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[2019-01-23 10:20:17] - paul: after the rht purchase agreement, did gurkie buy any ibm? ~a
[2019-01-22 17:19:42] - maybe. i honestly wonder what the breaking point is. will things continue on status quo forever? i give the TSA another few weeks before the airports start shutting down. once the airports have shut down, i wonder if the administration will start to give up ground. ~a
[2019-01-22 16:27:29] - As much as I understand the impulse to not reward Trump in any way for initiating the shutdown, him getting 5.7b feels like it would be a Pyrrhic victory for him, while some tangible good things can be gotten that Democrats want in exchange. - mig
[2019-01-22 16:25:35] - a: sure, I'm not suggesting to just take the Trump deal as he proposed it. What about 5.7b for a more permanent DACA solution? I feel like he can be prodded to make that deal. - mig
[2019-01-22 15:32:40] - a: Maybe he just feels bad for Daniel since we were crushing him so badly in the Fantasy Investing 2019 competition (spoiler alert for the 1st month results coming out next week). -Paul
[2019-01-22 15:24:47] - paul: never give up, never surrender. ~a
[2019-01-22 15:20:16] - I'm a little surprised Trump doesn't at least end this trade war with China to buy some good will to offset the bad PR he is getting over the shutdown. He seems to care a lot about how the stock market does under his watch and it clearly is reacting to negotiations with China. Feels like he could get an easy win with some simple concessions and then declare victory. -Paul
[2019-01-22 14:32:53] - mig: $5.7b for 3 years of temporary daca? yeah i'll pass. depends on the revision of course. if they change 5.7b to 5.7m, then sure, do it. ~a
[2019-01-22 10:50:43] - a: "what's the ecological output of every company" That seems either impossible to measure or really easy to game. -Paul
[2019-01-22 10:49:20] - Daniel: "I'm not sure it will be super effective" I'll do you one better and say I'm pretty sure it won't be effective.
-Paul[2019-01-22 10:21:53] - a: Lots of people use git but if that is any barometer for seemingly smart people using a complicated technology then I'm even more worried for bitcoins future. I think the amount of people I've met in my career that I think really understand git is quite small. -Daniel
[2019-01-22 10:20:36] - mig: I'm fine with some money for some wall / border security whatever sure. If you are trying to build "THE WALL" that goes coast to coast that seems dumb. If you want to build a wall for like a 4 mile stretch somewhere that makes sense? And some other 3 mile stretch sure. I'm not sure it will be super effective but its all a bit of a give and take when it comes to cartels/immagrants vs border security. So short answer yeah. -Daniel
[2019-01-22 10:17:07] - adaniel: how do you feel about wall $ for daca? Not necessarily Trump's initial offer (because it's not very satisfactory), but some revision of it? - mig
[2019-01-22 09:13:32] - paul: the teen maga thing is kind of amazing when you consider all the holier than thou lecturing cnn/et all was giving buzzfeed over the shaky report evidence of obstruction of justice by Trump. - mig
[2019-01-21 17:40:48] - it's actually beating the s&p500! the thing i like: is that someone is at least trying. the thing i don't like: it still includes a shit-ton of e-waste like aapl, amzn, etc. but again, it's an attempt. what i'd like to know more: what's the ecological output of every company. then i can make informed decisions about where to direct investments. ~a
[2019-01-21 10:14:45] - paul: agreed. maybe someday it'll get simpler: i imagine a paypal or a venmo of the world will (maybe) just start supporting it. otoh, i always thought git was too hard for the average programmer, but i guess i was wrong on that: everybody seems to be using it nowadays. ~a
[2019-01-21 09:45:19] - https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/21/us/maga-hat-teens-native-american-second-video/index.html Anybody else been following this story? It's so wild and incredibly disappointing how quick to judge people are in this country... especially people who should know better (like the media). -Paul
[2019-01-21 09:31:23] - a: Fair. I guess it just goes together with all the other bitcoin stuff that is possible, but probably harder than 99% of people want to put up with. -Paul
[2019-01-18 16:15:40] - paul: actually you can subscribe to send money. i've done it before. it does *absolutely* require your wallet to support it (and imo, there needs to be some improvement here before it hits prime-time. i.e. there aren't any open standards here yet that i know about). ~a
[2019-01-18 15:51:18] - a: I am rooting for him (and others) against Patreon with regards to this and I do think it'll be interesting to see if bitcoin catches on as a use case here. Likely not, because you can't really subscribe to send money, but who knows? -Paul
[2019-01-18 15:50:30] - a: I haven't seen a lot of Rubin's stuff, although I do follow him on Twitter. He seems a bit over the top, but I largely think he's on point in terms of not vilifying other people (and yes, I realize he could be accused of being a hypocrite there) and hearing what they have to say. -Paul
[2019-01-18 15:41:25] - paul: i'm not a fan of dave rubin's content: he seems too angry at liberals, and seems to give conservatives a pass. but, i did donate to his subscription because i support moving away from patreon and towards a trustless model. he's received over $3k in subscriptions via bitcoin. i'm not sure how much of that was recent though, i think he's been publishing his address for a while now. ~a
[2019-01-18 15:22:43] - i saw.
not looking now won't help. ~a[2019-01-18 15:12:26] - a: Don't look now, but I continue to narrow the gap between us in Q3. -Paul
[2019-01-18 15:01:09] - a: It's weird. One of my bold predictions was that Tesla could double in 2019 (and I do believe that), but I also figured they would be in for a rough first quarter because of all that demand pulled forward and the tax credit halving. I briefly considered Tesla for 2019, but wanted something I thought was safer. -Paul
[2019-01-18 14:53:10] - dave rubin, mentioned in the article, does include a btc address. sam harris does not. ~a
[2019-01-18 14:32:46] - regarding patreon, i've never used it before. i suppose i like the idea, but i guess this is what you get when you don't use a trustless ledger to pass money around
~a[2019-01-18 14:31:34] - remember when i was thinking of putting tsla in the 2019 challenge. *whew* ~a
[2019-01-18 13:42:16] - So while I think their banning decisions are perfectly within their right, I think it's a bad look and wish they hadn't gone "ideological" (if that is what happened). -Paul
[2019-01-18 13:41:40] - To be clear, since I suspect this will come up, I personally think Patreon has the right (as a private company) to ban whoever they want for whatever reason they want (or no reason at all), but I also think people are perfectly justified to take them to task for banning decisions that they make. -Paul
[2019-01-18 13:40:48] - https://unherd.com/2019/01/the-politics-of-the-patreon-purge/ I've never heard of Unherd before, so this could be coming from a biased site, but I have heard of the controversy over Patreon and this seems like a fair summary of the course of events. Wonder if anybody has any thoughts. -Paul
[2019-01-18 13:02:40] - paul: yeah, 80 million isn't bad, but fuck, yeah, you'd think the founder of vanguard would at least be in the billions. ~a
[2019-01-18 12:21:21] - a: Yeah, and I think that point is underrated, that Vanguard is essentially a non-profit. He could've structured it differently and raised fees a tiny bit and became a billionaire, but he didn't. Those savings got passed along to investors. -Paul
[2019-01-18 12:18:35] - paul: i agree. to add to that, i personally push myself towards passive investing because of him. i also personally push myself towards vanguard itself because vanguard corporate is owned by shareholders in vanguard funds. which is radical in its own right. ~a
[2019-01-18 11:19:10] - a: Yeah, basically I was saying that anybody who has invested in a mutual fund in the past few decades has probably benefited from lower fees that were at least indirectly influenced by Bogle and Vanguard. -Paul
[2019-01-18 11:14:17] - paul: hah yeah that was a weird sentence. i read it a few times then decided you were just being poetic. ~a
[2019-01-18 11:08:56] - That was a weird sentence. "Life" was supposed to be for "anybody's life", not the life of a mutual fund. -Paul
[2019-01-18 11:03:41] - a: I think it's safe to say he's had a major effect on almost anybody who has invested in a mutual fund's life. Pretty safe to say that Vanguard has inadvertently pulled down fees across the board. -Paul
[2019-01-18 10:57:21] - daniel: the problem with "less" for a physical wall, is that it's hard for trump to say "i asked for 5.7 because i wanted 2 [for a physical wall]". ~a
[2019-01-18 10:43:41] - paul: yep. he's had a major effect on my life. ~a
[2019-01-18 10:42:52] - so "less" then? even 3b for border security probably means less than 2.8b for a "physical" wall. i agree, btw. ~a
[2019-01-18 10:42:04] - a: Well, I hope that my posts helps even just one person appreciate his life. He definitely feels like one of those super underappreciated people where the difference between the number of people that he helped and the number of people who know his name is so wide. -Paul
[2019-01-18 10:41:27] - oh sorry I guess that was more to a:. Read to fast! -Daniel
[2019-01-18 10:41:04] - Paul: I think they do 2b to 3b for "border security" and that some of that goes to some wall stuff and somewhere someone will build a wall and Trump will go take a picture in front of it with a Mission Accomplished banner hanging behind him. -Daniel
[2019-01-18 10:36:09] - paul: yes, really. i saw some stuff on reddit afterwards, but yes. ~a
[2019-01-18 10:03:43] - a: Also, did PvtM really break Bogle's death for you? I'm glad I wrote that short, inconsequential thing then. I assumed most everybody else would've already known. -Paul
[2019-01-18 10:03:12] - a: Ultimately, though, I usually can only guess why stocks move how they do after earnings. I thought Amazon crushed it last earnings and it tanked (probably due to the overall market tanking, but who knows). -Paul
[2019-01-18 10:02:33] - a: I think you're thinking about the market the wrong way. I think people liked the price hikes (stock goes up) and then after earnings weren't perfect, they decided to take some of those gains (especially with the big run up recently) and sell. -Paul
[2019-01-18 10:01:14] - My prediction, because these things always end in the worst possible way for my political leanings, is that somehow an agreement is reached to build the wall and end the shutdown. Likely Democrats get something they want, like maybe some increase to Obamacare or universal basic income or something.
-Paul[2019-01-18 09:59:42] - a: Re: Shutdown. It's kinda a no-win for me. Since we know government employees are going to get back-pay, it's not like the shutdown is good in any kind of smaller government way except to show to most people that I think we don't need most of what the federal government does. -Paul
[2019-01-18 09:57:46] - a: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/analyst-react-to-netflix-earnings.html -Paul
[2019-01-18 09:55:36] - daniel: yes i was thinking of that too. they'll get some money, but not the full amount asked for. then trump can say "i asked for 5.7b because i actually wanted the amount i got". so what's your guess on the amount of "physical wall/fence" funding? do you think they'll get greater or less than 50% of 5.7b? (greater or less than 2.8b for a physical wall?) ~a
[2019-01-18 09:52:19] - yeah i hear you, but (potentially) none of the stock buyers and sellers knew about the "mixed" reporting until yesterday after hours. ~a
[2019-01-18 09:51:23] - a: Even with the drop, it's still up for the week. -Paul
[2019-01-18 09:50:11] - a: Yeah, I kept seeing CNBC reporting "mixed" results and while that's technically true since they missed on revenue.... everything else seemed really good. This is why I don't stress the short term. I think the gains were pulled forward with the price hike announcement. It's also already up like 30% the past few weeks... -Paul
[2019-01-18 09:31:50] - Real prediction is that eventually there is some compromise where there is funding for some wall, and Trump goes on TV and says he is building The Wall. -Daniel
[2019-01-18 09:31:06] - a: My fun prediction is that a small number of R senators rebel and join with the D's to elect new Senate Majority Leader Murkowski and she passes the house bill and they override Trump's veto. -Daniel
[2019-01-18 07:23:44] - what do you guys think about the shutdown? specifically what should the next action be? should democrats discuss voting for a bill with funding for a literal physical wall or slated steel fence? should republicans discuss voting for a bill that lacks funding for a literal physical wall or slated steel fence? ~a
[2019-01-18 07:13:28] - xpovos: yep.
i saw on pvtm. ~a[2019-01-18 01:50:00] - Daniel: Jack Bogle has passed.
-- Xpovos[2019-01-17 17:44:41] - paul: stock falls after hours. i guess because of the revenue. wtf 4% jesus why. ~a
[2019-01-17 17:17:03] - a: Really liked the Netflix earnings report today. Might be a fantasy investing winner for you this year. -Paul
[2019-01-17 16:29:46] - i.e. locking yourself in at a (potentially) low rate is probably not a good thing. ~a
[2019-01-17 16:25:55] - yeah, there is a risk that is *much* higher. you'll have a use for that money in less than 15 months that will be worth much more to you than 2.9%/year. ~a
[2019-01-17 16:14:58] - Although the 2.5% return is lower than the 2.85% APY for 15 months that Synchrony is offering for CDs right now. I understand the argument for flexibility, though. -Paul
[2019-01-17 16:13:53] - Daniel: Right, I knew I shouldn't use that word as soon as I hit enter. I guess I see FDIC protection as about as guaranteed as it gets in the sense that if that fails, it likely means Mad Max scenario (or at least a collapse of the US government). Wondering if that's the same level of guarantee with this. -Paul
[2019-01-17 16:10:42] - daniel: i added 7% to 32% ("backed by the full faith and credit of the u.s. government", which is arguably less risk than fdic) to get to (rounding) 40% ~a
[2019-01-17 16:05:05] - a: there is a section on that page titled "Plain talk about risk". I don't think they would object to my characterization of a low risk but still some risk fund. -Daniel
[2019-01-17 16:03:57] - a: Looking I only see 6.7% of its holdings that appear to qualify for FDIC coverage. https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/vmmxx Only the certificate of deposit section I think would have FDIC coverage. -Daniel
[2019-01-17 16:00:10] - daniel: which risk? there's possible fidelity risk (of which they probably are at least partially insured), but look at where the vmmxx is held: lots of it (~40%?) is in fdic insured or otherwise us treasury backed institutions. ~a
[2019-01-17 15:58:58] - a: Oh I get it. Sure if the entire system crapped out they wouldn't be able to replace everything. But if my bank craps out they will. -Daniel
[2019-01-17 15:57:45] - daniel: fdic insures up to 250k until they run out of money. they hold something like ~50b and insure ~5t in balances. you could argue that they are allowed to get money from the treasury, but even that wouldn't cover more than 2% of the balances they insure (~100-150b / 5t). ~a
[2019-01-17 15:56:29] - Paul: I would not use the word guaranteed. It works to preserve the value and probably won't go down but definitely is subject to some level of risk. -Daniel
[2019-01-17 15:55:21] - a: I'm a little unclear as to how it works.... is it pretty much guaranteed (outside of really extreme situations, I guess) to maintain the principal put in? -Paul
[2019-01-17 15:49:03] - Also is it that better than 2% that I get in an online savings account currently that is FDIC insured? -Daniel
[2019-01-17 15:47:43] - a: I'm not sure what you mean? FDIC insures up to 250k? So maybe we aren't thinking about the same thing. https://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/faq.html -Daniel
[2019-01-17 15:36:41] - daniel: fdic's account can only cover ~1% of the insured balances. so, which scenario are you thinking of that would take out vanguard, but not fdic? ~a
[2019-01-17 15:02:34] - a: A money market fund would still be closer but I think its not insured. And I think thats a big part of the emergency fund is that its a foundation that you literally can't lose. -Daniel
[2019-01-17 14:50:36] - print articles only ~a
[2019-01-17 14:43:58] - paul: bringing us back to a conversation we had in december, i found someone had pointed at this fund: vmmxx. i wonder if it fits the needs of you and daniel with a much better rate (2.5%) AND *much* better flexibility? ~a
[2019-01-16 14:27:35] - mig: It's almost as if not all women share the same political beliefs.
-Paul[2019-01-16 14:15:46] - paul: probably but I think the big thing that is causing these orgs from pulling their support is unwillingness to unambiguously condemn Farrakhan's antisemitism. - mig
[2019-01-16 14:13:15] - mig: Wasn't there some sort of racial element to it as well? I know the former organizer was pushed out and was bitter about it... maybe even calling on the new organizers to step down? I can't remember the specifics, but didn't one side accuse the other of being too white or something? -Paul
[2019-01-16 14:08:52] - daniel: there's a little more to it. It's not just the attendance of Farrakhan rallies and the general chumminess with him, but also the apparent refusal to explicitly condemn his antisemitism and other racist statements. - mig
[2019-01-16 14:06:54] - more likely though, it's just posturing. ~a
[2019-01-16 14:06:23] - mig: apparently the house schedules it, yes. also, (potentially) the sotu will still happen, it'll just happen in writing. ~a
[2019-01-16 14:05:44] - a: is it pelosi's call on whether the SotU happens? - mig
[2019-01-16 14:02:20] - tldr, because of security being handled by the secret service and dhs, which are both in shutdown, the house is going to revert to the "old way" of handling the state of the union: in writing. ~a
[2019-01-16 14:01:32] - a: There was a segment on NPR about this women's march today. Basically there are a fair amount of people who don't like some of the organizers stances on things and its muddy'ing the water some. Apparently one has attended some Farrakhan rallies and another has said some anti Israel stuff. Whether that is enough for you? /shrug -Daniel
[2019-01-16 13:58:48] - nancy pelosi uninvites trump from the state of the union until the shutdown is over. ~a
[2019-01-16 13:40:22] - mig: what's it all mean? i was thinking of *maybe* going to that this weekend. should i care that the dnc isn't involved? ~a
[2019-01-16 12:45:48] - xpovos: i agree with you. spending is the only thing that i think could actually effect how much i retire with. and it will be very hard (imo) to predict future spending. ~a
[2019-01-16 12:44:53] - paul: no. that's the magic of the 4% swr (details). if there's a stock market crash or rampant inflation, nbd, unless it gets to unprecedented levels. ~a
[2019-01-16 12:38:30] - Unless we get some kind of singlepayer, in which case it'll go way down, probably. But my taxes will go up instead. -- Xpovos
[2019-01-16 12:38:07] - a: A complex variable, though. What do we spend money on? I spend the majority of my money on a handful of items: taxes, housing, medical, food. Once I retire, the percentages I pay on those will shift dramatically. I should pay far less on housing as I age (I'm not planning on moving, mortgage will be paid, and then it's just upkeep), and I'll need a lot less food once the kids are out. Medical will go up, even as a percentage. -- Xpovos
[2019-01-16 12:37:54] - https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/15/politics/democratic-national-committee-womens-march/index.html :o - mig
[2019-01-16 12:37:08] - a: But doesn't the circumstances change if there's a crash right after you retire or if inflation causes everything to get more expensive? -Paul
[2019-01-16 12:33:40] - maybe that's my whole thesis. (for the most part) only one variable goes into that equation. ~a
[2019-01-16 12:33:11] - . . . because . . . how much i need to retire with is (pretty much) only a function of spending. ~a
[2019-01-16 12:25:19] - agreed. but, i feel like most of those things will change when i retire, but won't change how much i retire with (today dollars). ~a
[2019-01-16 12:23:09] - a: Sure, it might not affect how much I need, but it could absolutely affect if I'm not track or not. I could make a strong argument for market returns over the next 20 years averaging 5% or 10% and that's a huge difference in how much money we'll end up with. -Paul
[2019-01-16 12:18:28] - paul: most of those things won't affect your spending (in today dollars). medical bills is the only one. ~a
[2019-01-16 12:15:26] - Xpovos: Maybe, but there's still plenty of time for market crashes or runaway inflation or unexpected medical bills or periods of unemployment. -Paul
[2019-01-16 12:11:18] - Paul: But we're older now and fewer of those unknowns are unknown. Or at least not to the same level. -- Xpovos
[2019-01-16 12:06:48] - I remember once using a calculator and inputting my worst case scenarios (low market return, rampant inflation, retiring a few years early, living for a long time, etc) and got some ridiculous number like needing $10 million in today's dollars in order to retire. That's when I stopped worrying about those calculations. Too dependent on future assumptions that nobody can predict. -Paul
[2019-01-16 12:05:30] - Daniel: But he also plans on living forever.
-Paul[2019-01-16 12:02:49] - Xpovos: Adrian might be shooting higher but Paul and I are only shooting for 2. So thats under your three. -Daniel
[2019-01-16 12:01:56] - I have my "budget" sheet that tries to track how we currently spend but I also have a part where I try to predict what those expenses would like in retirement (though still in today dollars) and generally my retirement expenses are less than my current spending but its hard to say if thats accurate or not. Like day care will go away but do other kid activities just replace it? -Daniel
[2019-01-16 12:00:26] - I love these kinds of calculations, but I tend to be more conservative/pessimistic. I also "plan on living forever," which is obviously unrealistic, so all of that makes my calculation rougher. My "safe withdrawl" percentage goes down. Fortunately, my expenses are also lower than most of you guys it seems. My FU nut is under $3M. -- Xpovos
[2019-01-16 11:58:47] - a: Right, totally agree. Slightly different assumptions leads to hugely different numbers. I'm assuming our expenses will drop a bunch in retirement since we won't have two kids to support AND I'm assuming housing (which is a huge amount of our expenses) will drop a bunch. -Paul
[2019-01-16 11:56:41] - paul: 2m != 10m because you are using today dollars, so it should be 2m != 5m. the second reason is, 60k is not the same as our expenses. i'd probably have to move to get to 60k. i'm actually a little surprised your expenses are 60k after taxes and including insurance. third reason, you are using a 3% safe withdraw rate, and i'm using a 3.9% safe withdraw rate. ~a
[2019-01-16 11:50:19] - a: I'm just doing some really rough calculations to see where we're at right now and I think we're on track. Assuming 5-10% return from the market over the next 20 years and no significant expenses or periods of unemployment, I like our chances to have a big enough nest egg for retirement. -Paul
[2019-01-16 11:48:02] - a: But I honestly also suspect I won't be going from full employment to $0 in income all at once. I'm hoping to have some sort of side hustle that I enjoy that I might continue to do for a few years. -Paul
[2019-01-16 11:46:29] - a: Hah, $10 million is a little different from $2 million, but I'm not surprised. In my experience just some slight changes in expectations (medical expenses, inflation, market performance, etc). I don't expect to retire in the house we have now. I suspect once the children have all moved out we'll downsize to someplace smaller (and maybe with a lower cost of living?). -Paul
[2019-01-16 11:27:03] - paul: "do you count equity in housing?" you do not. unless you're planning on selling it in retirement. basically, you only count things that are considered "liquid". houses are often considered illiquid. ~a
[2019-01-16 11:23:54] - paul: 4. the safe withdraw rates are all based on historical US data: nothing can predict the future. ~a
[2019-01-16 11:23:47] - paul: if you haven't read about "safe withdraw rate", there are a lot of assumptions: 1. the amount per year you withdraw is a flat dollar amount: $x/year starting with the day you retire. if the stock market does well *or* does badly you do not adjust this amount. 2. you can, however, adjust the withdraw rate for inflation. 3. it's assumed you'll hold something like ~25-50% bonds after retirement (i forget the exact number). ~a
[2019-01-16 11:16:04] - paul: no, i do not measure stuff per person. ~a
[2019-01-16 11:14:48] - paul: the today dollars amount for me is ~5m. after inflation included it'll probably be about double that: ~10m. ~a
[2019-01-16 11:14:36] - paul: like daniel i'm using "safe withdraw rate". i spend a lot of time on r/fi and a lot of people there (with published papers) suggest a withdraw rate of 4% or less. i take my expenses, including taxes and add in healthcare (currently paid for by my employer), and divide by 3.9%. that gives me the retirement amount in today dollars (sans inflation). ~a
[2019-01-16 11:12:34] - Paul: I don't think I currently count house equity but I guess I'm not sure why you couldn't? I do plan on not having a housing payment so sort of? I guess you would need a way to make the value liquid through a reverse mortgage or downsizing and cashing out some house profits in retirement? -Daniel
[2019-01-16 11:00:29] - Daniel: Sure. I'm 100% agreed about it being difficult to estimate things with so many unknowns. I was more wondering what number people were aiming for. $2 million seems pretty reasonable. Makes me feel pretty good about being on track, especially if I get to count housing equity. -Paul
[2019-01-16 10:48:52] - Paul: Also the "reasonable medical expenses" part of your statement is one of the things that I worry about. Estimating some sort of average medical cost over the years seems super hard to me. So I try but its one of the things I have the least confidence in. -Daniel
[2019-01-16 10:47:53] - Paul: It should be more than 30 since I'm using a number less than 4% but there are caveats on that about market returns and your spending. So there will probably have to be some level of adjustment in retirement. Especially the first ten years since how the market does in that time frame can have an outsized impact on your nest egg's ability to last. -Daniel
[2019-01-16 10:25:31] - Daniel: So your expectation is that once your family reaches $2.1 million in combined retirement fund value (do you count equity in housing?), you could in theory retire that day and never work again and have that money last you 30 years (including reasonable medical expenses)? -Paul
[2019-01-16 10:20:03] - Paul: Kind of. Its the rate that will probably last you X amount of time. So like a 4% rate is supposed to in theory last you 30 years. So some people use 3% for retiring early and that is supposed to be a real long time though I don't remember how long off the top of my head. I think I currently use 3.5%. -Daniel
[2019-01-16 09:51:30] - Daniel: I think so. Is that the rate at which the money you withdraw should equal about the amount the fund would appreciate so you could theoretically live off of it forever? -Paul
[2019-01-16 09:41:16] - Paul: I have a formula based on my annual expenses (though generally I try to calculate monthly) and a withdrawl rate. Are you familiar with the concept of safe withdrawal rate? So currently based on currently spending I need about 2.1 million for my household. -Daniel
[2019-01-16 09:34:49] - I know there's a ton of factors, especially with kids involved, but it seems like with $2 million you could invest it all in relatively safe dividend aristocrats and get around $60k in dividends alone to live off of. -Paul
[2019-01-16 09:33:17] - aDaniel: I'm almost embarrassed to ask this, because I feel like I should know the answer and you've talked about it so much, but what are you guys aiming for in terms of amount of money saved up before you think you're ready to retire? $1 million? $2 million? Is that combined for both you and your spouse or per person? -Paul
[2019-01-15 12:58:27] - Daniel: So I'm wondering if somebody wanted to get into travel hacking, if it makes sense / is allowed to set up a credit card affiliate program to profit off of the card opening even more. -Paul
[2019-01-15 12:57:50] - Daniel: Basically, yeah. I know the general idea behind travel hacking (sign up for a lot of cards to get the sign up bonus and then cancel the card. Rinse and repeat. I also know that credit card affiliate programs are fairly lucrative in terms of paying out per approved CC. -Paul
[2019-01-15 12:56:32] - a: Yeah, I'm guessing no single IPO is big enough to make a difference, but if there were 3 or so particularly massive ones (like there might be this year), then all of that money has to come from somewhere.... right? -Paul
[2019-01-15 12:44:54] - Paul: https://www.reddit.com/r/churning/comments/absgc2/what_card_should_i_get_weekly_thread_week_of/ - that might be of use? -Daniel
[2019-01-15 12:42:41] - paul: Travel Hacking? Is that trying to maximize your credit card rewards to get lots of free travel stuff? I am not familiar with that. -Daniel
[2019-01-15 12:37:31] - paul: "I wonder if the money to invest in those IPOs" . . . that is an interesting thought. it probably happens during every high-profile ipo. maybe it's why ipos are so staggered. one ipo = nbd . . . tons of ipos all at the same time = sadness. ~a
[2019-01-15 12:17:19] - Is anybody here into travel hacking and/or knowledgeable about credit card affiliate programs? -Paul
[2019-01-15 11:38:30] - Random thought: If this year sees a bunch of big IPOs like Uber and Lyft and Airbnb... I wonder if the money to invest in those IPOs will have to come out of current investments. -Paul
[2019-01-15 11:15:20] - a: 32% in two weeks! That's crazy. I also wouldn't be shocked to see them crush earnings this week either. I'm guessing they wouldn't have raised prices today otherwise. I can't complain too much, though. It's my second largest holding. -Paul
[2019-01-15 11:14:05] - a: I didn't want to jinx things, but I've been noticing that too (catching up). I had a long way to go, though, and it's been slow going. At least Netflix is crushing it for you in 2019. -Paul
[2019-01-15 11:13:30] - a: Oh, yeah, I wasn't trying to imply it wasn't. Honestly, abortions that are... uh... against liberal sensibilities probably are super common too. Doesn't China have a gender imbalance because they kept aborting female fetuses during the one child policy? -Paul
[2019-01-15 11:07:01] - yikes you've been closing the gap on 2018q3. you could foreseeably win this one too. ~a
[2019-01-15 11:01:44] - cesar sayoc was born here, but his father was an immigrant. and he's the first and only person i looked up. ~a
[2019-01-15 11:01:26] - paul: actually that's probably super common. ~a
[2019-01-15 10:55:31] - "Poor Jane Doe was killed by an illegal immigrant.... who was a card carrying NRA member wearing a MAGA hat..." -Paul
[2019-01-15 10:52:50] - Like, I get it that the reasons behind things matter to some degree, but the reasons also seem a little dwarfed by the larger issue of abortion (at least to me, maybe others would disagree). -Paul
[2019-01-15 10:52:10] - aaron: Heh, yeah. Maybe that's what struck me. It felt like such an abrupt change in politics halfway through. Like, I could see liberals nodding happily and conservatives shaking their fist during the first part, and then a complete switch during the second part, even though.... it doesn't seem like THAT much has changed? -Paul
[2019-01-15 10:40:34] - "books like harry potter and lord of the rings should be banned, because they teach misguided messages about satanism! kids should be learning about satanism from their schools." i don't know. i tried. ha ha. it's hard. that guy's a natural - aaron
[2019-01-15 10:31:25] - paul: ha ha, that seriously sounds like a deliberate attempt to craft a sentence which pisses off all sides of the political spectrum simultaneously. i'd struggle to think of something better - aaron
[2019-01-14 13:48:38] - a: Well, I guess that's also the case for abortions too.... genetic defects and whatnot... -Paul
[2019-01-14 13:48:03] - a: Well, that seems a little different, at least, because I feel like there are some generally agreed upon okay reasons to fire somebody, like they don't do a good job or are lazy or say there are genetic differences between the genders.
-Paul[2019-01-14 13:46:07] - paul: seems like a lot of things though. wanna fire someone for no reason given, that's often allowed. wanna fire someone because they black, that's often not allowed. ~a
[2019-01-13 17:26:11] - https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/13/health/james-watson-honors-stripped-intl/index.html "women should be allowed to abort a child for any reason, such as if a gene for homosexuality were found in the fetus" This one seemed odd to me for some reason. I guess because it seems like many people would be fine with an abortion for no given reason but if the wrong reason is given it becomes offensive? -Paul
[2019-01-11 15:21:55] - a: I don't think I saw it either, but I do recall the episode that apparently was retconned by his death (where Cotton was going to spit on the emperor of Japan but ended up forgiving the Japanese). -Paul
[2019-01-11 12:55:21] - yeah, seems about right. having read the wikipedia summary, i'm still fairly convinced i never saw that episode. weird, but i guess there's probably at least a few dozen i never saw: there were 13 fucking seasons. ~a
[2019-01-11 12:30:35] - a: I just read about how it happened, though, and it seems kinda perfect in a KotH sort of way. -Paul
[2019-01-11 11:05:30] - a: Yeah, me neither. I thought I knew the show pretty well but I don't recall Cotton dying. -Paul
[2019-01-11 11:05:08] - a: I loved King of the Hill, though, and I agree it seems to be underrated. I really thought it was clever how it was funny but also grounded. I also appreciated how it could address complex issues and not turn it into a right or wrong thing. -Paul
[2019-01-11 11:04:09] - paul: i don't think i saw that episode. at least not from my memory. ~a
[2019-01-11 11:03:36] - a: "Hell, even Cotton dies" What!? How did I miss that? Spoiler alert! -Paul
[2019-01-11 10:50:40] - article title is a little hokey, but it's about king of the hill from 2015. ~a
[2019-01-10 11:45:02] - nah. but if i (say) decided to put 10% into . . . i dunno upro or some small penny stock or something, it's not that much money. ~a
[2019-01-10 11:29:52] - a: Do you consider 3% to be risky? -Paul
[2019-01-10 11:00:27] - paul: nvda is 3% of my individual portfolio. (my individual portfolio is ridiculously small, so risky positions aren't actually that risky). ~a
[2019-01-10 10:55:00] - a: Oh, so you're also counting your mutual funds. Sorry, I should've been clear. NVDA is less than 2% of my individual stocks portfolio (Freedom Portfolio). It's around half of that if you include my index funds. -Paul
[2019-01-10 10:52:25] - paul: i hold ~30 individual positions (ira), and ~25 mutual-fund positions (taxable+ira+401k). yes, i count bitcoin: i classify it as its own type of holding i call "volatile". ~a
[2019-01-10 10:29:13] - a: Do you mind me asking how many positions are in your portfolio and if you count bitcoin? -Paul
[2019-01-10 09:50:08] - my nvda position is ~0.1% of my portfolio. no, i think 2% is plenty.
~a[2019-01-10 09:47:36] - a: You still believe in NVDA? I'm tempted to buy some on the big drop, but it still has had a huge run up the past few years and is an $85 billion market cap. Also, I still have a position that is almost 2% of my portfolio. Do I really want more? -Paul
[2019-01-09 13:07:16] - Daniel: Also, in reference to your comment on PvtM (not sure if you get notifications if/when I reply): Both the freedom portfolio and my Fantasy Investing 2019 portfolio have been outperforming the market this year (where the market has been generally up), which is more evidence that while my stocks underperform in down markets, they overperform in up markets. -Paul
[2019-01-09 12:57:11] - And I realize that I'm not a professional and not "getting paid to say things without making mistakes" but I don't see that as incredibly relevant because I don't think that not making mistakes is necessarily a huge part of the job description. Matthew Berry is a pretty well known fantasy analyst who has a show on ESPN and a daily podcast and he screws things up all the time. -Paul
[2019-01-09 12:55:37] - Just circling back to the weatherman thing... I think this bothers me because I could easily see myself making the same "mistake" and would hope there would be more understanding than there apparently is. I recorded some audio for a podcast a week or two ago and made a verbal gaffe in like the first 30 seconds (and it wasn't the only one at all). -Paul
[2019-01-08 17:21:46] - Daniel: I thought I had heard somewhere that the goals of hedge funds were a little different and that they weren't necessarily trying to beat the market, but instead provide a "hedge" (hence the name) in case the market goes down. If that is true, it might explain why they outperformed in 2018 and not the decade prior. -Paul
[2019-01-08 17:16:00] - Daniel: I'm honestly not very clear on the difference between mutual funds and hedge funds in terms of their structure and what they are permitted to do and what their goals are so I can't really answer your question. Sorry.
-Paul[2019-01-08 16:51:22] - Paul: Paul: Do hedge funds suffer the same problems as mutual funds in your mind? Or the same problems in regards to an individual investor? Aren't they able to freeze withdrawals if they want or something? I don't actually know. -Daniel
[2019-01-08 16:51:15] - Paul: Nailed it! -Daniel
[2019-01-08 16:42:52] - Daniel: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/hedge-funds-beat-the-sp-500-for-the-first-time-in-a-decade.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain Passive investing is for dummies.
-Paul[2019-01-08 15:11:49] - Then again, if the Greenberg incident happened today instead of 8-9 years ago, I'm not sure it resolves the same way. - mig
[2019-01-08 15:04:30] - mig: Huh, I don't even remember that happening. -Paul
[2019-01-08 14:48:06] - The incident isn't even covered on his wikipedia page which is kind of surprising. - mig
[2019-01-08 14:46:46] - It never got to the level w/ Greenberg who is still at ESPN, for whatever reason. I remember it being kind of a big deal but not sure if the outrage was really there. - mig
[2019-01-08 14:44:47] - just for some reference, I recall a long while ago ESPN radio host Mike Greenberg making the same mispronunciation. And that article references another weatherman getting fired for the mispronunciation as well. - mig
[2019-01-08 13:27:22] - if so, then yes, i think that's a horrible mistake that you've made. ~a
[2019-01-08 13:25:11] - paul: are the things you type immediately put on the air without anyone proofreading them first? ~a
[2019-01-08 13:18:22] - It even fits the whole analogy about me getting paid to type things without making mistakes.
-Paul[2019-01-08 13:18:02] - Right, I don't disagree that it is an pretty unfortunate coincidence that the way he incorrectly said King just happened to be a slur. It just seems like something not even worth getting upset about. What if I pounded my keyboard randomly and one of the words typed out was a slur. Is that some "horrible" mistake that I made? -Paul
[2019-01-08 13:00:20] - paul: " He's just not allowed to make a very small subset of mistakes apparently." - I think thats true for a lot of jobs. There are always some mistakes that are worse than others. Apparently this was one for that guy. Again I don't think its a terrible offense but mistaking King for Coon when talking about MLK is a pretty awful mistake. -Daniel
[2019-01-08 12:53:52] - some mistakes are worse than others. ~a
[2019-01-08 12:53:14] - yah. ~a
[2019-01-08 12:50:55] - a: Does it matter? I don't think the the weatherman is paid that amount to talk on the air without making mistakes. He's probably made hundreds. He's just not allowed to make a very small subset of mistakes apparently. -Paul
[2019-01-08 12:44:39] - paul: is the baby paid .25m/year to talk on the air without making any mistakes? ~a
[2019-01-08 12:36:49] - To throw out my own extreme analogy.... let's say a baby starts babbling and one of their favorite sounds just happens to be a slur... is that a problem? Or can we agree that the word itself has no power and it's instead about the intent behind it? -Paul
[2019-01-08 12:35:22] - I do understand that punishing people for accidents isn't out of the ordinary, though, even if the damage done is a little different. I guess I almost look at it a step before that, though. If it was truly an accidental slip of the tongue from talking too fast, should there even be any "damage"? If there is no malicious intent, what is the problem? -Paul
[2019-01-08 12:32:24] - a: Aw man... I was about to jump all over that analogy.
-Paul[2019-01-08 12:21:41] - a: For sure - just pointing out that just cause its an accident doesn't always get you off the hook, thats all. -Daniel
[2019-01-08 12:20:42] - daniel: i'm going to cut paul off at the pass: your analogy is a little extreme.
~a[2019-01-08 11:56:28] - But if he hadn't gotten fired I wouldn't be up in arms either. Maybe like two weeks unpaid leave or something would have been what I would have done? -Daniel
[2019-01-08 11:55:53] - Paul: On the fence. It sounds like an accident that he immediately corrected but oh man thats a REAL bad accident. I mean if you accidentally get a plane blown up because you accidentally mess up the engine repair you still might get fired for an accident. -Daniel
[2019-01-08 11:42:33] - paul: imo unjustified. i mean, on the other hand, it's literally his job to say words good. maybe it depends on which slur he accidentally used, and the context it was used in, but i think this one was probably an honest mistake. being an honest mistake probably isn't enough, though, right? plenty of people are fired for honest mistakes. ~a
[2019-01-08 11:36:49] - https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/07/us/new-york-meteorologist-racial-slur/index.html My memory is failing me so this is an honest question and not some attempt to belabor a point: Based on what we discussed about the baseball announcer, it sounds like people here generally think this is a justified firing? -Paul
[2019-01-08 11:17:47] - if you have ssh access to your wordpress instance, they may or may not let you use cron. "crontab -e" is the command i use to edit my crontab. ~a
[2019-01-07 13:18:32] - a: And I hope Miguel is no longer freaking out about him.
-Paul[2019-01-07 13:06:28] - paul: you and miguel were the only people who posted here about gorsuch before he was confirmed. i guess i said "it's always 'pathetic temper tantrums' when it's something you disagree with" but that was about it. ~a
[2019-01-07 12:00:48] - https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/neil-gorsuch-sonia-sotomayor-sixth-amendment-dissent.html Just throwing this out there for the people who were freaking out about Gorsuch. I think we're starting to see enough evidence that in many ways important to liberals (criminal justice), he is a better Justice than Garland would've been. -Paul
[2019-01-07 11:13:20] - a: I have no idea, but my guess is that it is (legal). The President has a lot of power these days thanks to congressional abdication of responsibilities (aided sometimes by the judiciary). -Paul
[2019-01-07 11:10:14] - is this legal? like, i'd imagine that the constitution lays out that he's supposed to get these guys confirmed, but i don't know what the punishment is if he fails to comply. even admits he "likes" not complying. ~a
[2019-01-07 10:13:56] - a: Ah, okay. Felt like more. I was going to lose 2017 anyway, but still, it's crazy that your 2nd best stock doubled. -Paul
[2019-01-07 10:07:33] - but nflx did double in the 2017 challenge. ~a
[2019-01-07 10:06:40] - paul: nope. second time. picked it in 2017. not in 2018. not in 2018q3. ~a
[2019-01-07 10:04:48] - a: I knew it, but it just hit home that you picked NFLX again (is that the third time?) and I have yet to pick it and I feel like NFLX keeps being a thorn in my side because it does so well and I can't explain how it's my second biggest holding and yet I never pick it. -Paul
[2019-01-07 10:00:52] - a: It looks like I do. -Paul
[2019-01-07 09:58:46] - a: I need to check. Bluehost isn't the most intuitive interface... -Paul
[2019-01-07 09:36:03] - then i'd try to use to your wordpress instance. do you have ssh access to it? ~a
[2019-01-07 09:34:53] - a: The API has some limits. I think it's 5 calls per minute and 500 per day. I think I've got it down to where the whole game makes 25 calls, so I could do 20 calls a day. I guess the question is how to automate it? I don't have a desktop at home that I leave running all day... -Paul
[2019-01-07 09:34:09] - btw, i use "cron" to run stuff every hour or whatever (it'll even let you do more complex stuff . . . like run it every day, plus every hour during weekdays 9-5). ~a
[2019-01-07 09:33:11] - it's up to you. if everything is completely automatic, and your API doesn't limit how many calls you can make per day, i'd run it at least every hour during the day, because . . . why not? but if there's some manual process to your stuff, once per week is fine too. ~a
[2019-01-07 09:27:56] - a: I think I finally got my python scripts figured out (although in retrospect I might need to retool how I store the data in terms of dictionary structure). The next step is figuring out what to do with it. Not sure I can run python scripts on my wordpress instance, so do I just run it weekly and have an update on the site? -Paul
[2019-01-04 22:59:37] - hah fun! ~a
[2019-01-04 22:45:33] - a: I don't have my dividend counter working yet, though, so maybe that will play a role? -Paul
[2019-01-04 22:43:34] - a: Wow, so I have some slightly different starting prices than you do (I am using the "open" price that is getting returned for 2019-01-02), but according to my calculations you and I are tied for first place out to two decimal points (7.92%) -Paul
[2019-01-04 22:14:35] - a: Ugh, Daniel and Matt's stupid index funds keep messing things up. The API doesn't have same day data for them so I need to grab the previous day's data... -Paul
[2019-01-04 16:13:46] - a: I would've if I knew it was going to provide 9% daily returns for two months straight.
-Paul[2019-01-04 16:11:19] - paul: true. but i doubt you'd put anything nearly that large into an investment so volatile that it could possibly give you 9% daily returns for two months straight
~a[2019-01-04 16:08:26] - a: Yeah, but I have more than 10k in my retirement account. -Paul
[2019-01-04 16:06:54] - well that's a different story. 109%260·2/12 = 42. so . . . uhhh, 10k turns into only .4million. ~a
[2019-01-04 15:58:35] - a: Heck, I'll even just take two months of 9% daily returns. I'm not greedy. -Paul
[2019-01-04 14:30:02] - a: Nice! FIRE here I come! -Paul
[2019-01-04 13:41:41] - paul. 109%260 is 5 billion. so $10k would turn into 50 trillion at the end of the year.
~a[2019-01-04 13:16:30] - paul: don't forget "git init". ~a
[2019-01-04 13:16:04] - paul: nah. i want you to finish your python script! ~a
[2019-01-04 13:08:49] - a: Do you want me to fill out the rest of your spreadsheet with other entrants? -Paul
[2019-01-04 13:08:13] - a: What's 9% a day extrapolated for the entire year? We're investing geniuses! -Paul
[2019-01-04 13:04:59] - paul: you and i are tied for the day: +9%! jfc. you're winning including wednesday and yesterday. +6% to +5%. ~a
[2019-01-04 12:45:21] - Daniel: Which is why I wasn't surprised at all to lose to the market during a downturn and why I am about as confident as I can be that when the market recovers, I will outperform and as long as the market generally goes up more than it goes down, that outperformance should make up for the underperformance and then some. -Paul
[2019-01-04 12:43:56] - Daniel: To piggyback off of what we were talking about (both here and on PvtM), the Freedom Portfolio is up over 6% right now versus the S&P around 3% and Nasdaq around 4%. Obviously one day is about as small a sample size as you can get, but this is what I consistently see most days: the Freedom Portfolio tracks the market directionally but with more extreme moves. -Paul
[2019-01-04 11:45:43] - a: So, yeah, you see my Q3 big outperformance today? 3/5ths of that is carrying over to my Fantasy Investing 2019 portfolio.
-Paul[2019-01-04 11:45:09] - a: I guess at the very least I should've made my picks public on January 1st. I was too busy writing up my Freedom Portfolio recap. -Paul
[2019-01-04 11:44:39] - a: Oh, yeah, sorry. I picked the ones I mentioned on Facebook: AMZN, MELI, SQ, IQ, TDOC. -Paul
[2019-01-04 11:43:29] - paul: at least tell me whether you picked SQ or not?
~a[2019-01-04 11:29:25] - a: Fair, I think a lot of knowledgeable people did know how important that is (and it was also one of the big benefits to bitcoin that I liked), but it wasn't something you heard too much about in the mainstream except tangentially to things like silk road.
-Paulprev <-> next