prev <-> next
[2019-10-16 10:32:07] - a: Like, if I go to a hospital complaining of a headache. The doctor is incentivized to order an MRI if my insurance will pay for it and I have no reason to say no even if there's such a tiny chance it will find anything. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:31:13] - a: Which in a vacuum is great! Means we're being extra safe looking for things, but would all those people get MRIs if they had to pay what it cost? Almost certainly not. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:30:43] - paul: 2x is a *crazy* ratio. . . . for something (even arguably) worse. or (less arguable) comparable. ~a
[2019-10-16 10:30:32] - a: For example, I saw one measure where the US has a "good" healthcare system is that we do a ton of MRIs and CT scans... -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:30:13] - a: I'm no expert, but I would guess it's our awful half-free-market system where people are incentivized to get every procedure under the sun done and shielded from the costs. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:29:08] - paul: what's your take as to why our healthcare is so expensive? we're 2x the uk, australia, or sweeden (with by most measures have a much better health-care system than us). ~a
[2019-10-16 10:28:16] - Daniel: But, yeah, I do have to imagine in some system where we've socialized healthcare and removed any kind of free market, one future downside is less innovation. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:27:36] - Daniel: Or to point out other countries who do it, without realizing some of the trade offs or differences in the countries or tax rates of those countries. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:26:48] - daniel: Uh, not necessarily. I think the most immediate and pressing issue is the cost, which I've never heard anybody serious address other than to wave their hand and blame multi-national corporations. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:25:02] - paul: And you think we would lose some of the qualities (cancer survivors / eye care / etc) if we had a public option? Low income teens having access to public healthcare seems like it could contribute to helping infant mortality. -Daniel
[2019-10-16 10:24:01] - I think people tend to get hyperbolic and imply that we have an absolutely terrible health care system. I think it's much more accurate to say our health care system is pretty good, but we pay a LOT for, and probably too much. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:23:04] - a: But yes, we spend a lot, but just because we spend a lot it doesn't mean the actual care sucks. A Tesla Model S is like an $80k car, but it's still an awesome car. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:22:17] - a: I never said to give up. I just wasted a bunch of time trying to explain how to measure it.
-Paul[2019-10-16 10:21:42] - a: Even your article, which I assume was supposed to disprove my point, ranked us 11, which I honestly think isn't too bad when you consider some of the challenges we face in terms of demographics. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:21:28] - paul: it's hard to measure, but it's better to try and measure than to give up. you probably shouldn't say "by some measures i believe we have one of the best health care systems in the world" because it's technically true, but the real truth is that our healthcare system actually sucks a lot per dollar that we spend. ~a
[2019-10-16 10:20:18] - And in some ways we're really good! I've read we're good with fixing eye problems and things with knee replacements and like I said before, cancer survival rates... -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:19:36] - Anyway, I'm not trying to say our system is perfect or even the best, only to say that a lot of times it's hard to measure. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:18:27] - a: Is it still infant mortality at 6 months? I guess so. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:17:03] - a: Yeah! And if you dig into that article, they touch on how it's not just because of our healthcare system. Sure, it plays a role, but it's complicated. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:16:38] - paul: much of our infant mortality problem isn't an issue of risky pregnancies. lots of the infants are dying at like 6mo. ~a
[2019-10-16 10:15:20] - paul: yeah, yikes. ~a
[2019-10-16 10:14:23] - daniel: Even things like overall health could be more due to our diet and activeness (which I think we all agree is problematic relative to other countries) and can't be blamed on our healthcare system. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:13:34] - Daniel: I think another was infant mortality? But apparently the US has a higher teen birth rate, and those pregnancies are often riskier. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:12:47] - daniel: The problem is that a lot of the normal measurements of healthcare systems aren't very pure measurements of the healthcare system. For example, low life expectancy? Well, we have a high gun violence rate which certainly can't be blamed on the healthcare system. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:11:32] - Daniel: "what supports that?" Well, it's a hard thing to measure! Lots of things go into the efficacy of a healthcare system. I recall reading that the US has one of the best cancer survivorship rates, which is a pretty pure measure of healthcare effectiveness. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:11:18] - we certainly spend the most, that's something we can all agree on. ~a
[2019-10-16 10:10:37] - daniel/paul: best healthcare systems in the world according to research done by the commonwealth fund. ~a
[2019-10-16 10:08:31] - Paul: I do agree that the "free market" parts of our healthcare are pretty f'ed up. Generally I think my position boils down to 'do we want hospitals to reject patients and let them die on the streets?' If no then we already have public healthcare just inefficient. -Daniel
[2019-10-16 10:07:53] - Daniel: (3) Additionally, we have a weird setup where many people (most?) get their insurance through their employer, which distorts all sorts of things. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:07:22] - paul: Huh. I don't think I've heard someone argue we have the best healthcare system in the world before. What supports that? -Daniel
[2019-10-16 10:07:16] - Daniel: (2) In the ways that our system is a disaster, I think a lot stems from the lack of any kind of free market in healthcare. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:06:25] - Daniel: I think there's a million nuanced answers, but I would say a few things: (1) By what measure is it a disaster? By some measures I believe we have one of the best health care systems in the world. -Paul
[2019-10-16 10:04:28] - a: Oh, heh, your question takes on new meaning knowing that.
-Paul[2019-10-16 09:55:52] - paul: Why is public healthcare a disaster? -Daniel
[2019-10-16 09:52:14] - "one branch of congress", haha i misread your post. ~a
[2019-10-16 09:47:47] - a: I don't think there's anything unconstitutional about forgiving student debt or crafting a universal healthcare system. Even if there was, I think Roberts has shown he won't step in to stop it. -Paul
[2019-10-16 09:46:54] - Daniel: I wasn't talking about centrist democrats, I was talking about independents who don't associate with either party. That's often where the battleground is in general elections. -Paul
[2019-10-16 09:46:34] - paul: the courts? ~a
[2019-10-16 09:46:05] - Daniel: Well, that's the silver lining to me, after watching these debates, is that hopefully we'll at least have Republicans control one branch of Congress to prevent a lot of these disastrous policies from being enacted. -Paul
[2019-10-16 09:44:17] - Paul: In the same way that Trump wasn't able to build the wall I doubt Warren will get rid of private insurance. I'd be comfortable voting for her. What is a centrist democrat? Pro choice, fine with gay marriage, but "small gov"? -Danie
[2019-10-16 09:34:31] - Daniel: Not to mention that she's one of probably two candidates where charges of socialism will stick the most because of her plans to make everything free. -Paul
[2019-10-16 09:33:54] - Daniel: If I recall, she's pretty much on record as supporting eliminating private insurance and decriminalization of illegal immigration. -Paul
[2019-10-16 09:33:01] - Daniel: She's taken a lot of stances that, while appealing to the Democrats, are probably going to be really harmful to her in a general election with centrists. -Paul
[2019-10-16 09:30:13] - Paul: Why do you think she is not electable? -Daniel
[2019-10-16 09:27:53] - Paul: Well either not as many as you think are worried about electability or people think that Warren is electable. -Daniel
[2019-10-16 09:27:04] - any idea what the punishment for ignoring this is going to be? contempt of congress is meaningless? ~a
[2019-10-15 17:19:02] - well in the end it was clinton or sanders . . . so hell it could have been more-left in 2016. ~a
[2019-10-15 17:11:24] - a: I still think it's unbelievable that, in an election where Democrats seem so laser focused on defeating Donald Trump and prioritizing "electability", that they would go with somebody as far left and unappealing to the center as Warren, but I guess I also was shocked they nominated Clinton. -Paul
[2019-10-15 16:52:54] - yeah, i have sanders *and* warren.
. . . it's not a lock, of course, but i'm definitely feeling good about my odds. ~a[2019-10-15 16:47:34] - a: https://www.newsweek.com/elizabeth-warren-frontrunner-extends-lead-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-latest-poll-1465326 Things are looking up for your Presidential Draft.... -Paul
[2019-10-15 15:44:48] - paul: add him to the list of hypocritical nba shitbags. - mig
[2019-10-15 13:56:28] - https://www.fathomevents.com/events/never-surrender For Galaxy Quest fans. -Paul
[2019-10-15 13:09:32] - a: That would also make sense, right? -Paul
[2019-10-15 13:09:24] - a: Are you looking at aggregates? Maybe the "growth" stocks have a handful of companies that have much higher growth, but also a bunch of underperformers, whereas the dividend aristocrats manage to avoid a bunch of losers and are more consistent across companies. -Paul
[2019-10-15 13:07:54] - of course dividend aristocrats != value companies, so maybe that's a key difference. ~a
[2019-10-15 13:07:25] - paul: ... agreed. i would expect, though, that higher profits (w/ higher volatility) would be expected betting on growth companies / companies that have little to no dividends. worded differently, i expect value does you better in the short run (with a lower chance of losing money in a specific year), and growth does better in the long run (with a higher chance of losing money in a specific year). maybe this is wrong i guess. ~a
[2019-10-15 12:59:29] - a: I'm familiar with the concept, yeah. Not sure I understand the question, though. I get why it's a little unusual, but it's not impossible that volatility can be low and returns high, especially when looking at hugely profitable companies that pay steadily increasing dividends. -Paul
[2019-10-15 11:12:30] - have you guys heard about dividend aristocrats? (etf would be nobl, sdy, or dvy?). it's an interesting concept, i get that volatility is lower, and that makes sense, but what i don't get is that the return is higher (over various time ranges i've looked at). is that unexpected? why would the volatility be lower *and* the return be higher? ~a
[2019-10-15 10:11:31] - a: Yeah, it seems bad on many levels. It's incoherent. It's blatantly hypocritical based on preview things he has done and said. Not only does he decline to criticize China, but he goes after somebody else for briefly and timidly expressing a political opinion. He could've just said "no comment", but instead of attacks somebody else. -Paul
[2019-10-15 10:10:09] - "when you say things or do things, if you are doing it and you know the people that can be affected by it and the families and individuals and everyone that can be affected by it, sometimes things can be changed as well" wtf does this even mean? it sounds like the word soup i'm used to seeing from the president. or the office: "don't ever, for any reason, do anything, to anyone, for any reason, ever, no matter what, no matter where..." ~a
[2019-10-15 09:52:20] - This is one of those rare instances where I think the social media mockery and pile on is at least directionally right, if maybe the extent is a little high. -Paul
[2019-10-15 09:23:04] - https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27847951/daryl-morey-was-misinformed-situation-china In case anybody here hasn't heard: Lebron has weighed in. Social Media is.... not impressed. -Paul
[2019-10-15 08:48:25] - ready for snow already?
[2019-10-15 08:15:58] - comic i saw yesterday. in other animated news, rabbit ears of the latest season of american dad was pretty good. ~a
[2019-10-14 13:35:50] - a: Right, the problem is pulling the comparison data with the S&P. I almost need to calculate the return (and corresponding S&P return) for each buy and then aggregate it up somehow. -Paul
[2019-10-14 11:12:42] - paul: well, ok, if all you care about is the overall return, then yeah, FINAL/ORIGINAL - 1 will definitely still work with multiple buys and multiple sells. just make sure FINAL includes the money from all of the sells (if that's what you want) and all of the dividends (as well as the current amount obviously) and ORIGINAL needs to include the money from all of the buys. ~a
[2019-10-14 11:08:40] - a: Heh, yeah, I have multiple buys (and sometimes, but less often, multiple sells). I'm fine simplifying it by basically just counting buys and ignoring sells, but I'm not sure how to semi-intelligently do that either. -Paul
[2019-10-14 10:19:25] - paul: for s&p500, i use googlefinance("sp500tr") because it include dividends. ~a
[2019-10-14 10:17:49] - paul: if you want the overall return, you don't need the (complex) xirr calculation. you need a much simpler calculation: FINAL/ORIGINAL. (making sure FINAL includes dividends if you want to include dividends). (is your issue is that you have multiple buys and sells? if that's the case, your problem might not be solvable.) ~a
[2019-10-14 10:17:48] - a: Okay, I think I've got the basic scorecard functionality replicated in google sheets to where I can easy see my returns (dollar amount and percent) for today. Just need to work on getting the cumulative returns (and vs S&P) done. -Paul
[2019-10-13 09:14:00] - a: Can the XIRR function be used to calculate overall return and not just annualized returns? For example, if I want to see what my total return on SHOP is from 2017 onward, I would get 600% instead of, I dunno, 200%? -Paul
[2019-10-12 13:50:26] - -- Xpovos
[2019-10-12 13:50:22] - It's a step in the right direction and shows that they've put some actual thought into it. But it's really still insufficient. What, precisely, would Blizzard like a caster to do if a similar situation comes up again? What is the response that doesn't get you a 6-month suspension. I'm OK with the suspension for blitzchung, and the return of the money also ameliorates that for me. But the casters are effectively innocent bystanders here.
[2019-10-11 22:00:11] - Well it's something. I doubt this part is true . . . "our relationships in China had no influence on our decision...If this had been the opposing viewpoint delivered in the same divisive and deliberate way, we would have felt and acted the same". Still, it's something. The casters were originally banned indefinitely, so that's a big change for them as well! ~a
[2019-10-11 21:15:02] - https://kotaku.com/blizzard-reduces-suspension-of-hearthstone-player-who-m-1838984893 Blizzard backing off slightly. -Paul
[2019-10-11 16:47:16] - paul: . . . maybe? we use it for the stock market challenge. and i (sort-of) use it for my personal tracking (with a combination of other tools too). ~a
[2019-10-11 16:18:10] - Ugh, The Motley Fool is apparently getting rid of their scorecard tool, so now I need a new (better?) system to deal with tracking my returns. Any suggestions? Would a combination of Google sheets and the finance API be robust enough? -Paul
[2019-10-11 12:40:10] - Paul: It was the first day after - maybe he didn't get the memo? or maybe didn't care? /shrug. -Daniel
[2019-10-11 12:25:48] - Daniel: I'm surprised Max was allowed to say that considering the supposed message from on high that ESPN was supposed to avoid discussing the politics around the China controversy. -Paul
[2019-10-11 12:24:51] - mig: I even kinda like Kerr despite his outspokenness about politics that rarely meshes with mine (see Ellen's point about liking people who you disagree with), but it's really hard not to see him as a huge hypocrite here who instead of being humbled a bit instead is doubling down. -Paul
[2019-10-11 12:23:39] - mig: Yeah, I like to try to give people the benefit of the doubt, and I do appreciate the thinking of, "I don't know enough so I'll keep my mouth shut", but Kerr has already shown he doesn't use that same logic when it comes to US issues and there were plenty of ways to answer that question without coming across as a jerk, but he choose to pivot that way. -Paul
[2019-10-11 12:10:31] - https://youtu.be/7IWSTeyMEjo?t=188 Think I did that right if you want to see what Kellerman said. -Daniel
[2019-10-11 12:08:13] - I don't know if I would use those words but I've been (and was) a bit dissapointed that more people didn't basically echo Max Kellerman's response. His feels like the obvious should be answer so a bit sad that no one else said it too. -Daniel
[2019-10-11 12:00:19] - paul: https://twitter.com/samhustis/status/1182469667270488064 I’ll repeat. Steve Kerr is a sanctimonious hypocritical shitbag. - mig
[2019-10-11 11:10:03] - Daniel: I'm sure there have been some, but we don't hear about them.
-Paul[2019-10-11 11:09:10] - Paul: Yeah I think the NBA stuff has more exposure. But if Blizzard looses its employees that seems like a bigger deal to me. I'm surprised that some random company hasn't tried to jump on the pro HK / freedom side of thigns so far and just be like F China we love freedom! Go HK! Also buy our <muffins> (or whatever). -Daniel
[2019-10-11 11:05:58] - Daniel: Fair, but the NBA has also been kicking out American fans at games in America for having political signs. That seems to have gotten more public exposure (see the GoFundMe) than employee walkouts. -Paul
[2019-10-11 11:04:51] - -Daniel
[2019-10-11 11:04:48] - Blizzard had an employee walkout. That seems like a bigger deal so far. If the employees all bail then that seems fairly existential for them vs "just" loosing a lot of money for the NBA. -Daneil
[2019-10-11 10:42:45] - a: Well, I don't think there's any doubt Disney caters to the Chinese market in certain ways with their movies. They did have their own mini-controversy when the actress who plays Mulan in the upcoming live-action remake had some critical comments of the Hong Kong protesters (so I guess kinda the opposite issue). -Paul
[2019-10-11 10:41:13] - or disney? the most recent south-park implied that disney's film-making includes chinese censors in the process. it's probably not literally true, but an interesting take regardless. ~a
[2019-10-11 09:28:29] - Who is handling this China thing worse? Blizzard or the NBA? Or another company? I've seen people taking Nike to task for capitulation despite their "Believe in something, even if it means losing everything" Kaep ad. -Paul
[2019-10-10 14:39:40] - daniel said something about "political clothes" being allowed. not sure if that's true or not though. ~a
[2019-10-10 14:38:40] - mig: https://www.gofundme.com/f/quotfree-hong-kongquot-shirts-for-nba You think these people will be prevented from coming to the game? -Paul
[2019-10-10 13:35:25] - a: Yeah, I've heard good things about it. Maybe I will. I'm not sure why, but I've found myself randomly with more free time lately to watch shows (I've been watching Frasier, for example). Maybe I've just been lazy with writing for PvtM and RD? I'm also considering watching "Knock down the house". -Paul
[2019-10-10 13:07:08] - paul: good point. so, your best bet is shorting! that'll be hard. you'll probably need to start a hedge fund. but you'll also need your hedge fund to convince VC shareholders of private companies that they should rent you their shares for shorting. if you haven't watched "the big short" you should. it goes into the mechanics of this a bit (i.e. how to short non-public things). it's also just a good movie. features steve carell. ~a
[2019-10-10 12:23:59] - a: That's assuming there's money to move. Because of the illiquidity in these private companies and the leverage involved with stuff like the Vision Fund, isn't a lot of this money in paper only and could evaporate once these valuations evaporate (like with WeWork)? -Paul
[2019-10-10 12:15:07] - paul: uhhh, investing in public companies (and bonds) would be one way to profit from it
if people move money from private companies, you'll see an influx of money spent elsewhere. shorting private companies is probably impossible. ~a[2019-10-10 11:05:14] - https://twitter.com/wintonARK/status/1181636188119023616 I didn't follow a lot of this, but I have been reading a lot of stuff (for years) about there being a bubble in venture capital and valuations of private companies. Maybe that bubble is starting to burst? Wonder if there's a way to profit from it.... -Paul
[2019-10-10 11:04:30] - a: Yeah, I have a hard time measuring time since.... 2003? This kind of change feels relatively recent, but it also feels like something that could've easily happened 20 years ago. -Paul
[2019-10-10 10:38:20] - 2009 seems like only yesterday. gurkie and paul are date . . .
pierce and nina are date. dave and maki are date. ~a[2019-10-10 10:34:01] - imo probably more. redskins never got their name changed, but if you used that same title with the redskins, i think you'd see outrage today, and in 2014, and in 2009. ~a
[2019-10-10 10:25:27] - https://sports.yahoo.com/people-want-answers-after-bay-area-tv-station-uses-racist-headline-to-cover-braves-nlds-loss-033047397.html When, exactly, do you think the tide turned on things like this where it went from okay to not acceptable? Within the past 5 years? 10 years? More? -Paul
[2019-10-10 10:07:01] - gotcha yeah. also my guess is that . . . this only affects people who haven't logged in recently: "authentication" problems are usually when you haven't been on a system in a while. so, probably not you considering what you said. ~a
[2019-10-10 09:32:03] - a: I didn't, but I didn't delete my account just cancelled subscription. Also I did it over the weekend so maybe earlier in the process. -Daniel
[2019-10-10 09:14:56] - daniel: did you have trouble cancelling as the accusers claim? ~a
[2019-10-10 01:51:07] - Apparently Blizzard is getting in the way of people deleting accounts now. I had resubbed for Classic to try it out but hadn't been spending a lot of time on it so I canceled after the HK business. Its crazy how bad a move it was by them. -Daniel
[2019-10-09 11:16:17] - i found this title on the message board "as you know, bears have only one arm, and it is extremely long". and i googled it, and only found the message board in the results. wtf does it mean? ~a
[2019-10-09 11:11:02] - Daniel: Sure, and Blizzard has a rule about no speech that offends people. Like you said, though, not a great look given the timing. -Paul
[2019-10-09 11:05:46] - Paul: There was a whole reddit thread about the guy getting kicked out. Apparently the NBA has a no political signs rule or some such? So like you can wear political clothes but they don't want political signs being waved around. I kind of get it but its not a great look given then timing of all this. -Daniel
[2019-10-09 11:00:55] - a: But there was a game going on, so it's entirely possible they were cheering something happening there. -Paul
[2019-10-09 11:00:33] - a: Hard to tell? I watched some of the video now, and I didn't see anybody who was clearly clapping at them. Mostly, I just saw the person in front's butt. -Paul
[2019-10-09 10:56:59] - i know this is going to sound like a dumb question seeing as it's a basketball game, but why are people clapping in that (inquirer) video? were they clapping because the sixers fan was being ejected? or were they clapping for an unrelated reason? ~a
[2019-10-09 10:53:46] - https://www.inquirer.com/sixers/sixers-fan-ejected-hong-kong-protest-china-sam-wachs-20191009.html -Paul
[2019-10-09 10:53:12] - Daniel: Apparently some people at a 76ers game in Philadelphia got kicked out for holding "Free Hong Kong" signs during a game against a Chinese team. -Paul
[2019-10-09 10:52:21] - Daniel: I almost wonder if this NBA kerfuffle could help the Hong Kong movement (and hurt the Chinese government) more than we're thinking. Apparently the NBA is huge there, and the government shutting down all these partnerships over something so relatively innocuous might cause people to question what's going on. -Paul
[2019-10-09 10:52:16] - But how crazy would it be and what would happen if Lebron said something and got arrested. That would be insanity. -Daniel
[2019-10-09 10:51:33] - Whats super crazy is that Lebron is in China right now (along with the rest of the Lakers and the Nets) cause they were going to play some preseason games but now they aren't sure if that is happening anymore. -Daniel
[2019-10-09 10:50:37] - I think the NBA and Blizzard have done more to hurt China's image in the US in the last 48 hours than the news and tradewar of the last 6 months. -Daniel
[2019-10-09 10:49:50] - The Morey tweet and NBA fallout has been very interesting to watch. The tweet from Morey was up on the rockets subreddit almost immediately and there was like a 12 hour window where we thought he might get fired. Silver's initial response was pretty lackluster but the later one seemed fairly strong to me. Will be crazy to see how it goes. -Daniel
[2019-10-08 16:36:48] - https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/10/blizzard-bans-pro-hearthstone-gamer-for-statement-supporting-hong-kong/ Blizzard apparently fired the two announcers involved too. -Paul
[2019-10-08 16:27:32] - paul: sometimes yes. sometimes no. depends on what sanctions are in place and what the oppression is exactly. ~a
[2019-10-08 15:28:18] - a: If the US government can make deals with the Chinese, isn't that siding with oppressors then? -Paul
[2019-10-08 15:27:53] - mig: Yeah, in theory I like Kerr's "I don't know enough so I'm withholding comment until I learn more" stance, but it's also hard to buy considering how outspoken he is on other issues. -Paul
[2019-10-08 14:44:10] - mig: I guess I would defend the NBA at least a little bit here, in that as near as I can tell, neither Morey nor Silver nor the Rockets ownership has "fully" apologized (they apologized for offending, but not for saying it) and I know Silver at least stressed freedom of speech for NBA employees. -Paul
[2019-10-08 14:43:01] - Especially from the "woke as fuck" crowd in the NBA who like to loudly lecture about how evil the Bad Orange Man is, but come to China's defense or feign ignorance. - mig
[2019-10-08 14:42:25] - Paul: Personally, I'm not surprised that the NBA and the like kowtows to China because of business interest, but I am taken aback to the level of complete subservience to China on display. - mig
[2019-10-08 13:55:03] - "Does that mean that US companies and the US government can't deal with the Chinese government at all?" of course they can? the US government can also apply sanctions for humans rights abuse. (and the chinese government can do the same when the US government fucks up bad). ~a
[2019-10-08 12:52:45] - a: There's also the simple matter that it's not nearly as black and white as "siding with oppressors" or not. Does that mean that US companies and the US government can't deal with the Chinese government at all? -Paul
[2019-10-08 12:06:13] - xpovos: why not? according to paul, (sarcasm) only obama voters and nobody in china think the chinese government is oppressing anybody. ~a
[2019-10-08 12:05:04] - The more important lesson, I think, is for anyone who hasn't already gotten into the Chinese bed. Don't. -- Xpovos
[2019-10-08 12:04:22] - The whole art change a few months ago was in response to China too. They're clearly well-committed to doing almost anything China wants at this point. -- Xpovos
[2019-10-08 12:03:50] - mig: I'm definitely not going to purchase anything Hearthstone. Which, granted, isn't a ton of money for multiple reasons, but it isn't going to help them. They have to weigh my potential $20, maybe, someday, against the wrath of China and possibly losing access to the Chinese market, which is a huge money maker for them. -- Xpovos
[2019-10-08 12:03:49] - mig: maybe. not sure how "meaningful" (or "measurable" for that matter) is defined. but more critically . . . i don't pay them a monthly fee to play sc2. people who *do* pay them a monthly fee *are* cancelling their plans. how many people? i don't think i can know that. will it be 5%? will 5% affect their bottom line? only maybe. ~a
[2019-10-08 11:54:08] - a: does it come with meaningful blowback from users? Are you going to stop playing Starcraft? - mig
[2019-10-08 11:54:02] - a: I mean, hell, while I wouldn't necessarily phrase it that way, I could an argument for saying that people who voted for Obama were on the side of oppressors. -Paul
[2019-10-08 11:52:43] - a: No. You think everybody always agrees on who is being an oppressor and who isn't? I would guess a lot of Americans don't see the Kaepernick's protest as fighting against oppression. Similarly, I wonder how the majority of people in China feel about the Hong Kong protests. Wouldn't surprise me if a majority were against it. -Paul
[2019-10-08 11:50:22] - are you being sarcastic? ~a
[2019-10-08 11:40:18] - a: Well, the obvious answer is that oppression is in the eye of the beholder. -Paul
[2019-10-08 11:29:19] - this feels reminiscent of kaepernick. why would you want to be on the side of oppressors. ~a
[2019-10-08 11:28:41] - a: Yeah, I don't know. I assume I'm missing something, but maybe not? -Paul
[2019-10-08 11:21:41] - "to appease China" why appease china if doing so comes with (measurable?) blow-back from users? it was pretty fucked up, right? like, wtf, they kept the prize money? why didn't they at least give the prize money to the #2 winner? ~a
[2019-10-08 10:59:15] - That does seem like an incredibly harsh punishment from Blizzard, unless I missed something. I get wanting to censor some things to appease China, but is that all that was done wrong? -Paul
[2019-10-08 10:58:17] - a: Yeah, I was going to bring that up (on the heels of the Daryl Morey tweet as well). Curious to hear what people think here. -Paul
[2019-10-08 10:42:12] - this move has pissed off a lot of people. rightly so, imo. the rule will be exercised evenhandedly, i'm sure. ~a
[2019-10-08 10:35:15] - paul: "that ship has sailed". i'm not sure i agree. his approval rating is actually pretty high, especially among republicans. even though his approval rating has dipped among his party, it's still true that about 9/10 republicans still approve of him. i personally think they're a shit-ton of in-the-closet trump supporters: i think no ships have sailed yet. we just think they have because of our bubbles? ~a
[2019-10-08 10:18:46] - a: I thought Ford was generally given credit for helping to "heal" the nation after Nixon, whatever that means. Would it be a good look? No, I don't think so, but I think that ship has sailed. -Paul
[2019-10-08 09:47:37] - how did ford do for the republican brand? i'm seriously asking, i don't know shit about ford. he was president for 2 years, so it was a hell of a lot longer than (potentially) pence's 1 year. will it look bad if two republicans in modern times were forced-to-resign / removed-from-office? i doubt anyone would consider this winning (on either side). ~a
[2019-10-08 09:28:26] - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/07/polls-begin-to-signal-rising-impeachment-threat-to-trump.html I feel like Republicans in Congress have an easy out here. Remove Trump from office and that elevates Pence who, last I checked, was still a Republican. Pence can then end the trade war, which likely props up the stock market until the election. Winning! -Paul
[2019-10-08 09:25:48] - Xpovos: Are we on for watching and recording same night next Tuesday? I'll have some juggling to do, since Gurkie will be out and I'll have the kids, but I can make it work. -Paul
[2019-10-07 17:44:31] - nah, i guess next probably is 4. ~a
[2019-10-07 17:19:16] - xpovos: next==3? ~a
[2019-10-07 16:13:35] - Be sure to listen to the next Rampant Discourse debate breakdown.
-- Xpovos[2019-10-07 15:04:51] - mig: . . . yeah it's entirely too early for this shit. so glad netflix doesn't have ads. ~a
[2019-10-07 14:04:07] - paul: you can ignore my first sentence. i think it doesn't make sense in context of your message. ~a
[2019-10-07 13:52:48] - paul: there might be some other reasons though. it might be cheaper (fractions of a cent cheaper). it might "look better". and . . . other reasons i think are dumb. ~a
[2019-10-07 13:49:28] - Watching NFL yesterday I encountered my first campaign ad for the pesidential general election next year. Seeing today’s date I am now depressed. - mig
[2019-10-07 11:35:18] - a: Okay, then why would grocery stores want glass as opposed to plastic or aluminum? It's heavier and more fragile. -Paul
[2019-10-07 11:18:25] - paul: "It's not the grocery store's call, is it? It's the food/drink manufacturers" well, it's both. but really, no . . . it's just the grocery stores. grocery stores have a fuck-ton of sway on what they allow on their shelves. the power dynamic sits like 99% on the grocery store side of the continuum. food/drink manufacturers cater to all but the smallest mom&pop grocery store companies. ~a
[2019-10-07 11:08:01] - xpovos: yeah i'm with paul, i don't think glass is easy or cheap to recycle, but also the singlestream thing you mentioned is probably the real problem. ~a
[2019-10-07 10:31:14] - And of course, it's rarely as simple as even that. But ultimately, it's a huge problem, IMO. You won't get me on a picket line for greenhouse gasses, but conservation and landfills? I'm there. -- Xpovos
[2019-10-07 10:28:36] - a: So, I did some additional reading, and apparently, at least one of the reasons is that the glass in a singlestream recycling option causes problems because the glass will break and the glass shards/particles will contaminate the other recyclable materials. So the problem may not be glass recycling as an economic issue, but singlestream. -- Xpovos
[2019-10-07 10:27:38] - Xpovos: That's interesting, because I vaguely recall hearing recycling glass was bad because it's so heavy to be shipping around everywhere. -Paul
[2019-10-07 10:25:52] - a: PWC stopped recycling glass a few months ago, too. I was dumbfounded because glass is among the easiest/cheapest of products to recycle. Aluminum is about the only thing better--at least based on what I remember from what is probably outdated economics. China is ruining everything. -- Xpovos
[2019-10-07 10:00:33] - a: It's not the grocery store's call, is it? It's the food/drink manufacturers.... -Paul
[2019-10-07 09:59:54] - if we're not supposed to recycle glass anymore (fairfax county and arlington), why haven't grocery stores moved to a material we're allowed to recycle? ~a
[2019-10-07 09:47:34] - aaron: wow, i am proud of you! your work machine is linux too? ~a
[2019-10-04 19:42:02] - i struggle just remembering the ~25 PLL algorithms i need to memorize for my janky slow-ass petrus/fridrich hybrid strategy - aaron
[2019-10-04 19:41:27] - a: and yeah petrus does decently well at FMC but i think for the last two layers you really need to learn some variant of CFOP or that crazy thing with ~150 permutations on the official petrus site. i never went that crazy - aaron
[2019-10-04 19:38:57] - a: weirdly i only really use open jdk 8 and jdk11 on linux now. i guess you should be proud of me ha ha - aaron
[2019-10-04 17:25:56] - LET'S TRY JAVA 12! ~a
[2019-10-04 17:22:41] - yeah, jre 8 added "C:\Program Files (x86)\Common Files\Oracle\Java\javapath" to my PATH. jdk 11 did no such thing. lame. ~a
[2019-10-04 17:06:36] - daniel: thanks for your help, daniel. that's what i tried. it's weird they aren't separating it anymore. i noticed that the jre 8 added "java" to my path, and the jdk 11 did NOT add "java" to my path. i was hoping i'd find an installer that would add java to my path. how am i expected to explain to end users that they have to edit their path?!
i feel like i'm doing something wrong. ~a[2019-10-04 17:03:47] - a: So looks like https://www.oracle.com/technetwork/java/javase/downloads/jdk11-downloads-5066655.html is it. -Daniel
[2019-10-04 17:01:51] - a: Looks like no more separate JRE https://www.reddit.com/r/java/comments/9ualdq/why_did_java_11_jre_not_install_with_jdk_and/ -Daniel
[2019-10-04 16:14:35] - i guess daniel and mig probably use windows a lot and java a lot, so you guys too! help! ~a
[2019-10-04 16:14:01] - aaron: this seems like an aaron question. where do i get jre for windows? if i google jre download, i get here, but that appears to be 8 only. 8 doesn't have what i need. i need something newer than 8. i heard 11 is an LTS, so i'm fine with 11. where do i get that jre for windows? ~a
[2019-10-03 12:33:55] - a: Me neither. -Paul
[2019-10-03 12:33:42] - paul: no sc2 for me tonight. ~a
[2019-10-03 10:01:07] - a: I tend to agree, but this data point does give me pause. -Paul
[2019-10-03 09:33:53] - aint nothing gonna happen. ~a
[2019-10-03 09:31:10] - https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/10/03/poll-trump-impeachment-support-grows-removal-over-ukraine/3846565002/ These numbers seem surprising to me, but if they're accurate, then maybe this impeachment inquiry could actually turn out to be a thing. -Paul
[2019-10-03 09:27:42] - i mean i totally have. sort of. this article specifically says "No, Donald Trump could not seek a third term if an impeachment trial failed" which is wrong for a SECOND reason (other than the reason i previously noted): nowhere does it say you can't run. it just says you can't win. ~a
[2019-10-03 09:24:37] - a: You've found a loophole for term limits!
-Paul[2019-10-03 09:23:39] - i could be bearish on something, sure. hmm . . . i wonder if that means i should become a short seller. ~a
[2019-10-03 09:22:39] - "no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice, and no person who has held the office of president, or acted as president, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected president shall be elected to the office of the president more than once" so you could get a third/fourth/etc term! keep running as VP (or house speaker?) and keep having the president (voluntarily?) leave. right? ~a
[2019-10-03 09:21:07] - a: So I guess you're unwilling to make a passionate bull (or bear) case for any company on PvtM?
Still bullish on Netflix despite their recent struggles and looming competition? -Paul[2019-10-03 09:19:54] - paul: probably uber & lyft. ironically i hold neither. stocks i actually hold and think positively about their future: sbux, nflx, and gbtc. i don't have super strong feelings about the future of any of the stocks really. because i've resigned myself to being unable to predict the future. also because i'm pretty sure we're (always) due for a recession in the next 10-20 years and that'll wreak havoc with any predictions. ~a
[2019-10-03 09:14:05] - a: Is there a company that you (or anybody else here, honestly) and I have a different position on in terms of investment potential? For example, maybe you're bullish on AMD and I'm bearish (for the record, I'm not). Thinking it could make for a compelling PvtM article. -Paul
[2019-10-02 14:59:30] - in this paper (and on wikipedia) they mention petrus in reference to fmc. ~a
[2019-10-02 14:57:49] - aaron: not sure if you saw on the rubik's cube thing on reddit today. but fmc (google search) / fewest move challenge/competition seems like an interesting concept. they talk about it briefly on speedcubing (search for fmc or fewest move) ~a
[2019-10-02 13:05:55] - but later in a meeting, aides recalled, he suggested that they shoot migrants in the legs to slow them down. that's not allowed either, they told him.
[2019-10-02 13:05:51] - privately, the president had often talked about fortifying a border wall with a water-filled trench, stocked with snakes or alligators, prompting aides to seek a cost estimate. he wanted the wall electrified, with spikes on top that could pierce human flesh. after publicly suggesting that soldiers shoot migrants if they threw rocks, the president backed off when his staff told him that was illegal.
[2019-10-02 11:01:17] - aaron: It also serves as a check for myself. If I like a company, but it ends up with a P.A.U.L. score of like 10 or lower, then I really have to question the reasons I like the company. -Paul
[2019-10-01 21:06:21] - aaron: But it's tough to compare. A 5 for Long Runway is usually worth more than a 5 for Understanding, and the Long Runway for one company might be worth more than the Long runway for another. And, of course, there are other factors to consider than those 4. -Paul
[2019-10-01 21:05:33] - aaron: I mean, it's all pretty subjective, and the final score honestly doesn't matter as much to me as the thought process. I like companies that are above average in those qualities and ideally way above average. -Paul
[2019-10-01 17:53:39] - Paul: I just skimmed the PAUL article and thought I got it - but then I saw the "14" number and it was surprisingly precise. I thought they were guidelines! - aaron
[2019-10-01 17:06:55] - Paul: Maybe the 3 other word ticker companies that didn't do well were poop related as well which might negate the positive associations. -Daniel
[2019-10-01 16:48:11] - Daniel: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/stock-picking-buying-a-winner-is-easy-just-find-a-cool-ticker-symbol.html See? Investing in individual companies is easy. Although this doesn't explain why "A Poopy Fart" did so badly... -Paul
[2019-10-01 15:29:39] - aaron: I'm not sure I understand? Are you asking why it's so (relatively) low considering how big of a position it is? "do you just subjectively rate the P, A, U and L on a scale of 1-5 and add up the numbers or something?" I think that's basically what I do, yeah. Is there some better way of doing it? -Paul
[2019-10-01 14:51:12] - paul: does shopify REALLY have a P.A.U.L score of 14 or was that a joke? do you just subjectively rate the P, A, U and L on a scale of 1-5 and add up the numbers or something? - aaron
[2019-10-01 13:50:40] - https://i.redd.it/d6wq0outoxp31.jpg
[2019-10-01 12:29:50] - Daniel: Agreed on LeBron being old, and AD is always an injury risk, and the supporting cast is sketchy, but I saw enough of the Kobe / Shaq show winning championships with questionable supporting casts to know it can work. We didn't even mention the Spurs... -Paul
[2019-10-01 12:24:34] - Paul: I am not a Lakers believer. I think Lebron is getting old and that AD is only so good and don't really think the young lakers are that great. I might be wrong but I see them as a 4th seed at best. -Daniel
[2019-10-01 12:22:48] - Daniel: It's hard for me to see how Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will coexist, similarly to Harden and Russ. -Paul
[2019-10-01 12:22:27] - Daniel: I might peg the Lakers or Bucks as my slight favorites. Bucks might have the best player in the league with a solid supporting cast whereas the Lakers could have 2 of the top... 4(?) players in the league and they also should compliment each other well since they play different positions. -Paul
[2019-10-01 12:19:51] - Daniel: Interesting. I can't really argue much with that. It's incredible how we went from basically "only 2 or 3 teams even have a chance at winning" to "it's hard to differentiate which team among like 10 is the favorite and they all have warts". You didn't even mention the Celtics, who seem like they have a shot. -Paul
[2019-10-01 12:16:41] - Paul: Sorry my message board has been spotty the last few weeks. I think for the NBA I'd put the top tier currently as Clippers / Rockets / Warriors / Bucks with the Nuggets / 76'ers / Lakers / Trailblazers next level down I think. Depends a lot on injuries as always though. -Daniel
[2019-10-01 11:36:21] - a: I've no idea. I've gotten free trades for a year or so courtesy of having enough money with BoA / Merrill and I think they also pay interest on my USD holdings in the brokerage (which are minimal). Not sure about the lended shares. -Paul
[2019-10-01 11:26:35] - paul: i assume companies with $0 stock commissions also don't give you interest on your usd holdings. or (assuming you have one of those weird accounts) interest on your lended shares. ~a
[2019-10-01 11:16:23] - a: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-charles-schwab-commissions/brokerage-charles-schwab-to-end-commissions-for-three-major-products-idUSKBN1WG41J Stock commissions have hit $0. -Paul
[2019-09-30 15:45:01] - ok, good points. i was envisioning (again) a protestant parking lot. ~a
[2019-09-30 15:27:24] - a: Can't speak to if Xpovos goes everyday, but I don't recall anything indicating Catholics were expected to go every day. -Paul
[2019-09-30 15:26:43] - a: https://www.stbernpar.org/praying/schedules Here is the schedule for the church where I went to grade school (and was an altar server). If I recall, the early weekday masses were mostly elderly people who were probably retired. -Paul
[2019-09-30 15:24:25] - wait, what? mass every day? what? i guess i don't know shit about catholicism. does xpovos go every day? ~a
[2019-09-30 14:58:34] - a: You envision or you know? Granted, I haven't been in awhile, and my experience is mostly limited to Catholic churches, but I thought there was usually mass every day of the week and I don't recall church parking lots being overly skewed towards SUVs. -Paul
[2019-09-30 14:54:40] - (the parking lots) also a complete waste of land 6 days per week. ~a
[2019-09-30 14:54:03] - because i envision church parking lots filled to the brim with SUVs? ~a
[2019-09-30 14:27:10] - a: Why is it unexpected? -Paul
[2019-09-30 13:00:36] - one of my strava buddies bikes to church. i love that for some reason. maybe because it's so unexpected? ~a
[2019-09-30 12:52:46] - kids bike themselves to school, duh. it worked for me, therefore (please respect the therefore), it will work for everyone. ~a
[2019-09-30 12:26:06] - a: If I got a three person bike for my kids and woke up at 5 am so we had time to bike there and also shower and change after arriving for times like today when it's raining? I suppose you're right.
-Paul[2019-09-30 11:54:57] - paul: (in other comments that are only here to piss you off, and are entirely rhetorical) you wouldn't have problems finding time to exercise, (you know what, i'm not going to say it). ~a
[2019-09-30 11:53:15] - paul: i'll tell craig that you hate him and that's why you don't want to come. ~a
[2019-09-30 11:17:09] - a: So bizarre (the TNG video), and yet I want to watch more... -Paul
[2019-09-30 10:24:21] - a: Probably can't. Don't get me wrong, I would love to play, but I don't know if I can justify adding yet another sedentary game when I already have Starcraft 2, Gears 5, other single player video games and I am struggling to find time to exercise. Sorry.
-Paul[2019-09-30 09:38:16] - paul: xonotic tonight? ~a
[2019-09-29 09:15:30] - https://youtu.be/gEdyde0QGZQ tea with jean-luc. apparently there are a bunch of these. ~a
[2019-09-27 10:16:00] - Daniel: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/9/27/20884231/nba-championship-race-2019-20-season-preview Who do you think is the favorite in the NBA this season? -Paul
[2019-09-27 10:01:29] - ah. ~a
[2019-09-27 09:56:35] - a: It's not the news, it's the regulations. -Paul
[2019-09-27 09:55:30] - you think vaping is doing badly? i'm not sure if any news about how vaping is "bad for you" will hurt their bottom line
~a[2019-09-27 09:36:27] - a: Yeah, I more meant their business might've been hurt. I can't remember if they were involved in the vaping business at all, but I could see them having leveraged up to grow and then suddenly a drop in vaping business put them in a bad spot. Mostly just speculation right now. -Paul
[2019-09-27 08:57:04] - paul: the most recent drop affected kshb only. the other stocks are unaffected. (iow. there has been a downward trend on all weed stocks the last few years, kshb only affected by the offering in the last 24h) ~a
[2019-09-26 16:20:26] - a: I wonder if this vaping business is hitting them hard at a bad time. -Paul
[2019-09-26 16:20:06] - a: And the thought is that there is no reason to do that unless you are desperate for money. -Paul
[2019-09-26 16:19:46] - a: Heh, yeah, down like 35% today. From what I can tell, they're pricing an offering at $1.75 a share, which was significantly lower than the share price was (and comes at a time when the share price is already pretty low relative to the past year or two). -Paul
[2019-09-26 16:18:40] - a: No, I'm saying that Trump supporters aren't going to see wrongdoing no matter what. Although, I believe the Obama administration didn't have the best record on whistleblowers either. -Paul
[2019-09-26 16:18:32] - paul: what's up with kshb? i saw the news (something about a kshb public offering?) but i don't get it. ~a
[2019-09-26 16:17:53] - you mean me? i don't follow. ~a
[2019-09-26 16:13:37] - a: The same way the phone call wasn't quid pro quo? Tribal blinders.
-Paul[2019-09-26 16:10:17] - "i want to know who’s the person, who’s the person who gave the whistle-blower the information? because that’s close to a spy. you know what we used to do in the old days when we were smart? right? the spies and treason, we used to handle it a little differently than we do now" how is this not witness intimidation? president donald trump wants to kill the whistle-blower. ~a
[2019-09-26 16:01:56] - a: Thanks. I'm thinking of diversifying some of my Vanguard retirement monies into their REIT fund/etf (I guess VNQ?). -Paul
[2019-09-26 16:00:41] - stupidest part is that yahoo finance DOES have this information. they call it closing price adjusted, and if they used that it would include dividends etc. ~a
[2019-09-26 16:00:02] - it does not, that is correct. it sucks. ~a
[2019-09-26 15:59:28] - a: So, when I compare the performance of VNQ to the S&P on something like Yahoo Finance, does it not take into account dividends? -Paul
[2019-09-26 15:57:55] - or vgslx if you'd prefer not to use the etf. ~a
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