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[2020-05-30 13:41:14] - It's kind of interesting when there's a conservative protes (like the recent lockdown protest)t, coverage will almost always go to the few extreme people who have dumb signs or say dumb things, and the protest is dubbed "dangerous". Then a liberal protest results in looting and pillaging and actual violence, those same people will wax poetic that it's some righteous shit or something. - mig
[2020-05-30 13:37:25] - paul: almost certainly. They know that likely, they aren't going to get caught, and even if they do, they'll find sympathy from useful idiots. Half my fb feed today is people excusing away the violence. - mig
[2020-05-30 13:33:19] - Whenever there are large scale protests, I always wonder if some small segment of troublemakers (largely unrelated to the larger peaceful group and their movement) take advantage to cause mischief under cover of the larger movement. -Paul
[2020-05-30 05:47:58] - mig: I think its more about anger than reason. Which doesn't make it a good idea but its hard for me to say I don't understand. -Daniel
[2020-05-30 05:15:30] - https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/29/us/cnn-center-vandalized-protest-atlanta-destroyed/index.html I'm trying to make some sense of this, but am a bit lost. CNN, who had their crew arrested in MN, is the "enemy." ok, guys. - mig
[2020-05-29 20:53:04] - you have to wait six months for your money. ~a
[2020-05-29 20:52:38] - paul: yeah . . . ~a
[2020-05-29 20:12:20] - a: S&P 500 at 3044.
-Paul[2020-05-29 19:47:50] - xpovos: eo 61+62, beaches are open-ish, NOVA is is in phase1, stay-at-home has ended. phase zero ended yesterday, for the whole state. still social distancing, and limiting groups to 10, and masks, but i feel like the state is now "open", imo. ~a
[2020-05-29 16:03:07] - a: I fully admit that I don't have a complete understanding of it either. It could be expansive enough to cover both. The part that seems important to me is that it shields companies like FB and Twitter from being held liable for stuff posted to their platforms. That seems really important to me to be able to maintain a relatively free and open internet. -Paul
[2020-05-29 15:59:25] - paul: understood. and maybe i had a misunderstanding. here's from the link i posted earlier: "Section 230, by design and reinforced by several decades of case law, empowers platforms and services to remove harmful, dangerous, and illegal content based on their terms of service, regardless of who posted the content or their motivations for doing so". so, not what i said. but still, they're "empowered" instead of "required"? ~a
[2020-05-29 15:54:46] - a: As I understand it, section 230 does kinda the opposite and protects FB/Twitter from content they host, not holds them accountable. -Paul
[2020-05-29 15:54:22] - paul: i don't think i have an opinion. ~a
[2020-05-29 15:53:54] - a: Do you agree with their TOS? -Paul
[2020-05-29 15:52:26] - mig: sec 230? i'll admit i don't know any of the details, but sec 230 is a law. ~a
[2020-05-29 15:51:36] - a: by law? - mig
[2020-05-29 15:09:36] - paul: well, actually both. so i guess i only half-disagree with you? they're both required to police data according to their TOS. now their TOS is allowed to be insanely loose, but there you go. if they want to say "no misleading information about voting" or "no glorifying violence" they are required to police that. ~a
[2020-05-29 14:58:20] - a: Do you side with Jack or Mark on this? -Paul
[2020-05-29 04:37:21] - "social media should not fact check posts" says child molester mark zuckerberg. i'm glad we're finally saying it. mark zuckerburg is a child molester. ~a
[2020-05-28 14:19:40] - right? ~a
[2020-05-28 14:19:24] - a: Huh, it's almost as if executive orders where large powers are invested in a single person with little oversight are maybe are not the best idea. -Paul
[2020-05-28 14:03:46] - paul: my wife's company already has a response ~a
[2020-05-28 13:46:19] - paul: "yes, this is silly". it's turning into an executive order (this is the draft, it'll be published soon). sooo . . . it's hard to call this merely a "threat". per usual, he's doubling down on being slighted. ~a
[2020-05-27 20:18:58] - no launch today
My kids were excited to watch too. -Daniel[2020-05-27 18:11:09] - i think the launch is supposed to be at 16:33 (eastern). ~a
[2020-05-27 18:08:37] - if you want to watch live (as of 14:00, they're still in pre-flight stuff) ~a
[2020-05-27 18:02:39] - spacex launch today is pretty badass. 40% chance of launch, because of weather? not sure if i understood that correctly or not. ~a
[2020-05-27 17:20:19] - a: If he were halfway competent, I feel like he probably COULD be a dictator and have packed the Supreme Court or jailed reporters or whatever else but he's just not good at getting things done. I think previous Presidents have been worse because of that. Trump aims for 10 and ends up with 2. Previous Presidents aim for 5 and get 4... -Paul
[2020-05-27 17:18:46] - a: 100% agree it is dangerous, but where I disagree is that I don't think it works 100% of the time. I actually think it only works like 20% of the time (during his presidency, at least). Most of his outright crazy stuff he ends up walking back or doesn't end up happening. This is why I actually think in some ways Trump is less dangerous than he cold be: he's bad at getting things done. -Paul
[2020-05-27 17:12:53] - paul: "yes, this is silly" i'll, use a different word. dangerous. we can ignore all the bullshit that comes out of trumps mouth if we want, but for real it's very damaging. he uses threats to get what he wants, and for trump it works like 100% of the time. we'll heal, probably. but maybe not right away. regardless, superpowers aren't ever superpowers forever. ~a
[2020-05-27 17:10:03] - a: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/27/politics/donald-trump-twitter-threat-regulate/index.html Oh, I see why you phrased it that way now. Yes, this is silly, as is most things Trump threatens. -Paul
[2020-05-27 16:58:33] - a: Should Twitter label his tweets false? I think they should never have gotten into this game and shouldn't label anything false. Now that they have... I guess they kinda have to? Or at least back off labeling other stuff as false. Doesn't seem like the President should get special treatment. -Paul
[2020-05-27 16:58:32] - ugh, i think i misread your post. it does answer my question, nm. ~a
[2020-05-27 16:57:48] - it does not. ~a
[2020-05-27 16:57:32] - a: That feels like a weirdly worded question to me. Do I think the government should prevent Twitter from labeling his stuff as false? No. Does that answer your question? -Paul
[2020-05-27 15:42:49] - ok, uhhh. how about, do you think trump should prevent twitter from labeling his tweets as false? (i hear you're against twitter doing what they did, but that's not really the much bigger issue, imo). ~a
[2020-05-27 15:02:11] - huh, ok. i agree then. ~a
[2020-05-27 15:00:26] - a: I think mail-in voting takes on added urgency now with social distancing and everything. I'm torn, because personally I would rather less people vote because I think there are a ton of uninformed people out there that vote. At the same time, I do think it's the government's job to make voting relatively easy to anybody who wants to can do it. -Paul
[2020-05-27 14:55:15] - hmm, i was going to bring up mail-in voting again, then realized (after searching) that we talked about it last only two months ago. paul says "making voting easier isn't a huge priority for me" adrian says his usual "just because its easy for you to vote doesn't mean it's easy for everyone". we all agree 2 basis-points for fraud is an acceptable line, but we disagree if it's an important enough problem to solve. ~a
[2020-05-27 14:43:50] - a: https://paulvsthemarket.com/selling-twitter/ Yeah, it was for a lot of reasons, but the most relevant one for now is that I hated that they seemed to be getting into the business of censoring tweets. It felt like a doomed and ultimately no-win scenario. "Twitter has gotten increasingly involved in the messy area of policing the content on their platform." -Paul
[2020-05-27 14:36:35] - oh you sold? i didn't know that. i never bought twtr, but often consider it. ~a
[2020-05-27 14:36:02] - a: A lot of the tech stocks that have been hitting all time highs recently are getting slammed today (and yesterday), so it might be a sector wide thing. I don't follow twitter much anymore since I sold. -Paul
[2020-05-27 14:35:44] - his response reeks of regulation=good, and whining, and doubles-down on this misconception that mail-in ballots are somehow associated with theft. ~a
[2020-05-27 14:31:34] - paul: what are your thoughts on twtr being -4% today? do you think it is at all related to the fact-check they put on trump's tweets? or is that just a coincidence? ~a
[2020-05-27 14:31:01] - a: I think I am consistent here. It's the same mindset for why I pick a handful of stocks instead of all of them (indexing, although technically I do index as well) or just putting it all into one stock. -Paul
[2020-05-27 14:26:52] - a: Diversification? There's a middle ground between having everything in one country and investing in every country on the planet. -Paul
[2020-05-27 14:22:45] - paul: huh? why settle for unfree when you can have free? (i mean, i don't actually feel this way at all, but i feel like you were making a similar argument like 2 minutes ago. basically, that you should rid yourself of all things that aren't 100% optimal instead of having a balanced approach?) ~a
[2020-05-27 14:19:57] - a: That's why they aren't 50% of my portfolio? I mean, it's like a report card, right? The US scores great in some areas and acceptable in others, so it gets the biggest share. Brazil and India and Indonesia score great in some and terrible in others, hence why it gets smaller shares. France and Russia score low in most places, hence why I want little exposure. -Paul
[2020-05-27 14:13:44] - "brazil and india and indonesia". their markets are the least-free places on earth. good luck with brazil, india, and indonesia. maybe their markets will get more freedoms but probably not. ~a
[2020-05-27 14:11:34] - a: Hmmm, I'm not so sure 18% in Japan is a big selling point to me either. I'm not saying VTIAX is horrible, just that I would prefer less France and Japan and Taiwan and more Brazil and India and Indonesia. -Paul
[2020-05-27 14:10:23] - a: Um... I see what you're saying to a degree (essentially that past performance doesn't mean future results), but I guess I would say that I think past performance is a good indicator. Yeah, there's no guarantee that the US will continue to have the most innovative companies, but if I had to bet on any country, I'll go with the US. -Paul
[2020-05-27 14:09:08] - paul: vtiax is 6% france. 6% switzerland, 18% japan, 11% china, 4% taiwan. it's like (guessing) 2/3rds "green" on that heritage map. i think you underestimate vtiax. you saw it had a portion of europe and totally got the wrong idea. ~a
[2020-05-27 13:57:34] - paul: for #4, and #5, i'll say "who cares"? (i mean, obviously, lots of people care, but) that's mostly about past performance. things can change. it'll happen slowly (imo) but speculative markets can move fast. ~a
[2020-05-27 13:57:18] - a: Sure, I don't doubt that "parts" apply too and parts might even beat out the US. Unfortunately, I suspect those parts are a small part of the European economy. I'm guessing that Vanguard's European exposure has a lot more weight in places like France than I would like. -paul
[2020-05-27 13:55:51] - paul: for #1, #2, and #3, the heritage foundation seems to agree with you, but they also think that parts of europe apply too . . . heritage heatmap. parts of europe (ireland and switzerland?) even beat out the united states. ~a
[2020-05-27 13:47:47] - Shopify giveth, and Shopify taketh away (the last two days). -Paul
[2020-05-27 13:46:16] - a: (1) Probably the best "investing environment" from the perspective of regulations and transparency and accounting of public companies. (2) Probably generally still one of the free-est markets in the world (3) Relatively stable government (4) Still home to most of the most innovative companies in the world (5) and seems to be #1 in producing new ones as well. -Paul
[2020-05-27 03:12:13] - "for a bunch of reasons, I still think it's one of the best countries to invest in" what are those reasons? ~a
[2020-05-27 01:54:57] - a: I'm saying I want a lot in the US (for a bunch of reasons, I still think it's one of the best countries to invest in), but also a fair bit invested in international countries which look like they have the trajectory of a growing middle class and growing economy because of their demographics. I'm fine skipping places like Europe and Russia. -Paul
[2020-05-27 01:52:40] - a: The rest is maybe 10% in Canada (hello Shopify) and single digits in places like China, Brazil, and Singapore, in addition to whatever is in those Vanguard funds. -Paul
[2020-05-27 01:50:40] - a: "the reason i don't want 100% of my portfolio in brazil is the same reason i don't want 0% of my portfolio in the US. basically, you've been arguing for the 0% US strategy" I am not advocating anything like that at all. I'm advocating close to 0% Europe and that's about it. If I had to guess, over 50% of my retirement portfolio is based in the US. -Paul
[2020-05-26 22:28:31] - paul: because with growth you get insane amounts of volatility. it might not trend upwards in the long term, either. the reason i don't want 100% of my portfolio in brazil is the same reason i don't want 0% of my portfolio in the US. basically, you've been arguing for the 0% US strategy, and i think that's craziness. it's vemax vs vtiax, right? although i might prefer brazil over france, i'd always prefer some of both. ~a
[2020-05-26 18:10:26] - a: Especially when those developed countries with shrinking populations also tend to be paired with governments with high regulations. -Paul
[2020-05-26 18:10:00] - a: I guess I would ask why would you want stagnant when you could just have growth? Isn't growth objectively better? The pros and cons argument is more compelling, but I guess I largely see a lot more pros to developing countries with growing middle classes versus developed countries with shrinking populations. -Paul
[2020-05-26 14:14:47] - "why settle for sustaining when you can have growing?" why settle for growing when you can have both? sustaining vs growing is a false dichotomy, both have pros and cons, so i'd opt for both 100% of the time. ~a
[2020-05-26 14:13:47] - Ugh, finger slip. -paul
[2020-05-26 14:13:36] - a: "but, i'd want to invest in countries with growing OR sustaining middle class populations that are becoming OR are consumers" I would quibble about whether Europe has sustaining middle class populations considering their birth rates, but I would also say "why settle for sustaining when you can have growing?
[2020-05-24 19:13:20] - a: Okay, cool. I'll try to do some general calculations using that. Thanks. I can say that roughly 39% of my individual stocks portfolio is invested in companies headquartered outside of the US. Also, companies like Amazon and Tesla made plenty of money outside the US as well. -Paul
[2020-05-24 15:03:34] - "If I want to invest overseas, I want countries with growing middle class populations that should become consumers" i mean, feel free to do this, of course. but, i'd want to invest in countries with growing OR sustaining middle class populations that are becoming OR are consumers. iow, europe among other places. i.e. the same logic i use for investing in the united states. ~a
[2020-05-24 02:44:12] - paul: i used that website, to calculate my overall %us, %international, %bond. ~a
[2020-05-24 02:42:53] - paul: arkk (85% us, 14% int, 0% bond, link), tmfc (100% us, 0% int, 0% bond, link). ~a
[2020-05-23 22:32:13] - a: Oof, it's hard to calculate because it's not as easy as I was hoping to find the country breakdown for things like ARKK, TMFC, and so forth. -Paul
[2020-05-23 22:24:09] - a: You've got me thinking, though. I wonder what percentage of my retirement funds total are in the US.... I'm going to assume VTSAX is considered 100% US? -Paul
[2020-05-23 22:22:52] - a: Hmmm. Is it? What percentage do you think should be in Europe? If I want to invest overseas, I want countries with growing middle class populations that should become consumers. Europe doesn't fit that profile. -Paul
[2020-05-23 21:07:11] - aaron: Cool! The gameplay looked great. New Tetris was a lot of fun even I was never as good at it as you guys. -- Xpovos
[2020-05-23 11:06:47] - a: those fractals are gorgeous! yeah a lot of fractal generators give you an option for specifying a palette, my favorite fractal zooms on youtube always have really cool colorful (sometimes oscillating) palettes - aaron
[2020-05-23 00:44:10] - xpovos: https://twitter.com/poobslag/status/1262121352867315712 it's a puzzle game which i'm aiming for late 2021. it's sort of like The New Tetris where you had to make those 4x4 blocks, except you're making mostly 3x3 blocks, way more of them, and faster - aaron
[2020-05-22 22:59:16] - paul: it's odd that a person who has (probably) 50% of their portfolio in the united states, would conclude that their (probably) 10% in europe is too much. ~a
[2020-05-22 21:14:13] - aaron: Your perlin noise rainbow is nifty. Can you disclose what game you're working on it for? -- Xpovos
[2020-05-22 19:34:42] - Daniel: Thanks for the suggestions. I'm not looking for YOLO with these funds. This is supposed to be more conservative in case my YOLO money goes boom. -Paul
[2020-05-22 19:27:46] - mig: https://twitter.com/jemelehill If you want to see some horrible takes on what Biden said, Jemele Hill is happy to oblige.
-Paul[2020-05-22 18:36:11] - Sorry that second part back to @Paul for a more exciting pick. -Daniel
[2020-05-22 18:35:47] - a: They have so many flavors of the same thing. But yeah some form of what VTSMX / VTSAX. Or go to /r/wallstreetbets and pick out a fun yolo position. -Daniel
[2020-05-22 18:33:52] - daniel: ah . . . never mind (on the "too poor" part, not vtsmx is closed part) they reduced the minimum of vtsax to the be the same as the minimum of vtsmx. so since they were the "same", they closed vtsmx. ~a
[2020-05-22 18:31:46] - daniel: ha uhhh, vtsmx is closed. looks like if you're too poor for vtsax, they point you at the etf. ~a
[2020-05-22 16:39:08] - Paul: I'm pretty lazy so I would just go with VTSMX if you are really wanting to just ignore the international part. I don't know if thats exciting enough for you. For excitement: https://www.coinbase.com/price/nano -Daniel
[2020-05-22 15:25:48] - mig: It's not surprising, though. Biden has a history of making statements like this and the Democratic Party has always (at least during my lifetime) felt like they are entitled to the black vote (with fair reason considering the insane percentage of it that they get most elections). -Paul
[2020-05-22 15:24:01] - a: Too much exposure to Europe (or, not enough elsewhere). So you think I need more international still? -Paul
[2020-05-22 15:11:18] - paul: what's absolutely striking to me is the actual statement. It's not just if you choose Trump, if you even having an internal debate between Biden and Trump your blackness (or hispanic-ness i assume) is called into question. - mig
[2020-05-22 14:59:36] - no pedestrians have died in dc since the lock-down started? that's pretty crazy. (it could be at least partially a coincidence, but i have to feel like it's also that there are so few cars on the road). three people have died on the roads in dc (proper) since february, and they've all been in cars. ~a
[2020-05-22 14:49:34] - paul: vfwaxÂ? you'll probably have to tell us specifically what about vtiax you don't like. also consider our bias: daniel and i are heavily invested, directly or indirectly, in vtiax. (not sure if you or daniel have noticed this, but the target-date funds, among others, invest in the institutional versions of vtsax, vtiax, vbtlx, etc). ~a
[2020-05-22 14:45:56] - Wondering if I have any holes in terms of diversification that I should address. -Paul
[2020-05-22 14:42:49] - aaron has a twitter feed? ~a
[2020-05-22 14:42:08] - aaron: i've always liked that rainbow pallet. i used a similar pallet here: https://aporter.org/pics/sc-pics/ . in that class, everybody else had boring single-color pallets and mine just seemed so much more pleasing (imo). ~a
[2020-05-22 14:40:19] - aDaniel: I'm looking for suggestions for what to move my VTIAX (Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares) money into since I have soured on the prospects for that fund. Any suggestions? For that "portfolio", about 24% is in VEMAX, 19% is in VTSAX, and another 33% is in funds that skew towards tech stocks (also probably skews US). -Paul
[2020-05-22 14:30:39] - aaron: I saw that on twitter.
-Paul[2020-05-22 14:30:21] - mig: I didn't think anything could match 2016 in terms of horribleness of the major party candidates. Biden is shaping up to be almost as bad as Hillary (in much different ways). -Paul
[2020-05-22 14:13:11] - https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/22/joe-biden-breakfast-club-interview-274490 I'm beginning to wonder if this 2020 contest will actually be a speed run of who can nuke their campaign the fastest. - mig
[2020-05-22 04:05:28] - https://www.shadertoy.com/view/wsjBzR i've made some custom shaders for a video game i'm working on. this one is fun to look at - aaron
[2020-05-21 21:23:12] - paul: yes, i've already seen various places start to estimate the infections today. what's more, testing in increasing exponentially (daily testing is increasing linearly). we'll be fine by december on the testing front, imo. ~a
[2020-05-21 19:58:30] - a: Yeah, I still think we're undercounting cases a lot more than we are deaths, but I'll admit I'm probably going to lose this one. Do you think we're going to get to a point where we as a country are doing enough random testing so we can estimate the number of cases confidently? -Paul
[2020-05-21 19:32:52] - paul: sure, we're undercounting the cases (and that will be fixed, imo), but i think we're undercounting the deaths too! (and that will be fixed too, imo). if you ignore the cases who haven't died *yet* but will, we're seeing like 6% (95836/1609921 in the united states or 332000/5156000 in the world). ~a
[2020-05-21 19:27:08] - paul: 1.25% is correct. imo, you'll lose if we don't get a vaccine (or major change in treatment) before december. ~a
[2020-05-21 19:22:54] - a: I thought you had to use long term to wipe out long term and vice versa before you can do whatever you want. -Paul
[2020-05-21 19:22:32] - a: I'm worried about the coronavirus CFR being over 1.25% (or whatever our threshold was). -Paul
[2020-05-21 19:21:07] - ok, so, everybody is worried about coronavirus deaths being over-counted (see "plandemic" for evidence of this). and, i'm here looking at the huge up-tick in non-cororonavirus deaths points at a uuuge (double digit percentage) under-counting of coronavirus deaths. wtf is up with people. ~a
[2020-05-21 19:17:55] - uhhh, you can? you just have to do it in the right order. ~a
[2020-05-21 19:17:02] - a: True, it could've been worse. I guess I was hoping that the losses could be applied to either long term or short term regardless of the type of loss. -Paul
[2020-05-21 18:29:12] - i actually see this as way less complicated than it could have been: if they didn't let you cancel out non-matching terms, then in the situation of having a loss-carryover . . . now you'd have to keep two balances carried over. yikes that would suck way more. ~a
[2020-05-21 18:13:59] - a: Cool, thanks. I was worried that it was that complicated.
-Paul[2020-05-21 17:38:29] - paul: (also, the answer to your first question is "yes" in case that wasn't clear) ~a
[2020-05-21 17:38:02] - paul: IIRC (IANACPA), you use the terms that match, until you run out of matching-terms for that year, then you use non-matching terms. in other words, yes, you can cancel out non-matching terms, (but you have to do it in the correct order for the answer to be exactly correct). ~a
[2020-05-21 14:38:25] - Is there such a thing as short term and long term capital losses? In other words, how does it work to have capital losses canceling out capital gains? Does the term need to match? -Paul
[2020-05-20 22:44:46] - yah. ~a
[2020-05-20 22:44:36] - aDaniel: Are you two going to be online tomorrow night for more SC2? -Paul
[2020-05-20 22:44:24] - Wish I was getting 21 bitcoins instead! -Paul
[2020-05-20 22:44:15] - I keep getting text spam from the Florida Democratic party urging me to vote (note: I actually don't think it is spam, but somebody put my number down somewhere). -Paul
[2020-05-20 21:15:31] - they (spam texts, and robo-calls) seem to come in waves. i'll get like one per day, then i'll get one per year, and it seems to cycle between the two. ~a
[2020-05-20 21:04:57] - yeah, that's dope. it's like 200k usd. ~a
[2020-05-20 21:04:43] - I have mostly avoided spam texts till apparently now. Hopefully these dont' become more common. -Daniel
[2020-05-20 21:04:16] - Just got a text that someone sent me 21 bitcoins. I'm 100% confident that is real and not spam. Lucky day for me! -Daniel
[2020-05-20 19:58:45] - a: Now catch Dewey.
-Paul[2020-05-20 19:51:44] - jeeze, i caught up with daniel and matt. i didn't think that would happen so quickly. ~a
[2020-05-20 19:50:38] - a: I'm so disappointed that I picked TLRA for my 5th stock in the fantasy investing season. I can't remember for sure, but I think SE and LVGO were two other contenders. -Paul
[2020-05-20 19:50:03] - a: I've never shorted anything either. -Paul
[2020-05-20 19:46:41] - i guess you're pointing to how this started, where i said that they were the same amount of risk. i guess i'll walk that back some. ~a
[2020-05-20 19:45:36] - right. i did say that i've never shorted anything, right?
~a[2020-05-20 19:45:11] - a: Uh huh, and in the (probably more likely) scenario of NOT hyper inflation and NOT hyper deflation.... going long is less risky.
-Paul[2020-05-20 19:33:39] - it's like symmetrical. ~a
[2020-05-20 19:33:25] - paul: yes, but with hyperinflation your losses are limited.
~a[2020-05-20 19:32:34] - a: Okay... I think I understand? That if there was a crazy deflationary spiral that shorting might work better than going long? But couldn't there be hyperinflation for the opposite? -Paul
[2020-05-20 19:08:27] - paul: when i short-sold aapl in 2020, i got $300. well now in 2030, i can buy 300 houses. think of it like buying usd, then selling usd later. ~a
[2020-05-20 19:07:52] - paul: "I don't know what currency has to do with anything" it's the crux of my crazy argument. for the sake of argument, please ignore the unlikeliness of my scenario (i already admitted that currencies are typically stable). i short aapl. the price of aapl doesn't change in real terms (it's worth about the same as a cellphone), but there's a huge deflationary spiral over a decade, where i can now buy a house with $1. ~a
[2020-05-20 18:58:11] - a: I don't know what currency has to do with anything. When I short a stock, I can only make as much money as the stock is worth. When I go long, it can go up 4x, 5x, 10x, and more. That is regardless of currency. -Paul
[2020-05-20 18:39:26] - the chance of usd becoming worth infinity (shares of aapl) is negligible. the chance of aapl being worth infinity (usd) is also negligible. ~a
[2020-05-20 18:39:07] - paul: assuming deflation is limited is just as reasonable as assuming the price of a stock going up is limited. i'll admit that equities are typically more volatile than currencies, but both of them are unlimited by how much they can change in worth. ~a
[2020-05-20 18:06:34] - a: Okay, so maybe there are ways around it, but it's still more steps than I have to take going long AND it doesn't change the other end of the equation where the upside is limited vs the unlimited upside of going long. -Paul
[2020-05-20 16:58:50] - someone is PISSED that a democrat, female, secretary of state just handed 16 electoral votes in a SWING state to biden. ~a
[2020-05-20 16:32:30] - from a "market" perspective, there's nothing magic about usd. ~a
[2020-05-20 16:31:49] - paul: i like to think of it like equities and cash (and shorts and longs) are just two sides of the same coin. both the equity and the cash can move around at will. it especially helps if you think of it like when people trade currencies: one currency and another currency are like two sides of the same coin. shorting one currency is just like longing another one. ~a
[2020-05-20 16:26:45] - paul: still no. you're allowed to set stops on a short, just like in your long positions. i've never shorted anything (hell, i've never even used a stop, either). but i've read about it, and the process is the same/similar as on a long. ~a
[2020-05-20 16:11:42] - a: Sure, but who only has the exact amount of money that they are shorting a stock in their brokerage? If I wanted to short with just a small part of my portfolio, then my risk is a lot greater. -Paul
[2020-05-20 15:03:49] - they do discuss "interact" in the paper some. so it could be they addressed both things? i dunno, it was pretty hard for me to read. ~a
[2020-05-20 15:02:40] - it's about the "block" feature, not the mute feature. trump argued what you did, that users can still access the shit even after they have been blocked? the court disagreed. maybe knowing about "incognito" mode (or even just logging out, or whatever) is not a requirement? i dunno i didn't read it all. ~a
[2020-05-20 14:28:27] - wait, going through this again, is this dispute about just viewing his account or actually being able to interact with the twitter account? - mig
[2020-05-20 14:24:33] - In which case, the default middle ground should be for the twitter account to just mute annoying, abusive people. - mig
[2020-05-20 14:22:36] - a: mixed? Just because you are blocked doesn't mean you can't see official government announcements since you can view them incognito, Though the executive has the option to mute. - mig
[2020-05-20 13:45:24] - any thoughts on whether the executive should be allowed to block people on twitter? ~a
[2020-05-20 04:35:10] - in practice, no. if I deposit $1,000 worth of cash or aapl in an account the most I can lose from a short or long is $1,000. you will be forced to close a position if you don't have cash in your account to cover it. ~a
[2020-05-20 01:36:33] - a: Oooh, I disagree. If I invest $1,000 in a company, the most I can lose is $1,000 and the most I can gain is.... millions? If I short 100 shares of a company that has a price of $10, the most I can gain is $1,000 and the most I can lose is a lot more than that. -Paul
[2020-05-19 18:59:18] - "nearly unlimited risk" in practice you will be forced to close a position if you don't have cash in your account to cover it. so, it's not more risky than a long position. it's . . . differently risky (because you have to consider the cash in your account carefully instead of the non-cash in your account carefully), but not more risky? ~a
[2020-05-19 18:46:49] - a: " find me a case where the market cap of a current company is too high, and we'll both short it" I dunno, GNC? Exxon, if you want to be bold? Shorting has nearly unlimited risk, though. I would much rather do the opposite and pick companies going up to go long on. Less risk that way. -paul
[2020-05-19 18:38:48] - daniel: looks like my "guess" was right then? #1 and #2 are both, like, what i said. ~a
[2020-05-19 18:36:36] - Paul: https://mymoneywizard.com/vtiax-vs-vfwax/ I honestly think I only have VFWPX because its in an old 401k and I think that is the international fund that was offered at the time. -Daniel
[2020-05-19 18:22:23] - but once the investors realized that those companies were shit, they started selling. and the market cap went down. find me a case where the market cap of a current company is too high, and we'll both short it. ~a
[2020-05-19 18:21:34] - a: Radio shack, Circuit City, Montgomery Ward, Toys R Us, etc. -Paul
[2020-05-19 18:21:07] - a: Yeah, but how many have died? I'm pretty sure it's a lot more. -Paul
[2020-05-19 18:15:43] - paul: i know you admitted there are exceptions, but i'll argue (without data) that the 50% number is probably bullshit. amd, aapl, and tons companies were down-and-out at one time and are on top of the world now. ~a
[2020-05-19 18:14:50] - a: It's up 43% this quarter so far, which is bonkers. -Paul
[2020-05-19 18:14:07] - (guessing) i think it's like the difference between vtsax and vfiax . . . i think one is large and mid cap, and the other is large, mid, and small cap? ~a
[2020-05-19 18:13:49] - a: Also, as we were talking the Freedom Portfolio just passed the 50% gain mark from inception in October of 2018. That's a roughly 26% CAGR or a 2% gain a month. -Paul
[2020-05-19 18:12:39] - a: "what i will argue is that market cap is almost always better than i am at predicting the future of an asset" I disagree, and I think the stock market challenge backs me up. But we can disagree on this point.
-Paul[2020-05-19 18:11:38] - a: Sure, and I think more often than not, that is the case. Yes, there are certainly exceptions, but I think >50% of the time when there is a dying business that everybody knows is dying.... it ends up going lower over time. -Paul
[2020-05-19 18:09:53] - anyways, i'm never going to argue that market cap is always right. what i will argue is that market cap is almost always better than i am at predicting the future of an asset. there are exceptions . . . and to be completely honest, you could be right about europe. i'm just not so sure. ~a
[2020-05-19 18:08:50] - Daniel: Oooh, I haven't seen VFWPX. How does it differ from VTIAX? I get that one is "ex-US", but not sure what that means in this context? They seem to have similar top holdings. -Paul
[2020-05-19 18:07:44] - paul: it went down from there because the chance of them "coming back" or "turning it around" or changing their business model went down. ~a
[2020-05-19 18:06:52] - a: And like 10 years ago I think most people would say JCP is a dead business walking.... and it still went down from there even though most people knew it. -Paul
[2020-05-19 18:06:05] - a: Known by me... and most other people? I actually can't see their stock chart on yahoo finance anymore, but I'm pretty sure what I would see for the last 20 years or so. -Paul
[2020-05-19 17:58:56] - hah, saw this on reddit: "100% of americans support president trump taking hydroxychloroquine"
~a[2020-05-19 17:48:30] - paul: jcp also holds billions in real estate. ~a
[2020-05-19 17:45:48] - Paul: Looks like 25% in international for me. VFWPX and VTIAX are the ones i have directly. Inside of target date funds there are a few more: VGTSX / VTIBX -Daniel
[2020-05-19 17:44:22] - "known crappy" / "known good". known by whom? are you sure these are even true? the earnings for jcp looks bad, but if you look at the history of their earnings, it's been up and down. the EBITDA for jcp is pretty high. i'm not sure if the market cap for jcp is incorrect. ~a
[2020-05-19 17:37:33] - a: Like, I get that information is often baked into stock prices already, but that doesn't mean that known crappy businesses can't keep going down or known good businesses can't keep going up. -Paul
[2020-05-19 17:35:22] - a: Not to be glib, but I don't care? We've known JC Penney and Sears were dying businesses for years and it has been reflected in falling market caps.... it still hasn't made them good investments. -Paul
[2020-05-19 17:32:36] - paul: "falling birth rates...regulations that make it hard to run wildly successful businesses" how much of this is already represented by the market cap? won't this information and any foreseeable future changes to this information be in the market cap already? ~a
[2020-05-19 17:29:04] - a: How will I feel if I am wrong? I guess bad, but not sure how I would determine if I was wrong. I mean, I have been "wrong" so far about investing outside of the US at all, but I am not deterred yet. -Paul
[2020-05-19 17:28:13] - a: Because I think Europe has the bad combination of being part of the "civilized" world (in that they have falling birth rates and therefore a non-growing middle-class) and also strangled by a bunch of regulations that make it hard to run wildly successful businesses. -Paul
[2020-05-19 17:23:52] - paul: more specifically though, "my brain" is very non-specific. why do you believe europe will under-perform the rest of the world? and how will you feel if you're wrong? ~a
[2020-05-19 17:21:18] - paul: yeah, i hear you. it's the standard active vs passive debate. what you're doing right now is active(ish). ~a
[2020-05-19 17:20:21] - a: Want? Maybe 5-10%? I'm not super bullish on Europe providing superior returns going forward. How do I decide? With my brain.
I get your point, that I am kinda "stock picking" with index funds, but what can I say? I think some areas of the world are going to do better than others and I don't really want equal-ish weighting or whatever VTIAX uses. -Paul[2020-05-19 17:07:29] - "a lot more exposure to Europe than I want" well i'll pull the daniel card here. how much exposure to europe do you "want"? how do you decide that amount of exposure? most people go by market cap, so vtiax might have the "correct" exposure?
~a[2020-05-19 16:01:22] - a: So, I think I (currently) have the same ones, but VTIAX has a lot more exposure to Europe than I want so I was thinking of shifting more to the emerging markets for Africa / Latin America / Southeast Asia... -Paul
[2020-05-19 15:23:21] - paul: vtiax (24% of liquid portfolio) and vemax (1% of liquid portfolio) ~a
[2020-05-19 14:36:38] - aDaniel: Do you have investments in Vanguard international / emerging markets funds? If so, do you mind sharing which ones? -Paul
[2020-05-19 14:22:34] - a: Also I think it has a generic at this point so its not as big a thing drug wise. -Daniel
[2020-05-19 13:33:15] - paul: "the president’s holdings in sanofi are valued at up to $1500" ugh, never mind. apparently he has $2k worth of the stock via a mutual fund. groan. ~a
[2020-05-19 02:14:46] - paul: "He said he doesn’t own stock in the company that produces the drug" wasn't this shown to be false? ~a
[2020-05-18 20:40:18] - a: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/trump-says-he-takes-hydroxychloroquine-to-prevent-coronavirus-infection.html See? I knew it would work.
-Paul[2020-05-18 16:12:51] - a: Well, when something falls that much it doesn't take much for it to triple.
-Paul[2020-05-18 16:08:03] - it's like a sign of total disaster, or, an inability to correctly price the assets. ~a
[2020-05-18 16:06:52] - imo tripling after . . . tenthing (?!) isn't impressive. it's just weird. ~a
[2020-05-18 14:58:16] - a: Understood, but tripling in like 2 days is impressive. I'm looking forward to that for JMIA.
-Paul[2020-05-18 14:56:29] - to be clear, i never re-bought, so i only have a few shares. ~a
[2020-05-18 14:56:03] - hah, yes. i'm not cheering today (or friday), at all though. i'm still down (even as of like 3 months ago). ~a
[2020-05-18 14:55:29] - a: You still own ACB?
-Paul[2020-05-18 14:47:21] - https://paulvsthemarket.com/fantasy-investing-2020-may-update/ -Paul
[2020-05-17 13:48:31] - without knowing your two rates, i wouldn't be able to tell you what market increase you'd be required to beat. ~a
[2020-05-17 13:47:41] - paul: the 30-year vs 15-year problem is a lot harder to math out. lots of geometric equations. i've done them before, and with the two rates i was looking at, i still prefered the 30-year *assuming* i was investing the difference. ~a
[2020-05-17 13:46:15] - (though i guess if you're counting the mortgage *deduction* as a negative number, what you said is fine). ~a
[2020-05-17 13:42:32] - paul: "plus all the capital gains and mortgage deductions" you got this part (half) wrong. it's hard to think about, i had to sit and think for a while: the mortgage deductions only help you if you DON'T pay your mortgage down early. so that part is reversed what you think. ~a
[2020-05-17 13:36:43] - a: But if we get a 30 year, I have a hard time justifying paying off debt at what would be around 3% when I am almost certain investing will beat that. -Paul
[2020-05-17 13:34:54] - a: Here's the chicken or the egg problem I am confronted with: We want to refinance. We both would like to pay off the house within ~15 years. I want to go with a 15 year mortgage for the lower rate. Gurkie prefers a 30 year so we have flexibility to stop paying extra if our circumstances change (very reasonable). -Paul
[2020-05-17 13:31:33] - a: Got it. You were a step ahead of me. So if I stuffed the cash under my mattress, then paying the $500 a month is better, but presumably I can beat my mortgage rate investing it (plus all the capital gains and mortgage deductions). -Paul
[2020-05-17 02:31:49] - (though i deny your premise that either of those are good plans. ill always argue against paying off your mortgage early if investing is the alternative). ~a
[2020-05-17 02:31:46] - yes. (more or less) the break even point is whether the market beats your apr (plus a little for your long term capital gains, minus a little for the mortgage tax deduction) before you exit the market. this assumes you pay no prepayment penalties. ~a
[2020-05-16 20:56:10] - mig: Taibbi has been on the warpath for a while now. He's lived through real civil liberies violations, so he takes it seriously. -- Xpovos
[2020-05-16 19:44:35] - xpovos: https://taibbi.substack.com/p/democrats-have-abandoned-civil-liberties seems that realization is coming to some folks. - mig
[2020-05-16 17:50:17] - https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/1261714482864312322?s=19 Amash is out. That was quick. -Paul
[2020-05-16 13:10:23] - a: Let's say I have a mortgage that I would like to pay off early and also minimize the amount of interest that I pay on the loan. Is there any difference between paying an extra $500 a month for 10 years vs investing that $500 a month and just paying off the last $60,000 in one lump sum after 10 years? -Paul
[2020-05-15 23:26:27] - mig: yeah sorry i forgot for a second that the vice president was part of the senate. ~a
[2020-05-15 20:48:57] - a: he would still get a tie breaking vote. - mig
[2020-05-15 18:36:17] - a: For me, a further reminder that neither party is interested in helping me or protecting my rights. I'm not their constituency. -- Xpovos
[2020-05-15 15:11:26] - i guess not really. heh. stupid senate. ~a
[2020-05-15 15:11:08] - the bill would have had one fewer vote. maybe. ~a
[2020-05-15 14:26:05] - a: image that one of those senators could have been Vice President. - mig
[2020-05-15 05:52:05] - thanks a lot, virginia democrats. ~a
[2020-05-15 03:25:01] - a: oh i agree, the protests are misguided outlet for frustration. But that frustration is legitimate, and the sneering and moral high horsing from people who are secure in the jobs and able to live comfortably doesn't sit well with me. - mig
[2020-05-15 01:18:42] - paul/daniel/xpovos/mig: the protests themselves have an effect on the spread of the disease. thousands, tens of thousands of people, extra people, may die from infections stemming from the protests. i'm not even sure how you'd know for sure the total count. ~a
[2020-05-14 23:46:53] - silly paul, conservatives aren't really people. - mig
[2020-05-14 11:23:03] - It's almost as if allegiances have been weirdly perverted by political tribalism: Anything seen as minimizing the effects of COVID-19 is seen as a Trump/MAGA position so the left is mobilized against it. -Paul
[2020-05-14 11:21:37] - Daniel: While at the same time the people mocking them tend to be millionaire celebrities and comedians who are probably the least affected. Were it any other situation, I have to imagine they would be getting slammed as "out of touch with their privilege" and "punching down". -Paul
[2020-05-14 11:20:20] - Daniel: Anyway, I'm sure like with most things, it's a mixture of both. By and large, though, I think we can agree that these people probably skew... less fortunate? They're probably getting hit worse than the crowd we hang out with. -Paul
[2020-05-14 00:00:31] - Daniel: They weren't hiring him for his service because 1) They couldn't afford it because they weren't working. 2) They were concerned about his employees contracting CV and/or passing it along to them. 3) They no longer needed the service due to the shutdown 4) All of the above, etc. -- Xpovos
[2020-05-13 23:59:34] - Daniel: There's some truth to that. One of the protestors that I heard an extensive interview with was a decent-sounding guy. But he was working. The problem wasn't that he wasn't allowed to work, necessarily, but that no one was hiring his company to do their service anymore. -- Xpovos
[2020-05-13 23:54:12] - Daniel: I guess so? I would say I've generally heard the opposite (people just wanting to be able to make a living, not those that just want to eat inside a Chipotle or whatever). -Paul
[2020-05-13 23:50:33] - Paul: Maybe I'm just not seeing the right headlines but in general the protesters I've heard/read about that are pro opening are the ones who want to go to an establishment not those that want to work at an establishment. I think if people were protesting and saying I need to work for X, Y, and Z reasons they would be better received. -Daniel
[2020-05-13 23:04:34] - And I personally suspect that there's a decent chance mortgage rates go lower over the next 12 months or so. What would you all do? Refinance now? Or wait and see? Maybe roll closing costs into the mortgage to hedge? -Paul
[2020-05-13 23:02:38] - Barely related: It looks like we have an opportunity to refinance our mortgage to a rate that is more than one percentage point lower than our current rate. At the same time, I am seeing articles like this: https://www.google.com/url?q=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-seen-below-3-134524823.html&sa=D&source=hangouts&ust=1589496966401000&usg=AFQjCNF9MTa -Paul
[2020-05-13 23:01:08] - Seem to be the first in line to berate the protesters for wanting to kill old grandparents just so they can eat at Dennys... or whatever. Not everybody can just comfortably sit at home and watch Netflix. Lots of people out there are really hurting. -Paul
[2020-05-13 23:00:00] - That's what has been disappointing me about the reactions to the protests for opening the economy back up: the lack of understanding and sympathy. The same people who typically seem hyper-aware of privilege in others and advocating for the less well off... -Paul
[2020-05-13 18:27:31] - same. it'll reach us eventually though. even if we keep our jobs indefinitely, the reverberations (large and small) will be felt everywhere. ~a
[2020-05-13 18:26:34] - a: It's incomprehensibly bad. I'm very lucky to be highly insulated. I still have my job and my paycheck, and I live in an area where a lot more people than the national averages still have their jobs and paychecks, so the immediate impact of this downturn is far less profound. -- Xpovos
[2020-05-13 18:13:01] - ouch. this is total-employment published last week, not the usual graph of "initial jobless claims". i imagine this number will keep going up in may and june. heck it might keep going up after we get a vaccine: the economy right now is super fragile in my opinion. ~a
[2020-05-12 20:08:47] - xpovos: https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/05/virginia-coronavirus-update-may-8/ . . . heh, i just noticed that this shop is on my block. love toby's! i can't wait until they open up for real. ~a
[2020-05-12 19:47:32] - Maybe we'll make Daniel/Paul/mig form a three panel judge to adjudicate it.
-- Xpovos[2020-05-12 19:22:50] - https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2020/05/google-play-music-dies-this-year-yt-music-library-imports-begin-today/ Ugh, after Amazon got rid of their similar service, it sounds like I don't have a way to easily store my music online for free anymore... -Paul
[2020-05-12 19:22:09] - xpovos: i hear you. imo if all of the state get to phase 1, that seems like a "revocation" by some definitions. i'll still push though, in that case, if you want. i think we didn't define "end" well. ~a
[2020-05-12 19:21:28] - paul: i agree. inflation isn't tied to the m2. ~a
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