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[2019-12-19 13:11:08] - Paul: It makes even less sense when you think about how the House has treated this as an URGENT process to rush to a vote now. - mig
[2019-12-19 12:35:03] - mig: Right, so I guess I don't understand how delaying helps. -Paul
[2019-12-19 12:34:52] - a: Are we seeing you tomorrow night? -Paul
[2019-12-19 11:54:58] - Paul: I think that’s the hope, but from what I’m reading it sounds like Murkowski is the only potential realistic flip right now, but she’s cancelled out by Manchin flipping on the Dem side. - mig
[2019-12-19 11:43:59] - But... aren't the battle lines pretty much already drawn? Or is there actual hope they can flip some Republican senators? -Paul
[2019-12-19 11:42:53] - sorry the "nah" was to paul. i agree with what mig said. ~a
[2019-12-19 11:40:00] - nah, they'll send them. they probably want to wait until after christmas. ~a
[2019-12-19 11:39:35] - paul: I believe its to give Schumer some time to try and lobby for more favorable terms for Democrats in the process for the senate trail. I think? - mig
[2019-12-19 10:45:54] - Can somebody explain why the Democrats would want to not send the articles of impeachment to the Senate? Is it so that during the presidential election it can be claimed that Trump has been impeached and not yet acquitted by the Senate? -Paul
[2019-12-19 09:13:17] - a: I went ahead and bought some bitcoin in my Cash App ($1-2 trading fee) so I should be ready to pay my debt (is this reverse jinx working?) -Paul
[2019-12-18 11:21:16] - though i like the idea of winning, it is a little early yet. i mean, 6% can easily be undone in two weeks. i'll just have to cross my fingers or something. ~a
[2019-12-18 11:20:06] - ah ok. yes, that's acceptable of course. ~a
[2019-12-18 11:19:45] - a: I don't think you would need to do anything, I think I can buy some btc through the Cash App and then can send it to your address. -Paul
[2019-12-18 11:15:06] - i accept venmo, btc, paypal, cash, and check. i have no idea what the square cash app is: how do i get btc or usd from that? ~a
[2019-12-18 10:46:26] - a: I just realized I don't think I have any btc in my hot wallet you pay you for your inevitable win for 2019. Do you think I could use the Square Cash app to pay you? -Paul
[2019-12-18 09:52:33] - Daniel: Huh? -Paul
[2019-12-17 21:40:06] - paul: Lucas? -Daniel
[2019-12-17 13:59:27] - a: Yeah, I was worried ACB was going to be another GBTC for you where you rode the hyped sector (MJ vs BTC) for a stock market challenge win.
-Paul[2019-12-17 13:57:26] - paul: jfc, acb has been *quite* the ride. bought at 2, over a year or so, it went to 8 (+300% increase). now it's back at 2! thank god i bought so little, or i might be upset. ~a
[2019-12-17 13:35:07] - yeah i did too. i think about it often (which doesn't happen for other people when i get jerk replies after a game) and i immediately screen-grabbed it. ~a
[2019-12-17 12:28:44] - a: I kinda liked cheetos fingers noobs (or whatever it was). It's my new battle cry. -Paul
[2019-12-17 12:10:00] - blizzard added a patch that turns "gg, ez" into "i'm wrestling with some insecurity issues in my life but thank you all for playing with me." reminds me of "chetos fingers noobs" sic (except that i think chetos fingers noobs was actually very original, even if it was still a jerk move). ~a
[2019-12-17 10:37:46] - no idea. i'd probably google it. it's probably super complicated. unless you're willing to ignore state taxes, but even then it's probably complicated. "are tax credits taxable?" . . . and other things i wish we didn't have to think about. ~a
[2019-12-17 09:57:18] - I think, from the research that I've done, that it doesn't lower taxable income and doesn't change based on tax bracket... it just lowers how much you owe. In that case, it basically doesn't matter if you do it in a high income year or low income year, right? -Paul
[2019-12-17 09:36:51] - Does anybody here know exactly how the federal solar energy tax credit works? I know it's 30% of the cost of the system in 2019, but does it reduce your taxable income for the year or work in some other fashion? Basically, I'm wondering if it varies depending on what tax bracket you are in or not. -Paul
[2019-12-17 09:31:52] - Daniel: Congrats on the win. My confidence is shaken a bit knowing that I escaped Dave only because he benched Drake, but those are the kinds of lucky breaks you need to win in Fantasy Football sometimes. Past two champions facing off! -Paul
[2019-12-17 09:21:25] - Daniel: Awesome, thanks! I hope they enjoy it. I tried to make it a fun story first and foremost so even if they don't care at all about financial literacy they might still enjoy it. Have you read it yet? -Paul
[2019-12-16 23:28:27] - Paul: May the best team (which is obviously me) win! Grats on Dave starting Mack over Drake. I wonder how close a call that was for him. -Daniel
[2019-12-16 18:27:36] - Daniel: Are you also putting money in the book? Ala a money card? If so they'll likely be excited. Not to knock Paul's work, of course. But that might juice the incentive, while also giving them an object lesson on the saving principles. -- Xpovos
[2019-12-16 16:53:05] - Paul: I bought some copies of your book! Going to give them to some kids as presents
I wonder how excited (or not) they will be about a money book. -Daniel[2019-12-16 15:51:14] - Daniel: Eh, we've been trading the lead in points scored all season, so I think your team is just as good as mine. You just had some tough luck early on with your schedule. You've got some killer RBs. My team also has a brutal schedule next week, which is unfortunate. -Paul
[2019-12-16 15:29:26] - Paul: If barkley has a quiet game I imagine that would pretty much toast me. -Daniel
[2019-12-16 15:29:01] - Paul: I'm pretty stoked to make the finals. I had a rough 2nd half of the season. If I am able to pull it off I'll be excited. My trade for Mixon took like 5 extra weeks to pay off but hopefully helps to get me over the top. You've certainly been the most consistent on the season so I'll have to come out swinging. -Daniel
[2019-12-16 15:10:08] - Daniel: At least the Ravens didn't clinch so there's still something to play for. -Paul
[2019-12-16 15:09:09] - Paul: I guess Dave just so you don't repeat so I still have that recent claim to myself? But I don't think either of you will be easier next week. Maybe I'd rather not play Lamar? But its always hard to know. -Daniel
[2019-12-16 15:01:26] - Daniel: Who are you rooting for? -Paul
[2019-12-16 15:00:50] - Daniel: Nervous, but still somewhat confident, if that's a thing. 55 points is a lot to make up, but he does have the horses to do it. -Paul
[2019-12-16 14:59:22] - Paul: How do you feel about your keeper league game going into tonight? Seems like you should be good but Dave could theoretically pull the upset. -Daniel
[2019-12-16 13:27:11] - if ~100% of your users are doing some stupid manipulation to your output, maybe it's a problem with your api? ~a
[2019-12-16 13:26:36] - paul: maybe not. i like to think, though, that an api creator cares about the user of their api and how easy their api is to use. ~a
[2019-12-16 13:25:39] - a: They likely don't see it as a problem -Paul
[2019-12-16 13:11:23] - paul: yeah, that you need the index thing is dumb. every once and a while i look at the docs for that function (googlefinance) and check that they haven't fixed that problem. yeah . . . they still haven't. ~a
[2019-12-16 13:08:51] - a: Ah, got it. Thanks! -Paul
[2019-12-16 13:01:03] - yes. you have to use "index(...,2,2)". there is an example of that on the spreadsheet. look at the "2019" sheet and look at cell f2. ~a
[2019-12-16 11:33:59] - a: Btw, do you know if there is a way to return the price of a ticker on a specific day (open or close, doesn't really matter) to a specific cell using the google finance api? I keep getting a full table returned. -Paul
[2019-12-16 11:32:52] - a: Looks like AMD is going to propel you across the finish line. -Paul
[2019-12-13 15:10:27] - dividends on the s&p500: 2% for the past 10 years. 4% for the past 100 years. "That's the difference between the Freedom Portfolio beating the market and losing to it" yeah (in addition to dividends), accounting for international vs us, and accounting for stocks vs bonds can also change things from "winning" to "losing". it's why accounting is so fucking dumb: you can make just about anything true pretty easily. ~a
[2019-12-13 14:12:31] - a: Does the S&P500 average something like 4% a year in dividends? I'm looking at the S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Total Return since October 2018 and it's like 11% to 7%. That's the difference between the Freedom Portfolio beating the market and losing to it.
-Paul[2019-12-13 11:59:06] - yeah, i was surprised about that as well. i think most of it was yesterday: amd was up 8%. nvda was up 4%. meli down 1%. tdoc was down. etc etc. ~a
[2019-12-13 11:20:35] - a: And you finally passed me in 2019 a few days ago. How did you open up a 3% lead, though!? I was just back like 1% yesterday and should be gaining ground on you today. -Paul
[2019-12-12 16:08:33] - paul: you finally passed me for 2017. biggest change since the end of 2017 was gbtc. after that was shop. then meli. ~a
[2019-12-12 13:25:55] - a: https://www.businessinsider.com/greta-thunberg-donald-trump-twitter-bio-person-of-the-year-2019-12 Ah, yes, here it is, in the latter part of this article. -Paul
[2019-12-12 13:24:58] - a: I believe she did something similar before when Trump attacked her, but I could be wrong. -Paul
[2019-12-12 12:41:01] - child successfully trolling the president. what a class act. ~a
[2019-12-12 10:04:58] - a:
At least you let me know. I'm actually busy as well, my work holiday party is tonight. -Paul[2019-12-12 10:00:32] - paul: while we're talking about rejection . . . i already mentioned it last wednesday, but i thought i'd remind you that i'm busy today, so no sc2 for me. ~a
[2019-12-12 09:39:07] - a: There were a few that I was playing a mobile game (Through the Ages) with, and most of the time the game ended, I was the one who started up a new game and invited them. Well, one time I didn't start up a new game to see if they would start one to invite me (my way of figuring out if they actually wanted to play or was just indulging me) and when they didn't... we stopped playing. -Paul
[2019-12-12 09:37:56] - a: Not the best example, but there were a bunch of coworkers at the Fool that I would've loved to continue to keep in touch with and maybe even hang out with, and so after leaving I tried reaching out a few times, but pretty much gave up after a few (maybe even one) "rejection". -Paul
[2019-12-12 09:36:42] - a: But if there was somebody who I was extremely iffy on inviting or was just an acquaintance and I invite once and get turned down.... sometimes I take that as a sign that maybe they're okay not escalating our friendship. -Paul
[2019-12-12 09:35:34] - a: Oh, I didn't sort it at all. It was just the top comment when I clicked on the link. You got it, though. Yeah, I agree with both of those as well. Also, there's a lot of grey area. Friends that I've had for years (or people who I did things with for a long time) I will give a long leash and won't drop until it goes like a year without a response... -Paul
[2019-12-12 09:27:12] - paul: "first comment" you'll have to say how you have it sorted, or something about the first comment. i'm guessing you're talking about this one: "On the other side of this" based on what you said. i also agreed with the one that started with "On a side note" and "LPT for the people who turn down invites". otoh, i think the original advice is good: sometimes life happens, and too easily getting discouraged is a problem too imo. ~a
[2019-12-12 09:20:23] - a: Yeah, the first comment speaks to me more than the initial post. I get that people can be busy, believe me. So if I invite and get a "no" back every time I completely understand and will almost certainly keep inviting. It's the radio silence to every single email that gets me to basically give up. If you can't be bothered to even take a few seconds to let me know, why should I be bothered to keep inviting? -Paul
[2019-12-11 16:43:30] - paul: i know we've talked about something like this before. it's an interesting take, and i agree, sort of, but imo it doesn't scale throughout the years. after years of inviting someone to stuff, and getting a no every time, or worse, getting ignored, it gets old. (some of this is mentioned in the comments) ~a
[2019-12-11 16:16:40] - paul: it's possible. that paper seems . . . long. but, also, isn't complete bullshit. i haven't read enough of it to know for sure if there is merit, but it is interesting. even if there was price manipulation, though, that doesn't necessarily demand that the price run-ups were entirely from price manipulation. ~a
[2019-12-11 15:51:01] - a: https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/45658/a-single-whale-on-bitfinex-likely-manipulated-bitcoins-historic-surge-in-2017-say-academics Here is one, although I saw it on other more mainstream sites too. Seems implausible to me that most of the run-up could be due to a single person. -Paul
[2019-12-11 15:49:32] - can you send me a link? i heard people claiming that at least once per year since 2012. of course it's possible . . . for any market. but i think it's probably hard to prove. ~a
[2019-12-11 15:47:10] - a: Interesting. Have you seen the articles about how the increase in bitcoin price from a few years ago was based primarily on manipulation by a single bitcoin whale? -Paul
[2019-12-11 11:12:30] - the data updates in real-time, and you can see the "depth" moving up and down (but also left and right) based on new bids and asks. understanding whether it means the price will go up or down is meaningless (it's like unrelated), but it does help you understand the literal mechanics of how the prices are decided. ~a
[2019-12-11 11:11:13] - so, i know this is bitcoin, and isn't exactly the supreme example of legitimacy, but check out bitstamp's book: the depth chart is kind of what i'm talking about (and the "order book" to the right of that is the textual representation of the same data). imagine every stock having this info stored somewhere on nyse/nasdaq/etc. ~a
[2019-12-11 11:07:42] - i even looked for book data on nasdaq and nyse. the displays they have for that info is absolutely terrible (also, it costs money to get access to). i'm guessing day traders probably have their own proprietary displays that are easier to look at. ~a
[2019-12-11 10:59:30] - something i noticed from watching a book move, you actually can have a bidding war on zero shares. the book is like . . . a weird thing, and understanding it, will help you understand a lot about what bid vs ask *really* means: you've got thousands of bids and asks at many different prices. what's *weird* is that yahoo finance and google finance won't let you look at an exchange's book. you won't find it on your boa account either. ~a
[2019-12-11 10:56:03] - a: Yeah, but the more I think about it, the more I become aware of how potentially fickle everything in the market is. I logically know the value of stocks are all pretty much perception, but it emotionally gets driven home when I think about it more.
-Paul[2019-12-11 10:49:47] - paul: i think you can also have a bidding war on a huge number of shares, with high volume, then take that money back out of the market. like i mentioned before, the money doesn't have to "stay" in the market for the price to stay high, it can immediately "leave" after the trade. really there are lots of ways for this to happen. ~a
[2019-12-11 10:37:23] - otoh, it can happen though . . . you can have a bidding war on fewer shares (lower volume). ~a
[2019-12-11 10:36:34] - a: Yeah, just hard to reconcile that money can be being pulled out of the stock market while the stock market continues to go up. -Paul
[2019-12-11 10:36:00] - (or if the bidders have less cash to throw around) ~a
[2019-12-11 10:35:49] - it's just less likely there'd be a bidding war if a bunch of bidders leave. ~a
[2019-12-11 10:35:21] - paul: not necessarily. daniel and i could have a bidding war on some shares after you left. ~a
[2019-12-11 10:35:07] - a: I guess not, since you two could be just still mostly buying between the two of you. It's just hard to conceptualize (as you said). -Paul
[2019-12-11 10:34:46] - it could be they're measuring book size. ~a
[2019-12-11 10:34:38] - inflows and outflows aren't something i really understand, sorry. maybe it's like the "considering" thing i was talking about: think about bidders and askers instead of buyers and sellers? money allocated for bidding on shit vs money allocated somewhere else? i'm not sure how you'd measure it. ~a
[2019-12-11 10:34:37] - a: But... let's say we have a market with you, Daniel and I. We're all buying and selling things between ourselves in a closed system, but one day I decide to sell and then pull my money out and not play anymore. Shouldn't that depress prices for you two since there is one less buyer? -Paul
[2019-12-11 10:32:30] - paul: yeah the concept of sellers outnumbering buyers . . . really just means that there are more people that are "considering" selling vs "considering" buying. so the . . . power dynamic is uneven? (buyers market vs sellers market). at the end of the day, the number of bought share and sold shares should be the same
~a[2019-12-11 10:30:44] - a: So outflows means.... Ugh. More selling than buying? HOW DOES THAT WORK!? -Paul
[2019-12-11 10:30:16] - a: Totally agree about markets being hard to wrap your head around. To your point, selling can.... never? really be higher than buying since each transaction requires both a seller and a buyer... right? -Paul
[2019-12-11 10:28:25] - a: Oh, sure, you're right that there's no way of knowing. I suspect it was the article that moved it, but it could easily be what you described. -Paul
[2019-12-11 10:18:46] - paul: it gets even weirder when you start thinking about volume. if volume drops (or even goes to zero, over a short period of time, or at night, or on a small stock, or on a small exchange), then very little money (or literally no money) is being exchanged but is having a *huge* effect on the valuation of *trillions* of dollars in stock. ~a
[2019-12-11 10:16:13] - paul: markets are fundamentally hard to wrap your brain around: for instance, money is never really "held" in the market. they aren't even (usually) held by the public companies involved. you put $1k to buy 1k shares of AAPL: well that $1k just went to a guy. he didn't go and buy something else with it, he put it in his bank account. even if he did though, it just went to another guy who put it in his bank account. ~a
[2019-12-11 10:09:59] - paul: "can pretty clearly move a small cap stock like that". are you sure that's what's happened? how do we know there weren't other reasons the stock was moving? for instance, the cause and effect could be backwards: it could be some semi-public (semi-secret?) news came out to a *bunch* of people, and the newsletter author was one of them? ~a
[2019-12-11 09:45:13] - https://wtop.com/fairfax-county/2019/12/the-battle-over-cut-through-commuter-traffic/ I can kinda understand the sentiment behind this idea, but the execution seems awful. Are we really going to be having permits to be allowed to turn onto certain roads during certain time periods and allocating police resources towards enforcing it? -Paul
[2019-12-11 09:30:54] - https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-record-outflows-are-contrarian-buy-signal-bernstein-2019-9-1028548196 Can somebody help walk me through how there could be a record outflow of money from US stocks and yet the market goes up? Is it just because there is a corresponding (or greater) lack of sellers... somehow? -Paul
[2019-12-11 09:18:05] - a: Wow, I wonder what accounts for that? I guess the idea is that as things get more hopeless seeming.... that males are even more likely to commit suicide? It's weird to see a ratio like that vary. -Paul
[2019-12-11 09:17:13] - Xpovos: Heh, I suppose maybe you're right. -Paul
[2019-12-11 09:16:42] - a: Oh, yeah, I wasn't suggesting doing anything about the stock. I just find it interesting that some random site can pretty clearly move a small cap stock like that. Really puts into perspective how markets can be manipulated. -Paul
[2019-12-10 21:33:07] - yikes that's a stark contrast. ~a
[2019-12-10 20:35:19] - Paul: Maybe she did and that's why there was no prenup? -- Xpovos
[2019-12-10 17:31:21] - seems too much like gambling to me. more so, it seems like it'll only pay out sometimes. you're trying to determine, not if the company is good, and has a positive long term potential. you're trying to determine what the short-term opinions of a bunch of day traders are. and . . . if those day traders will take the bait. but, also that they'll sell after you do. do you disagree? ~a
[2019-12-10 14:33:42] - a: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/profit-line/whats-this-hinted-at-profit-line-recommendation-for-tomorrow/ This is super interesting to me. Stock Gumshoe is a site that tries to decipher stock teases from newsletter services. Check out the stock chart of this microcap that they figured out was being teased. I got their email at 1:30 today. It looks like you can see movement because of it. -Paul
[2019-12-10 11:19:14] - https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/jeff-bezos-this-is-how-to-avoid-regret.html I'm writing something where I wanted to reference the regret minimization framework that Jeff Bezos apparently lives by and it occurred to me that maybe his wife should've seen his affair coming.
-Paul[2019-12-10 09:55:23] - (otoh, maybe i'm thinking of a conversion ladder, which probably doesn't help here) ~a
[2019-12-10 09:40:09] - daniel: have you considered a roth ira? i think you can contribute to a roth ira in retirement (maybe even via backdoor, but that usually doesn't matter in retirement). since i'm not in retirement, i'm not studied up on the details. (there's some sort of 5-year rule i don't know. it does seem weird to contribute to a retirement plan in retirement, but afaik there are situations where it makes sense). ~a
[2019-12-09 17:53:07] - a: I'm helping my grandmother with her retirement money (she is already retired). It is like 90% in taxable investments. Pains me a little bit. -Daniel
[2019-12-09 11:09:56] - a: Most of them are. Every once in awhile when the emergency fund gets a little too big and the rate on CDs are hovering around 2% (and it's not time to continue the ladder), I put a little money in Robinhood. I'm honestly not sure which I use and if it's something that can be set. I typically do all or nothing on sells. -Paul
[2019-12-09 10:56:21] - i don't use robinhood, sorry. i thought most of your individual stocks were in non-taxable accounts. if you have stuff in taxable accounts, i have a lot of questions for you!
(mostly i just want to know if you're using fifo or specid and why). ~a[2019-12-09 10:19:17] - Anybody here use Robinhood and know if I can find anywhere what my current YTD gain/loss numbers are so I can see if I can take advantage of some tax-loss harvesting? -Paul
[2019-12-09 09:16:58] - https://twitter.com/FordFischer/status/1203485521151959040 Curious what people think of this (hopefully the tweet is visible to anybody even without a twitter account). I think it's awesome, but I am obviously biased.
-Paul[2019-12-06 13:11:02] - a: Hmmm. Fair point. Might be worth switching (back?) to that next challenge? Honestly, I tend to manually input the starting value so it doesn't make a huge difference to me. -Paul
[2019-12-06 12:38:51] - paul: "previous close". it's something that a lot of people use because you can chain them together. "open" and "close" you cannot because one unit of times open != the previous close, so . . . there's like a difference that's otherwise annoying to account for. ~a
[2019-12-06 12:37:50] - a: Correct on the meaning of "current". If you weren't using "open" before, what were you using? -Paul
[2019-12-06 12:23:02] - "current". i assume you mean "current" as of settling time, right? not "current" meaning today? ~a
[2019-12-06 12:22:07] - one change from previous challenges. i changed the starting price to use "open" to be consistent with your fantasy website thing. ~a
[2019-12-06 12:21:16] - a: I'm fine either way. I was more looking for clarification while the competition is tight and essentially could go either way. If you truly don't care, why don't we put $20 on it (I'm good with btc at whatever the current exchange rate is). -Paul
[2019-12-06 12:19:46] - we don't. but i'm fine with the standard ($20, settled however, everybody but paul and adrian are exempt and cannot win). ~a
[2019-12-06 12:16:23] - a: Do we have a bet on the stock market challenge / fantasy investing for this year? Was it something like $20 in bitcoin previous years? -Paul
[2019-12-06 10:27:41] - a: Re: Yext. Yeah, I saw their earnings and the big drop. Thought about buying some at market open, but I also have a bad track record lately buying companies when they drop so I wanted to wait a bit and see. -Paul
[2019-12-06 10:22:16] - a: Agreed. There's definitely skill to that and not getting caught out of position or by a good blink.... but I find that's often how I get crushed by void rays. They sneak into my main, I bring my army back, then they retreat and wipe out my colony before my army can get there. Big mobility that isn't vulnerable to other air. -Paul
[2019-12-06 10:15:01] - "hop back and forth between the main and colony and hydralisks can't cover both" that's sometimes easier said than done. ~a
[2019-12-06 10:14:55] - a: That's the underrated difficulty of dealing with void rays. Sure, there might be ways for straight up stalkers or hydras to win in a straight up fight, but void rays can then just dodge and do massive damage while the other side is struggling to catch up. -Paul
[2019-12-06 10:14:00] - a: Yes and yes. There's a speed upgrade (I think? Or am I thinking of roaches?), and they are faster on creep, but plenty of maps have cliffs where you can just hop back and forth between the main and colony and hydralisks can't cover both. -Paul
[2019-12-06 10:12:51] - paul: whoops. at least they gained some from opening (opening was -22%). ~a
[2019-12-06 10:10:48] - paul: yeah, that doesn't surprise me. mass hydra is ugly against void rays. . . . ugly for protoss. the problem is that hydra are so slow (they can be sped up though, right?) ~a
[2019-12-06 09:27:14] - Daniel: Corrupters are bad because they are armored, and void rays do extra against armored, apparently. -Paul
[2019-12-06 09:26:51] - Daniel: From what I can tell, the best counter to void rays for Zerg is mass hydra. I feel like that's not ideal on many maps, because void rays can be so much more mobile on account of flying, but there it is. -Paul
[2019-12-05 14:48:09] - yeah that's fair. they often pair that task with a "retention" specialist. yikes. ~a
[2019-12-05 13:38:54] - a: Hopefully I don't have to interact with a real person to do that. I had to do that in order to close out a CD with Synchrony and it was the worst. -Paul
[2019-12-05 13:07:38] - yeah but seriously the second option is probably the real one. you tell them you want to close your account and that they can send the remaining balance to your address on file. ~a
[2019-12-05 13:03:01] - a: Huh, moving more money in so that I can move all of it out is an interesting hack. I guess I need to time it so that I don't earn interest on that money? -Paul
[2019-12-05 11:41:11] - second option: tell them. they'll let you close your account I'm sure. ~a
[2019-12-05 11:38:30] - move money in? won't work if there are fees or something but otherwise might me a good plan. ~a
[2019-12-05 11:09:04] - Hmmm, I'm trying to close out an online savings account by transferring all of the money to another account. A few months ago, I transferred it all out, but after the transfer an interest payment was deposited. So I went to go transfer that out, but it says I can't because transfers have to be at least $25. Is it now impossible to liquidate this online savings account? -Paul
[2019-12-04 15:14:53] - no need to second guess your gains. ~a
[2019-12-04 15:13:24] - a: I'm just glad I bit the bullet and bought in Jan 2017 despite the fact it had already run up so much and I felt like I missed the boat. Only wish I had added some along the way (I really should have considering how often I picked it as one of my favorite ideas in the stock market challenge). -Paul
[2019-12-04 15:12:10] - a: My original comment had an aside about how it has been extremely up and down and I also thought about just pointing out how it's up 20% this week (and 7% today), but I like pimping my own articles more.
-Paul[2019-12-04 15:12:09] - paul: i'm holding a bit of shop, but i did sell some at 314 many months ago. ~a
[2019-12-04 15:11:12] - paul: shop is up 20% since monday morning (hovered around 312 that morning. it was at 306 on june 10th). your decision was right, sure, but i'm not sure you felt the same way on monday
~a[2019-12-04 15:04:13] - https://paulvsthemarket.com/taking-a-risk-on-shopify/ Shopify up around 23% since I wrote this 6 months ago. Guess I made the right decision (so far). -Paul
[2019-12-04 14:52:02] - money is racist. ~a
[2019-12-04 14:36:13] - dat's racist? -- Xpovos
[2019-12-04 13:47:35] - colored coins. ~a
[2019-12-04 13:14:19] - a: Yeah, money is fungible. It's kinda meaningless to say that money from one specific revenue stream will go towards one specific program. -Paul
[2019-12-04 13:02:08] - paul: of course you're right. and, i was thinking, they don't even have to change the rules. they just have to divert other money away from mass transit to some other quagmire, and boom, you've increased the budget of the government (without even increasing the budget to mass transit). ~a
[2019-12-04 12:54:29] - a: Sure, but I doubt they'll decide to stop giving money to mass transit in order to cut people's taxes. I stand by 1%.
-Paul[2019-12-04 12:53:40] - paul: according to the wikipedia article, the 2017 version, "80%, would be used for the Staten Island Railway, New York City Subway, and mta [bus], while 10% each would be given to the Long Island rail road and metro-north rail". of course, they're always allowed to change the rules later (and they usually do), so take that with a most giant grain of salt. ~a
[2019-12-04 12:46:00] - so you're saying there's a chance. ~a
[2019-12-04 12:45:42] - a: The tax on cars? I say there's maybe a 1% chance of that happening. Probably going towards increasing the budget of the government. -Paul
[2019-12-04 12:41:56] - i wonder where the tax money is going. lowering peoples income tax hopefully
~a[2019-12-04 11:44:30] - i love this theme. ~a
[2019-12-04 11:33:41] - a: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3523693-amazon-ups-testing-cargo-bikes-in-nyc -Paul
[2019-12-04 10:12:24] - paul: yah. my guess is they don't directly take it into account: but maybe indirectly. ~a
[2019-12-04 10:09:44] - a: Sure. I wasn't trying to say it was more dangerous for bikes. I was more thinking that icy sidewalks and bad weather could be just as significant a factor as... I dunno, number of bike trails or whatever else they use for their rankings. -Paul
[2019-12-04 10:05:51] - my kinetic energy on the icy roads headed to work: 1kJ. your kinetic energy on the icy roads headed to work: 1MJ. ~a
[2019-12-04 10:03:07] - yeah, icy roads? sure. the problem i see (ICY!) is icy roads are more dangerous for cars because of their massive weight. ~a
[2019-12-04 09:51:16] - a: Yeah, I wonder if they factored in icy sidewalks as a downside for bike friendliness.
-Paul[2019-12-04 09:50:28] - i've spent a lot of time in nyc: it is very friendly. if i'm worried about pedestrians and not (as) worried about cars, that's a good sign of bike friendliness. minneapolis was a god damn dream, too bad it's fucking cold most of the year. ~a
[2019-12-04 09:43:45] - paul:
69. nice. ~a[2019-12-04 09:19:33] - a: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/redfin-unveils-the-most-bikeable-u-s-cities-of-2020-1028736856 -Paul
[2019-12-03 21:01:49] - you may say i'm a dreamer. ~a
[2019-12-03 16:38:06] - I'm with Paul on that last point
-Daniel[2019-12-03 16:27:26] - a: You have weird dreams. -Paul
[2019-12-03 16:10:15] - i fall asleep every night with visions of much skinnier car roads and much wider pedestrian roads. especially through large towns and cities where cars are confusingly awkward. ~a
[2019-12-03 16:03:43] - the fewer cars per capita would, in a perfect world, be replaced by towns that are better planned so people can live closer to their workplace, telecommute, plus trains/metros/busses, and sidewalks, and mopeds, etc. ~a
[2019-12-03 16:00:55] - paul: i think the world would be better if we had fewer cars (per capita). so i'd say "yes, our car culture is bad", but i would NOT say "cars should all be destroyed". ~a
[2019-12-03 15:59:22] - a: It isn't all upsides, but I think it mostly is. Do you think the downsides outweigh the upsides? -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:58:14] - a: Right, and everybody came home to a hot home cooked meal from their housewife.
-Paul[2019-12-03 15:57:34] - it's funny, back before cars, everybody had a pretty easy time getting to work in less than 2 hours. i think you'd at least agree that our car culture doesn't ONLY have upsides. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:56:03] - a: Right, we've established that you hate cars and wish they would all go away so everybody could take 2 hours to get to and from work and need a shower afterwards. I'm... a little less radical.
-Paul[2019-12-03 15:49:58] - oh man wouldn't that be nice. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:49:32] - a: Oh, absolutely. I wasn't saying I don't draw a line. Everybody does. I'm just saying that the argument that it's a trade-off between inconveniencing some people vs people actually dying isn't one that holds much weight to me. If we go down that road we should set a universal speed limit of like 20 mph and outlaw left turns or whatever. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:47:38] - "It just isn't a trade-off I'm interested in making" ok, i guess we can agree to disagree, that's fine. i'm interested in this trade-off. very interested. i won't take it to the extreme, but i'm interested "I'm not swayed by the emotional plea of scraping pedestrians off the sidewalk" i am. "Every policy has trade-offs where human lives are measured" of course. and we all draw the line somewhere. even you draw the line somewhere. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:45:14] - a: Sure. I'm even willing to concede that it might reduce cell-phone use related accidents. It just isn't a trade-off I'm interested in making. And I'm sorry but I'm not swayed by the emotional plea of scraping pedestrians off the sidewalk. Every policy has trade-offs where human lives are measured. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:43:18] - "people will find a way around it" some will. some people will stop using their smartphones. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:41:47] - how would camouflaged phone cases make things more dangerous? ~a
[2019-12-03 15:41:15] - a: More seriously, though, there have to be some limitations to the cameras. And I'm sure people will find a way around it which will probably make things even more dangerous. Camouflaged phone cases? -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:41:07] - ok, i don't think the cameras can see up skirts. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:40:24] - a: *Shrug* I guess I don't see being on a public road an excuse for any kind of behavior. "But officer, that upskirt shot was of a woman walking on a public road!"
-Paul[2019-12-03 15:39:01] - "creepy" nah. not creepy at all. you're on a public road (sorry to get all emotional, but i don't find it nearly as creepy as scraping pedestrians off the pavement) ~a
[2019-12-03 15:37:52] - a: I guess I'm unclear as to exactly how "all-seeing" these cameras are and where they are positioned? Surely there is some way a phone could be used without the camera catching it? If not... that's a little creepy. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:36:56] - paul: uhh, what? the camera can see you using your phone. maybe you're talking about people reading their phones instead of clicking on them. i think it's the clicking on the phone that is the big problem. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:36:01] - a: Right, so what is next? Passenger seat? Something else unsafe? -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:35:05] - paul: cameras can see the phone in your lap. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:34:42] - a: So instead of having the phone up so people can watch where they are driving AND look at their phone, people put it closer to their laps, where it couldn't be seen by cops but also made driving more dangerous. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:34:01] - a: "the amount of evil a government can do with those kinds of cameras is dulled" Maybe. Another problem is how do people react? This could be anecdotal, but I remember hearing that having cops pull people over for using their phones while driving doesn't necessarily mean everybody stops using them, it means they stopped using them in plain sight... -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:33:50] - paul: that's cool. i like that info. uber drivers are usually not using their smartphones or drunk. i think gig-economy does have major downsides, but i'm happy it has decreased the drunk driving problem. smartphone use though i think overwhelmed your gains there though. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:31:57] - a: For example, I think studies have shown that letting Uber operate (which is no longer a battleground issue for most people) helps to reduce drunk driving deaths. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:31:13] - "I also don't want the government to have cameras in every room of my house looking for it" ah ok. well there we might find some common ground. i think having cameras everywhere is a problem (that's something i said earlier). where we might disagree though, i think a public street (especially a non-urban one) is fair game for cameras. the amount of evil a government can do with those kinds of cameras is dulled (but not eliminated). ~a
[2019-12-03 15:30:04] - a: "wouldn't have a marked effect on deaths" I don't know if it would. I guess my point is more that it is a red herring. I think there's probably lots of better things we can do to prevent drunk driving deaths than to quibble over the strictness of drunk driving laws. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:28:06] - a: "you just don't want the laws we currently have to be enforced?" No...? I mean, I think child abuse should be illegal, but I also don't want the government to have cameras in every room of my house looking for it. When did you stop beating your wife? -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:24:11] - . . . maybe you're taking the optimism bias too far. or maybe i'm not taking it far enough. but if you think that making DUIs legal, or if you were to completely stop enforcing the dui laws we have, wouldn't have a marked effect on deaths, i'm at a loss. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:23:04] - oof. ok. so you do think it should be illegal for you to text and drive. you just don't want the laws we currently have to be enforced? that's an odd approach too. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:23:02] - a: If there is optimism bias as you say, shouldn't people not be dissuaded from driving drunk for fear of getting caught or getting into an accident? -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:22:22] - a: "but that's not what we were discussing. we were talking about making it completely legal/permitted" No, we weren't. Or at least I wasn't. I don't recall ever saying I thought people should be permitted to use their phone while driving. I just didn't want more attempts to try to root out those things. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:21:21] - a: Um... it's not a position I would argue for, but I also am not terribly interested in arguing against it. I suspect more drunk driving is prevented by things like social pressure or the existence of Uber and Lyft than the threat of jail time. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:21:16] - DUI deaths would go through the roof. you're crazy. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:20:30] - drunk off your ass, you get pulled over, no punishment. carry on. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:20:07] - you focus on drunk driving checkpoints, but that's not what we were discussing. we were talking about making it completely legal/permitted. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:19:45] - i doubt you think it should be legal for people to drive drunk (despite what you said)
. ~a[2019-12-03 15:19:35] - a: Inconsistent how? -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:19:16] - a: So I would be against more drunk driving checkpoints AND more traffic cameras spying on people to catch phone use. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:19:08] - paul: of course, but your consistency seems inconsistent. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:18:45] - a: I... think I know what you're trying to do? But I'm also a little confused by your approach. I am consistently against further attempts to investigate people for inherently victim-less activities in attempts to prevent bad things from happening. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:15:57] - a: Sure, we can make it legal if you want. Seems like an odd approach considering a few minutes ago you were supporting traffic cameras at intersections to catch people using their phones.... -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:14:14] - "it's tied pretty strongly to accidents?" more tied strongly to car crashes than texting? ~a
[2019-12-03 15:13:38] - shouldn't we make driving drunk legal? if it's safer than using your smartphone? ~a
[2019-12-03 15:13:36] - a: Why... what? Having it be illegal? Because it's tied pretty strongly to accidents? -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:13:24] - like why make it illegal i mean. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:12:53] - paul: why? driving drunk is much safer. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:12:33] - a: Sure, we can make driving drunk illegal. But I would be against drunk driving check points at every intersection. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:12:02] - So, yeah, maybe owning a high capacity ammunition magazine is illegal, but I still consider it a "pre-crime" kinda thing. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:11:50] - paul: right. so what about my analogy then. driving drunk? ~a
[2019-12-03 15:11:18] - a: I'm saying that in this case, the term "pre-crime" for me doesn't refer to whether or not something is technically illegal. It more refers to attempts to criminalize things as a preventative measure instead of criminalizing the things that are actually bad. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:10:34] - many studies have shown you're a much better driver driving drunk than using your smartphone. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:09:54] - paul: i don't follow. do you think driving drunk should be legal? ~a
[2019-12-03 15:09:19] - a: Yeah, but that's kinda of a tautology. We only make it a crime because we want to prevent the bad thing from happening (accidents). I'm sure the way Minority Report works is that they also criminalized "going to kill somebody". -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:08:10] - using your phone while driving is a post-crime. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:07:59] - this isn't a pre-crime. ~a
[2019-12-03 15:07:48] - a: I would rather not. Less Minority Report pre-crime penalties please. -Paul
[2019-12-03 15:03:16] - (my opinion is heavily skewed by the actual drivers who have almost literally ended me while using their smartphones to text/message/etc) ~a
[2019-12-03 15:01:28] - "I also just think they're an awful idea on their own" though i agree cameras pointed at public spaces is problematic at best, the cameras are already there and already being used for nefarious uses (imo). can't we also use them for good? ~a
[2019-12-03 15:00:41] - a: According to my bet with you, self driving cars are only 6 years away.
I don't reject cameras solely because I want self-driving cars. I also just think they're an awful idea on their own. -Paul[2019-12-03 14:58:49] - paul: you sound like george bush (43) promoting hydrogen cars (vs hybrid/electric cars) knowing that hydrogen powered cars were at least a few decades away when hybrid/electric cars could see benefits immediately. at least you're not being malicious like bush was, but you are making the same mistake. self driving cars are a long ways away, cameras looking out for cell phone use can happen now. ~a
[2019-12-03 14:56:07] - a: Ugh, no thank you to cameras looking out for using phones while driving. Just give me self driving cars, please. -Paul
[2019-12-03 14:33:21] - "optimistic biases are even reported in non-human animals such as rats and birds"
~a[2019-12-03 14:32:31] - remember the days when we were afraid of people holding phones up to their ears to make phone calls?! jesus those were the days. "hands free" calling only, wtf i long for those days. how about a thing that's literally taking your eyes off of the road for precious seconds at a time, and is also insanely addicting. people texting and messaging on their phones while driving is dripping with the optimism bias. ~a
[2019-12-03 14:26:39] - omg, yes please. (i'm stifling the part of me that knows AI looking through video cameras pointed at streets is a terrible line to cross. but fuck, we've long since crossed it, might at well also use it for good) ~a
[2019-12-03 14:25:18] - buttigieg! . . . i predict he would lose in the general against trump. trump has zero morals, it would be a bloodbath. ~a
[2019-12-03 14:25:06] - paul: you had already lost the draft. ~a
[2019-12-03 13:51:11] - Daniel: Sorry, I missed your link about the Peloton ads. I had seen that before but it never ceases to be funny. -Paul
[2019-12-03 13:32:11] - I can't believe Gabbard (and Williamson?) outlasted Harris. -Paul
[2019-12-03 13:27:28] - There goes my chances in the presidential candidate draft. I really should've reached and gone for Buttigieg. -Paul
[2019-12-03 13:26:42] - https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/03/kamala-harris-drops-out-out-of-presidential-race-074902 Ouch. I haven't been so wrong about a political candidate since.... the last presidential election.
-Paul[2019-12-03 12:24:03] - fsa companies are getting that tax-benefit from workers through their various scams and turning it (some of it) into lobbying dollars. ~a
[2019-12-03 12:19:26] - paul: so, then there's lobbying (from companies that make all this FSA money). lawmakers have no incentive to do the right thing. ~a
[2019-12-03 12:18:05] - a: Oh, sure. I kinda know businesses pay a lot for these things behind the scenes. I was more selfishly talking about the things that directly effect me, though.
That's a good point, though. I would rather the companies not have to pay for these things and just give me a higher salary and reduce my taxes some. -Paul[2019-12-03 12:15:56] - paul: you probably also aren't accounting for the money the company pays in. (surprise!) ~a
[2019-12-03 12:15:27] - a: Drives me even more crazy that the money is forfeit if you get terminated. That was your money! You should at least be able to get it back. -Paul
[2019-12-03 12:14:39] - a: Oh, I know. But even if you just contribute $1k and are in a 20% tax bracket, that's $200 right there. But, yeah, there's a lot of risk there too. -Paul
[2019-12-03 12:14:11] - paul: the other thing that drives me nuts is when they fucking deny claims. like, dude, that's not even your money! ~a
[2019-12-03 12:13:03] - "it should save a few hundred dollars in taxes" only sometimes. often not. you listed one downside to your plan. another common scam is the use-it-or-lose-it scheme. ~a
[2019-12-03 12:11:33] - a: Eh, I wouldn't say it is a scam, but it just seems so poorly executed and so clunky. I hate not utilizing it since it should save a few hundred dollars in taxes, but using it effectively requires so much work! -Paul
[2019-12-03 12:09:01] - paul: most fsas are a borderline-scam. they probably make money hand over fist. maybe i should invest in fsa companies, because i can't see how they benefit anybody but the fsa company. we've talked about fsas before. ~a
[2019-12-03 12:04:24] - FSA funds are paid up in entirety at the beginning of the year but are forfeit if the employee is terminated? That seems like a decently high risk and reason to avoid contributing the max. Or maybe I'm just paranoid after being terminated a few more times than I would like.
-Paul[2019-12-03 12:03:14] - Daniel: I am pretty sure I don't have the hottest team right now. Kittle and Conner have been injured. Kupp has been inconsistent. But all those teams have something to play for so hopefully they come back with a vengeance. -Paul
[2019-12-03 11:56:29] - Paul: Yeah I was trying to trade with Mark at one point and he didn't want to trade with me since he thought I was going to be the strongest team. I thought he was crazy. I definitely think you had the best team going into the year. I'm not sure who has the hottest team currently. My team has a ton of injury issues this year. -Daniel
[2019-12-03 11:23:39] - Daniel: I'll be pretty disappointed if I don't win this year, though. The stars have aligned and this is probably one of the strongest teams I've fielded in awhile. This is a special season from Jackson at QB, I've got 2 pretty good WRs (not even counting OBJ). I should be able to piece together 2 stud RBs, and my TE is pretty elite too. -Paul
[2019-12-03 10:56:36] - Daniel: If chalk holds up, we should face each other in the finals. My team has struggled some lately, though. Need Kupp and Hopkins to get back to being studs and either Conner or OBJ to turn things around. -Paul
[2019-12-03 10:55:54] - I've mostly clinched (I think). But Randy / Tim / Dave are close enough its not set (I think). -Daniel
[2019-12-03 10:55:20] - Daniel: Oh, wow, okay. Well, I think you and Randy are pretty much locks courtesy of being a game up and having more points for. Looking at the teams, I think I would rather Tim make it in since his team seems less scary to me than Dave's. -Paul
[2019-12-03 10:54:15] - Paul: Only you have clinched. -Daniel
[2019-12-03 10:53:51] - Paul: I saw this making fun of the ad, its funny - https://twitter.com/ClueHeywood/status/1089702015767179265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1089702015767179265&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fftw.us -Daniel
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