealing the car. -Paul

[2018-12-04 13:11:13] - Paul: A bit of a drive, but I know a guy.  Good mechanic, very trustworthy. -- Xpovos

[2018-12-04 13:10:18] - oops.  s/dealer/mechanic/g.  oof.  ~a

[2018-12-04 13:06:55] - paul:  i'm with daniel.  i bought a motorcycle on craigslist, didn't take it to a dealer, and it ended up ok for me, but i think i got lucky.  i think the problem with craigslist, is that i don't think sellers are expecting you to want to take it to a dealer.  so how would you even manage that transaction?  ~a

[2018-12-04 12:56:37] - Daniel: It's just so tempting because there are cars that are like half the price, and while I know there's almost certainly a good reason, I also figure there could be good deals to be had dealing directly with people and cutting out the middle men. -Paul

[2018-12-04 12:55:47] - Daniel: I know no mechanics which I necessarily trust a ton. So I'll count that as a vote for worst idea? :-) -Paul

[2018-12-04 12:54:09] - Buying the car without taking it to a trusted mechanic - worst idea.  -Daniel

[2018-12-04 12:53:53] - Paul: Depends on how good the mechanic you take it to is and how much you trust that mechanic.  -Daniel

[2018-12-04 12:53:08] - So... buying a car off Craigslist: Bad idea or the worst idea? :-) -Paul

[2018-12-04 12:34:27] - Oof, and now James Conner is out for this week? My redraft team is getting hit hard at RB. First Hunt and now Conner... -Paul

[2018-12-04 12:30:16] - the rhetoric surrounding a lot of arguments for "dealing" with income inequality leads me to believe a lot of it is motivated by jealousy and resentment against successful people. - mig

[2018-12-04 12:21:13] - mig: That was a ridiculous game. Even the defenses scored a ton of points! -Paul

[2018-12-04 12:16:21] - well three weeks, maybe.  whenever that KC/LAR game was. - mig

[2018-12-04 12:15:57] - I'm still very bitter about 2 weeks ago.  I'm pretty sure now that monday night game knocked me completely out of any playoff consideration. - mig

[2018-12-04 12:12:12] - I'm disappointed in my loss this week in redraft. Could've locked up a playoff spot and instead I'm in danger of missing out if I lose this week. I've got the most points scored! -Paul

[2018-12-04 12:03:18] - Boom or bust.  I had higher hopes for this season but I supposed I'm not done yet.  -Daniel

[2018-12-04 12:01:11] - Daniel: You've got a pretty good team. I wouldn't want to face you in the playoffs. :-) -Paul

[2018-12-04 11:33:29] - On a different note I'm amazed that after the sad season I've had in our keeper league I still have a chance at making the playoffs.  I don't know that its a good chance but a shot nonetheless.  -Daniel

[2018-12-04 11:10:46] - Daniel: I think you could draw some inferences from that if somebody generally ranked the "high wealth" people lower than the other groups. -Paul

[2018-12-04 11:10:14] - Daniel: Well, I mean if you had a question like: "In general, how much do you respect the following groups of people?" and then listed a whole bunch of groups ranging from high paid CEOs to owners of sports teams (so people who are wealthy, but not just blatantly saying wealthy people) and then groups like single moms or whatever (to provide a contrast)... -Paul

[2018-12-04 10:43:09] - Paul: Maybe but I don't know that  I know many high ranking CEO's.  Like Bezos, Gates?, Buffet, ?, sports owners - if they count but seem like that would muddy the water on feelings.  But yeah I agree that asking directly seems like it wouldn't work great.  -Daniel

[2018-12-04 10:40:13] - Daniel: Much better than asking directly. I don't think people would be honest. -Paul

[2018-12-04 10:39:59] - Daniel: Wouldn't be perfect, but I think you could get some directional info that way. -Paul

[2018-12-04 10:39:41] - Daniel: Oh, you could probably try to get at is easily enough. Have a bunch of questions about rating categories of people from 1-10 and have it include stuff like high-paid CEOs and celebrities and evangelical religious types and see if there is a correlation between those that support higher taxes on the rich and lower ratings for high wealth people. -Paul

[2018-12-04 10:32:05] - Paul: Now I'm trying to envision a way a poll or survey could even try to come up with a result on whether people who favored tax increases wanted to stick it to the rich vs recognize that higher taxes won't impact their lives as much.  I don't think just asking would work?  Maybe?  -Daniel

[2018-12-04 10:29:30] - Daniel: I see this as the same way. I'm sure some Democrats are purely just looking at how the rich can afford to pay more taxes (even though they already pay the vast majority), but I suspect a large percentage of them just want to stick it to those fat cats. -Paul

[2018-12-04 10:28:22] - Daniel: Maybe. I think a good analogy is when social conservatives try to block things like gay adoption of kids. If you wanted to give the benefit of the doubt, you can say it's all about the welfare of the kids and about how important it is to have a mother AND father figure. Or, if you wanted to by cynical, you could call it homophobia. -Paul

[2018-12-04 10:23:42] - Paul: I'm sure that jealousy or resentment does factor in for some people but I think one can think that the rich can pay more taxes without it having to stem from those two things.  I would agree that proposing taxes that impact the wealthy more is certainly more politically palatable.  -Daniel

[2018-12-04 09:25:18] - Daniel: I think D's realize that jealousy or resentment of the rich is a powerful motivator and try to capitalize on that. -Paul

[2018-12-04 09:24:08] - Daniel: Totally agree that it's a loaded word, but I think it at least partially captures the sentiment. Lots of talk of tax raises isn't focused on increasing government revenue or helping the middle class or stuff like that. Lots of the rhetoric is about how the rich are too rich and need to pay "their fair share". -Paul

[2018-12-03 16:42:31] - Paul: Agree on your points about D's not super caring regardless of President.  Punish is a loaded word, not sure its entirely accurate though not entirely wrong either.  I think we can help out people and pay down debt.  -Daniel

[2018-12-03 16:09:46] - Daniel: I think that's a fair characterization, but I also think debt/deficits is a bigger deal to Republicans (at least when there is a Democratic president). Democrats very rarely seem to care about debt or deficits. They seem to want to raise taxes to punish the rich or help the poor/middle-class instead of paying down debt. -Paul

[2018-12-03 15:59:10] - I'm not sure I would characterize the ACLU thing quite that way given the context of it being applied to sexual assault on campus but it is still interesting to read the position and not what I would have expected.  -Daniel

[2018-12-03 15:50:52] - paul:  republican hypocrisy on spending is not a new thing.  The ACLU suddenly finding a core civil liberty objectionable certainly is. - mig

[2018-12-03 15:48:18] - My understanding is that both sides want to "fix" spending but that R's want to "fix" spending by lower taxes in order to stimulate the economy and lowering domestic spending.  D's want to "fix" spending by increasing taxes to pay for things and lower defense spending.  Agree / Disagree with that characterization?  -Daniel

[2018-12-03 15:43:13] - Whereas with Democrats, I honestly am not sure at times if they think there is a problem with out of control spending and ever increasing deficits and exploding debt (at least if Krugman is representative). -Paul

[2018-12-03 15:42:31] - I don't necessarily want to interrupt the conversation, but I think I at least slightly disagree with Miguel here. For me, if anybody should "know better" about things, it's Republicans when it comes to fiscal matters. I feel like most Republican politicians at least understand the problem of out of control spending and debts and deficits but just ignore it when inconvenient. -Paul

[2018-12-03 15:37:47] - So the D's get held to a higher standard?  Interesting.  -Daniel

[2018-12-03 15:30:49] - Republican do it to, but I think it's aggravating because in the case of Dems, again, I think they should know better. - mig

[2018-12-03 15:26:12] - I think politics in general has devolved some into whatever the other side wants is bad.  Definitely I think R's did that under Obama but I think there are elements of it with Trump now too.  I think D's support his budding criminal reform stuff though right?  -Daniel

[2018-12-03 15:25:18] - mig: I'd be interested in you expanding on those if you were interested.  Where are they moving away from defending free speech?  Which aspects of the free market?  The ACLU thing is interesting.  I'm surprised by their position as well.  Sexual assault on campus I think is tricky but their response still does seem odd.  -Daniel

[2018-12-03 15:18:51] - And what adds to the frustration is that I think a lot of this is in fact being driven by the motivation of: everything Trump,DeVos, etc. must be opposed, so everything that they do must be declared the worst thing ever, regardless of how irrational the opposition to a particular thing might actually be. - mig

[2018-12-03 15:11:40] - And I mean jesus, even the ACLU is complaining about giving the accused due process.  What the fuck is going on? - mig

[2018-12-03 15:07:34] - Dems in general seem to be moving away from defending free speech.  I also remember a time when Democrats weren't so absolutely hostile to some aspects of the free market.  As for repulsive, there's the religion of Identity politics, and as paul mentioned earlier, the tendency to label nearly any non progressive idea or person as "white supremecy/patriarchy". - mig

[2018-12-03 12:36:47] - mig: Which viewpoint commanalities do you think you have / had with Dems?  What the are the positions you find repulsive?  I think both sides are drifting towards a Fuck the other side at all costs.  I think the R's did their fair share of that under Obama so it doesn't seem like a one party think to me.  -Daniel

[2018-12-03 12:22:56] - mig: https://rampantdiscourse.com/knee-jerk-reaction-trumps-first-two-months/ I made a similar point about Devos and Sessions before. It was baffling and frustrating to me that out of all the nominees Trump put up, it seemed like Devos was the one with the most concentrated opposition. -Paul

[2018-12-03 12:06:28] - Then along comes Kavanaugh, who ends up being fairly controversial.  To the point where moderates republicans might have been hesistant about changing the filibuster rule had it still been in place.  But because democrats decided to die on the hill of Gorsuch for whatever reason, we have Justice Kavanugh now. - mig

[2018-12-03 12:04:24] - For the latter, it's kind of this "Fuck Trump at all costs!" attitude, to the point of irrationality.  Such as in the Gorsuch saga, where a somewhat moderate republican judicial nominee was pronounced as the end of civilization and had to be stopped at all costs, which at the end of the day ended up costing them the ability to filibuster future judicial nominees. - mig

[2018-12-03 12:00:55] - a:  I'm harsher on Democrats I guess because I feel like they are drifting further away from the viewpoint commonalities I thought we had and starting to adopt ones that I find repulsive.  And that's kind of frustrating.  And on top of that an issue of competence, for which I think they should definitely know better. - mig

[2018-12-03 08:31:27] - tor browser is firefox.  i'm not sure how popular it is, but i do like the idea.  sometimes, i feel bad for law enforcement:  this cat and mouse game is probably getting hard for them, but then i am reminded what the government has tried to do to cripple encryption.  ~a

[2018-12-02 19:01:55] - Tor isn't so much a browser as a network, though. -- Xpovos

[2018-12-02 15:31:05] - Random question: It sounds like most people here use Chrome or Firefox. Is Tor a popular browser at all? -Paul

[2018-11-30 12:56:40] - a: Maybe. I think it's important to note that instead of hating all Democrats 10% more than all Republicans, it's more like I hate 40% of Republicans more than the average Democrat and 60% of Republicans less.... or something like that. -Paul

[2018-11-30 11:48:27] - your answer is more nuanced, but it comes down to the same results.  a difference without a distinction?  ~a

[2018-11-30 10:48:31] - a: I think the big thing is I really hate the attacks that predominantly come from the left where everybody is racist/sexist/homophobic/etc. It's a pet peeve of mine. -Paul

[2018-11-30 10:47:24] - a: Like, Republicans say the "right" thing maybe 40% of the time? 30%? And even though I know there's a 99% chance that it'll end in hypocrisy, there's still something slightly more appealing to that than saying the wrong thing and also doing the wrong thing. -Paul

[2018-11-30 10:46:08] - *hate the rhetoric

[2018-11-30 10:45:47] - a: I wouldn't necessarily agree with that. I think it's more nuanced. I think I had the rhetoric of Democrats generally more than the rhetoric of Republicans. I will say that I think Republicans probably have higher highs (Justin Amash, Ron Paul, etc) but also lower lows (Arpaio, Sessions, etc). -Paul

[2018-11-30 10:37:00] - yes, that's the only (!) difference between you and me.  you hate democrats more than republicans imo.  i'm the other way around.  ~a

[2018-11-30 10:23:46] - a: I always vote third party, and I'm almost always happy the loser lost, but then I think, "but the winner won....lame". -Paul

[2018-11-30 10:19:55] - i sometimes vote for a third party for president.  but even when the third party doesn't win, i'm usually like:  well at least the republican also lost.  2016, man.  lame.  ~a

[2018-11-30 10:13:01] - a: Welcome to a libertarian's world every single election. Seriously. I know you all think Trump is horrible, and he is, but basically every election I think the winner and runner-up are pretty horrible so following politics is just a constant state of depression. :-P -Paul

[2018-11-30 10:05:56] - you guys, stop depressing me.  ~a

[2018-11-30 10:04:36] - Trump seems like he should be a weak candidate in 2020, but I've been a little aghast at the seeming front runners for the Democrats. I'm not sure Biden or Sanders or Warren are going to cut it. -Paul

[2018-11-30 10:01:35] - Depressingly, I think the odds of a President other than Trump in 2021 is maybe 55% at best right now.  I've been aware of an eight-year sentence of Trump since the day after the election.  I'm not sure it's a most likely scenario right now, but it's much higher odds than I think most people want to think about. -- Xpovos

[2018-11-30 09:40:57] - well it probably won't come to that.  highest chance "win" i'll take is a different president in 2021.  ~a

[2018-11-30 09:37:38] - a: Assuming he enjoys being President (which I'm actually not entirely sure about, he might secretly prefer some way to wiggle out of a second term without making it seem like a failure), then I can't imagine he resigns under any circumstance. -Paul

[2018-11-30 09:33:05] - paul/xpovos:  i agree his base won't be swayed easily.  but if trump is indicted or impeached or convicted, you could convince some of the moderates that voted for him in 2016.  (unlikely but) if trump could be convinced, like nixon, that this is what will happen, he might resign.  the senate is more than 1/3rd repulican, and a 2/3rds is required, but the same thing (supposedly) happened with nixon.  a pipe dream, i know.  ~a

[2018-11-30 09:21:18] - aXpovos: I'm not sure whatever Mueller finds it affects Trump's base of support much. Obviously I guess it depends on what he finds, but I honestly think Trump has done things that were a lot worse politically in the past that didn't hurt him. He's framed this as a witch hunt and I think his base believes it. -Paul

[2018-11-29 23:15:53] - a: That seems an impossible goal.  No matter who  the Democrats run, he will be unpalatable to at least 30% of likely voters, who would then vote for Trump anyway, even as bad as he is.  I think that's the real floor.  40% is probably quite likely even if he does get impeached (and not convicted). -- Xpovos

[2018-11-29 16:56:06] - likely an indictment would not hurt with that.  ~a

[2018-11-29 16:55:12] - mig:  that's not my hope/goal.  my hope/goal is that 75% or more of likely voters agree (in 2019ish) that trump is a bad president and shouldn't be allowed to be our president for another four years.  ~a

[2018-11-29 16:43:21] - If the hope/goal is “Trump gets impeached”, yes thats the lone. - mig

[2018-11-29 14:06:35] - paul:  well there = "the line".  i don't totally remember what the official line was, but i think it's something along the lines of:  trump did something illegal.  and more illegal than lying/obstructing, i guess.  miguel, does that sound right?  ~a

[2018-11-29 14:01:07] - a: Just out of curiosity, what is "there"? -Paul

[2018-11-29 13:59:07] - mig:  omg omg, are we there yet?  every time i'm like "finally we're there!"  and every time i'm let down.  :'(  maybe, just maybe, we were already there when like half of the presidential staff went to jail / resigned in disgrace.  ~a

[2018-11-29 11:16:56] - a: Thanks! -Paul

[2018-11-29 11:15:06] - well i know it's in there because google sheets has googlefinance incomedividenddate.  but i don't see it in the ui.  yahoo finance has it under "historical data":  dropdown "show" change to "dividends only".  ~a

[2018-11-29 10:44:41] - a: How do you find the date in google finance? I haven't been able to find it. -Paul

[2018-11-29 10:42:46] - i also doubt it'll be that close.  we're neck-and-neck today, but i doubt we will be in late december.  regardless, for the record, i think we should use whichever date that google finance and yahoo finance use.  regardless of who that's better for.  ~a

[2018-11-29 09:59:16] - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/disney-ups-dividend-2018-11-28 "The Walt Disney Co. DIS, +0.30% said late Wednesday its board of directors has authorized a semi-annual cash dividend of 88 cents a share, payable Jan. 10 to shareholders of record on Dec. 10." -Paul

[2018-11-29 09:58:48] - a: Looks like it is a month apart. I don't really care either, but since Disney pays two dividends a year recently, it seems like I should get credit for two this year even if the timing works out where technically only one gets counted this calendar year. I'm fine either way, though. I doubt it gets that close. -Paul

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