prev <-> next
[2018-09-14 11:13:12] - a: Wait, aren't people still having conniption fits? Not sure I understand your point... -Paul
[2018-09-14 11:10:46] - i read this online and didn't come up with it myself, but found it interesting. if trump had said the government had lied about the 3k people who died on september 11th, and that they actually didn't die, we'd all be having conniption fits. but it's almost exactly the same number of people that died in puerto rico in the hurricane and now trump is claiming it's lies. or that they were going to die anyways. i'm so confused by this. ~a
[2018-09-14 11:08:50] - RAWR! I'm generally pro gender equity. Take that Dewey and Travis! -Daniel
[2018-09-14 11:06:18] - uhh because some of you have a girl first-child and some of you have a boy first-child. fight! ~a
[2018-09-14 11:05:48] - a: Because we have kids? -Paul
[2018-09-14 10:30:03] - "men whose first child is a girl are more likely to support policies that promote gender equity than men whose first child is a boy." daniel, paul, andrew, travis, and dewey need to fight this one out. ~a
[2018-09-13 17:12:29] - "voight-kampff test" nice reference
~a[2018-09-13 16:43:20] - https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/tommy-maranges/inhuman-conditions-a-game-of-cops-and-robots "inhuman conditions", a new deduction game for 2 players where one of you an investigator trying to determine whether the other player is a robot by asking open-ended questions. ...basically, "voight-kampff test" the board game - aaron
[2018-09-13 13:53:21] - study that came out in question. 3000 deaths (95% confidence interval of 2658-3290 deaths) already has deaths due to old-age removed from the numbers. wtf. ~a
[2018-09-13 13:52:12] - a: thanks! good video explanation of the mirror thing. was a good watch - aaron
[2018-09-13 12:12:36] - the last hurricane, sigh. ~a
[2018-09-13 12:10:53] - here she comes. ~a
[2018-09-13 12:10:33] - Paul: Oo I am up in the stock challenge. Thats exciting. Andrew and Adrian still crushing it though. Kudos to them. The results of these so far seem to be that Adrian should be in charge of any group investments
-Daniel[2018-09-12 17:17:12] - a: Yeah, I was buying (and selling too late) AMD back then too. That's why I was and still am so gun-shy now. Been burned before. -Paul
[2018-09-12 16:51:19] - amd is volatile as shit. in 2006 i bought at 39. ~a
[2018-09-12 16:26:10] - amd = ridiculous. -Paul
[2018-09-12 12:26:25] - aaron/xpovos: as of 2 hours ago, it looks like they're predicting its path is now a little bit further south. unless their predictions change again, i don't think we'll have anything to worry about (save a bit of extra rain). ~a
[2018-09-12 11:50:07] - I read some stuff about tweaking the voltage settings for memory, but my machine is already overclocked some on a level beyond my comprehension, so I don't want to screw with that. -Paul
[2018-09-12 11:49:39] - Update: I tried the "good" DIMM in the "bad" slot and computer wouldn't boot. Put that "good" DIMM back in the "good" slot and got the weird configuration error which resolved itself after I entered bios, changed nothing, and exited. So pretty clear the problem is with the slot and maybe my motherboard in general. -Paul
[2018-09-12 10:29:52] - aaron: back to this lovely puzzle. i feel like we have to talk about this here every 4 years or so. you can watch the video on 2x. i like the transparent glass he used with the CAT text. also the example of the mirror-lake that flips the mountain. ~a
[2018-09-11 22:02:27] - Not doing anything special, although I am worried about some of the trees around the house toppling over due to the waterlogged ground. -Paul
[2018-09-11 19:04:20] - aaron: This will be bad, but not terrible around here. Localized flooding in the usual bad spots. Some down trees and tree limbs that will cause power outages. So, no I'm not doing anything "special." Making sure I'm stocked on essentials if it goes worse than expected and I can't get out for a day or two is about it. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-11 18:02:06] - anybody doing anything in particular to prepare for the hurricane? think it'll be bad? - aaron
[2018-09-11 14:55:23] - Xpovos: Maybe? Power Supply should be fine (750W), but maybe some motherboard setting is wrong? -Paul
[2018-09-11 14:53:17] - Voltage issues? How's your power supply? -- Xpovos
[2018-09-11 13:42:48] - a: I suppose. I kinda wish it didn't work at all now. Now, I have hope I can fix it somehow.
-Paul[2018-09-11 13:39:16] - huh. well yeah it sounds like you've still learned that it's probably the dimm and not the slot. ~a
[2018-09-11 13:37:35] - a: Okay, well, I tried removing the functional one and replacing it with the suspect one. Not sure what to make of the results. An error was thrown at boot-up (wish I wrote it down), so I browsed through the Bios, didn't change anything, exited, and it proceeded to boot up fine. -Paul
[2018-09-11 11:31:02] - paul: "you're saying I won't be able to get my money back by returning it?" no that's not what i mean. but i guess if your intention is not to replace the broken one, i guess it doesn't matter today. i'd probably put a memo-sticky in the broken slot that says "broken?" so i didn't waste time in the future. ~a
[2018-09-11 10:51:34] - a: I can do that to confirm that the DIMM is bad, but (as you said), I don't know if it matters. Why is it useful info to me? I guess you're saying I won't be able to get my money back by returning it? -Paul
[2018-09-11 10:37:59] - paul: yes i think i understood that, but maybe i am confused. why can't you put the probably-bad-dimm (dimm #4) into a probably-good-slot (slot #3?) to confirm the probably-bad dimm is actually bad? maybe you're saying that if you have a broken slot, it won't matter? i agree with that, but the information on what is broken will be useful to you. ~a
[2018-09-11 10:32:27] - a: Hmmm, I have four slots. 2 of them were already filled with 2gb DIMMs. I bought two more to upgrade my machine from 4gb to 8gb, but that involves having a 2gb DIMM in every slot. I don't have an extra one really if one is broken. -Paul
[2018-09-11 10:32:00] - also 2019 will definitely see an extended increase in the red bar. i actually joined a biking team. ~a
[2018-09-11 10:30:29] - my use of cars and bikes between 2005 and 2018. (for the car, i'm approximating my minutes of usage solely based on the odometer. for the bike since 2010, i actually have both distance and time information: i'm including total elapsed time, not just rolling time) ~a
[2018-09-11 10:26:26] - paul: yes, which is why you should switch them. put it in a slot you are pretty sure works. i mean, it's what i would do. ~a
[2018-09-11 10:13:13] - a: Yeah, but if nothing is wrong with the DIMM.... I still don't see how I can use it because the alternative is that something is wrong with my memory slot or for whatever reason my board can't support that extra DIMM, right? -Paul
[2018-09-11 10:00:03] - paul: i'd swap them so you know whether to return the dimm or not. if you return the dimm and it turns out there was nothing wrong with the dimm, you'll be pretty sad. ~a
[2018-09-10 20:39:54] - OMG. I hadn't checked the stock market challenges in awhile. I'm losing to Daniel now for 2018!? The shame! -Paul
[2018-09-10 19:50:47] - a: So, I tried adding that second DIMM and it pulled the same stunt as before. Is it wrong to be lazy and not swap them to test to see if the problem is the DIMM or maybe my memory slot of some weird voltage problem powering 4 DIMMs and just return it by telling them it didn't work? -Paul
[2018-09-10 15:39:03] - paul: yep, np. i've done the same thing with hard-drives too. i hate it how sometimes i tell my bios which hard-drive to boot from, and it totally ignores that and boots from whichever drive it feels like booting from. ~a
[2018-09-10 15:32:07] - nova is basically the best place to live if you wanna live a long time. maybe a few parts of colorado and alaska (wow) are better. ~a
[2018-09-10 15:19:29] - a: btw, thanks for the suggestion. One DIMM in (6gb of RAM, yay!) and it's working. Now I guess I try the other one again and maybe swap to see if it is the DIMM or the slot that is busted. -Paul
[2018-09-10 15:18:51] - a: Yeah, I guess I shouldn't have put correction in quotes. I didn't necessarily mean a 20% drop or anything, more like a reversion to the mean (in terms of historical P/E ratios) which could just be in the form of slowed growth. -Paul
[2018-09-10 15:02:18] - paul: haha, right. true true. i guess i'm just saying i don't predict a correction. i predict a high chance of "market returns to be sub-par". ~a
[2018-09-10 14:54:41] - a: "that correction isn't a for-sure thing" Is there anything in investing that is a sure thing?
-Paul[2018-09-10 14:46:48] - xpovos: nm. i realize what you mean now. yeah, i'm not sure what causes that. ~a
[2018-09-10 14:43:27] - "trifurcated path here" yeah that's because there are only a few cases in the dataset (1910-2018 minus 10 years) that p/e ratios were super high. ~a
[2018-09-10 14:00:06] - a: Fun graph. I'd definitely like to see a 20-30 or even 40 year version rather than just 10. Meanwhile, I'll note that the graph is noisy, but there almost seems to be a trifurcated path here. There's almost enough in each of those tendrils to perhaps make some kind of case for different series giving different results. If we could understand the underlying differences that cause those different series. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-10 13:44:43] - anyways, this is the first time i've seen anybody look at the shiller p/e overall market ratio and tie that to future returns. kinda an interesting concept. ~a
[2018-09-10 13:41:41] - per year. ~a
[2018-09-10 13:41:30] - "over the next decade or so?" yeah well that correction isn't a for-sure thing. basically over the next decade or so, i'd expect the market to go down 6% or also maybe go up 7%?
~a[2018-09-10 13:39:38] - a: And so we can expect market returns to be sub-par during that time? -Paul
[2018-09-10 13:39:14] - a: I think I've heard similar things on Fool podcasts. The basic idea is that the market is kinda "overvalued" in the sense that many companies are trading for higher P/E ratios than they historically do? And as a result, the market is likely to "correct" back to the average over the next decade or so? -Paul
[2018-09-10 13:30:37] - anyways, it could be none of this matters to you if you care about annualized returns of 20 years or 30 years. basically 10 year annualized returns are meaningless if that's the case. maybe i need to make one of those graphs for 20 years or 30 years? ~a
[2018-09-10 13:28:01] - the "average" caep is ~6.5%. ~a
[2018-09-10 13:24:32] - paul/daniel: worded differently, in the history of our stock market, every time we've had these current p/e ratios, we've gotten a 10-year return of between -6% to +7% (per year). not exactly comforting especially when you add in ~3% inflation: 10 year return of -9% to +4% (per year). ~a
[2018-09-10 13:22:01] - (continued) this other graph tries to look into the future based on the p/e ratio. first of all, it's using the opposite of p/e ratio: it's using e/p ratio. which for the whole stock market is about 1/33 = 3% right now. and you'll notice a *LOT* of noise in the dataset (1910-2018), but there is a trend. ~a
[2018-09-10 13:21:59] - paul/daniel: omg, found something interesting. price-earnings ratios and how the turn into future returns as a market as a whole?! first of all, the P/E ratio (cyclically adjusted) for the whole stock market is about 33 right now. (continued). ~a
[2018-09-10 13:19:13] - paul: yeah try that. especially if there's a problem with just one of the dimms, that should help you debug which one is broken. i've done this before when i had a dimm that *would* let me boot: but would eventually bsod (in windows) and kernel panic (in linux). ~a
[2018-09-10 12:53:28] - a: No, I never see anything on the screen in order to enter the bios. I hadn't considered just putting one DIMM in. I'm stuck in the old ways of thinking they need to be paired up. I'll try that. Thanks. -Paul
[2018-09-10 12:41:05] - also, if not, use the other memory dimm. sometimes one of the dimms is broken and the other is fine. ~a
[2018-09-10 12:40:35] - paul: some bios systems will let you do a "memory check". do you have one of those computers that have that? is it getting far enough into the boot process to let you do a memory check? if not, can you put in just one of the memory dimms and see if it'll let you do a "memory check"? ~a
[2018-09-10 12:31:52] - The second time it kept restarting every 10 seconds or so, again never showing anything but a blank screen. Anybody have any thoughts on what might be wrong? -Paul
[2018-09-10 12:31:25] - Ugh. Got two new sticks of memory, installed it in my machine, and now it won't boot up. I'm almost positive the type and speed of the memory match what's in there and I tried pulling them out and re-seating them, but still nothing. The first time it turned on and never showed anything but a blank screen... -Paul
[2018-09-07 13:51:56] - sure? or maybe it's just like a random confluence of things. ~a
[2018-09-07 13:38:11] - a: Yeah, so I guess that's why I am confused. Maybe it's because Gorsuch was replacing a "conservative" justice and Kavanaugh is replacing a "centrist"? -Paul
[2018-09-07 13:14:17] - yes. i don't think the gorsuch hearings got as much press. for instance i didn't know about them until they were over. ~a
[2018-09-07 13:03:16] - a: Yeah, but shouldn't that have been for Gorsuch then? -Paul
[2018-09-07 12:20:43] - well they're paul's words. ~a
[2018-09-07 12:19:23] - a: Replace "opposition" with "rhetoric" and it's a little more accurate? - mig
[2018-09-07 11:29:32] - paul: "just decided to kinda be jerks about" maybe has something to do with the "more intense opposition"? ~a
[2018-09-07 11:24:30] - as a personal aside - jesus christ Cory Booker, I am so disappoint. - mig
[2018-09-07 11:06:55] - a: But even still, I think Garland's opposition was different. The Republicans had the majority and just decided to kinda be jerks about it and that was it. I don't recall there being dozens of protesters being arrested or theatrics by Senators releasing stuff that maybe or maybe is not classified... -Paul
[2018-09-07 11:05:04] - a: Heh, I actually was thinking about Garland because I initially phrased it as "last 3 justices" and then I figured somebody would bring up Garland, so I called out the specific names I was thinking of. -Paul
[2018-09-07 10:52:15] - paul: it's weird you left garland off your list. there has been less intense opposition to him compared to garland. somehow that didn't even get hearings? not quite sure the full story there. many people think kavanaugh will be part of a suit that overturns roe v wade based on a lot of things he's said. ~a
[2018-09-07 10:40:33] - Second (and third?) questions: I haven't been following the Kavanaugh hearings and everything around it too much, but it does seem like there has been a lot more intense opposition to him than there was for Gorcush, Kagan, and Sotomayor. Does anybody else feel the same way? Any theories as to why? -Paul
[2018-09-07 10:24:19] - Xpovos: Yeah, I had times at work where gmail was taking a full gig of memory by itself for some reason. Thanks. -Paul
[2018-09-07 10:17:34] - As long as you're not looking to replace your computer in the next year, I'd wager that's a solid investment. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-07 10:17:19] - Going from 4 to 8 will probably be good for you. Browsers are chewing up so much memory these days that even moderate web browsing can be an impact. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-07 09:47:01] - It looks like I have four slots (let's say they are numbered 1,2,3,4 in order) and have 2 sticks of memory in slots 1 and 3 (oddly enough). It looks like I can get 2 sticks of 2GB ram of the same type (DDR3, 1600MHz) on amazon for under $30. Does that sound like a reasonable investment? My computer is probably memory starved, right? -Paul
[2018-09-07 09:44:08] - I checked the documentation of my computer, and it says I have "4GB DDR3 1600MHz Digital Storm Certified Performance Series" as my memory. (Digital Storm was the company that put my machine together). I'm about 90% positive from eyeballing my motherboard that I have extra slots where I could add more memory. -Paul
[2018-09-07 09:42:48] - Random computer question. I've had no trouble with my desktop (which is getting pretty old at this point) until recently, where it sometimes freezes for a few seconds and tabs in chrome reload (losing work I had in them) when I navigate away and navigate back. Almost positive the issue is the 4GB of RAM I have. -Paul
[2018-09-06 13:38:28] - a: from a legal perspective, I don't believe so. Unsure if there was any civil consequences for either of them. - mig
[2018-09-06 13:28:50] - mig: (i promise i'm not trying to make a point, this is unrelated) did jason kessler or richard spencer see any punishment for their planning of the charlottesville rally? the rally in 2017 did not "get out of hand". it was designed to be out of hand from the get-go. i feel like there was probably some culpability there for the dozens of other cases of assault. maybe the murder as well? anyways, i just assume they weren't punished. ~a
[2018-09-06 13:28:11] - mig: punching nazis is the right thing to do (maybe?). but it's also illegal. you gotta be like king and take your punishment. ~a
[2018-09-06 13:25:52] - mig: i agree it's a dangerous precedent. ~a
[2018-09-06 12:13:45] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/charlottesville-man-fined-1-after-assault-on-white-nationalist-in-2017/2018/09/05/14f750bc-b14b-11e8-b905-88e thoughts? this feels like kind of a dangerous precedent, and I'm not sure the jury fully understood the potential consequences. - mig
[2018-09-06 08:56:29] - a: yeah that was the first thing i did, was i was like... "yeah, integers up to what limit!?" since it was such a huge regex i thought it was brute forcing something but... yeah there's seemingly no limit - aaron
[2018-09-05 16:19:50] - daniel: "ever increasing block chain size" yeah uhhh, i think this part (at face only) was already solved by the whitepaper in 2008. before the reference implementation was released in 2009. section 7: reclaiming disk space. "4mb per year". not a big deal imo. this was actually even *partially* implemented by *some of* the nodes. ~a
[2018-09-05 16:07:49] - a: I don't feel knowledgeable / intelligent enough to espouse a confirmation technique. Just that I've read that POW has a problem/limitation/ downside of ever increasing block chain size that hasn't really been solved yet. -Daniel
[2018-09-05 15:58:14] - daniel: please ignore my last message. i think most of it isn't true. i was forgetting a bunch of stuff. anyways, i'll replace it with: "ok, yeah sure". any thoughts on what confirmation technique you prefer? ~a
[2018-09-05 15:31:54] - daniel: i don't think i can answer your question easily. if you have something for me to read, i'll read it, but i think i lack context to reply to that. POS (proof of stake), a common alternative system used, would still have the same power consumption per transaction and time per transaction profile (i think). ~a
[2018-09-05 15:23:14] - From the link: "Low Energy Proof of Work" so maybe he knows something I don't. -Daniel
[2018-09-05 15:20:53] - a: My knowledge of crypto's is not extensive but isn't proof of work falling out of favor since it will lead to ever increasing block chain size which means more power consumption and time to process? -Daniel
[2018-09-05 15:16:53] - a friend of mine from virginia tech created a cryptocurrency. there are two things that make this one unique: 1. he created it from scratch. (entirely in java). most cryptocurrencies are not created from scratch. usually they copy around each-others codebases and change small details. 2. it uses an IO bound proof of work, which makes it more resistant to ASICs. ~a
[2018-09-05 14:57:15] - aaron: the thing that interests me is it appears to work for all (positive) integers. there's no limit (that i've found yet) to its max size: "1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 2222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222 3333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333"
~a[2018-09-05 14:55:26] - aaron: do you know how it works? i haven't tried to suss out what it's doing yet. ~a
[2018-09-05 14:31:30] - haha i saw that too. a commenter pointed out that it doesn't work with zero. ~a
[2018-09-05 13:54:56] - https://regex101.com/r/YCTmCs/3 regex which matches A B C if A+B=C - aaron
[2018-09-05 13:30:26] - a: I watched. 99% of the headlines indeed. A ton of ink spilled over absolutely nothing. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-05 10:54:04] - taking away parking spaces is not for the faint of heart. 4m video interview of what happened in nyc. ~a
[2018-09-05 10:22:22] - yes, good point. kinda a fluke though if you look at its current market cap. also, petrochina isn't exactly privately owned. ~a
[2018-09-05 09:53:31] - a: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/petrochina-did-not-fare-well-after-reaching-1-trillion-in-market-cap.html Somebody corrected me on Twitter a few days ago: There was a company that hit $1 trillion before Apple: PetroChina. -Paul
[2018-09-05 09:00:53] - Meh, maybe it is yearly. Chart says since 2004. Trying to pin things better it seems to line up pretty well with a end-of-year search spike. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-05 08:59:25] - I want to know more about those periodic spikes! They're not yearly, because there's seven in the ~2010-2015 bracket. But they're close to yearly. And they seem very periodic. I'd think holiday sales (Christmas/etc.) would be a major driver? But the imprecise year makes me wonder. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-04 17:02:04] - paul: looks like amazon hit the 1T market cap line today (for like 2 seconds, not long enough to show up on the 1D chart). so now two companies, wow! ~a
[2018-09-04 13:35:20] - hddvd was discontinued like 10 years ago. ~a
[2018-09-04 13:34:44] - oh of course. ~a
[2018-09-04 13:21:36] - a: yeah I would say bluray wasn't as successful as its predecessors but I would still say it won vs HD-DVD. -Daniel
[2018-09-04 12:45:18] - daniel: yes, i think it lost to streaming. googling for data to back this up was pretty miserable though. i found this, but that was about it. ~a
[2018-09-04 11:43:45] - Daniel: I think it's fair that Bluray won over HD-DVD. But it's probably a stretch to think that the format was a runaway success. People moved very quickly on to streaming. That said, Blurays are the format for semi-permanent storage still, so they're the winner there. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-04 11:28:07] - a: You think bluray lost? -Daniel
[2018-09-04 11:18:30] - xpovos: yeah, i was very surprised by the true winner of the hd-dvd vs bluray wars. i thought (and hoped) bluray would win. it turns out they both lost? ~a
[2018-09-04 10:36:03] - I love digging into those random past messages. Today's is from 2006 and a few messages later, I dropped this gem. "[2006-04-25 10:58:39] - a: OK. I see your point, but it still is yet to be proven that HD-DVD will actually take off. It may be another laserdisc. -- Xpovos" -- Xpovos
[2018-09-03 19:49:23] - a: It's crazy to me how much Amazon has grown in just the past few years. People tend to think the big companies tend to slow down in terms of growth, but not Amazon (or Apple). -Paul
[2018-09-03 15:09:52] - paul: one interesting side effect of amazon's stock doing so well recently, is that jeff bezos is now the richest person in the world. three years ago he wasn't even in the top 10. ~a
[2018-08-31 10:21:18] - a: https://i.imgur.com/P30DU8X.png -- Xpovos
[2018-08-30 16:49:10] - xpovos: yep, there are no silver bullets. baby steps. there are so many people that hate change though. even if it improves peoples lives on the aggregate. ~a
[2018-08-30 12:21:43] - a: If you want to increase overall throughput, cars are bad, but so are a lot of other options. I'd personally love to never have to drive in D.C. again so I'm open to a lot of suggestions even if it means eliminating cars. But practically there aren't a lot of good options. -- Xpovos
[2018-08-30 10:58:54] - "lester holt got caught fudging my tape on russia, they were hurt badly". so to avoid getting caught in my own echo chamber, can somebody tell me what he's talking about? ~a
[2018-08-30 10:07:26] - mig: 1. yes, i agree. i also found it interesting (so did a commenter in the article) and problematic that he didn't discuss commuters coming from outside the city. 2. yeah, he never said he proposed removing all of the roads, just changing them in size and shape. so i think it's ok? are you ok with changing the size and shape of the roads? maybe removing a few car lanes if it increases overall throughput? ~a
[2018-08-30 09:58:47] - a: sure not everyone drives, but a lot of people do, and a lot of people who don't live in DC end up driving in. - mig
[2018-08-29 22:25:33] - "if we stop operating under the inaccurate assumption that everybody drives, it becomes a lot easier to build roads that prioritize moving people safely instead of moving cars quickly." (context: dc proper). link. ~a
[2018-08-29 10:48:15] - paul: my earnings on both challenges are the same (21%). also both of my botom4s are the same (12%). also both of your bottom4s are the same. ~a
[2018-08-27 10:00:35] - or like, "we need to phrase this e-mail delicately so we don't offend any gay people," versus "we need to phrase this e-mail delicately so we don't offend any gays". synonyms sort of. but different subtext - aaron
[2018-08-27 09:51:25] - mig: i think if you call them "hispanics" or "latinos" (the noun) it's a little taboo. like, "hey did you finish interviewing that hispanic today??" versus, "hey did you finish interviewing that hispanic programmer today?" it is a subtle distinction but yeah i think it's off-putting - aaron
[2018-08-24 15:23:25] - those aren't monosyllabic. ~a
[2018-08-24 15:03:42] - aaron: "reduce a person's identity to a single characteristic, or are monosyllabic are terms to avoid.", does that mean referring to someone as "Hispanic" or "Latino" are taboo now? - mig
[2018-08-24 13:55:13] - i think a part of it comes down to wanting to be discrete about matters of gender or sex, and a part of it is not wanting your identity to be reduced to a single adjective. and playing devil's advocate, maybe a part of it is wanting to be complex and special and to smugly remind people that they don't understand you as well as you understand yourself. but... really, most people just want to blend in - aaron
[2018-08-24 13:48:05] - paul: there's no real rule for it. but in general the more literal, objectifying and convenient a term is the more offensive it is. or said another way, things that are simple to understand, reduce a person's identity to a single characteristic, or are monosyllabic are terms to avoid. if you do can not spell or understand the term without consulting a dictionary it is probably OK - aaron
[2018-08-24 13:15:18] - Paul: I get what you are saying but on some level thats how all of language works. Like "Fuck you" is only offensive because we've all kind of agreed it is (except when its not). -Daniel
[2018-08-24 13:09:16] - aaron: That seems so backwards to me. I wonder how these things are determined. I can't imagine all people are of the same mind on this. Couldn't one person's preferred term be offensive to somebody else? -Paul
[2018-08-24 12:10:54] - yeah i was pretty sure "cross dresser" and "drag queen" were OK terms for one thing, and "transsexual" and "transgender" were OK terms for a different thing. "transvestite" was an insensitive term - aaron
[2018-08-24 10:03:13] - aaron: https://www.glaad.org/reference/transgender I can't remember where we fell on this last night, but I thought there was skepticism that "cross-dresser" was the wrong term. Not according to GLAAD, I guess. -Paul
[2018-08-23 15:54:11] - so *totally* devil's advocate here (and feeling like almost literally devil's advocate this time): maybe trump means you shouldn't be able to get leniency on a charge / plea deal in exchange for working with prosecutors . . . because people will be encouraged to make up lies? i mean, obviously it's a bit of a stretch, but it's at least consistent with his current arguments. ~a
[2018-08-23 15:36:39] - that and it's also established he has a pretty infantile perception of how government and laws work. - mig
[2018-08-23 15:31:58] - a: probably because there isn't any logic to it? I think there's a pretty clear track record of Trump spouting off nonsense without much thought being put into it. - mig
[2018-08-23 15:21:10] - "crazy" . . . because i imagine the 40% of likely voters who still support this president would have also bought into the "witch hunt" thing. but that is apparently not the case with duncan. ~a
[2018-08-23 15:18:16] - paul: so, an interesting (but ultimately useless) tid-bit of information. the one juror (paula duncan) in the manafort case that came out and told her story with fox news was a fervent trump supporter. but she wasn't the hold-out. which means that duncan was a trump supporter and still voted guilty on all 18 charges. which seems crazy to me. ~a
[2018-08-23 14:52:36] - trump thinks flipping should be illegal. what the what? does his brain even have a filter? who says that? what is he even arguing? that people should be able to hide crimes? i'm totally not even able to follow his thought process here. and then to say it in public. wtf. ~a
[2018-08-23 14:18:44] - anyways, what the one-juror thing means is that if they do have a new trial, it won't be that much better for him. ~a
[2018-08-23 14:17:09] - yeah i went to the alexandria courthouse twice. the first time they were like, peace out, we got enough people and the second time they be like: he took a plea deal at the 11th hour, so, peace out. in arlington, "never mind" before i even had to show up! each time my juror experience gets shorter. ~a
[2018-08-23 14:08:05] - a: No idea. I've never gotten very close to being a juror myself. -Paul
[2018-08-23 13:46:13] - paul: yeah it was in alexandria. i've almost been a juror there i think. maybe? i'm not sure if they have a separate building for federal stuff and local stuff or not. actually, i'm not even sure if i was going to be part of a federal jury or a local one. do they even tell you in advance? ~a
[2018-08-23 13:44:26] - a: Ah, okay. You're right, I totally had thought he was convicted on 17. Shows you how little I have been following it (despite the trial happening minutes from my work, I think). -Paul
[2018-08-23 13:44:01] - paul: but to answer your question literally, i hear you. why didn't the pro-trump (or "witch hunt" believer at least) go all hung-jury on all 18 charges? yeah, i follow that argument. i can only guess. maybe because those 8 charges were *more* blatant? and *more* obviously proven? in short: i don't know for sure. ~a
[2018-08-23 13:42:42] - paul: you messed up the numbers some i think. i think you mean 8. the change from that one juror went from 18 to 8. (10 were hung-jury because of one juror). ~a
[2018-08-23 13:36:40] - a: I don't think I worded that right. If they were so hell-bent on being pro-Trump (or whatever), then why did they vote in favor of the other 17? -Paul
[2018-08-23 13:36:12] - a: I'm a little confused. Convicting him on 17 out of 18 wasn't enough to make you think this person had no grasp of the facts?
-Paul[2018-08-23 13:16:33] - one juror prevented jury from convicting manafort on all 18 counts. hah. seems about right. you yell "witch hunt" enough times, someone will believe you enough to even ignore all of the fucking facts. ~a
[2018-08-23 12:43:30] - a: Also, if we want to complain about Senators wielding disproportionate power relative to the population of their state, don't we have to talk about direct election of Senators and how that might play a role? I'm not sure Senators were ever meant to be a slightly different version of a Representative like they are now. -Paul
[2018-08-23 12:41:24] - a: But, anecdotally, I've totally heard people talk about voting (or not voting) depending on whether or not they think the race in their state would be tight. Isn't that a pretty well established thing? People are pretty fickle when it comes to voting, and if you can convince them that their vote is "wasted" somehow, that can be powerful. -Paul
[2018-08-23 12:39:59] - a: I thought it was a lot more interesting than the later part, but that was a low bar.
I might be more interested in an objective look at how our system differs from a true democracy in terms of Senators and the Electoral College and whatnot if it wasn't being used in such a partisan manner. -Paul[2018-08-23 12:36:06] - "how many republicans in heavy blue states don't vote because their vote doesn't matter" does this actually happen in real life? like are you talking about a substantial number of people that would have voted if they lived in a swing state but aren't because they're not in a swing state? i mean, i get it, thinkprogress isn't exactly a website i should have posted here. but i thought the first few paragraphs were interesting. ~a
[2018-08-23 12:24:15] - and finally, how many individual voters are being double counted. Again, in heavy blue red states, there's definitely voters who voted for both senators. So simply taking both senators vote totals for those states at face value is downright silly. - mig
[2018-08-23 12:22:18] - there are obvious problems with the + 20 million votes figure. The most obvious being is how many republicans in heavy blue states don't vote because their vote doesn't matter (same question for heavy red states too)? Also, since the elections Senate seats are staggered (~1/3 of the seats are up every 2 years), so they're aggregating vote totals across different elections spanning 2-6 years ...
[2018-08-23 12:13:42] - mig: Right, I think the strongest reasonable case I can make for overturning Roe v Wade involves Thomas, Alito, Kavanaugh and Gorsuch in the affirmative, although I don't even think Gorsuch would. Like you said, I think Roberts is almost certainly not going to overturn something that has been so long established. -Paul
[2018-08-23 11:52:46] - wow this TP article is the sourest of grapes. - mig
[2018-08-23 11:50:09] - I'm not even sure Roberts would vote in favor of repealing Roe V. Wade. - mig
[2018-08-23 11:44:35] - a: I consider it a 10% thing. Maybe 20%. -Paul
[2018-08-23 11:42:45] - paul: "that seems very far from a certainty to me" far from certainty, sure. but do you consider it a likely outcome? like would you consider it 50% thing? ~a
[2018-08-23 11:37:23] - Oh, nevermind, they go even further off the deep-end after that.
-Paul[2018-08-23 11:35:23] - Also, "If Kavanaugh is confirmed, the Supreme Court’s new majority will kill Roe v. Wade." Really? I can understand being worried about that and trying to create hysteria around it to solidify opposition, but that seems very far from a certainty to me and certainly not something that merits such a straightforward statement. -Paul
[2018-08-23 11:31:48] - a: It also seems kinda stupid. Kagan got more "popular votes" because she also just flat out got more Senators voting for her confirmation. If we want to take this one step further, the entire government is a minority coalition since most people didn't vote for them (https://brilliantmaps.com/did-not-vote/). -Paul
[2018-08-23 11:27:59] - a: Uh, that's a really awkward and indirect way to try to de-legitimize a justice. Minority coalition? Also known as majority vote. Popular vote loser? Electoral vote winner. Whether you are a fan of representative democracy and the electoral college or not, that's how the rules work. -Paul
[2018-08-23 11:17:35] - paul: yeah i've been on a bit of a tear. no more second places for this guy. ~a
[2018-08-23 11:15:56] - "the 45 senators who opposed gorsuch received nearly 20 million more votes than the 54 senators who supported him" gorsuch is unique, in that he is the only person ever confirmed to the supreme court by a minority coalition after being nominated by a popular vote loser. ~a
[2018-08-23 11:12:27] - a: Every time I think I'm having a good day in the market and I look at the stock market challenge, you're having just a tiny bit better day than I am. I am up 0.7 to your 0.9 in one and 1.0 to your 1.1 in another. *Shakes Fist* -Paul
[2018-08-23 10:11:17] - life, man. life. ~a
[2018-08-22 18:27:27] - I was looking at NY. I guess? Unfortunately I don't think I can do it at all. That's a really busy time. If I'd known sooner, maybe. I think my life is just too busy to do this kind of thing much these days. -- Xpovos
[2018-08-22 14:40:32] - jesus those are nowhere near us. i guess you're looking at NJ? quite a haul, but since my sister is moving to (that part of) NJ, maybe i have another reason to visit her. ~a
[2018-08-22 14:22:32] - So... https://i.imgur.com/JDUsG7C.png -- Xpovos
[2018-08-22 13:41:37] - damn. ~a
[2018-08-22 13:38:44] - a: Still a majority and not a minority, though. -Paul
[2018-08-22 13:37:00] - you're a hot dad. so that's like 2/3rds of a thing! ~a
[2018-08-22 12:45:07] - https://submissions.cardsagainsthumanity.com/ Anybody else see this? I don't know how exactly you calculate the hours worked on writing cards, and I don't consider myself from a historically marginalized community, a person of color, an immigrant, a member of the LGBTQ+ community or a hot single dad, so I'm probably out, but maybe others would be interested? -Paul
[2018-08-22 12:29:50] - Edward's defense was that he was making the payoffs to spare his family embarassment, as ridiculous as it was, kind of work, and I imagine Trump would take a similar tact. - mig
[2018-08-22 12:28:40] - Although laws may have changed since then to make it more clear. Though the key will be proving Trump's intent. You have Cohen's confession as some corroboration, but that's probably not enough. - mig
[2018-08-22 12:27:55] - The only issue with that is that there was a very similar case involving John Edwards. At the time it was considered a pretty novel legal theory to consider payoffs to a mistress as a "campaign contribution". - mig
[2018-08-22 12:25:23] - a: the strongest thing right now is the unreported campaign contribution as a potential crime that can directly linked to Trump. Personally I don't think republicans are going to move unless there's a indictment with a strong compelling case. - mig
[2018-08-22 10:48:09] - who knows. i never thought we would see like 100%ish of the senior staff behind bars. this is fairly unprecedented. ~a
[2018-08-22 10:45:01] - a: I have no idea. I haven't been following this story at all. Is there any reason to think it goes before an impeachment committee without control of congress changing? -Paul
[2018-08-22 10:11:46] - paul: sure. my question is, *which* clearly illegal thing trump did will go before an impeachment committee. and will it happen before or after the congress potentially changes in january? ~a
[2018-08-22 10:04:28] - a: And I'm not saying that is what you are saying, but my point is more that there is a lot of range when it comes to collusion. -Paul
[2018-08-22 09:53:12] - But at the same time, I think the idea that Trump is some Manchurian candidate that Putin has installed after decades of careful grooming (or whatever the latest conspiracy theory is) is unlikely to be true. -Paul
[2018-08-22 09:52:11] - Maybe some of the difference of opinion is because collusion isn't some binary thing but is a sliding scale of grey? For example, I wouldn't at all be surprised if some of Trump's advisors (or family members) met with Russians to discuss getting intel/dirt on Clinton's campaign. (Maybe that's even already been proven, I haven't been following things). -Paul
[2018-08-21 18:29:22] - mig: you're right. i've only quoted it once though. ~a
[2018-08-21 18:28:40] - a: the statement you keep quoting me on was specifically in the context of the allegations regrading Russians. - mig
[2018-08-21 18:12:45] - i feel like we're splitting hairs if it turns out the russians weren't involved in trump's felonies. ~a
[2018-08-21 18:02:12] - trump's own lawyer testified under oath that he worked to silence two people in "coordination" with trump in order to change the outcome of an election. ~a
[2018-08-21 17:51:29] - a: What we do have however, have is a potential direct link to something illegal involving Trump in the form of a unreported campaign contribution. Is that worthy to reach impeachment levels? maybe? But again, doesn't really have anything to do with the grand Russian conspiracy. - mig
[2018-08-21 17:49:30] - a: if we are specifically talking about the allegations regrading a conspiracy with the Russian government and the Trump campaign, I don't think any of these convictions/pleas really changes anything on that front. Manafort's crimes aren't even in the same time frame or even related to the 2016 campaign, and none of Cohen's crimes have anything to do with Russians. - mig
[2018-08-21 17:19:28] - mig: "If there was actually something to these allegations then we'd probably should have had hard evidence of it by now." trump's national security advisor, campaign aid, campaign chairman, deputy campaign chairman / top transition official, and personal lawyer: all five of them pleaded/found guilty. have we seen enough evidence yet? if not, where is the line? ~a
[2018-08-21 10:40:42] - a: I do not. -Daniel
[2018-08-21 10:18:11] - daniel: i haven't noticed any network issues that i can remember. do you remember if it was "--network bridge" (this is the default) or "--network host"? also do you remember if you were using "-p" (--publish) to make the ports public? ~a
[2018-08-21 09:53:12] - a: I've seen some network issues with them before where there were problems getting instance A to correctly talk to instance B that have made me slightly hesitant but I'm not sure how accurate / representative that is of the actual tech and its current state. -Daniel
[2018-08-21 09:48:49] - a: I've used it some but don't use it a lot. I think partly thats because most of my world still runs on windows boxes. -Daniel
[2018-08-21 09:13:33] - does anybody here use docker? it has kinda changed my life. most powerful tool i've found since git. and maybe moreso. ~a
[2018-08-21 08:13:31] - fivethirtyeight with baseball stuff. kinda cool to see how infrequent tie games are compared to non-tie games. also . . . 49 to 33 is like 9 runs per inning. there must have been shitty pitchers in the 1800s. ~a
[2018-08-20 15:41:24] -
yeah, ok. maybe they should have gotten it in writing. ~a[2018-08-20 15:29:50] - a: This feels like it needs 100% more "funding secured". -Paul
[2018-08-20 15:28:12] - yep i said that. ~a
[2018-08-20 15:10:51] - a: I don't think I would sink significant resources into a venture like this without agreement in writing. -Daniel
[2018-08-20 14:57:24] - lordy, i hope there are tapes. ~a
[2018-08-20 14:56:24] - mig: the thing i wish one of these articles would clear up: what was the "agreement" that drink company refers to? did turner actually change their minds? and what does turner think about that aspect of the situation? was the real crux that since it wasn't in writing, turner was ok changing the terms of the deal? or was the real crux that there was no agreement in the first place? ~a
[2018-08-20 14:54:49] - mig: i'm referring to: "We then reached an agreement, ..., but they changed their minds". of course i concede they very much should have gotten everything in writing. but unless they made that part up completely, i seriously feel for the bar for getting screwed over by this. ~a
[2018-08-20 14:52:34] - mig: agreed on all points. however, drink company implied that they had a verbal agreement. assuming for a second that they weren't lying about this part, would that change your opinion at all? ~a
[2018-08-20 14:44:44] - Also, this pop up bar venture is 100% NOT fair use. - mig
[2018-08-20 14:26:07] - I think this is all on the folks running the bar. Turner really has no obligation to lend its IP for the bar's sake, and the people creating the bar really should have gotten any agreement with Turner in writing before going ahead with the project. - mig
[2018-08-20 14:22:41] - a: to be quite honest, I'm surprised TBS even considered negotiating in the first place. - mig
[2018-08-20 13:07:36] - lots of hard to interpret shit here and in the end it doesn't answer any real questions, because of all of the details left out of the story (were there any verbal agreements? and what were they?). ~a
[2018-08-20 10:44:13] - a: Yeah, that's a step in the right direction. It's a hard genie to put back in the bottle, because people are used to getting "free" health insurance now and are going to go crazy if/when presented with the full cost to pay, even if they would get a matching raise at work (which is not at all guaranteed). -Paul
[2018-08-20 10:15:42] - paul: so more to your points, you at least can pick from one of the two insurance companies if you're married/cohabitating. ~a
[2018-08-20 10:14:48] - paul: you might like what my company does. it is at least a step in the right direction. if you're in the unique position that you can get insurance from your spouse (etc) you get the money it would have spent on you as an added benefit. i've worked for companies that gave some money in that case (like 10% at one company i worked at), but no company i've ever worked for gives back 100% of the money they would have spent on insurance. ~a
[2018-08-20 10:11:42] - a: There's no real supply and demand curve to speak of. Prices are set by negotiations between insurance companies (or the government) and health care providers. -Paul
[2018-08-20 10:09:52] - a: Because our health care system is a horrific mess of unintended consequences and mis-aligned incentives due to government involvement? Most people are completely insulated from the costs of their health care because health insurance pays for most of it, and we have so little control over health insurance since it's tied to employment. -Paul
[2018-08-20 08:26:02] - i had no idea that medical "copay" worked this way. if a car insurance company told me to pay a deductible that was greater than the cost of the repairs, i'd throw a fit. why exactly is our system designed in this way? "insurance copays are higher than the cost of the drug about 25% of the time" i only read the first eight paragraphs. ~a
[2018-08-17 14:35:05] - aaron: Once again, the conservative, poopy fart-heavy portfolio pays off for the... hungry investor? -Paul
[2018-08-17 12:56:52] - and how about my stocks? ...have they also increased in value? - aaron
[2018-08-17 12:47:24] - Andrew only 3% ahead too. Doesn't seem like there is a runaway this time. -Daniel
[2018-08-17 12:31:56] - The 2018 stock market challenge has certainly tightened up. I'm tied with Daniel now! -Paul
[2018-08-17 11:39:13] - but honestly, i'd assume he follows something like the M:TG format of, "every deck will have 36 cards; 24 commons, 8 uncommons and 4 rares; and 25% of decks might replace those rares with a legendary" or something like that. so maybe 25% of decks will be really good, and 0.3% of decks will be really really really good, etc... - aaron
[2018-08-17 11:36:40] - a: regardless of how balanced they are, some decks are inevitably better than others. richard garfield is a great game designer, so let's imagine on a scale of 1-10, most decks are about a 4 or a 5, but some decks are a 5.000001. ...well, that's still a problem, it's just a matter of scale - aaron
[2018-08-17 10:29:58] - aaron: are we assuming that decks aren't algorithmically built to be even(ish)? ~a
[2018-08-17 10:17:59] - i'm also amused by the idea of someone buying 20 decks and then throwing them all in the garbage after opening them, which is a concept unique to this game. usually you at least save your commons for a secondary market or alternate formats (M:TG's pauper format for example) but here they are literally worthlesss - aaron
[2018-08-17 10:14:00] - why not just auction off the tournament prize at that point, and let people play whatever they want afterwards? the rich players can have their trophy and then you can play a real game - aaron
[2018-08-17 10:12:17] - wow, they somehow came up with a format that is even more exploitative than CCGs... someone who buys 100,000 decks will have a disadvantage to someone who buys 1,000,000 decks. there is literally no ceiling - aaron
[2018-08-16 10:05:58] - mig: Yeah I agree. I think part of CCG's is the part where people feel like they 'made' the deck and have figured out some new combo to push the meta or whatever. This seems to just trade that for blind luck. Seems very questionable. -Daniel
[2018-08-16 09:51:45] - daniel: yeah that's the weird part. I think they kind of want this to be a competitive type game but seems like all it'll take is for one lucky person to get the "best" deck and it's kind of over. - mig
[2018-08-16 09:45:50] - It still seems to kill the dynamic nature of CCG's and remove meta which seems like a big part to me. -Daniel
[2018-08-16 09:45:24] - a: Hmm I guess I'm not sure how that works. Like is that name formed from letters from all the cards? Like if I swap out two cards from my premade deck does the word name change? -Daniel
[2018-08-15 20:01:35] - daniel: they answer one of the questions you had at the beginning of this video (i only watched the first 20 seconds). your deck has a "name" that is a certain set of words on the back of every card. if you change your deck, the deck back colors will be different and the deck name will have different words on them. ~a
[2018-08-15 12:47:26] - mig: It seems odd to me and at first doomed to fail? How can they guarantee that all decks are competitive and on some level of equal footing if every deck is unique. What is the point of meta if you aren't supposed to change your deck? How would anyone know if you changed your deck? Seems confusing to me. -Daniel
[2018-08-15 12:36:01] - https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/news/2018/8/3/keyforge-call-of-the-archons/ i don't have much interest in this game but I was curious about thoughts on the premise. Basically, instead of buying boosters you are buying unique decks (essentially no deckbuilding is permitted). I have many questions on how viable this idea is, but has this really not been tried before? - mig
[2018-08-15 10:29:03] - Holy crap, Chinese stocks are taking a pounding... -Paul
[2018-08-15 10:28:23] - a: I only have 15 shares now...
-Paul[2018-08-15 10:27:52] - a: Yeah, I saw the article on CNBC about them investing a bunch, checked the stock performance, and then just happened to see that article on the front page of Fool Canada and thought it was funny.
-Paul[2018-08-15 09:57:39] - paul: found this article on toronto:weed from today. apparently corona is involved? ~a
[2018-08-15 09:47:48] - paul: i have 12 shares of nvda so you probably have me beat there. wow, nice on toronto:weed. acbff is up a bunch too. ~a
[2018-08-15 08:54:09] - https://www.fool.ca/2018/08/14/this-is-the-perfect-time-to-buy-canopy-growth-corp-tsxweed/ Speaking of timing.... this article from yesterday seems amazingly timed considering Canopy appears to be up 40% pre-market.
-Paul[2018-08-15 08:05:37] - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/15/wells-fargo-raises-its-nvidia-price-target-to-315-from-140-in-a-rare.html Ugh, I sold some shares (roughly half of my position) of nVidia a few days ago and I think there's been good news. I think the next morning they announced a new chipset that was well received by the market and today Wells Fargo over doubled their price target. This is why I don't try to time the market.
-Paul[2018-08-14 14:01:41] - https://caseymuratori.com/blog_0005 walk monster - how The Witness tested walkable spaces to avoid physics bugs, weird collision geometry, and unintended player-reachable areas - aaron
[2018-08-14 11:01:15] - a: "a few centuries" oof. -Daniel
[2018-08-14 10:12:44] - 106 years ago today ~a
[2018-08-13 10:47:09] - I was amused by that as well. Like what an impressive innate knowledge of physical limitations. I think humans would have tried and failed. -- Xpovos
[2018-08-13 10:20:07] - a:
- aaron[2018-08-13 10:19:34] - a: i thought it was funny how he didn't even try. and just started meowing for help. i would expect him to at least try, and knock it over or something - aaron
prev <-> next