prev <-> next
[2018-10-04 10:40:16] - Daniel: I guess it depends on your definition of wall street? I mean, certainly many are and have been successful: Buffett, Lynch, the Gardner Brothers
I've already explained why I think actively managed funds have trouble succeeding... -Paul[2018-10-04 10:28:33] - Paul: " I do believe it can work, and I believe it can work for anybody who puts forth the time and effort to track things" Don't like many thousands of people do this? Like all of wall street? Isn't that their entire career? And yet why aren't they all successful? -Daniel
[2018-10-04 09:57:18] - Daniel: "But you believe that can work. So why don't you believe it can work for everyone?" I do believe it can work, and I believe it can work for anybody who puts forth the time and effort to track things and isn't too controlled by their emotions where they panic and sell when the market turns (although that's a problem for passive investing too). -Paul
[2018-10-04 09:56:01] - I mean, I think we can all agree that unless you are literally living paycheck to paycheck, you probably should be investing in the stock market as early as possible. It's about as close to a lock and obvious thing as there is in investing. Yet something like half of Americans don't own stocks. -Paul
[2018-10-04 09:55:01] - Daniel: The same reason not everybody invests in passive index funds? The same reason so many people have credit card debt? Just because something might be simple or obvious doesn't mean everybody does it. -Paul
[2018-10-04 09:53:40] - Daniel: When the reality of the stock market (at least for my form of investing) is that you put your money into 20 stocks and half of them might drop (including some that drop big) and I'll never have my portfolio go up 500% in one year, but maybe I might be fortunate enough to have it go up that amount in 10 or 20 years (or whatever). -Paul
[2018-10-04 09:53:40] - Paul: I guess mostly the point I actually care about is why you think that other people / active managers fail to consistently beat the market over time? Do you think its some combination of restrictions based on their format and them being dumb? Or something else? -Daniel
[2018-10-04 09:51:57] - Paul: But you believe that can work. So why don't you believe it can work for everyone? And then why isn't everyone beating the stock market? -Daniel
[2018-10-04 09:51:50] - Daniel: There could easily be a DANIEL system or ADRIAN system or whatever else. Also, while I don't necessarily object to calling it "simple", I do want to point out that simple doesn't mean easy. I think most people want to put their money in one stock which goes up 500% in one year and never goes down... -Paul
[2018-10-04 09:50:10] - Daniel: Hmmm. I think I probably didn't explain myself well in PvtM. I don't mean to claim that the PAUL system is some magical system which will make you rich. I just wanted to explain what my own personal system is identifying companies I think can outperform. -Paul
[2018-10-04 09:35:53] - Paul: Even with the structure and restrictions on mutual fund managers I guess I would expect a higher success rate there if successfully beating the market was as straightforward as I feel you present it. -Daniel
[2018-10-04 09:35:05] - Paul: I guess I'm curious why more people aren't richer from the stock market if successful investing can be reduced to the PAUL system? I guess the thing to look for would be studies of individual investors that aren't day trading and track their results over time? Which is what you are attempting to do personally but I wonder if there is a study for that over time. -Daniel
[2018-10-04 00:06:25] - Also, I modified the homepage so it goes straight to the most recent post and moved the welcome message to a side widget. Hopefully that's a little less confusing. -Paul
[2018-10-04 00:05:55] - For the late night crowd: https://paulvsthemarket.com/the-freedom-portfolio-oct-2018/ -Paul
[2018-10-03 20:18:30] - Daniel: I imagine a hedge fund manager doing this full time could easily double or triple that number. -Paul
[2018-10-03 20:18:08] - Daniel: Oh, I misunderstood your question. I don't think there is anything magical about my system. It's what I think works for me (based on my past experience). I put a limit of 30 stocks because I find it hard to track things past that. -Paul
[2018-10-03 16:16:24] - just as a heads up. -Daniel
[2018-10-03 16:16:21] - also that is nsfw because of language
[2018-10-03 16:15:35] - aaron: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyg_v7Vxo4A -Daniel
[2018-10-03 16:14:28] - aaron: If I somehow automated my job I would definitely not tell people because yeah I wouldn't trust the company to not just poof me or take the idea and pay me not much money for it. -Daniel
[2018-10-03 16:13:39] - double post! woo!
[2018-10-03 16:13:33] - Paul: I'm not sure what prevents an active manager from creating a fund that only invests in 30 stocks. Is that a thing? I know you have said things like needing a cash cushion and some regulatory stuff but that seems like it could still fit into your principles. -Daniel
[2018-10-03 16:13:31] - Paul: I'm not sure what prevents an active manager from creating a fund that only invests in 30 stocks. Is that a thing? I know you have said things like needing a cash cushion and some regulatory stuff but that seems like it could still fit into your principles. -Daniel
[2018-10-03 16:05:27] - https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/vomtn/update_my_friends_call_me_a_scumbag_because_i/ and the followup; he was fired because he was using company time to write code, and not do data entry. but he had encrypted the program so the company could not use it. he was hired back as a consultant, and let the company use his program. his coworkers laid off or moved to other departments - aaron
[2018-10-03 16:02:44] - https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/tenoq/reddit_my_friends_call_me_a_scumbag_because_i/ oh! i found it - aaron
[2018-10-03 15:58:04] - he realized he didn't want to put his coworkers out of work, or raise any red flags -- so he throttled it, and would even programmed it to make typos now so it wasn't 100% perfect. but it still put him in the awkward position where he was surfing the net all day and looked bored, but outperformed his diligent data entry coworkers - aaron
[2018-10-03 15:56:18] - where an employee was hired for data entry, and worked alongside three other employees doing the same work. and they were rewarded based on four criteria: how much data they processed, and how infrequently they made errors. the employee had some coding experience, and while it involved OCR-ing some human readable data and messy stuff he managed to automate it - aaron
[2018-10-03 15:52:02] - a: i don't know, it's complicated. i think given that the employer is clearly motivated to fire an employee once their job is made redundant, it's ethical for the employee to act in their own best interest. i also heard about a more nuanced scenario, but i can't remember where (this may have been an old daily wtf...) - aaron
[2018-10-03 15:27:01] - Daniel: "why don't you think more active money managers follow your strategy?" Because I think there are things that prohibit it, which I think we've discussed before. Mostly, I think having to be responsible for the whims of others causes them to not be able to follow "my strategy". -Paul
[2018-10-03 15:24:12] - aDaniel: I'll look at changing that soon. -Paul
[2018-10-03 15:23:50] - aDaniel: Ah, okay. That's what I was worried about. I can change it so the home page just shows the most recent post (followed by the next recent and so forth). I wanted to have the welcome screen so I could introduce newcomers to the "What is PvtM?" and "What is the Freedom Portfolio?" pages... -Paul
[2018-10-03 14:16:25] - paul: Or do you want me to go put that as a comment on pvtm to generate discussion there?
-Daniel[2018-10-03 14:15:18] - paul: As a question for your investing system, do you think that others haven't tried very similar things before? You have stated your attempt is to beat the market and the belief than one can do so if they do the right things. However given the massive financial incentives why don't you think more active money managers follow your strategy? -Daniel
[2018-10-03 14:01:59] - paul: Oo - Yeah I didn't realize I had to click a link to go to the blog section. -Daniel
[2018-10-03 13:59:00] - anyways more to the point, i do read pvtm. but i don't think that negates what i said about milazzo's statement on rd. ~a
[2018-10-03 13:57:36] - yeah uhhh, that was confusing to me. if i go to rd, i see your newest pvtm post. if i go to pvtm, i don't see your post newest pvtm post. that's weird. ~a
[2018-10-03 13:55:58] - If you guys didn't see that post, please let me know. I've had a suspicion/fear that the "welcome" screen is causing people to not catch when I post new stuff. -Paul
[2018-10-03 13:48:43] - https://paulvsthemarket.com/why-i-am-not-directly-investing-in-marijuana-stocks/ -Paul
[2018-10-03 13:47:21] - paul: Weed references? On your site? I think I missed those. -Daniel
[2018-10-03 13:41:05] - I just can't quite tell who has read my stuff so far. Expected more people to play the "find the marijuana references" game.
-Paul[2018-10-03 13:40:39] - Daniel: Not yet, but soon! The first edition of the Freedom Portfolio is coming... -Paul
[2018-10-03 13:33:01] - paul: Is there something new on pvtm? -Daniel
[2018-10-03 13:07:00] - a: bofi changed their name (and ticker, I think) to Axos Financial (AX). -Paul
[2018-10-03 13:06:33] - a: You can start by reading PaulVsTheMarket.
-Paul[2018-10-03 12:57:02] - paul: also this! i noticed last week, something is wrong with "bofi" on google finance. you can see it on our "stock market challenge" on the 2017 tab (column I3). why is this? ~a
[2018-10-03 12:45:42] - paul: if you ever do meet up with milazzo to discuss fianance stuff, please keep me in mind. i think about finance stuff like pretty much all the time now. ~a
[2018-10-03 12:31:12] - aaron: oh wow. what do you think? i'm definitely conflicted. part of me wants to put the pressure on the managers: if you're that disconnected from the work product that you wouldn't notice, maybe it's your own damn fault. on the other hand if the automation is that graceful, maybe the managers shouldn't be able to notice. it's a weird situation. i think i'd tell somebody, but maybe i'd finesse it into something else. ~a
[2018-10-03 12:11:25] - https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/10/agents-of-automation/568795/ is it unethical to automate your job, and withhold that information from your employer? if you do the "right thing" and tell your employer you've automated your job, is it unethical for them to fire you because you're no longer needed? - aaron
[2018-10-02 12:33:54] - new felony? ~a
[2018-10-01 14:21:00] - a: Yeah, my bad. October 1st snuck up on me. -Paul
[2018-10-01 11:51:01] - i really like when things line up with quarter boundaries. i can wait until january. ~a
[2018-10-01 10:14:22] - a: Sorry, I've dropped the ball a bit. I'll put something on pvtm. I wanted to have it start October 1st and I also wanted to have Tesla, but now that looks sketchy with their big jump today. Would you still pick Tesla if we started it Wednesday or something? -Paul
[2018-10-01 09:59:44] - paul: my picks were tsla,amd,acbff,ntdoy,aapl, not sure where i was supposed to put them, though. ~a
[2018-10-01 09:47:51] - For the record, I don't blame Vanguard for the underperformance at all. I believe it's due to my allocation which is heavy on international, which has been hurting lately. -Paul
[2018-10-01 09:44:28] - So I "lost" this quarter, but am still up 33% in 2018 versus 9% for the S&P and about flat for Vanguard. Since inception, my individual picks are up 86% compared to 51% for the S&P and 43% for Vanguard. -Paul
[2018-10-01 09:42:37] - Retirement fund update (likely soon to be moved to PvtM): Apparently the S&P 500 was up 7.7% in Q3? Pretty good. My Vanguard fund was only up 2% (some heavy exposure to emerging markets and international, which I think is down lately). My individual holdings were also only up 3%. -Paul
[2018-09-28 16:59:55] - Anybody who is interested in a new stock market challenge have some picks ready for an October 1st start? -Paul
[2018-09-28 16:11:36] - a: I'm not against it. Though I'm skeptical it'll turn up anything conclusive. - mig
[2018-09-28 16:08:12] - is anybody here against the FBI investigating the ford, ramirez, or swetnick situations? i'm not sure i understand why they shouldn't do this investigation considering the situation fully. ~a
[2018-09-28 15:21:05] - mig: he also said the devil's triangle is a drinking game (it isn't) and that saying a girl is your "alumnius" is the same as saying that a girl is your friend (it isn't) and that "have you boofed yet?" on a high school yearbook means "have you farted yet?" (it doesn't). ~a
[2018-09-28 15:06:32] - mig: judge kavanaugh's sworn testimony was that he was legally allowed to drink in high school (he wasn't), and that he didn't do much drinking on weekdays in high school (he did). ~a
[2018-09-28 10:56:38] - a: There's some merit, though, that July 1,1982 should have been scrutinized a little further. For some reason the democrat members of the committee didn't press on that issue (choosing mostly to grandstand instead), and at the end of the day, there's still the hurdle of both PJ Smyth's and Leland Keysar's non corroborations of Ford's account. - mig
[2018-09-28 10:32:21] - a: are we talking about any previous testimony? The slate article doesn't really cite any. - mig
[2018-09-28 10:32:19] - Ethics question: I see a lot of ads on Facebook touting what are essentially stock teasers (yes, some are from the Fool). Anything wrong with me jumping into the comments section and touting my own free site? Clever marketing or morally questionable? -Paul
[2018-09-28 10:31:41] - a: I'm looking at the transcript of the hearing from yesterday, and he does admit to consuming alcohol that summer. "The calendars show a few weekday gatherings at friends’ houses after a workout or just to meet up and have some beers." - mig
[2018-09-28 10:29:09] - a: One of the best descriptions about Trump (and I'm going to butcher the saying here) is that he has very strongly held beliefs, and they are the ones of the person who he last spoke to. -Paul
[2018-09-28 08:54:46] - the american bar association calls for a halt before today's vote? ~a
[2018-09-28 08:39:40] - mig: do you have any thoughts on kavanaugh's own corroboration of drinking on july 1st, 1982 which directly clashes with his sworn testimony about that non-drinking summer? or that his buddys have told the world that kavanaugh has lied about drinking to excess in high school? ~a
[2018-09-28 08:33:59] - paul: yes, that is quite surprising. maybe sometimes fox news says nonpartisan things when they think the truth will help their case? not sure how the truth helps them here though. apparently it is getting through; according to sources close to the president, trump also thinks ford seems credible. it's weird that he can't have an original thought. though maybe his original thought is that rachel mitchell is working for the democrats ~a
[2018-09-27 15:50:01] - https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/27/media/christine-blasey-ford-fox-news/index.html I think this is a fair article, but it still feels a little bizarre to have one TV network essentially grading another network's coverage of an event.
-Paul[2018-09-27 15:48:39] - paul: k. ~a
[2018-09-27 15:44:54] - amig: I was more referring to less official things than Senate hearings, like social media or the message board.
I've been seeing a lot of references to "Doctor Ford", which isn't wrong or anything, but it seems like a higher rate than I see in reference to people like, say, Doctor Jordan Peterson. -Paul[2018-09-27 15:01:29] - mig: agreed. they call grassley, "chairmain" ~100% of the time. ~a
[2018-09-27 14:38:24] - so everyone is addressed by a title if they have one. - mig
[2018-09-27 14:38:08] - the title thing is from what I've gathered SOP for senate hearings. - mig
[2018-09-27 14:05:31] - Daniel: Governor is different because it's a public election there. That one seems more up to the people. I personally would be more lenient for governor. -Paul
[2018-09-27 14:04:23] - Daniel: For Supreme Court Justice? I think so. Obviously it depends a bit on the circumstances. Is it a 17 year old having consensual sex with his 16 year old girlfriend who happens to be a minor? Or was it a violent home invasion? There are varying degrees of wrongness in my mind. -Paul
[2018-09-27 14:01:20] - a: If only her name wasn't synonymous with a car company, then we might be able to put some numbers to it.
-Paul[2018-09-27 13:59:38] - Could Michael Vick run for governor of some state and be able to portray himself as a changed person? -Daniel
[2018-09-27 13:58:24] - a: https://www.nationalreview.com/news/christine-blasey-fords-polygraph-statement-inconsistent-with-letter-dianne-feinstein/ The number of the people at the party. Again, not saying this proves anything, and it seems like a silly thing to get hung up on, but that's where we're at right now. -Paul
[2018-09-27 13:58:20] - Paul: So if someone attempts to rape someone at 19 year old then when they are 65 they would still be ineligible in your eyes for a prominent public position? What if they have served jail time? Does that matter? -Daniel
[2018-09-27 13:57:32] - paul: "I wonder if there is any kind of imbalance in terms of how often people refer to her as 'Doctor' Ford versus referring to him as 'Judge' Kavanaugh..." you're allowed to keep wondering this. they call him judge kavanaugh all the fucking time. ~a
[2018-09-27 13:54:43] - Daniel: For me personally? I think a drunken grope or drunken botched attempt at flirting is something I could excuse. Attempted rape is not. Of course, I think it's pretty likely people have wildly different ideas of where the line between those are drawn, and I think that adds to the problem. -Paul
[2018-09-27 13:53:26] - Paul: I think almost all doctors want to make sure they are always referred to as Dr _____ -Daniel
[2018-09-27 13:53:22] - paul: "her details had changed". i'm not sure i know which details you're referring to. ~a
[2018-09-27 13:52:50] - Paul: did her story change? -Daniel
[2018-09-27 13:52:05] - The fact that she is a doctor seems pretty irrelevant to the debate, and yet almost every time I hear her name referenced, it's preceded by "doctor". -Paul
[2018-09-27 13:51:50] - mig: I think that is accurate. Which is why the real current situation is very murky. But I was just curious about the theory of someone who did something bad a long time ago and then was brought up as they tried to get some prominent public position. What kinds of things should be disqualifying? What things should we be able to write off as "oh they were young and stupid" and things that we go "oh no! thats to much!" -Daniel
[2018-09-27 13:51:20] - Also, I wonder if there is any kind of imbalance in terms of how often people refer to her as "Doctor" Ford versus referring to him as "Judge" Kavanaugh... -Paul
[2018-09-27 13:50:24] - a: What Miguel said. I thought that basically nobody can corroborate her story, including people she said would back her up. I also heard that her details had changed and she couldn't remember other things about the party. Obviously they don't prove anything, but are simply holes in the accusation. -Paul
[2018-09-27 13:43:48] - daniel: right now there's 0 corroboration from any of the alleged attendees of the party where the incident occured. One of them, a lifelong friend of Ford pretty strongly denies ever attending such a party. - mig
[2018-09-27 13:33:20] - The only hole I'm aware of is people just saying she was drunk too so maybe she is just wrong. Are there other holes that people are pointing out (or trying to point out?) -Daniel
[2018-09-27 13:31:30] - paul: "there are a lot of holes in all the accusations" you should probably try to be way more specific. i have heard people try (and fail) to poke holes in dr ford's accusations. ~a
[2018-09-27 13:31:27] - Paul: I don't think there is anything like a smoking gun. Ford gave her testimony this morning and it went well for her. Thats a weird sentence though. I don't know it makes her more "true" but maybe more "believable"? Its hard to know true here and even harder for us at a distance I imagine. -Daniel
[2018-09-27 13:26:30] - Also, I haven't been following closely, but do we yet have a reason to strongly believe one side is lying? I know there have been more accusers, but I also have heard that there are a lot of holes in all the accusations. -Paul
[2018-09-27 13:25:42] - Daniel: In this specific situation (Republicans trying to rush him through on party lines) and in this general moment (#metoo), and for the position of Supreme Court Justice? I.... don't think so, but if any of those were different, maybe. -Paul
[2018-09-27 13:15:23] - It'll get weird though if his nomination is ultimately blocked by this and democrats don't move to impeach him from the federal bench. - mig
[2018-09-27 13:14:02] - daniel: I think for this particular office, probably not. - mig
[2018-09-27 13:07:09] - I don't know. Ford's accusations are pretty terrible so I'm not sure how forgiveness plays into that. Like if he was caught plagarizing something that seems like we could all forgive that. Dog abuse? Maybe? Murder? Probably not. Its weird and tricky to think about bad things + time and when you think someone can be a better / changed person from before. -Daniel
[2018-09-27 13:04:48] - The principle being what and how long ago are events disqualifying for prominent public positions I guess. Like is there a path to redemption / forgiveness? I think so based on other celebrities but I'm not sure if the same for political office is true. He in particular is highly politically charged so its tricky to separate that out but still curious. -Daniel
[2018-09-27 13:03:02] - Hypothetical for the group - If kavanaugh had responded to Fords accusations initially with I was much younger and much stupider then and much drunker and it was terrible and I shouldn't have done it. I've learned a lot since then, met my wife, had kids and better understand what a bad person I once was blah blah statement statement. Would that be acceptable for a supreme court judge? -Daniel
[2018-09-27 11:31:28] - a: When I am losing? Yes.
-Paul[2018-09-27 11:31:15] - a: Good. Vehicular homicide is a big deal. I find any kind of hit and run to be problematic, but something like this is far worse. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-27 11:19:05] - you think this is a game? this is just a fucking game to you?! ~a
[2018-09-27 10:09:12] - a: No idea! I guess we'll find out. I wouldn't be surprised if he actually picked individual companies if it's a game that's just for fun... -Paul
[2018-09-27 09:54:36] - now thats a headline sure to generate clicks. -Daniel
[2018-09-27 09:54:24] - INDEX FUNDS VS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT (MAYBE) INDEX FUNDS! -Daniel
[2018-09-27 09:44:50] - paul: uhh, sure. won't matt effectively be using the daniel-strategy? ~a
[2018-09-27 09:42:27] - Daniel: I was thinking just documenting it there. We could still track in the spreadsheet. It would just me listing my picks and Adrian's and whoever else's and then checking in every quarter or so to see how things are going... -Paul
[2018-09-27 09:37:46] - Paul: I don't mind it being documented on pvtm but does that just mean you linking to the challenge from pvtm or it actually being hosted there somehow? -Daniel
[2018-09-27 01:26:33] - xpovos: adding onto our conversation about the dead rider, an arlington man died in a hit-and-run crash in dc yesterday. there are so many red-light cameras there, i'm pretty sure somebody is eventually going to go to jail. ~a
[2018-09-26 22:44:34] - aDaniel: Any interest in another Stock Market challenge running from October 1, 2018 to October 1, 2019? Maybe documented on pvtm somehow and including Matt Herndon? -Paul
[2018-09-26 21:44:42] - a: We clearly need a statistics person to talk to about this. -Paul
[2018-09-26 14:58:00] - a: Yeah, but we're also ignoring the people who use a similar system as I do and who do beat the market. -Paul
[2018-09-26 14:47:37] - yes. there is more than one data point. "concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not". we're concentrating on only you instead of also concentrating on the other people (who may have even used the same or similar system to you) that did not beat the market. ~a
[2018-09-26 14:15:50] - a: Also, I know this is a bit behind, but how am I falling prey to survivorship bias? Can you have survivorship bias when I'm just dealing with one data point, essentially? -Paul
[2018-09-26 14:14:50] - a: Neither do I, so I admit I could be entirely wrong, but I don't know if there is some way that I can prove that I alone am skilled instead of lucky for beating the market. Wouldn't you need to test thousands of people? -Paul
[2018-09-26 14:07:40] - you need a p-value of less than 0.05? honestly i don't know because i don't know much stat. ~a
[2018-09-26 14:01:27] - a: Okay, but how do I do that? Do I need a certain number of my picks to beat the market by a certain percentage? -Paul
[2018-09-26 13:36:42] - to bring this back to daniel's points: if 75% of people are going to lose to the market, and 10m people are trying to beat the market, you've only shown that you are one of 2.5m people. ignore the chance vs skill detail. this is just simple numbers. in this example 2.5m people are going to beat the market. you need to somehow show you're not just one of those 2.5m people. ~a
[2018-09-26 13:32:21] - your hypothesis is lacking. you need to define what it means to beat the market (which is why i mentioned p values) ~a
[2018-09-26 13:31:08] - a: Well, I have my hypothesis (I can beat the market) and method (by picking individual companies to invest in), right? -Paul
[2018-09-26 13:30:02] - no. you're breaking the scientific method if you collect data points before you decide your hypothesis and your methods. ~a
[2018-09-26 13:28:21] - a: Fair. I think I understand what you are saying, but isn't the first step to just collect data points? I can't do any statistical analysis now. I have to get 30 years of track record or whatever first. -Paul
[2018-09-26 13:27:13] - iow, statistical "significance" is a notion in and of itself (i don't actually know much about this, but they measure p-value to determine if a thing is even outside of an expected norm). ~a
[2018-09-26 13:24:49] - which of course, is a dumb conclusion, but even the presupposition (i beat the market), isn't even something you can say without a bit of stat. ~a
[2018-09-26 13:23:04] - or else you'll get a lot of "i beat the market, therefore i'm good at beating the market". ~a
[2018-09-26 13:22:30] - statisticians are really good at figuring out which numerical claims are based on sound logic and which numerical claims are bunk. they're good at figuring out which claims are meaningless. when numbers are involved, they're good at finding out what things we should learn from and what things we should ignore. i feel like "beating the market" needs to be grounded in statistics. ~a
[2018-09-26 13:17:08] - a: Not sure what you mean? -Paul
[2018-09-26 13:15:11] - paul: maybe you need to learn some stat. ~a
[2018-09-26 13:06:55] - Right, I guess I don't know how to prove that I can beat the market and that it is not simply by chance. The only thing I can do is to try to beat the market and see what my results are. That's the point of this site. -Paul
[2018-09-26 12:07:08] - maybe not, i dunno. anyways, i think for paul to prove that he's doing better than chance, is to make concrete predictions about the future, and have them be . . . interesting predictions? i.e. predictions that aren't easily attributable to random chance. beating the market by more than 3%/year over a decade? ~a
[2018-09-26 11:56:05] - daniel/paul: survivorship bias is what paul is falling prey to. ~a
[2018-09-26 11:49:49] - Paul: I'm not sure how to distinguish them at the moment I guess? -Daniel
[2018-09-26 11:47:20] - oh hey my ip changed at home and my ip changing script actually worked for once. nice! dynamic dns was a solved problem in like 1998, so i'm only 20 years behind. ~a
[2018-09-26 11:30:19] - Daniel: Hmmmm, but you think it is more chance than skill? -Paul
[2018-09-26 11:25:38] - Paul: So if any one person has a 75% percent chance of losing to the market and there are 10 million people playing then I would not be surprised to see a lot of winners. -Daniel
[2018-09-26 11:25:24] - Paul: I think my position is a bit more nuanced than that. I think actively managed funds are a waste of money. I think individuals are better off in the long run in passive index funds. I think whether an individual beats the market or not will have a lot of chance elements to it. -Daniel
[2018-09-26 11:17:43] - Daniel: "I think almost anyone would agree that any individual with (most) mindsets can beat the market." I'm actually surprised to hear you say that (surprised to see you write that?). I thought your position is that it's hard for individuals to beat the market so why bother trying. -Paul
[2018-09-26 11:16:56] - Daniel: Yeah, I get that it sounds patriotic, but I also figure it should be a non-objectionable sounding patriotic. Nobody is against freedom, right? Would financial freedom portfolio be better? -Paul
[2018-09-26 11:08:00] - I'm not even sure at the moment how someone would prove skill vs chance though. Like even Buffet or Peter Lynch. Is there a way to definitely say they weren't lucky? I'm not sure. -Daniel
[2018-09-26 11:06:39] - Paul: The challenge is to show you did it at a greater rate than chance. And the problem there is that with so many players its hard to distinguish what is chance and what isn't. -Daniel
[2018-09-26 11:06:00] - Paul: I think your challenge statement is incorrect? Or already proved true? Or something? "that an individual investor with a long term mindset who is in control of their emotions can beat the return of the market." I think almost anyone would agree that any individual with (most) mindsets can beat the market. -Daniel
[2018-09-26 10:59:07] - Paul: Freedom Portfolio? Oof. I get it but it seems overly patriotic or something. -Daniel
[2018-09-26 10:48:05] - a: https://rampantdiscourse.com/failure-found/ -Paul
[2018-09-26 10:43:06] - oooh fun! you've gotten more bold on posting your investing stuff. i guess your work rules aren't as strict as you thought? ~a
[2018-09-26 10:30:12] - https://paulvsthemarket.com/ Welcome to any thoughts, suggestions, criticisms, etc. Thanks! -Paul
[2018-09-26 10:23:51] - gotcha. ~a
[2018-09-26 10:22:08] - a: From what I read, it's an all-cash deal, but I also think it's supposed to close in 2019, so oddly enough I think we can keep everything as is for the rest of the year. -Paul
[2018-09-26 09:38:39] - even if i'm not killed, the stress is tiresome. ~a
[2018-09-26 09:36:10] - xpovos: the only part i care about, the details of the crash is the only thing they didn't discuss in detail. i do ride on country roads on occasion but i don't like it. country road drivers aren't expecting to see riders and their speeds are also usually much higher. it's a tragic story and when i hear them i often consider giving it all up. sometimes the constant brushing with death doesn't seem worth it. ~a
[2018-09-25 17:38:50] - a: Not precisely news or even all that uncommon, but I thought this might be of some interest to you as well. https://orthosphere.wordpress.com/2018/09/25/an-eu-logion-of-zippy-catholic/ -- Xpovos
[2018-09-25 15:22:07] - alternatively, if shareholders are given a decision (which sometimes happens), then you should decide which you want. ~a
[2018-09-25 15:21:43] - i think for fairness, if the buy-out terms leave shareholders with cash, then the buy-out price of the shares should be the last price we use. 58.50 is what i see (which is pretty awesome for you). . . . if the buy-out terms leave the shareholders with shares of medtronic, then the price of medtronic is what we should use, and we should divide out the prices for mazor's history like we did with the stock-split. ~a
[2018-09-25 15:17:08] - paul: "Kinda a disappointing end for Mazor. Was up big earlier in the year, then fell back down to earth. Now bought out by Medtronic. At least I made a little bit of a gain out of it" i didn't realize that this had implications for our bet. what's are the buy-out terms for shareholders? our spreadsheet is about to get more complicated, i guess. ~a
[2018-09-25 13:25:44] - mig: i'm surprised that the co-founder of the OSI would say rescinding a supposedly "irrevocable" open source license could possibly be anything but a crisis for the open source community. like doesn't it break rules #1, #3, #5, #9 (and probably others)? why eric? why? ~a
[2018-09-25 13:05:26] - mig: from google. i only read the first half. ~a
[2018-09-25 13:04:28] - paul: yeah agreed on all counts. ~a
[2018-09-25 13:01:16] - a: I don't think many people think about the fact that Facebook is kinda based on circles of friends and only connecting to people you know, whereas Twitter is all about following people you don't know (at least for me) and airing your thoughts and opinions publicly. -Paul
[2018-09-25 13:00:25] - a: I don't see how Snap figures that out, and I think Facebook might be near a peak in terms of users and how many ads they can show. Also, Twitter should be more resistant to privacy concerns since their main deal is everything is public. -Paul
[2018-09-25 12:59:27] - a: Only social network stock I own is Twitter, and I own it because I see so much value to the platform (Now that I am a frequent user, I find it more compelling than FB) and yet they still make a fraction on marketing versus FB. I think at some point they figure out monetization. -Paul
[2018-09-25 12:59:06] - ah yes you saw that too. ~a
[2018-09-25 12:58:56] - mig: looks like stallman agrees: 2018-09-19: "If 'rescission' is really a possibility, it would cause [great] trouble for the free software community. We would need to take steps to make sure it cannot happen. However, that goes against everything I have been told by others." -rs ~a
[2018-09-25 12:57:25] - have there actually been any actual court cases ever dealing with GPL issues? - mig
[2018-09-25 12:55:33] - a: I agree there's some creative interpretation here. RMS seems to think its bunk, but ESR feels differently. A court case over it would be ... interesting. - mig
[2018-09-25 12:48:53] - mig: you can't pull past contributions. "GPL version 2 lacks a no-rescission clause" some awesome double-negative bullshit there. i doubt this interpretation: you can't pull past contributions imo. ~a
[2018-09-25 12:41:55] - paul: yeah, i also bought a small amount of sq and i'm pretty glad i did. still no twtr though. i might just stay away from facebook / twitter / etc because social networking is so very fickle. like why buy twtr instead of instagram or snapchat or . . . tinder? ~a
[2018-09-25 12:40:41] - a: https://www.itnews.com.au/news/linux-devs-threaten-to-pull-contributions-513008 apparently some unhappy developers are talking about rescinding their contributions to the kernel code (something you can apparently do when you contribute to GPL projects?) - mig
[2018-09-25 12:27:27] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNWmfR43i_A world chase 2 match... some really cool highlights and stuff! fun watch - aaron
[2018-09-25 12:14:40] - a: wow world chase tag looks awesome! it's cool it's in such an enclosed obstacle-ridden space so it's more about agility than running speed - aaron
[2018-09-25 11:53:25] - a: Huh, at some point recently my (initially much smaller) $SQ position overtook my $TWTR position in terms of percentage of my portfolio. I'm apparently all-in on Jack Dorsey.
-Paul[2018-09-25 11:33:43] - ha. sure. all of the labmos. ~a
[2018-09-25 11:13:21] - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/25/google-reverses-ban-on-cryptocurrency-exchange-advertising-in-us-japan.html Bitcoin to $500k! -Paul
[2018-09-25 09:57:39] - "world chase tag" ~a
[2018-09-25 08:35:37] - mig: well i definitely read the original post where linus said he's sorry and that he's temporarily stepping away as maintainer. but the follow up, and the coc stuff, i've been mostly ignoring. what has transpired since linus's original post? ~a
[2018-09-24 21:45:55] - a: have you been following this linux CoC debacle? - mig
[2018-09-24 19:59:55] - awwwwww. 😠~a
[2018-09-24 15:21:49] - a: !
[2018-09-24 14:39:41] - title: ? ~a
[2018-09-24 13:33:42] - a: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/24/deputy-attorney-general-rod-rosenstein-is-reportedly-resigning.html probably headline change, url text doesn't match. - mig
[2018-09-24 13:33:21] - he could fire him any time. whichever time is the most politically convenient. ~a
[2018-09-24 13:32:58] - oh that's when he meets with trump? yeah ok whatever, sure. ~a
[2018-09-24 13:32:33] - i guess i missed the thursday part. what happens on thursday? ~a
[2018-09-24 13:30:05] - a: we'll find out on Thursday it seems. - mig
[2018-09-24 13:23:00] - it does, sure. but i don't think he'll resign. ~a
[2018-09-24 12:43:32] - a: it's actually really unclear what's happening with rosenstein. There's conflicting reports on whether he's resigning or being fired, and in the sense that the distinction actually matters. - mig
[2018-09-24 12:19:22] - as a diversion, it looks like they might fire rod rosenstein, which is one of the red lines picked by move-on. ~a
[2018-09-24 11:17:24] - a: Such a mess regarding Kavanaugh. I have no idea if he's guilty or not and I doubt we'll ever know. The timing and lack of corroboration seems incredibly fishy (yes, I know that's not Ford's fault, but it is Feinstein's). Btw, I had no idea Feinstein is 85! -Paul
[2018-09-24 09:03:30] - lots of breaking news this morning. two more kavanaugh accusers have come forward. and siri is buying p. ~a
[2018-09-22 08:12:28] - But I also think this illustrates another reason why I am starting to get a little worried about Google. They do have SO much power over the delivery of information that we consume and seem to not even be trying to hide how liberal they are recently. -Paul
[2018-09-22 08:11:31] - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/21/google-staff-discussed-tweaking-search-results-after-trump-travel-ban.html I don't think this is damning for Google, and in fact am heartened that they didn't tweak anything and discussed making sure to be balanced... -Paul
[2018-09-21 14:40:13] - Kinda a disappointing end for Mazor. Was up big earlier in the year, then fell back down to earth. Now bought out by Medtronic. At least I made a little bit of a gain out of it. -Paul
[2018-09-20 11:18:22] - a: Re: Cody Wilson. Not sure what kind of comment is necessary. I've learned long ago to try to separate support for a cause and support for the face of a cause. Cody Wilson could (and I stress could, because the whole innocent until proven guilty thing) be a bad person, but that shouldn't reflect on his cause. -Paul
[2018-09-20 10:14:28] - a: Once I clicked I remembered. I was familiar with him, in a very abstract way. New thoughts, based on the case being described (meet-up, sex for money, assault) the victim was probably already being victimized (trafficked). Not a guarantee, of course, but the odds are really high. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-20 09:47:32] - daniel: you should hop on one! they are so fun. unless you're going up a hill they can move. ~a
[2018-09-20 09:38:36] - Maybe DC is better on that last point since I think people are more used to bikes and pedestrians there. TX still has a long way to go on that front I think. -Daniel
[2018-09-20 09:38:10] - a: They've been in san antonio for 6 months? a year? They are popular with some but not super popular with a lot because they just get left wherever if the charge runs out. Like just in the middle of the sidewalk or side of the street. So then it causes trouble. Its also increased the number of accidents where people aren't used to being on things like that and are running into / being run into by cars a lot more. -Daniel
[2018-09-20 09:35:06] - have you guys tried out the rental electric scooters yet? they're starting to pop up everywhere in dc and arlington. i've been using them a lot recently, since i don't drive to work, and they are super fun. $2 to get ~2 miles if it's on flat ground (they actually charge per minute instead of per km). same price as the bus and way cheaper than anything else for that distance. i arrive to work with a smile on my face every day. ~a
[2018-09-19 22:39:32] - what. the. fuck. ~a
[2018-09-19 20:23:14] - Cody Wilson. he is the founder of Defense Distributed, the company that makes 3d printed guns. ~a
[2018-09-19 19:58:42] - Without clicking the link? "Who is Cody Wilson?" -- Xpovos
[2018-09-19 17:10:33] - a: Bad people come in all forms? Will this really present a problem for his company? Like even if he gets arrested and jailed does that change anything for the company? That seems to be the bit relevant to the public at large. -Daniel
[2018-09-19 16:24:56] - cody wilson has been charged with sexual assault involving a 16-year-old girl. not sure how to comment on this article. thoughts? ~a
[2018-09-19 12:28:02] - Actually, if this thing w/ Kavanaugh fizzles out, I might prefer democrats just lose out, because I definitely do not want to see what's happening now be rewarded in any way if it turns out there's nothing to these allegations w/ Kavanaugh. - mig
[2018-09-19 12:05:00] - I'd probably prefer a split on House/Senate. As much as I don't like Republicans, I'd rather not see the clownish behavior from democrats this cycle get rewarded completely. - mig
[2018-09-19 11:22:50] - If you're a liberal/Democrat then the worst thing Trump has done has been to stack the judiciary, particularly the federal appellate level. That has been with Congress' support, largely. My best case scenario might be that the Dems take the House but somehow my Dem rep gets tossed. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-19 10:02:16] - In other words, Congress has been a problem in that they haven't fought back, but they haven't seemed to have been the instigators of many bad policies so far. The biggest I can think of is the horrible spending bill. -Paul
[2018-09-19 10:00:45] - Also, this got me thinking: What is the worst legislation that has been passed during Trump's administration? It seems like vast majority of the bad stuff that he's done has been through executive orders or other things that have bypassed Congress. -Paul
[2018-09-18 22:14:30] - I suppose it would be interesting if the Democrats could take the Senate too, because then we could talk about impeachment, but I feel like that would probably end up as an unnecessary distraction instead of being helpful. -Paul
[2018-09-18 22:13:39] - So what are the best case scenarios for people here (within reason)? I think the Democrats taking the House and Republicans keeping the Senate. That way I get the gridlock that generally seems best in terms of new legislation passed... -Paul
[2018-09-18 15:33:23] - a: Those odds seem decent to me. The House almost certainly flips at this point, and that's not surprising in historic context. The Senate flipping is far less likely. The maps are bad. But things are bad enough right now for a generic R ballot that a 1:4 seems right. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-18 15:29:03] - democrats could take both the house and senate in november. it's 1:4 chance according to fivethirtyeight, but that's just like flipping heads twice. easy shmeezy. there's a smaller chance that the republicans keep both chambers: 1:8. . . . tails three times! ~a
[2018-09-18 13:43:32] - a: I guess probably not. Once every 2 weeks doesn't seem excessive, though perhaps the question should be asked if we are actually getting anything out of value from it. - mig
[2018-09-18 13:37:26] - a: Ideally, no. Practically, I'm just as glad this President isn't giving many interviews. He's only going to say stuff that upsets people, including me. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-18 13:03:04] - ok, i don't necessarily disagree with either of you. so let me push to a different angle: what about the president? for the past forever, the president himself has been out to answer reporter questions once every 2 weeks. should that have stopped as well? ~a
[2018-09-18 12:48:51] - I'm mostly with andrew that these daily briefings really don't hold that much value beyond "it's tradition". The Press Spox will spin, the combative reporters will grandstand, and not much else. They shouldn't be abolished, but we don't need them to happen daily. - mig
[2018-09-18 11:09:49] - a: I think I'm happier with a less than daily press briefing, in general. But I get that this looks not great given the current administration. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-18 10:25:16] - i found some articles / about it, but things have only gotten worse since those articles came out. ~a
[2018-09-18 10:24:19] - does anybody know why the US press secretary has stopped doing daily press briefings? previous administrations did these every day. the current briefings are scheduled twice per month. i mean, if she's burnt out, they should probably get a new press secretary. ~a
[2018-09-17 14:56:17] - i have to imagine they'll have to REALLY reign in the series to make it episodic, and to make it 22 minutes... the youtube episodes were really off the rails. but i'll be curious to see what they come up with - aaron
[2018-09-17 14:54:08] - a: i think the last one i watched was #6 - aaron
[2018-09-17 14:01:59] - 2014, sorry. ~a
[2018-09-17 14:00:35] - i didn't know there was a "don't hug me i'm scared" 2 in 2004? wow. ~a
[2018-09-17 13:52:44] - https://www.altpress.com/news/cult-dont-hug-me-im-scared-tv-show/ Green is not a creative rebrand for TV. -- Xpovos
[2018-09-17 13:49:25] - a: On the one hand you're right, but on the other hand it's also not had any pullbacks in basically forever.
-Paul[2018-09-17 13:17:48] - i wonder if anyone has tried to kayak/motor/sail over there. it's only like 100 meters from a public road. and less than 1km from a public dock. you could practically swim there. ~a
[2018-09-17 13:08:27] - https://www.google.com/maps/place/Hawaii+2 wait... they made a hawaii 2? - aaron
[2018-09-17 13:03:21] - i guess i shouldn't be . . . too amazed? like i'm amazed that the market hasn't been seriously tanking. but to paint this in a broader light, the stock market hasn't been doing as well as i sometimes realize. it's been doing . . . like pretty average. 2017 was barely above average for the past 8 years, and 2018 has been below average. ~a
[2018-09-17 12:51:54] - i'm also amazed. not only have things been resilient, i think they've also been non-volatile. so i guess it's good i didn't take any action. maybe trump is right about everything. ~a
[2018-09-17 12:48:47] - So... when does all this trade war talk (and action) start hurting the market? I guess an argument could be made Chinese stocks are taking it on the chin, but I more meant the US stock market. I'm amazed it has been as resilient as it has been so far. -Paul
[2018-09-14 15:24:39] - a: Actually, if I'm pressuring my girls into anything, it's into being chefs or singers or dancers, since that seems to be what they're most interested in.
-Paul[2018-09-14 14:29:43] - Alex has done similar things with a dance class and soccer where she says they are the best ever and sometimes says they were the worst. I think it depends on the most recent experience. Like if a kid hit her in soccer today that means soccer is the worst all the time until the next time when she gets a goal then its always amazing. -Danel
[2018-09-14 14:27:49] - Yeah its hard at this age to get accurate feedback from children. I hope as they get older they become a better source of information on themselves. -Daniel
[2018-09-14 14:12:21] - so . . . in other words adrian somehow knew that you were totally pressuring your kids to become engineering computer scientists because their genders are under-represented. amazing!
~a[2018-09-14 14:08:08] - a: But there were many times when she flat out told us that she didn't want to go anymore because she didn't enjoy it. We usually made her go, and she often ended up telling us a few days later that she actually wants to go MORE often now, but we weren't sure if making her go was the right thing at the time. -Paul
[2018-09-14 14:07:15] - a: Ah, okay. It's a surprisingly hard line to define between supporting something your kids are into and pressuring them. For example, I'm almost positive Talia enjoyed/enjoys swimming and Tae Kwon Do and is good at both, so I want to encourage both... -Paul
[2018-09-14 13:08:09] - i dunno, i was trying to tease out the difference between "pressuring" children to become an engineer vs "encouraging" / "fostering" interests in things you consider to be positive activities. ~a
[2018-09-14 13:00:16] - a: "took an interest to something positive" I'm not sure I know what you mean. Of course I would? -Paul
[2018-09-14 12:57:01] - omg, how did i miss shirtless paul on RD on wednesday. head on over to rd if you haven't recently. ~a
[2018-09-14 12:49:20] - has nothing to do with gender equality really, i'm just curious. ~a
[2018-09-14 12:47:12] - if they took an interest to something positive, would you foster that interest? ~a
[2018-09-14 12:46:26] - yah. ~a
[2018-09-14 11:48:43] - a: The simplest way I can put it is that I want my daughters to have the opportunity to do whatever it is they want, but at the same time I'm not going to pressure them to enter Computer Science or Engineering or whatever just because their gender is "under-represented" there. -Paul
[2018-09-14 11:38:10] - Yeah somewhat I might be more towards Paul on this. I'm pro gender equity but I get worried about things like fair wage act or whatever that was because I think it gets tricky when gov is going to try and legislate salary stuff. -Daniel
[2018-09-14 11:27:05] - to rephrase the 39%. 85% of republicans are like, yeah, yeah, this is fine, i guess. we're fine. we're all fine here now, thank you. how are you? ~a
[2018-09-14 11:24:20] - a: Yeah, well, 39% would be fine if he shot somebody in the middle of the street, or whatever.
-Paul[2018-09-14 11:15:13] - nah, his approval rating is still like 39%. 39% are like, yeah this is fine i guess. ~a
[2018-09-14 11:14:26] - In terms of "policies that promote gender equity"... I don't know if I necessarily support that. Really depends on the policy and who is implementing it. I don't think it's the government's job to try to legislate equal outcomes, for instance. -Paul
prev <-> next