prev <-> next
[2021-01-06 16:21:50] - Paul: I didn't see a way to enter your own either. Just see examples of what they did. -Daniel
[2021-01-06 16:18:20] - paul: (coincidentally on-topic regarding politics on an investing twitter persona) do you think my gains today in the stock market challenge are because of the senate runoff? mj and pbw are up *big* today and i think that's because mitch mcconnell might not be running things in the near future? ~a
[2021-01-06 16:03:49] - so . . . the total list of images you can see is probably pre-rendered . . . but it seems dynamic as you're clicking around. ~a
[2021-01-06 16:03:37] - a: Sorry! I sometimes miss posts. I'll go back and check. Thanks! -Paul
[2021-01-06 16:01:40] - yes! daniel already asked that and i responded. all of the underlined stuff (in the black examples) can be clicked on and you get a dropdown. ~a
[2021-01-06 15:57:41] - Re: DALL-E. Did you guys find a way to create your own stuff? I just skimmed the blog and saw the stuff they were able to make which seemed awesome (although I am now starting to get worried about SkyNet). -Paul
[2021-01-06 15:56:47] - aDaniel: Thanks! I've been working hard on my twitter game. Really leaning into making it pretty exclusively an investing persona (mostly trying to stay out of politics and such). There's a pretty robust investing community on twitter and just being open and sharing your thought process can get you a lot of exposure. -Paul
[2021-01-06 15:53:00] - Daniel: One of her picks was "sushi restaurants", so we had to find a replacement for that. Otherwise, she did pretty well. -Paul
[2021-01-06 15:52:28] - Daniel: Yes, Talia is actual Talia (ie, my daughter, the one true Talia). I didn't have to ask her to join, she wanted to! Very proud. -Paul
[2021-01-06 15:51:44] - Daniel: https://paulvsthemarket.com/fantasy-investing-2021-kickoff/ Thanks! I got a ton of participants from a new site I joined called CommonStock which is kinda like verified investing social media. -Paul
[2021-01-06 15:51:14] - hah, yeah that is so cool! paul beat you to it. i talked about our lexical chainer further down because the eerie and uneasy feelings i get looking at the outputs reminded me of that lexical chainer thing we made. ~a
[2021-01-06 15:50:48] - a: Oh, wow, I didn't notice either. I thought Henri or somebody had a big lead but apparently that switched some. Good luck. There's a long time to go. -Paul
[2021-01-06 15:49:41] - https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/ DALL·E: Creating Images from Text - aaron
[2021-01-06 15:41:50] - daniel: 130% increase in one year?
~a[2021-01-06 15:37:30] - I can just tell the number of people in stock challenge seems to have grown. -Daniel
[2021-01-06 15:37:13] - a: It does - which is why I asked? Paul has 3500 followers? I do squat on Twitter so grats there too Paul
-Daniel[2021-01-06 15:34:44] - daniel: it's not a super common name. look at her picks. seems on-brand. ~a
[2021-01-06 15:34:21] - daniel: the dude has 3500 followers on twitter. ~a
[2021-01-06 15:33:47] - Is Talia actual Talia? -Daniel
[2021-01-06 15:33:13] - -Daniel
[2021-01-06 15:33:11] - paul: congrats on getting so many participants
[2021-01-06 15:31:15] - hah i didn't realize i was #1 on the stock market challenge. lets hope this keeps up for another 359 days. ~a
[2021-01-06 15:21:50] - if i was to enter into the stock market challenge with what i actually own, it'd be a lot of vtsax vbtlx vtabx vtiax etc. ~a
[2021-01-06 15:19:35] - because dwcf is an index. i assumed indexes were not allowed. also because i want to win. and losing doesn't cost me any money. ~a
[2021-01-06 15:18:21] - a: Why did you pick ARKK instead of DWCF then?
-Paul[2021-01-06 15:17:24] - paul: nah, dwcf already exists. (its what vtsax uses). ~a
[2021-01-06 15:12:00] - a: Make your own index?
-Paul[2021-01-06 15:05:36] - yeah, i know there are other rules. i'm just not sure the other rules are "good" for holders of the funds. even if you ignore the "secret council" part, the rest of the rules should be easy-ish to pass through if you want your fund/index to be profitable in the long run. ~a
[2021-01-06 15:03:46] - a: There are other rules like 4 consecutive quarters of profitability that they didn't meet until like two quarters ago. Also, it ultimately boils down to the opinion of some secret council or something. As we discussed before, even an index like the S&P is sorta actively managed, just less so. -Paul
[2021-01-06 15:03:39] - a: I think they have a luxury brand. Acura maybe? But yeah not as big as lexus for sure.-Daniel
[2021-01-06 15:03:01] - a: Yeah thats fair - I guess Toyota has offerings in more categories. Makes sense now that I think about it more but it was still a surprise. -Daniel
[2021-01-06 15:01:34] - daniel: does honda have an equivalant to lexus or scion? (scion brand discontinued in 2016) ~a
[2021-01-06 15:00:51] - daniel: i'm not surprised. sure, the corolla and civic are comparable in sales (300k/year each in the united states), but the rest of the toyota line beats out the rest of the honda line: rav4, tacoma, highlander, prius. the prius has no competitor in sales until very recently. i didn't realize that there are twice as many camerys sold than corollas. also international sales show a very different picture. ~a
[2021-01-06 14:50:35] - a: I'm surprised at how much more Toyota has than Honda. In my head those were more comparable. -Daniel
[2021-01-06 14:36:21] - paul: their rules for what gets added to the s&p500 left tsla out way too long. they were in the top 500 . . . what, 9 years ago? if i were a big promoter of s&p500 funds, i'd be pissed. ~a
[2021-01-06 14:08:15] - a: S&P is a bad market timer. Bought near the high.
-Paul[2021-01-06 03:34:11] - ha, yeah. though most of those tasty gains required you to have non-s&p index funds. ~a
[2021-01-06 01:45:16] - Anybody who has an S&P index fund is a TSLA holder.
-Paul[2021-01-05 22:58:56] - somebody send this link to dewey? i know that a bunch of us are tsla holders, but still i think dewey needs to see this
~a[2021-01-05 22:12:56] - "the exact same teapot" . . . their definition of "exact" isn't very exact
~a[2021-01-05 22:11:35] - this kinda reminds me of the lexical-chainer that aaron and i made. ai can create very eerie outputs sometimes. ~a
[2021-01-05 22:10:54] - the text prompt + image prompt together is fucking crazy, but some of the images are just weird! ~a
[2021-01-05 22:10:06] - daniel: (to find the underlined text, you have to click on one of the examples in black) ~a
[2021-01-05 22:09:32] - daniel: you click on the underlined text and there's a drop-down on each one. ~a
[2021-01-05 22:00:57] - is there a place to enter your own text input or just see their examples? -Daniel
[2021-01-05 21:35:58] - jeeze, a bunch of these are hexagons. is it so dumb that it can't tell the difference between a pentagon and a hexagon? (/s). jeese this is really cool stuff. i love that you can change the prompts. a sphere made of hair. mind blown. it "is unable to reliably count past three" haha i was noticing that too: four and five basically means "a bunch". ~a
[2021-01-05 20:57:50] - https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/ This looks crazy. -Paul
[2021-01-05 15:59:58] - yep. ~a
[2021-01-05 15:59:36] - a: Wed work for sc2? -Daniel
[2021-01-05 02:25:45] - https://reason.com/2021/01/04/andrew-cuomo-vaccine-distribution-rules-100000-fine-threat-to-public-health/ Some Cuomo actions regarding COVID and vaccinations. -Paul
[2021-01-04 21:38:46] - here's the thing that i think got the little play in the press. it was near the end. regarding personal information / privacy: "is it possible, if the [georgia] secretary of state could deputize the lawyers for the president". this statement was made by some georgia lawyer on the call. maybe this is common, but its the one thing that surprised me. lawyers usually have access to (some) private data (discovery etc) when arguing a case. ~a
[2021-01-04 21:32:05] - a: It honestly seems like it is the only tool in his arsenal: belligerent and overconfidence wearing down. -Paul
[2021-01-04 21:25:14] - i listened to the full 1 hour audio at 2x. (caution, if you do this, they bleep out a few short parts, and the bleep is VERY loud). its basically what you'd expect. it's ~95% trump talking, and all of the responses from other parties are all very short and polite. trump doing his normal thing "we won, and we won big: you know that right?" that sort of thing. i'm pretty sure he's done well in the past wearing people down this way. ~a
[2021-01-04 21:08:03] - a: I don't know anything of this outside of headlines I have read, but it sounds like Trump was asking for them to find enough votes for him to win because.... He's Trump and thinks he always wins and can't conceive of him actually losing. It probably should be illegal, although I don't know if it is or not. -Paul
[2021-01-04 20:44:08] - i am also skeptical of anything happening. but . . . like if something did happen, what would it be? like, what *should* happen? ~a
[2021-01-04 20:35:00] - a: My vote would be it is illegal and he should face consequences but I'm skeptical of that happening. -Daniel
[2021-01-04 20:25:26] - "i just want to find 11,780 votes" thoughts? trying not to be to cynical here: what could he possibly mean by "find" here? like, why 11780? 2473633 - 2461854 = 11779, he wants to "find" a number of votes that put him at exactly the number of votes to win? isn't it a little late for that? how would any electors even be allowed to legally change their vote? how this could possibly be spun as anything but strictly illegal? ~a
[2021-01-04 18:55:13] - a: I believe it is in the process of being acquired by Salesforce (CRM), so that probably puts a floor on the price. -Paul
[2021-01-04 16:46:45] - i'm a little surprised that slack's stock is only down 1% today (ticker symbol work). their website and app have been down all morning. ~a
[2021-01-04 15:55:22] - a: Got it, thanks! -Paul
[2021-01-04 15:25:59] - paul: arkk+pbw+mj+ura+upro. ~a
[2021-01-04 14:16:01] - a: Last chance for if you want to submit Fantasy Investing 2021 picks, btw.
-Paul[2021-01-04 14:15:32] - a: Gurkie actually quizzed me on some COVID stats recently and while I didn't necessarily do well, I was usually on the right track on things in terms of per capita numbers (ie, I would guess the answer was some low population mid-west state, but pick the wrong state). -Paul
[2021-01-04 14:14:23] - a: "i'm not sure i watch the same media you do" Apparently not. The headlines from the tweet I posted are pretty typical of most of the coverage I have seen in the mainstream media. Cuomo is the savior who can do no wrong, and DeSantis is the devil who can do no right. I also consume other media (all pretty niche libertarian flavored stuff) which sometimes gets into the big mistakes made by Cuomo. -Paul
[2021-01-03 21:30:13] - paul: the vaccine is a perfect chance to turn a new page. the number of vaccines already administered is mind blowing. and the states with the most vaccines per capita are not what you'd expect: 3% of west virginia, and 3% of south dekota have received their first dose already. ~a
[2021-01-03 21:17:56] - dc really turned things around. for the first time its better to be in dc than the dc suburbs. ~a
[2021-01-03 21:16:54] - maryland: #7. ~a
[2021-01-03 21:13:55] - paul: things have gotten so much worse in the rest of the nation: if you sort states by "active cases" per capita, neither state is in the top 15 anymore. . . . virginia though . . . #8. ~a
[2021-01-03 21:13:20] - paul: i'm not sure i watch the same media you do, but nobody i've seen has given new york or florida a pass. they were both hit hard and the media wasn't sugar coating the situation in either state. one governor was saying and doing the right things, and one governer was saying and doing the exact wrong things. their numbers (today and in the past) look pretty similar, but one is a big apple, and one is a big orange. ~a
[2021-01-02 21:24:42] - a: And the evidence is... that NY is doing more testing? Okay, I suppose that's laudable, but I personally would take less covid deaths per capita over more testing as an important metric. -Paul
[2021-01-02 21:23:47] - a: But this is still kinda besides the point. I feel like in order to justify the drastically different coverage that the different governors have been getting, there would need to be pretty clear evidence that NY was really doing better than Florida. -Paul
[2021-01-02 21:20:22] - a: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/nyregion/nursing-homes-deaths-coronavirus.html I've seen evidence that, despite the fawning over Cuomo and his positive reviews, that he made some pretty damning decisions regarding nursing homes. -Paul
[2021-01-02 21:16:50] - a: It frankly looks like Florida is doing not just a better job by a much better job. Maybe that is in spite of the governors instead of because of them, but I haven't seen a ton of compelling evidence supporting that. -Paul
[2021-01-02 21:15:14] - a: When in reality, by what I consider to be the primary metric that counts, New York is not only worse than Florida but a lot worse. Does DeSantis deserve some criticism? Probably! Does Cuomo deserve some praise? Maybe! But if we're looking at the ultimate results of whose citizens are best being kept safe from COVID... -Paul
[2021-01-02 21:13:42] - a: Right, we agree that there are nuances that probably matter in terms of testing rates and whatnot. My point is more than, given the media coverage, one would think that Florida is some hellish wasteland where people are dropping dead of COVID all over the place and New York is some utopia where everybody is immune thanks to their heroic governor. -Paul
[2021-01-02 16:21:29] - https://www.businessinsider.com/cuomo-obliterates-own-undeserved-covid-19-hero-myth-2020-11
[2021-01-02 15:47:28] - I'm not interested in defending Desantis. That aside, Cuomo's response to the virus was pretty dismal, and certainly not worthy of the accolades he receives from media. - mig
[2021-01-02 06:11:02] - paul: desantis results do not speak for themselves, and his actions do not speak for themselves either: the florida governor has been towing the party line: that covid is not dangerous, masks do not help the problem, and the cure should not be worse than the disease. he falsified his numbers: and went after the whistle-blower. why would you even try to defend this? ~a
[2021-01-02 06:07:18] - paul: there's also testing. new york does WAY more testing than florida. new york is one of the few states that has more than 1 test per person. florida is in the bottom half of states by testing pp. which should show you that new york having fewer cases is more meaningful: the case data is hiding way fewer undiagnosed infections. ~a
[2021-01-02 06:06:45] - paul: "The results kind of speak for themselves, right?" maybe, but not in the way you think. "his state has handled COVID worse than most (including Florida) by most metrics" not at all. you're right, by one metric fl is beating ny. but otoh, i already mentioned the cases: florida has more cases than new york (pp). but there are others too: new york has high mask use: florida has been hovering around 70%, new york is around 81%. ~a
[2021-01-02 05:52:52] - paul: it has nothing to do with charisma but sure charisma is required for his job. he is charismatic and the words he is using are the opposite of the ones that desantis is using. why does it matter? because he's telling people to wear masks and stay home and desantis is sidelining health experts, and undermining health experts and scientists, and rejecting mask mandates. if you don't know why that matters i'm not sure how to reply. ~a
[2021-01-02 05:03:38] - a: Okay, so maybe Cuomo is more charismatic (not sure I agree, but let's just assume for now). Why does it matter? The results kind of speak for themselves, right? Cuomo talks a good story but his state has handled COVID worse than most (including Florida) by most metrics. -Paul
[2021-01-02 04:17:34] - i watched andrew cuomo's briefings in ~may and they were amazing. ny handled it better and its not even close. ny handled it basically the opposite of how florida handled it. ~a
[2021-01-02 04:12:47] - paul: keep reading that section . . . it has dozens of others. ~a
[2021-01-02 04:10:44] - paul: desantis "rejected the implementation of a statewide face mask mandate", and "belatedly implemented stay-at-home orders", and "let his stay-at-home order implemented in April expire" and "largely sidelined health experts and scientists". the cdc "briefed DeSantis that Florida was already experiencing community spread of COVID-19... DeSantis publicly denied that Florida was experiencing community spread" ~a
[2021-01-02 04:01:26] - a: NY handled it better and isn't worse off? By what measure? -Paul
[2021-01-02 04:00:59] - a: I don't think those headlines should really be written about any governors because of the lack of nuance, but doesn't it seem especially wrong that the praise and barbs are being directed the way they are? -Paul
[2021-01-02 04:00:03] - because they're not worse off and they did handle it better. ~a
[2021-01-02 03:59:20] - a: Oh, absolutely agree. There is no nuance here, which is a large part of the problem. But another interesting part of the problem is how the non-nuanced takes seem to agree that the worse off state has somehow handled it better. -Paul
[2021-01-02 03:59:17] - nah, you need more nuance: you know testing was really shitty at the beginning of the pandemic. it's still shitty. it used to be more shitty. ~a
[2021-01-02 03:58:25] - a: Like, which is "better"? Lots of people getting the virus but not many dying, or not many people catching it but lots dying? I know that an oversimplification, but you get my point. One could argue that NY having more deaths with less cases is even more daming. -Paul
[2021-01-02 03:57:57] - paul: "shouldn't deaths per capita be more useful?" yes. its the best single metric. but if you want nuance, you should definitely not use a single metric. ~a
[2021-01-02 03:57:15] - a: "florida has MORE cases per capita than new york" Sure, but if we have to pick one metric to use (and to be clear, I think a single metric is always going to be lacking), shouldn't deaths per capita be more useful? -Paul
[2021-01-02 03:51:57] - Daniel: Got it, thanks! -Paul
[2021-01-01 21:51:28] - paul: put a comment but i think you have to approve it? -Daniel
[2021-01-01 18:02:15] - did he think nobody would call him on this? ~a
[2021-01-01 17:13:59] - paul: its the things you already said. cherry-picking and nuance. florida has way fewer deaths, true. but that doesn't mean they are doing better (florida has MORE cases per capita than new york), or whether their administration has helped or hurt the situation (for fuck's sake, ron desantis). imo its one of those "in spite of vs because of" situations. ~a
[2021-01-01 03:00:01] - Reminder on Fantasy Investing 2021. Get your picks in before the market opens in 2021! -Paul
[2021-01-01 01:11:24] - And while I can understand that the situation might be more nuanced than just boiling it all down to a single metric (ie, NY got hit first and Florida had advanced warning, etc), I've read enough of those articles to know that the meat of the article typically doesn't get into that nuance. -Paul
[2021-01-01 01:10:18] - https://twitter.com/DrewHolden360/status/1344439485770199040 Honest question, but can anybody provide a good explanation for this? I'm pretty sure it's not cherry picking, because I've noticed the same thing in terms of Florida always being the target of negative coverage and NY being praised for their superior handling of things. -Paul
[2021-01-01 01:08:21] - mig: Oh, I know, but it just looks pretty glaring immediately on the heels of an article about San Francisco condemning a donation to their hospital.... at least to me. -Paul
[2020-12-31 14:33:14] - paul: eh, its the standard donation driving all the publications do at this time of year. - mig
[2020-12-30 20:07:37] - https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/recode/2020/12/3/22151273/mark-zuckerberg-general-hospital-san-francisco-naming-vote Whatever you think of what San Francisco did here, I thought it was ironic that Vox was soliciting donations right after the article. -Paul
[2020-12-30 20:07:31] - https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/recode/2020/12/3/22151273/mark-zuckerberg-general-hospital-san-francisco-naming-vote Whatever you think of what San Francisco did here, I thought it was ironic that Vox was soliciting donations right after the article. -Paul
[2020-12-28 19:03:38] - Wednesday is out for me, but the other days are tentatively free. -Paul
[2020-12-28 17:52:35] - yes! i'm free every day except thursday night
~a[2020-12-28 17:51:46] - SC2 this week? -Paul
[2020-12-27 03:52:54] - mig: i dunno, man. ~a
[2020-12-27 00:55:17] - a: at this point what would these pardons be diverting from? The Trump presidency is over. - mig
[2020-12-26 04:39:41] - merry christmas! ~a
[2020-12-26 02:32:54] - Merry Christmas =) -Daniel
[2020-12-24 19:37:48] - i know you probably heard about the blackwater pardons, but here's a link about the original story if you missed it like i had. is the pardon diversion tactic? if not, what's the argument for pardoning these guys? "blackwater has maintained its contractors had merely returned fire". i assume there is evidence to the contrary if they ended up in jail? is there evidence that this was a miscarriage of justice? ~a
[2020-12-23 22:49:42] - a: But also thats why I think I might be cheating in terms of how I'm defining the problem. If we assume the object is taking all the energy regardless of speed then yeah its the same number cause then its just math. -Daniel
[2020-12-23 22:49:32] - "I can just move so I don't take all the energy" sometimes. sometimes you can move out of the way. when the cruise ship is docked, you might find the cruise directors keeping you away from certain parts of the dock for this reason. ~a
[2020-12-23 22:47:30] - Cause I don't have to stop the cruise ship, I can just move so I don't take all the energy. The coffee cup I'm going to stop so I am going to take all the energy. -Daniel
[2020-12-23 22:46:57] - So its not about the energy its about how much energy I aborb and if I have a chance to mitigate that. -Daniel
[2020-12-23 22:46:35] - I think anything once you cross a certain threshold is worse than anything slow. Like I'd rather get hit by a cruise ship at 1mph cause I can just sway / move out of the way after initial impact. A coffee cup at 10 mph would hurt more I think. -Daniel
[2020-12-23 22:39:37] - daniel: ok, now how about a 2lb sledge hammer at 50mph? i looked it up, and even the 2lb sledge hammers are still pretty dangerous looking.
i don't disagree that the 35 mph sledge hammer would probably do way more damage to a person: but remember i wasn't suggesting that it be used on a person. i was suggesting we use them on a car. ~a[2020-12-23 22:35:11] - The reason I worry about cheating is because I don't think the human has to absorb all the energy from the car because they can move even after initial impact is made. Its to late to move if something hits you at 35mph. The initial impact is the impact and now you have absorbed all the energy. -Daniel
[2020-12-23 22:33:48] - I'm not sure if its cheating but in the scenario where I'm walking / biking across a sidewalk I 100% of the time choose the car cause while it will bump me I can react and move / sway / whatever and maybe it knocks me off course but I don't think it does anything major. A 4lb weight at 35mph seems like it might could kill me if it hit me in the head. -Daniel
[2020-12-23 22:26:41] - daniel: "move / sway with a 1mph impact" you usually don't have control over how this happens though. you could get lucky. i don't think i'm looking at the worst-case scenario though. ~a
[2020-12-23 22:25:00] - danile: the jerk won't matter much at the end of the day, imo. what'll matter is the energy: when its an inelastic collision, and momentum isn't conserved, its even worse! that energy is mostly translated into deforming the human. ~a
[2020-12-23 22:22:29] - daniel: i understand your point, but at the end of the day, the energy has to go somewhere, and usually most of it goes into the human (what isn't accepted by the break pads). ~a
[2020-12-23 22:20:52] - Also if the object (human) is free standing they can move / sway with a 1mph impact easier than 35 mph impact. If we trap your shin in a metal vice and hit it wtih a car at 1mph then maybe it starts to get more equal? -Daniel
[2020-12-23 22:20:04] - a: I think partly its the time over which the impact takes place? Maybe some assumptions about the thing being hit. Like the 1mph car takes longer so you can squish more / easily / deform around impact vs the 35mph impact which is faster thus injures more because there is less time for the object (human) to squish / deform around impact. -Daniel
[2020-12-23 22:18:28] - a: I get the as a measure of energy they can be equal but I think there are other physics involved than just measure of energy in terms of injury suffered by thing hit. -Daniel
[2020-12-23 22:14:14] - daniel: you're discounting that the car at 1mph has almost 2 metric tons behind it. the 4lb hammer might be able to do some damage in certain contexts, but the car has the same energy: it's super counter-intuitive. the car can break bones in ways that are non-obvious and yeah, it's not easy at 1mph, but it's possible. it's just like an optical illusion of sorts. we're just so used to living with cars, that we take it for granted? ~a
[2020-12-23 21:13:46] - a: I think there is probably some physics of momentum and point of impact and focus of the enery. I would also think that a car a 1mph would do less than 4lb's at 35 mph. -Daniel
[2020-12-23 21:02:44] - paul: i guess i'm not most people here. depends on how we measure damage? dollars or "years lost" (from our previous conversation)? i guess the thread of my counter-joke is that slow-speed of heavy things still delivers a wallup? it's hard to actually comprehend the huge amounts of energy that car or suv momentum can deliver. ~a
[2020-12-23 20:02:03] - a: I understand where you are getting your comparison from, but I feel like most people would agree that a 1 mph nudge from a car is likely to cause less damage than a 4 pound sledgehammer at 35 mph. -Paul
[2020-12-23 17:22:41] - for reference, 200 joules would get a 4 pound sledge hammer up to ~35 mph. ~a
[2020-12-23 17:22:11] - paul: i was thinking about your 1mph joke when i was riding by the falls church courthouse yesterday
i'll counter with my own joke: you can hit jaywalkers at 1mph (200 Joules depending on the size of your car) if i'm allowed to nudge a car driver's windshield with 200 Joules or nudge a car driver's mirrors with 200 Joules if they fail to stop for a pedestrian in a crosswalk, or punish-pass, park in a bike-lane, etc. ~a[2020-12-23 16:41:41] - yes, very close to my back yard! i rode past there just last night. ~a
[2020-12-23 16:10:22] - "a very, very, very small step in a long overdue journey to battle systemic racism" - seems an appropriate description. -Daniel
[2020-12-23 15:56:55] - https://wset.com/news/local/fairfax-county-judge-black-man-courtroom-portraits-white-judges Offered without comment, mostly because I have nothing to say, but I found it interesting since it's right in many of our backyards. -Paul
[2020-12-22 19:40:28] - a: Yes (mostly because I double checked
). The Freedom Portfolio tracking was pulled from my spreadsheet which I am a lot more confident in than the calculation I did in about 2 seconds. -Paul[2020-12-22 19:32:16] - are you sure you didn't forget to subtract one on the freedom portfolio?
~a[2020-12-22 19:30:34] - a: Oh, sorry, 160%. Forgot to subtract the 1, which means the Freedom Portfolio IS beating ARKK! -Paul
[2020-12-22 19:26:19] - paul: what sort of crazy math have you been using. arkk is not up 260% ytd. which makes me heavily question your 187% number. ~a
[2020-12-22 19:07:18] - I was going to brag to bring on ARKK since the Freedom Portfolio is up 187% YTD, but then I checked and saw that ARKK is apparently up like 260% YTD (!!!). -Paul
[2020-12-22 19:05:46] - a: If you picked ARKK x 5 then I wouldn't be sure if I should be happy that you seem to have come around to my side in terms of ARKK vs VTSAX or to be sad that you are abandoning individual stocks for an ETF.
-Paul[2020-12-22 19:03:38] - what's weird about this list is that it's a bunch of american pickup trucks and german sportscars, then the one odd man out: the subaru wrx?! zero suvs on the list? so weird. ~a
[2020-12-22 19:02:12] - or maybe i'll just go heavy-etf? arkk+pbw+mj+ura+upro. ~a
[2020-12-22 18:57:40] - what if i picked arkk*5 for the 2021 fantasy investing? ~a
[2020-12-22 18:51:51] - "it is odd" the problem seems to be getting worse, but maybe its always been bad. and i just never noticed it? i hardly did any biking in fairfax county until after i had been biking in alexandria a bunch. ~a
[2020-12-22 18:49:27] -
yes thank you, ok. whew. ~a[2020-12-22 18:49:03] - a: Oh! Okay, sorry, I get it now. Yes, I agree. I think I've even commented to Gurkie before that it is odd that those lights don't allow walking even when they should (ie, the light is red for cars). -Paul
[2020-12-22 18:42:52] - also remember that you've lived this every day and probably don't notice it. i'm sure you've seen a white-man without a pedestrian before, right? not like everywhere, but in some places (and everywhere in arlington, alexandria, etc) ~a
[2020-12-22 18:39:42] - "Why should cars have to wait for pedestrians who aren't there?" nah, they don't. we're talking about having a white hand when the cars have a green light. "What's wrong with a button to indicate there is a pedestrian present who wants their turn to cross?" see my analogy pls. if you don't understand it i'll def explain differently. ~a
[2020-12-22 18:38:21] - a: " the "red hand of death" will stay red forever, even when the cars have a green, if you don't push the beg button." At the risk of reigniting the debate... I feel like this is how it should be. Why should cars have to wait for pedestrians who aren't there? What's wrong with a button to indicate there is a pedestrian present who wants their turn to cross? -Paul
[2020-12-22 18:18:45] - paul: imagine a world where you come up to a green-light, and you're about to go, but wait, no! you "came up" to that green light: it wasn't green *when* you were waiting. so, you have to wait for a red, THEN a green, THEN you can go. at. every. intersection. do you follow this analogy? this analogy is why i'll never move further out into the suburbs. being a pedestrian out there sucks. ~a
[2020-12-22 18:00:15] - paul: not the first thing, sort of the second thing. the way the buttons work in arlington and ffc are very different: in arlington, the button will get you a white-hand quicker, but you'll still get it when the cars get a green regardless. in ffc, the "red hand of death" will stay red forever, even when the cars have a green, if you don't push the beg button. link ~a
[2020-12-22 17:52:37] - a: Not sure I understand your point about beg buttons. You are saying we should get rid of walk/don't walk signals for pedestrians at intersections? Or not have them tied to pushing a button? -Paul
[2020-12-22 17:48:48] - paul: (i know this isn't you. this is *other* people) what us pedestrians/cyclists really hate are the people that don't even slow down for the right-on-red. some people see pedestrians and cyclists in the crosswalk, and still try to careen around us. its really bad out there, paul. i often have to remind myself that its safer to be outside of the car than in it.
~a[2020-12-22 17:43:33] - paul: "really helpful to improve flow of traffic". please don't look at it this way: what i do in your situation is stop on the red, THEN creep into the crosswalk. creeping into the crosswalk on a red isn't illegal. not stopping was the (minor) mistake and both ways increase traffic flow! traffic cameras will even write you tickets based on this situation automatically in virginia (i know from experience, hah) ~a
[2020-12-22 17:43:32] - paul: i'll be in your corner on this one. in the "top 10 list of things i hate about our car culture", people not stopping on a right-turn-on-red isn't even in the top 10 list. what *would* make it into the top 10 list, in this situation, is the "beg button" (google it) aka the "red-hand when cars going that direction have a fucking green". that is the a REAL pain point in parts of fairfax county and it kinda makes me hate ff county. ~a
[2020-12-22 17:31:48] - a: I am in the wrong, I know this. And so I feel bad when he has to slam his breaks on to avoid hitting me. Felt terrible about it. But this kind of illegal thing (pulling into the crosswalk so I can see if I can turn on red) is something I (and everybody else) does all the time and I think it's really helpful to improve flow of traffic. -Paul
[2020-12-22 17:29:13] - a: I (used to) hit this intersection pretty much ever weekday and 99.9% of the time this is no problem. This particular day, though, there is a cyclist coming down that crosswalk, so I basically pull out right in front of him into the cross walk when I have a red light. -Paul
[2020-12-22 17:26:53] - a: Uh, the specific example I am thinking of is: Pulling up to an intersection (red light) in the right turn lane. There are lots of cars to the left waiting at the light. I plan to pull up far enough to see past those cars so I can turn right on red if there is a break in traffic. This involves me driving into the crosswalk, though. -Paul
[2020-12-22 17:21:58] - "cyclist hitting me" you'd need to explain this more. (i'll be back in a few, so take your time) ~a
[2020-12-22 17:21:26] - a: I have also had close calls where I almost caused an accident (technically it would've been the cyclist hitting me, but I would've been in the wrong). I felt terrible about it every time! I hate that feeling. -Paul
[2020-12-22 17:21:13] - "I would be perfectly happy if we just completely separate cyclists/pedestrians from drivers" i'm on the fence about this. i worry this is impossible. let me explain why i think this. we all want to get to the same destinations (!!!), so if cycling/pedestrian usage were to go way way up (please please please), then cars would need to worry *more* about hitting somebody, not less. ~a
[2020-12-22 17:19:28] - a: Honestly, I think we could probably agree on this: I would be perfectly happy if we just completely separate cyclists/pedestrians from drivers. I know you don't believe me, but I have absolutely nothing against cyclists/pedestrians. Quite the opposite! My biggest issue with jaywalking and stuff is that I am terrified I am going to hit somebody. -Paul
[2020-12-22 17:18:30] - paul: yes, i do want to flip that script. and you'll still be able to get where you want by car. but, instead of 15 minutes it'll take you 20. and carbon output, and heart disease, and colon cancers, and lung cancers, will all drop by half (let me dream, damn it!). wait, no, traffic will actually go down, because induced demand goes both ways? . . . i know i'm dreaming. ~a
[2020-12-22 17:15:47] - a: ""jaywalking" as a concept enforces that cars are the "main" road users" I don't care much about this (either way). You want to try to flip the script and make roads for pedestrians and not cars? Sure, fine, as long as I can still get to places I want to in the most convenient way possible (which 99% of the time is via car). -Paul
[2020-12-22 17:14:02] - i've had a ton of close calls with cars, and they've never been at 1mph. ~a
[2020-12-22 17:13:50] - I just want a way to express my displeasure at people breaking the rules.
-Paul[2020-12-22 17:13:37] - "I feel like the police have better things to do" this is such an understatement of the issue though. "jaywalking" as a concept enforces that cars are the "main" road users! in most places in the united states we have prioritized vehicular travel to the expense of all other transport. its pretty much the only thing i truly hate to the core about our culture: our culture has lots of ups and downs, but this is a big "down" imo. ~a
[2020-12-22 17:13:12] - i know he's joking. ~a
[2020-12-22 17:13:01] - "a car nudging a jaywalker at 1 mph" - Does this happen? oO -Daniel
[2020-12-22 17:07:48] - a: As much as I hate jaywalking... I'm kinda okay with decriminalizing it because I feel like the police have better things to do. Can we have a trade-off? Can we decriminalizing a car nudging a jaywalker at 1 mph as well?
-Paul[2020-12-22 17:05:41] - also super proud an arlingtonian proposed it. ~a
[2020-12-22 17:04:05] - i didn't realize that 90% of jaywalking charges (in nyc) were non-white people, but honestly i'm not surprised. ~a
[2020-12-22 17:02:34] - paul: paul, paul, paul omg paul. its your favorite article (i'll try not to bring up "why" its your favorite article, i know its a sore-spot). but honestly i've become such a pro-pedestrian person in the last decade, when i (sort-of, but not really) stopped using my car. ~a
[2020-12-22 17:01:14] - hmmm. normal rush is cheese, good point. i don't hate normal rush though
~a[2020-12-22 17:00:54] - Paul: I've started to mix in some zergling rushes! -Daniel
[2020-12-22 17:00:34] - a: I think at large anything where you don't plan to macro - have the game last past like 5/6 minutes is probably "cheese" in some manner. But its probably an eye of the beholder type thing as well. -Daniel
[2020-12-22 16:59:41] - This might be controversial, but as annoying as it is, I actually sometimes wish we did MORE cheese (including cannon rushes) when it's just us because I could use more practice dealing with it AND I would rather lose to cheese from friends than cheese from strangers. -Paul
[2020-12-22 16:57:53] - i honestly don't consider proxy as cheese. maybe i need to see a definition of cheese? cannon rush is the only cheese that i truly hate, and consider the "one true cheese". (mostly because cannon rush against protoss, and me specifically, works like 1000% of the time) ~a
[2020-12-22 16:55:03] - paul: You don't have to know ahead of time - I was just checking / curious. I'm fine trying off race wacky games. More chance to work on my cheese
-Daniel[2020-12-22 16:49:17] - a: Yeah, it's weird how there are so many different ways to get stock market data and almost all of them are pretty flawed in some way. -Paul
[2020-12-22 16:48:24] - paul: This question is locked and replying has been disabled ~a
[2020-12-22 16:47:16] - fuck. well fuckem. ~a
[2020-12-22 16:47:00] - a: I don't think google finance has adjusted close? -Paul
[2020-12-22 16:46:45] - Daniel: Just checked, should be good for tonight. -Paul
[2020-12-22 16:46:18] - paul: yeah, adjusted close works for disney! disney 2019-12-13 (right after the last dividend): close=146.38, adjustedClose=146.38. 2019-12-12 (right before the last dividend): close=147.76, adjustedClose=146.88. so, if you look at the adjustedClose at the beginning and end of a timeframe, it'll include dividends. but you have to look at both adjusted close values at the end time. it also works for splits. and stock dividends? ~a
[2020-12-22 16:44:46] - Daniel: Also, I had an idea of a tweak we could try tonight: For some games, Adrian and Daniel can play as non-Protoss and non-Zerg respectively, and everybody else takes on a handicap of some type (10%?) -Paul
[2020-12-22 16:43:57] - Daniel: I think game time decision, but I am hoping to make it. Would it help to know in advance? I can probably get clarification by this afternoon. -Paul
[2020-12-22 16:42:46] - paul: check out the adjusted close. *some* apis (maybe?!) include cash AND stock dividends in the adjusted close price (they go back and change the historical adjusted close price, not the current adjusted close price). i haven't looked super close at this: i understand the concept only peripherally. ~a
[2020-12-22 16:40:25] - Paul: Any update on sc2 tonight or is it more of a game time decision type thing? -Daniel
[2020-12-22 16:38:26] - a: Heh, yeah, I wish there was an easier way to count dividends than to have to do it manually. "Luckily" Disney halted them so it hopefully doesn't have to be dealt with this time. -Paul
[2020-12-22 16:37:22] - The slight downside? A large part of it is because of the rise of a stock I bailed out on earlier in the year.
-Paul[2020-12-22 16:37:16] - paul: lol, i was about to be like OMG paul count dividends: it'll get you from 18% to 20% on disney! but then i found out that disney halted dividends (which had been super regular every half) because of coronavirus lock-downs affecting their business. ~a
[2020-12-22 16:36:47] - I have passed Dewey "Tesla and Teladoc" in fantasy investing! -Paul
[2020-12-22 15:52:01] - title: That is so gross. -Daniel
[2020-12-21 17:18:25] - a: Kinda, yeah.
Making judgements on how the media should work, not on how lives should be valued. -Paul[2020-12-21 16:46:44] - gotcha, yah. you're making some moral judgments and not other moral judgments?
~a[2020-12-21 16:31:11] - a: Well, I guess it's understandable from a "sensationalistic" standpoint. I guess I mean it is less supportable to me based on the evidence. -Paul
[2020-12-21 16:26:46] - what do you mean by that last message? terrorism and homicide aren't understandable? they do affect "years lost" more relative to "deaths". ~a
[2020-12-21 16:24:27] - a: Terrorism and homicide doesn't seem to make the list. -Paul
[2020-12-21 16:23:58] - a: Well, we're talking about media coverage and google searches, right? So I'm not trying to make any moral judgements. I'm more talking about what feels understandable to me. It's understandable if the media were to overly focus on certain things (and for people to be overly worried about certain things). -Paul
[2020-12-21 16:19:37] - paul: its even worse for your argument if you look at the "years of burden" graph. . . . i'm not even sure if "years lost" is even the best way of looking at things. (this could easily get us off topic quick, but) abortion increases the happiness of the world, but also greatly effects "years lost" depending on how you define it. can we look at the happiness of the world somehow? ~a
[2020-12-21 16:17:20] - paul: nah, i'm starting to disagree with you again. if you look at my previous graph on years lost, you're overcounting the things "killing teenagers". focusing on "years lost" doesn't change the results as much as you think. ~a
[2020-12-21 16:15:32] - a: I think it has to be a delicate balance of avoidable AND years lost. If there is something preventable killing a million teenagers, that seems more newsworthy than something preventable killing a million 90+ year olds. -Paul
[2020-12-21 16:12:53] - we need to drink water, yes good point. i guess i forgot for a second that running-water wasn't always a thing. ~a
[2020-12-21 16:12:18] - a: From an evolutionary standpoint? I guess because we also need it. We don't need to hang out with snakes or be up high.
-Paul[2020-12-21 16:10:38] - paul: i agree. but it makes little sense, right? a "natural" death that is totally avoidable, should probably get more reporting. avoidable and unavoidable should be the real dimension? we tend to ignore avoidable deaths a bunch. ~a
[2020-12-21 16:08:05] - paul: yes its weird. i wonder why we aren't (most of us) more afraid of water? is it a learned behavior? fear of snakes, and spiders etc, and heights, is huge, and fear of water is (relatively) small. ~a
[2020-12-21 16:07:54] - a: I wonder if there is an aspect of natural vs unnatural too. We (as a country) argue a ton about stuff like gun deaths even though it appears to be pretty rare because getting shot to death probably does hit a little differently than dying of cancer. -Paul
[2020-12-21 16:06:47] - daniel: i know you'll be looking at me to be a tie-breaker, but i can do either day (today and tomorrow, i'm also free wednesday). i'm free every day always! . . . this week we need to start on-time so i can also do adventofcode
~a[2020-12-21 16:04:54] - a: Yeah, this is a point that needs to be driven home more. Oddly enough, just yesterday I was talking to my kids about the likelihood of being killed by a black panther vs drowning.
-Paul[2020-12-21 16:02:04] - paul: it won't change the facts: terrorism and homicide are pretty insignificant. and car crashes, diabetes, respiratory diseases, and drug use are under-reported. ~a
[2020-12-21 16:00:26] - paul: yep. years lost is a good metric. i found some graphs (this one looks at years of burden/loss, instead of just loss due to death and still puts heart disease at the top), but they aren't as good as this one: just ignore heart disease? ~a
[2020-12-21 15:52:08] - a: Like, it's sad if a 90 year old dies of heart failure.... but it's also not super surprising or unexpected. But if a 14 year old dies of terrorism, that feels like a bigger deal to people. Isn't there a metric for that? Something like years lost? -Paul
[2020-12-21 15:50:59] - a: Yeah, love that. My only tiny quibble would be that I would be interested in seeing that "causes of death" graph for people under the age of.... 70? Some arbitrary cut-off. Because I think it is somewhat reasonable for people to be searching for (and the media to be reporting on) causes of death that might be considered premature. -Paul
[2020-12-21 15:50:53] - Paul: ~just emailed~ -Daniel
[2020-12-21 15:47:59] - Daniel: For SC2 this week, earlier in the week is better for me. As it gets later in the week, I am less and less likely to be able to participate (but it's totally fine if later works better for others). -Paul
[2020-12-21 15:36:03] - a: That is a cool graph. -Daniel
[2020-12-21 15:21:39] - i know the media has a tendency to report on what we want to see reported, but i'm not sure if that actually fully explains the problem. cool graph that shows what we look for in google searches and what the media reports on (and what people die of). ~a
[2020-12-21 05:20:51] - if you guys like programming, https://adventofcode.com/ is pretty fun. ~a
[2020-12-18 17:49:13] - def glad i have been listening to npr this week: i learned about both the second look act and the clemency initiative on the radio. ~a
[2020-12-18 17:43:17] - a: "did you skip the clemency initiative link?" I did! Sorry. Missed that whole message. Let me take a look. -Paul
[2020-12-18 17:27:35] - paul: "President Trump recently commuted the sentences of Crystal Munoz, Judith Negron and Tynice Hall." 3 vs 1800? ~a
[2020-12-18 17:26:36] - "What did Obama do during his administration" 1800 commutations? a drop in the bucket, sure, but it ended in 2017. ~a
[2020-12-18 17:25:12] - paul: "commutations he has done" did you skip the clemency initiative link? ~a
[2020-12-18 17:24:26] - it'll never pass of course. but you know why, right? they're just now talking about who's fighting against it: guess who. it almost seems to go in the face of what we "know" about republicans when it comes to criminal justice reform: it's "soft on crime". and this isn't just a perception: republican legislators constantly push this viewpoint. ~a
[2020-12-18 17:24:23] - a: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kim-kardashian-west-meet-trump-recently-commuted-prisoners/story?id=69386103 Well, there was the first step act and the commutations he has done. What did Obama do during his administration? -Paul
[2020-12-18 17:20:02] - paul: #3, i just turned on npr just now and they're discussing this literally. the second look act. lol, sponsor D-NJ. ~a
[2020-12-18 17:12:12] - paul: the two biggest changes on that front i know of were revolving around "ending the drug war" which seemed to start happening around 2012ish (so, like not right away): 1. obama stopped procecuting schedule-1 weed offenses at the federal level and obama started the clemency initiative. both of those things started going backwards around january of 2017. ~a
[2020-12-18 17:11:50] - paul: "A reminder that Trump has actually been better on criminal justice reform than Obama was" ok i'll try to play devil's advocate here? was obama worse on criminal justice reform than trump? i'm not sure i need a reminder that the opposite is true? ~a
[2020-12-18 16:45:44] - I think Pauls position re criminal reform is some fair. I think there is some nuance there but I don't it changes his overall point at the federal level much. I think the difference in the parties shows up more in DA / AG type positions. Also recently weed laws. Does police reform fall under the criminal justice umbrella or that a separate thing? -Daniel
[2020-12-18 16:43:14] - I'm pretty solid D yeah but I don't know all the bills that are proposed either. -Daniel
[2020-12-18 15:57:16] - paul: yep, daniel, pierce, and aaron are the token democrats here. i'm maybe the one one here that votes for democrats and non-democrats on occasion? ~a
[2020-12-18 15:56:39] - https://paulvsthemarket.com/fantasy-investing-2020-end-stretch/ Don't forget to get your Fantasy Investing 2021 picks in soon! -Paul
[2020-12-18 15:54:17] - a: It's fine. You don't have to know everything about legislation proposed by Democrats.
-Paul[2020-12-18 15:48:21] - yah, prolly. i haven't been following it at all, sorry. ~a
[2020-12-18 15:48:11] - getting blame and credit for shit they aren't doing at all is fairly typical in washington. ~a
[2020-12-18 15:47:29] - I'm assuming I'm wrong and Democrats have proposed things, though. I just don't hear about them. -Paul
[2020-12-18 15:47:00] - I dunno, it just seems odd to me that Democrats always seem to get the credit for being for criminal justice reform, but they never seem to get anything done (or even try), even going back to Obama's terms, but Rand Paul and Justin Amash are proposing all sorts of things and yet they're the ones getting bicycles thrown at them (or whatever) and being told to "say her name". -Paul
[2020-12-18 15:45:23] - a: Yeah, the first step act was a bipartisan bill, but it was proposed by a Republican (which I guess goes partially to your point as well). -Paul
[2020-12-18 15:44:54] - a: Sure, I definitely agree congress is broken, but at least Amash and Paul are trying even if it doesn't go anywhere. Democrats haven't had a problem proposing bills for all sorts of other stuff (https://www.vox.com/2019/11/29/20977735/how-many-bills-passed-house-democrats-trump) -Paul
[2020-12-18 15:03:24] - paul: yeah, bipartisan. that's another way to break the cycle. but it also is a counterexample to your own first pass at this debate: "have there been any police reform legislation offered by Democrats lately?" yes, see your last comment? ~a
[2020-12-18 15:02:18] - paul: i do. but here's where the circular logic stops: we can't propose any criminal justice reform bills because mcconnell won't let them up for vote. want proof? mcconnell won't let *any* of our bills (criminal justice reform bills or otherwise) up for vote. ~a
[2020-12-18 15:01:48] - a: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Step_Act Was listed as a bipartisan bill. -Paul
prev <-> next