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[2010-07-01 11:31:37] - I'm free as soon as I'm out of work at 5 - vinnie
[2010-07-01 11:27:38] - Stephen: so if we dont do dinner does that means we would order or expect to have already eaten? What are peoples schedules like today... I think I can show up whenever/wherever need be... ~gurkie
[2010-07-01 11:23:15] - Gurkie: It's very close, and I liked it too. The only issue is if we can fit in dinner + 3 hours of SYTYCD (meaning 2 hours and change of real time) and still be done by 10 or so. - Stephen
[2010-07-01 11:21:20] - Stephen: I vote for not rotten deer carcass. Since its near Aaron maybe he has some good suggestions? I liked Pho Hot when I went there not sure how close that is to Aar. ~gurkie
[2010-07-01 11:00:06] - I liked sixth sense but that was it. Signs was beyond unbearable to sit through. - mig
[2010-07-01 10:55:59] - I think in better hands I would have loved Sixth Sense and Signs (maybe Unbreakable). they all have good concepts but subpar, similar executions - vinnie
[2010-07-01 10:54:25] - paul: I really disliked Unbreakable (hey, that's another least favorite movie of the 00's for me), but I enjoyed the other two at the time. but I found them problematic for the reasons I described and have no desire to see them again. he's way more of a boring director to me than a hateworthy one - vinnie
[2010-07-01 10:52:34] - Pierce: What do you want to eat for dinner tonight, if not rotten deer carcass? - Stephen
[2010-07-01 10:49:21] - It's funny, I don't remember hating any MNS movies that I have seen (Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, Signs, The Village), although they did noticeably decrease in quality. At some point, I just stopped watching his movies because they didn't seem interesting to me. -Paul
[2010-07-01 10:48:06] - xpovos: yeah I think a large issue with his movies is not knowing how to direct people. I've only seen Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, and Signs, but all three share that problem. the acting is too understated, and it was an especially bad fit in Unbreakable - vinnie
[2010-07-01 10:45:59] - pierce: I don't think he's a particularly good director either, Sixth Sense was a pretty big fluke when you compare to his other movies. his movies are all directed in the same lifeless mood, except airbender seemingly. I'll admit if I hadn't already known airbender was him, I would never have guessed, but I'm not surprised it's getting bad reviews - vinnie
[2010-07-01 10:30:57] - pierce: I think he's a better writer than a director, though. 6th Sense was innovative. Unbreakable had a terrific concept, that just wasn't played out well. The defining element for Shaymalan movies (behind a twist ending that's usually not so twisty) is absolutely wooden acting. Sometimes that's intentional, but it's too consistent. -- Xpovos
[2010-07-01 10:29:11] - Stephen: True. And in the end, I felt M&L was a solid effort for a genre I don't care for. But it still wasn't a 'good' movie. I think the kitsch was fun, but that Wimbledon was done better as a movie. Or maybe I just like tennis more than I like 80s pop music? -- Xpovos
[2010-07-01 10:07:40] - Shyamalan has made a lot of shitty movies, but I thought the popular explanation for that was that he's just an awful writer. Since TLA wasn't a Shyamalan original I'd been holding out hope that he'd be able to hit it out of the park. - pierce
[2010-07-01 09:49:49] - Xpovos: I frightened myself by liking Music and Lyrics, and I normally can't stand Hugh Grant. It probably helped that his character wasn't supposed to be that likable. - Stephen
[2010-07-01 09:28:21] - amy: In terms of romcoms worse than Wimbledon? I haven't seen too many recently, and our DVDs still aren't unpacked. I'll have to get you a list later. But for some reason I felt Wimbledon was actually pretty good for the genre. We recently saw Music and Lyrics, and that too was almost as good. Which might mean quite the opposite for you. -- Xpovos
[2010-07-01 09:20:19] - amy: I'd heard about the controversy, but I essentially ignored it. I felt it was more important that the Inuit-esque Katara and Sokka be properly depicted than that Aang meet some perceived cultural value because he knows mystic martial arts. -- Xpovos
[2010-07-01 08:56:07] - amy: it was at least somewhat in the mainstream; i saw it as a link off the rotten tomatoes review and read about it this morning - aaron
[2010-07-01 08:45:28] - amy: it's weird, you had told me about that but on the preview for the movie, everyone looks asian. is it all makeup? - vinnie
[2010-07-01 00:34:54] - uh here's a good quote about it from that article: "whenever a white actor is cast in a lead Asian role, this perpetuates a racial double standard and diminishes already scarce opportunities for Asian American actors" -amy
[2010-07-01 00:32:31] - anyway, the controversy was that they cast white actors as the 3 main characters in a movie that is supposed to be rich in asian culture. this article explains it better: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2699131/m_night_shyamalans_the_last_airbender.html -amy
[2010-07-01 00:28:19] - was the racial controversy over the last airbender not known in the mainstream? my friend's sister is in that movie btw, i guess an "extra" but she does martial arts stuff in it so i don't know if that counts as being more than an extra. (said friend's sister is, of course, white.) -amy
[2010-07-01 00:26:10] - oh yeah and i also saw both "crossroads" and "from justin to kelly," both worthy contenders for worst movie of decade imo. -amy
[2010-07-01 00:25:44] - xpovos: i'd be curious what romcoms you saw that were worse than wimbledon, maybe it might jog my memory if we saw any of the same ones. (then again, do i really want that? heh) -amy
[2010-07-01 00:24:56] - a: yay now i can respond to what xpovos said to me almost a day ago, because i'm not around during mboard peak hours and then by the time i check again everything i said has been scrolled off -amy
[2010-06-30 23:56:21] - or maybe they think much like his movies, his career will have a twist ending - vinnie
[2010-06-30 23:54:19] - so when will backers realize m night shyamalan hasn't made a well-received or financially successful movie since 2002? this guy is gonna ride The Sixth Sense until he's dead - vinnie
[2010-06-30 22:22:05] - pierce: 33 now and it's down to 6%. I too had high hopes. I'd been describing it as "The Avatar I want to see". *sigh* -- Xpovos
[2010-06-30 20:19:10] - awww, 30 reviews in and the last airbender is at 8% freshness. I had hopes for that one
- pierce[2010-06-30 17:07:58] - amy: fixed. i was playing around with that code this morning and i created a bug. thanks for catching it! ~a
[2010-06-30 15:59:57] - How about that reference, Gurkie? - Stephen
[2010-06-30 15:59:53] - Yeah he played out the year for us and put us in Spring 1907 to fix it. So anything that changed hands in Spring 06 went through a winter turn and switched. It does look like we can work it out to not matter but its a little odd. -Daniel
[2010-06-30 15:59:51] - Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. Only Denmark's fine, it's the rest of Scandinavia that is screwy. - Stephen
[2010-06-30 15:57:01] - mig: yeah this is a little fishy. i have norway too. it might not matter. - aaron
[2010-06-30 15:53:30] - having trouble with most recent "previous entry." i click on it and it doesn't take me to a new page, just to the one i'm already on. (the list of prev entries.) -amy
[2010-06-30 15:41:55] - yeah i noticed that too. It *shouldn't* make a difference depending on how the turns work out, but I'll have to call him again if it ends up mattering. - mig
[2010-06-30 15:37:13] - So, I'm not sure if I'm reading this correctly, or if it makes a difference, but it looks like a minor side effect is that I currently own the Budapest SC and France owns Holland (neither of which I believe is supposed to happen yet). -Paul
[2010-06-30 15:35:55] - Looks like it got fixed. Thx Miguel. -Daniel
[2010-06-30 15:26:09] - btw, all players will have to re-enter all their orders once the correction is done (as it involves reprocessing turns) so if you put in preliminary orders try to remember them. - mig
[2010-06-30 15:21:12] - heard back from the GM again (finally) looks like he'll try to correct the results, though apparently it will be tricky. - mig
[2010-06-30 15:19:06] - that was rife for abuse so it was amended to "convoys only take precedence if the same country controls both units", and finally amended to the current rule, which is (as cited below), "pick one, whatev, it's just diplomacy" - aaron
[2010-06-30 15:17:45] - yeah, miguel and i talked about it. there's been some contradictions and revisions of the rules regarding what happens when overland routes conflict with convoy routes. the earliest revision was "convoys always take precedence..." - aaron
[2010-06-30 15:03:09] - paul: i dunno, I'm trying to get more clarification from the GM. - mig
[2010-06-30 15:02:42] - mig: Hmmm, so the current results are going to stand? -Paul
[2010-06-30 14:48:58] - oh
[2010-06-30 14:48:45] - daniel: the GM's policy is that he will only change results for genuine errors in the judge's processing. - mig
[2010-06-30 14:47:49] - Wasn't his intent pretty obviously the convoy? -Daniel
[2010-06-30 14:47:23] - I can see why a judge algorithm might have trouble with the last turn now. - mig
[2010-06-30 14:47:05] - If aaron agreed that it should be in Sweden can't the GM just make it so? -Daniel
[2010-06-30 14:46:49] - "6. BOTH A CONVOY ROUTE AND AN OVERLAND ROUTE. If an army could arrive at its destination either overland or by convoy, one route must be considered and the other disregarded, depending upon intent as shown by the totality of the orders written by the player governing the army."
[2010-06-30 14:41:14] - paul: the main problem (and I'm trying to sort this out with the GM) is figuring out whether the land route or the convoy route has priority according to the rules. I think according to the rulebook I have at home, the army definitely should have made it into sweden, but they're using a much older rulebook on the site so I don't know for sure what should happen. - mig
[2010-06-30 14:38:36] - gurkie: google "monty python argument" and look for youtube results. - pierce
[2010-06-30 14:35:52] - Stephen: Well, I figure either I should be in Sweden (Denmark supported me in) or the current result is correct (if "two units cannot exchange territories" overrides the fact that one was convoyed around). -Paul
[2010-06-30 14:32:21] - Paul: I have no idea. I did mean retreat orders, then I realized that you had an army in Norway, not a fleet. That said, I don't see how Aaron's in Sweden. Shouldn't you have at least bounced? - Stephen
[2010-06-30 14:29:05] - Stephen: I assume you meant retreat orders? Anyway, I'm not entirely sure why the convoy there didn't work. Shouldn't I be in possession of Sweden right now? -Paul
[2010-06-30 14:23:50] - (note that I just didnt get any of that... ) ~gurkie
[2010-06-30 14:23:33] - waaaaah life sucks! ~gurkie
[2010-06-30 14:21:15] - gurkie: Be careful him saying it was a reference was also a reference itself. (btw this is a recursive reference to itself) -Daniel
[2010-06-30 14:17:39] - gurkie: That too was a reference. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-30 14:14:59] - xpovos: why do you think I came here for an argument? I wasnt arguing with anyone... I came here to vent since its frustrating that I feel like I smile and nod all day long. ~gurkie
[2010-06-30 14:14:22] - pierce: grrr. ~gurkie
[2010-06-30 14:06:47] - pierce: I think the problem is that she came here for an argument. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-30 13:46:09] - gurkie: that was a reference.
- pierce[2010-06-30 13:23:36] - Well, DD-WRT didn't work. On the plus side, now I have one less wireless router to have to worry about selling. Time to go to Best Buy. -Paul
[2010-06-30 13:08:19] - pierce: references and fancy words are not the same thing... you nimcompoop! ~gurkie
[2010-06-30 11:53:42] - Xpovos: Picardy's support would have been cut anyway if that makes you feel better, but yeah misorders are always annoying. -Daniel
[2010-06-30 11:45:55] - gurkie: your co-worker sounds like Bruce Vilanch must have sounded at the 1987 Oscars amirite - vinnie
[2010-06-30 11:39:29] - Dammit, my miscues on orders are really hurting. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-30 11:32:15] - gurkie: it's not my fault you don't get my references, you vacuous, toffee-nosed, malodorous pervert. - pierce
[2010-06-30 11:31:23] - Paul: NM. I'm dumb. - STephen
[2010-06-30 11:27:43] - Paul: Disband orders?
- Stephen[2010-06-30 11:05:30] - omg I have a coworker who I seriously think I understand about a third of the things he says... no its not an accent, its just all references that allude me. ~gurkie
[2010-06-30 11:04:18] - Go Team Austria-Italy!
[2010-06-30 10:58:13] - a: Yeah, it definitely does. I've tried connecting my netbook to the non-verizon router, and connecting the non-verizon router to the verizon router with an ethernet cable (using the "internet" port on the non-verizon router). -Paul
[2010-06-30 10:57:34] - I'm reviewing my moves right now. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-30 10:53:49] - If Adrian and Andrew are ready to toggle for 2010-06 thats all we need.
[2010-06-30 10:48:14] - paul: some wireless routers have ethernet ports. does yours? ~a
[2010-06-30 10:47:29] - Noted. I *think* it is possible, but I'm not sure if the verizon router will cooperate. - mig
[2010-06-30 10:45:40] - mig: Yeah, but I would rather not have to spend $50 on something I might not need if I can use one of the two extra wireless routers that are sitting in a box. -Paul
[2010-06-30 10:43:42] - i had to do the same thing when i upgraded to windows 7. - mig
[2010-06-30 10:43:23] - paul: just buy another one. - mig
[2010-06-30 10:43:06] - Paul: I'm going to guess not unless you want to write a new driver. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-30 10:40:36] - mig: Turns out there aren't windows 7 drivers for the usb wireless "card" I was using on my old computer. -Paul
[2010-06-30 10:39:57] - mig: Yes.
-Paul[2010-06-30 10:38:23] - and have a direct connection from the non-verizon router to your computer? - mig
[2010-06-30 10:38:01] - Describe more in detail how you want to set it up. Do you mean you want your router to connect to the verizon router downstairs? - mig
[2010-06-30 10:23:25] - Does anybody here know if a wireless router can basically be used as a wireless card? -Paul
[2010-06-30 08:37:34] - we both said a lot of things you're going to regret.
~a[2010-06-30 08:37:26] - amy: Really? Wow. Katie makes me watch terrible romantic comedies. Wimbledon was among the best in that category. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-30 08:11:54] - has anybody heard of a gamed called VVVVVV? it's another retro platformer, haven't bought it yet but i bought the soundtrack. i played the demo and it was really fun - aaron
[2010-06-30 00:09:47] - meet wheatley - pierce
[2010-06-30 00:05:00] - oh yeah i dated this guy that made watch all these really shitty romantic comedies with him, ugh. i think wimbledon is the worst of them that i can remember, but i'm probably repressing the memory of a movie that was worse. -amy
[2010-06-29 23:56:04] - ok ok I thought of the real worst movie of the past decade. well I can't decide whether The Hours was worse, but Indiana Jones 4 was horrible - vinnie
[2010-06-29 23:48:24] - I'm surprised to find that I saw half of the top ten grossing movies in that list from 2003. In the theatres, too. Uncharacteristic of me. I don't think I've even seen 5 movies in the theatre in a year in a long time. Maybe since 2003 .) -amy
[2010-06-29 23:07:53] - 2003 also had bad santa, and big fish, and house of sand and fog! mystic river and the school of rock were ok. also . . . love actually
~a[2010-06-29 19:06:09] - That lasted until about three quarters of the way through the previews when I realized that not only had they not carded my date (who went in first, so it's not that they carded me and saw I was old enough and assumed she was) but that they carded me because they felt I could have been under 17! -- Xpovos
[2010-06-29 19:05:04] - gurkie: No. It was for Matrix Revolutions. Note the 2003 release date, and it was late 2003. They had a sign up saying due to the fact that the movie had an 'R' rating, they'd be carding. I got carded. This didn't bother me, because it was pre-announced/warned, etc. Also, I felt it was reasonable that they could misidentify me as an under-21-year-old. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-29 17:54:34] - vinnie/a: I have no idea what time it closes I was just curious cause of a's response to poker invite... ~gurkie
[2010-06-29 17:16:49] - I was planning on staying until the park closes. not sure about the other people going - vinnie
[2010-06-29 17:10:54] - xpovos: getting kicked ? ~gurkie
[2010-06-29 17:05:46] - Paul: The world is coming to an end, we're getting closer to agreement on movies. Wow, I saw 60% of the top ten grossing in theatres. One of them is even the source of an amusing anecdote of my life. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-29 16:45:49] - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_in_film Wow, 2003 was quite a year for films I liked. My favorite Lord of the Rings movie, two Matrix movies, my favorite Pirates of the Caribbean movie, my favorite X-Men movie, and it also had the first Underworld movie (not on the list). -Paul
[2010-06-29 16:24:51] - Stephen: I think it's this upcoming Friday. -Paul
[2010-06-29 15:46:07] - When is the KD trip? - Stephen
[2010-06-29 15:28:39] - gurkie: i dunno. i'm staying until the second-to-last person wants to leave. iow, i'll stay untill kd closes unless people want to go back earlier.
~a[2010-06-29 15:23:28] - Nina: I like Argentinians (sp?) better.... Just because I have been there and havent been to Brazil. Also I was there last time they got kicked out of the world cup and it was amazing how empty the streets were during the game... ~gurkie
[2010-06-29 15:22:12] - Stephen: not if it takes 2 years to plan a trip... ~gurkie
[2010-06-29 15:21:35] - i'd definitely route for Brazil over Argentina, but that's because I like Brazilians better than Argentines. -nina
[2010-06-29 15:21:32] - a: what time will you all be at KD until? ~gurkie
[2010-06-29 15:14:45] - Gurkie: Don't you want Paul to travel more? - Stephen
[2010-06-29 15:08:01] - paul: just stay put within the US then he will like you... ~gurkie
[2010-06-29 14:37:41] - Paul: He hates you! for rooting against him! -Daniel
[2010-06-29 14:34:12] - Daniel: Also, he said, "I hate everything that comes from the United States. I hate it with all my strength." So I think it's reasonable for me to root against his team.
-Paul[2010-06-29 14:32:42] - Daniel: I don't mind crazy. I still consider myself to be a partial fan of Ron Artest. I just can't root for somebody who openly admires Fidel Castro, Che Guevara and Hugo Chavez. -Paul
[2010-06-29 14:30:28] - Gurkie: Eh, I think it's more accurate to say you're rooting for the coach than a country. The coach is a part of the team, a tiny percentage of the country is a part of the team. -Paul
[2010-06-29 14:29:56] - Paul: what has he done that is so crazy? I've heard a lot of people talk about it but I'm not familiar enough with him. -Daniel
[2010-06-29 14:21:30] - Paul: you are rooting for a country not a person... ~gurkie
[2010-06-29 14:14:49] - Daniel: Because of Maradona. I can't bring myself to root for a person like that. -Paul
[2010-06-29 14:14:00] - mig: I don't question his madness at all. It's because of his madness that I root against his team. -Paul
[2010-06-29 13:59:40] - Daniel: It needs a colon, not a dash. - Stephen
[2010-06-29 13:49:38] - apparently it has to be lowercase to get colored? -Daniel
[2010-06-29 13:49:21] - paul:
[2010-06-29 13:49:04] - paul - test
[2010-06-29 13:48:59] - Paul - test
[2010-06-29 13:48:43] - Paul- Why the dislike of Argentina? -Daniel
[2010-06-29 13:43:40] - paul: you dare question the madness of Maradona? - mig
[2010-06-29 13:36:59] - I'm cheering for Germany and any team that plays Argentina. I don't follow soccer enough to hate Brazil for winning all the time, so I might even root for them. -Paul
[2010-06-29 13:22:49] - stephen: i would also like to not see Brazil win. The Netherlands should provide quite a fight, but unfortunately if they don't, Brazil is probably not going to be challenged until the finals (I can't see Uruguay or Ghana beating them). - mig
[2010-06-29 13:16:31] - Mig: I can cheer for the Guays, but I like Germany, and desperately want any team other than Brazil to win the World Cup. An all South American semi-finals round would be cool, though. - Stephen
[2010-06-29 13:13:30] - stephen: And the brackets may work out to where there could be an all South American semi-finals. - mig
[2010-06-29 13:02:14] - So what, half of the World Cup semifinalists are from South America? - Stephen
[2010-06-29 12:29:27] - xpovos: heh! the wallet problem is a good one too. it seems different to me, but i like the modified problem more, because it doesn't deal with infinite amounts of money the fallacy is less blatant to me. - aaron
[2010-06-29 12:20:32] - aaron: Interesting, I think the modified problem (making B=2A) actually detracts from the paradox. It was pretty obvious to me that there was a wrong calculation, and I identified the step with the error before Wikipedia told me. But in the original 'wallet' paradox, B is just > 2A. That's actually a much harder situation to run expected value calculations on. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-29 11:59:27] - paul: that was the hardest one for me to understand. i think all they're saying is that, assume the host reveals a random door you didn't pick. there's a chance he'll reveal the car (oops) but, assuming he didn't reveal the car, you only have a 50% chance of winning since he didn't reveal as much information - aaron
[2010-06-29 11:55:03] - Aaron: Interesting problem. I don't know enough about how to calculate expected value to make sense of some of the complicated stuff, though.
-Paul[2010-06-29 11:44:38] - I don't really want an answer, I'm just saying I don't understand that part.
-Paul[2010-06-29 11:44:09] - aaron: I read some of them, but then gave up. I have trouble figuring out why the host knowing which door has the car makes a difference (revealing a door at random vs revealing the door with the goat). Obviously it makes a difference if he reveals the car, but why does it matter if he randomly reveals a goat or knowingly does? -Paul
[2010-06-29 11:40:49] - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_envelopes_problem ahaha and this is another good problem. i'm sad that wikipedia spoiled the answer for me? but i'm glad that i don't understand the answer anyways so it's still a confusing problem
- aaron[2010-06-29 11:31:56] - paul: i thought i understood the monty hall problem pretty well but that section on "Possible host behaviors in unspecified problem" took me a little while to digest - aaron
[2010-06-29 11:25:17] - a: I don't know, I'm sure the logic is sound, and I can't really find any flaws, it's just so unintuitive to me (which I know is the entire point of the article). Just like the Monty Hall problem.
-Paul[2010-06-29 11:24:29] - a: The legitimate birth and the illegitimate one, I guess? -Paul
[2010-06-29 11:21:58] - paul: which two events? ~a
[2010-06-29 11:20:35] - aaron: I suppose. Still seems odd to me. -Paul
[2010-06-29 11:19:29] - a: yeah the verizon guy seemed to think HDMI output was going to be a really big deal! i wanted hdmi input... so i could play littlebigplanet on my phone
- aaron[2010-06-29 11:15:46] - aaron: cool! you'll have to wait a while i think. but it'll be worth it. the droid x looks really sweet. it has hdmi output which is crazy. also 802.11n. and tons of flash memory. ~a
[2010-06-29 11:11:43] - a: http://www.electronista.com/articles/10/06/28/shortages.may.kill.droid.incredible.early/ i'm getting a droid X instead - aaron
[2010-06-29 11:10:49] - unfortunately, if you use the same "four family" scenario and assume that the younger child is a boy, the probability that the other child is a boy is 1/2 (since it eliminates the GB and GG cases...) so sadly you can't use probability to predict the gender of future babies
- aaron[2010-06-29 11:09:21] - "doesn't the explanation they give seem to treat the two events as being dependent on each other" hmm? which two events? ~a
[2010-06-29 11:03:24] - paul: i can't totally wrap my head around the problem either; but again, think if you had four families with two kids each representing the four possibilities GG, GB, BB, BG. given that one of their children is a boy (eliminating the GG possibility), the probability that the other child is a boy is 1/3 - aaron
[2010-06-29 10:58:07] - probablity makes my head hurt sometimes. -Daniel
[2010-06-29 10:58:06] - I feel like there has to be some sort of fallacy going on there. I mean, doesn't the explanation they give seem to treat the two events as being dependent on each other? Shouldn't they be independent events? -Paul
[2010-06-29 10:51:16] - Same thing with the two children problem listed in that article. If I am understanding it correctly, that's like saying if you know somebody who has one kid, and it's a boy, then you find out he had an affair at some point (don't know if it was before or after his boy was born)... there's a 2/3rds chance his illegitimate child is a girl? -Paul
[2010-06-29 10:49:47] - I guess I should re-phrase: I agree that it's "true" (or whatever you want to call it), but the reasoning behind it makes no sense to me. I read the 100 doors thing on wikipedia and it makes sense, but I can't logically make sense of it. -Paul
[2010-06-29 10:46:49] - your* original. stupid english -Daniel
[2010-06-29 10:45:20] - hah! that's a very funny explanation. ~a
[2010-06-29 10:41:37] - Paul - I think a helpful explanation for me that I read somewhere for the Monte Hall thing is to envision 100 doors instead of 3. You pick a door. The host reveals all the crappy doors until just two doors are left. You're original and one more and offers the switch. Does that help at all or no? -Daniel
[2010-06-29 10:36:44] - paul: just step through the combinations. it also helps to learn that the announcer is revealing information: the announcer is not picking a door at random. ~a
[2010-06-29 10:21:25] - Aaron: I still completely don't understand the Monte Hall problem. -Paul
[2010-06-29 10:10:19] - Here's something that unites Macs and PCs...too bad it's not for a good cause: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/27/opinion/27kristof.html - Stephen
[2010-06-29 10:04:18] - aaron: i saw that on sd. i think it should say "exactly one of whom". "one of whom" (in english) means at least one of whom. the latter answer would be 1/2. ~a
[2010-06-29 10:01:05] - http://sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/60598/title/When_intuition_and_math_probably_look_wrong I have two children, one of whom is a son born on a Tuesday. What is the probability that I have two boys? - aaron
[2010-06-29 09:34:14] - Paul: I've used stubhub to buy tickets successfully. But not sell. -Daniel
[2010-06-29 09:28:26] - Has anybody here used stubhub.com to sell tickets? -Paul
[2010-06-29 09:15:58] - Mig: Yeah, I'm thinking of hosting the Argentina v. Germany match. -nina
[2010-06-29 08:45:27] - in more encouraging news, all the quarterfinal matchups look very tasty so far. - mig
[2010-06-29 08:42:03] - http://g.sports.yahoo.com/soccer/world-cup/news/world-cup-s-best-call-blatter-reconsiders-replay--fbintl_dw-blatter062910.html and it looks like FIFA might be wavering on its "no technology" stance. - mig
[2010-06-29 08:40:31] - daniel: actually it's not just now they are censoring replays. It's always been their official policy to not show replays on controversial plays. There is a small degree bit of merit in it, given that soccer fans can get *ahem* rowdy, but I still find the notion of not allowing replays to be silly. - mig
[2010-06-29 08:33:51] - a: But selectivity is going to be an issue. Video is a fine HTML canvass element. I'm even OK with it for ads, provided that other caveats are met. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-29 08:30:01] - true, but it's incredibly easy to block the <video /> tag. various addons already block it. ~a
[2010-06-29 08:23:12] - I've started installing variants of adblock to eliminate some of the most offensive flash crap. (Wasn't installed on this browser for this page load). But as we go to HTML5, which I'm very excited about, video content will become a non-flash staple. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-29 08:21:51] - New ad annoyance today. Load a page, video ad starts, with sound. That's already a huge no-no in my book, but I've covered it before. This one, though, had the controls blocked off. I couldn't pause/stop the video and it took me 20 seconds (of the 30 second ad) to find the mute button. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-28 23:35:55] - Can't have the home crowds see* how you messed up I guess. -- not sure how my brain typed now instead of see the first time around -Daniel
[2010-06-28 22:01:55] - Man... now I really want to do some statistical analysis of basketball. Gotta be more fun that watching the games. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-28 15:32:51] - http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/story/_/id/5335440/ce/us/fifa-censor-stadium-replays&cc=5901?ver=us Things like this don't help their case. Now they don't want replays to be shown? Can't have the home crowds now how you messed up I guess. -Daniel
[2010-06-28 15:00:11] - So it might not be that the World Cup referees are worse, but their mistake have a much bigger impact, IMHO. -Paul
[2010-06-28 14:59:29] - I think of it this way: two of the most eggregious calls in the world cup so far (US vs Slovenia and England vs Germany) have wiped out 33% and 50% of the screwed team's points. I cannot imagine even the worst NBA referee ever to have that big of an impact on an NBA game. -Paul
[2010-06-28 14:44:22] - xpovos: it could be that when a game's going to be decided by 28 points, you are smart enough to watch a different game
- aaron[2010-06-28 14:40:53] - Xpovos: Hmm I watch a fair bit of basketball and off hand I would say games decided by less than 5 are pretty rare but again I would have to look at some numbers to see which one of us is closer. -Daniel
[2010-06-28 14:39:37] - Referee Calculus! May the best refs win!
[2010-06-28 14:39:14] - The end result is then something like 95-92. Sure, there are 'blowouts' where the winning team wins by 10-20 even, but those are the exception. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-28 14:38:29] - That's actually strange to me. If you asked me (someone who doesn't enjoy watching basketball much, and so doesn't very often) what the 'average' point differential for a basketball game is, I'd definitely be hard pressed to say more than 5. It seems like every game is decided in the last 10 minutes with absurd fouls, free throws, and usually atrocious defense. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-28 14:34:50] - aaron: I want a standard deviation in there too. Then check each referee's standard deviation against the others. Those refs with the lowest standard deviations are probably the best. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-28 14:33:36] - mig: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E2%80%9310_Orlando_Magic_season just going off the first 10 games, the differences were 14, 10, 9, 1, 22, 7, 28, 12, 9, 16... so that's an av. of 12.8 points per game. that's kind of in between what we both thought it was - aaron
[2010-06-28 14:28:46] - i was looking for a more specific margin of victory statistic, but it's not very forthcoming short of going through the score of every game and manually figuring it out. - mig
[2010-06-28 14:28:01] - aaron: true, there are a few flaws with that measurement but I think over the course of a 82 game season I don't think it's that bad of a metric to use. - mig
[2010-06-28 14:19:41] - mig: wait, that statistic is different. if orlando wins 1 game 102-85 and loses one game 85-100 then that statistic would say they had won by an average of 1 point per game. the statistic we're looking for is the average differential, which would be (in that example) 16 points per game. - aaron
[2010-06-28 14:18:10] - mig: oh okay. yeah i figured olympic basketball would probably be skewed. if basketball games are that close then that's like, 4-5 baskets, that's interesting. - aaron
[2010-06-28 14:16:59] - anyway this is all a little bit moot if we're talking about chronically bad refereeing, where a single ref clearly favors one team or the other team. we're assuming here that a ref makes one bad call in a game and it swings it one way. but what if a ref makes 100% bad calls favoring one team - aaron
[2010-06-28 14:15:50] - http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/stats/byteam?cat1=Total&cat2=diff&conference=NBA&year=season_2009 differentials on NBA scoring differentials per game. Orlando was the best, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.5 points per game. New Jersey was the worst, losing to opponents on an average of 9.6 points per game. - mig
[2010-06-28 14:10:56] - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball_at_the_2008_Summer_Olympics the 2008 summer olympic basketball differences were 2, 31, 13, 26, 20, 5, 11, and 12. maybe that's atypical but i think it averages out to around 15 points per game - aaron
[2010-06-28 14:08:46] - mig: well okay. i might be wrong. maybe fouls in basketball are a lot more important than fouls in soccer. i've never seen a single foul in a basketball game inflate a team's final score by a factor of a thousand (like in the US ghana game) but maybe basketball fouls matter a lot more for very valid reasons - aaron
[2010-06-28 14:08:00] - aaron: really 10-20? I'd think it'd be closer to 5-10 points. - mig
[2010-06-28 14:07:20] - mig: i don't think the numbers are as important as what they represent. there is way more scoring and way more fouls in any given basketball games. we're talking double and triple digits. no soccer game has ever had double digits right? it's like an order of magnitude difference between the two sports - aaron
[2010-06-28 14:06:49] - aaron: 2 fouls do not eject a player in soccer. A player can accumulate as many fouls as he wants, a yellow card is more analogous to a flagrant foul or a technical foul. - mig
[2010-06-28 14:06:16] - mig: the 5% number was just a rough gauge of scoring differences. most basketball games are about 10-20 points apart, most soccer games are about 0-1 points apart. 0 divided by 20 is about 5%
- aaron[2010-06-28 14:05:24] - mig: my reasoning was that five fouls ejects a player from a basketball game while two fouls ejects a player from a soccer game. it's not exact because things like foul shots (which favor basketball) and penalty shots (which favor soccer) and the fact that cards carry over (which favor soccer) but i think it's kind of close - aaron
[2010-06-28 14:04:07] - anyway i think ideally they'd just surround the field with hundreds of cameras (i think they already do) and have a team of one thousand referees call penalties from off the field. 20 years ago that would have been absurd but i think today it's realistic. - aaron
[2010-06-28 14:01:51] - aaron: may I ask you what metrics you used to determine that? - mig
[2010-06-28 13:59:36] - paul: i agree with you. bad calls in basketball are relatively inconsequential. relative to soccer, an incorrectly called foul is 20% as consequential. an incorrectly waved off basket is 5% as consequential. - aaron
[2010-06-28 13:43:50] - daniel: I do agree with that. FIFA's responses to the officiating blunders have been pretty outrageous, and that certainly is not helping. And I will acknowledge that as low as I regard the quality of officiating in the NBA, they are certainly making efforts to improve, while FIFA for whatever reason is fighting tooth and nail. - mig
[2010-06-28 13:41:31] - mig: Oh, I know. I'm not saying bad officiating in the NBA doesn't have an affect. It definitely does. But how about a bad early call on a soccer player? That has to have an ever worse affect, right? -paul
[2010-06-28 13:40:30] - But officiating mistakes in soccer seem magnified because the consequences are so much larger. Missing an offsides penalty which leads to a goal is huge in a game with combined scores routinely under 4. Same thing with fouls when players are only allowed two before missing a game. -Paul
[2010-06-28 13:39:57] - paul: I don't necessarily agree, putting someone into foul trouble early can have a huge impact on the game. - mig
[2010-06-28 13:38:31] - The blown calls in soccer also seem to have a much bigger affect than in sports like the NBA. Incorrectly waving off a basket seems relatively inconsequential in a game that has dozens. Same thing with calling a foul when players can have 6. -Paul
[2010-06-28 13:33:26] - Daniel: Failure to explain is the biggest issue there, because it's a cultural one, I think. Americans are much more content with a result they disagree with as long as someone has put a rational explanation behind the other side. But I think it's incorrect to say FIFA doesn't want to get the call right. I think they do, but they're working against their own refs. -- X
[2010-06-28 13:30:07] - They have other refs to confer with. They can consult replay under various circumstances. They explain themsevles. FIFA seems to just shrug at all these things and doesn't seem to care about getting it right so much. -Daniel
[2010-06-28 13:29:21] - Xpovos: I was talking about how I think soccer failed to sell itself successfully to Americans when it had the chance. I think officiating contributed to that as well as flopping. I'm not going to argue that refs in other sports are 100% but it seems like they get it right more often and put themselves in better positions to get it right.
[2010-06-28 13:22:19] - Daniel: We were talking officiating. Officiating isn't about flops. If you want to talk severity of flops: yes, soccer is worse than basketball. IMO, soccer is probably the most flop-prone sport. If you're debating efficacy and consistency of the referrers, the NBA is at the nadir, not soccer. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-28 13:19:37] - daniel: it's been generally accepted that there are "superstar" calls, that fouls in the 1st quarter aren't necessarily fouls in the 4th quarter, etc. - mig
[2010-06-28 13:03:39] - "and they even openly admit to that." - huh? also I'm not sure what 100% consistent with block/charge has to do with crazy flops in soccer? I think the game of soccer came off poorly to a lot of Americans in this World Cup. I wouldn't say the nba is perfect but I would say its closer than soccer after watching. -Daniel
[2010-06-28 12:59:51] - one of those fucks being joey crawford who ejected Tim Duncan from a game with 2 tech fouls within a minute or 2 from each other, while he was on the bench the whole time, doing really nothing but chuckling to a team mate. - mig
[2010-06-28 12:56:23] - The NBA officiating has never had any semblance of consistency, and they even openly admit to that. To compound the problem they still mind-boggling employ the same incompetent fucks to officiate the finals. - mig
[2010-06-28 12:54:59] - Diving has always been an issue in soccer, but I don't think it's nearly as bad as it used to be. Aside from some very bad miscues (Kaka's ejection in Brazil/Ivory Coast and Estrada's ejection in Spain/Chile) I think refs have been fairly accurate in at least calling fouls. - mig
[2010-06-28 12:48:52] - Daniel: Convince me that any NBA ref can be 100% consistent on a block/charge foul without resorting to 'always call a block', then we'll talk. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-28 12:44:09] - Mig: You think the NBA is worse than soccer? For flopping or something else? I'm not going to pretend there isn't flopping in the nba but I think its worse in soccer with the one ref who can't be close to the action all the time. Its easier to just fall over and pretend you got punched or whatever. imo -Daniel
[2010-06-28 12:44:08] - It's two issues. Arbitrariness and willingness to debate. I don't think a willingness to debate adds a lot. I like the umpires in baseball strategy. No debate; exposition, if necessary; and ejection for excessive arguing. Soccer fails on exposition, clearly, which I think is the biggest issue. Arbitrary-wise? Yeah, basketball's much worse. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-28 12:39:32] - daniel: i guess this goes counter to mig's opinion on the NBA. but i guess in other sports (or at least american sports) it seems like the officials will often times review a play on their own accord, or deliberate, and fix the situation. whereas FIFA seems to be like, no goal for you! come back four years - aaron
[2010-06-28 12:38:35] - daniel: yeah, and it's like a lot of times in basketball they'll be in a middle of a play or something and, they'll be like "yeah we're just going to add 8 seconds to the clock, because we messed up" and usually you're like - OK - i wasn't paying a lot of attention but i guess they made a mistake, it's cool they corrected it - aaron
[2010-06-28 12:38:12] - daniel: I still think the NBA is a million times worse. - mig
[2010-06-28 12:30:01] - It seems like a big blown oppurtunity for soccer. A lot of US seemed interested in the world cup and our team this time around but now I think a lot of people (based on forums/comments very unscientific) are turned off by the almost arbitrary nature of the refs and the rampant flopping. -Daniel
[2010-06-28 12:27:02] - I wouldn't say there the norm, for some reason it's getting much worse than in previous tournaments, 2002 only had maybe one or 2 controversies and I can't even remember any from 2006. - mig
[2010-06-28 12:25:49] - At the bare minimum they need another official on the field (a lot of the blown calls were just plain missed) and probably put in some goal-line detection technology similar to hockey. - mig
[2010-06-28 12:24:09] - Some form of replays can definitely be workable, but they'd pretty much have to restrict it to goals and possibly possension on an out of bounds play. I'd find it hard to see them extending it to situations like the dissallowed goal in the England/Germany game, where play wasn't stopped. - mig
[2010-06-28 11:45:54] - Daniel: I'd agree with more refs, but not more replay. Human error and observance is part of the game, at game-speed. But every other major sport seems to have more referees. I don't want to diminish the main referee's authority, but allow him to delegate. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-28 11:44:20] - Daniel: Well, there was a missed offsides call in the Argentina/Mexico game afterwards. So.... it seems like missed calls are the standard rather than the norm.
-Paul[2010-06-28 11:41:28] - mig: wing passes to center, back to wing, BACK TO CENTER! -- Xpovos
[2010-06-28 11:37:26] - Any thoughts on the blown goal call in England v Germany? It wouldn't have made up the overall difference but I think it would have affected the game (momentum / strategy). Soccer ever going to get more refs / replay / something to get it right? -Daniel
[2010-06-28 11:03:58] - xpovos: trust me, you don't want the regular espn guys doing a soccer boadcast, you really don't. - mig
[2010-06-28 11:02:14] - a: It's not an issue of sports. Political parties and other singular nouns referring to groups of people get the singular in the US (The Republican Party is X) and the plural in the UK (Labour are Y). - Stephen
[2010-06-28 10:58:17] - stephen: does this difference affect more than just sport? are there other thing that are referred to plurally in one country and singularly in the other? ~a
[2010-06-28 10:41:11] - Also, if anybody is interested in seeing a Nationals game this upcoming Saturday (July 3rd) against the Mets, let me know. I have two tickets for $55 each. If the schedules hold up, I think Strasburg should be pitching that day too. -Paul
[2010-06-28 10:26:07] - Stephen: I watch enough hockey that foreign broadcasters isn't the issue for me anymore. It was most shocking for me though that both the commentators for the US v. England game were British. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-28 10:18:53] - Paul: Nope, it's one of the differences between American and British English. It is weird having British broadcasters on ESPN, though. - Stephen
[2010-06-28 10:02:29] - a: I'm saying it's weird because we don't do it in American English. If we're using a singular word for the team (Ghana, England, Boston, Washintgon, etc), then we tend to use "is". We don't use "are" unless the team name is plural (Celtics, Redskins, Hokies, etc). -Paul
[2010-06-28 09:55:05] - paul: weird why? because you're referring to the team in the plural? ~a
[2010-06-28 09:54:58] - pierce: true, but i think decentralizing these decisions sometimes has some better overall effects. ~a
[2010-06-28 09:47:30] - People who watched the USA/Ghana game: I thought of a good example to explain why I think saying things like "Ghana are really playing well" is weird. It's because I never heard people say things like "Boston are playing well" or "Washington are rebounding well" in the NBA. -Paul
[2010-06-28 09:34:47] - a: god, really? I have very little confidence in ISPs competence and conscience when it comes to stuCARRIER LOST... AS I WAS SAYING , VERIZON IS GREAT AND WISE - PIERCE
[2010-06-28 09:26:43] - though i heard an assertion that most phones have the ability to receive commands from the ISP to add and remove software. i still think it's dumb, but i'd at least trust [the great state of] verizon a little more than [federal] google. ~a
[2010-06-28 09:23:21] - yes, that still bothers me. it's not whether the app should be removed from the app store or whether the app should be removed from the phone. it's the the suggestion that google has the ability to remove whatever it wants remotely, silently (maybe?), and without user override (maybe?). it's a matter of security. i wouldn't let microsoft or ubuntu remove software. ~a
[2010-06-28 09:14:09] - axpovos: I understand your concern, but does it bother you even when it's something like this, where it appears to simply be a blatant attempt to hack somebody's phone (and have no redeeming value at all)? -Paul
[2010-06-26 08:15:27] - Paul: Wow. That bothers me. It was news to me too. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-26 04:32:53] - paul: yes. it bothers me. shouldn't it? google shouldn't even have the ability to automatically remove shit. i'd prefer the phone told me that i should remove the app instead of it happening automatically. although the article isn't clear: it could be that the phones did ask the users to remove them. anyways, this bothers me 1/10th the amount as the stupid stuff that happens on the apple app store. ~a
[2010-06-25 21:28:42] - a: http://news.cnet.com/8301-27080_3-20008922-245.htm "Google remotely wipes apps off Android phones". Does this bother you? -Paul
[2010-06-25 19:29:55] - This also explains why Venice moved to Venice--since everything is going through my phone. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-25 19:27:32] - dip players: sorry for the no toggle. Am in the hospital still, and the net connection here is wonky. -- Xpovos
[2010-06-25 16:43:59] - nina: the gestures you use on the track pad on an apple are similar to mouse gestures that you see in some systems (like web browsers) in windows. ~a
[2010-06-25 16:28:43] - a: yeah, i've seen that attitude by apple fanboys. it's quite disturbing. but, i think they also have a much stronger appreciation for design and weigh that more heavily when it comes to choosing hardware/platforms. -nina
[2010-06-25 16:27:41] - aaron: i agree, but i'm afraid i also agree that we're both biased. apple lovers discount the restrictiveness and focus on the success of apple because of (instead of in spite of) their restrictiveness. it's almost like they think the restrictiveness is a benefit and not a drawback. they see it as being protected from the harmful parts of society. ~a
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