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[2019-08-07 14:44:07] - Paul: I get loosely the idea about being concerned about the debt but if its a major issue I definitely see the D's as the more responsible fiscal party. R's talk a good game but mostly just actively make it worse. -Daniel
[2019-08-07 14:42:51] - "Exactly". nah. the debt-to-gdp ratio went down a lot. not exactly. ~a
[2019-08-07 14:42:21] - His point is that in a family budget it will be "neutral" in that insurance premiums would go away (but replaced by the tax increase) to pay for the healthcare. -Daniel
[2019-08-07 14:42:13] - a: "*only* 1%/year over inflation" Exactly! Even this best example was still pretty objectively bad. If I was horribly buried by credit card debt AND still racking up new debt, should I get kudos for only racking up new debt at a rate slightly higher than inflation? That's an incredibly low bar. -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:41:36] - Paul: But if they raise taxes? Bernie hasn't hidden from the fact that universal healthcare would come from a tax increase. So shouldn't that help your fear? -Daniel
[2019-08-07 14:40:14] - Daniel: But now we have, depending on how you count it, a majority of the front-runners seeming to have latched onto these things and openly advocating for it. These have the potential to blow up the budget more than Republicans could ever hope to. -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:39:03] - Daniel: Oh, I don't think Republicans have been much better. In fact, the evidence of my lifetime would argue they have been worse, to your point. This is less about what Democrats have done in the past than what they are proposing now. Things like the green new deal and universal healthcare and other things were fringe ideas before. -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:37:01] - paul: by my own metric, the majority of the responsibility came from *both* a strong economy and some amazing debt stabilization (*only* 1%/year over inflation during a super strong economy surge). ~a
[2019-08-07 14:36:40] - In my head the R plan (lowering taxes) for dealing with the debt has been tried and has failed so I'm not sure what their next plan is or if they have a next plan or if they even acknowledge that they need a new plan? -Daniel
[2019-08-07 14:35:46] - At what point in the dealing with the debt / deficit process with R's admit we need to raise taxes? Ever? Is there an R plan to deal with debt? I guess I'm curious why you are afraid of D's when it comes to debt when I think R's are much scarier when it comes to debt. -Daniel
[2019-08-07 14:21:33] - a: I was talking about now, but most of that probably applies to the 90s too. -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:21:14] - a: My point is that even by your own metric, it looks like the majority of the responsibility came from a strong economy and not some amazing debt reduction. -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:20:58] - now? or the 90s? ~a
[2019-08-07 14:20:34] - a: We've been at (relative) peace for decades in that our military operations have largely been of our own choosing. We've got a pretty good economy for around a decade running with low unemployment and we're STILL racking up huge debts. -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:20:31] - those years are my gold standard of fiscal responsibility, yes. what was wrong with them? i guess your point was that we got lucky? maybe, i guess. ~a
[2019-08-07 14:19:07] - a: Okay, then yes, you are right that by your metric is important and that somehow means I was wrong about the debt going down under Clinton.
I'm fine conceding that point, because my main point was that if those years are your gold standard of fiscal responsibility....that's a low bar. -Paul[2019-08-07 14:17:04] - "I get that it's an important metric" that's all i am saying. maybe i'd go a little further and say that it's "the" important metric. ~a
[2019-08-07 14:13:47] - a: We're not economists. Again, I get that it's an important metric, but it isn't what we were talking about. If I said AMZN stock went up and you looked at the price per share was lower and you came back and said "WTF?". Could I just say "I meant the P/E went up, that's a far more important metric that all stock analysts use"? -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:12:00] - anywho, your fred link is misleading regardless. it's not even inflation adjusted. ~a
[2019-08-07 14:10:38] - debt-to-gdp ratio, man. it's the metric every economist will use. mince words if you want
~a[2019-08-07 14:10:36] - a: I don't think it's just a Republican talking point. I think it's both sides at this point. -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:10:06] - a: Or, I suppose to use the exact terminology I used before, if I said my "debt went down". -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:10:05] - it's a republican talking point i think (think it was dick cheny). that debts don't matter. as long as your gdp is going up faster than your debt, it is all good man. ~a
[2019-08-07 14:09:30] - a: Sure, I get that it's an important metric, but if I said I "paid down my debt" and in reality my debt went up but I got a raise at work.... I think that's wildly misleading of me at best and lying at worst. -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:08:25] - every economist will tell you that debt relative to gdp is what you care about. same thing when you aren't looking at countries: companies are the same way (debt-to-equity or debt-to-revenue). households are the same way (mortgage relative to income). ~a
[2019-08-07 14:06:19] - a: I guess it's also hard to tell what years to attribute to who. Regardless, I think it's fair to say that if the debt went down at all, it was an almost imperceptible amount. I agree that the "best" combo seems to be a Democratic President with a Republican Congress, although really small sample size. -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:04:50] - a: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN This looks more like what I was expecting. I guess it's possible it went down a tiny bit at the end, but it doesn't look like it. -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:03:11] - paul: yes. and ok. ~a
[2019-08-07 14:02:50] - a: Federal debt as a percentage of GDP? Is that a normal metric in a situation like this? I usually just think of the federal debt as an absolute number. -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:01:45] - a: https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2010/sep/23/bill-clinton/bill-clinton-says-his-administration-paid-down-deb/ I guess it depends on how you think about the "debt". -Paul
[2019-08-07 14:01:40] - paul: (regarding "you are" here is my source fred) ~a
[2019-08-07 14:00:41] - ties between a divided government and deficit spending is not as correlated as the tie between a democrat in the executive and deficit spending. ~a
[2019-08-07 14:00:40] - you are. ~a
[2019-08-07 14:00:27] - a: I don't think the debt even went down under Clinton, although I could be wrong about that. -Paul
[2019-08-07 13:58:42] - a: We need a divided government so that the acceleration in the increase in the debt slows down. -Paul
[2019-08-07 13:57:44] - paul: i hear you, we need to get a democrat back in the executive so we can get that debt back down? ~a
[2019-08-07 13:39:10] - Daniel: I look at the VA and how it's (mis)managed and I look at our already ballooning debt and entitlement obligations and yes, I even look at how universal healthcare works in other countries and I'm largely very fearful of what that means for healthcare in this country if it should pass. -Paul
[2019-08-07 13:38:01] - Daniel: I am frightened by what the Democrats might do, yes. I understand that it's a strong word, but I stand by it. I am just as frightened by universal healthcare as a democratic voter might be frightened of Republicans reducing banking regulation or lowering the minimum wage or something. -Paul
[2019-08-07 12:33:19] - Paul: I guess what I'm getting at is why are those "frightening"? That seems like a strong word to me. You are scared of universal healthcare? I don't totally understand opposition to universal healthcare but I definitely don't get a fear of it. -Daniel
[2019-08-07 12:25:47] - Daniel: I assume you mean the D pres + D congress and not the doxxing of donors? Because so many of current front-runners for the presidential nomination have explicitly endorsed policies that formerly were considered fringe ideas, like universal healthcare and student loan forgiveness and reparations and so forth. -Paul
[2019-08-07 12:25:19] - Paul: Mostly its a /shrug for me on the joaquin / donor thing. Its public info so...? I don't wish any people on there violence or anything but if their friends and family start challenging them some on their politics then sure. -Daniel
[2019-08-07 12:23:59] - Paul: Why is it frightening? -Daniel
[2019-08-07 11:28:56] - https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/06/joaquin-castro-trump-donors-1450672 Perhaps related to the discussion at hand: What do people think of this? Acceptable? Laudable? Deplorable? Other? -Paul
[2019-08-07 10:40:06] - Xpovos: But one of those Democratic candidates with a democratic congress too is... frightening. -Paul
[2019-08-07 10:39:28] - Xpovos: I thought about that some, and while I basically reject the premise of having to vote R or D, in the hypothetical, I think I might consider D in the hopes that the Republicans retain control of some of congress and we get what is probably the best likely scenario of Republicans obstructing a Democratic president. -Paul
[2019-08-07 10:37:43] - Xpovos: And worst of all, the candidates who seem to make the most sense (to me) are the ones who keep polling at around 0-1%, while the people who seem to be the craziest/most dangerous (excepting Biden, I guess, who has his own issues) are the leaders. -Paul
[2019-08-07 10:37:18] - But also depressing. Because out of the entire stage there are very few that I'd vote for over Trump, even acknowledging how awful he is. I'll still be third party, but in the classic Gun To Your Head scenario, where I have to pick either the R or the D, Trump is going to beat almost all of them. -- Xpovos
[2019-08-07 10:35:08] - In our first debate bit we noted that "there's a 50% chance that the next POTUS was on stage on of these two nights." That is both true, and terrifying. I think I'm in agreement with pretty much everyone on the mboard that DJT is a terrible president, but that there's essentially a 100% chance that it's either him, or one of those 20 bozos. That makes the debates important. -- Xpovos
[2019-08-07 10:33:25] - a: So I enjoy debating with Andrew the horse-race aspect of who is going to win the Democratic nomination, but I hate pretty much anything that politicians or their supporters say because it's almost always so stupid, inciteful, and tribalistic (my side can do no wrong and I always assume the worst of your side immediately). -Paul
[2019-08-07 10:32:02] - a: To me, it's a lot like professional sports. I enjoy the competition and the drama of who is going to win and what is going to happen, but I largely hate a lot of the "extra" stuff like debating whether you can root for somebody who knocked out his wife or if it's okay for players to kneel during the anthem or stupid fans cheering player injuries. -Paul
[2019-08-07 10:26:36] - is anybody else like totally tired of american politics? i'm so numbed to it, and it's so totally depressing, that i want to tune it out. at the same time, it's like a train wreck, where i can't look away. i guess i'm arguing both sides of this! it's like a weird duality of extremes. ~a
[2019-08-06 00:08:52] - that's right. i used the website. ~a
[2019-08-05 23:18:36] - a: I think I found the problem with the SoFi referral between us. I think it says you need to use the latest version of their app, and I'm guessing you used a referral link from their website? -Paul
[2019-08-05 10:43:50] - a: Heh, fair. It's notable to me because it always hangs out on the edge of 6% of my portfolio. When the market is up (and my other stocks are up more), Disney's % drops. When the market is down (and my other stocks are down more), Disney % goes up. It's something I notice that is pretty reliable. -Paul
[2019-08-05 10:42:08] - disney was a weird mention. it's losing to the s&p500 and vti and vt. so based on that: my hedge is owning a bunch of vtsax
~a[2019-08-05 10:41:42] - yeah. ~a
[2019-08-05 10:29:28] - a: Right, and that's the other obvious problem too. Just like how not every mass shooter shows warning signs. -Paul
[2019-08-05 10:29:04] - not every suicidal person shows signs of depression. ~a
[2019-08-05 10:28:39] - a: Yeah, but I don't know how we do that without frankly discriminating against people with depression or other things. Do you know if the US has a higher suicide rate than other "developed" countries (however we define it)? -Paul
[2019-08-05 10:27:22] - a: You know what's strangely kinda my most notable hedge? Disney. Whenever all my other stocks are down huge, it's almost always down a fraction of the amount and I own more Disney than I do btc. -Paul
[2019-08-05 10:27:14] - more than most? i would have loved there to be fewer guns in the hands of suicidal. ~a
[2019-08-05 10:26:11] - yeah i know. ~a
[2019-08-05 10:25:33] - a: https://everytownresearch.org/firearm-suicide/ Assuming this site is accurate, we basically see a mass shootings worth of gun suicides every single day in the US, but that doesn't get plastered on the front page and get social media's blood pumping like a random mass shooting. -Paul
[2019-08-05 10:23:38] - a: "or that we're killing each-other with guns? what a bad morning to be a democrat" I know you're probably aware, but it's worth noting that we were killing ourselves (literally, in terms of suicides) with guns a lot before the past few days and we almost certainly will continue to do so. They just don't get the same media attention as mass shootings. -Paul
[2019-08-05 10:22:12] - which is worse? that we are fucking up our economy with tariffs or that we're killing each-other with guns? what a bad morning to be a democrat or a fiscal conservative. ~a
[2019-08-05 10:22:07] - a: I still have much more invested in equities vs btc/precious metals. I suppose what I really should've done is sold some puts, but that would've required me having cash on the sidelines. -Paul
[2019-08-05 10:20:52] - what about a 2% increase in gold and a 2% increase in silver? aobc +4%, rgr +2%. looks like the market is thinking doom and gloom. (that and gun violence always increases gun sales) ~a
[2019-08-05 10:11:14] - a: Unfortunately, no, a 10% pop in bitcoin isn't going to make up for the bloodbath of my stocks the past few days.
-Paul[2019-08-05 10:07:56] - a: Oh, wow. Didn't even notice that. -Paul
[2019-08-05 10:07:36] - the bits will soften the blow. ~a
[2019-08-05 10:05:46] - Looks like a good day to not check the ye ole portfolio. -Paul
[2019-08-02 15:49:59] - there also might be a #4 that the glossed over: i don't know if i have a sofi *money* account
~a[2019-08-02 15:43:48] - a: I feel confident about (2) and (3). Less so about (1). -Paul
[2019-08-02 15:43:09] - "A 'successful referral' (1) uses your unique referral link (2) opens a SoFi Money account and (3) funds the account with at least $100 by aug 19" ~a
[2019-08-02 15:32:34] - a: I hope it works. There was no clear way to do it from the site your link pointed me to, but I did eventually sign up using the same internet browser session. It never asked for a referral code, though. -Paul
[2019-08-02 15:20:36] - sent. ~a
[2019-08-02 15:15:35] - a: Well, I don't have an account, so I think you would have to refer me. Can you find a referral code somewhere? -Paul
[2019-08-02 15:10:53] - or vice versa. ~a
[2019-08-02 15:10:48] - ok how do i refer you? ~a
[2019-08-02 15:06:16] - a: Not sure if you would qualify or not. "Any registered user of SoFi is eligible to participate in the giveaway." It sounds like you should be. -Paul
[2019-08-02 14:53:22] - well i have an account, but i haven't opened the "invest" or "save" sections. ~a
[2019-08-02 13:47:24] - a: Basically one of those new-ish tech companies looking to break into the stodgy finance industry by burning money to acquire lots of users. (I don't know if they are actually losing money or not). -Paul
[2019-08-02 13:46:31] - a: They do stuff like online savings accounts and personal loans. -Paul
[2019-08-02 13:46:21] - a: Uh... it's kinda like one of those online bank wannabees? FinTech. Maybe? -Paul
[2019-08-02 13:45:23] - i have sofi, but i don't know what it is. what is sofi and why do i have it? ~a
[2019-08-02 13:44:39] - https://www.sofi.com/50-50-50-giveaway/ Anybody here use SoFi and want to refer me?
-Paul[2019-08-02 13:37:19] - a: Quite possibly. I legit pulled those numbers last night before SC2, so I wasn't trying to time anything. If I knew Square was going to collapse, I wouldn't have just timed when I pulled data for my meaningless game.
-Paul[2019-08-02 13:36:12] - and over night that 50% turned into a 40%
~a[2019-08-02 13:34:35] - https://paulvsthemarket.com/fantasy-investing-july-2019-standings/ New fantasy investing standings are out! Guess whose portfolio is up over 50% year to date? (Hey, I need something to feel good about today) -Paul
[2019-08-02 10:39:57] - a:
Yeah, they released earnings, although honestly I thought everything looked really good. I guess their growth is slowing? But I'm having trouble finding some hard data on it. Either way, this strikes me as an overreaction. Cash app growth is killing it! -Paul[2019-08-02 10:11:59] - well they had an "earnings call" last night. i guess it didn't go well. ~a
[2019-08-02 09:54:16] - a: What's up with Square?
-Paul[2019-08-01 16:31:39] - https://www.roanoke.com/sports/college/va_tech/virginia-tech-defensive-coordinator-bud-foster-to-step-down/article_85b9637a-b484-11e9-9d6f-1f0daa2e904d.html Not sure who follows Hokie football here, but apparently 2019 will be Bud Foster's last season as D coordinator. -Paul
[2019-08-01 14:41:59] - a: Right now Shopify is in a tug of war with my JIB stocks (JD, IQ, BZUN) over whether my portfolio is up or down.
-Paul[2019-08-01 14:40:55] - "i went" . . . ah yes i missed that part. i think i read it as "it went" (it being the market from the previous sentence). ~a
[2019-08-01 14:39:14] - a: I was talking about my portfolio, but I also think my comment was delayed a bit by an internet outage at work.
-Paul[2019-08-01 14:38:38] - paul: are you talking about the s&p500? i even looked up the s&p500 when you posted that (14:22) and it wasn't "up 0.6%" then (or now). what are you referring to? ~a
[2019-08-01 14:22:35] - Holy crap, what a turnaround for the market off of Trump's tariff tweet. I went from being up around 2.5% for today to now being up around 0.6%. -Paul
[2019-08-01 12:53:23] - speed of speech isn't really the limiting factor actually . . . it's how many pauses you have between thoughts. the brain can catch up in those pauses and if they're absent or too short, then the brain can't keep up. ~a
[2019-08-01 12:52:33] - a: I would be impressed if you could listen to the Rampant Discourse podcast reliably at 2x speed because I believe I talk way too fast oftentimes. -Paul
[2019-08-01 12:51:52] - sure, then i'd stick with 1.25 (or 1.5 like xpovos says). 1.25 is better than 1 for everybody almost regardless of the topic. the only exception to that is doug collins (republican house member). ironically he's from georgia, and talks way too fast. ~a
[2019-08-01 12:49:16] - I think the only podcast I listen to at normal speed is Conversations with Tyler, and that's mostly because Tyler goes through topics so fast, and I need time to think things through. -- Xpovos
[2019-08-01 12:48:29] - a: That's way too active listening for me. I prefer kicking off a podcast and listening without having to constantly tweak speeds. -Paul
[2019-08-01 12:48:09] - Paul: I've eventually shifted to 1.5 for all of my podcasts. I just have too many. Now 1.5 feels "slow" sometimes, so I'm thinking I'll move to 2x soon. -- Xpovos
[2019-08-01 12:47:51] - . . . even one person, depending on what they're talking about, i'll change the speed mid-paragraph. ~a
[2019-08-01 12:47:18] - i <3 speeding up audio and video. the important thing is being able to change the speed. some people talking at 1.25x is best and other people 2x is best. ~a
[2019-08-01 12:46:38] - a: If you are able to do that. I've tried and just prefer the standard speed. -Paul
[2019-08-01 12:45:56] - or listen at 1.5x and have 72 minutes free? ~a
[2019-08-01 12:41:26] - Daniel: https://anchor.fm/rampant-discourse/episodes/020---Second-Democratic-Presidential-Debate-of-2019-e4qap1 Looking to get up to date and have 2 hours free?
-Paul[2019-08-01 12:40:59] - Daniel: https://www.vox.com/2019/7/31/20749675/joe-30330-biden-debate-closing-statement -Paul
[2019-08-01 12:17:41] - Both are a transfer of information? -Daniel
[2019-08-01 12:17:24] - Paul: I didn't hear about that from Biden. Though I haven't been paying super close attention to the D field yet. -Daniel
[2019-08-01 12:11:44] - Xpovos: I'm a little disappointed that continues to be the consensus. It's like we all expect the gaffes and old-man moments from him so we ignore that he seemingly got confused on the difference between a website and texting a phone number. -Paul
[2019-08-01 11:57:58] - Biden is just as damaged as ever--but critically, not more than before. My pick is still sound. -- Xpovos
[2019-08-01 09:53:57] - Gogo Shopify.-Paul
[2019-08-01 09:29:44] - a: I'm still not worried about those two. I think they're too left for he party, although they seem to be pulling others with them. -Paul
[2019-08-01 07:02:36] - wait, which one of us has sanders and warren? ~a
[2019-07-31 21:24:30] - I'm feeling a lot less confident in my first pick of Kamala Harris in the draft right now. -Paul
[2019-07-31 16:10:27] - a: No idea! I've only ever been there once? Twice? I told Gurkie to ask around to find out since she goes there much more often and should know more people to talk to. -Paul
[2019-07-31 16:09:29] - paul: i want to buy shares in your island games purchase! who do you think you'll get to manage it? how much is rent? what's their current revenue?
~a[2019-07-31 13:18:34] - we need more arbitrage. ~a
[2019-07-31 11:31:58] - Definitely adds another layer of strategy to trying to predict performance multiple years ahead. -Daniel
[2019-07-31 11:31:43] - a: https://twitter.com/TMFInnovator/status/1156574428425326594 Not sure if you can access without twitter, but this was some good insight into why 2U is down big today. It sounds like a lot of my concerns (why I sold) are arriving faster than I thought. Education is getting disrupted by smaller players. -Paul
[2019-07-31 11:31:21] - Trade for your 1st round pick unless its top 3 then the next year I get it unless its top 6 then after that I get your 2nd round pick. Would be interesting to see what the cost is for something like that. -Daniel
[2019-07-31 11:25:51] - Daniel: How about the idea of protected draft picks like in the NBA? -Paul
[2019-07-31 11:25:42] - *Mr Burns steeple hands* -Daniel
[2019-07-31 11:25:25] - Paul: I wonder what the most complex trade I could come up with that I could get someone to agree to... -Daniel
[2019-07-31 10:42:46] - Daniel: As a player, though, I certainly see the merit. -Paul
[2019-07-31 10:42:37] - Daniel: As the commissioner (who would be required to keep track of these trades because nobody else remembers them a year later, let alone multiple years later) I hate this idea.
-Paul[2019-07-31 10:25:19] - Fantasy Football People: Would trading picks for future seasons 2 or more years in the future ever be of value? Is that just to far in the future for a non dynasty league? What about more complex trades with conditional elements (eg trading three highest non keeper picks for your three lowest non keeper picks next season)? Just wondering about trade frameworks. -Daniel
[2019-07-31 10:10:52] - you did but just because you sold for a reason doesn't mean it is "worth" above or below it's current price. i.e. buying at 15 != buying at 35. ~a
[2019-07-31 10:10:50] - a: Although it does look like an overreaction. Looks like their revenue is growing nicely but earnings are projected to way undershoot estimates. I guess the big question is why. -Paul
[2019-07-31 10:08:43] - a: No idea. I don't know what happened. Was thinking of looking into it later. I sold for a reason, though.
-Paul[2019-07-31 10:08:14] - should i buy some?
~a[2019-07-31 10:08:08] - yikes. ~a
[2019-07-31 09:47:18] - a: Holy crap, TWOU down over 50% this morning. Glad I sold when I did... -Paul
[2019-07-31 09:45:24] - mig: Want to go halfsies and buy it out?
-Paul[2019-07-31 09:45:04] - I really wanted one of the moderates to retort to the whole criticism of them not having "big ideas" that just because an idea is big doesn't mean it's smart. -Paul
[2019-07-31 09:01:32] - mig: "can't and shouldn't fight for" is different from "can't and shouldn't do". i think if the office of the president (or a candidate) wants to try to do something that they don't have the constitutional ability to do, that doesn't mean they couldn't/shouldn't try to propose stuff. ~a
[2019-07-31 08:59:58] - paul: yes, like bob iger. ~a
[2019-07-31 01:32:59] - “I don’t understand why anybody goes to all the trouble of running to be the president of the United States to talk about what we really can’t do and shouldn’t fight for.†I actually would prefer a presidential candidate who admits that there are in fact limits to what they can do. I would have thought that this penchant for promising unicorns and ponies unconditionally is how we got Trump, but what the fuck do I know? - mig
[2019-07-30 23:21:39] - aaron/paul/gurkie: island games is closing. - mig
[2019-07-30 22:34:13] - Like Bob Iger? -Paul
[2019-07-30 22:18:45] - they're paid what the market will bear? ~a
[2019-07-30 22:15:33] - a: It's a systemic problem then.
-Paul[2019-07-30 21:59:59] - meh. here are a bunch of schools that average 170-230 in 2012. with 15% inflation that brings it to 200-270. and you've got to think college revenues have been beating inflation. if the average is close to 300, then the max could easily be at least double that. ~a
[2019-07-30 20:48:55] - a: But $400k!? -Paul
[2019-07-30 19:06:34] - who says teachers at harvard law are underpaid? nobody. nobody says that. ~a
[2019-07-30 16:40:51] - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/30/elizabeth-warrens-tax-returns-how-she-built-her-fortune.html "Mann earned about $400,000 from his job at Harvard." Wow! Who says teachers are underpaid?
-Paul[2019-07-30 13:04:38] - a: That's a good point. I think you're right. Deflection is an oft-used tool in his toolbox. -Paul
[2019-07-30 13:02:58] - paul: (my opinion) he'd deflect. instead of claiming to be the tallest and strongest person in the world, he'd instead argue that he could beat joe biden up in a fist fight. of course he'd be wrong, biden would wipe the floor with him, but it's still the direction he'd go in. ~a
[2019-07-30 12:25:26] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogma_(film) I had forgotten that Matt Damon has played TWO characters named "Loki". -Paul
[2019-07-30 11:57:05] - I kinda don't think he would answer. I almost wonder if he would claim to be the tallest and strongest person in the world as well. -Paul
[2019-07-30 11:56:03] - https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/30/trump-claims-hes-least-racist-person-says-biden-democrat-favorite/1858853001/ What do you think Trump's answer would be if somebody asked him if there was some thing that he wasn't either the most or least in the world at? -Paul
[2019-07-30 11:35:31] - a: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-siemens-gamesa-r-results/price-pressure-kicks-siemens-gamesa-shares-to-four-month-low-idUSKCN1UP0EU Yeah, full year guidance and margins decreased. -Paul
[2019-07-30 11:34:16] - a: I don't see anything in the regular places I check. There might be more analysis later in the day. When it's not obvious based on the earnings (ie, revenue and earnings are both up), my best guess is that guidance disappointed. -Paul
[2019-07-30 11:31:09] - a: Oh yeah! I saw that on the competition and was wondering what happened. Thought you could tell me.
-Paul[2019-07-30 11:29:13] - i guess it's because earnings fell? revenue is way up though? so weird. ~a
[2019-07-30 11:27:42] - paul, help. i can't find out why this foreign company went down like 20% today. their twitter is pretty active, but mostly full of "things are awesome" posts. wikipedia doesn't have any recent posts. no recent press releases or news. i can't find their quarterly reports. ~a
[2019-07-30 11:25:34] - a: And then, I suppose you should probably drop your lowest conviction stock. -Paul
[2019-07-30 11:25:21] - a: Sure. But as somebody who believes that individuals CAN beat the market, I believe it's possible to measure/guess/estimate (whichever word you want to use) the value of one position over another. Assuming you are comfortable with the level of diversification you have (10 stocks? 20? 50?), then you shouldn't really add another position unless you think it's better than what you currently have. -Paul
[2019-07-30 11:17:28] - paul: well, you brought up diversification, so i'll just say i agree with your "obviously it's a little more complicated" sentiment. adding a new position to my portfolio brings me closer to matching the market: it dilutes my losses as much as it dilutes my gains. overall i agree that every new position i add to my portfolio should be a "good company", and beating the market is the goal, but "better than what i have" isn't measurable. ~a
[2019-07-30 10:38:39] - a: Obviously it's a little more complicated than that with diversification and whatnot, but I do sometimes wonder when adding my 25th position or whatever if I would just be better off adding to a higher conviction stock I already own. -Paul
[2019-07-30 10:37:33] - a: I saw a really interesting quote that is incredibly obvious, but I guess something that I don't always think about. Paraphrasing it: Every new position you add to your portfolio needs to be better than what you currently have or else you are diluting your returns. -Paul
[2019-07-30 09:48:14] - Xpovos: Or, is it possible it's mistaken searches based on mispellings? People looking for "guillermo del toro"? -Paul
[2019-07-30 09:47:36] - Xpovos: Is there some other meaning we don't know about? Maybe some obscure hot chocolate chain somewhere?
-Paul[2019-07-30 00:02:03] - a: 50% 20 years ago still seems like a lot of voting power to me. -Daniel
[2019-07-29 17:00:55] - It's completely annual periodicity. The troughs are July. That made me think: Bastille Day. But wouldn't that be a peak? I'd expect that to be a peak. The peaks seem to be the winter months. November-January. Search trend data is based on U.S. location searches, as well. -- Xpovos
[2019-07-29 17:00:47] - daniel: "I would agree that its scope is getting larger as mutual funds grow". so we agree then. it's something where the scope has changed. a lot
"mutual funds have had a lot of voting power" not really. mutual funds were like 50% of the us market in 2000 (~4.5/(1116.56/3020.97*25.6)). and 75% of the market in 2020 (~18/25.6). 30 years ago things were different. ~a[2019-07-29 16:59:54] - The data indicates... maybe? -- Xpovos
[2019-07-29 16:59:41] - a: Frequency effect research. Guillotine has come up a LOT around me recently. I have a revolutionary minded friend, I have a degree in PSCI with a concentration in violent political change, there are news stories about actual French guillotines being sold, etc. There was enough of it that I wondered if the word was being used more now than in the past. -- Xpovos
[2019-07-29 16:50:02] - xpovos: i would normally say something along the lines of "yeah, its probably a normal yearly change" except fuck-me that's goes from 25% to 100%? that's some crazy-high ratio. i don't get it. i'd mostly guess it's a bug in google trends. how did you find it? ~a
[2019-07-29 16:47:45] - Guillotine, as a search term, has a periodicity that surprised me. Additionally, there does seem to be a positive trend over the past decade, as the frequency at the troughs is roughly double now what it was ten years ago, vs. the peaks. https://i.imgur.com/mAFbRd1.png (Google Trends data) -- Xpovos
[2019-07-29 16:46:11] - a: Yeah I would agree that its scope is getting larger as mutual funds grow but I imagine that mutual funds have had a lot of voting power for at least like 30 years now or something? -Daniel
[2019-07-29 16:41:53] - "if its a problem its one thats been around for awhile now" i more-or-less disagree with this. it's a "problem" that is growing. it's like global warming. it's just getting worse and worse as time goes on: there's not like there's some threshold. ~a
[2019-07-29 16:39:43] - a: Honestly I'd never thought about the voting aspects of index funds, or really just mutual funds, before. I get that they are getting bigger and bigger but if its a problem its one thats been around for awhile now. -Daniel
[2019-07-29 15:20:47] - aaron/Paul: Oooh, nice diversity. I love that Boudica gives a reward at being weaker, that was something that was needed. -- Xpovos
[2019-07-29 14:06:08] - aaron: I have not! Which is weird, considering they call me out by name in that link. Thanks! -Paul
[2019-07-29 13:50:27] - paul: https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2083654/photos-all-age-and-i-leaders-and-wonders-expansion/page/1 have you seen the spoilers for the new through the ages expansion? - aaron
[2019-07-29 13:50:17] - after more investigation, no. bogle left as the chairman in the 90s. ~a
[2019-07-29 13:44:42] - a: You think it's more than a coincidence? -Paul
[2019-07-29 13:44:17] - it's weird they waited until right after bogle died (i was reminded by the "related stories" from your link). ~a
[2019-07-29 12:08:19] - a: https://www.inquirer.com/business/vanguard-fund-manager-voting-right-independent-shareholder-proxy-20190429.html I thought they largely voted along with the company recommendations. Anyway, it sounds like they're changing how they do things now anyway. -Paul
[2019-07-29 12:07:13] - paul: "keeps their hands out of things". does this mean they don't vote? not voting (in such a *large* block) could potentially have bad side effects as well. ~a
[2019-07-29 12:05:30] - a: I have no idea what a good solution is, but I do agree it's something that warrants discussing. From everything I've heard Vanguard has been a pretty good steward so far and largely keeps their hands out of things, but how many companies could they effectively dictate terms to? Probably a lot. -Paul
[2019-07-29 12:03:25] - like that one person / group of people could potentially have their votes drastically change the results of how large companies are managed. ~a
[2019-07-29 12:02:43] - it's an interesting argument against just buying only vtsax: consolidation of voting on one person (or group of people) is a problem. maybe even vanguard should have more than "one" vstax fund. like vtsax-a and vtsax-b, with each fund receiving a different set of rules and people for how voting happens? ~a
[2019-07-29 11:30:00] - a: Yeah, and I know that's been an issue that is raised: Vanguard has the voting rights, which are significant. How do they use it? -Paul
[2019-07-29 11:29:03] - daniel/paul: "directly?". this made me think more about how voting works in passive investing. it seems like, when i own vtsax, i can vote at "vanguard" for how the fund is managed, but i don't receive requests for voting at "aapl" for how apple is managed. i'm guessing (among other things) the fund manager does the voting for "apple". the fund manager is the real owner. like, how passive is it really? ~a
[2019-07-26 16:33:33] - a: There should be more perks for shareholders that (directly?) own a certain amount of shares. I want to see an early showing of Endgame for being a Disney shareholder! -Paul
[2019-07-26 16:26:51] - for dividend paying companies, it would be interesting if your "membership fee" was just, "hold this many shares and we won't charge you". you want hbo or netflix or hulu? just show you own 250 shares and we'll just take your dividends instead. ~a
[2019-07-26 16:26:40] - maybe. it's at 4% now, so maybe that's why my calculations were off. ~a
[2019-07-26 16:24:28] - a: Hmmm. Yeah, I guess? My tentative calculations put it at $10k in Verizon stock, which is more than I think I owned at any given time. Maybe it didn't cover my bill completely or maybe the dividend yield was higher than I remember. Wasn't it at 6% at one point? -Paul
[2019-07-26 16:22:21] - jesus, that was a lot of vz. that or your wireless bill was very cheap
~a[2019-07-26 16:09:22] - a: That reminds me of when I used to own enough Verizon stock that the dividend paid me more than I was paying them in my monthly fees. I liked that. -Paul
[2019-07-26 16:06:28] - paul: between 2010 and 2019, i've spent ~2k at starbucks stores. not just coffee, but also food and other stuff (~$4/week). i've made about ~6k buying their stock during that time. ~a
[2019-07-26 14:17:37] - a: I used to own all three. No longer do.
Was a good day for my 2018 stock market challenge portfolio. -Paul[2019-07-26 14:16:29] - i missed out on twtr. but i hold goog and sbux (+9%). ~a
[2019-07-26 14:07:55] - a: "I wouldn’t be shocked if this was a market beater going forward" I was right.
-Paul[2019-07-26 14:06:47] - a: Yeah. It's weird. Alphabet (sold) and Twitter (sold) both had great days, while Amazon (B5 position) did not.... and yet I'm still up 0.8% today (beating the market). -Paul
[2019-07-26 14:05:45] - paul: oh no! +10% today. lame. ~a
[2019-07-26 12:58:58] - a: i learned about that cagsqip32 thing from the /r/crappydesign subreddit, but it's apparently from a hospital and not a joke - aaron
[2019-07-26 09:41:07] - i feel like penis land knows about their name, they have a penis in their fucking logo. ~a
[2019-07-26 09:40:19] - speedo fart ~a
[2019-07-26 09:20:10] - huh, interesting. (hopefully we won't fight about this too much
). so, a car was parked in the bike lane. in turn, a bike decided to park in the car lane. i know it's not a perfectly balanced situation, because bikes can sometimes get around a car, but rarely can a car get around a bike, but it was still interesting to watch. ~a[2019-07-26 09:07:39] - aaron: what is that from? ~a
[2019-07-25 16:32:42] - aaron: bigger pls. ~a
[2019-07-25 16:31:54] - https://i.imgur.com/oTBStkq_d.jpg what is cagsqip32? - aaron
[2019-07-25 15:06:26] - a: Excited for Amazon earnings after market close? It's been quite the past week or so. Netflix, then Tesla, now Amazon. Next week is Shopify! -Paul
[2019-07-25 13:59:50] - a:
-Paul[2019-07-25 13:08:43] - paul: i didn't realize that eich created javascript. this changes everything. i would have definitely fired eich. ~a
[2019-07-24 13:43:23] - paul: yes that's not a disaster. especially if you have a bond-tent (which specifically addresses that scenario: sequence risk) ~a
[2019-07-24 13:42:17] - a: Sure, but it's unlikely to be actually flat. It's more likely to dip a lot and then slowly climb back, right? I agree it's not a disaster, though. -Paul
[2019-07-24 13:41:12] - paul: flat markets aren't a bad thing, honestly. if inflation is normal, a flat market will be ok. if the stock market stays literally flat (adjusted for inflation), a 4% withdraw rate (using the trinity method) lasts exactly 25 years if you have zero bonds. with half of your money in bonds, and a 3% bond rate, a flat market (adjusted for inflation) will yield and a 4% withdraw rate (using the trinity method) lasts 32 years. ~a
[2019-07-24 13:30:21] - a: Is our market that much larger than Japan's was back in the 90s? I can't find data to support this, but I thought Japan's economy was close to rivaling the US back then. -Paul
[2019-07-24 13:22:36] - paul: our market is larger. japan is very small (percentage of the world). larger economies take more disasters to affect in a negative way (but also require more revenue to affect in a positive way). it's why i mentioned michigan. if you had 100% of your money invested in michigan stocks, i would suggest that to be a bad plan. similarly holding 0% of your money in international stocks would also be a bad plan. ~a
[2019-07-24 13:19:34] - a: Yeah, that's why I wish I could find the quote, because it had a better definition than "modern-ish". I do wonder, though, if "we" (as Americans) are taking for granted that the stock market will generally go up over time. If it could happen in Japan, why couldn't it happen here? What's fundamentally different, other than maybe we have the reserve currency? -Paul
[2019-07-24 13:15:00] - paul: our market is large (percentage wise). we have a larger percentage of the world market cap than most economies (including japan). and depending on your definition of modern-ish, it's been true for like all of modern history. that might be the "magic" you refer to. maybe we should look at sub-economies? like the economy of michigan? ~a
[2019-07-24 13:11:40] - a: I can't find the quote, I really wish I could, but there was a quote I liked which basically talked about how almost every modern-ish economy has had some massive economic collapse where markets had negative returns for decades.... except the US. So are we some magical exception or it just hasn't happened yet? -Paul
[2019-07-24 13:07:31] - well . . . huh. i was going to link to n255 and tell you that you were full of shit, but god damn, that looks horrible. yeah, i'm totally re-evaluating my position. and maybe now i'm in an existential crisis. ~a
[2019-07-24 13:04:39] - aDaniel: So you two don't think there's any chance of an event like Japan, where decades go by where the market is essentially flat or down? -Paul
[2019-07-24 13:02:23] - 30 years from now, jesus. i thought i saw "30 days from now" and thought you were all being fucking crazy. 30 years from now, i'm like 98% certain the s&p 500 will be higher than it is now adjusted for inflation. that last 2% is . . . some crazy black swan shit. i.e. the machines take over. or world war 3 doesn't end well for the amercans. . . . or the s&p decides they don't like doing indexing anymore. ~a
[2019-07-24 12:27:45] - But couldn't we see demographic issues where the US population (or at least working population) drops and the economy shrinks and retired americans are pulling money OUT of the market instead of putting it in and suddenly we have less buyers of stock while businesses are selling less goods too? -Paul
[2019-07-24 12:26:25] - Daniel: Yeah, I originally just phrased my question as "the S&P 500 will be higher than it is now", but I changed it for.... reasons, I guess. I dunno. I think I'm only like 80% certain, and it's mostly that high because I feel like we can still count on international growth 30 years from now. -Paul
[2019-07-24 12:23:39] - Paul: Near 100%? Inflation is built into it? -Daniel
[2019-07-24 12:06:01] - Here's a random question for the message board: How confident are you that 30 years from now the S&P 500 will have returns which beat inflation? -Paul
[2019-07-23 17:50:58] - uhhh. i don't know. i'm not sure if it should be illegal. ~a
[2019-07-23 16:47:13] - a: It was less of a legal question and more of a "is Adrian okay with it" question. -Paul
[2019-07-23 16:33:55] - sure i guess? i'm not sure how "protected classes" work exactly to be honest. it could be religion is a protected class? ~a
[2019-07-23 15:42:30] - a: So a Christian baker could deny a Muslim wedding cake since people aren't born Muslim? -Paul
[2019-07-23 15:28:58] - "there's always going to be edge cases which are ugly" i can agree on this. "the jewish baker with the nazi cake". if only nationalsozialismus was a thing people were born with, i could maybe understand this analogy. ~a
[2019-07-23 14:48:50] - a: But I also think your side is dangerous as well for reasons like this. Frankly, I just think people should be allowed to choose their customers in general. -Paul
[2019-07-23 14:47:51] - a: We've been round and round, we're not going to convince each other. I think no matter what, there's always going to be edge cases which are ugly. I fully admit that there's always going to be some tiny segment which is going to discriminate. -Paul
[2019-07-23 14:44:26] - a: I pretty much agree with everything up until your last sentence. Yeah, it shouldn't happen. It's ugly. But if we start codifying laws that force people to provide their service for anybody... then we run into ugly stuff like this too (or the Jewish baker with the nazi cake or whatever analogy you want to use). -Paul
[2019-07-23 14:04:25] - mainly, i think black people should be able to go into a bakery and ask for a cake, and the cake maker shouldn't be like "well i don't do weddings for black couples, sorry. didn't you see our sign?". whatever laws we need to make that not a thing, pls. ~a
[2019-07-23 14:02:33] - ah i guess i wasn't making that distinction (intentionally. this time.) i did have a typo back there, so maybe i confused things. ~a
[2019-07-23 14:00:21] - a: The distinction between who somebody is vs what they do. -Paul
[2019-07-23 13:22:15] - which distinction? i don't follow. ~a
[2019-07-23 13:04:03] - a: It's not like the only thing that gay people do is get married. -Paul
[2019-07-23 13:03:48] - a: I don't see why you don't think that's an important distinction. You yourself made the point that who somebody is is different from what they do. I might serve Donald Trump at my restaurant, but I might not feel good about hosting a "grab them by the p*ssy" celebration. -Paul
[2019-07-23 12:56:17] - i don't mind selling to black couples, i just don't want to make wedding cakes for black people's weddings. i'm seriously at a loss. i hate to make an argument easier for you, but i think if you went the angle: commissioning art from an artist, that's where thing get grey fast. even then though, how you choose to reject a job matters. if you choose to reject the job because the couple is black, you're going to have a hard time. ~a
[2019-07-23 12:46:14] - i don't mind selling to black couples, i just don't want to make wedding cakes for black people. ~a
[2019-07-23 12:00:31] - a: It's like the difference between the Westboro Baptist Church and just secretly thinking homosexuality is wrong. -Paul
[2019-07-23 12:00:01] - a: Well, in this specific instance it's not rejecting on who they are, it's about what they want. I believe the bakery in question had no problem selling to gays, they just didn't want to make a gay wedding cake. Secondly, one is much more active vs passive. -Paul
[2019-07-23 11:58:31] - paul: is it? if i'm allowed to reject a customer because of who they are . . . why can't i have a sign that tells people about these rules? ~a
[2019-07-23 11:31:02] - a: Right, but I think there's a big difference between putting a "no homo" sign in your store and telling somebody you prefer not make a cake for an event celebrating something you don't believe in. -Paul
[2019-07-23 11:12:09] - paul: yes that *creates* sticky situations and grey areas that didn't exist before. especially when the job is "creating art". but man, if you're going to take the job, fucking take the job. ~a
[2019-07-23 11:11:17] - paul: my analogy is this. if you're allowed to throw this shit in the window of your store (but change it to say "no homo" or something), and that's totally allowed? i mean i know you're basically saying "yes, that's allowed", and i'm like, nah i don't like that. you can't just say who's allowed in your store, and who's business you'll take. ~a
[2019-07-23 11:09:01] - a: If I went to a restaurant and had a horrible experience, I just wouldn't go back. I wouldn't try to get the manager fired or something. Life's too short. -Paul
[2019-07-23 11:08:28] - a: Yeah, the bake shop didn't want to make a gay wedding cake. Who cares!? Do you honestly really want to force somebody who disapproves of your wedding to make your cake? Go to literally almost any other bakery and get a cake from somebody who wants your business. -Paul
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