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paul/mig: "Do you think the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school was hit by US/ Israeli bombs?" oh i don't know. i said 100 children died in operation epic fury. i think we're pretty sure that happened. in my link and this wikipedia article it's pretty clear that investigations are ongoing. those two things (100 children died and investigations are ongoing) are pretty much all i know for sure so far. ~a
paul: i don't follow your point. but birth rates and fertility rates are rarely a straight line in one direction. even just check out us birth rates vs fertility rates in the united states over time. other countries have even crazier lines. can we agree that overpopulation (10b+) will kick off some serious climate change? ~a
do we have any verification of what happened? After the Al-Ahli Hospital incident, forgive me if I don’t take the Iranian state media’s word at face value here. - mig
a: Do you think the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ school was hit by US/ Israeli bombs? -Paul
a: Japan and South Korea are seeing their populations actually decrease and fertility is still dramatically below replacement levels. -Paul
a: "i also feel that there is a serious concern of overpopulation [...] and almost zero concern of underpopulation" I agree, and I also think those fears are very off-target. Fertility has been dropping for a long time and I don't think there's good reason to expect a reversal. -Paul
100 children died in operation epic fury ~a
how so? ~a
the lede feels very buried here. - mig
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi-obtained-kash-patel-susie-wiles-phone-records-during-biden-administration-2026-02-25/ “ In 2023, the FBI recorded a phone call between Wiles and her attorney, according to two FBI officials. Wiles' attorney was aware that the call was being recorded, and consented to it, but Susie Wiles was not.” - mig
xpovos: save america act (2026)? thoughts on what this will change about voting this november if it passes? it passed the house and is "expected to be challenged in the senate, where it would require 60 votes to pass unless rules against the chamber's filibuster rules are changed". ~a
paul: it does assume that. i, of course, assume the population will *both* go up and down. and i also feel that there is a serious concern of overpopulation (over, say, 9b) and almost zero concern of underpopulation (under, say, 1b). (i'm ignoring, for the purposes of debate: underpopulation caused by acts of god, or climate change, or similar) ~a
a: "why do you assume when population goes down, that fertility will stay the same?" Huh? You're saying that fertility will go up when population goes down? That's possible, and I hope it's the case, but that assumes the point I am trying to make (population will be going down). -Paul
paul: it doesn't take a time traveler to see finite and dwindling resources being consumed by an increasing number of people as potentially hazardous and very hard to fix. and that underpopulation potentially a concern, but usually only in pockets of the world, and with much much shorter term fixes especially with air travel being a thing. ~a
paul: "if fertility keeps going down then we're looking at zero eventually" why? why do you assume when population goes down, that fertility will stay the same? we def won't see zero unless there is global climate change caused by . . . overpopulation? or global nuclear war caused by conflict (conflict maybe caused by climate change or . . . overpopulation). like, why aren't these obvious and more serious concerns? ~a
a: It's less about the number and more about the trend. Yeah, maybe we hit 10 billion, but if fertility keeps going down then we're looking at zero eventually. -Paul
a: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate It looks like as of 2023, TFR is 2.3, which is admittedly higher than I expected but also seems just barely above replacement level. Given the pretty well established trend of fertility rates dropping as time goes on and countries become wealthier.... I think it's fair to say we're facing a demographic collapse unless something changes. -Paul
paul: world fertility rate is welllllll over 2.0. and even when a single country's fertility rate is under 2.0, you can easily increase in population. i.e. it's exactly what's happening in the united states right now. most estimates have world population smoothing out around 10b. do you think 10b is not enough? when our parents were kids, the world population was 2.5b. i think 2.5b is enough 
~a
a: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-countries-by-fertility-rate/ Outside of Africa, the rest of the world is looking pretty grim in terms of keeping humanity growing. -Paul
today is the fourth anniversary of the russian invasion. four years. that is so crazy to me. ~a
demographic collapse? ~a
a: Okay, I remember that hypothetical. Not sure if it was a prediction. It's become a little less.... urgent of an issue given the overall demographic collapse that humanity is seeing. -Paul
2024 election voter fraud case. "letter of reprimand" sounds pretty weak. but it is apparently the norm. ~a
the tariff refund, if it happens, will be 15x larger than the tax-payer-donation to the board of peace. and ultimately paid, from the domestic tax payer, to foreign companies. foreign companies that were (now illegally) charged. ~a
the supreme court just ruled on the tariffs. i'm a bit surprised actually that the stock market didn't freak the fuck out, considering how volatile the tariffs made the stock market earlier. (EVEN if there is a tariff refund, which hasn't been made explicit yet) the tariffs don't get refunded to us. even though we paid for them 
~a
mig: further? i think he was arguing that the board of peace goes too far. ~a
xpovos: i would go further. The UN doesn’t just suck, its actively harmful, and probably an antisemitic institution. - mig
yep i think we're agreed. if i went out of my way to try to argue FOR the board of peace getting $10b of my taxpayer money, i still wouldn't be able to get past the obvious real lack of independence and oversight. also i wouldn't be able to get past the perceived lack of independence and oversight. there's good reason the UN doesn't, in it's charter, answer to any asshole billionaires. ~a
just makes it all less likely. Ultimately, I think the most significant outcomes will be waste and fraud, and mostly nothing on geopoltics. So we're actually pretty well aligned, I think. -- Xpovos
a: I was talking to Paul last night and brought this question up. It was probably more than can fit in a message here. Gist is: 10B, if true, could be perceived as a cost of doing business, to put heat on the UN to stop sucking. It's not "good," but it could have political outcomes that are favorable. Particularly from certain angles. The intent seems more likely to be corruption and graft, but that doesn't preclude good political outcomes
any thoughts on the Board of Peace? by some reports the us taxpayers might transfer 10b to the board of peace? and right on the heels of the $10b he's already getting from the justice department? how many billions did biden+obama transfer to their organizations? thank god trump isn't taking his 0.0004b salary. ~a
paul: you wrote a blog entry "about men being extinct in the future". i don't think it had anything to do with science, but i might be remembering wrong. along the lines of women are able to impregnate themselves and that they are increasingly bisexual. is that science? i'm not remembering all of the details. ~a
mig: looks like i didn't have to wait long. ~a
a: looks like they finally arrested Prince Andrew, though it looks like its not related to his abuse of Virginia Giuffre. It is something though. - mig
a: "do you remember your argument about (human) men becoming extinct?" Not really. Was it because I figured our contribution to reproduction would be replaced by science? -Paul
mig: true. i'll keep holding out hope. ~a
at least not to the point where it would outweigh the damage/harassment of innocents from the files. - mig
a: these arrests happened 6-7 years ago. unless there’s evidence linking bin sulayem to a crime we’ve basically got nothing on actual criminal activity beyond those 3. I’m sure bin sulayem’s firing feels good but I’m not sure the victim’s causes are advanced much by that. - mig
mig: we haven't? epstein, maxwell, and brunel were charged using the files. bin sulayem resigned as ceo, over trump's release. that got the victims something. but I also assume there will be more. as the files are still not released! yes, there were certainly people harmed in the the process, but I think we should consider those materially harmed first: the sexual assault victims that were named by the justice department (maliciously?) ~a
a: and we have gotten no closer to finding evidence to help those victims. And we’ve harmed innocent people in this process. - mig
mig: "What the fuck are we doing here?" do you want me to reply with the same energy? it's a huge literal-conspiracy. many many women and girls were raped. ~a
a: I have to ask again. What the fuck are we doing here? We aren't getting any closer to prosecuting anyone. All we've accomplished so far is some public naming and shaming that may or may not be deserved. Bondi is probably a fucking incompetent moron who probably should resign, but Ro Khanna is a fucking malicious moron who probably should be expelled from congress. - mig
and Khanna blaming the DoJ is absolutely fucking cowardly because 1) he was the one agitating for these people to be unredacted, 2) he had full access to the unredacted files and could have probably easily ascertained these people had no real links to epstein. - mig
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/13/four-men-unredacted-epstein-files-no-ties-ro-khanna so now it turns out that 4 of these people Ro Khanna had absolutely no links to Epstein, so he ended up slandering them on the house floor (though he is apparently immune from being sued as a "privilege" of being a congressman speaking on the floor). - mig
mig: for bin sulayem i don't think i've seen evidence of a crime: or at least not evidence bin sulayem comitted a crime. it is a "prime example of the many redactions that were protecting sex pests with ties to trump". which is maybe a mistake. but also super suspicious. though i'm not sure anybody has any intention of indicting bondi any time in the next three years. ~a
a: I don’t know. what evidence exists for bin sulayem? exchanging explicit emails or being friends with isn’t a crime nor is evidence of one. - mig
mig: bin sulayem just resigned his job today (ceo of dp world). not charged with a crime, yet. but it is a start. calling these files vile and creepy is fine, because they are. but they are also evidence of illegal behavior. jeffrey epstein and ghislaine maxwell were charged using these files. and there will be at least a few more. you agree? ~a
paul: oh man. 18 is so close! do you remember your argument about (human) men becoming extinct? i don't remember any of the details. does new data change your thoughts on this, or no? ~a
a: a+miguel+pierce+dewey+paul+travis+vinnie+david+aaron+aparna+andrew? By my count (which could be out of date), we are at 18. I did my part to try to get us to replacement level. Some slackers are not helping. -Paul
mig: you agree then? i think that's what i said. ~a
a: if we aren’t getting closer to bringing actual criminal charges to people, then no I don’t consider that to be of much substance. Naming and shaming people over vile and creepy emails might be cathartic, but I don’t think its very productive towards seeking justice. - mig
mig: pretty well timed question this morning. where are you? are you ok, i loved the torture video. i'm definitely not using bin sulayem as a prime example of "anything of real substance out of these files", but as a prime example of the many redactions that were protecting sex pests with ties to trump. ~a
paul: (also since it's not obvious from my quote, "you" = aaron) ~a
paul: my count is probably a bit off, but i still think my guess for 2023 was right on. and, i still don't think we'll ever reach replacement (22), but it looks like we got much closer than i thought we would. ~a
paul: touching back on this since we talked about it at your party: from 2013: "me+miguel+pierce+dewey+paul+travis+vinnie+david+you+aparna+andrew=6 kids" from 2018: "i predicted we'd be at 10-12 kids in 2018 and we are! (12 kids?) 11 of us, 12 kids, we passed half way to replacement. i predict in 2023 we are at 14-16 kids." other than being right on my prediction, i have otherwise lost count in 2026, can you do the count for me? ~a
