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[2023-07-21 17:58:38] - daniel: "people don't actually know the diff b/w a stock and a bond" ugh, i wish i better understood why bond funds have been losing so much money over the past 2 years. it makes me wonder if buying bonds directly and holding them isn't smarter? i know paul was talking here about t-bills the other day. ~a
[2023-07-21 17:56:44] - daniel: my spending goals in retirement are to be the same as they are today (indexed against cpi-u). if i buy a boat or whatever, it'll fit in those spending goals. i'll try to amortize any big expenditures like that over 5 or 10 years. ~a
[2023-07-21 17:55:08] - daniel: target date index funds don't seem to work "in" retirement, though. for instance, there is no longer a vanguard 2010 target date fund or 2015 target date fund. those closed, ~5 years after the retirement dates past, and your money got automatically reinvested into vtinx. ~a
[2023-07-21 17:53:21] - I always offer more in depth explanations, like most people don't actually know the diff b/w a stock and a bond and why those things make you money, but generally they don't really want that. -Daniel
[2023-07-21 17:52:42] - Generally for my family and friends I just direct them towards whatever the age approriate target date fund is because if they are coming to me for advice it mostly means they don't want to have to think to much about it. So easy / straightforward is generally the way to go. -Daniel
[2023-07-21 17:51:52] - a: (i mean these roads are probably leading to target date index funds but...) How long till you retire? Spending goals in retirement? Want to buy a boat or anything? -Daniel
[2023-07-21 17:38:06] - oop, of time = over time. ~a
[2023-07-21 17:37:37] - daniel: i want to retire, and spend it, a little bit of time, until i die. capital preservation. cyclocross / gravel trails / mtb. ~a
[2023-07-21 17:36:56] - riding across town? dirt trails? racing? neighborhood cruising? -Daniel
[2023-07-21 17:36:22] - a: depends on what you want to do with it / what its for! -Daniel
[2023-07-21 16:11:23] - daniel: where should i invest my money? ~a
[2023-07-20 19:44:45] - a: I haven't seen it yet or paid much attention but I can imagine its a bit less of a happy place (puns!) -Daniel
[2023-07-20 19:28:08] - daniel: if you were disappointed with the "fuck" profanity (fuckcars) last time . . . i have bad news for you. ~a
[2023-07-20 18:41:29] - unless you mean 50/50 = 1 = 100%. then i agree. paul has a 100% chance of being free tonight. ~a
[2023-07-20 18:39:48] - possibility does not mean 50/50. ~a
[2023-07-20 18:39:21] - Daniel: Possibility means 50/50. I think this qualifies! -Paul
[2023-07-20 16:05:42] - paul: You said Thursday was a possibility! I feel betrayed. -Daniel
[2023-07-20 16:03:48] - a: "r/place is only available on our mobile apps (iOS and Android) and new Reddit. " - its a popular thing and they want people to switch over to these tools. I bet they thought what incentive can we give people to use these and came up with place. -Daniel
[2023-07-20 15:00:17] - 15 hottest days in the world's hottest month ~a
[2023-07-20 14:28:17] - daniel: why would reddit bring back place NOW. of all times? there's a 100% chance a good half of the themes will be how much people are pissed off at reddit. you wanna bring back place, sure, but at least give it a few more months for things to cool off. fuck. ~a
[2023-07-20 13:40:36] - aDaniel: I might have time to play SC2 later tonight, but have plans to play Hearthstone with Dave from 9 to ~10:30. -Paul
[2023-07-18 20:14:28] - daniel: no, you didn't compare them. you did, however, complain that bitcoin was boiling the ocean (hyperbole). and, i know you're pretty pro-EV even though cars kill millions of people every year worldwide. ~a
[2023-07-18 20:12:30] - a: Did I compare electric cars to bitcoin? I def don't remember doing that. I would think that the better comparison would be to what their replacing? So electric cars vs reg cars or even electric cars vs bikes for you! Bitcoin vs money or credit card transactions? Though I think that would also be tough to figure out? -Daniel
[2023-07-18 20:07:39] - daniel: 5. about 106 million people worldwide use bitcoin. looks like electric cars use 4663 kWh/person/year (or 532 W/person). and bitcoin users use 1198 kWh/person/year (or 137 W/person). (13476/100*34.6e3 vs 127e12/106e6) thoughts? ~a
[2023-07-18 20:06:24] - daniel: with a bunch of assumptions: 1. that the user of a car and the user of bitcoin are treated similarly (i get that a bitcoin user might not care about the output of their transactions compared to a transportation user's need to get where they're going). 2. 13476 miles per year driver per person avg. 3. electric cars use 34.6 kWh per 100 miles (averaged over 231 EVs). 4. bitcoin uses ~127 TWh/y (this is a noisy figure). ~a
[2023-07-18 19:58:46] - daniel: i did some envelope-math on a conversation we've had a few times but ties into a more recent conversation. inspired by this meme: https://i.redd.it/6tthx4p5vpbb1.jpg ~a
[2023-07-18 15:33:46] - xpovos: i totally believe it. hopefully they aren't holding their breath, but yeah, i have been surprised by surpreme court decisions: out with roe v wade, in with dobbs v jackson. ~a
[2023-07-18 15:29:26] - a/mig: I definitely know some "fringe" people who are all for rolling back Griswold v. Connecticut. -- Xpovos
[2023-07-17 18:02:55] - daniel: every night, thanks! ~a
[2023-07-17 18:02:33] - a:sc2 night preference? -Daniel
[2023-07-17 17:16:21] - "none of the 27 amendments to the Constitution have been proposed by constitutional convention"
~a[2023-07-17 17:15:58] - mig: actually, ok, wow. i didn't realize amendments were allowed to come directly from the states (a convention). ~a
[2023-07-17 17:14:38] - mig: well they sorta do. they are allowed to amend the constitution. . . . sorta. i know the federal gov actually needs to go through some wickets first. ~a
[2023-07-17 17:11:35] - a: The point is after Obergefell those states *don’t* have that power. And they’re not exactly aiming to get that power back in the same way they were with RoevWade. - mig
[2023-07-17 17:06:21] - wow, virginia law changed recently. i'm surprised. old language "[car drivers] shall yield the right-of-way to any pedestrian crossing such highway by stopping and remaining stopped" is now "[car drivers] shall stop when any pedestrian crossing such highway is within the driver's lane or within an adjacent lane and approaching the driver's lane". ~a
[2023-07-17 15:10:19] - anon: "Thirty states passed state constitutional amendments defining marriage as being between one man and one woman" (from wikipedia) ~a
[2023-07-17 15:09:07] - anon: i assume you mean nobody in the supreme court. many in the legislature and at the state/local level would roll it back if they had that power. regardless, amendments have been proposed, so definitely not "nobody". ~a
[2023-07-17 15:01:22] - Nobody outside of maybe Clarence Thomas is looking to roll back Obergefell
[2023-07-17 14:55:47] - for affect? yes. it's both. ~a
[2023-07-17 14:55:32] - a: there’s metaphor and there’s absurd hyperbole. This is the latter. - mig
[2023-07-17 14:34:36] - mig: the gopers/magas often do want to regulate things that do not affect other people: lots of medical decisions that affect women, emergency birth control medication, birth control devices, non-emergency birth control medication, rights of gay and lesbians to have sex among consenting adults, or to get married of all things, the rights of trans peoples, use of stem cells, witchcraft, books, sex-education, the list goes on. ~a
[2023-07-17 13:50:36] - mig: i'm so very confused by your comment. this is so clearly a metaphor. ~a
[2023-07-17 13:28:23] - https://youtu.be/z10j_H7zOb8 (campaign ad, but maybe nsfw) Did I miss something? I don’t know any gopers or magas even on the fringes who want to regulate condoms. - mig
[2023-07-13 19:52:04] - hmm, i'll skip it since i made plans after we played monday. i think so far i have every day available for next week though! ~a
[2023-07-13 19:50:51] - paul: For SC2 I think it depends on Adrian - I thought he wasn't going to be able to do much on Monday but was trying to accomodate that. I can try to get on for some too later in the evening if Adrian wants to? -Daniel
[2023-07-13 19:11:56] - daniel: yeah, i did post that. and i didn't write it. i prioritize public transportation and walking (instead of biking), especially outside of cities. everything else you say i agree with. i own two cars and use them regularly. i just wish we had more situations where that wasn't my only fucking choice. ~a
[2023-07-13 19:08:54] - -Daniel
[2023-07-13 19:08:52] - I guess specifically what prompted me to actually post about this was the title image (which I'm assuming is posted by you) is more anti car than pro bike. The is a the a 'symbol of freedom' (is it? i'm not sure I think of it that way but certainly would vote it as such over a bike) because it lets you cover long distances faster / easier the same way planes made the globe a smaller place cars made our countries / states/ cities smaller.
[2023-07-13 19:00:00] - "I'm not sure I can think of a single instance where a bike is more time and effort efficient than using my car" if it matters i think time efficiency and effort efficiency is almost never what i optimize for. i care more about overall happiness as my main factor (which i take as a broad combination of physical health, and freedom, and entertainment, and protecting the environment, and financial savings / retirement, and mental health) ~a
[2023-07-13 18:52:43] - daniel: "How is biking more friendly for the disabled / elderly than driving?" generally it's not. but more specifically many disabled and elderly people cannot drive. so public transit, walking, (and very rarely biking) are the only options for people that cannot drive. "I would make public driving transportations options better" yes, me too. ~a
[2023-07-13 18:51:09] - daniel: "you think living in a city makes cars not the optimal answer?" that's right. i'm not sure you ever lived and worked in dc, but unless you are in some edge case you're best off using a bus, using the metro, or actually walking (or fuck it, biking i guess) "what counts as living in a city?" i guess ask the census bureau, but i do agree this is a point of contention. ~a
[2023-07-13 18:51:07] - a: How is biking more friendly for the disabled / elderly than driving? I would make public driving transportations options better. But that is still a driving thing not a biking thing. -Daniel
[2023-07-13 18:49:21] - a: I'm not sure I get your point - you think living in a city makes cars not the optimal answer? I think even living in a city I would still choose a car the vast majority of the time. Also what counts as living in a city? -Daniel
[2023-07-13 18:48:52] - daniel: "I'm ok with minorities having their voice hear but" some of these minorities are not proposing their preference, but they are proposing their predicament. a good quarter to a third of america is either too young, too old, too poor, or two disabled to even make a choice about driving. what do we do about them? fuckem? ~a
[2023-07-13 18:47:02] - daniel: "Generally speaking I want the time and effort it takes to get from point A to point B to be some combination of fast and easy as possible" generally speaking this applies well to you and most people who don't live in cities. but people keep forgetting that the minority of people live outside of cities. ~a
[2023-07-13 18:46:17] - daniel: "I also would almost never choose one unless for the express purpose of exercise or having fun" i'm totally fine with you doing that, of course, but not everybody has that choice. also, even for those with that choice, it's not always the right choice. tons of people bankrupt themselves making that choice and tons of governments bankrupt themselves setting up a system where there is no other choice. ~a
[2023-07-13 18:44:37] - I think Pauls point to some degree is that voters mostly agree with this sentiment. I'm ok with minorities having their voice hear but if the question is do we subsidize cars or bikes more propotionally I would also vote for the car platform 10 out 10 times. I think this is overall your problem though with the voters / policy makers. -Daniel
[2023-07-13 18:43:25] - Generally speaking I want the time and effort it takes to get from point A to point B to be some combination of fast and easy as possible. If I have to go pick up my kids and it can take an hour round trip or 12 minutes round trip that 48 minutes mean I can sleep in later in the morning and still get my 8 hours of work in. Or not have to use PTO for a lunch out. -Daniel
[2023-07-13 18:41:20] - There are times and situations where bikes would be more efficient that you have pointed out but in my personal life I'm not sure I can think of a single instance where a bike is more time and effort efficient than using my car. -Daniel
[2023-07-13 18:40:12] - Bikes have their place and I'm fine with people having a choice but I also would almost never choose one unless for the express purpose of exercise or having fun. -Daniel
[2023-07-13 18:39:14] - -Daniel
[2023-07-13 18:39:13] - title: I mostly let paul handle the pro car side of the debate but to point out things here. Cars have A/C. Cars can get me from San Antonio to Houston in three hours. Cars can carry my groceries without making it harder for me to get home. I can drive a car even if I'm hungry and physically tired after a a day at the theme park. I can stay at home watching TV until 15 minutes before I need to be somewhere rather than leave hour sooner.
[2023-07-13 18:11:14] - paul: i also don't challenge you to question the ubiquitousness of roads. i challenge you to question car supremacy. ubiquitous roads are totally fine. having them be cars-only, nay, *all* of them being cars *only* has become an issue for anyone who would like to use a non-car for SOME trips. i just want a fucking choice, paul. nothing more! ~a
[2023-07-13 18:08:52] - paul: i never called the reverse dangerous. ~a
[2023-07-13 18:06:19] - a: Sure, but much like you challenge me to question the ubiquitousness of roads, I challenge everybody on why we just accept that it's normal that prices go up ~4-5% a year and why it would be super dangerous to have that ever reverse. I mean, at a high level, inflation is just a very hidden tax on savers. -Paul
[2023-07-13 16:28:30] - paul: actually, i don't think inflation over the past 18 months have been exceptional. using cpi-u seasonally adjusted, it seems like the past 18 months have had 5% inflation? ((303.841/280.887)**(1/1.5)) ~a
[2023-07-13 15:29:27] - a: "what chains (fast food or otherwise) that are gone do you miss?" Ooooh, good question. I am completely drawing a blank, although I feel like there have been plenty. -Paul
[2023-07-13 15:27:56] - a: "i want it to choose less poorly." Yes, we agree. I just also think the history of governments indicates they always more likely to choose poorly and so let's try to NOT have government throwing money at sports stadiums and the cartels with the most lobbying power. -Paul
[2023-07-13 15:27:00] - a: "inflation rates released! are you excited?! 3%? wow, less than the historical average of 4%." I know this is blasphemous, but is it wrong to wish for something more than low rates of inflation and maybe even, gasp, some deflation? Would love to undo some of the price increases from the past 18 months or so. -Paul
[2023-07-13 15:26:17] - paul: this is exactly my point though. it has chosen poorly. you want it to choose neither, and i don't disagree. but more importantly, i want it to choose less poorly. ~a
[2023-07-13 15:25:16] - a: The government chooses so poorly. We subsidize sugar and not kale. Oil more than renewables (maybe not true anymore? I don't know). -Paul
[2023-07-13 15:24:39] - a: "public transit and space for pedestrians are a public good. roads are a public bad" See, this is where we desperately need the ability to add a gif of The Dude saying, "Yeah? Well, you know, that's just like uh, your opinion, man"
Even if I agree, though, that's why the government shouldn't be picking what to subsidize like this. I think you even were getting at it with your earlier statement. -Paul[2023-07-13 14:59:02] - paul: i looked at my last ~36 tweets, and i never got close to retweeting anything that said we should remove car lanes for bike lanes (if you make logical leaps, you can get there, but they seem to be good natured/moderate compared to much of twitter). mostly i just post "car supremacy/drivers/only-transporation is dumb". i do suggest we should redisign cities with fewer car lanes ~36 RTs ago, but that's also not what you said. ~a
[2023-07-13 14:58:48] - https://v.redd.it/8bzzigzj99bb1 please ignore the political titles, i legit love watching this video. it makes me fondly remember the various sim games and i love it when the sim games create a wonderfuly rediculous world. (freeways, simcity, city skylines, satisfactory, etc) ~a
[2023-07-13 14:58:25] - https://i.redd.it/ohh3qf560cbb1.jpg hottest days on earth. ~a
[2023-07-13 14:58:17] - i know this is going to sound like a ridiculous question, but is russia allowed to join nato? asking differently, what is nato? i feel like a lot of countries joining (or wanting to join) aren't near the north-atlantic. is it for non-russia/non-china countries only? nato just seems to be a fun repeat of the runup to WW1 and/or WW2? i say "and/or" because i really don't know any history. ~a
[2023-07-13 14:58:02] - a non-political thread? what chains (fast food or otherwise) that are gone do you miss? quiznos and baja fresh are two fast-food chains that are mostly gone now and i miss them. there's actually a baja fresh near my once a week office, so i don't really "miss" it yet, but i feel its days are numbered. ~a
[2023-07-13 14:57:41] - you can get over the counter birth control now. wow. ~a
[2023-07-13 14:57:30] - inflation rates released! are you excited?! 3%? wow, less than the historical average of 4%. ~a
[2023-07-13 14:48:13] - public transit and space for pedestrians are a public good. roads are a public bad. ~a
[2023-07-13 14:46:52] - paul: "we subsidize sugar, so why not meat and veggies and fruit and everything else?" i agree with your argument. you've decided to keep the subsidies on the . . . palm oil or arsenic or the mustard gas vegetable (i'm so close to some sort of word joke), but decided to remove all subsidies on . . . kale and cancer-treatment fruit. treating car subsidies and public transit subsidies equally is one thing, but this is so much worse. ~a
[2023-07-13 14:35:54] - a: Not necessarily. Two wrongs don't make a right. If something bad is happening in one area, I don't think it makes sense to have another bad thing happen to even things out. That way lies madness and unending government expansion. We subsidize sugar, so why not meat and veggies and fruit and everything else? -Paul
[2023-07-13 14:32:47] - aDaniel: Is there SC2 happening tonight? I have plans to play Hearthstone with Dave at 9, but might be able to log on later (sometime after 10:30?) -Paul
[2023-07-13 14:32:36] - paul: ok, but until we get there (private companies *financing* roads), i feel like i'm fine with at least an even-handed approach. do you disagree that it should be even-handed? ~a
[2023-07-13 14:30:51] - a: And sure, I think we've had enough conversations for you to realize I don't mind extending that to oil subsidies and I'm fine imagining a world where private companies build roads instead of governments. I suspect it would be a far better system. -Paul
[2023-07-13 14:30:21] - paul: "If something needs subsidizing to exist, it seems to indicate to me that, in general, the users don't find the benefits worth the cost and therefore it probably shouldn't exist" why don't you apply this to 286? or franklin farm road? or centriville road? ~a
[2023-07-13 14:29:13] - a: No, I get that most public transit systems are unprofitable. That doesn't make it good, nor do I think that means we can just excuse it and say it shouldn't be designed to be. If something needs subsidizing to exist, it seems to indicate to me that, in general, the users don't find the benefits worth the cost and therefore it probably shouldn't exist. -Paul
[2023-07-11 16:07:15] - paul: for better or worse, we do subsidize airports. obviously less so literally private jets, but even they get butt-tons of subsidized stuff. airports do *generally* profit, but that's usually if you ignore a bunch of costs like initial construction costs. how many privately owned, privately operated commercial service airports are in the united states? one. just one. governments often pay out of the butt to supply air service. ~a
[2023-07-11 15:52:27] - paul: "I don't think we should try to subsidize their lifestyle over the majority" do you think we should subsidize the majority's lifestyle more than the minority (pp)? orders of magnitude more (pp)? ~a
[2023-07-11 15:52:03] - paul: "in theory it's supposed to pay for itself in terms of daily operations" just no. this has never been true, will never be true, and doesn't need to be true. if we're going to subsidize the fuck out of roads, we also need to subsidize the fuck out of sidewalks / metros / busses. if you don't do this, you're going to create a shit system but also it feels like you aren't educated on how *any* worldwide transportation system works? ~a
[2023-07-11 15:17:43] - a: "should we ever care about a minority?" Yes, we should absolutely protect the rights of minorities. But I don't think we should try to subsidize their lifestyle over the majority. -Paul
[2023-07-11 15:17:00] - a: And why do you care about roads and not jets? I mean, they're all just fundamentally different. I asked about profitability because it was supposed to be a proxy for popularity. WMATA gets funding from governments to built out expansions, but in theory it's supposed to pay for itself in terms of daily operations. Isn't that kind of how roads work? We pay for them through gas taxes and whatnot? -Paul
[2023-07-11 15:11:37] - paul: "Is the argument we should change the area I live in to favor a small group of people over the majority?" it depends entirely on the size of the minority . . . and the details of how they're inconvenienced? i like how meta this is getting because i feel like you've stepped on a bigger political statement. "should we ever care about a minority?" yes, sometimes we should. ~a
[2023-07-11 15:09:50] - paul: "They can still do it, right?" not easily, no they can't. and this is literally the crux of the problem. in parts of fairfax county it's patently ridiculous what you make them go through just to make your inefficient drive slightly easier. ~a
[2023-07-11 15:08:29] - paul: "it's kind of a faulty analogy" you want the metro to turn a profit but you don't care if your local sidewalk turns a profit or not. why? bring private jets into this if you want, but i don't see private jets as anywhere near as efficient (or healthy or good for the environment or cheap) as a sidewalk or a metro line. ~a
[2023-07-11 15:08:20] - a: "what do you want them to do exactly?" Walk? Bike? Take public transit? They can still do it, right? I don't get your argument. I live in an area designed around using cars to get around. I think most people who live here prefer that lifestyle. I think most people who live here can afford that lifestyle. Is the argument we should change the area I live in to favor a small group of people over the majority? -Paul
[2023-07-11 15:05:57] - a: "is 286 even profitable?" I get where you're going, but it's kind of a faulty analogy, right? You're not going to tell me bike lanes are profitable, are you? I mean, if the government mandated every mode of transportation be free, I suspect people would choose private jets over the metro. -Paul
[2023-07-11 15:05:45] - paul: and i don't think you replied to "what do you want them to do exactly?" because our eteral arguing past each other doesn't solve it for the people that live in your public-transportation/walking/cycling/scootering desert. ~a
[2023-07-11 15:04:20] - a: So sure, ride your bike to Costco, but I don't want to, and think it would be terrible. -Paul
[2023-07-11 15:04:04] - a: "do you acknowledge it's where the majority of americans live?" Sure? But this goes back to our eternal arguing past each other. I'm totally fine if somebody wants to develop cyclist utopia. Go for it! I'm not against it. I just don't think it's a lifestyle that would work for me, and I don't think I would want to live in an area that prioritizes bikes and pedestrians over cars. -Paul
[2023-07-10 20:29:56] - paul: "Is WMATA even profitable" is 286 even profitable? is franklin farm road even profitable? is centriville road even profitable? link ~a
[2023-07-10 19:14:38] - tuesday or thursday, please. thanks! (and i'll probably play if it's tonight, but like, only a few games) ~a
[2023-07-10 19:08:07] - a: sc2 night? -Daniel
[2023-07-10 18:01:20] - paul: i don't know if i want to use fairfax county as the place, because it feels too specific to you. why not use herndon? maybe just near west ox road?
even in fairfax county, though, there are people who can't drive: they are too young, or too old, or too poor, or too disabled. what do you want them to do exactly? envelope-math says 25%-35% of americans can't drive? ~a[2023-07-10 17:54:23] - paul: do you acknowledge it's where the majority of americans live? ~a
[2023-07-10 17:53:07] - a: I don't think there is a bunch of people who wish we had more bike paths so they can bike to Costco or more busses running to the swimming pool or whatever. -Paul
[2023-07-10 17:52:41] - a: Okay, so we're definitely skipping back and forth here. I'm not talking about cities. I hate cities. I don't understand why anybody would ever want to live there (but I acknowledge lots of people do). I'm talking about the suburbs of Fairfax County, where I live. I think most people here get around using cars. I think most people use cars because they find it the best option. -Paul
[2023-07-10 17:49:19] - paul: i don't think it works all the time. "why aren't more people taking busses / metro / biking / etc" um, they are. where a majority of americans live, they are. you're in the minority here i think. so maybe that just doesn't work for you, i get it. ~a
[2023-07-10 17:49:12] - a: DC is ten times worse. I can't count the number of times lanes would randomly disappear because apparently they were parking lots or cars would be randomly stopped in a lane blocking anybody from passing or intersections would be so backed up that entire cycles of lights would go and you couldn't go through unless you wanted to blatantly block the intersection for others. -Paul
[2023-07-10 17:47:50] - a: "drop in a few bus lanes and they'll get used. efficiently. by people that used to be in cars" And this is where we disagree. I'm not sure I buy the "if you build it, they will ride" argument. Maybe it works sometimes. I don't think it works all the time. If driving is so horrible and inefficient, then why aren't more people taking busses / metro / biking / etc? -Paul
[2023-07-10 17:46:57] - paul: but it sounds like driving is a hassle in fairfax county too. ~a
[2023-07-10 17:46:16] - a: wmata had a huge increase over the pandemic depressed numbers, right? Is WMATA even profitable? I got conflicting info. Either way, DC is a bit of a different beast than Fairfax County. Even I have to admit that there are times I would prefer taking public transit in DC because driving is such a hassle. -Paul
[2023-07-10 17:43:06] - a: I'm not sure I understand your link. I don't see DC (or any US city?) on there. -Paul
[2023-07-10 17:02:29] - paul: "I routinely get stuck in bumper to bumper traffic or have trouble finding parking spots in Costco" sorry to keep jumping topics but this argument seems so backwards. you literally are in the least efficient form of travel and are complaining about it's lack of efficiency. drop in a few bus lanes and they'll get used. efficiently. by people that used to be in cars. it depends on details of course: it will sometimes fail. ~a
[2023-07-10 17:00:06] - paul: i did listen to the freakonomics over the weekend. what did you think? ~a
[2023-07-10 16:58:41] - paul: just because you can't see us doesn't mean we aren't there. ~a
[2023-07-10 16:58:33] - paul: cabi and public transit in dc are at all time high. we overtook chicago & boston from a subway perspective. the numbers are staggering: 66% (67% in another source) increase from last year on wmata. ~a
[2023-07-10 16:58:05] - paul: you'll never see us, because we're so efficient, but we're there. link. ~a
[2023-07-10 16:55:28] - It reminds me of the people saying that there is all this pent up demand for high speed rail or expanded metro or bus service.... but that demand never seems to materialize... -paul
[2023-07-10 16:53:29] - a: And outside of you, I can't recall anybody ever bemoaning to me that there aren't enough bike trails in our area so they can bike to Costco and the grocery store and the pool. On the flip side, I routinely get stuck in bumper to bumper traffic or have trouble finding parking spots in Costco. -Paul
[2023-07-10 16:51:52] - a: And I understand that there might be a large untapped group of people clamoring to bike to Costco but there just isn't the infrastructure, but I don't see a lot of evidence of that. Even when I used to walk the W&OD trail during my lunch break, I never really saw it being anything close to congested. Same thing with the trails running parallel to 286. Bike racks aren't completely filled up at all locations. -Paul
[2023-07-10 16:48:56] - paul: well it sounds like we're on the same page then. sorta. yes, i agree there will be a devil in the details. but, we both agree people should be allowed to NOT drive for *some* trips. especially if they don't have a choice. i try, and sometimes fail, to not go beyond that very moderate viewpoint. you are literally the only person that follows me on twitter (and actually uses twitter), so some of that might just be me trolling. ~a
[2023-07-10 16:45:02] - a: Yeah, sure, I love the idea of giving people the freedom to choose. I just feel like in a world of limited resources, giving one group a choice usually leads to limiting the other group. A lot of the things I see you retweeting on twitter involve removing lanes for cars and replacing them with bike lanes. And I think you would agree that oftentimes steps to make driving more convenient makes things more difficult for cyclists. -Paul
[2023-07-10 16:43:34] - link ~a
[2023-07-10 16:40:01] - mig: ok. i guess i always planned to do what i want. but, we subsidize the fuck out of one form of transportation with public money, so i'm not sure we're in the "do what you want man" territory. ~a
[2023-07-10 16:35:30] - a: I’m sure paul and I are on the “do what you want man” side of things. Bike to costco if you want. There’s just a “cars bad, should be banned” vibe to a lot of these pro bike sentiments and thats primarily what I push back on. - mig
[2023-07-10 15:24:16] - paul: do you disagree with that? do you disagree with giving people the choice to *not* drive for *some* trips? especially for those people (too young, too old, too disabled, too poor) who literally don't have a choice? with your analogy, some people literally are unable to use a washing machine for some articles of clothing. you wouldn't prevent them from hand-washing for a few articles of clothing, right? ~a
[2023-07-09 16:24:02] - paul: "to me, the benefits of the car/washing machine outweigh the benefits of cycling/hand washing" yeah to me too! sometimes. but giving people the choice to make the better (safer, healthier, cheaper, more environmentally friendly, more fun) choice of taking public transportation/walking/biking/etc for *those trips* that are best seems only logical. giving people the CHOICE to not drive for SOME trips, seems like the best system. ~a
[2023-07-07 19:05:40] - a: https://freakonomics.com/podcast/why-is-the-u-s-so-good-at-killing-pedestrians/ I listened to this today and thought you might like it. -Paul
[2023-07-07 19:05:25] - a: Totally get the point about tiring, but so much of our technological progress is geared around reducing the amount of labor we have to do and to save time. -Paul
[2023-07-07 19:03:05] - a: "i feel like you forgot all of the reasons/efficiencies except cost?" Sure. I just listed a handful. The important thing is that, to me, the benefits of the car/washing machine outweigh the benefits of cycling/hand washing. -Paul
[2023-07-06 23:32:25] - paul: less tiring is . . . interesting. it's something i do consider often, but i feel like i shouldn't? for most of america, less tiring is actually a bad thing. 3/4ths (75%!) of america are overweight or obese and a 1% increase in mass transit ridership is associated with a %0.5 lower obesity rate. link ~a
[2023-07-06 17:42:10] - paul: "faster" you even forgot to qualify this one. it's only faster if you're in the minority of people that don't live in cities. ~a
[2023-07-06 17:33:38] - paul: "costs more $$...I mean, I could, but why?" i feel like you forgot all of the reasons/efficiencies except cost? ~a
[2023-07-06 17:21:11] - a: So to me, your suggestion of using a cargo bike instead of a car to go to Costco sounds very similar to a suggestion to hand wash my clothes instead of using a washing machine. I mean, I could, but why? -Paul
[2023-07-06 17:19:59] - a: Do people do the washing machine thing? Not that I know of, but I think it's a pretty direct analogy. Humanity has developed a machine (washing machine, car) which takes a formerly labor intensive task (washing clothes, transportation) and makes it better in most aspects (faster, less tiring) but not quite as good in others (costs more $$). -Paul
[2023-07-06 17:16:52] - a: "you're far more likely to die driving than you are while riding a bike" I legit wasn't sure what the statistics were. I knew driving is fairly dangerous, but I thought cycling was too. Google results were inconclusive, with some results claiming cycling was more dangerous and others suggesting driving was. -Paul
[2023-07-06 16:28:48] - paul: "less efficient". yes, i see now you're referring to it just taking longer, sorry. i agree biking takes longer, and sometimes much longer, if you don't live in a city or a dense suburb. 15 minute cities here we come?! (otherwise obviously i think that it's worth the extra time because of all the dozens of other efficiencies) ~a
[2023-07-06 16:19:44] - paul: "less efficient". how are you defining this? i feel like when you take a larger view, a view from a society standpoint, public transit and pedestrians blow cars away. cars are the least efficient by far. and that it isn't even close. if you take a personal finances view or health view or environmental view, it seems pretty similar: cars are far less efficient. in pretty every measure cars get blown away. ~a
[2023-07-06 16:06:19] - paul: "if you want a far less efficient, probably more dangerous method that will take longer" see my last comment. it's not probably more dangerous. "encouraging people to hand wash their clothes instead of using a washing machine" do people do this? i would not do this. i'm not sure i know about this argument but it definitely doesn't work as an analogy. maybe reversing it would work? ~a
[2023-07-06 16:04:52] - paul: "it's hard to square those two things" ok, you are right. it is hard to square those things. but, i. will. do it. some places (pentagon city) it's getting much better. the other places (like where you live) are terrible. BUT, and here's the kicker, you're far more likely to die driving than you are while riding a bike. i'll propose improvements to safety for pedestrians and public transit, but at least they aren't in a car! ~a
[2023-07-06 15:32:54] - a: "far less efficient" I already know you're going to take offense to this, so I want to clarify: I was mostly thinking about the time it takes, but then I later explicitly stated that it takes longer, so this first statement is probably nonsensical in that respect. -Paul
[2023-07-06 15:32:02] - a: Like, sure, if you want a far less efficient, probably more dangerous method that will take longer... go for it! But I just don't see how this is that different from encouraging people to hand wash their clothes instead of using a washing machine, or something like that. It seems like it would be an odd decision for like >90% of people. -Paul
[2023-07-06 15:30:10] - a: "do you disagree with that?" Uh.... I guess it's hard to disagree that this could work for some people, but I do think you're overrating how well it will work for most people. You talk so much about how dangerous it is for pedestrians and cyclists and how we don't have good safe infrastructure set up.... but also talk about how more people should take bicycle rides to costco and I feel like it's hard to square those two things. -Paul
[2023-07-06 15:16:18] - paul: "it feels uncomfortable to not respond" please please feel super free to respond. and yeah, they're targeted at you, i guess? but the tired old "this won't work for me" is tired. i think it will work for many who aren't you. especially if it's better for humans and we prioritize the option. can't you be more like "this will work for so many people and it is positive that the option exists"? do you disagree with that? ~a
[2023-07-06 15:04:27] - a: "we always see the need to point out this would never work for us, for some reason?" I'm not sure I understand what you are saying? Are you saying I don't need to bring up every time how it won't work for me? That's fair, but it feels uncomfortable to not respond to posts like that when they feel targeted at me.
-Paul[2023-07-05 19:51:45] - Paul: yeah i get they aren't the same situation. I just think in the general populace's eye's if the gov can make helping business's a priority and spend money on it why not making helping more individual people a priority. I don't think its a totally equal thing just in my head I think a thing that has been building since 08 (maybe before but possible I didn't pay attention) with the to big to fail stuff. -Daniel
[2023-07-05 17:24:42] - paul: biking is the best way to get to the pentagon city costco because it's more fun, costs less, is better for your body, is better for the environment, works for people who can't afford a car or can't drive, and if the weather is great it's really nice for your mental health. i'm sure it won't work for you or miguel though. ~a
[2023-07-05 17:16:43] - paul: "hundreds of pounds of stuff" 200lbs literally pictured. ~a
[2023-07-05 17:14:51] - paul/mig: it sounds like all these people love to go to costco without their minivan/truck/suv. we always see the need to point out this would never work for us, for some reason? ~a
[2023-07-05 14:47:43] - mig: Oof, yeah. I could maybe see using a cargo bike for regular grocery store runs, but Costco? That would be brutal. Not only is that a much longer trip, but we routinely fill up the trunk of our minivan and I think we've probably bought hundreds of pounds of stuff on more than one occasion. -Paul
[2023-07-05 14:45:48] - Daniel: So I guess if the government made being an engineer illegal, then maybe having student loan forgiveness for engineering majors might be similar to PPP loans... -Paul
[2023-07-05 14:45:00] - Daniel: I don't really get the comparison to PPP loans. I'll admit I don't fully understand the program, but I was under the impression that the method for forgiveness was baked into the program from the very beginning and thus it was more of a handout from the very start. Also, it was kind of a handout for forcibly locking down the whole economy. -Paul
[2023-07-05 04:13:58] - mig: mediocre. -title
[2023-07-04 23:37:20] - https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/04/judge-limits-biden-administration-contact-with-social-media-firms-00104656 seems like a BFD. - mig
[2023-07-04 17:22:12] - title: taking my usual shopping haul by bike? hard no. -mig
[2023-07-03 21:32:35] - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/biggest-fraud-generation-looting-covid-relief-program-known-ppp-n1279664 PPP was kind of a disaster though. - mig
[2023-07-03 21:26:32] - Paul: I don't think there is a reason like fraud or anything involved. Just a movement that a large swath of the middle class has a chunk of debt that is student loans and that if we are forgiving businesses loans for amounts of money why not people too? I don't think there is a deeper justification. Just that its something that could be done and that enough people like it as a concept that it might happen. -Daniel
[2023-07-03 20:50:00] - paul:probably - mig
[2023-07-03 19:53:59] - And I get that there obviously can be exceptions, right? Like if there was some fraud or the government screwed you over by locking down the economy for a few years or whatever. But I have yet to really hear any reason like that provided. All the arguments seem to be, "Oh, well, did you take a PPP loan? Or why are you trying to hurt these poor indebted people? It's not like it hurts you". -Paul
[2023-07-03 19:51:10] - Daniel: I think what (genuinely) baffles me is that the concept of "if you borrow money from somebody, you should pay it back" felt like it was one of those generally agreed upon aspects of modern life. Right up there with "don't kick kittens" or "don't push grandmas in wheelchairs off cliffs". No matter what political differences people might have, reasonable people should be able to at least agree on that. -Paul
[2023-07-03 19:48:19] - mig: I don't want to assume, but would it be similar takes to what Andrew and I might have? -Paul
[2023-07-03 19:27:52] - daniel: i'm out this week, thanks! ~a
[2023-07-03 18:47:04] - a: thoughts on sc2 day? -Daniel
[2023-07-03 18:46:57] - "F those kids with student loan debt" - I'd agree thats a bad take but I imagine for a lot of people that is how it feels. I do think if you don't have to make your payment for like a year or something and then its reinstated I'd probably feel that loss of the money in my monthly budget. -Daniel
[2023-07-03 17:57:39] - paul: maybe. -mig
[2023-07-03 15:44:47] - a: Yeah, no problem. I totally understand. I hated it for a bit when we first started, and thinking on your feet can be super hard. -Paul
[2023-07-03 14:47:21] - Not, me sorry.
I don't think I like being recorded. I always step on my words. ~a[2023-07-03 13:56:38] - Anybody her feel strongly about recent SCOTUS decisions (303 Creative LLC v. Elenis, Biden v. Nebraska, Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard) and want to discuss on the Rampant Discourse podcast?
-Paul[2023-07-01 21:20:32] - It feels like a willful misinterpretation of events from somebody who knows better. -Paul
[2023-07-01 21:19:26] - So why throw out that kind of tweet which I'm sure is going to convince the majority of those 30k likes that SCOTUS was just like "F those kids with student loan debt"? -Paul
[2023-07-01 21:18:08] - And beyond all of this, I think Chris is a smart guy. He should understand that this was about whether or not the executive branch can unilaterally forgive $400 billion in loans and not some evil conspiracy to make people poorer. -Paul
[2023-07-01 21:11:34] - And then when the big boss man gets in a month later or whatever, he says, "No, you can't do that". -Paul
[2023-07-01 21:11:15] - If we wanted to use that bank analogy, the manager says he can wipe out your debts, and half the bank employees start going, "whoa, I don't think you can do that, we need to check with the big boss man". -Paul
[2023-07-01 21:10:36] - aDaniel: Timeline is relevant, but so is the context. As soon as it happened people were predicting it was on shaky legal ground, could end up at SCOTUS, and likely wouldn't hold up. -Paul
[2023-07-01 21:08:16] - a: "you didn't answer this guy" I tried to with my thoughts later on. I guess it depends on the type of college or university? Public ones shouldn't be allowed to discriminate based on race, private ones can? -Paul
[2023-07-01 21:03:39] - aDaniel: Was the debt ever wiped out, though? Isn't it more accurate to say a bank manager said he could wipe it away, then the president said, "He doesn't have the authority to do that"? -Paul
[2023-07-01 05:26:37] - mig: i'm not sure chris, paul, daniel, or i were tying the finances of the students to whether biden was allowed to do what he did. i agree, it's irrelevant, but i think you were the one that brought it up. ~a
[2023-07-01 04:18:20] - I think the rationale isn't great for the forgiveness but I don't think its completely off the wall either. But if like Congressional R's had sued that would have made more sense to me than states. -Daniel
[2023-07-01 04:17:36] - mig: I think the question of standing is relevant / fair. I'm not sure Missouri is really relevant to federal gov's relationship to federal loan borrowers. -Daniel
[2023-07-01 01:22:44] - Like it seems like the criticism of scotus is completely sidestepping the merits of the majority opinion just relying on emotionally loaded griping. - mig
[2023-07-01 01:11:09] - This is 100% on the Biden admin. This was making policy in bad faith. - mig
[2023-07-01 01:10:12] - The Biden admin was certainly told that course of action would be on legally dubious grounds, and they went ahead and did it anyways, knowing full well scotus would strike it down. - mig
[2023-07-01 01:08:36] - Does the “what about the poor impoverished students?” bear any relevance to whether the Biden admin had the constitutional authority to unilaterally cancel student debt? - mig
[2023-06-30 21:34:08] - daniel: i agree the timeline is relevant. . . . what both sides agreed to, is relevant too. i feel like the executive part of the government made a pretty solid agreement that they were forgiving certain loans, for better or worse. ~a
[2023-06-30 21:32:07] - paul: "are you part of the 66% or the 34%?" you didn't answer this guy. i feel like you're part of the 34% which is against the supreme court's take. is that right? i think maybe you also agree with daniel, but maybe not for the same reasons? let me know if i misunderstood you. ~a
[2023-06-30 20:49:16] - I think the time element is the main part. If I give you money and one minute later take it away its not a big a deal as if I give you 250 bucks a month for a year then start to collect that 250 again. -Daniel
[2023-06-30 20:32:25] - i agree with daniel's take. it's not cut and dry either way. if someone gives you money then takes it back, even if they shouldn't have given it to you in the first place, you'd have an unclear characterization of what they've done exactly. ~a
[2023-06-30 20:14:49] - Paul: I mean if a bank manager tells you your credit card bill is forgiven and set to 0 and then several months later the bank president reinstates your bill I don't think its a bad characterization to say the president made you poorer. Maybe its a long term net no change but its not like here today gone tomorrow situation either. -Daniel
[2023-06-30 19:10:36] - paul: political debate is just so much easier when you define your opponents as subhuman monsters. - mig
[2023-06-30 18:06:27] - https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1674789682360782851 I can understand having legitimate grievances with the Supreme Court decision around student loan forgiveness, but this seems like such a disingenuous interpretation of events. SCOTUS didn't just decide some people were $10,000 poorer. If somebody tells you that you no longer have to pay your CC bill and I say, "actually, yes you do", I didn't make you poorer... -Paul
[2023-06-30 04:04:32] - https://colemanhughes.substack.com/p/10-notes-on-the-end-of-affirmative I thought this was a good post on affirmative action with some good stats and perspectives. I do think the points get a little weaker as it goes on, though, so if the article seems too long, start at the top.
-Paul[2023-06-30 03:47:55] - Daniel: Yeah, as I understand it (which is very little, because I am obviously not a doctor), the consideration of downsides to intervention can sometimes be hard to gauge since complications like infections or other things are hard to predict. Good luck with whatever path you choose. Do your research!
-Paul[2023-06-30 01:38:10] - Paul: Both of mine are the specialist. I think in my particular case there is maybe science that lends towards surgery but its pretty murky and there isn't great data and there are risks with surgery which leads other doctors to be like well maybe and there isn't a great concensus as they kind of try different approaches over time and see how things go. -Daniel
[2023-06-30 00:47:33] - Daniel: Not sure if that helps at all. Good luck! -Paul
[2023-06-30 00:47:21] - Daniel: Because the general surgeon only did like a dozen surgeries of that type a year whereas a specialist might do hundreds and be more familiar with edge cases or potential pitfalls. -Paul
[2023-06-30 00:45:23] - Daniel: I remember seeing something on twitter (take it with a grain of salt, obviously) talking about the difference between a general surgeon and a specialist and how important it can be. -Paul
[2023-06-30 00:44:05] - And the science can change or even be unclear, especially with medicine and whatnot. It's not as obvious as e=mc2. -Paul
[2023-06-30 00:42:18] - Daniel: Yeah, that sucks. I definitely have gotten a little less trusting of the infallibility of doctors as I've gotten older. Some is from personal experience, but also a realization that doctors are human... -Paul
[2023-06-30 00:40:21] - a: When I do searches of whether school closures helped prevent COVID spread, a majority of results say they did, but some results said they didn't. And even the ones who said it did implied it was hard to tell for sure. -Paul
[2023-06-30 00:34:19] - a: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/national-test-scores-math-reading-pandemic.html I think the evidence is pretty clear by now that not only was there harm, but it was a LOT of harm. -Paul
[2023-06-30 00:34:03] - a: Admittedly, school closures are more complicated since it involves showing that there was harm from them AND the benefit didn't outweigh the harm. -Paul
[2023-06-30 00:31:53] - a: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/28/trump-russia-investigation-mueller-liberal-media-rachel-maddow You might be right that nobody outright said that Trump was a Russian plant, but there were certainly a lot of people in media "just asking questions" -Paul
[2023-06-30 00:28:25] - a: The media denounced it as racist and a conspiracy theory. Big tech suppressed discussion of it. Scientists criticized discussion of it. -Paul
[2023-06-30 00:26:13] - a: Re: Experts and the lab leak theory. I encourage you to read the two paragraphs starting with "Said cops" https://reason.com/2023/06/21/lab-leak-theory-confirmed-ben-hu-wuhan-china-covid/ -Paul
[2023-06-29 21:02:16] - daniel: third opinion? i know these opinions probably aren't cheap, but the risk is probably high to either course. ~a
[2023-06-29 19:51:51] - On a more personal version - I got a second opinion from a surgeon recently on my stomach issues and he was like nah you don't need surgery. So now I have two surgeons giving me directly opposing advice and I'm trying to do research to figure out what way to go. So I definitely have sympathy for the concept of the medical professionals just saying "trust me" being insuffcient. -Daniel
[2023-06-29 19:50:23] - But also - Trump is the one who was talking about injecting bleach so in that case one should definitely not just trust him and definitely do your own research to determine if thats a good plan. -Daniel
[2023-06-29 19:49:33] - "take my word for it" but "I implore you to do your own research" - This is tricky cause I think it depends a lot on the context of things. I feel like Covid showed that people (as a broad term) don't always have a full grasp of the scientific method and can translate from "this medicine might have some beneficial effects on X" to "The answer to covid is this medicine" and that those aren't the same statement. -Daniel
[2023-06-29 19:24:05] - paul: "there is no evidence of X" isn't just CYA it's how scientists should think about everything. ~a
[2023-06-29 19:00:27] - paul: i'm not sure "experts" were saying it for sure wasn't a lab leak (fauci probably said he didn't *THINK* it was a lab leak), no expert was saying trump was a russian plant (*and* the media wasn't literally saying anything close to that), depends on what vaccine you're talking about and what the experts were saying exactly. even if you were right about school closures i have no CLUE how we could know for sure either way. ~a
[2023-06-29 18:56:29] - paul: you've lumped a lot of ideas together, i don't think the "experts" were so horribly wrong on even half of those. ~a
[2023-06-29 18:53:39] - a: I think that's probably especially going to be the case in this environment, on the back of a time when the experts were so horribly wrong about things like the lab leak theory, Hunter Biden's laptop, Trump being a Russian plant, vaccines, school closures, etc. -Paul
[2023-06-29 18:53:02] - a: I'm not saying it will be easy, but I think refusing to debate AND trying to get people kicked off of major tech platforms not only doesn't help change minds, I think it tends to push more people towards that censored view. -Paul
[2023-06-29 18:17:57] - paul: "maybe you change some of the audience's mind" i think changing some of the audience's mind won't work like you want it to if the other debater is not debating fairly. (but, overall i agree with you: when it comes to debates for government office, i'm all for them) ~a
[2023-06-29 17:17:41] - a: And it's also one thing if this is some random 1v1 conversation that nobody else sees, or a debate broadcast to thousands or millions. Yeah, maybe you'll never change their mind, but maybe you change some of the audience's mind. -Paul
[2023-06-29 17:16:47] - a: "debating people who refuse to debate fairly is much worse than a waste of time" Sure, that makes some sense regarding people on the internet (random aside, I find that more prevalent with people on the left than the right), but I'm not sure that's the case here. If you listen to him discuss vaccines, he's not short or quippy (although he is probably wrong). He goes deep into details. Maybe even too deep. -Paul
[2023-06-29 17:11:51] - a: It reminds me of the baker and the gay wedding cake. -Paul
[2023-06-29 17:11:41] - a: I don't want universities to be using race as a consideration for admissions. But I also don't want to ban them from doing it if they're hellbent on it. -Paul
[2023-06-29 17:10:30] - a: Yeah, I agree that the double negative confuses things. I'm generally against discriminating against people based on race, so at a high level I think this is a step in the right direction. At the same time, I do think private entities should be able to do what they want and I can see a scenario where some university might prefer having exclusively or mainly black students (even if I think it's not a good idea). -Paul
[2023-06-29 16:09:42] - paul: "not debating him and censoring him and trying to deplatform people who have views outside of the Overton window is a mistake" although i agree with you ...sorta... part of me is like "debating people who refuse to debate fairly is much worse than a waste of time" sorta like this series ~a
[2023-06-29 16:05:18] - (it's a bit of a double-negative situation too. opposing a ban vs opposing the "use" does confuse me some.) ~a
[2023-06-29 16:04:29] - paul: are you part of the 66% or the 34%? i'm a bit on the fence i think. i mostly believe we'll get to a country where we can ban their use, but i'm not sure we're in that country today. i'd select undecided. ~a
[2023-06-29 14:22:57] - https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1674420572514811911 Surprised to see relatively broad support for not considering race in admissions. -Paul
[2023-06-29 14:11:45] - Also, sounds like SCOTUS has struck down the Harvard admissions process as being unconstitutional. Curious what others here think. I also wonder how this will impact the controversy around TJ admissions. -Paul
[2023-06-29 13:56:18] - And that's why I think this whole idea of not debating him and censoring him and trying to deplatform people who have views outside of the Overton window is a mistake. Which sounds more trustworthy? The person telling you to do your own research? Or the person telling you to just trust him? -Paul
[2023-06-29 13:54:18] - And honestly (see what I did there?), given how poorly the medical establishment and authorities and experts acquitted themselves during COVID (imho), I can understand why people might attach to his vaccine skepticism and why there might be seeds of doubt. It's an appealing message to NOT say: "take my word for it" but "I implore you to do your own research". -Paul
[2023-06-29 13:51:43] - There were some answers (specifically around school choice and big tech censorship and media bias) where he sounded very much like my kind of candidate. He not only seemed to have the right positions, but the right way of thinking about things and the right way of expressing his ideas. He also reminded me a bit of Ron Paul during discussions of foreign policy. -Paul
[2023-06-29 13:50:24] - https://www.honestlypod.com/podcast/episode/2c7c7814/rfk-jr-is-striking-a-nerve-he-explains-why I've been fascinated by the (bafflingly, to me) broad appeal of RFK Jr. I listened to this interview with him (the first time I've heard his presidential pitch) and I kind of get it now. Don't get me wrong, I still think he's crazy and wrong in a lot of ways and am not going to vote for him, but I can see why he appeals to some. -Paul
[2023-06-28 19:28:05] - mig: it's in the link: 44 extra deaths. which is how i knew the 44% was probably wrong. it's a 35% increase if you missed my next message. ***assuming*** a 35% increase = 44 extra deaths is correct, then i think maybe it was 126 deaths per year to 170 deaths per year? (44/.35 = ~126) ~a
[2023-06-28 18:48:54] - a: what are the actual raw numbers? saying “44% increase!” without the actual numbers is a good way to emotional load the issue. - mig
[2023-06-28 15:36:43] - a: Virginia is a big state. But Virginia being up while DC is down is very interesting. Any idea how/where I could drill into the numbers more? I didn't see any good links from the article. -- Xpovos
[2023-06-28 15:31:50] - a: Crazy high for VA (and Arizona), but luckily it sounds like nationwide the numbers are down? -Paul
[2023-06-28 15:24:13] - a: I'm in. I think Andrew sounded interested? Maybe Daniel and Miguel? The entire message board population?
-Paul[2023-06-27 21:26:48] - also, that number (44%) is incorrect. that's what i get for trusting reddit's description. it's 35% i think. ~a
[2023-06-27 21:22:45] - pedestrian deaths are up 44% in virginia. ummm what? that is completely crazy. but also, somehow exactly what i expected: something. needs. to. change. ~a
[2023-06-27 21:20:11] - paul: yessss? i forgot about that sorry. who's potentially participating? (i.e. who do i share the first version of this document with besides you?) ~a
[2023-06-27 20:36:53] - a: You planning that presidential primary draft?
-Paul[2023-06-27 20:36:39] - a: It's been a good start to 2023 so far, although I have noticed a problem with Tim's portfolio that I need to fix. I think I intended to end the competition on January 31st, but our bet can end December 31st if you want. -Paul
[2023-06-27 20:35:30] - a: Re: Betting: I'm sure this is at least half me deluding myself, but I am impressed with some of the sophistication around sports betting. People do stuff akin to investing in terms of diversifying and hedging. Not surprised there might be smart ways to improve your odds. -Paul
[2023-06-27 18:58:32] - paul: i assume we end on december 31st right? your posts on pvtm aren't specific on whether we're using feb1-dec31, or not. ~a
[2023-06-27 18:56:39] - paul: we're reaching the end of h1 and fantasy investing is looking pretty good for you. ~a
[2023-06-27 17:12:25] - betting on sporting events. the beginning of this article is pretty boring, but the ending i liked: he found out that if you place a sporting bet on a betting site RIGHT before the odds of winning changed, you could make a bunch of money on these movements. ~a
[2023-06-27 16:21:08] - you can swim in the anacostia again. i have been closely watching the anacostia river changes over the past 10 years (the river walk, really) and i am impressed. ~a
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