prev <-> next
[2021-11-15 16:16:23] - paul: "or invested in one" maybe i missed some context. bernie sanders doesn't own any stocks? ~a
[2021-11-15 16:16:21] - a: And for this particular point of "who has contributed more to society", I certainly think it is relevant. -Paul
[2021-11-15 16:15:54] - a: No, I don't think you need to be a business person to lead at all. I DO think that people who haven't started a business (or invested in one) might not have full appreciation of the risks and challenges involved in the whole endeavor, though. -Paul
[2021-11-15 16:10:59] - "aren't the doors in lets make a deal just as symmetrical" no, not after you are given information about them. ~a
[2021-11-15 16:10:43] - paul: "Do you know if he ever started a business" based on reading his wikipedia article, i'd say no, he probably did not. but, like how is that relevant to literally anything??? like 1% of middle-class americans start a business (but sadly, i just made that statistic up). do you need to start a business or be a businessperson to lead? "businessmen" leaders are almost always lacking, imo. run the company like a business! ugh. ~a
[2021-11-15 16:09:44] - a: Wait, aren't the doors in lets make a deal just as symmetrical? -Paul
[2021-11-15 16:07:56] - paul: "That makes no logical sense, but I guess it makes 'math sense'". no the whole point was that it made no sense: unlike let's make a deal, the envelopes are literally symmetrical. . . . and therefore the math must be wrong. he did eventually get to: "ok, here is where i was lying" by the end. ~a
[2021-11-15 16:07:49] - a: Okay, maybe I'm wrong. I skimmed his wikipedia article and didn't see any of that listed. Maybe I missed it. If so, I suppose it's an inaccurate accusation. Do you know if he ever started a business? -Paul
[2021-11-15 16:06:47] - a: https://www.xprize.org/prizes/elonmusk I suppose it's fair to think it's all a cover for just being greedy, or whatever, but he has been pretty consistent for a long time about talking about climate change and helping to stop it and why would he create a EV company of all things if he wanted to get rich? -Paul
[2021-11-15 16:06:24] - paul: "interview for a job or whatever" i'm like 100% sure this is false. he held waaay too many odd jobs to not have needed to interview (see my last comment). ~a
[2021-11-15 16:05:50] - paul: "Will you at least admit that never having had ANY job outside of politician might be a negative here, though?" no never. but even if i did (which i don't), it wouldn't apply to bernie sanders. he's held odd jobs: head-start teacher. psychiatric aide. carpenter. writer (before his job in politics). film-maker (before his job in politics). ~a
[2021-11-15 16:04:46] - a: Like, it would be one thing if he worked for a few years in the private sector making houses or... whatever. But I'm not even sure he's ever had to like sign up for a 401(k) or interview for a job or whatever. It's a little weird. -Paul
[2021-11-15 16:00:57] - paul: "help fight climate change", i doubt strongly he is doing this for the good of humanity, but moreso i think most of what he does hurts the environment in the short term and the long term. "ensure humanity becomes a multi-planet species", lol wat? when he launches satellites into orbit, i cheer. but when he puts another rich person into space (or talks about terraforming mars) i roll my eyes. ~a
[2021-11-15 16:00:19] - a: Will you at least admit that never having had ANY job outside of politician might be a negative here, though? We can disagree on how admirable the job of politician is, but I feel like Sanders hugely underestimates the difficulty and risk involved with starting a company, or even just practical real world concerns by people working a normal job. -Paul
[2021-11-15 15:57:36] - a: I stopped after I got to the point (obviously super early on) where it was like: You don't know which envelop you have, but on average, the other one is going to be higher, so you should always switch! That makes no logical sense, but I guess it makes "math sense". -Paul
[2021-11-15 15:57:32] - paul: "pretty much never held a job in his life outside of politician" you (and republicans) consider this a dig. it is not a dig. statesmen, some of them, debate for a living. they get paid to debate, they get paid to speak. as they should. many of them are good at it. many of them follow logic and truth and test each-others' logic. they don't always come to the same conclusions as me, but they do make progress for and with humanity. ~a
[2021-11-15 15:56:27] - a: And his motivation for all of this is to help fight climate change and ensure humanity becomes a multi-planet species. If either of them is a free-loader when it comes to contributing to society, I would say it is Bernie Sanders by a landslide. -Paul
[2021-11-15 15:55:18] - a: And has himself become a millionaire with multiple houses.... And you compare him to Musk who (as far as I know) owns no houses, has put himself through hell to bootstrap a company that makes products that people love, will pay more in taxes this year than Sanders probably has his entire life... -Paul
[2021-11-15 15:53:58] - a: Yeah, I didn't want to get dragged into a whole debate over whether the rich pay enough taxes or what counts as a "fair share". I more just think it's rich (pun intended) that Bernie Sanders has pretty much never held a job in his life outside of politician and never created anything useful to anybody (slight hyperbole, I'll grant).... -Paul
[2021-11-15 15:53:34] - paul: yeah, i agree. if you watch to the end, the tl/dr is: math literally doesn't help here. he's like: "the E(y) is undefined". so, in other words, don't try to find the answer to E(y), because you cannot. ~a
[2021-11-15 15:52:30] - a: I haven't finished watching the video yet, but that is a little crazy and makes me question whether things like math and statistics are helpful things to know or not.
-Paul[2021-11-15 15:06:04] - paul: also this ~a
[2021-11-15 14:18:42] - paul: also this ~a
[2021-11-15 13:58:51] - paul: i thought about replying to your tweet yesterday, but didn't really want to spend a bunch of time thinking of the perfect response. here i don't have to think of the perfect response.
musk has hurt the environment, not helped it. though i'll grant you that he has helped climate change, which is what you said. and it's pretty insulting (maybe that was your intention?) that sanders hasn't created anything, of all people. ~a[2021-11-13 22:38:21] - this envelope thought puzzle / paradox reminds me of the disagreements we had in college about the Monty Hall problem (let's make a deal). it's so mind-bending and i love it. ~a
[2021-11-12 21:54:08] - steve bannon indicted. if convicted on both counts, he faces between 2 and 24 months in jail. he could still be acquitted, but i didn't even think this day (indictment for contempt of congress) would ever come. ~a
[2021-11-12 17:20:22] - a: Thanks. I think I used firecalc before. I will check out the others. I still will likely talk to a financial planner for the reasons your gave, though: They might see things I missed. -Paul
[2021-11-12 16:43:34] - paul: i also made my own, but it's a command line tool and requires access to python (and pip, the package installer for python). i've compared it to firecalc, and it comes up with the same results for many scenarios. i'd like to compare it to cfiresim-open too, so i can get a better idea of how trustworthy it is. ~a
[2021-11-12 16:38:48] - paul: "run the numbers through all the scenarios", you could consider some free tools yourself as well? 1, 2, 3? (ymmv) ~a
[2021-11-12 16:34:43] - paul: "i will pay somebody to run the numbers through all the scenarios to figure out if I am right", i like this idea. hiring a financial planner (which i only did ~6 months ago) has been enlightening. they pointed out stuff in my plan that was sub-optimal and their tools that i now have access to have showed me things i couldn't model myself. ~a
[2021-11-12 16:32:38] - a: "a 50% chance of failure feels too high for me" I agree, and I would want something closer to a 75% chance or so, which is why I am trying to use conservative numbers across the board and when I think I am close, I will pay somebody to run the numbers through all the scenarios to figure out if I am right.
-Paul[2021-11-12 16:31:22] - a: I would rather have a year of retirement now(ish) and then have to go back to work for a few years because things didn't work out, then to play it safe and work another 10 years until I have a 99% chance of success and not get to enjoy life until my kids are away at college and I am too old to enjoy traveling the world. -Paul
[2021-11-12 16:31:15] - paul: that being said, your "plan" of doing a sabbatical when your kids are young, and you have a lot of money saved up, doesn't sound bad especially if you're planning (mentally) to go back to work. ~a
[2021-11-12 16:30:03] - paul: that oversimplification is probably too oversimplification-ee. but even if it was totally right, a 50% chance of failure feels too high for me. getting a job in retirement is easier said than done when it's tied together with a downward market and high inflation. ~a
[2021-11-12 16:29:52] - a: I might argue it could be worthwhile just taking the plunge. If I get lucky and it works out, great! If I am unlucky and we see a 30% pullback in my first year.... then I go back to work. The worst case scenario is that I am back to where I am now (with a little less money) and I get to experience a few months/years of freedom while still close to the prime of my life and while my kids still like hanging out with me. -Paul
[2021-11-12 16:27:57] - a: But let me play some devil's advocate here: Let's say that with a flat 5% return going forward I could retire today (and let's assume my calculations are correct). So, I would have roughly a 50% chance of it working and a 50% chance of it not? Is that a fair oversimplification? -Paul
[2021-11-12 16:24:48] - paul: aah yes. this is very true. i did do that in a google sheet once and it was a miserable failure. so, i hear you on that. i think maybe simulators will help out with figuring out a SWR that can be used in a google sheet? most SWRs i've seen are much lower than 5%, but they do often have inflation baked-in. ~a
[2021-11-12 16:16:08] - a: "a flat 5% return doesn't really account for the percent of failure scenarios that a simulator would point out" Yup, I get that, but I don't have the skills to account for that in my google sheet.
-Paul[2021-11-12 16:14:14] - paul: "I have penciled in a 5% return in retirement for my retirement plan" have you looked at any simulators? a flat 5% return doesn't really account for the percent of failure scenarios that a simulator would point out. ~a
[2021-11-12 16:12:28] - a: "you might not feel this way in retirement" Fair, although I would note I am (sadly) not in retirement yet. I do get your point, though. After some research, I have penciled in a 5% return in retirement for my retirement plan. That seems crazy low to me considering my past returns, but I do acknowledge that is probably factoring in trading some upside (ie, growth stocks) for some "safety" (ie, bonds and whatnot). -Paul
[2021-11-12 15:52:56] - paul: i don't know your specifics, so obviously i can only guess, but if you said this to a retirement planner, they might tell you that you can't retire early? ~a
[2021-11-12 15:51:17] - paul: "If I'm trading potential upside away, then I want as much certainty as possible" you might not feel this way in retirement. trading potential upside away for some middle-ground is exactly what 100% of all target-retirement funds do. i can't guarantee your plan will change, some people retire with 100% stocks, but i also feel like this is very inefficient. ~a
[2021-11-12 15:48:09] - a: Heh, yeah. I'm a simple man. If I'm not investing in something as volatile as stocks, then I just want to know I'm going to get as close to a guaranteed return. If I'm trading potential upside away, then I want as much certainty as possible. -Paul
[2021-11-12 15:26:48] - paul: ugh. maybe i shouldn't have suggested tips to you. if you're looking at ibonds, you're probably interested in a guaranteed return. this is not the case with bond funds of any kind. ~a
[2021-11-12 15:24:37] - paul: "I'll try taking a look at TIPS". the * big * thing to consider here is that the bond market defines how much bonds and tips are worth. typically that amount doesn't change much, but counter-intuitively, when interest rates rise bond/tips funds lose a very small amount of their value (they will often recover eventually). "That means the 7% isn't really guaranteed for a full year, just half of it?". correct. ~a
[2021-11-12 15:23:40] - a: Yeah, I guess loophole was the wrong term. Just a really odd policy I guess. -Paul
[2021-11-12 15:22:00] - a: I'll try taking a look at TIPS. Which provides the better return right now? Also, I'm a little unclear how the iBonds returns work. It gets re-evaluated every 6 months, right? So in May of next year the return could go from ~3.5% (for 6 months) to something significantly lower? That means the 7% isn't really guaranteed for a full year, just half of it? -Paul
[2021-11-12 15:21:11] - it's not a loophole, no, it's specifically defined by their policies (dumb policy imo). "SOL", no you can "register" them. which makes them electronic. not a loophole, just a fucked up policy. ~a
[2021-11-12 15:20:17] - a: "if you want those, you can buy another 5k/person/year" What an odd... loophole? Are we talking about literal pieces of paper that if I lose I'm SOL? -Paul
[2021-11-12 15:07:33] - paul: oof: "if this is not a gift registration, you must be named as the first-named registrant". maybe i'm wrong a second time? ~a
[2021-11-12 14:53:44] - paul: "you might have to create two accounts to get the 20k", never mind, you can create multiple "registrations" (people) per account. ~a
[2021-11-12 14:42:44] - paul: people are already mad at this judge for being hard on the prosecution, so it won't take much to set people off. ~a
[2021-11-12 14:40:14] - paul: Yeah I don't think judge's statements are bad either? I'd probably want someone to explain to me how / why they felt offended. -Daniel
[2021-11-12 14:39:45] - paul: you might have to create two accounts to get the 20k, i'm not sure. i assume you're ignoring the paper-ibonds? if you want those, you can buy another 5k/person/year. ~a
[2021-11-12 14:38:51] - paul: you might also like tips. doesn't work in exactly the same way, of course, but it's very similar. when inflation goes up, so do your dividends. tips are paying out crazy amounts of dividends (double the amount of dividends of other bond funds). ~a
[2021-11-12 14:38:40] - Paul: Yes on Ibonds as I understand it. -Daniel
[2021-11-12 14:36:41] - https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/11/us/kenosha-judge-bruce-schroeder-asian-food-comments/index.html Am I the only one who doesn't see at all how this is "inappropriate" or "racist"? -Paul
[2021-11-12 14:27:47] - a: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_iratesandterms.htm Whew, so iBond rates are getting real. ~7% a year right now? I guess I need to take them seriously. So Gurkie and I could both buy $10k worth a year? We have until Dec 31, 2021? -Paul
[2021-11-12 03:51:41] - paul: yes i think remote work could help the problem some. "that would mean a whole lot less need for expanded roads" i feel that would mean a whole lot more of a need for contracted roads. but, i wouldn't hold my breath: i don't doubt many people will go back to working in offices. i just wish they could go back with a better public transportation. ~a
[2021-11-12 03:39:42] - All of this isn't necessarily to defend him. It still seems a bit like he was looking for trouble crossing state lines with a gun like he had. But once again this seems like a far more nuanced case than: "Obvious white supremacist chases down poor peaceful BLM protesters and murders them in cold blood" -Paul
[2021-11-12 03:38:22] - Re: Rittenhouse. I'm also learning new things all the time too, having not followed the case at all before. For example, I didn't realize both his victims were white and had some pretty nasty looking criminal records. Also, there is video of at least one of them assaulting him AND Rittenhouse was working as a medic while there? -Paul
[2021-11-12 03:35:50] - a: Couldn't a strong argument be made that more remote work post-pandemic could help lead to greater movement towards your dream world? For instance, if like half the people actually had to drive into DC every day for their job, that would mean a whole lot less need for expanded roads. -Paul
[2021-11-11 20:34:07] - another thing i like to see there is where bad mistakes were undone. i mentioned this last month, but here are some links to actual changes, some of them super recently: germany (this city less dense than dc), columbia (this city less dense than dc), and mexico (this city more dense than dc) ~a
[2021-11-11 20:33:16] - i assume you guys saw the newest subreddit getting positive attention?! r/fuckcars?
links, like this and this. ~a
[2021-11-11 15:38:38] - thanks, i hate lord of the rings, done today ~a
[2021-11-10 20:28:24] - https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1458484389365563403 yeah this is not going well. I'm honestly surprised the judge let this part go on for as long as it did. - mig
[2021-11-10 20:03:31] - Yeah I haven't been following super closely but saw that the prosecution dropped the ball significantly more than once - mainly about being surprised at their own witnesses answers to things I think. -Daniel
[2021-11-10 19:41:48] - https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1458487908810125313?s=20 judge is having a mad at the prosecution. Oof. - mig
[2021-11-10 19:11:03] - mig: ah yes, probably! i've only read a few articles on this. i thought the medic with unregistered gun was also shot. how many people were shot? the medic with the unregistered gun and two other people, or one other person? ~a
[2021-11-10 19:09:52] - a: I think you mixed up who said "fuck you and reached for his gun" (allegedly) - mig
[2021-11-10 18:24:21] - paul: "the article indicated that witnesses reported that one of the people he shot had said, 'Fuck you' and then reached for his gun". yes i also heard this. . . . that's the medic that had the unregistered gun too, right? yikes! nuanced and rittenhouse might be a (felonious) asshole. ~a
[2021-11-10 18:20:49] - mig: "Why are you conflating all these things like they’re equivalents of each other". it's an analogy. they aren't equivalents, they're similar. if you're ok with one, and not ok with the other, that's 100% fine of course. but, you should probably have a reason, right? ~a
[2021-11-10 17:05:12] - a: "was this in your article somewhere?" I'm not super clear on the specifics of the trial, but the article indicated that witnesses reported that one of the people he shot had said, "Fuck you" and then reached for his gun. -Paul
[2021-11-10 17:04:21] - a: That's fair. I guess I was thinking that going out and looking for trouble (but not necessarily starting it yourself) is significantly different from going out with intent to shoot up a bunch of people, but I suppose the line is pretty murky at points. -Paul
[2021-11-10 16:24:40] - Why are you conflating all these things like they’re equivalents of each other. They’re not. - mig
[2021-11-10 15:52:08] - mig: but not mandated seatbelts? not mandated airbags? mandated pedestrian warning? mandated other stuff? ~a
[2021-11-10 15:50:40] - a: I’d demand near perfection for FSR if it was mandated. - mig
[2021-11-10 15:49:47] - paul: but also, "only shooting at people who are threatening you" . . . was this in your article somewhere? i didn't see that part. i didn't mean that when i said "both", i meant both of the things you said: it could be both nuanced and he [could be] a white supremacist who went out to find BLM supporters to kill. ~a
[2021-11-10 15:48:51] - nah, i disagree. it could easily be both. i'm going to go out and talk shit in a riot/protest/unrest and threaten some people with a gun, and only shoot people who threaten me back? that seems like a perfect plan if you don't care about the health of yourself or others. ~a
[2021-11-10 15:45:58] - a: Could have elements of both, but it's a little hard to be somebody going out looking for people to murder AND only shooting at people who are threatening you. -Paul
[2021-11-10 15:24:26] - paul: it still could be that its both. ~a
[2021-11-10 15:23:12] - https://apnews.com/article/kyle-rittenhouse-racial-injustice-wisconsin-kenosha-homicide-21bc78b702c2998ba227216aeebed2c5 Anybody following the Rittenhouse trial? I hadn't been following it at all until very recently. I just assumed, based on the media coverage, that he was clearly a white supremacist who went out to find BLM supporters to kill. Sounds like it's a lot more nuanced. -Paul
[2021-11-10 03:48:05] - mig: how often do seatbelts cause death / serious injury? there are even crazy situations where wearing a seatbelt causes more injury than not wearing a seatbelt would have caused. or even death. same question for airbags? do airbags cause death and injury on occasion? i feel like these things happen, right? don't most people say that FSD needs to be "better" than humans, but not perfect? why should this be any different? ~a
[2021-11-10 00:26:25] - And by ready, I mean it'd better fucking work properly close to 100% of the time as possible, because any false positives by that system are going to suck. - mig
[2021-11-10 00:24:24] - a: I'm aware that there's already tech to detect for potential impairment. The 2nd part described (actually slowing down the stopping the car), I wasn't aware of it being ready. I'd be skeptical of it being ready by a 2026 timeline based on what I've been reading. - mig
[2021-11-09 19:33:31] - daniel: the facebook posting by the district attorney uses the word "juvenile" four times in two sentences. my guess is that he won't be tried as an adult. ~a
[2021-11-09 19:31:19] - a: I wonder if he pleas out to something lesser? Given the witnesses involved it seems like it would be hard to get off completely unless there are new facts brought to light. -Daniel
[2021-11-09 19:19:35] - daniel: finally charged! better late than never, i guess. looks like the prosecutor went with felony for the 16 year-old . . . six of them, actually. big oof. ~a
[2021-11-09 18:55:33] - mig: do we get a yikes from you dawg about government mandated seat-belts? or mandated airbags? or mandated pedestrian warning systems? that thing where the electric cars make an audible noise when they're driving slowly? ~a
[2021-11-09 18:07:16] - "passively monitor the performance of a driver of a motor vehicle to accurately identify whether that driver may be impaired" my wife's car literally already does this. I'd love normalizing that driving is dangerous akin to owning a gun and that better options exist. ~a
[2021-11-09 17:44:41] - mig: ok i'll bite. why yikes? ~a
[2021-11-09 16:57:12] - https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-technology-business-health-068ee87392b0cca1444053b854a514dd i guess while we are talking about road safety. Major yikes from me, dawg. - mig
[2021-11-09 13:06:18] - a: Looking at this guy's twitter feed he's pretty clearly a democrat. I do think at least he is making a good faith effort to do a post mortem on the VA election. But yes, his criteria could have gotten some never trumper republicans. - mig
[2021-11-09 03:32:18] - "bet you if you gave their names we'd find at least a couple who have been long time republican activists"
~a[2021-11-09 03:31:01] - https://twitter.com/dannybarefoot/status/1457774095618109447 Sorry, apparently that link doesn't work for some reason. I guess he threaded his tweets oddly? This one might work better. -Paul
[2021-11-08 22:05:37] - https://twitter.com/dannybarefoot/status/1457773727156879379 I might be the only person who finds this interesting, but here is some data from a survey done on VA voters who went for Biden and Northam before and flipped to Youngkin in the recent election. -Paul
[2021-11-08 20:08:52] - a: No idea! I know nothing about the ACA, except their website didn't work ages ago.
-Paul[2021-11-08 20:05:23] - paul: are hdhp + hsa allowed in aca? (yay acronyms!) ~a
[2021-11-08 20:04:29] - a: Is there a reason I wouldn't consider enrolling in the ACA? I honestly haven't given much thought to the specifics of health insurance in retirement. I probably would lean towards a high deductible plan because I like those and HSAs, but that's about all I've thought about. -Paul
[2021-11-08 20:03:15] - a: I don't necessarily have a problem with either, but both are definitely more sophomoric than I would expect from 50+ year olds worth billions of dollars. -Paul
[2021-11-08 19:54:05] - i've always been running with the theory that your portfolio balance is unknowable, but at least your budget for spending is super-knowable, right? well i'm starting to realize that both are unknowable (because spending includes taxes which are dependent on your portfolio balance, and this also affects your aca reimbursements, oof) ~a
[2021-11-08 19:49:49] - daniel: understood. i just noticed that some people on reddit were saying that the aca subsidies were pretty sweet for retired people, so i ran the numbers and noticed that it would potentially be 1000s per year depending on your magi after retirement (which i feel is dependent on the unknowable cost-basis). ~a
[2021-11-08 19:47:06] - Yes I would consider it. I don't have very specific plans on that front though since I find healthcare very daunting to plan for. There is just the rough number put in for budgeting purposes (ala 20k for health insurance) but thats about it currently. -Daniel
[2021-11-08 18:05:37] - paul/daniel: "then I add in around $20k for health insurance". would you consider enrolling into aca after retiring? here's a calculator. the trouble i have with planning around the aca, is having any idea what my agi is going to be. since i can only guess at my cost-basis, i can only guess at my agi! ~a
[2021-11-08 17:44:52] - paul: the bezos tweet seems pretty playful. i think it's totally fine. the musk tweet though, i it was a mistake and he was all "aw fuck. oh well, now people will just continue to think i'm eccentric" ~a
[2021-11-08 14:53:50] - https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1457720343297019909 and https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1457497438474981384 What is doing on with the world's richest men and twitter?
-Paul[2021-11-08 13:15:05] - pierce: (i forgot to mention that speed cameras also often indirectly effect the points on your license, so even if your uber-rich you'll find other annoying penalties at a certain point) ~a
[2021-11-08 13:14:57] - pierce: there's probably a reason for that, but i'm not sure what it is. for easy to consume data, this one has maps where you can watch each country with more speed cameras have less speeding. with no data, you can decry that correlation does not imply causation for only so long. ~a
[2021-11-08 13:14:50] - pierce: link 1, link 2, link 3, link 4. i had a very hard time finding studies that talked about misuse of the licence plate data, or that speed cameras didn't work. ~a
[2021-11-08 12:42:59] - pierce: *much more importantly*: the data shows that you're wrong about speed cameras working in general. speed cameras, when they're ubiquitous, work. study after study show this, so i won't post them all, but here are a few. ~a
[2021-11-08 12:42:57] - pierce: there is a flaw in your logic. you're over-counting the number of "rich" people that can truly ignore the law. by most measures i'm rich, and there is no way i'd want to pay the tens of thousands of dollars that i'd have to pay to ignore this law. would you? ~a
[2021-11-08 03:10:15] - hope this helps. see you in a couple of months!
- pierce[2021-11-08 03:08:36] - that question applies to so many things: how do you incentivize a military system to end wars? how do you incentivize a healthcare system to cure (instead of treat) disease? how do you incentivize a system where your taxes are calculated for you, when there are lobbying interests that want you to buy a copy of TurboTax? - pierce
[2021-11-08 03:02:18] - Personally I think there's an issue here we've talked about a lot: how do you create incentives and penalties for individual behavior in an unequal society (fines are hard). But there's a related question I don't think we've discussed in clear terms: how do you create a system that incentivizes its own clean demise? We don't want people to speed, how do we end that without creating a group that wants it to continue? - pierce
[2021-11-08 02:46:44] - Once the cameras are in place, though, what other incentive systems appear? I mean, they're already set up for license plate recognition, and when you combine that with car registrations (and/or facial recognition) you have very rich data for tracking individuals. There are many organizations that are incentivized to mine resources like that. So if we don't want that, then we have an incentive to reject camera coverage. - pierce
[2021-11-08 02:46:37] - But how about on the other side of the interaction? If the camera operators are the recipients of speeding fines, then they'll unfortunately prefer a system where people do speed. So cops, small towns, etc. probably don't want universal cameras, they only want local cameras to make their jobs easier while keeping the enforcement sporadic enough to make drivers think they can get away with it. - pierce
[2021-11-08 02:46:27] - although in both cases, I hope you'll agree that people are probably less likely to speed when they assume that they'll be caught. - pierce
[2021-11-08 02:46:13] - If you have universal speed cameras, then it's no longer factored into the driver's flawed probabilistic model of "getting caught". They will get caught. So what incentive system does that create? Well, some of it depends on the penalty: if it's a flat fee, then poor people have a strong incentive to stay under the limit at all times, and rich people can balance the cost against their disposable income and the value of their time. - pierce
[2021-11-08 02:46:05] - What incentive systems are you creating? If you have no restrictions, the incentive is to go as fast as possible if you don't think you'll crash [risk of death/injury/punishment/cost, or causing those to others]. Note that whether you think you'll crash is subjective and easily influenced. If you have sporadic speed cameras, that only changes the (very influencable) probability in the driver's head of whether they'll get caught. - pierce
[2021-11-06 20:45:08] - paul: "have them out in the open and have signs indicating they are there" won't this exacerbate the issue where people stop for the cameras only? everyone knowing they're literally everywhere is the best way, imo. ~a
[2021-11-06 20:01:43] - a: If the goal is to get people to slow down and not catch them speeding to make money, then have them out in the open and have signs indicating they are there. That will probably do a better job of getting people to slow down while in range of the camera. -Paul
[2021-11-06 20:00:52] - a: I don't know if I have better suggestions. I haven't done a ton of research into stuff like the main causes of accidents / fatalities (and yes, I know those are sometime different). Honestly, I think we could improve how we do speed cameras: Make them very obvious! -Paul
[2021-11-06 19:57:12] - a: Damn G and H being right next to each other in the alphabet, keyboard, AND both acronyms have meaning! -Paul
[2021-11-05 20:55:12] - paul: "Speeding is not the main cause of collisions in New York City" wtf. this article is written in such a biased light. it's not the #1 cause? so, it's like #2 then? like two sentences later "Unsafe speed pops near the top of the list only when it comes to fatality numbers". only? it's #1 ONLY when you look at fatalities? ok, paul, i guess i should have done a search.
~a[2021-11-05 20:51:15] - paul: "There's tons of articles about this". i've seen some of them. and they put it in a (popular!) light. so, let me change my argument a bit: *can/should* speed cameras work? speed cameras do change behavior. especially in places where they're ubiquitous. if speed cameras can't work, what can? the us has a speeding problem. ~a
[2021-11-05 20:46:44] - paul: "60 mph to 25 [mph] in a VERY short amount of time" i've seen this too. and i feel as angry about it as you. but . . . sometimes . . . i think about the pedestrians that live in that small town. its just as much their street as my street. and i don't think they can effectively use the street when people are driving 60 mph. ~a
[2021-11-05 20:46:00] - paul: i've never heard of a 25 mpg road. is 25 mpg the minimum or the maximum? ~a
[2021-11-05 20:43:43] - a: https://www.silive.com/opinion/j66j-2020/03/7a5c0960699331/heres-the-proof-that-speed-cameras-are-about-money-not-safety-opinion.html Do a search (that's what I just did). There's tons of articles about this. -Paul
[2021-11-05 20:42:47] - a: https://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/i-team/are-traffic-speed-cameras-about-public-safety-or-money It's not based on nothing. There's a reason the term "speed trap" even exists. There are tiny towns on the way between Northern Virginia and Rehoboth beach where the speed goes from like 60 mph to 25 mpg in a VERY short amount of time where the cops are very prepared to write tickets. -Paul
[2021-11-05 20:26:43] - paul: not everything needs to be police department gets the most money. if that was the case, they'd write zero warnings. they'd never show up to anyone's house when called. your whole "people only do things that get them money" is based on nothing. ~a
[2021-11-05 20:26:22] - a: No info on it at all and just anecdotal evidence. I suspect there is some data to back me up, but I fully admit it's mostly just a theory of mine and don't have any evidence to support me right now. I'll try to look later. -Paul
[2021-11-05 20:25:23] - paul: "It's a little weird that if speed camera work, then police departments get less funding". uhhh, yes. i see this as an absolute win. not everything the police do has to be revenue positive.
~a[2021-11-05 20:25:08] - a: Are police departments incentivized to use speed cameras to get the most people to slow down? Or to catch the most people speeding? -Paul
[2021-11-05 20:24:39] - paul: do you have any info on how common this is? this seems very rare in dc. most of the cameras are out of sight, so most of the slamming on the brakes followed by speeding up again afterwards does not happen. ~a
[2021-11-05 20:24:23] - a: And I worry that on the flip side, it's being treated more as a revenue generation tool by police departments instead of a way get people to drive safer. It's a little weird that if speed camera work, then police departments get less funding. -Paul
[2021-11-05 20:23:13] - a: Because it seems to incentivize some bad behavior more than it disincentivizes the bad behavior it's supposed to? I've seen far too many times cars go speeding along a stretch of road and almost literally slam on their brakes for the short stretch with a camera before speeding up again afterwards. -Paul
[2021-11-05 20:01:05] - hate speed cameras why? i (probably agree) that they shouldn't be used on highways or roadways without a lot of pedestrians, but i'm very pro-speed-cameras for pedestrian areas, so maybe we can discuss some time that you're not doing a recap. ~a
[2021-11-05 19:59:13] - Hate speed cameras. Can't read the other story because it is behind a paywall. It's fine, though. I really should be finishing up my Q3 Freedom Portfolio recap instead of reading it.
-Paul[2021-11-05 19:57:43] - Once again, I think the safest takeaway is to always be skeptical of these thinly investigated "news stories", especially when they so neatly fit pre-conceived narratives. They're almost always either outright hoaxes or at least much more nuanced than they first appear. -Paul
[2021-11-05 19:56:44] - yeah that was my initial take when i saw it. i was like "ha, nice take". but then it kinda spiraled out of control. doubt it changed the election, but who knows. ~a
[2021-11-05 19:55:48] - Apparently there is some proof the Lincoln Project never intended for this to be taken seriously. However, there's also proof they spread the misinformation of reporters who DID take it seriously. -Paul
[2021-11-05 19:55:13] - a: https://twitter.com/DrewHolden360/status/1456414668684148742?t=mH-YqIIrwkATGUv1yys3_A&s More evidence of things we probably mostly agree on. I don't agree with some of the editorializing on this thread, but it does have some good investigative journalism. -Paul
[2021-11-05 19:54:11] - Sorry, that was totally my bad. -Paul
[2021-11-05 19:54:02] - a: "i think i agreed with you on this, right?" Probably? It was more just extra info/evidence. -Paul
[2021-11-05 19:54:00] - a: "i think i agreed with you on this, right?" Probably? It was more just extra info/evidence. -Paul
[2021-11-05 18:36:20] - a: Thats a crazy story. Reminds me of Catch Me If You Can. Act like you belong and its fine and people just go with it. -Daniel
[2021-11-05 18:08:51] - "leadmon died in February 2021". uuuh, what? ~a
[2021-11-05 17:54:56] - in other dc news, this whole story ranks up there with "i'm outraged, but not surprised". the article is super long, and contains this gem "emergency lights and a police siren" for a normal civilian. i thought lights were for emergencies only: literal emergency lodge work. ~a
[2021-11-05 16:44:44] - i just saw this public awareness campaign in dc, and it got me thinking about speed cameras. do you guys have any thoughts on speed cameras? especially the (numerous) speed cameras in dc? ~a
[2021-11-05 16:36:36] - yah probs. ok, i'm filtering it. if anybody wants the url, i can text it to you. ~a
[2021-11-05 16:34:36] - a: I vote spam. -Daniel
[2021-11-05 15:32:59] - apparently λюбλю or люблю (ljubljú) means love in some form of belarusian or russian? it still appears to be a christian video based on some of the other text. ~a
[2021-11-05 14:11:54] - is that last message spam? i think it's not, does anybody know what that video is?
seems to be a movie about Jesus in Greek, but man, I don't get it. ~a[2021-11-03 21:28:41] - i think i agreed with you on this, right? but thank you for the insight anyways. ~a
[2021-11-03 21:27:40] - a: https://reason.com/2021/11/03/glenn-youngkin-terry-mcauliffe-critical-race-theory-virginia-governor-race/ Going back to our discussion of whether education played a role in McAuliffe's defeat, there is this line: "K-12 parents broke decisively for Youngkin" -Paul
[2021-11-03 21:13:52] - https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/03/politics/historic-firsts-2021-election/index.html Credit to CNN for leading off with Sears here. I did think it was notable how many of these "historic firsts" were not actually firsts and/or involved a woman of color running up against a woman of color (ie, was almost inevitable). -Paul
[2021-11-03 19:40:06] - a: Sounds on brand. There was no LP candidate that year. -Paul
[2021-11-03 19:31:26] - paul: "Xpovos: I think I went with NOTA. -Paul" lol, you were referring to virginia governor race! (kaine vs kilgore). ~a
[2021-11-03 18:27:58] - a: Doesn't have quite the same ring to it when you're not the President.
-Paul[2021-11-03 18:12:25] - yes. i changed brad to kelly, because kelly is our secretary of state. ~a
[2021-11-03 18:02:51] - a: I assume that's a line from Trump's call? I say do it! Barely related, I saw a number of jokes on Twitter when votes were just starting to be tabulated that Stacey Abrams had already declared herself the winner of the Virginia gubernatorial election.
-Paul[2021-11-03 17:37:15] - do you guys think i should call up the virginia secretary of state, and ask her: look, we need only 82,000 votes. we have are far more than that as it stands now. we’ll have more and more. and . . . do you have provisional ballots at all, kelly? provisional ballots? where were the poll watchers? ~a
[2021-11-03 17:07:08] - you already said no to her. ~a
[2021-11-03 17:06:59] - a: Princess Blanding of the LP? -Paul
[2021-11-03 17:01:15] - well then i can guess who you voted for.
~a[2021-11-03 17:00:51] - a: "did you vote for nota?" Nope. -Paul
[2021-11-03 17:00:39] - mig: The Biden +10 just a year ago is certainly a striking swing, no doubt. I think that number was artificially a little high due to Trump's unique repulsiveness. Likewise, this seemed to be a perfect storm to help out Youngkin in terms of low enthusiasm for Dems, low approval for Biden, AND a badly executed campaign by McAuliffe. -Paul
[2021-11-03 16:44:51] - mig: i think paul and i are both saying that its both. we're saying that the 7 point drop was *not* entirely because of enthusiasm, or who's in power, or approval ratings of biden. it's that, and his platform, and his execution. ~a
[2021-11-03 16:42:04] - paul: I think this would be a more plausible explanation maybe 10 years ago. VA has been solidly blue for a while. I don’t think you can attribute Biden +10 to a Youngkin to mostly low enthusiasm. - mig
[2021-11-03 16:40:55] - paul: did you vote for nota? ~a
[2021-11-03 16:40:23] - agreed. ~a
[2021-11-03 16:38:45] - a: Having said that, I think McAuliffe would be ready for his second term if he had done a better job appealing to moderates / independents / centrists / etc and suddenly the narrative is completely different. -Paul
[2021-11-03 16:37:45] - a: Right. I think if we're looking at some of the big drop-offs in absolute numbers (going back to the comparison of Fairfax County), then a large percentage of that is probably enthusiasm loss from Democrats due to their party being in power and Biden's approval being low. -Paul
[2021-11-03 16:32:21] - paul: its probably a healthy mix of both. ~a
[2021-11-03 16:16:32] - "major yikes for democrats today" I'm struggling with how much of this is a rejection of the Democratic message and how much is just a general lack of voter enthusiasm on the left and a lot of that has to do with how underwater Biden is. Midterms are often brutal for the party in power even in the best of times. -Paul
[2021-11-03 15:49:39] - a: https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/30/politics/terry-mcauliffe-donald-trump-virginia-governor-race/index.html and yes, all the mcauliffe ads were essentially orange man badding. - mig
[2021-11-03 15:47:40] - mig: white supremacy = orange man bad? i'm not sure i agree with either strategy, but i'm not sure i agree they're the same strategy. ~a
[2021-11-03 15:45:21] - mig: honestly i didn't see much about trump in this election. i'm sure it happened. and i did see it referenced exactly once the whole campaign. i've been able to avoid advertisements recently, thanks to streaming services. ~a
[2021-11-03 15:44:47] - https://twitter.com/jemelehill/status/1455766504650067971?s=20 umm yeah, no lessons are being learned here. - mig
[2021-11-03 15:43:54] - a: first and foremost ranting about orange man bad when orange man isn’t running is probably not a convincing argument. - mig
[2021-11-03 15:28:19] - mig: what are the right lessons? ~a
[2021-11-03 15:27:51] - major yikes for democrats today. whether they’ll take the right lessons from this we’ll see. - mig
[2021-11-03 14:27:33] - yah. ~a
[2021-11-03 14:26:59] - loudon county 62-37 biden/trump 55-45 mcauliffe/youngkin - mig
[2021-11-03 14:21:16] - paul: https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/10/26/student-walkout-loudoun-schools-assault/ the loudon county sexual assault handling won’t get talked about much, but I believe it had a pretty large impact. - mig
[2021-11-03 14:20:37] - a: Yeah, Fairfax County. Obviously wasn't a ton more than McAuliffe (or even more at all), but the fact that it was close was telling. -Paul
[2021-11-03 14:17:26] - youngkin signs in your town? i noticed a shit ton of youngkin signs in rural areas (i do a lot of bike racing outside of nova), but i notice that regarding republican signs in general. ~a
[2021-11-03 14:16:35] - Anecdotally, I was surprised by the number of Youngkin signs I saw in my area (and the lack of McAuliffe signs). Enthusiasm was definitely higher on one side. -Paul
[2021-11-03 14:16:31] - yah. i put the absolute numbers there for that reason. i think there were a lot of things working against mcauliffe, but (imo) the biggest thing was that unforced error about who should decide what teachers will teach. ~a
[2021-11-03 14:15:29] - Yeah, and the absolute numbers are important since turnout is a lot less in gubernatorial elections vs presidential. It might be less than Youngkin got support from Democrats as Democrats just didn't turn out to vote. Also, Biden's approval is underwater and VA usually elects opposite party.... -Paul
[2021-11-03 14:14:04] - a: You beat me to it.
-Paul[2021-11-03 14:13:26] - a: Looks like Trump got 28% in Fairfax County in 2020 and Youngkin got 35% in 2021. Seems like a shift. -Paul
[2021-11-03 14:12:49] - ffc: mcaul vs young 65 35 (282k to 152k). biden vs trump 70 28 (419k to 168k). so, less wide, as you were suggesting. ~a
[2021-11-03 14:11:08] - Daniel: (5) The whole masking / vaccine mandate thing might be bleeding into education as well in terms of kids being required to mask all day. -Paul
[2021-11-03 14:09:58] - Daniel: (4) There's been a lot of talk about concern over CRT being taught in school. I haven't seen much of that specifically, but I've heard enough official communication from FCPS to have me concerned over things and to have emailed the principal about the "Anti-Racism and Anti-Bias Curriculum" they said they were implementing. He said he would get back to me by end of week. That was in August and I haven't heard back yet. -Paul
[2021-11-03 14:07:44] - a: How overwhelmingly compared to the spread for Biden, though? -Paul
[2021-11-03 14:07:23] - Daniel: (2) Nationwide there has been a move to get rid of "gifted and talented" programs in terms of "equity", and some of that has been seen in the debate around TJ admissions (3) There was apparently a sexual assault in Loudon which was handled... poorly? I don't have much in the way of details and apparently there was some bad reporting around it too. -Paul
[2021-11-03 14:06:41] - paul: fairfax county overwhelmingly voted for mcauliffe
~a[2021-11-03 14:04:49] - Daniel: There's a lot of things, and it's hard to disentangle which are biggest. (1) Fairfax County Public Schools is one of the wealthiest schools districts in the country and completely failed and getting remote learning working (also, I think most parents viewed it as a disaster even when "working") -Paul
[2021-11-03 14:02:36] - daniel: i have no idea what paul's talking re charter schools, but maybe i haven't been following closely enough. on the other hand, 100% of youngkin ads had this quote from mcauliffe: "i don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach". its a very unpopular sentiment in rural areas of virginia (the non-rural areas agree with mcauliffe on this) and its very related to debates they had on critical race theory. ~a
[2021-11-03 13:55:04] - I'm not up on my local VA politics much anymore - why are parents fed up with public schools? Covid things? Is that schools or gov or is it something else? -Daniel
[2021-11-03 13:47:52] - a: It seems so out of touch to say public education needs defending and increased funding and use scare tactics about your opponent favoring charter schools and inviting Randi Weingarten to a rally after parents were so fed up with public schools the past 18 months (and while he sends his kids to private school). -Paul
[2021-11-03 13:46:31] - a: There's a notable shift in polling after that moment, yeah. I think his whole campaign was a disaster, though. As I laid out in Facebook, he very rarely seemed to make any positive points in his favor and instead just tried painting Youngkin as Trump 2.0. When he did try to say something positive about his campaign, it was focused on education. -Paul
[2021-11-03 13:31:45] - paul: yeah, i think it was the who should decide what teachers teach, or whatever, discussion that sunk him, honestly. when the tiki torch (unite the right rally) stunt happened, it was already too late. ~a
[2021-11-03 13:28:08] - a: Stop the steal! My congrats? It was closer than I thought, but I guess considering it was supposed to be McAuliffe's win still just a week or two ago I shouldn't be too surprised. -Paul
[2021-11-03 13:06:16] - paul: 50.7% to 48.6%? looks like it was <5% difference. what do i win? ~a
[2021-11-03 12:53:53] - mig: Honestly, that probably is how it should be? Except that's not traditionally how the media has covered it when it's a Democrat winning. I still remember hearing about the first lesbian mayor of Seattle, who was replacing the first gay mayor (https://rampantdiscourse.com/diversity-for-diversitys-sake/) -Paul
[2021-11-03 11:43:17] - boston’s mayoral race is way more important for some reason. - mig
[2021-11-03 11:38:22] - paul: https://i.imgur.com/9JBPgaL.jpg looks like we won’t hear much about it. The cnn article actually does mention the historic nature of Sears’s win, but it does look like they would rather downplay it. - mig
[2021-11-03 02:57:37] - https://twitter.com/MattThomasNYC/status/1455728403135582213 Speaking of fact checking... I don't know if this is true (retweeted by Glenn Greenwald, so I tend to think it is), but I am curious if Winsome Sears wins if her election would be covered as glowingly from a "black female elected!" perspective by the media as if it had been a Democrat. -Paul
[2021-11-03 02:35:00] - they fact checked a non-deleted thing. i'm not sure if i've seen them fact check deleted things. but, i bet its happened. ~a
[2021-11-03 02:34:26] - yah. uhh. i'd fact check that. ~a
[2021-11-03 02:34:13] - a: Anyway, I'm happy to let this drop and have it be an "agree to disagree". I just find it a bit sad (but not surprising) that somehow, according to politifact, the one notable thing that needed to be fact checked out of this whole affair was whether or not the democratic operatives were on McAuliffe's staff. -Paul
[2021-11-03 02:30:58] - a: Sorry, I guess that is not the campaign itself and just the communications director (possibly acting in a private capacity). I thought the campaign had one too but am having trouble finding it. -Paul
[2021-11-03 02:29:41] - a: https://wcti12.com/news/nation-world/mcauliffe-staffers-erroneously-suggest-paid-actors-dressed-as-radicals-are-youngkins “This is disgusting and disqualifying,” said Jenifer Goodman, a communications staffer for McAuliffe, in another retweet of the local Virginia reporter’s initial coverage of the incident. Both tweets have since been deleted. -Paul
[2021-11-03 02:28:33] - paul: i didn't know that. do you have any screenshots or articles about them? i heard about the surprised emojis tweet, but that was the lincoln project member. ~a
[2021-11-03 02:27:48] - a: Who made zero claims? McAuliffe's campaign? They had a bunch of tweets (later deleted) calling out the white supremacists. -Paul
[2021-11-03 02:27:38] - paul: i thought you didn't like that they fact checked that fact? ~a
[2021-11-03 02:25:57] - a: The one they rated as false which mentioned the campaign spiraling out of control. -Paul
[2021-11-03 02:25:09] - paul: "I'm fine calling it untruthful or whatever" they made zero claims, so there's nothing to check, right? can a fact-checker check a fact that hasn't been claimed? ~a
[2021-11-03 02:25:04] - a: I just find it incredible that out of this whole scenario, they found one fact check and it was a 100% rated lie against the right. -Paul
[2021-11-03 02:23:37] - paul: i don't know the answers to any of these, but i'm not sure what C means: what youngkin tweet? ~a
[2021-11-03 02:23:31] - a: Doesn't have to be coordinated. Could've been a random staffer who went rogue. Either way, whatever, I'm fine calling it untruthful or whatever. I still think it's missing the forest for the trees. -Paul
[2021-11-03 02:21:37] - a: "snopes and politifact steer away from deleted retweets, do you agree?" Not necessarily? I dunno. There's a lot of variables there. (A) Is that even a policy that they have? (B) Were all the original bad tweets deleted? (C) Is the Youngkin campaign tweet still up? -Paul
[2021-11-03 02:20:24] - paul: i disagree. the difference between whether you're registered a republican and whether you're coordinating with the campaign leadership is huge. apples and oranges, in my opinion. ~a
[2021-11-03 02:18:10] - a: I'm not sure how I completely changed anything. This all boils down to whether there is a significant difference between a democratic operative and a democratic operative on the McAuliffe payroll, right? That seems similar to whether a Trump supporter is a registered Republican or not. -Paul
[2021-11-02 19:39:03] - paul: "Or that democratic operatives tried to pretend to be white supremacists supporting Youngkin to make him look bad?" the fact checkers should fact check the "NBC News Legal Analyst with over 500k followers" maybe. otoh, my guess is that snopes and politifact steer away from deleted retweets, do you agree? is there (non-deleted) news reporting that the actors were representing *youngkin*? if not, what's there to fact-check??? ~a
[2021-11-02 19:32:33] - a: I think with what we know now MIXED would be a fair assessment. - mig
[2021-11-02 19:26:46] - paul: and snopes would be all MIXED: it's clear that this was republicans, trump supporters, and registered republicans, but it was * not * trump's campaign. ~a
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