can’t spell hatred without red hat

a: Did it actually? Because I thought the first few times he said that it was.... stretching the truth. -Paul a: I think the reddit itself confused me. I didn't grok that somebody legit didn't understand the comic and was asking what was going on. -Paul gas just broke $1.98 per gallon.  wow, even i am surprised.  ~a paul:  i think you were right originally:  it's hyperbole.  what about the joke you don't get?  ~a a: Seems like a bit of a stretch to say that, just because vehicular manslaughter is a thing that people are violently against walkable cities? I mean, I guess it's probably technically true that you can find at least one person who is violently against anything. -Paul mig/paul:  thanks for the opportunity to point out that drivers kill 150 people per day.  150 people per hour?  not all of those are unintentional.    ~a a: Nope! Can't say that I have. I feel like local planning meetings likely draw a lot of hyper opinionated and maybe mentally unstable people with too much time on their hands. -Paul you have never been to the local planning meetings for a new bike lane?  ~a a: The "I'd kill them" felt like hyperbole to make some kind of joke (which I admittedly don't get). Like Miguel said, I don't know if I really see a lot of people violently against walkable neighborhoods. -Paul a:  citation needed?  who are these people violently against walkable cities? - mig paul:  yes they're describing nimbyism.  is nimbyism bad and hypocritical?  well, no, not always.  usually.  is it . . . understandable?  sorta.  it's the "i'd kill them" that tips the scales a bit though, right?  hopefully you agree that's a bit over the line.  some people are . . . violently against walkable neighborhoods?  such that it makes them so angry that they can barely keep their shit together.  ~a a: For example, I like visiting Vegas every once in awhile but likely wouldn't want to live there. -Paul a: Like, I get that some people like certain things when on vacation but wouldn't want it at home (like bicycle lanes or whatever). I guess I can see how it can be hypocritical, but I think it can be a reasonable thing. -Paul a: "i thought you wfh?" I do. That was a message reddit gave me. I could see it the second time, though. I.... don't get it? -Paul a: "big oof for the constitutional republicans these days" Rand Paul is handling himself a little better this time around in terms of speaking out against the tariffs. -Paul a: "tariffs, if they ever work, if they can ever work, ONLY could possibly do so when they're stable, simple/understandable, and predictable.  these seem to be none of the above, right?" It's none of the above, true. Whether it can work depends on what they're trying to accomplish, I guess. -Paul paul:  "I've been blocked by network security"  i thought you wfh?  ~a i always thought the oath of office is pretty clear about a few things.  "i don't know" is such a bad response to something clearly covered in his presidential inauguration.  ~a "Trump says he doesn't know if he must uphold the Constitution"  big oof for the constitutional republicans these days.  ~a paul:  "it might change tomorrow and it's not like I can do anything about it in the meantime"  isn't that one part of the problem?  maybe that's your point, i guess?  tariffs, if they ever work, if they can ever work, ONLY could possibly do so when they're stable, simple/understandable, and predictable.  these seem to be none of the above, right?  ~a I haven't been keeping up with the tariff stuff at all. Why bother? It might change tomorrow and it's not like I can do anything about it in the meantime. Wake me up when the new world order has arrived. -Paul a: Nice on the nVidia gains! I owned it many years ago and sold it for a small gain well before it took off. Much regret. -Paul a: I've been blocked by network security. -Paul welcome to the war on cars, explainthejoke  ~a wikipedia says "the 10% minimum tariff and the 25% sector-specific tariffs remain in effect"  is that right?  i'm a bit surprised the stock markets are cool with this especially with the 90 day thing looming?  ~a i'm having trouble keeping up.  what tariffs are we currently paying?  google has let me down.  i know he kept the tariff rate on china in tact.  i know he backed out of most of the others:  but are we still paying +10% on everything and everybody?  or, no.  ~a needs more logarithms!  my IRA website has a chart that shows where i've been making all my realized gains in 2025:  i sold 10 shares of nvidia last week and realized 21,000% in gains:  so all my other realized gains look like zero gains on their non-logarithm chart.  ~a a: We'll see what Bitcoin is at by 2030. Hopefully I do owe him a lot (or he owes me even more). At the time Microsoft and Tencent and Amazon and Apple seemed like the ones making the biggest push into gaming. -Paul a: "losing to really good players doesn't matter, right?" In theory if I lose to somebody who is ranked significantly higher, I won't lose much MMR. -Paul a: "you might actually *be* masters 3" No way. I've played enough ranked Zerg 1v1 to feel pretty confident that I am low diamond with Zerg and I feel like my Terran is significantly worse than my Zerg. I was thinking maybe Plat 1. -Paul paul:  i think you're gonna have to pay andrew a bunch of money in 2030.  why did you pick such a short list of companies?  you didn't include meta or sony or alphabet or . . . disney?  netflix?  ea?  ~a paul:  "I missed it"  nah it's still fucked.  if you change "bats:arkk" to "arkk" you'll see the issue i'm observing.  ~a paul:  you might actually *be* masters 3.  (i always saw you and daniel and mark as high-diamond).  losing to really good players doesn't matter, right?  i also have a strong feeling that the "match assignments" are bullshit and don't matter.  ~a I was feeling a little under the weather today so I played some 1v1 ranked SC2 using Terran. 5 matches to get my league assigned. Got my ass kicked in 4/5 and only won the other because I did a proxy barracks rush. It kept pitting me up against Masters and Diamond players. End result? It put me in Masters 3! Wtf? -Paul a: I missed it. Last I checked a few weeks ago it looked like things were tracking fine. Of course, I don't watch it too closely because I've already written that one off. -Paul bonus points, since i don't alphabetically have any stocks in my list between "arkk" and "bats", i didn't have to reorder my list.  ~a nm i figured out a workaround (it's at the very bottom).  ~a paul:  any clue what's going on with the bets/wagers spreadsheet?  arkk is listed as ~[$5 per unit] on google's api.  i see ~[$51 per unit] on google.com/finance (and on all other sources).  maybe we're mid-split, but that does not jive with what i would expect:  most people don't split when they've dropped a bunch.  ~a a: "he is unpredictable, do you disagree?" Nope. 100% agree. But inflation can be pretty unpredictable too. -Paul paul:  i agree lowering the fed rate would increase home sales.  but i don't think they should lower the fed rate and i don't think increasing home sales was ever a goal:  the goal was always affordable housing if people want it.  which, like you, is something i don't think the government can provide.  but instead, affordable housing is something the government can fuck up (zoning, etc).  ~a paul:  his tarrifs on china are at 145%.  ok.  fine, if they stay at 145%, then i predict his four year average inflation will be 5% or greater.  ~a paul:  no, i refuse.  he is unpredictable, do you disagree?  my "huge and obvious" wording was under the assumption that he wouldn't u-turn.  sorry i didn't say that.  ~a a: "it'll likely be because he both illegally ignored congress and illegally ignored the supreme court" TIL that the President CAN'T just unilaterally fire the head of the Fed unless it's "for cause". -Paul a: It looks like Biden's was 4.95% over his 4 years? -Paul a: Oh, sorry, I missed that you were looking at total inflation over the entire term. Pick a number for that then. -Paul a: "that depends" Don't hedge now! You were making predictions of "huge and obvious inflation". What's your best guess on what Trump will do and what the result will be? If you had to set an over/under of inflation in.... 6 months? What would it be? -Paul a: "decreasing the fed rate isn't a silver bullet" Sure. Nothing is guaranteed, but I feel pretty confident that lower interest rates will NOT be detrimental to home sales and would likely increase them. -Paul paul:  "maybe it just hates the uncertainty around the idea of Trump nominating a flunky"  i disagree:  if he nominates *anyone* before 2028, it'll likely be because he both illegally ignored congress and illegally ignored the supreme court.  that's some uncertainty the market hates.  ~a paul:  "What do you think inflation will peak at in the coming months?"  that depends:  if trump goes back to his original plan (the one he presented on the sandwich boards), his 4-y-average inflation will be higher than biden's 4-y-average inflation (cpiu).  if trump does not do that, then the inflation could be lower.  ~a paul:  "unlock housing supply"  decreasing the fed rate isn't a silver bullet:  decreasing the fed rate will potentially increase the supply of cheaper homes . . . but will also increase the demand on expensive homes.  it will also encourage builders to tear down cheap homes to replace with expensive ones.  ~a a: I'm a little surprised there's been such a big reaction to Trump walking back his comments about Powell a bit. Does the market love Powell? Maybe. I think maybe it just hates the uncertainty around the idea of Trump nominating a flunky. -Paul a: "that is my prediction" What do you think inflation will peak at in the coming months? -Paul a: Oops, that was in reference to: "so, who should decide?" -Paul a: Hard money instead of fiat money. -Paul a: But there's also reason to be concerned about reducing rates and stoking inflation given other things going on. -Paul a: I was critical of his past decisions. I don't necessarily have a position on what he should do now. As I mentioned, there are reasons to think reducing rates is a good idea (unlock housing supply, help federal government refinance debt)... -Paul it's pretty clear that the market loves powell (and/or the market hates the constitutional crisis of trump ignoring both the legislative *and* the judiciary by firing the chair of the fed).  trump decides not to fire powell and the market goes up 7% over half of a day, jfc.  ~a paul:  "Have we seen huge and obvious inflation lately?"  seen?  that is my prediction.  we won't have information from the bls on inflation for a few more weeks but also i don't think the true cost of tariffs will take at least a year to be fully realized.  ~a paul:  "idea of the government trying to control the money supply"  what do you propose?  yes, having individual banks deciding their own interest rates is what we do now, but who prints new usd?  currently, the fed gets the new usd from the treasury and lends it out at the rate decided by the FRB?  you don't want the president or congress deciding how new dollars are printed + loaned?  so, who should decide?  ~a