prev <-> next
[2019-05-16 10:04:19] - a: I'm winning 3/4 of our challenges now. Still behind in 2017 thanks to Bitcoin's rebound... -Paul
[2019-05-16 09:28:49] - a: Watched first ep of Chernobyl yesterday. It was good. -Daniel
[2019-05-15 16:31:55] - a: Hehehe, yeah. MELI and SHOP are carrying me everywhere. -Paul
[2019-05-15 16:15:34] - yeah things have definitely swung your direction on all of the things. i blame the fact that you have meli on almost every challenge. ~a
[2019-05-15 15:20:15] - a: I've retaken the lead in 2018 and am within a percentage point in 2018Q3! -Paul
[2019-05-14 14:23:44] - a: There isn't, although sometimes people look back at the end of the season and point out undrafted players who contributed a lot of points. It's hard because there are line-ups that have to be set typically. -Paul
[2019-05-14 14:15:56] - yeah, that's funny, in fantasy sports, is there an "everybody undrafted" team? i feel like it's definitely possible that (by points) someone who was able to draft literally all humans not on our three teams could maybe win. ~a
[2019-05-14 13:55:22] - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/14/mark-cuban-leaves-open-possibility-of-running-for-president-as-an-independent.html I knew I should've drafted him! -Paul
[2019-05-14 12:50:43] - now that i think about it, i think i have turned on and off my cellphone subscription through clicking. thank you google fi. ~a
[2019-05-14 12:47:10] - xpovos: can you imagine temporarily canceling your cellphone or cable subscription by clicking a button? and the re-subscribing just as easily? sometimes i think the future is bright. ~a
[2019-05-14 12:46:19] - xpovos: yeah. i give a pass to hbo because they give have a decent product, that is hard earned, at a fair price. they've recently avoided lock-in by divorcing themselves (partially) from the cable companies. their service can be cancelled temporarily, then restarted, all without having to talk to a retention-specialist. ~a
[2019-05-14 12:40:40] - a: I clearly have paid enough attention. These branding efforts are sinking in. -- Xpovos
[2019-05-14 12:35:42] - xpovos: yeah, i don't have cable either. i pay for hbonow (hbonow is the non-cable version of hbogo). ~a
[2019-05-14 11:51:32] - a: I don't have HBO. I don't even have cable (I know I could get HBO Go, but... I don't have that either.) -- Xpovos
[2019-05-14 11:39:31] - a: I expect that I will like it. I've watched some other things about Chernobyl and always been interested. -Daniel
[2019-05-14 11:28:21] - if it changes anything, it's a miniseries. so there's no commitment
~a[2019-05-14 11:28:08] - daniel: you should watch it now! don't wait! it's too good. if you watch episode 1, and decide you didn't like it, i'll eat my hat. or some other manner of expression. ~a
[2019-05-14 11:27:54] - xpovos: ah ok. well if you have hbo you should give it a shot. the first episode was crazy good, i watched that episode more than once. if you don't have hbo, then meh, i probably wouldn't get hbo just to watch one show.
~a[2019-05-14 11:24:45] - a: I might leave it and watch it as a weekly thing after game of thrones ends. Hmmm... -Daniel
[2019-05-14 11:24:36] - a: But, my not having watched it isn't surprising. I haven't watched ANY television, outside of Netflix, in years. And even Netflix it's almost all been kids shows. Or the kids current fascination: cooking/baking contest shows. -- Xpovos
[2019-05-14 11:24:08] - a: Did it start already? I was going to try and watch it with Andrea. -Daniel
[2019-05-14 11:23:34] - a: Not only have I not watched it, I've only even barely heard about it. Normally, I've heard of other "big phenomenon" TV shows more. Stuff like how Sopranos, or The Wire, or Breaking Bad were huge. I have heard of Chernobyl, but only little ripples. -- Xpovos
[2019-05-14 11:04:21] - hi, who's watching chernobyl (hbo)? i know i've already bothered paul about this, but it's basically all i can think about right now. imo best show of 2019 and i've only seen two episodes. ~a
[2019-05-13 12:49:29] - (Maybe I should stop refreshing CNBC.... causation!) -Paul
[2019-05-13 12:36:57] - And now bitcoin is at $7.8k? I guess it's a reaction to the market? Every time I refresh CNBC the headline goes from "Dow down 500 points" to "Dow down 600 points" and every time I refresh the Google search for Bitcoin to USD it goes from $7,600 to $7,800. -Paul
[2019-05-13 11:26:03] - Maybe I just have too much time on my hands.... -Paul
[2019-05-13 11:25:36] - And now we have "The Empire Strikes Back", which is a reference to China (used to have an emperor) striking back with their own tariffs. Next up? Return of the Jedi. Maybe the return of Biden to the presidency? He's an old white male, which describes a lot of the notable Jedi in the movies. -Paul
[2019-05-13 11:24:17] - "The Phantom Menace" being a reference to how the idea of a trade deficit isn't quite the menace it sounds like it is. "Attack of the Clones" could be a reference to cheap knock-offs from China that is harming US tech companies like GoPro and Apple. "Revenge of the Sith" is obviously Trump getting his revenge by starting a trade war (wasn't that the plot of one of the prequels anyway?). -Paul
[2019-05-13 11:22:39] - Saw this headline on CNN: "China strikes back at United States with higher tariffs on American goods" and it made me think of if this ongoing trade war saga could be described using Star Wars movie titles... -Paul
[2019-05-13 11:05:26] - Daniel: I don't watch at all, but I'm very mad about how that character died.
(Seems like a safe thing to say about GoT). -Paul[2019-05-13 11:04:56] - a: I remember one day near the very top when I checked the price and it was like $14k and then 5 minutes later I checked and it was like $16k (maybe an exaggeration, but I don't think so). I remember distinctly telling Gurkie that it was going up faster than I could refresh the screen. -Paul
[2019-05-13 10:52:30] - Anyone else here watch Game of Thones? Thoughts on season 8? -Daniel
[2019-05-13 10:46:18] - yeah, don't you remember the runnup to 20k? at a certain point you miss it passing a 1k boundary entirely. you'll be like "what happened to 14k?" because the timeline gets constricted, i start putting in limit orders if i want to exit a position. you can't be expected to be watching the prices 24/7
~a[2019-05-13 09:44:04] - a: Wow, bitcoin is over $7k now? Seems like just yesterday it had crossed $6k. -Paul
[2019-05-13 08:49:26] - enforcement of these laws we already have is a good thing right? ~a
[2019-05-12 22:26:12] - a: Agreed that it's kinda dumb, but I also don't think I've ever broke it and it seems like most people follow it. I wouldn't have snitched myself, but I think it's kinda horrifying what has happened to this person. I hate almost all twitter mobs. -Paul
[2019-05-12 18:02:38] - paul: btc 24h volume passed 30b this weekend. that's never happened before. ~a
[2019-05-12 18:02:01] - paul: what's it all mean? i've always thought that the no-eating policy was kinda dumb. am i supposed to be mad at the author or the employee? or the angry mob? or the wmata administration? ~a
[2019-05-12 17:39:19] - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/author-reported-metro-worker-eating-train-now-she-might-lose-n1004716 Don't snitch on WMATA employees eating on the metro. -Paul
[2019-05-10 16:27:29] - a: And clearly, if the stock market challenges are any indications, you pick more winners and bigger ones than I do.
-Paul[2019-05-10 16:27:09] - a: Oh, I didn't mean to, sorry. I was just saying why I didn't like it. I also said I don't need to pick all the winners. -Paul
[2019-05-10 16:20:59] - yeah it seemed like you were waving me off of uber.
~a[2019-05-10 15:01:11] - a: Speaking of ride sharing last night (this morning?), you can buy Uber shares on sale. -Paul
[2019-05-10 11:35:02] - a: Right. The game I am endlessly complaining about.
-Paul[2019-05-10 11:25:51] - it was the case last night . . . it was the case for game#2. not so much in game#1
~a[2019-05-10 10:58:22] - a: Yup. Totally agreed. Zerglings tend to run around in circles looking for someplace to attack when the numbers get big on both sides. I think we can both agree that wasn't the case last night, though.
This does seem to indicate that I needed 3+ per zealot, though, so it makes more sense. -Paul[2019-05-10 10:46:45] - otoh, when i see a shit ton of zerglings, but my zealots and/or stalkers are grouped together, instead i'm like: we got this. ~a
[2019-05-10 10:45:51] - whenever i see a few lone stalkers/zealots surrounded by 3 zerglings each, i'm always like "well that sucks". ~a
[2019-05-10 10:44:48] - "is increased significantly with an increasing number of Zealots" probably because they can't be as easily surrounded. but i also believe you that brood war zealots were pretty strong. ~a
[2019-05-10 10:00:41] - Oh, wait, that might be for brood war... -Paul
[2019-05-10 09:59:49] - a: Still a little surprised your zealots did as well as they did, but I guess I needed a LOT more for them to have been effective. Should've gone with roaches I guess. -Paul
[2019-05-10 09:58:42] - a: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft/Zealot "Zealots are very effective when Zealots and Zergling fight en masse. Three Zerglings can counter one Zealot, but this ratio (more Zerglings per Zealot) is increased significantly with an increasing number of Zealots." I guess I was wrong. -Paul
[2019-05-10 09:56:00] - a: Right, and I think trimming your flowers to water your weeds (ie, selling your winners to buy more losers) is a bad strategy that I always have to actively avoid since it's so tempting to do. -Paul
[2019-05-10 09:53:39] - paul: i agree with that concept, which is why i often temper my sales. ironically, index investors always let their winnings grow. when a stock in their portfolio does well, they always (automatically) buy more (of that stock)!
~a[2019-05-10 09:50:16] - Even while working at the Fool, I sold some shares of NFLX when it got around 12% and it has tripled since then. -Paul
[2019-05-10 09:49:48] - a: I don't disagree, but I also really aspire to David Gardner's "let your winners grow" mentality of not being afraid of certain positions getting to be a big size of your portfolio. I keep telling myself that I'll let something get to 20% of my portfolio without worry about it, and yet I keep trimming things when they get around 12%... -Paul
[2019-05-10 09:42:23] - paul: "I've regretted pretty much every sell of Netflix" playing off our conversation from yesterday (actually, playing off your "rd" on this topic), you don't have to predict every sale correctly. selling something, and regretting it is actually meaningless information. you only have to be right a few times. i try to temper my sales: only sell a little bit when i'm unsure if the sale is a good move or a bad one. ~a
[2019-05-10 09:35:49] - a: I've thought about selling some SHOP since it's up so high that the difference between my conviction and the size of the position is growing... I do like to let my winners run, though, and I've regretted pretty much every sell of Netflix.... -Paul
[2019-05-09 17:41:47] - paul: sadly, i never have dry powder. to buy i must sell. i sold some vt and (20% of my) shop. ~a
[2019-05-09 14:52:12] - a: Wow, you're on a buying spree. I wish I had some dry powder to buy something today (JMIA or TTD, maybe) or if I had bought some SWAV a few days ago like I was thinking. -Paul
[2019-05-09 14:45:38] - not too excited about two more stocks with negative earnings, but i guess yolo. ~a
[2019-05-09 14:44:43] - i do now! also bynd. ~a
[2019-05-09 13:58:31] - a: If you must. It's probably better than it was earlier today... Hopefully you don't own Redfin or Jumia.
-Paul[2019-05-09 13:06:08] - can i look at my portfolio now? ~a
[2019-05-09 12:57:53] - Btw, Adrian and I are playing SC2 tonight if anybody wants to join us. -Paul
[2019-05-09 10:44:59] - paul: roger. ~a
[2019-05-09 10:20:18] - If you haven't checked your portfolio today.... don't.
-Paul[2019-05-09 09:57:36] - Xpovos: Adrian and I were talking last night, and I assume you don't want to put any money down on the presidential candidate draft, right? -Paul
[2019-05-08 12:12:59] - http://rave.dj someone made an automated mashup tool. - mig
[2019-05-08 10:00:47] - a: Looks like the Disney ticker is fixed now. -Paul
[2019-05-07 18:10:36] - <=8 ?
[2019-05-07 13:24:45] - a: Honestly, it looks like they aren't doing that.... for now. Maybe if there are >8 candidates we just give credit for a "low profile" and <=8 is "high profile" unless they specifically split them like last time? -Paul
[2019-05-07 13:13:38] - paul: good. the more debates the better. did we decide how to differentiate a "high profile" debate and a "low profile" debate? ~a
[2019-05-07 13:10:18] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Debates I guess we're looking at a dozen debates on the Democratic side, at least... -Paul
[2019-05-07 11:27:38] - paul: hmmm, i probably wouldn't be able to do wednesdays in late-june/early-july. i think thursdays? ~a
[2019-05-07 11:20:12] - a: Apparently Charterstone has recharge decks which let you play through the game a second time. Would you be interested in a rematch after this one is over? -Paul
[2019-05-07 11:11:01] - a: You didn't hear that they changed their name to Endgame? -Paul
[2019-05-07 10:57:56] - paul: the "dis" ticker symbol is broken on the spreadsheets (google finance). i wonder what happened there. ~a
[2019-05-06 16:28:53] - https://reason.com/2019/05/06/ron-paul-has-a-favorite-in-the-democratic-presidential-primary/ Boom. Guess who has TG? (It's me). -Paul
[2019-05-06 16:13:32] - a: Wow, lucky timing for you. I actually was just looking at KSHB and scratching my head wondering why it was up so big today.
-Paul[2019-05-06 16:11:09] - paul: another paul-winner: i bought kshb on friday, hah. ~a
[2019-05-05 09:09:14] - daniel: half seems really low
~a[2019-05-03 16:43:03] - Paul: Everyone has biases, and it's essentially an opinion piece. But it's clear that Graham (the author) dismissed him almost entirely out of lack of personal knowledge. There's also a lot of candidates missing, including several we picked. The ones that aren't my picks that he missed are: Michelle Obama (not running, but a lot of buzz), Adam Kokesh, Samuel Seder and Howie Hawkins. He missed four of my picks as well. -- Xpovos
[2019-05-03 16:38:34] - Xpovos: Yeah, they seem to have some biases against some candidates. I don't think he has much of a chance either, but frankly he's polling better than some people (like my pick Booker). -Paul
[2019-05-03 16:34:08] - Wow, that Yang trash talk. Cold. -- Xpovos
[2019-05-03 16:03:32] - axpovos: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/2020-candidates-president-guide/582598/ If you want to feel better (or maybe worse) about some of your picks. -Paul
[2019-05-03 16:03:08] - Daniel: Yeah, about half, assuming that VTIAX and VEMAX count as index funds.That's still half of what you have in index funds by percentage, right?
-Paul[2019-05-03 15:55:49] - Paul: "Daniel's precious index funds" - says the man with half (? something like that) of his money in index funds. -Daniel
[2019-05-03 14:45:34] - yes, very impressive. 300% or 800% in 4 years is impressive no matter how you look at it. ~a
[2019-05-03 13:09:09] - Oh, wait, you did graph VTSAX. Looked like the x-axis to me.
(I kid!) -Paul[2019-05-03 13:08:36] - I'll bet Daniel's precious index funds aren't visible.
-Paul[2019-05-03 13:06:11] - a: Heh, yes. Bitcoin is still the king, but how impressive is it that SHOP and MELI are even visible!? -Paul
[2019-05-03 12:49:53] - paul: . . . yeah. ~a
[2019-05-03 12:41:48] - I first bought MELI back in 2016 for $132 a share. Today, it is up $102 a share. -Paul
[2019-05-03 10:56:18] - a: For as crazy as MELI has been lately, look back at the performance of SHOP from the 2017 challenge. It has been even better. Should've re-upped on that one too. Almost doubled YTD. -Paul
[2019-05-03 10:45:21] - "funny" ~a
[2019-05-03 10:43:31] - a: It'll be funny if I barely beat you at the buzzer again and then you soar past me after the end like in 2018... -Paul
[2019-05-03 10:42:18] - a: Freedom Portfolio is up 3% right now.
-Paul[2019-05-03 10:12:23] - you might squeak one in under the wire again. i'm looking at 2018q3 with ~40 market days left and we're neck and neck. yikes. ~a
[2019-05-03 10:08:15] - paul: 17%?! ~a
[2019-05-03 09:12:25] - daniel: despite my downvote, it looks like someone answered my question. sweeeeet. ~a
[2019-05-03 09:11:07] - Between MELI and Amazon possibly popping due to the news of Berkshire investing in them.... this could be one of the biggest jumps in my portfolio in terms of dollar amounts (not necessarily percentage) in a long time. *Fingers Crossed* -Paul
[2019-05-03 09:05:02] - a: Yeah, I think it might be my most picked stock in the challenges. Picked it in the first one, picked it as soon as I could two challenges later and then again in the first official 2019 fantasy investing season. That's why it's baffling to me why I had such a small position a quarter ago. Glad I fixed it in between earnings reports. Wish I had earlier. -Paul
[2019-05-02 20:27:57] - https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-likes-dick-cheney-praise-war-criminal-walter-mondale-vice-president-1413456 TIL that treating someone who you have a political disagreement with as maybe some sort of human being is a mortal sin of the highest order. - mig
[2019-05-02 17:14:40] - this isn't all your eggs in one basket. but you have that one egg in all of your god damn baskets. ~a
[2019-05-02 17:13:38] - hell, you'll probably pass me in 2017 too jesus. ~a
[2019-05-02 17:12:25] - after hours: 11%. ouch. that's going to hurt me in both fucking challenges? god damn. ~a
[2019-05-02 16:49:25] - MELI crushing it after earnings... -Paul
[2019-05-02 14:56:58] - i wondered the same thing. probably . . . something i did wrong? maybe it's a boring question. honestly i sat and thought probably *way* too long about that exact same question. ~a
[2019-05-02 14:48:45] - a: Who downvotes in an ask math questions thread? -Daniel
[2019-05-02 13:27:55] - for better or worse, i posted to reddit here. we'll see if i get any replies. ~a
[2019-05-02 13:09:31] - i know they have a *math* one. would that be better or would posting to reddit (/r/math ?) be better. ~a
[2019-05-02 13:08:50] - maybe i should ask stack overflow? ~a
[2019-05-02 13:08:31] - the problem is it's no longer a geometric series, so i'm not sure what to even google. ~a
[2019-05-02 13:07:56] - xpovos: understood, yeah. i know it's simplifying a series, something i've always been bad at. ~a
[2019-05-02 13:00:45] - a: That last one seems non-trivial to solve, but a spreadsheet could handle it. And allow for some manipulation of variables as well. -- Xpovos
[2019-05-02 12:55:24] - going one step further: here's the financial math problem i've been unable to solve: account makes 2% per year, starts with $100, and i add $10 on the first year, and i increase that amount by 1% per year every year. how many years until i get to $200? this seems like the prototypical retirement problem: i add $10 to my retirement accounts this year, but next year i'll maybe have a raise, and be able to put 1% (or whatever) extra. ~a
[2019-05-02 12:49:18] - the next "financial math" problem i wrestle with: account makes 2% per year, starts with $100. how many years for it to get to $200? (ln(200/100)/ln(1.02) = 35 yr *OR* NPER(2%,0,-100,200) ... why-for nper wants 100 to be negative?!). next situation: account makes 2%/year. starts with $100, and i add $10 each year, how many years for it to get to $200? (ln((200-100)/(100+10/.02)+1)/ln(1.02) = 8 yr *OR* NPER(2%,-10,-100,200) ) ~a
[2019-05-02 12:37:29] - Xpovos: Right!? It's crazy how unable I am to do any kind of thinking and talking at the same time. Being able to talk seems to require 100% of my brain power. -Paul
[2019-05-02 12:36:48] - a: Did we get it wrong on the podcast? I might've said something like $112 because I was trying to do the math on the spur of the moment and probably overshot big time with the compounding. -Paul
[2019-05-02 12:35:57] - a: Yeah. running the compound interest calculation in my head while simultaneously talking about it was not a good choice. -- Xpovos
[2019-05-02 12:32:29] - a: Yeah it made my head explode a bit yesterday when I first saw it. I talked to my dev lead about it. Its crazy. -Daniel
[2019-05-02 12:28:24] - wow yuck. something sounds wrong there. most of our merge requests are like three or four files, and are usually less than a week of work. there are exceptions to that, but this sounds very "yikes" to me. ~a
[2019-05-02 12:20:37] - Random aside but wanting to share. I had a coworker yesterday submit a pull request that I have to review before it gets merged to our main branch. That part is normal. This PR in particular? He's been working on it for a month and its 116 files.... YIKES. -Daniel
[2019-05-02 12:15:27] - aaron: i'm looking at my venmo receipt this morning and kicking myself for making such a *dumb* bet. but otoh, it was SO CLOSE! i was like seconds off. ~a
[2019-05-02 12:13:05] - paul/xpovos: 100 * 1.02**5 = 110.40. amortized monthly: 100 * (.02/12+1)**(5*12) = 110.50. ~a
[2019-05-02 12:07:14] - paul: maybe not though. if we've learned nothing from madoff (which is probably super-relevant to SMAs) and the housing crisis, it's that we never learn from our mistakes. and that we're doomed to repeat our mistakes. ~a
[2019-05-02 12:04:25] - paul: if i had to guess, it would be that SMAs are required to disclose their holdings to specific people (like their trustees? and the sec?), but maybe not to the general public? ~a
[2019-05-02 11:36:29] - a: Mostly wondering if I can get a sense of a fund managers ideas without having to pay a management fee. I'm guessing SMAs don't follow the same rules... -Paul
[2019-05-02 11:28:36] - paul: it's probably required. why? every mutual fund and etf i've ever bought made their holdings public at least monthly. for an etf they're often also required to go one step further: define the method in which their baskets are created and destroyed. ~a
[2019-05-02 11:16:54] - Does anybody know what, if any, disclosure rules there are around mutual funds or indexes? Are indexes required to make publicly available their holdings? It seems like mutual funds might be required to every quarter or so. Is that the case for all? -Paul
[2019-05-02 09:25:49] - a: I guess we could allow trading. Why not? You want Harris? -Paul
[2019-05-02 09:25:34] - a: Yeah, I heard. She seems to be good at the point scoring against the other team part of politics, which is pretty important in getting your name out there. Xpovos nailed why I went with her. I think she's got a real solid shot at both the top of the ticket and the VP slot, which I can't say for Biden or Bernie. -Paul
[2019-05-02 00:43:28] - It was a solid #1 pick. I think she's got a really good chance of being picked as VP, even if she doesn't get the nomination herself, which is still a longshot, but far less than a lot of people we picked up. So a nice dual threat, a lot of upside. -- Xpovos
[2019-05-01 19:09:48] - paul: is trading allowed?
~a[2019-05-01 18:57:28] - an excerpt. not sure if i agree with the overall logic, but still it's thrilling. ~a
[2019-05-01 18:51:46] - paul: i know we like to make fun of grandstanding in senate hearings, but your #1 pick, harris, apparently did really well today against the AG regarding his (fraudulent) mueller summary. ~a
[2019-05-01 15:21:03] - i added my notes to a separate sheet (i didn't come up with a score for the libertarians or green) ~a
[2019-05-01 15:19:16] - a: I compromised and paid for it. -Paul
[2019-05-01 15:16:06] - paul: you got your number 1 pick though, right?
~a[2019-05-01 15:05:56] - Boom. Done. I kinda hate my team. I somehow ended up not getting either of the top two people I wanted OR the two people polling highest right now despite having the #1 pick. -Paul
[2019-05-01 14:58:44] - paul: finish us up! ~a
[2019-05-01 14:05:21] - deal. ~a
[2019-05-01 13:53:40] - How about that one only counts as a point if he's at the top of the ticket. -- Xpovos
[2019-05-01 12:31:09] - Xpovos: Heh, I think it's fine, but I also hadn't considered that it would probably be an almost certain point for you. -Paul
[2019-05-01 12:00:16] - Paul: Time for Mr. Irrelevant, unless my last pick is another problematic one. -- Xpovos
[2019-05-01 11:33:22] - Dumb question alert: Is XIRR basically CAGR? -Paul
[2019-05-01 10:44:56] - a: In a vacuum, decentralization would probably be better than centralized, but I don't think the extra hassle of maintaining a blockchain would be worth the trade-off. -Paul
[2019-05-01 10:38:41] - paul: nah, i'm still in the black on ax. also, i'm not in for very much. ~a
[2019-05-01 10:38:03] - paul: if you don't want decentralization (i question this presumption) then i'd use a database solution. even without decentralization (i.e. database solution), checksums and public/private key signatures, (maybe versioning too?) are useful features to include in your contract system. ~a
[2019-05-01 10:35:34] - xpovos: done. ~a
[2019-05-01 10:13:09] - a: Oof, sorry about AX. Looks like I steered you wrong with that one. -Paul
[2019-05-01 10:10:33] - a: Purely hypothetically, if I wanted to make an app which required keeping track of a lot of different "contracts" between different people (but had no real need for decentralization), would I be better off using some cloud based database solution or a blockchain based solution? -Paul
[2019-05-01 00:04:19] - a: You're on the "clock." -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 22:25:35] - Xpovos: Dropping the long shots now. You're up. -Paul
[2019-04-30 17:00:14] - Paul's up. I'm basically making VP-level picks now, and long shots at those, I think. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 16:51:44] - xpovos: ok, done. ~a
[2019-04-30 16:43:14] - man you guys took all of my picks. i'm really stuck. ~a
[2019-04-30 15:25:12] - Although I'm starting to think back to 2016, when I was absolutely positive Clinton had too many negatives to possibly win the nomination and couldn't figure out which of the amazingly deep Republican bench would win after the brief Trump fad faded.... and I worry that maybe I should've taken the hair-sniffing gaffe-making old white male. -Paul
[2019-04-30 15:23:50] - Xpovos: Not Sexy Vegan? -Paul
[2019-04-30 15:09:22] - Paul: "Kingtamer" should be Mr. Irrelevant. Make it hapen. https://qz.com/1590867/all-671-americans-currently-running-for-president -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 15:05:36] - Xpovos: Yeah, frankly, I suspect all the picks from here on out are longshots to get even a single point on our scoring system. -Paul
[2019-04-30 15:02:24] - Paul: I agree, it's a huge longshot, but I could see him going back to the LP or even to Constitution. And if he ends up pulling some significant percentage of the votes or in polls, I may be clamoring for his inclusion in the rules at that point. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 14:56:50] - Thought about it, but despite polls showing a possible appetite for a Trump alternative, the polls have been brutal for individual names thrown out as challengers. -Paul
[2019-04-30 14:46:20] - bill weld! so close to taking that one. ~a
[2019-04-30 14:31:30] - I've done a ton of reaching starting with my first pick. That's why I wanted to go last. Then all my picks don't seem like reaches and I would've gotten more people I wanted. -Paul
[2019-04-30 14:30:57] - Xpovos: Yeah... it was also mostly a joke.
-Paul[2019-04-30 14:28:35] - There, I picked another white male. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 14:26:33] - a: Yeah, Paul took Castro in what I consider a bit of a reach. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 14:26:10] - Crap. There I go praising your "white male" pick after picking mostly white men myself. How predictable. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 14:25:22] - oh wow i didn't realize castro was gone. i considered castro in my top-3 of the remaining pool. oops. ~a
[2019-04-30 14:24:56] - Paul: The second one is... for the advertisers, not the end users, right? -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 14:24:21] - Heh, Justin Amash is the first "white" male I've chosen (assuming you count him as white and don't count Julian Castro. I sometimes get confused as to what counts). -Paul
[2019-04-30 14:22:42] - For the record, I know I was the one who brought up Facebook, but I was also thinking about Amazon and Alphabet and other companies that I think Warren wanted to break up. -Paul
[2019-04-30 14:20:49] - Xpovos: Ability to share news / pictures / videos / etc with large groups of friends instantaneously. Ability to get highly targeted ads in one place.
-Paul[2019-04-30 14:18:38] - Xpovos: I don't think he runs for the LP nom, but if he does, I think he gets it. LP might be tired of Republican retreads but Amash is almost the model libertarian. -Paul
[2019-04-30 14:18:12] - Paul: Tangent, then. What "useful stuff" do we get from Facebook. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 14:17:43] - Added another female and went for the big LP fish while everybody else was dancing around with posers. Xpovos is up. -Paul
[2019-04-30 14:17:43] - Nice, I like the Amash pick there. I don't think he wins, but it's better than a lot of similarly placed names. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 14:16:02] - Daniel: Basically alienating two out of three big sources of money and while I know it's fashionable to hate on Facebook these days, I feel like it's hard to demonize these companies that tons of people voluntarily use and from which we get a lot of useful stuff for free. -Paul
[2019-04-30 14:15:58] - Paul: Your turn to wheel. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 14:14:56] - Hunter and Stein are both Green. I have candidates for LP and Constitution on my list, but I'm drafting "strategically" so as to optimize my chances with interesting candidates. So... no Constitution then. Got it. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 14:14:34] - Daniel: Warren (along with Biden and Bernie) were three candidates I was pretty sure I wasn't going to end up with because I felt like they were all "over-rated" in current polls. All seem to have pretty major flaws that I saw sinking them before they could get the nomination. Warren's was her "lie" over being native american and her attacks on big tech and Wall Street. -Paul
[2019-04-30 14:11:00] - I'm surprised that Warren fell so far. I thought she would have gone higher up. -Daniel
[2019-04-30 13:46:48] - xpovos: europe. ~a
[2019-04-30 13:34:43] - ok sure. ~a
[2019-04-30 13:32:24] - Okay, how about we use the cut off of needing to have gotten a million votes in the last presidential election? That restricts it to LP and Green... -Paul
[2019-04-30 13:31:37] - oh i thought hunter and stein were both green. ~a
[2019-04-30 13:30:19] - a: Other than Green and Libertarian. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 13:29:44] - regardless, someone add the iteration of what the definition of minor party is. i already added a rule
~a[2019-04-30 13:29:02] - paul: that's a fine rule (to be clear, i'm also fine adding "constitution" to the list because it's border-line), but i don't think we can know now for sure whether they'll have ballot access do we? ~a
[2019-04-30 13:28:46] - Xpovos: Wow, your first female is from the Green Party? Feels like a token pick to me.
-Paul[2019-04-30 13:27:53] - Sure, I could go either way. The Libertarian Party and Green Party are probably the only two who have ballot access on enough states to win an electoral majority, right? Is Reform still around? -Paul
[2019-04-30 13:27:53] - xpovos: other than green? ~a
[2019-04-30 13:26:12] - a: Constitution is the only one I was considering a pick from. I can kill that one easily enough. *note to Secret Service, I mean kill my decision to fantasy pick a candidate, not kill the candidate* -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 13:25:04] - There you go, I've picked a female candidate. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 13:24:54] - paul: before we get too far down on the list, can we iterate the entire "minor" party list? otherwise we might disagree on what constitutes a minor party. how about: libertarian, green, and that's it? (constitution party, "independent" party, justice party, socialism party, etc rarely get much more than 0.1% of the popular vote) ~a
[2019-04-30 13:23:40] - Xpovos: Back to you. Yeah, I like the VP chances of a lot of my picks, but am having trouble seeing them at the top of the ticket. That might be a problem... -Paul
[2019-04-30 13:10:51] - Paul: You took the Harris first, I think she's got a good shot that the VP ticket. I'll probably snag another woman for a minor party chance. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 13:10:06] - Paul: Europe. (You're up.) -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 13:08:41] - a: Man, you wrapped up the socialist wing with Bernie and Warren, huh? -Paul
[2019-04-30 13:08:12] - Xpovos: Just gonna say... you don't have any women on your team yet.... -Paul
[2019-04-30 13:01:14] - xpovos: back to you. ~a
[2019-04-30 13:00:32] - Retracted and modified. We're back in the hunt. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 12:48:57] - xpovos: take it back. i've added to the rules. ~a
[2019-04-30 12:48:10] - He should get to pick again if the rules are changing. -Daniel
[2019-04-30 12:46:46] - Daniel: Should he be allowed to take the pick back? I think so. -Paul
[2019-04-30 12:44:38] - a: I'm OK with either. I think taking the pick back is better for me, but I'm content with losing it on that longshot. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 12:43:13] - a: 19. And yeah, that's fine with me if it's fine with Andrew. -Paul
[2019-04-30 12:41:50] - paul: (541917/20071 + 1000000000000425590000000045281711769/1000000000000212811 + 904/17)%3 = 20/17ths. i'm pretty sure that doesn't work. i think 17 is disallowed. ~a
[2019-04-30 12:41:14] - xpovos/paul: are you ok with daniel's ruling? if so we should codify the rule and allow xpovos to re-pick. ~a
[2019-04-30 12:40:02] - I think Trump disallowed for GOP makes sense to me since thats the gimmie case. If you think Trump will run 3rd party that seems in keeping with the spirit of the competition. -Daniel
[2019-04-30 12:36:43] - a: I pick 17 as my prime number. -Paul
[2019-04-30 12:35:27] - paul: that's fine too. maybe we need a third-party. to figure out which of the four scenarios we're going to go with (all four of them should allow for xpovos to change his vote hopefully). daniel?! we need you. trustless systems be damned. ~a
[2019-04-30 12:34:30] - paul: well you should decide which one (GOP allowed *or* Trump disallowed for GOP *or* Trump disallowed entirely) and add it to the rules tab. also, you should probably make sure xpovos is ok with the "rule"
~a[2019-04-30 12:33:47] - Or, if you two want to let him keep his pick AND let him have the automatic points for winning the R nomination, that's fine too.
-Paul[2019-04-30 12:33:13] - I thought we were excluding Trump but allowing for the possibility of somebody else (Weld, Kasich, etc) to primary him somehow if people wanted to bet on that. If we want to allow Trump but exclude him from getting points for winning the Republican primary, I suppose that's just as good. I'm also fine with Andrew taking his pick back. -Paul
[2019-04-30 12:29:27] - well if you want to change your pick (because the rules haven't exactly been codified anywhere that i can see), i'm fine with you changing your pick. if you want to keep the pick, i'm fine with that too. ~a
[2019-04-30 12:28:40] - if xpovos is hoping that trump will *lose* the republican nomination, then *win* a major or minor party nomination other than the GOP, i'm fine with that strategy. ~a
[2019-04-30 12:28:13] - a: That's been my confusion. I thought we did, but it didn't get excluded. I'm content keeping the pick regardless. I can see a world where somehow Trump loses the R nomination and gets the bid on a third party ticket in a way that affects the election outcome. So if we're excluding R and I've just "wasted" my pick, that's fine. It's a longshot then instead of a freebie. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 12:26:59] - if we were including the republican nomination, he'd obviously be the #1 pick. xpovos, if you want trump for a non-republican nomination, i'll let you have him, but i doubt he'll win. ~a
[2019-04-30 12:26:08] - xpovos/paul: i'm pretty sure we're not talking about the republican nomination. like, we talked about this, i thought. ~a
[2019-04-30 12:25:00] - i'm confused by donald trump. i mean, honestly fivethirtyeight had a section for "trump" and i was so confused by that. can someone explain? ~a
[2019-04-30 12:24:52] - Xpovos: Heh, I thought we specifically excluded him, but if we didn't then that's on us. -Paul
[2019-04-30 12:24:15] - yeah. make it public? ~a
[2019-04-30 12:24:11] - Daniel: But if you wanted to follow along you should've played.
-Paul[2019-04-30 12:23:56] - Daniel: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nmcvoMBgl-duZLGYZVUZRdUFldS7wIAEiQaXhH0AHo/edit?usp=sharing Try this. -Paul
[2019-04-30 12:17:26] - Paul: You should share the doc so I can follow along to see picks. -Daniel
[2019-04-30 12:14:46] - OK, I've made my "controversial" pick. Let's see if this breaks things. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 12:09:59] - a: Sounds like Warren might back around to you! -Paul
[2019-04-30 12:06:28] - Paul: FWIW, you did manage to pick who I was likely going to take with my next pick, so now I need to think it over and take the next best. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 12:06:13] - Fine, my picks are in: Booker and Gabbard. With Harris as my #1 pick, I'm apparently going all-in on attractiveness. -Paul
[2019-04-30 12:03:58] - And now I want to pick three people because I know none of them are coming back around to me... -Paul
[2019-04-30 12:01:31] - Paul: Ha. You've had one pick. That is just highly amusing to me, expecting or even talking about "people falling to you." -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 12:00:02] - You both suck. I really wanted Beto and Buttigieg as the #3 and #4 picks. I'm deflated now that I got neither. Shouldn't have waited for them to fall to me at 6. -Paul
[2019-04-30 11:58:49] - So... Paul, you're back up and get to wheel now. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 11:58:35] - It's a strong first pick. Low risk, moderate reward. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 11:58:22] - I've picked. I took Biden because I figured I had to. I think he's a terrible candidate and I can't really see him winning, either the nomination, or the Presidency, but he's one of the few "moderate" D's in the field while that rest of the pack pushes further left. So that differentiates him. Along with his name recognition, he's got a huge head start, and maybe that's enough. Ot
[2019-04-30 11:32:10] - a: Yeah, and I didn't pick one of the two people I wanted with my first pick. I really don't like Biden and Bernie's chances, despite them being the front runners now. Before he was picked as Obama's VP Biden was the guy who always ran and never got anywhere because he's a gaffe machine. Not sure that changes. -Paul
[2019-04-30 11:27:16] - paul, btw, i *was* third, and you guys *didn't* pick biden and bernie. ~a
[2019-04-30 11:26:00] - he said "person" which means it's a woman. oh, man, such an open book. LAUGHING
~a[2019-04-30 11:24:43] - I was really hoping to draft third so you two would take Biden and Bernie and I could take Buttigieg and the other person I want. -Paul
[2019-04-30 11:24:12] - a: Ha! You fool! You fell for the oldest trick in the book. I wanted Buttigieg! Wait...
-Paul[2019-04-30 11:21:42] - paul: sounds good, huh? then i pick buttigieg! pick done. xpovos, your turn. ~a
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