prev <-> next
[2020-01-25 17:31:13] - a: i've watched the first two episodes of TNG! i started on S1E1 and i'm working my way forward - aaron
[2020-01-25 12:52:44] - (also you should probably watch the first two episodes of tng if you're planning on watching the whole series. they refer to that episode on occasion) ~a
[2020-01-25 12:51:52] - to be clear, i love season 1 and 2, but i take it in context: there's nothing objectively good about season 1, and even season 2 has its problems. ~a
[2020-01-25 12:51:09] - season 1 is very campy, sure. it takes a season or two for it to get into its groove. if you search for "the best 10 tng episodes" or something like that, most of them are seasons 6 and 7 (with a few sprinkled in from seasons 4 and 5). ~a
[2020-01-25 12:47:53] - sorry -- i'm on season 1 episode 3. got those numbers backwards - aaron
[2020-01-25 12:47:27] - i've started watching Star Trek: The Next Generation, i'm on season 3 episode 1. it's the first star trek series i've ever watched, so far i'm enjoying it although the storylines seem almost deliberately campy like a throwback to the original series, where they all revolve around crew members getting drunk having sex and fighting to the death (or sometimes all three) - aaron
[2020-01-23 13:31:40] - a: I feel old. But then again, Google assumes I'm in my late-60s. Journalism is dying, but it's not "young people's fault," there's always been a tension between "news" and "sensationalism." Right now sensationalism is winning out. It'll probably flip back over in a decade or two. -- Xpovos
[2020-01-23 13:28:20] - a: Is regular adult a category? Can it be after young adult but before middle aged? I don't think of myself as a young adult anymore but also maybe as almost middle aged but not entirely there yet. -Daniel
[2020-01-23 13:19:56] - paul/daniel: are we young people? when do you stop being a young adult? wikipedia says that "middle age" begins in your 40s. so i guess that makes us young still? ~a
[2020-01-23 13:15:19] - Paul: I think journalism is worse (as a whole) but I definitely don't think its young peoples fault. I think its just everyones. -Daniel
[2020-01-23 13:11:41] - So it's agreed. All of us in our late 30s think that journalism is worse than it was before and it's all the young people's fault.
-Paul[2020-01-23 12:33:09] - I think ad money is an important part. Gotta get clicks. Steady reasoned journalism doesn't get clicks (or apparently enough newspaper subscriptions to X's point). -Daniel
[2020-01-23 12:02:45] - News media is now almost exclusively coastal. The internet has gutted small/medium papers. The national narrative drives everything. So, Twitter just reflects who uses it. And then they reflect that back into the news. -- Xpovos
[2020-01-23 12:01:35] - Paul: IMO, part of this comes from the speed of Twitter, the need for scoops in journalism, and related factors, but as I've said before, I think a very large part of this is also the tribalism and the nature of who is even using Twitter (hint: journalists). Twitter is an ecosystem and it is hostile to much of what would have been journalism 50 years ago, or would be in certain parts of this country, if there were journalists left there.
[2020-01-23 11:56:55] - Yeah, I don't want to sound like an old man railing about how things were better back in my time, but things weren't always this bad with journalism, right? It feels like a bunch of youngsters just watching their twitter feed and counting what happens there as news somehow... -Paul
[2020-01-23 11:25:16] - It's getting to the point that Twitter and journalism are indistinguishable in many cases. That's a bad thing for both, but particularly for journalism. -- Xpovos
[2020-01-23 10:32:20] - paul: "Others pushed back" seems like some hard-hitting journalism (sarcasm). basically "others pushed back" can be put onto pretty much every high-profile twitter conversation. still, it's pretty common these days. here's an article i feel like i've read a dozen times now: "[person] said something benign on twitter, and it's gone viral." "..., and it's started a firestorm" "..., and the responses are on point". ~a
[2020-01-23 10:25:38] - daniel: it is something else (but maybe overlaps with uber / taxi). i think it's closer to MetroAccess based on my googling. this graph is pretty old, and predates uber/lyft. it could be taxis are lumped in with MetroAccess-like systems, i'm not sure. ~a
[2020-01-23 09:59:36] - a: Whats "demand response"? Like uber / taxi? Or something else? -Daniel
[2020-01-23 09:50:49] - https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/22/politics/justin-trudeau-doughnut-shop-prices/index.html Is this entire "story" basically that a few people on Twitter had something critical to say about a photo Trudeau posted? That seems kinda lame. -Paul
[2020-01-23 09:23:40] - i found this graph on wikipedia today. the thing that surprised me is: air travel isn't as bad as i thought: "car - 1 person" and "car - average trip" are both worse than domestic air? another thing that surprised me, metro isn't as good as i thought: i.e. "inner city rail" and "car - 2 person" are the same. ~a
_per_passenger_mile_(USA_2008).png){kind=link}
[2020-01-22 14:33:52] - paul: i’d be interested. - mig
[2020-01-22 10:33:56] - https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/22/tech/jeff-bezos-mbs-phone-hack/index.html I thought this story was going to peak when Bezos tweeted out that he was being blackmailed by the existence of "below the belt" pictures from a tabloid associated with Trump, but it keeps getting more interesting. -Paul
[2020-01-21 18:00:29] - Re: Diplomacy, I'm interested. -- Xpovos
[2020-01-21 10:24:26] - in. ~a
[2020-01-21 10:11:00] - Daniel: You coming out this area anytime soon to claim your trophy and/or draft with us?
-Paul[2020-01-21 10:10:30] - I'd be interested but I think the logistics would be tough to work out. -Daniel
[2020-01-21 10:09:04] - Oddly enough, the Diplomacy the board game came up recently and there seemed to be some interest in playing a game some day in person. Who here might be interested in playing if I can convince Gurkie to watch the kids for a day? -Paul
[2020-01-17 14:43:50] - perfect phone call. ~a
[2020-01-16 11:22:27] - a: Looks good, thanks! -Paul
[2020-01-16 11:00:20] - paul: i added a line to your "Wagers" document. feel free to remove the question marks and the red-background if you agree. i also created a second sheet for "resolved" (old) bets. ~a
[2020-01-15 14:32:15] - Daniel: Yeah, there's a lot of ways a conversation could go where two people could reasonably come away with different interpretations. I do think Warren comes across as more suspicious, though. Why did this come out now, right before the Iowa Caucus? Why didn't she seem to want to make a big deal defending it at the debate? -Paul
[2020-01-15 14:30:32] - The most striking thing to me was the moderator did not similarly press Warren about her allegation. There was no similar confirmation question "So you are stating that what Bernie Sanders just said was a lie?" - mig
[2020-01-15 14:27:25] - I saw stuff where people were trying to decide who was lying or who was more trustworthy. My guess is neither of lying. Its probably just a matter of interpretation. I would be pretty surprised if Bernie said straight out I don't think a woman can win the US the presidency. But I would also be surprised if Warren is just straight making it up. -Daniel
[2020-01-15 14:26:14] - Daniel: No problem. I'm sure it'll come up in the podcast recording tonight. -Paul
[2020-01-15 14:25:47] - Paul: Gotcha. Thanks! -Daniel
[2020-01-15 14:24:13] - Sorry, I suppose it should've been "Senator Sanders" or "Bernie" should've been outside the quote. I don't recall the exact words, but the idea is that the moderator asked both questions as if he had said it instead of treating it as a disputed story. -Paul
[2020-01-15 14:23:17] - Daniel: Then the moderator asks Warren how she felt when "Bernie said that to you" (or something to that effect). -Paul
[2020-01-15 14:22:50] - Daniel: So during the debate, maybe about halfway through, the moderator referenced that story in a question to Bernie and ends with, "Why did you say that to her?" or something to that effect. Bernie said very clearly that he did not say it. The moderator asks for clarification if he said it, and Bernie confirmed he did not. -Paul
[2020-01-15 14:21:40] - Daniel: Yeah, basically. -Paul
[2020-01-15 14:21:29] - Daniel: Okay, well, a few days ago somebody leaked the story that Bernie had told Warren that he didn't think a woman could win the presidency. Bernie vehemently denied it. Warren said it happened. -Paul
[2020-01-15 14:21:24] - Warren (or someone in her camp?) said that Bernie said he didn't think a woman could win in 2020? Something like that? Which Bernie denied? Thats about what I know currently. -Daniel
[2020-01-15 14:20:37] - Paul: I saw a few things about it but didn't watch any clips. -Daniel
[2020-01-15 14:04:25] - Daniel: Have you heard about the back and forth between him and Warren about Sanders supposedly saying that a woman can't win the presidency? -Paul
[2020-01-15 14:03:48] - I didn't watch - what was the question(s) that were so bad directed at Sanders? -Daniel
[2020-01-15 13:35:11] - mig: I figured it would be more like, "Why did you decide to stop beating your wife?" -Paul
[2020-01-15 13:14:42] - mig: It's coming. -- Xpovos
[2020-01-15 12:37:26] - was anyone else surprised at last night’s debate the moderators didn’t also ask Sanders if he had stopped beating his wife? - mig
[2020-01-15 12:28:02] - a: Not sure precisely when it happened, but SHOP is now officially a ten bagger for me (current value is 10x my cost basis). What an incredible run for something I bought basically 3 years ago. -Paul
[2020-01-15 11:06:02] - sort of . . . it's a marathon where we can't change our picks. so really it's just a different kind of sprint: week of december 31st, sprinting to decide what to pick. ~a
[2020-01-15 10:57:30] - a: Just 7%, but yeah, point taken. I was feeling really good about my picks until I saw others with Tesla and Beyond Meat. Still, it's a marathon and not a sprint. -Paul
[2020-01-15 10:55:30] - paul: nope. looks good. this makes me smile: tgt is the only time i put something into the challenge that i didn't own in real life. it's down like a million percent today. ~a
[2020-01-15 10:16:56] - a: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N_Ac-TNLkKZiv7Jxeg04SchRKgB60KntbhAPCmeLEOk/edit#gid=0 Okay, I think I made the start values all static (so it doesn't rely on the google finance API to pull it). Any more requests before I put the spreadsheet out there? -Paul
[2020-01-15 09:54:19] - https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28486139/virginia-tech-justin-fuente-favorites-baylor-job Anybody have any thoughts on this? I'm not somebody who has been clamoring to show Fuente the door, but if he's interested in a job like this which seems like a sideways move then I'm fine with him leaving. The team's performance the past few years hasn't been great. -Paul
[2020-01-14 11:16:50] - a: Congrats. I own no shares of BYND. I'm still pretty pleased with the 8% gain on my portfolio. Hopefully it's a little more sustainable over the next 12 months, but we'll see. -Paul
[2020-01-14 09:59:55] - so in a way, i'm happy to be getting crushed. ~a
[2020-01-14 09:59:40] - paul: i own bynd ~a
[2020-01-14 09:51:28] - a: Look at BYND in 2020. Somebody picked it for Fantasy Investing. We're getting crushed. -Paul
[2020-01-14 09:42:58] - So... who you all believe? Bernie or Warren? -Paul
[2020-01-14 09:42:30] - aaron: Cool! I haven't seen any yet, but I would be excited to see one. -Paul
[2020-01-13 16:27:07] - paul: and yeah, i didn't think fully autonomous vehicles were legal in virginia. but, i saw some articles online that said maybe they were starting to test that stuff in this area as of 2019 - aaron
[2020-01-13 16:26:50] - aaron: Got it, although at first I thought that was your guess about the self-driving car.
-Paul[2020-01-13 16:26:17] - paul: (that's my guess as to why we mess around in the middle east) - aaron
[2020-01-13 16:25:41] - paul: my guess is that we have a ton of military personnel who are challenged every year at budget meetings to justify their own existence, and new military conflicts is an easy way to do that - aaron
[2020-01-13 16:24:38] - yeah that's a good point. even with a humans inside they tend to still kill pedestrians on occasion. ~a
[2020-01-13 16:23:58] - aaron: Wait, is that legal in Virginia? I thought most places still required a human in case of problems. -Paul
[2020-01-13 16:23:23] - we live in the fucking future. ~a
[2020-01-13 16:23:07] - a: no, she says she saw a car with nobody in it whatsoever. no passenger and no driver. - aaron
[2020-01-13 15:59:01] - aaron: i have not. assuming we aren't counting the tesla's features. ~a
[2020-01-13 15:56:17] - aaron: I don't think so? I've seen a Google Maps car. -Paul
[2020-01-13 15:35:38] - has anybody seen any self-driving cars in the NoVa area? my coworker says she saw one at plaza america today - aaron
[2020-01-13 15:10:44] - a: I said, "so far".
-Paul[2020-01-13 15:10:04] - it's january 13th. ~a
[2020-01-13 15:09:42] - a: Maybe, but to be clear, I am crushing the market (as is the Freedom Portfolio, which has extended its lead over the S&P 21% to 12% (and is beating the TR version as well, 21% to 15%). It's been a good 2020 so far. -Paul
[2020-01-13 14:04:39] - paul: yep. who knows, maybe 2020 is the year we both lose to the market. ~a
[2020-01-13 14:04:38] - a: Thanks for the suggestions. I was going to ask the bank, but wasn't sure if there were some general laws that might apply that people know about. -Paul
[2020-01-13 14:04:07] - a: My portfolio is up 8.9% (!) right now.... and I'm in third. But at least I am beating you.
-Paul[2020-01-13 13:37:14] - i'm not sure if it's a waste of time for you or not, but i've been using https://law.lis.virginia.gov/ a lot for biking related laws. it might also be worth your time to ask a cpa or a lawyer or something. ~a
[2020-01-13 13:35:33] - like, i'd specifically ask the bank. but it probably would be good to know the virginia laws on the matter. ~a
[2020-01-13 13:35:00] - "what happens?" i don't know. but i wouldn't make any assumptions. ~a
[2020-01-13 13:33:42] - yeah, i don't care about the lead. i'll make it back. or not.
~a[2020-01-13 13:28:44] - a: I'm certainly game for a $20 bet between you and I. Wasn't sure if you wanted to considering the lead I am staked to. -Paul
[2020-01-13 13:28:24] - a: Why are you assuming our executor is male? Sexist much? So if we don't specify that anybody gets access to our safety deposit box and we both die.... what happens? Does the bank just throw out our stuff once our accounts are closed and we can no longer pay for the box? -Paul
[2020-01-13 13:03:37] - paul: i assume you've confirmed that you want to stake $20 for the 2020 challenge. you didn't specifically say whether you were in or out. ~a
[2020-01-13 12:36:32] - paul: i did some googling, and i was just on random webpages so take this with a grain of salt: i wouldn't blindly assume your executor has access to a safety deposit box unless the document that gives him access isn't also in the box? ~a
[2020-01-13 12:35:07] - no deal. ~a
[2020-01-13 10:28:34] - a: According to your spreadsheet, I just took the lead over you in the 2019 portfolio so I'll take my money back now.
-Paul[2020-01-13 10:08:51] - Anybody here have a safety deposit box and/or know what happens to it when you die? I'm assuming there is a pretty standard practice to allow your executor or whatever to access the contents, right? It doesn't just get sealed forever or something.... -Paul
[2020-01-10 11:40:20] - a: My guesses are (in no particular order): (A) Inertia - We've been involved there for so long that we feel like we need to continue to be. (B) Israel - We feel like we need to defend one of our staunchest allies. (C) Terrorism - We feel like if we leave it would become a breeding ground for terrorism. -Paul
[2020-01-10 10:57:48] - paul: any guesses? i only have guesses. i'd like to attribute it to stupidity. but there's other things. fracking is dangerous and bad for the environment, but probably less dangerous and bad for than environment than a nuclear war with iran. fracking doesn't produce the same kind of oil. link. ~a
[2020-01-10 09:22:57] - But with the advent of fracking, the United States has become a pretty big producer and we're far less dependent on the Middle East than before. So why are we dealing with all of the headaches of the Middle East (questionable allies in Saudi Arabia, constant squabbles with Iran, occasional wars with Iraq, etc) still? -Paul
[2020-01-10 09:21:26] - I had a thought while driving in to work this morning. What is the strategic objective for the United States to be so involved in the Middle East now? Previously, you might have said oil, because so much came from there that local unrest could disrupt the global economy. -Paul
[2020-01-09 17:45:21] - mig: unintended consequences? ~a
[2020-01-09 17:44:13] - https://twitter.com/petebuttigieg/status/1215349135991287809?s=21 and obviously its Trump’s fault /eyeroll. - mig
[2020-01-09 13:12:57] - a: Yeah, sounds like it's gone from total guess to informed suspicion? -Paul
[2020-01-09 13:12:10] - that's what i heard tuesday (though on tuesday it was a total guess). ~a
[2020-01-09 13:11:12] - https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/09/politics/is-iran-ukraine-plane/index.html Looks like Iran might've accidentally shot down that Ukrainian flight. -Paul
[2020-01-09 10:42:11] - a:
"What are you doing wrong?" -Paul[2020-01-09 10:41:46] - paul: aw man, mine is down. only at 401k this morning. ~a
[2020-01-09 10:41:19] - https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1215285845336502272 How is your 409k doing? -Paul
[2020-01-09 10:25:10] - https://xkcd.com/1827/ Stumbled upon this xkcd today and thought it was great. -Paul
[2020-01-09 10:07:57] - Daniel: I guess to me the "ends" (ie, if there is a wave of terrorism or if Iran backs off) has little to do with justifying the "means". Unless this was one of those crazy "24" situations where we needed to take this guy out immediately before some imminent terrorist attack somewhere (which might've been the case), then this seems pretty dubious to me. -Paul
[2020-01-09 10:06:11] - Paul: Yeah. Thats why I think I wouldn't have done it. I think if we can "get away with it" and it leads to Iran backing off certain things then maybe it could be judged "worth it"? But if we have a wave of terrorism here in the US or if someone ends up getting nuked then it will definitely not have been "worth it". -Daniel
[2020-01-09 10:04:43] - Daniel: I can make a case for it in my head too. The thing that screws everything up is putting myself in Iran's shoes. What if they blew up one of our top generals in Canada's airport? Pretty clearly a naked act of war, right? -Paul
[2020-01-09 10:03:28] - I don't think I would have done it as it seems basically an act of war to me. However I can kind of make a case for it in my head. I think it will be something that gets judged better by history once we know how Iran responds to it. -Daniel
[2020-01-09 10:02:14] - a: I went back and forth some on the soleimani issue. One it seems like its definitely not ok to delibrately kill a uniformed person affiliated with a country. On the other hand though if we never take action against Iran does it allow them to think we won't respond to their various activities in the region? -Daniel
[2020-01-09 10:00:40] - a: Been an incredible 2020 for the Freedom Portfolio so far. It's up over 6.5% in something like 5 full trading days. -Paul
[2020-01-09 09:03:56] - a: Yeah, I don't know. I think they bought Citrrus at one point, which was based in Reston, so maybe those people are getting transferred there? -Paul
[2020-01-08 23:25:31] - Gah stupid autocorrect. "yext". ~a
[2020-01-08 23:24:52] - paul: scroll down to text. i guess somebody wanted to move back to be closer to their family? ~a
[2020-01-08 14:54:45] - a: I'm guessing the only connection is that it's a crashed plane from Iran.... and maybe there are some conspiracies swirling around. -Paul
[2020-01-08 13:43:43] - paul: yeah i didn't know about it either. to be clear, though, that has nothing to do with Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, right? ~a
[2020-01-08 13:24:37] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655 TIL about the incident with Iran Air Flight 655. -Paul
[2020-01-08 09:53:05] - a: Hard to say with the information we have now, but it certainly seems like an assassination to try to distract attention away from impeachment and that it should've been cleared with Congress. Of course, that could all change if additional information comes out. -Paul
[2020-01-08 09:51:27] - a: anyways it was a reckless move to be sure. I have to admit I was a little nervous about going into DC this weekend. - mig
[2020-01-08 09:44:30] - assuming of course nothing else happen (I know big assumption) - mig
[2020-01-08 09:43:51] - a: Well "retaliated". Reportedly there were no casualties and there's speculation that the missiles were deliberately not targeting personnel or anything material. Given all that, the retaliation seems a pretty symbolic and face-saving action. - mig
[2020-01-07 20:01:39] - i guess my question was timely. iran has retaliated. for fun, (please) answer my question with and without taking this specific retaliation into account. ~a
[2020-01-07 17:24:50] - any thoughts on the killing of qasem soleimani on friday? ~a
[2020-01-07 12:54:45] - audrey pays for hulu plus . . . so with netflix, and amazon prime, and npr, i'm not sure where i would consume a political ad. on the internet i guess? ~a
[2020-01-07 12:24:29] - I saw my first ad of the cycle two days ago. It was for Steyer. -- Xpovos
[2020-01-07 10:57:59] - paul: only 17%? hah, i laugh at you. i'll stake 20usd. anybody who doesn't put down money can't win. winner receives 100%. settled however. ~a
[2020-01-07 10:51:35] - a: Geez, TLRA is already up 17% this year. So.... are we doing a bet for the 2020 Fantasy Investing season?
-Paul[2020-01-07 10:18:25] - Daniel: Oh, sorry, you already had Bloomberg included in your statement. Missed that. -Paul
[2020-01-07 10:18:02] - Daniel: Oh, I've seen a ton of ads for Bloomberg lately (also Steyer). Not sure I recall seeing many for any other candidates. -Paul
[2020-01-07 10:12:29] - Also I think its just him and Steyer (is that even right?) who are running ads currently. I don't think I've seen very many ads for Bernie / Warren / anyone else. I do live in TX though so maybe just aren't spending for here. -Daniel
[2020-01-04 20:47:20] - mig: Assuming the race is ~80% name recognition at this point, then, no. Bloomberg's performance on that metric should not be surprising. -- Xpovos
[2020-01-04 12:10:57] - https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/476689-bloomberg-rises-to-third-place-alongside-warren-in-national-poll
[2020-01-04 12:09:55] - is there a reason i shouldn’t be surprised Bloomberg is doing well in the dem race? - mig
[2020-01-03 14:08:52] - a: By trying to penalize favored methods of transportation and subsidizing the methods people don't like. -Paul
[2020-01-03 14:08:24] - a: I don't necessarily have a position on parking costs. I have a position on city planners trying to force people to use stuff that they prefer versus what the people prefer. -Paul
[2020-01-03 13:22:25] - paul: so you do think higher parking in cities is good or bad? because you're arguing that it's good here, but before you were saying that it was city planners stupidly "forcing" people to use public transit . . . something that you also consider to be bad? ~a
[2020-01-03 12:54:10] - a: This particular article, though, seemed to be implying that city governments were trying to use parking fees to encourage people to use public transit. -Paul
[2020-01-03 12:53:28] - a: Well, I've never understood why people want to live in cities anyway, so if higher parking makes people realize it is stupid to live in the city, so much the better.
-Paul[2020-01-03 12:34:18] - free parking would definitely make driving worse, so maybe i should be for it. but "free parking" seems as anti-capitalist as "free real estate" (or "free roads") does. ~a
[2020-01-03 12:32:07] - markdown i guess? if the "mark" is the free market's price
~a[2020-01-03 12:31:42] - non-residents see a similarly ridiculous (but smaller) markup. ~a
[2020-01-03 12:30:34] - paul: in dc, private garages (free market?) typically charge 100x what the government does for residents. private garages will charge like $300 per month, and residents pay about $3 per month. ~a
[2020-01-03 12:25:56] - a: "they'd be MUCH higher than they are today if we did" How do you figure? What exactly is a free market in parking prices? Aren't we typically looking at rates set by city governments? -Paul
[2020-01-03 12:25:01] - a: I think it's going to be hard super hard to anticipate exactly how things are going to look 10 years from now or however far in the future we're talking where self driving cars are prominent in cities. I mean, if no cars are parking then can't we get rid of parking lots? -Paul
[2020-01-03 12:24:18] - paul: how would you suggest we attempt to lessen rush-hour gridlock? if parking was free everywhere, rush-hour gridlock would be worse, right? i'm a little surprised you don't think the free market should set parking prices. they'd be MUCH higher than they are today if we did. ~a
[2020-01-03 12:23:48] - a: I'm kinda getting a little fed up with the idea that all us car drivers are evil selfish people and if we could only just be reasonable and use public transportation or ride bikes or whatever the newest super-inconvenient-but-popular-with-city-planners method is then everybody would be so much happer. -Paul
[2020-01-03 12:21:32] - a: Maybe that says something, like, I dunno, people don't like public transportation? -Paul
[2020-01-03 12:21:15] - a: "Parking prices are what get people out of their cars and on to public transit, but autonomous vehicles have no need to park at all. They can get around paying for parking by cruising," Heh, if city planners keep coming up with more and different ways to try to force people to do public transportation and people keep finding ways around it... -Paul
[2020-01-03 12:02:50] - paul: self driving cars will solve all of our transportation issues ~a
[2020-01-03 10:55:05] - yeah. this is so oddly-specific though. intentionally getting into a war with iran to get re-elected as president of the united states. does it get more specific than that? i feel like i need to start a twitter account so i can get re-elected president of the united states. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:53:29] - It's incredible how much he has tweeted even before he was president. -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:53:08] - a: I think we discussed this before. There are old Trump tweets for pretty much EVERY stupid thing he does. -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:52:29] - a: Nah, no need for you to look into it unless it strikes your fancy. I'll try checking at some point. -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:49:33] - this is the first thing i thought of this morning. is it still "projection" if you do it in reverse? ~a
[2020-01-03 10:39:47] - paul: i don't think we established that, no. three years ago i took one look at the api and decided not to try. i could look again if you'd like. "adjusted close" is one really nice/easy way of handling this (and it's more correct), and i don't think google finance supports adjusted close. someone trying to do the same thing a couple of months ago (with a lot of upvotes). ~a
[2020-01-03 10:30:07] - a: Okay, and we established there's no easy way of automating the tracking of dividends here, right? -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:29:06] - yeah. it's more . . . that i'm coming to the realization that i might (some day) have to start calling him david. the other "david" in my life (who used to have a very different name), was very serious about how he wanted to be called "david". ~a
[2020-01-03 10:27:57] - a: I'm happy to change any and all names on there. Oddly enough, Dewey, Gurkie and I all recently recorded a podcast where I asked point blank what to refer to them as and those were the answers given ("Gurkie" and "David") so that's what I went with there. -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:27:05] - 4th suggestion: you're eventually going to need a place to put dividends, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:26:36] - i mean, i haven't looked them over, but i trust you. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:24:49] - a: Okay, I think I hard-coded all of Daniel and Matt's starting prices to "price" on "12/31/2019" (except for VTI, which I am calculating using the same method as the other stocks). If you think that looks right, I can go ahead and hard-code ALL the starting values. -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:23:53] - 3rd suggestion: who is "david"? i noticed you put "gurkie" and not "gurukirn". i guess he did sign his email "david". ugh, are we going to start calling him that? you know what is super annoying, my parents have a friend who i knew growing up, and he changed his name (recently) to "david". fuck. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:22:53] - yeah, ok, so i still think using the "price" for december 31st on funds fits with that. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:22:24] - a: It is different. I went back to the rules that I laid out a year ago and it said this: "the first day of scoring will be January 2nd and the starting price for each ticker will be set by the price at market open on that day" so I am trying to replicate that, even though I think it hurts my stocks a bit. -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:20:34] - i guess you're using open instead of previous close, which is fine, but i guess that is slightly different. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:20:16] - sort of. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:20:06] - basically, i'm only suggesting you do what you would have seen if you had looked up for where a ticker symbol was on midnight of january 1st. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:18:33] - i mean, it's not a "mutual fund", so use the "stocks" rule for that. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:18:11] - also, fyi, "VTI" is not a fund. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:17:25] - paul: no. don't touch stocks, what you have for them is fine. only change the date on funds. everything else is fine. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:16:39] - a: I saw a tweet about AMD this morning that said something like, "Congrats! If you bought AMD in 2000 then your position is officially back in the black today."
-Paul[2020-01-03 10:15:12] - a: And then hard-code those values instead of looking them up all of the time? -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:14:55] - a: So, you are saying to use the "price" (which I think for historical data is market close) for Dec 31st for all of the positions instead of "open" for Jan 2nd for stocks and "price" for Jan 2nd for funds? -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:10:26] - you might want to also figure out of anybody is putting money down. for instance, after today, i'm wondering if i should be putting money on this
~a[2020-01-03 10:09:05] - paul: for the "open" price, you might want to use a hard-coded number. (the technical reason for this is that googlefinance's search functions fail like 5% of the time. to do that you can use control-c then control-shift-v. control-shift-v will paste *only* the values, not the equations). but yeah, for mutual funds i'd suggest using the december 31st price or else you'd be cutting out days of data. ~a
[2020-01-03 10:04:32] - you can use the "price" for december 30th. i think that would be more in-line with the spirit of the "score". ~a
[2020-01-03 10:04:04] - a: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N_Ac-TNLkKZiv7Jxeg04SchRKgB60KntbhAPCmeLEOk/edit?usp=sharing Any suggestions on improvements? -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:03:58] - mutual funds don't have an "open" or a "close" or a "bid" or "ask". they just have a single (once per day usually) "price". ~a
[2020-01-03 10:03:14] - a: So I guess I'll just use "price" and hope it's good enough. -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:03:04] - but more to the point, it's not that it's a "vanguard" fund, it's that it's a mutual fund. for instance, "vt" or "vti" will have all of the same info as "aapl". ~a
[2020-01-03 10:03:01] - a: Yeah, I think that's what I am going to have to do too. Basically, I am using "open" and specifying a date "2020-01-02" to grab the starting price for each position (since it was defined as the price at market open on the 2nd). But I'm getting an ugly "#N/A" for those for the various mutual funds, and I am guessing it's because they don't update as often or something? -Paul
[2020-01-03 10:01:40] - i used "price" for the other challenges. =if($B4<>"",IfError(googlefinance($B4,"price"), "-"),"") ~a
[2020-01-03 09:42:30] - a: Do you know if the google finance api doesn't have priceopen data for vanguard funds? Do I just use the "price" attribute instead? -Paul
[2020-01-02 11:24:54] - i did! thanks, paul. ~a
[2020-01-02 08:58:33] - a: Did you get it? -Paul
[2019-12-31 19:36:53] - paul: texted to you (ends in vwFhE) ~a
[2019-12-31 14:50:39] - a: Thanks! Where should I send your 2019 winnings? -Paul
[2019-12-31 14:08:58] - paul: i emailed you my five. ~a
[2019-12-31 13:05:00] - "Seems like too many variables to try to keep track of" aint that the truth. which is why i often write simulators (or use a spreadsheet) to try out various situations. "taxes on investment returns" are usually really small: especially if you wait until after retirement to sell! i figure my federal tax-rate in retirement is going to be low on my taxable gains unless something crazy happens (4%-ish if you fold in the cost basis). ~a
[2019-12-31 13:03:17] - helocs are typically variable rate . . . i didn't know that, but i guess i'm not surprised. good to know. variable rate loans seem so scary to me, but i've never done a detailed analysis on them. ~a
[2019-12-31 11:58:50] - a: Although I do like the idea of trying to take advantage of low interest rates to try to lever up somehow. -Paul
[2019-12-31 11:58:27] - a: Yeah, good point about inflation risk. Also, apparently HELOCs are typically variable rate? And then taxes on investment returns needs to be taken into account. Seems like too many variables to try to keep track of. -Paul
[2019-12-31 11:47:18] - paul: i think the crux of the difference is interest rates: if you can get a margin interest rate of less than inflation, or less than a CD rate, maybe it makes sense? i dunno. i think typically (but not always) heloc rates are lower because they're backed by your equity. ~a
[2019-12-31 11:44:11] - paul: something hardly anybody talks about is *hedging* against inflation. it's why i think holding a mortgage (or heloc) *might* make sense even in retirement. if inflation is really bad, but the market is doing average, people with low-interest-rate mortgages (mortgage rate < market gains + inflation) are really winning. ~a
[2019-12-31 11:43:14] - paul: not really. it's much better than investing on margin. but it's . . . close-ish? ~a
[2019-12-31 11:42:47] - a: Because in some ways, that seems like investing on margin. -Paul
[2019-12-31 11:42:27] - a: No, it's fine. You actually answered my second question, which was going to be what you guys think of the idea of taking out a HELOC loan (looks like around 4% rate) in order to effectively invest the money in the market and try to earn more than 4%. -Paul
[2019-12-31 11:41:29] - right. ~a
[2019-12-31 11:41:24] - a: I mean, it's all kinda weird since money is fungible. -Paul
[2019-12-31 11:41:19] - paul: yeah, understood. in that respect i can't answer your questions, sorry. i don't know the details. ~a
[2019-12-31 11:40:52] - a: Yeah, it's a home improvement, but I kinda sorta might have already written the check, so if I was to do this the money I get from the HELOC would technically not be going to pay for the panels but would instead be directly invested to replace cash that I was going to invest otherwise. -Paul
[2019-12-31 11:38:35] - paul: 3. solar panels are a home improvement, right? i mean, this is almost literally what this is for (though whether its good or bad is still kinda up to debate). ~a
[2019-12-31 11:38:11] - paul: 1. taxable events can probably tip the scales even more in favor of an heloc if you didn't literally have the money in "cash". iow, if you chose to pay for home improvement "cash" but your cash was in vtsax then to sell the vtsax would mean an extra tax burden this year. 2. if the market goes down you're not any worse off *compared* to someone with a new mortgage: just re-check your new liability to income ratio, or whatever. ~a
[2019-12-31 11:33:28] - paul: i was having the same thought earlier this morning. i feel like . . . if you were going to spend the money anyways (like, the heloc didn't change your mind on whether to spend the money or not), then heloc makes a ton of sense and is similar to buying on margin, but is also different in a few seemingly minor but significant ways (one of them is clearly better /j). ~a
[2019-12-31 11:08:41] - a: Does that count as buying stocks on margin?
-Paul[2019-12-31 11:08:30] - a: Interesting you mention buying stocks on margin. The idea would be to use a HELOC to finance the purchase of solar panels. We can pay with cash now, but I am wondering if it makes sense, assuming the rates are low enough, to take out a HELOC and instead invest the cash in hopes of getting a higher return than paying for the HELOC. -Paul
[2019-12-31 10:57:17] - no idea. i'm curious what you'd use it for though, if not home improvement. (buying stocks on margin is a generally discouraged practice and i know i saw you arguing against upro) ~a
[2019-12-31 10:45:12] - Anybody here familiar with HELOCs? Do they always have to be used for home improvement or can they be used for anything? -Paul
[2019-12-31 10:17:31] - Daniel: And sure, this is just one situation and we have little idea how often stuff like this can or does happen, this is a pretty perfect example of how an armed citizen probably saved a dozen lives or something. How many people could this person have killed had they not been stopped in six seconds? -Paul
[2019-12-31 10:15:47] - Daniel: I saw plenty of horrified reactions from people about the idea of arming teachers to prevent school shootings or mockery from people regarding the idea that a gun could ever reasonably be used in self defense. -Paul
[2019-12-31 10:14:33] - Daniel: "I don't want to put words in anyones mouth but I don't think anyone has argued that situations like this aren't possible or anything" Yeah, and I guess I wonder exactly what people's position is on this, because it seems like in society in general (not necessarily here on the board), the idea of "arming X to prevent shootings" is scoffed at. -Paul
[2019-12-30 18:06:47] - Paul: Just that less guns would hopefully lead to less gun deaths. But I know we've gone through it a few times (true for several things at this point
). I think currently my position of revolvers and shotguns would still allow for this good case as the good guys only needed one bullet to stop this. Revolvers would have given them 6! -Daniel[2019-12-30 18:05:26] - Paul: I don't think the Dallas shooting changes much in my overall position on gun issues. I do agree that its basically a best case scenario for an attempted mass shooting. Over in six seconds is pretty much going to be the bar I think. I don't want to put words in anyones mouth but I don't think anyone has argued that situations like this aren't possible or anything. -Daniel
[2019-12-30 11:40:48] - (the *weird* part about this book is that it only lists institutional investors. instead of everybody. also weird that it specifically says which investor is making the bid or ask. (fyi) mpid stands for "market participant identifier"). ~a
[2019-12-30 11:40:26] - paul: we were talking about the "book" a few weeks ago. here is an example of a real book. under "level 2" you can see a list of institutional investors and their bids and asks. ~a
[2019-12-30 11:20:04] - yeah sorry. ~a
[2019-12-30 11:19:44] - a: Should the self driving car one be resolved in 2025? -Paul
[2019-12-30 11:18:18] - i also changed the title. jesus, i get handsy with peoples documents, don't i? ~a
[2019-12-30 11:17:41] - i also added a new bet, and a new column, and reordered them. sorry, you can undo that if you want . . . sometimes i get crazy. ~a
[2019-12-30 11:17:26] - https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/30/us/texas-church-shooting-monday/index.html Obviously it's only one instance, but I'm curious if this changes anybody's minds here about the feasibility of defensive gun uses. It seems inarguable that without the armed guard there would've been more fatalities here. -Paul
[2019-12-30 11:11:04] - a: Cool, thanks. -Paul
[2019-12-30 10:50:12] - paul: i have now. you can check the history, but it's pretty minor stuff. 1. stock market challenge was $20, not $25. 2. i added a link of a definition of "level" that was in use at the time of the bet. 3. we had added "available for sale in virginia" to the text. ~a
[2019-12-30 09:35:21] - a: Did you change anything on the wagers doc that I shared with you? I'm curious what I had gotten wrong. -Paul
[2019-12-29 16:41:52] - not that i can think of, but it's something i've never done before, so there will likely be something we haven't considered. ~a
[2019-12-29 15:52:36] - a: Can you think of any danger to creating a publicly viewable google sheet to track the 2020 fantasy investing season? -Paul
[2019-12-29 15:51:59] - Sure, no need to have money. It doesn't help that we created the scoring system after the draft. I also mostly drafted for nominees and didn't realize how many debates there were going to be. -Paul
[2019-12-29 03:21:55] - I definitely see that as a more "for fun" operation. But I also, comically, misunderstood the value of the debates in the scoring system. I was picking for nominees and maybe cabinet members. I feel OK with how things have gone, as a result. -- Xpovos
[2019-12-24 17:23:39] - paul: we don't have any money on the presidential draft. (specifically). we can change that though. did you want to put money on the presidential draft? i'm fine with it. $5? basically, what happened was there was a lot of . . . weirdness . . . with the draft procedures, and we basically screwed xpovos. twice. i think that's why we didn't put any money on it at the time. ~a
[2019-12-24 10:04:30] - aXpovos: I shared a google doc with you two which lists the three wagers that I know I have with you guys right now. Please look it over and let me know if I have anything wrong OR if I am missing anything (presidential draft?). -Paul
[2019-12-24 09:22:50] - Do we have any money on the presidential draft? Related: We comically screwed up the scoring in that it's WAY more important to have been invited to a ton of debates vs being the actual nominee. Who knew there were going to be so many debates? -Paul
[2019-12-23 15:26:44] - openbazaar sure, but it's concentrated around listing and selling items (like amazon or ebay). it wouldn't work for betting. ~a
[2019-12-23 15:25:57] - a: That's why I randomly shouted out "block chain", because it seems like an ideal use. Now there just needs to be an easy to use app which taps into that. OpenBazaar you say? -Paul
[2019-12-23 15:24:54] - the cool thing about that kind of escrow contract, is it can exist entirely on the bitcoin (or whatever) chain. i.e. it can be entirely decentralized. it's what openbazaar uses. ~a
[2019-12-23 15:22:57] - yeah, that's already a thing i think. you're describing a simple escrow contract (one that allows for *optional* moderation/arbitration). ~a
[2019-12-23 15:21:26] - a: I'm telling you, there is a market for a betting app which allows people to make and accept and track bets with other people. Block chain! -Paul
[2019-12-23 15:20:56] - a: Is one of them the stock market challenge / fantasy investing? I now have another long term one with Andrew as well. -Paul
[2019-12-23 14:35:58] - no, mriou wasn't for bets, it was for debts. i'm not sure where we should record bets, but i have an open bet with andrew and two open bets with you. ~a
[2019-12-23 14:34:42] - the databases for my software back then was very rudimentary. it only stored the total. it was $25 total. it also recorded that you "accepted" the two debts. ~a
[2019-12-23 14:31:20] - a: Hmmm, weird. No dollar amount on the second one? -Paul
[2019-12-23 14:30:12] - yeah, it didn't record the year. so . . . may 1st and may 25th, who knows . . . 2001 probably? ~a
[2019-12-23 14:29:03] - a: Wait, I owe something? Buttons? Why is this the first I am hearing of this? What about our self-driving car bet? -Paul
[2019-12-23 14:28:06] - paul, nope. i brought it back at one point, but then let it die again. aaron was using wiki.aporter.org for a while. after we got venmo and bits, it all seemed much less necessary. it's just so much easier to close debts now compared to back in the day. i still have a record of the remaining iou datas if you want them . . . paul owes aparna $25 for buttons (may 1st), and some other undescribed debt (may 25th). ~a
[2019-12-23 14:06:07] - Does mr. iou exist as a thing to track bets anymore? -Paul
[2019-12-23 13:07:26] - i do like a few gary glitter songs. hmmm. ~a
[2019-12-23 11:40:15] - a: Eh, I dunno. I still separate them. I still enjoy Gary Glitter songs. I don't really have many relevant examples to draw upon. I mean, if the Russo Brothers murdered somebody does that mean I can't like Endgame anymore? Seems odd to me. -Paul
[2019-12-23 10:53:12] - paul: i agree with that. what about once it goes past politics and becomes . . . breaking the law? like the chris brown and lostprophets example that daniel came up with? you agree that's a different situation, right? patronizing hitler's art is kinda lame. ~a
[2019-12-22 23:25:00] - a: That it's okay to disagree with an artist's politics and still like their work. -Paul
[2019-12-20 14:19:46] - paul: what are your actual thoughts on this. i'm not sure how to respond to your sarcasm without just adding more sarcasm. ~a
[2019-12-20 12:09:39] - Paul: Chris Brown for one. Personally there were some songs by a band (lostprophets) whose lead singer was arrested for "conspiracy to engage in sexual activity with a one-year-old girl" and I definitely removed those songs from my playlists. Seemed wrong to give money to a guy to pay his defense bills on that. -Daniel
[2019-12-20 12:07:57] - Paul: I think its a tricky thing sometimes and not so black and white always to separate the art from the artist. They are different things but clearly still related. I don't think Harry Potter is ruined because of Rowling but I think there are other examples where its questionable. -Daniel
[2019-12-20 09:36:55] - https://reason.com/2019/12/19/j-k-rowling-transgender-tweet-harry-potter-terf/ JK Rowling has been canceled, everybody. It's no longer permissible to enjoy Harry Potter. -Paul
[2019-12-19 13:31:15] - ah yes. i'll be there tonight. ~a
[2019-12-19 13:31:01] - a: Oh, sorry, tonight.
I know what day it is. -Paul[2019-12-19 13:15:04] - paul: i wasn't invited. ~a
prev <-> next