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[2019-04-30 11:21:18] - Btw, thank god for Shopify. It is single handedly keeping my portfolio in the green (in the black?) today. -Paul
[2019-04-30 11:20:53] - a: Sounds.... good? Now I don't know if I need to reverse psychology you or not. She's definitely in my top 30.
-Paul[2019-04-30 11:19:21] - paul: i love it. so, i'm thinking of picking warren as my second pick. what are your thoughts on that?
~a[2019-04-30 11:16:25] - a: I can help you decide to make sure you don't pick one of the ones I want.
-Paul[2019-04-30 11:08:21] - i can't decide for my second pick. i'm juggling three different people. ~a
[2019-04-30 10:57:13] - Ugh, three more picks until I get another one. This is awful. -Paul
[2019-04-30 10:56:42] - Xpovos: Now you know why I didn't want to go first. -Paul
[2019-04-30 10:54:12] - a; I've made my pick, as unhappy with it as I am. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 10:53:12] - Paul: I'll post my pic into the doc, assuming I can, and notify here that a is up. The trick is picking a candidate that fits the rule structure, when I'm still not 100% sure of the rules. But that's on me. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-30 10:30:50] - Are we drafting here or in the google doc? -Paul
[2019-04-30 10:30:05] - a: Yup. I'll try to be online around 9pm. -Paul
[2019-04-29 21:48:04] - fuck yah. you? ~a
[2019-04-29 21:18:41] - a: You up for SC2 on Thursday? -Paul
[2019-04-29 18:12:00] - daniel: "are they needed (in this case)? Always an important question." i don't think that's an important question here. exercising our brains is a net-benefit. ~a
[2019-04-29 16:35:06] - FWIW, I've also successfully tunneled (for now, we'll see how long my TOR connection lasts). -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 16:34:09] - Paul: Which is why I thought it was interesting because it does get more R's into the mix. But I don't think it's necessary at all. It's just what I remembered. But that's part of why I'm making sure I get the rules straight before I make my pick. No sense picking someone like Mike Huckabee (not that I would anyway) if it's a flat out terrible pick for the rule set. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 16:30:03] - Xpovos: Happy to consider the cabinet idea, but it requires us to draw this out until after the election and could get weird with having to guess who Trump might appoint... -Paul
[2019-04-29 16:26:35] - Paul: OK, so the Cabinet idea is gone. And it's just candidates, P, VP and for R/D/L/G/etc. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 16:25:50] - I also suggested maybe: 1 point for being invited to a high profile debate. 0.5 points for being invited to a low profile debate. (we'll have to find a way to agree on which debates count) -Paul
[2019-04-29 16:25:21] - Xpovos: Not quite. Here is what I have written down (all open for discussion, of course): 3 points for getting a major party nomination. 2 points for getting a major party VP spot. 1 point for getting a minor party nomination. 0.5 points for getting a minor party VP spot. -Paul
[2019-04-29 15:13:55] - Confirming our points scoring system: we select a person from the universe of people. If that person is elected President, we score 3 points. If that person gets a Cabinet position (within [time]) we score 1 point. Is that correct? -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 15:12:23] - Paul: I'm firewalled from Google Docs at work these days, I'm going to try to tunnel, but I'm going to assume it fails, because I only succeed rarely. So I'll post my picks here for now. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 15:11:23] - Daniel: It's an entertaining use of the technology, if nothing else. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 15:05:58] - a: Trustless systems exist - but are they needed (in this case)? Always an important question. -Daniel
[2019-04-29 14:59:33] - Okay, shared with both of you. These are just proposals. You guys have edit capabilities, so this isn't a trustless distributed system since you could go in and change everything. Just don't.
-Paul[2019-04-29 14:55:59] - yah. ~a
[2019-04-29 14:54:56] - a: Sure. How about I share a google sheet with you two and I'll have a tab with proposed rules that we can discuss? -Paul
[2019-04-29 14:39:20] - paul: well since we're starting, should we set out the rules somewhere? at least specify the points for each thing? (you mentioned "I guess we could give 1 point for being invited to (any?) high profile debate and 0.5 points for being invited to (any?) low profile debate?" but i don't know how much further you went). i've never done this kinda thing before so you guys have like way more context than i do on what are normal rules. ~a
[2019-04-29 14:36:22] - daniel: your system can be gamed! trustless distributed systems exist. we're science majors mostly, we can figure this shit out.
~a[2019-04-29 14:15:26] - Damn, I didn't want to go first. I feel compelled to choose one of the front-runners even though I don't like their chances and I'm worried the people I really want are going to be gone when my next pick comes up. Okay, fine, I'll go with Kamala Harris, since she's just so awful on so many issues that it seems inevitable she'll be the nominee. -Paul
[2019-04-29 14:14:55] - I could have just drawn names out of a hat for you guys
-Daniel[2019-04-29 14:09:58] - xpovos: google "arbitrary precision calculator". first one that came up was this one which you can literally paste in the text i have below: (541917/20071 + 1000000000000425590000000045281711769/1000000000000212811 + 904/113)%3 and it gives you the same result. ~a
[2019-04-29 14:06:31] - At the end of the day, I'm just trusting Adrian here, because his numbers are sufficiently large that the calculation is too cumbersome for me to bother by hand, and every "calculator" I have easy access to just rounds. So he could make the final answer what ever he likes and I'd be willing to go along with it.
-- Xpovos[2019-04-29 14:06:13] - paul/xpovos: ok, so. (541917/20071 + 1000000000000425590000000045281711769/1000000000000212811 + 904/113)%3 = 1. 1 means paul starts, (then xpovos then adrian). ~a
[2019-04-29 14:02:47] - 113 -Paul
[2019-04-29 14:00:56] - 20071 -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 13:44:40] - paul/xpovos: ok, now everybody reveal their prime numbers. my prime number was 1000000000000212811. ~a
[2019-04-29 13:23:17] - OK, my number is 541,917. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 13:13:31] - Xpovos: Although I do think the Disney content leaving Netflix (which is highly correlated, obviously, but is a slightly different issue) could be problematic if they lose other content (like The Office and Friends) around the same time. -Paul
[2019-04-29 13:12:48] - Xpovos: I actually tend to agree with Netflix that Disney+ shouldn't hurt them much. I feel like either Netflix has something for you now (and hence you are a subscriber) or not (and then you aren't a subscriber), and the existence of Disney+ is only going to affect people whose budgets can only pay for one or the other. -Paul
[2019-04-29 13:06:07] - xpovos: sorry i probably didn't describe it well enough, but the numbers we're adding up are . . . the random numbers that you're multiplying by a prime? yeah, the point of this was to create a one-way-hash that could be used to get a random number between zero and two. ~a
[2019-04-29 13:02:57] - My take: Any time I want to watch a movie, it's not available on Netflix digital. They have a lot of content, but not a lot of it is geared towards me. There's nothing "must have" on the service at all. Neither for me, nor for my kids. They're better than Hulu and Prime, so they've won out so far. But Disney+ will beat them on price and content I care about. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 13:01:38] - Netflix guidance is that Disney+ won't hurt their subscription base. That may be true, but Disney+ plus this might. https://www.fastcompany.com/90341399/netflix-prices-just-went-up-again-heres-every-rate-hike-ever -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 12:51:42] - a: It shouldn't be gameable, but it might not be fair. Any prime number will be odd. So odd+odd+odd=odd, which means a mod(2) won't happen. That may make second position less likely. I don't think it matters in any statistically meaningful way. Just that summing the random numbers rather than the primes might be more random/fair. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 12:09:36] - paul: i don't think you can game it. ~a
[2019-04-29 12:03:54] - Xpovos: I just multiplied a number and a prime number. You can try to game it if you care who goes first. I just viewed it as a way to randomize things. -Paul
[2019-04-29 11:59:10] - The random numbers get summed, or the prime numbers? -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 11:45:24] - xpovos: "OK! we each pick a random number and multiply it by a large prime number, then post it here! then after we've all posted our random number times a prime number, we reveal our prime numbers. it's us three, right? so the numbers summed modulus three: if it's zero i start, (then you then xpovos). if it's one you start, (then xpovos then me). if it's two xpovos starts, (then me, then you)." -Paul
[2019-04-29 11:35:12] - Paul: I think it was just delayed, it was there when I checked again. As for prime numbers... I need more context, I think. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 11:33:54] - Xpovos: Did you ever figure out why episode 5 didn't download for you? Also, do you have a prime number for the draft?
-PAul[2019-04-29 11:33:33] - Daniel: Agreed. I'm hoping to get my "reactions" piece out later this week where I take a deeper dive into some questionable things, but it's a definitely a good sign for a movie when the plot rests on something that doesn't make much sense but I still enjoyed it anyway. -Paul
[2019-04-29 11:00:18] - a: We spent a bit of time analyzing various plot elements for the podcast, but I think the general consensus was "it was pretty good," even after the analyzing. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-29 10:57:52] - daniel: yeah, i don't have any quibbles. i always prefer to under-analyze a plot-line. only rarely will a plot-line be so out of wack to annoy me. ~a
[2019-04-29 10:54:04] - Endgame was real good. I think there were quibbles with it but overall an excellent end to the crazy MCU buildup over the years. -Daniel
[2019-04-28 15:00:18] - no, you're a 0
[2019-04-28 14:36:53] - 0
[2019-04-26 14:55:11] - a: Wow, I didn't even get a warning this time (although I am at work). I did hear some other phones going off. -Paul
[2019-04-26 14:53:09] - paul: double tornado. you had a tornado in reston like last week, wtf is wrong with reston? ~a
[2019-04-26 10:57:03] - last night i got 8 hours and it was sweeeeet. ~a
[2019-04-26 10:49:58] - a: Also being super excited about Endgame and Amazon earnings and our upcoming draft.
-Paul[2019-04-26 10:49:23] - a: I think they recently had a good earnings report... maybe yesterday? My sense of time is all screwed up after consecutive nights of ~5 hours of sleep and the caffeine to keep me awake in between. -Paul
[2019-04-26 10:43:32] - paul: i guess ford is up because tesla is down? ~a
[2019-04-26 10:28:55] - aaron: Your poopy fart portfolio is randomly up like 4% today. -Paul
[2019-04-25 14:54:10] - paul: "I'm assuming pedestrians aren't allowed on the road?" they are but probably in fewer situations. for instance, a pedestrian is definitely allowed in the road if there's no sidewalk. this is actually common in many areas: your street doesn't have a sidewalk for instance, and you're allowed there. neither do a bunch of streets near me. ~a
[2019-04-25 14:52:06] - "people who ignore pedestrian signals annoy me" yeah me too
i've started to wave my arms when i'm using a crosswalk and people ignore me (i start waving them a little at first, then i'll wave them violently if that doesn't work) ~a[2019-04-25 14:50:05] - paul: you are correct, cyclists are allowed to be on both the sidewalk and the road (46.2-904 in virginia and 18-1201.9 in PARTS of dc). (the devil is in the details: but as you'd expect, the pedestrian has the right-of-way when a bike is on the sidewalk) ~a
[2019-04-25 14:48:54] - a: Is that the intersection in question? I didn't watch the video, so I'm not making any judgments on this particular incident, but I will say that in general people who ignore pedestrian signals annoy me. -Paul
[2019-04-25 14:46:55] - a: Uh... I thought it was illegal in places to ride your bike on a sidewalk, and that's why people were supposed to bike on the road? So cyclists are allowed to be on both the sidewalk and the road? I'm assuming pedestrians aren't allowed on the road? I'm also not trying to be glib, I just don't know the law and the law has honestly never made sense to me so I can't logic it out either. -Paul
[2019-04-25 14:45:56] - paul: i just can't ~a
[2019-04-25 14:41:44] - paul: the cop abruptly accelerated while turning right on red and hit a pedestrian in the fucking crosswalk. to be completely even-handed it was a do-not-walk sign, but the cars in that direction had a green (which is legally what matters in dc, but not so in nova). ~a
[2019-04-25 14:39:59] - paul: i'm glad you linked to this. "Crawley . . . was cited for not paying attention" lol, no way, watch the video! it's super cut-and-dry. i'm guessing the fucking cops didn't watch their own video. we should ask dee about this. ~a
[2019-04-25 14:35:54] - paul: i don't think i understand your question. people are allowed on the sidewalk, and allowed on the street, and allowed on the crosswalk while on a bike, in fairfax county, in arlington, in alexandria, and in most of dc (you don't have to walk your bike). your question confuses me: i'm not being sarcastic, i really just don't understand it. ~a
[2019-04-25 14:22:14] - https://intrinsicinvesting.com/2019/04/22/how-many-stocks-should-you-own-in-your-portfolio/ I thought this was an interesting article on ideal portfolio size and how many active fund managers have way too many positions and that hurts their ability to out-perform the market. -Paul
[2019-04-25 14:00:14] - a: https://wtop.com/fairfax-county/2019/04/fairfax-polic-criticized-over-cyclist-collision/ Wait, so are cyclists supposed to be on the sidewalk or street in Fairfax County? -Paul
[2019-04-25 13:42:09] - a: Although it's a little worrisome that both seem to be intent on competing with each other. Square bought Weebly to start getting more into eCommerce and Omnichannel stuff and Shopify just today announced a retail point of sale system. -Paul
[2019-04-25 13:41:23] - a: Nice! At least two of those have (hopefully) worked out for you... I think. Oddly enough, I ended up selling Axos a few months ago, but I still love SHOP and SQ. -Paul
[2019-04-25 13:35:36] - . . . if it weren't for the challenge, i never would have bought ax, shop, or sq. ~a
[2019-04-25 13:34:08] - yep. i take it even further, i often buy at least a few of *your* stocks irl. ~a
[2019-04-25 13:33:59] - a: You're a lot closer to being back to winning them all than I am, though. I'm almost as far away from you as Daniel is from me.
-Paul[2019-04-25 13:31:13] - a: Yeah, you only took the lead in 2019 this week, I think. As usual, I'm torn, because oftentimes the stocks that are helping you win are ones I own myself (or I own bitcoin) so I can't root against them... -Paul
[2019-04-25 13:24:50] - paul: this morning was the first time i was winning all four of the challenges (on "today" mode). though, that didn't last long. ~a
[2019-04-25 13:11:00] - paul: that's fair. since i went first, and used a large number, i don't think it can easily be gamed. ~a
[2019-04-25 12:56:25] - a: Okay. I believe you. I just don't care enough what position I am in to either try to game this or prevent it from being gamed. -Paul
[2019-04-25 12:32:26] - paul: no. whoever goes third won't have the prime number inputs and won't be able to game it unless they can factorize large numbers. factorizing large numbers is mathematically difficult even with computers. in fact, if factorizing large numbers was mathematically easy, we wouldn't be able to do encryption. https wouldn't be a thing. ~a
[2019-04-25 11:24:14] - a: Won't whoever goes third always be able to game it? Anyway, I don't really care where I draft and if anything, probably don't want to go first, so I'll just give mine: 904.
-Paul[2019-04-25 11:16:37] - i guess i should also specify that your "prime number" should be larger than your other number (in case both of your numbers are prime, we can't let people swap their numbers). ~a
[2019-04-25 11:14:51] - paul: my number (prime number multiplied by a number prime-or-otherwise) is 1000000000000425590000000045281711769. ~a
[2019-04-25 11:10:24] - probably not, no. the larger your number and the larger the prime number the better. you can use three digits if you want, but if xpovos also uses three digits, i'll totally game the results . . . wait . . . do i *want* to go first?
~a[2019-04-25 11:05:13] - a: Sounds good. How large of a prime number? 3 digits okay? -Paul
[2019-04-25 11:02:48] - paul: nope. OK! we each pick a random number and multiply it by a large prime number, then post it here! then after we've all posted our random number times a prime number, we reveal our prime numbers. it's us three, right? so the numbers summed modulus three: if it's zero i start, (then you then xpovos). if it's one you start, (then xpovos then me). if it's two xpovos starts, (then me, then you). ~a
[2019-04-25 10:59:53] - "Joseph Galdo, a former Defense Department technology intelligence analyst who ran for Congress as a Green Party candidate in 2014" Uh... what? If this guy can run than why can't I run as a Libertarian?
-Paul[2019-04-25 10:59:28] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/republican-enters-crowded-fairfax-county-election-for-board-chairman/2019/04/24/1ccfb4fa-66e0-11e9-a1b6-b "Whoever wins a crowded Democratic primary to become the nominee for chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors will now have a Republican opponent to contend with in November."... -Paul
[2019-04-25 10:42:52] - a: I think he's basically saying it will take him a long time to make his picks, so the draft might stretch over the weekend. I'm fine with that, although obviously we should try to wrap it up as soon as possible after starting. Do we have a way to determine draft order? -Paul
[2019-04-25 10:41:46] - paul: whenever you want. i'm ranking now. ~a
[2019-04-25 10:41:39] - what's a cooldown? ~a
[2019-04-25 10:19:39] - Paul: I'm in meetings all week. So I may need a longer "cooldown" on my picks if we're doing it today. Or tomorrow. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-25 09:59:03] - a: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fifth_Sacred_Thing Apparently this counts. -Paul
[2019-04-25 09:41:24] - a: Waterworld? I mean there are smokers but most people have figured out a reasonable life. -Daniel
[2019-04-25 09:36:04] - We drafting today? On the message board or over email? -Paul
[2019-04-25 09:31:20] - a: Planet of the apes, under the same thinking?
-Paul[2019-04-24 11:08:56] - the closest i can think of is a.i. artificial intelligence. life is shitty for the AIs, but life seems pretty good for the humans. ~a
[2019-04-24 11:05:27] - well i'm trying to imagine a movie where everybody has figured out how to live happily in a world that was (not immediately) after a huge mass-destruction event. i imagine it would happen in real life, so it shouldn't be too hard to make a movie start like that. ~a
[2019-04-24 11:02:17] - a: Also, it's kinda hard to have a happy beginning that involves past mass destruction and death.
-Paul[2019-04-24 10:59:37] - a: I think just having a movie start happy in general is rare. Stories need conflict, so even if a movie starts happy there's almost certainly going to be unhappiness around the corner, no? -Paul
[2019-04-24 10:52:22] - paul: ah, good point. i guess dystopian and post-apocalyptic often go together, but not always. to extend that thought: i wonder if there are any movies that are post-apocalyptic but *not* dystopian? often these kinds of movies end on a happy note: but rarely do they start there? ~a
[2019-04-24 10:39:10] - a: Oddly enough, Bioshock Infinite largely isn't post-apocalyptic as much as it's dystopian... at least as much as a cool flying city can be dystopian.
-Paul[2019-04-24 10:36:05] - paul: gotcha. yeah it does sound a lot like t3. i'd still watch it anyways. post-apocalyptic themes are usually pretty amazing in movies and games. ~a
[2019-04-24 10:29:39] - Huh, I just realized Bioshock Infinite would make a really cool movie. It's a shame video game movies almost always suck. -Paul
[2019-04-24 10:27:08] - a: At a high level (that doesn't really spoil the game too much), it's the belief that some things in history are inevitable. If you go back in time to kill baby Hitler, then somebody else just as bad will rise up instead. Think of the idea of Judgement Day in the Terminator franchise and how T3 basically said it can be postponed but is inevitable. -Paul
[2019-04-24 10:22:24] - a: That's a hard question to answer. Do you mind if I spoil the game? -Paul
[2019-04-24 10:16:28] - i never played the game. i just liked the quote (though i *did* know what it was from). what's the context? ~a
[2019-04-24 10:11:36] - Odd to see a Bioshock Infinite quote up there. I thought I was the only person who really liked that game. -Paul
[2019-04-23 14:51:16] - Paul: I suspect there's not a market for it. Not only are you leaving money on the table from a pure capitalism standpoint, those libertarian philosophical points aren't the core LP tenants that would motivate people to be activist investors like that. And if they were, there's still the threshold problem. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-23 13:19:19] - Xpovos: I have an idea and you might be the person here who has the best chance of fully grokking it. Do you know about ESG investing? I wonder if there is a market for something similar, but instead from a libertarian perspective. In other words, investing in companies that (relatively speaking) avoid crony capitalism and avoid lobbying the government for special tax breaks or regulations. -Paul
[2019-04-23 12:25:11] - a: Sent. -Paul
[2019-04-23 12:19:54] - a: I don't have one yet, but I can email one to you. Give me a few minutes. -Paul
[2019-04-23 12:07:26] - i feel like "what is the player roster" seems like a normal thing to have. ~a
[2019-04-23 12:06:01] - give it to me? is that a normal thing to ask for? i've never done this before. ~a
[2019-04-23 12:05:32] - 30 is pretty deep. where's your (unordered) list? ~a
[2019-04-23 12:03:58] - a: Do you have a list that goes potentially goes 30 deep? -Paul
[2019-04-23 12:03:05] - 10 sounds good. I like round numbers. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-23 11:51:24] - Xpovos: Yup. I figure with around 20 declared Democratic candidates, we could at least draft 6-7 a person if there's 3 of us, but I would be happy going to 10 if you two were interested. -Paul
[2019-04-23 11:49:00] - Paul: There's potential for deep bench strategy for non-contenders based on the points scale for cabinet members, in particular. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-23 11:46:03] - Daniel: I mean, I don't think their debt is an existential problem since they make a ton of money and should be able to eventually pay it all off, but it does seem like a huge debt load for a company that doesn't seem like it should have it (considering the aforementioned cash flow and that they pay a dividend). -Paul
[2019-04-23 11:44:43] - Xpovos: There probably should be, otherwise we would each get like a few billion people. I'm good for a deep bench, but figured Adrian wouldn't want to start getting into the various contenders for libertarian/green party nominations and stuff like that.
-Paul[2019-04-23 11:40:39] - Daniel: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/T/balance-sheet/ That's how I read it, but I'm not sure how they got to that number. AT&T doesn't seem to have $120b in cash or short term investments sitting around, so I'm not sure what goes into that calculation. -Paul
[2019-04-23 11:38:02] - Paul: OK, so there's not going to be a set list of people we can draft. Is there a bench limit? -- Xpovos
[2019-04-23 11:35:15] - Paul: (or someone) does that first sentence in the att article where it uses the phrase "net of cash" just mean that if they used all available liquid cash they would still have 40 billion of debt left? Just want to make sure I"m reading that right. -Daniel
[2019-04-23 11:26:52] - a: The for sale part might kill me. Waymo probably has the car now, and maybe could even sell it for fairly cheap, but I don't know if they would. -Paul
[2019-04-23 11:26:03] - a: I do still own TWTR, and posted about it this morning! rdpvtm? Acronym for both sites? Freedom Portfolio is up 1.23% today. Oddly enough, a lot of my lesser conviction companies are leading the way, like Twitter. Helping my comeback in Q3! -Paul
[2019-04-23 10:55:36] - paul: i.o.w. 2015-definition-level-4 basically is a steering-wheel-less car (or effectively one), meaning it can park itself and (be able to) drive (and charge?) without a passenger. in-other-other-words, you'll basically have to hope that a 2015-definition-level-3-car will be for sale in virginia for less than 20k to win. ~a
[2019-04-23 10:53:10] - paul: i've all but given up on our bet. still, i'm holding out hope that they won't be for sale, or that our 2015-definition of "level 4" (i.e. before the definitions all changed) is pretty onerous. ~a
[2019-04-23 10:51:54] - paul: do you still own twtr? i see it on rdpvtm. damn, man. ~a
[2019-04-23 10:50:26] - a: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/22/elon-musk-says-tesla-robotaxis-will-hit-the-market-next-year.html Sounds like I'm going to win our bet.
-Paul[2019-04-23 09:35:56] - https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/at-t-priority-pay-171-billion-debt-1194193 Kinda weird how people are so concerned about Netflix's $20 billion in debt when AT&T has $171 billion in debt. I know AT&T has a lot of cash and good cash flows, but that's still a ton of debt. -Paul
[2019-04-23 09:33:38] - https://seekingalpha.com/news/3452743-just-bitcoin-hits-new-2019-high Don't look now... -Paul
[2019-04-23 09:32:25] - Xpovos: I figure the sooner, the better. Unlike with fantasy football drafts, I think earlier is better. You mean candidates entering late? I was thinking we don't allow it. Think Mark Cuban might throw his hat in the ring? You need to draft him or not get a shot. I suppose we could work some type of free agency in if people wanted... -Paul
[2019-04-23 09:13:17] - Paul: So what's the timeline on trying to get this draft thing done? Also what will we do about late entrants? -- Xpovos
[2019-04-22 16:02:56] - a: So, it sounds like you're ready for the draft? Picking Bamala Barris and Beth Barren? -Paul
[2019-04-22 11:27:42] - i'll take that as a compliment. don't tell me what it's not. ~a
[2019-04-22 11:26:13] - a: Now you sound like my kids... That's not a compliment.
-Paul[2019-04-22 11:25:03] - paul: you mean bamala barris? . . . you said "can be referenced by names" not "goes by".
~a[2019-04-22 10:57:12] - a: Ah, hadn't realized she had overtaken Kamala Harris. I don't think she really goes by "Beth" at all, or at least I haven't seen her use that name anywhere. Beto and Bernie, though, I would argue are used more than O'Rourke and Sanders when people talk about them. -Paul
[2019-04-22 10:41:40] - paul: beth? not sure which poll you're looking at (i picked the most recent at Nationwide opinion polling for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries#National polling). i think beth is 5th, and she can also be referenced by a name that starts with a 'b'? ~a
[2019-04-22 09:50:51] - I just realized that something like 4 out of the top 5 Democratic presidential candidates in terms of polling so far can be referenced by names that start with a 'B': Biden, Bernie, Beto, Buttigieg. -Paul
[2019-04-19 16:09:55] - I dunno, I just got excited to see so many references to relatively niche things that I like that I wanted to understand and everything went over my head.
-Paul[2019-04-19 16:09:30] - Like, it feels like a bunch of random observations or reciting of facts and I don't see any kind of connective tissue tying things together or trying to make some larger point. The headline makes it sound like it's supposed to say something about conservatives ruining debate, but I see so little evidence of that in this piece other than a vague allusion to some people being annoying. -Paul
[2019-04-19 16:06:04] - And other things that I know a little of, like Quilette and Ben Shapiro and whatnot, but I honestly for the life of me can't figure out what it is saying. I think it's just trying lump all libertarians and conservatives together and... talk smack about them? But I can't quite tell. I'm being serious. This isn't some sort of gotcha question. -Paul
[2019-04-19 16:04:39] - https://www.theringer.com/2019/4/19/18485861/wrongthink-ben-shapiro-quillette-joe-rogan-intellectual-dark-web Can anybody translate this for me? The article starts by talking about an episode of the Fifth Column podcast (one of my favorite podcasts!) and includes references to Reason magazine... -Paul
[2019-04-19 13:36:46] - paul: i've been to that metro and was thinking to myself that it was a shit-show for pedestrians. no, this trail is news to me. google biking and cyclemap.us both don't have it. one of those two is editable though. ~a
[2019-04-19 13:22:37] - a: https://www.insidenova.com/news/fairfax/fairfax-dedicates-new-trail-between-vienna-tysons/article_b3fb761a-6295-11e9-a6c4-6f313ba24db2.html New bicycle trail that I assume you already know about. -Paul
[2019-04-19 12:52:07] - a: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election I don't know if there is a definitive list, but you could look at this. -Paul
[2019-04-19 12:44:11] - paul: "computer glitch" is some fucking spin. fuckin criminal. ~a
[2019-04-19 12:42:44] - well, if you give me the list a few days before i'll look them up. probably my *current* knowledge is much shallower than you think it is. the sooner you get me the list, the more likely i will be to at least know who everybody is
~a[2019-04-19 12:37:40] - https://nypost.com/2019/04/19/notre-dame-rector-says-computer-glitch-likely-started-cathedral-fire/ Not sure an "electrical short circuit" counts as a "computer glitch".... -Paul
[2019-04-19 12:35:47] - a: Okay, I think a snake draft is the most reasonable, and it's pretty straight forward. Assume 3 players (A, B, C), then the pick order would go: A, B, C, C, B, A, A, B, C, C, B, A... and so forth. Basically you reverse order every round. All we need to do is determine order (A, B, C) and how many people to pick. How many candidates deep do you think your knowledge goes? -Paul
[2019-04-19 12:29:33] - paul: i've never done a draft (never ever ever. of any kind. unless the stock market challenge counts). so you have to decide all of the details: i'm out of my element. ~a
[2019-04-19 12:03:26] - a: Okay. You, me, and (if he shows up before we start) Xpovos? There's something like 20 serious-ish candidates. Teams of 10 if it's two of us and 7 if there's 3? Or is that too many? How should we determine draft order? -Paul
[2019-04-19 11:12:49] - no i'm not sure if anybody voiced interest besides me and you. ~a
[2019-04-19 11:12:25] -
i don't think i'll participate in a podcast since i plan on not preparing for this past reading about their platforms. ~a[2019-04-19 11:08:08] - I wonder if recording the draft for a podcast would be at all interesting. I would find it interesting, but maybe based on the response to who wants to play.... I am the only one.
-Paul[2019-04-19 10:46:24] - a: Do you remember if anybody Wednesday night expressed interest outside of us? It might just be you and me and a reluctant Xpovos... -Paul
[2019-04-19 10:44:32] - sure. ~a
[2019-04-19 10:36:36] - a: Are we sure it will be evident which is which? I guess we could give 1 point for being invited to (any?) high profile debate and 0.5 points for being invited to (any?) low profile debate? -Paul
[2019-04-19 10:27:28] - getting invited to the "main" (high-profile) and "non-main" (lower-profile) debate should be a thing, sure. ~a
[2019-04-19 09:57:19] - a: Since there's no stock market challenge to watch, should we do the presidential candidate draft? Do we need any scoring for independent candidates or getting invited to a debate or something? -Paul
[2019-04-19 09:53:44] - a: Hah, yeah, I actually knew that (was looking at earnings reports this week and saw it was closed for Good Friday) but forgot this morning and was wondering what was going on. Market isn't the state. -Paul
[2019-04-19 09:44:13] - oh is the stock market closed today? wtf happened to the separation of church and state? ~a
[2019-04-18 18:08:57] - fired ~a
[2019-04-18 16:09:03] - Xpovos: Yeah.. I guess that was my point. Since there's no lineups to set or free agency or anything, it seems like pretty low effort, but at the same time if you're not interested that's fine.
-Paul[2019-04-18 16:07:10] - I'd draft, but I doubt I'd pay much attention beyond that. Since it seems like a draft-only league kind of concept, that's probably fine. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-18 15:50:55] - Xpovos: So... you're interested in seeing what Adrian and I do?
-Paul[2019-04-18 15:48:32] - I'm potentially interested in the Presidential Primary Draft thing. But I'm not sure I'd actually participate. -- Xpovos
[2019-04-18 14:19:34] - Daniel: You can always join us later. We typically play for like two hours. -Paul
[2019-04-18 14:08:54] - kid* bedtime.
[2019-04-18 14:08:46] - 8 cst is bedtime. We'll see though. -Daniel
[2019-04-18 14:04:49] - Daniel: Thanks for the heads up. Adrian and I are playing SC2 tonight at 9pm if you're interested.
-Paul[2019-04-18 14:00:07] - Paul: I would pass on the president draft. -Daniel
[2019-04-18 13:53:25] - a: on the case of obstruction, the report feels very Comey-like (I’m not pressing charges but I think your actions are bad). I think we can finally put to bed the idea of a grand Russian conspiracy though. - mig
[2019-04-18 13:48:10] - paul: if there are redactions because of a controversial reason (personal privacy of an official), i would argue that the full report wasn't released. their tags for reasons of redactions are fucking ridiculous: "harm to an ongoing matter". *which* ongoing matter?! "personal privacy" . . . please tell me that the personal privacy of white house officials aren't included in that. ~a
[2019-04-18 13:46:28] - paul: well, this is definitely a grey-area. i declare no winner. if it's redacted because of a non-controversial reason, (personal privacy of a non-official) i think that would still count as the full report. i did technically say "sans-redactions", but on hindsight, that was a dumb thing to say. ~a
[2019-04-18 13:14:34] - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/zoom-ipo-stock-begins-trading-on-nasdaq.html IPO market is a little crazy right now. -Paul
[2019-04-18 13:11:47] - a: Redacted, so I'm technically still right about the full report being released, right?
-Paul[2019-04-18 13:04:14] - "the president's efforts to influence the investigation were mostly unsuccessful, but that is largely because the persons who surrounded the president declined to carry out orders or accede to his requests" - the mueller report was released today! it's *heavily* redacted. i wonder if there's an easy way of knowing which redactions were made by whom. for instance, some of these euge redactions might be non-controversial? ~a
[2019-04-18 13:02:05] - sure. or email them? ~a
[2019-04-18 13:00:46] - a: I wonder if we should give Daniel or Xpovos another day or two to check the message board? -Paul
[2019-04-18 12:35:19] - paul: yeah! ~a
[2019-04-18 10:13:43] - a: For scoring, how does this sound? 3 points for getting a major party nomination. 2 points for getting a major party VP slot. 1 point for getting a minor party nomination. I realized it probably doesn't matter giving out points for becoming president because, well, there's like a 99% chance the winner of "major party nomination" is the only one with a shot at that anyway. -Paul
[2019-04-18 10:11:21] - a: I can't remember, did anybody last night say they wanted in on the draft? -Paul
[2019-04-17 16:32:01] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Declared_candidates God, this is depressing... -Paul
[2019-04-17 16:29:42] - Although with "only" a couple of dozen "players" to draft, we might need to restrict to a few teams. -Paul
[2019-04-17 16:28:51] - a: Anyway, maybe we can discuss scoring tonight. If anybody else wants in on our game, let me know because things are changing fast and ideally we would do a draft soon. -Paul
[2019-04-17 13:50:08] - But I think part of the fun would be to see if any LP people get picked in a draft (maybe ahead of the like 10th ranked Democrat or something). -Paul
[2019-04-17 13:49:23] - Oh... and I guess points for nomination? Or maybe the nomination is 5 and we don't count president (unless we're allowing Trump to be picked). -Paul
[2019-04-17 13:48:42] - Maybe 5 points for getting president, 3 for VP and 1 for each cabinet spot? -Paul
[2019-04-17 13:23:54] - a: I was half kidding about the book deal or contributor thing. Might be hard to track. VP is a good one, though, and cabinet positions can be doable too. Honestly, though, what would the scoring be? Feels like getting the President right should be the majority of points... -Paul
[2019-04-17 13:15:42] - love it. ~a
[2019-04-17 13:07:23] - a: I suppose we could do something like points for winning their party's nomination, points for being picked VP... and maybe points for a cabinet spot? Maybe points for getting a book deal or contract as a CNN contributor?
-Paul[2019-04-17 12:51:41] - paul: there needs to be something like an RBI or an assist or something. ~a
[2019-04-17 12:51:14] - will there be points for VP? ~a
[2019-04-17 12:50:58] - paul: i'll do a fantasy 2020 draft, sure! ~a
[2019-04-17 09:21:32] - https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=JMIA&qsearchterm=jmia I had bought on IPO day at $23 in a true "impulse buy" moment. Came to my senses over the weekend and was thrilled to sell for a gain on Monday (since I feared a Lyft-like post-IPO drop). Result was bad. Still believe in the process. -Paul
[2019-04-17 09:16:52] - Anybody here interested in a "fantasy 2020 race" draft? Basically depending on the number of players, we go through a few rounds (snake draft style) picking any candidates for president and whoever has the person who wins in 2020 wins! I figure eligible candidates would be anybody except the incumbent, but we could include Trump too if I get the first pick.
-Paul[2019-04-16 17:28:32] - a: Congrats on taking the lead in Q3. I don't think I'm out of it yet, but I'm going to need some of my laggards to pick up the pace. -Paul
[2019-04-16 17:26:26] - a: Yeah, strange that QCOM had such a positive reaction and AAPL didn't move much. -Paul
[2019-04-16 16:14:40] - which . . . is nice because i have apple on the same fucking challenge. ~a
[2019-04-16 16:13:52] - paul: looks like qcom won a settlement with apple. what's (kinda) weird is that apple's stock didn't go down. ~a
[2019-04-16 11:09:24] - paul: i could use vtiax as my benchmark, but including dividends requires manual work. which is why i like sp500tr so much, the dividends are included. (maybe i'll just bite the bullet and do the manual work). ~a
[2019-04-16 11:00:12] - a: I know it's not perfect, because I've got VTSAX instead of an S&P index fund and there are some tiny fees, but I also haven't worried much about it. I know international stocks have underperformed for awhile, but my hope was always that it won't underperform for the entire time I am saving for retirement.
-Paul[2019-04-16 10:59:07] - a: So, I would estimate maybe half of my Vanguard funds are in VTIAX or.... VEMAX? Whatever the emerging markets fund is. (And yes, I know that's aggressive). So when I compare my Vanguard funds performance to the S&P and if there is a difference, I usually chalk most of it up to how differently those two funds performed. -Paul
[2019-04-16 10:57:53] - a: I don't know of any obvious index for international stocks that could be used. My first instinct would be to use something like VTIAX as a benchmark for me to measure my international stocks to, but I guess VTIAX is your international exposure? I don't get so granular that I am trying to compare returns of parts of my investments to similar parts. -Paul
[2019-04-16 10:49:11] - paul: that is fair. s&p500-total-return was just the first (only) index i could get numbers for that had dividends included. basically, i don't want the "best" benchmark. i want *any* benchmark.
~a[2019-04-16 10:31:48] - a: So the question is basically what makes for a good benchmark to measure against for different asset types? That's a pretty weighty question. I'm not even convinced that the S&P 500 is the best benchmark to use for US stocks since it is mostly large cap companies. -Paul
[2019-04-16 10:25:05] - (my own investigation started with what is vtiax's benchmark? this lead nowhere because i couldn't find a historical-read-out of the state of that index including dividends. am i just dumb?) ~a
[2019-04-16 10:23:12] - so, i want to measure the "us stock" sections of my portfolio against the s&p500-total-return, i want to measure the international sections of my portfolio against total international returns (i.e. including dividends), and i want to measure the bond sections of my portfolio against bond total returns. the issue i have with all of this is that there is no s&p500-total-return index for international or bonds (or is there?). any thoughts? ~a
[2019-04-16 10:23:11] - paul/daniel: so this is kinda parallel to a conversation we had about "beating the market". but i want to create my own "definition of greatness". the extra problem i want to add to my "definition of greatness" is some way to equalize "risk". ~a
[2019-04-15 17:00:39] - a: That's kinda trippy. I don't know if I want to watch more than once.... especially knowing it ends before they line back up. Feel strangely unfulfilled... -Paul
[2019-04-15 16:44:14] - i could watch this all day. the part that enrages me is they got like 75% of the way to them being completely-lined-up again and then stopped the video! ~a
[2019-04-15 16:37:50] - a: Ah, no, that's my bad, a perfectly reasonable assumption. I was just curious how index funds in general handle dividends and if there were tax consequences to index funds if held outside of tax advantaged accounts. I guess the answer is yes. Thanks for the heads up on other important things (even if they happened to not be relevant in this case). -Paul
[2019-04-15 16:34:50] - paul: "Doesn't that not matter if your funds are all in tax advantaged retirement accounts?" oh sorry you had mentioned taxes on the dividends, so i thought we were talking about taxable accounts. to be clear you do *not* pay taxes on dividends inside of an ira/401k. "it doesn't have to be set until you sell something, right" probably not, but you'll probably forget if you don't do it. again, it only matters for taxable. ~a
[2019-04-15 16:30:12] - a: And as far as I understand, it doesn't have to be set until you sell something, right? -Paul
[2019-04-15 16:29:56] - a: Cost basis method was "undefined" or something similar for all. Doesn't that not matter if your funds are all in tax advantaged retirement accounts? -Paul
[2019-04-15 16:23:02] - that one is harder to "change" later on (maybe). ~a
[2019-04-15 16:22:44] - paul: specID? ~a
[2019-04-15 16:17:13] - a: Re: Vanguard. Thanks. I just checked that for the 5 funds I own and it is set to "Reinvest" for Capital Gains and Dividends, so it sounds like I am in good shape. -Paul
[2019-04-15 16:13:41] - a: With flying water tankers! I kinda feel like sometimes, when it comes to serious events like this.... maybe the media should ignore the stupid things Trump tweets out.
-Paul[2019-04-15 15:24:08] - mig: well, since you brought it up, i checked trump's twitter. you can probably guess his response. he suggests that france act quickly. putting out a fire. ~a
[2019-04-15 15:16:58] - paul: the only thing I’m interested in is how can I blame this on Trump. - mig
[2019-04-15 15:12:55] - paul: i have no idea what the default is, but it could be they force you to decide. regardless, here's where it's set: image (also check out the one right below it. i've discussed specID here a bunch) ~a
[2019-04-15 14:45:30] - https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/notre-dame-fire/index.html Since this seems like a big deal and nobody has mentioned it yet: Notre Dame Cathedral in France is on fire and the spire has collapsed. -Paul
[2019-04-15 13:31:59] - a: Basically, DRIP is turned on by default? -Paul
[2019-04-15 13:31:50] - a: I think you answered it. The dividends that my VTSAX shares earn automatically go back into the fund to buy more shares of the companies in the index. In other words, I don't have random cash sitting around in Vanguard because of the dividends that I need to make a decision on, right? Vanguard does it automatically for me? -Paul
[2019-04-15 13:25:20] - paul: my guess is that laws define how this is done. if vtsax just held onto our dividends and re-invested them, they would probably be required to pay the taxes on the dividends. (otherwise, that would be a pretty sweet tax-dodge). ~a
[2019-04-15 13:23:42] - paul: "do the dividends get automatically reinvested in the fund?" maybe i misunderstood the question. dividends get returned like normal in a mutual fund except that they are pooled by time: for vtsax, the dividends are done quarterly *and* yearly (think 3-small quarterly dividends, and the year-end quarter is usually much larger). ~a
[2019-04-15 13:21:44] - paul: "I guess I would still get taxed on those dividends?" yes, you would. you get taxed whether you re-invest or not (this might be a new law, i remember in the 90s my grandfather suggested otherwise. but, as of now, that's affirmative). you should reinvest anyways: the benefits to reinvesting are huge. ~a
[2019-04-15 12:29:47] - a: Yeah, I guess I figure that <> is more intuitive in that even if you didn't know what it means, you might be able to figure it out because each symbol individually means something and if you take them together, there's really only one thing it can mean? Maybe? If I didn't know better, != almost seems like some kind of super equals.
-Paul[2019-04-15 12:24:01] - paul: that's correct. math uses ≠for normal inequality (there are many kinds of inequality in math of course . . . ). ~a
[2019-04-15 11:29:51] - a: Ha! Believe it or not, I briefly paused after writing that and thought about replacing it with !=, but for some reason I just thought <> would be more accessible? I'm embarrassed to ask, but how does math (not CS) do inequalities? I guess it's the equals with a slash through it? That's too hard. -Paul
[2019-04-15 11:07:49] - paul: "<>" you're such an sql guy! i think sql and basic use that for inequality (and pascal?). many sql systems also allow the normal inequality operator too, though. is it because you're trying to be standards-compliant? ~a
[2019-04-15 11:02:28] - and "do Asians count as minorities that we should be helping with things like affirmative action or do they count as white people who shouldn't be?". Racism seems silly and wrong to me BECAUSE it's all about defining people by their group instead of seeing them as individuals. This type of "racism" seems to be the opposite where it's embracing looking at people just as members of their group instead of as individuals. -Paul
[2019-04-15 11:00:48] - aaron: Okay, right, I get what you're saying now. And that's the "other" definition of racism that I was referring to earlier which is dependent on some seemingly arbitrary ranking of "privilege" to determine if something is racist or not. That's how we end up with weird calculations like, "Is it okay like Mayor Pete because he's gay or does he just count as another white male?"... -Paul
[2019-04-15 10:39:48] - if a transgender woman tweeted about the disgusting state cis women leave public restrooms, or if a parapalegic guy tweeted about how frustrating it was that all the scooters at wal-mart were taken by obese people -- people would furrow their brows and tentatively nod. if you swap the roles, it's unacceptable because of the unspoken hierarchy of who has it tougher in life - aaron
[2019-04-15 10:37:00] - there's sort of a hierarchy of skinny -> obese -> parapalegic, or white -> asian -> black, or cis man -> cis woman -> gay/lesbian -> trans man/woman -- and in general it's more OK to "punch up" and less OK to "punch down" - aaron
[2019-04-15 10:29:51] - but yeah i think you often come back to the point of "why do black people protest the movie Soul Man and white people don't protest the movie White Chicks" or a million similar examples and the answer is there's cultural and historical nuance in being able to insult a privileged class for their race. the same reason your grandmother can tell you you need meat on your bones, but you can't retort that she needs to lose her double-chin - aaron
[2019-04-15 10:29:30] - Daniel: I think I know the answer to this question, but wanted to make sure: For Vanguard funds like VTSAX, do the dividends get automatically reinvested in the fund? If I held VTSAX outside of a retirement fund, I guess I would still get taxed on those dividends? -Paul
[2019-04-15 10:27:29] - aaron: "some forms of cultural appropriation are more offensive than others" Is this in reference to how the offensiveness can vary depending on the races involved? Or the degree of appropriation or the thing being appropriated or something else? -Paul
[2019-04-15 10:26:43] - aaron: I don't think I understand? A white person can't be Asian either (unless we're counting Asians as white, but I think the intention of the tweet was to indicate that white <> Asian). -Paul
[2019-04-15 10:22:49] - paul: some forms of cultural appropriation are more offensive than others, but within the context that i guess a black person can't be irish (?) and the tweet calling into question the irishness of the restaurant, maybe that tweet could make sense and be inoffensive. maybe something like 'jamaican wellness blogger' would make the tweet more clear although i understand wanting to preserve the race-centric nature of the original tweet - aaron
[2019-04-15 10:10:31] - paul: "To avoid call blocking tech?" not necessarily. for many reasons. main, general, reason (imo) is to get you to answer. "Wait, so does that mean if they spoof my parents number and I 'block' it I would be blocking my parents from calling me?" yes. this does happen, but *much* more often what happens is that you get angry at a spammer. so you call them back, and the poor sap on that number didn't call you because spoofing. ~a
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