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[2025-03-08 20:52:29] - mig: well that's just your opinion, man. i think if some major concessions are made on both sides a peace deal can be struck. us boots on the ground is obviously a non-starter over the next four years. but, europe has fought in european wars in the past. i don't think european boots on the ground is a non-starter. ~a
[2025-03-08 20:50:13] - paul: "Nobody seems to want to be associated with supporting lockdowns anymore". the key word in that sentence for me is "anymore". of course nobody wants lockdowns anymore: covid is over? even discussing lockdowns in today's covid-is-over world is a bit of cognitive dissonance. we'll collectively discuss lockdowns again if the next covid-sized pandemic hits. until then it's up to scientists to learn and plan. ~a
[2025-03-08 20:45:54] - paul: "then why isn't it showing up in the numbers?" why do you think it isn't showing up in the numbers? ~a
[2025-03-07 20:31:26] - There was hope maybe 2 years ago that maybe Russia would burn out militarily and/or economically that might make it possible for Ukraine to drive Russia out, but those days are long past. - mig
[2025-03-07 20:25:11] - So yes if he’s still taking the stance that russia has to withdraw from their territories, he’s pushing for forever war. - mig
[2025-03-07 20:23:51] - a: at the moment ukraine demanding any territory back is not grounded in reality. There isn’t a deal i see that would get Russia to willingly withdraw and Ukraine lacks the capacity to kick them out, even with the aid we’ve been giving them. The only way he gets any territory back is US boots on the ground, which I think nobody except the Ukrainians are up for. - mig
[2025-03-07 18:25:34] - But I do think it's an interesting point that is raised. Nobody seems to want to be associated with supporting lockdowns anymore. Long term did the anti-lockdown crowd win popular opinion? -Paul
[2025-03-07 18:24:46] - https://reason.com/2025/03/06/jay-bhattacharyas-confirmation-hearing-proves-the-lockdown-skeptics-won/ I'm curious if people here agree with this take. It certainly doesn't feel to me as if the "lockdown skeptics won"... -Paul
[2025-03-07 18:24:02] - a: If money (presumably from the Department of Education) helps, then why isn't it showing up in the numbers? The only number that seems to go up is money spent. -Paul
[2025-03-07 17:27:20] - neither outlet "called my office to ask,". i don't believe you meme. "SWEARING ME IN ON INAUGURATION DAY" jesus christ, does this guy ever allow himself to tell the truth? ~a
[2025-03-07 17:24:50] - paul: there are many ways of resolving a budget shortfall. but, money, is usually a way that can help. strings-attached-money does sometimes suck, but you don't have to take money with strings attached. ~a
[2025-03-07 17:23:15] - mig: i don't think he's been pushing for a forever war, or asking for unreasonable things. it could be with crimea, he's asking for something, so if he gets everything *except* crimea, he can grant that win to the enemy. it seems like negotiating-101 and typical "overton window" behavior. you don't think demanding crimea back is unreasonable, do you? someone takes vermont (same land size) then we demand it back, that is unreasonable? ~a
[2025-03-07 15:13:03] - https://www.cato.org/blog/public-school-spending-theres-chart This is old, and maybe there is an updated one, but for the past few decades we've thrown more and more money at education with nearly unchanged results (it's probably worse now post-COVID). -Paul
[2025-03-07 15:12:28] - a: "some poorer areas might get worse off is where i'd like to focus" I guess I would challenge the assumption that those poorer areas would be worse off. Less funding? Maybe. Worse off? Not sure. -Paul
[2025-03-07 15:06:41] - a: Sorry, my larger point was that he shouldn't have been prickly because... not that he was. There's a pretty big chasm between coming in humble and being prickly, though, and lots of room for interpretation. -Paul
[2025-03-07 14:29:27] - Zelensky up until recenetly has been pushing for a forever war, and that is also not reasonable. - mig
[2025-03-07 14:28:06] - a: The problems with our education system go well beyond simply funding and I think the doe is part of those problems. - mig
[2025-03-07 14:25:06] - a: zelensky has demanded in the past (and i believed he still was pushing for it in the WH meeting). That he wants Russia to get pushed back out of their current holdings in Ukraine, including Crimea, and membership in NATO. As morally right he is about that it’s not reasonable given the realities of the war and the politics. - mig
[2025-03-07 14:06:44] - this is a real website on whitehouse.gov. posted to reddit under "confidently incorrect". (they are, possibly intentionally, confusing transgenic for transgender) ~a
[2025-03-07 14:06:29] - paul: so, some poorer areas might get worse off is where i'd like to focus: is it worth it for you? worth it, so they can get funding. for me, yes, since i don't usually see the doed meddle in state schools to their detriment, it's worth it to me. in general, i like states to handle their own; take care of their own poor schools on their own: but in specific many states choose to let their poor schools wither and that's not great. ~a
[2025-03-07 14:01:05] - paul: your larger point does not hold because i don't think zelensky was prickly. he shouldn't have been, and he wasn't, prickly. he was, if anything, overly reasonable. ~a
[2025-03-07 00:06:29] - a: So, yeah, some poorer areas might get worse off, but the Department of Education also undoubtedly adds another layer (or two) of bureaucracy and provides a lever for the Federal Government to meddle in state schools (like with women's sports). -Paul
[2025-03-07 00:05:12] - a: "without doed, poor areas of poor states won't have public (or otherwise) education" The numbers I have seen indicate that an average of 10% of school system funding comes from the Federal Government (up to maybe 20% for poor areas). -Paul
[2025-03-07 00:00:46] - a: I can't recall others (or find them after a quick check), but it was a sentiment I saw a few times on my X feed that day. -Paul
[2025-03-06 23:55:54] - a: "who is this specifically referring to?" Gosh, I don't know if I can remember them all. One is Konstantin Kisin: https://x.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1895610683103781075 -Paul
[2025-03-06 23:53:30] - a: "i think we all recognize that donald trump's interests are often the polar opposite from american interest." Agreed, but with the caveat that it's often unclear what exactly are American interests. -Paul
[2025-03-06 23:52:38] - a: "implies you don't get things in return" That's fair. I was more thinking of our arrangement prior and not that he was here to negotiate those mineral rights. I still think my larger point holds. -Paul
[2025-03-06 17:26:23] - (picking yourself up by your bootstraps is impossible if you are uneducated) ~a
[2025-03-06 17:25:13] - paul: without doed, poor areas of poor states won't have public (or otherwise) education. public schools would not be able to have a functioning budget. children would get "left behind". this is not in our best interests. and, imo, this is bipartisan: republicans should not want an uneducated citizenry either. ~a
[2025-03-06 17:16:18] - paul: "People whose opinion I respect" who is this specifically referring to? who stated these things? i'm curious, more than anything, where paul gets this news. ~a
[2025-03-06 17:14:35] - paul: i think we all recognize that donald trump's interests are often the polar opposite from american interest. agreed? ~a
[2025-03-06 17:13:12] - paul: americans get rare earth minerals, and we get a more stable region (and a less powerful russia?): something that is very much in our interest. ~a
[2025-03-06 17:11:58] - paul: "given he is effectively asking for charity" although i agree with your sentiment (zelensky should NOT be prickly in this situation), charity "effectively" implies you don't get things in return. this is a 2-for-2 deal: the ukranians get money for their rare earth minerals, and the ukrainians get weapons, (and, imo, ukranians get american-mineral-interests-in-ukraine which will be a deterrent from distant future attacks). ~a
[2025-03-06 16:49:23] - a: It really is a great example of the downside to something like the Department of Education and I hope at least some liberals realized it. It's a gateway for allowing the federal government to control what should be state controlled (public education). -Paul
[2025-03-06 16:48:25] - a: It's not the same as your DEI / DC law, but I was just thinking about how the Trump admin effectively used the Department of Education to force schools to not allow transgender athletes in women's sports. -Paul
[2025-03-06 16:46:07] - https://www.thefp.com/p/a-20-billion-slush-fund-nonprofits I want to be cautious to not give too much credence to early reports on something as fast moving as DOGE, but if even half of this is true it really does look pretty bad. -Paul
[2025-03-06 16:44:59] - mig: Yeah, I think it can both be that Trump / Vance were confrontational AND that Zelensky should've been a bit less prickly given he is effectively asking for charity. Reminder that I haven't seen any of the video, though! -Paul
[2025-03-04 22:38:40] - a: DC isn’t a state. If that law passes, it’s not going to have much of a constitutional leg to stand on. — Xpovos
[2025-03-04 19:15:10] - a: zelensky just went in less than 24 hours from “ end of war is very, very far away“ to “ok we’ll come to the table for peace now.” - mig
[2025-03-04 18:24:28] - tenth amendment anyone? ~a
[2025-03-04 18:15:12] - mig: what reversal? how is this a reversal? ~a
[2025-03-04 17:02:56] - https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1896948147085049916 thats quite the reversal. - mig
[2025-03-04 14:34:04] - paul: whether trump/vance were an ass was beside the point. He needs US support to keep his country from going under. There’s no reason to try and poke the bear. - mig
[2025-03-04 14:28:35] - a: what do you think zelensky was trying to accomplish? - mig
[2025-03-04 14:27:32] - https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-starmer-trump-b025877c40ffe0ddf2a92adad1715231 this doesn’t sound like someone interested in peace and makes me further think he didn’t come to the WH in friday in good faith. - mig
[2025-03-04 05:42:09] - a: I think you could be right about Twitter / X. I don't know if I necessarily agree with your evaluation that Musk sucks at his job (presumably as owner of Twitter), but I do think his ownership actively drives lots of people away and it seems likely an open source or decentralized thing could replace it. -Paul
[2025-03-04 05:40:39] - a: I suspect a lot depends on your opinion of the various parties going in. If you view Zelynsky as a guy who should be humbly coming to us to ask for charity.... you probably didn't see him as sufficiently passive. If you see him as a hero and Trump as a lying jackass.... you probably appreciate him not being submissive. -Paul
[2025-03-04 05:38:47] - a: "paul, do you agree with this assessment of the meeting?" I somehow managed to avoid ALL video of the meeting. I just honestly can't stand listening to Trump talk. I will say this: People whose opinion I respect originally said Trump and Vance were WAY out of line when they watched edited snippets, but then they later went back to watch the whole (50 minute?) video and said they changed their mind some. -Paul
[2025-03-03 17:11:11] - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna54592 seems relevant. - mig
[2025-03-03 17:08:18] - I’m going with the person trying in public trying to publicly litigate for more demands when he was supposed to be there to sign a deal that was understood to be agreed upon to me is very antagonistic. - mig
[2025-03-03 17:02:41] - a: That’s because he was. He didn’t have to make that quip about diplomacy that set Vance and Trump off. He didn’t have to keep the shouting match going on. Biting the hand that’s feeding you even if you don’t like that hand seems unwise if the lives of your countrymen are on the line. - mig
[2025-03-03 16:22:48] - "being openly antagonist" i noticed some openly antagonistic behavior. but it's surprising to me that you said that it was zelynsky that was being openly antagonistic. paul, do you agree with this assessment of the meeting? ~a
[2025-03-03 16:22:22] - paul: "it's not like a lot of these offer significantly different functionality that would cause a casual user to abandon an established social network for a smaller social network" it's exactly why i made my bet: i don't think twitter will be "on top" for long. musk is just too terrible at his job to keep that marketplace going. ~a
[2025-03-03 16:20:39] - paul: i'm not sure how monthly active users is assessed, but i hope that it is done with an independent audit, so it can be done in an unbiased way. i assume since many of these companies are public, fudging these numbers is probably illegal. ~a
[2025-03-03 14:22:54] - can someone explain to me what Zelynsky was hoping to accomplish being openly antagonist in that meeting with Trump? I get its stunning and brave to pick a fight with the Bad Orange Man, but whats the end game here for him? - mig
[2025-03-01 13:06:40] - a: As near as I can tell, it's not like a lot of these offer significantly different functionality that would cause a casual user to abandon an established social network for a smaller social network. -Paul
[2025-03-01 13:05:54] - a: I do think that sometimes bsky has gotten (unfairly?) lumped in with things like threads and Mastodon as largely protest apps against Musk. At the same time, isn't a significant aspect of their popularity the fact that it isn't Twitter / X and owned by Musk? -Paul
[2025-03-01 13:04:26] - a: "i don't think that's what most of the bsky users have done" This one is more interesting to me. I am not on bsky. I was interested when Dorsey was more involved but got less so over time for various reasons. -Paul
[2025-03-01 13:03:27] - a: "i don't think that is what i have done" I didn't mean to imply I thought you had done the same. "but it's not an indictment of bsky" I.... mostly agree. -Paul
[2025-03-01 13:02:28] - a: Which is why I asked you about Nostr awhile ago.
-Paul[2025-03-01 13:02:10] - a: Does X share monthly active users? Do we trust those numbers? I don't know if I want to take that bet anyway. It's hard for me to bet against the idea of some kind of technological disruption, especially since something like X seems made for decentralization. -Paul
[2025-03-01 13:00:07] - a: "i think i liked it back when we got a few messages going per day instead of a giant dump every ~5 days" Sorry. I know it's my fault. I'm not consistently in front of a computer for ~8 hours a weekday like I used to be so it's hard to find the time to consistently check. -Paul
[2025-02-28 19:43:51] - paul: i agree what scotusblog did was dumb. i don't think that is what i have done: i don't think that's what most of the bsky users have done. yes, what scotusblog did was dumb, and i'm sure plenty of others did the same: but it's not an indictment of bsky. ~a
[2025-02-28 19:39:48] - paul: "don't we already have a hard enough time figuring out now if Twitter / X is dying or thriving now let alone if it's being supplanted by a replacement". it is why i was specific. "monthly active users" is a specific metric used by the industry? (i think i said "subscribers" oops, i think "subscribers" is used by netflix and the like). ~a
[2025-02-28 19:36:10] - paul: "I'm not sure I know what you mean by this" i think i liked it back when we got a few messages going per day instead of a giant dump every ~5 days. ~a
[2025-02-28 17:23:01] - a: Did I really have a principled stand that I took in leaving? Or was it just to make a point that I didn't like something and wanted people to know about it? -Paul
[2025-02-28 17:22:21] - a: I guess I see it as performative because if I walked into McDonalds, loudly announced that I was never coming back because they are using seed oils instead of beef tallow, and then came back years later after nothing had changed.... -Paul
[2025-02-28 17:20:44] - "bluesky and mastodon are not protest apps" Was bluesky the place where a bunch of journalists fled and managed to get a bunch of people banned? Or was that threads? I can't keep the alternatives straight. -Paul
[2025-02-28 17:17:16] - a: "i'd be willing to bet on it." Even if I wanted to take your bet, don't we already have a hard enough time figuring out now if Twitter / X is dying or thriving now let alone if it's being supplanted by a replacement? -Paul
[2025-02-28 17:16:07] - a: They left for what I thought were questionable reasons to start with. They made a big post about it, on the platform they were leaving, talking about why they were leaving. Then they returned later despite there seemingly being no improvement on the things that had upset them. -Paul
[2025-02-28 17:10:17] - a: "i'm gonna start replying to one of your comments, so we can get a better dialog going" I'm not sure I know what you mean by this. "performative?" Yes, largely for the reasons Miguel laid out. -Paul
[2025-02-28 16:01:46] - a: I wouldn’t put a number on it, but probing population trends over the following year will inform that. - mig
[2025-02-25 17:46:38] - mig: is good chunk = 50% or more? i look around on blue sky and it seems like twitter did before. mostly discussion relevant to what i have subscribed to. ~a
[2025-02-25 13:55:18] - a: maybe you aren't personally, but I have no doubts a good chunk of the user base that migrated was, given how many like scotus blog eventually come back. - mig
[2025-02-24 17:06:43] - mig: i left x for bluesky and i don't think it was virtue signalling or performative. maybe you could call it a protest, but what's wrong with a good protest? you want me to vote with my feet, don't you? ~a
[2025-02-24 17:03:59] - scotusblog left for literal years. on the other hand, i'll admit them rejoining now seems questionable. ~a
[2025-02-24 17:01:45] - nah, bluesky and mastodon are not protest apps ~a
[2025-02-24 16:43:26] - a: i could definitely see something taking over twitter at some point, but it’ll be something that provides its users tangible value and not some sort of protest app like mastadon (rip) or bluesky. - mig
[2025-02-24 16:39:58] - a: coming back to x after throwing a fit over elon musk when nothing about x has really changed does very much feel like the initial action of leaving was performative virtual signaling. - mig
[2025-02-24 15:47:12] - paul: i expect x will be overtaken by a similar social network aggregator (something that has textual-posts, and public posts are common, and isn't facebook, measuring by monthly-active-subscribers) by 2030. i'd be willing to bet on it. ~a
[2025-02-24 15:43:24] - paul: i also feel (when i'm not logged in) i only see scotusblog posts on x from 2022? ~a
[2025-02-24 15:41:50] - paul: i'm gonna start replying to one of your comments, so we can get a better dialog going
performative? https://bsky.app/profile/scotus-blog.bsky.social is alive and well and i'm following them there. i was wondering if i could find paul_essen on bsky.app? there are a very few things i followed on x, that i don't see on bsky. ~a[2025-02-24 15:20:16] - "I hope we do not get to the place where the D.C. region is considered a really affordable place to live because that means that things will have gotten really bad" is SUCH a weird way to phrase things. -Paul
[2025-02-24 15:20:04] - https://wjla.com/news/local/federal-workers-layoffs-firings-united-states-agency-international-development-usaid-email-trump-administration-elon-musk-washington I don't disagree with the analysis, but... -Paul
[2025-02-24 15:14:46] - https://x.com/SCOTUSblog/status/1894042616230015448 SCOTUS blog is back on Twitter / X. I'm glad, but a part of me is still annoyed that they did that whole performative crap of noisily leaving in the first place. -Paul
[2025-02-24 03:32:08] - a: The rest of Trump's actions... probably a dumpster fire. Like I said, we'll probably see tax cuts and increased spending in other areas which dwarfs any good that DOGE might do so I'm not overly optimistic. -Paul
[2025-02-24 03:30:54] - a: Put another way: I didn't vote for this. I wouldn't do it this way. The method is questionable at best.... but the end result might be okay and even kind of good? At least with the narrow view of what DOGE is doing. -Paul
[2025-02-24 03:29:40] - a
[2025-02-24 03:29:26] - a: 'what's more i think his expense cutting method is frenetic and dangerous?" All of my experience with Donald Trump's leadership style would lead me to guess this is all being done without a lot of foresight, yes. It's why I said it's almost certainly not the best way to do things. -Paul
[2025-02-24 03:27:30] - a: And if these are changes to agencies under the executive branch.... I don't know if any of this is illegal or is going to be stopped by the courts. What do you think is illegal about what Is going on? -Paul
[2025-02-24 03:26:30] - a: "but he's not allowed to break the law when executing. you agree with that, right? if dogs are breaking the law (and imo it clearly is), then the courts need to ask trump politely to stop? i predict a flood of successful (and otherwise) lawsuits" In short, I don't know? We've unfortunately got a lot of legal theory backing up a strong executive who has lots of powers. -Paul
[2025-02-24 03:24:58] - https://youtu.be/wjuoLkR7yT8?si=0ajw45Dl7_J4DSME My kids sometimes ask me things like if I could beat Serral if I had one of them on my team with me. I always laugh and say I'm not sure I could do it with all of my friends on my team. This video gives me hope that maybe I could. -Paul
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