prev <-> next
[2020-07-30 23:43:40] - a: It has been all over the place. No, I sadly did not buy then. I don't really regret it because it I don't think it was an obvious buy at the time. I do kinda wish I had bought some a few months ago. I had been considering it since it was at $9 or so. -Paul
[2020-07-30 20:15:50] - paul: technically up 6x in 4 months, but that feels cherry-picking to me. i'd say it's up 1x over 6m, or +90% ytd, or -30% over 1y.
did you buy 4 months ago? if so, jesus christ, man. ~a[2020-07-30 20:09:30] - Paul: I'm saying something other than police yes that could handle non violent things (like parking meter enforcment for an example where it already exists) and they couldn't arrest you or shoot you but could cite you if needed. -Daniel
[2020-07-30 20:05:37] - paul: i think we would like mediators and/or social workers as an alternative to calling the police on people acting crazy and/or antisocial (in an unsafe or illegal manner). that would be nice. ~a
[2020-07-30 17:39:54] - a: Jumia sneakily up like 6x over the past 4 months or so. -Paul
[2020-07-30 17:33:31] - Daniel: I'm not sure I understand? You are saying we need an alternative to the police for enforcing things like mask laws? -Paul
[2020-07-30 16:32:15] - Paul: Thats somewhat the point though - there isn't an alternative? How might we create such an alternative? By reallocating funds from one instituion (police) to another! Yay! -Daniel
[2020-07-30 16:20:30] - https://reason.com/2020/07/30/d-c-mayor-muriel-bowser-tells-retailers-call-the-cops-on-customers-who-dont-wear-masks/ It's a little hard for me to reconcile this with the idea of "defund the police". Haven't we learned anything from the past few months? Do we really want to call the cops in to deal with irate customers who aren't wearing masks? -Paul
[2020-07-30 13:55:22] - delay the election says trump. delaaay the eleeection. is there no line with this guy? ~a
[2020-07-29 19:07:12] - a:
- aaron[2020-07-29 18:50:41] - Or, TLDR, conservatives wanted him to (and liberals were terrified he might) overturn the legality of abortion, and he was just like, "please don't make me rule on abortion right now..." Which seems like a reasonable thing to want. -Paul
[2020-07-29 18:49:56] - as someone who often plays g4, this scared me a little bit. ~a
[2020-07-29 18:49:29] - Daniel: But after reading it, even the article seemed like it was basically admitting that he just didn't want to make waves and wanted to avoid getting pulled into cases where he thought the SCOTUS might seem too political and that even if he had his way, it's not likely that Trump would've been helped. -Paul
[2020-07-29 18:48:18] - Daniel: Eh, it's entirely possible I am reading too much into it too. It just felt like everything tonally about the article (the black and white photo of him, the "CNN Exclusive", the headline of "Kavanaugh wanted Supreme Court to punt on abortion and Trump subpoenas") makes it seem very ominous as if he had done something wrong... -Paul
[2020-07-29 18:13:21] - Paul: I am kinda busy so was trying to read quickly through the article so its possible I misread / misunderstood part of it. Entirely possible. -Daniel
[2020-07-29 18:12:49] - Paul: If his all just get along means punting on the SC enforcing congressional subpoenas that doesn't seem like getting along really. -Daniel
[2020-07-29 17:48:54] - Like, the content of the article seems to be all about him trying to avoid confrontation and striking a softer tone and just getting along (FTA: "Kavanaugh appears to be trying to halt that pattern with a new message: He just wants to get along.") but the tone seems to be one of, "Look at the nefarious things this bad man is up to". Maybe it's just me. -Paul
[2020-07-29 17:46:12] - Also, I kinda question the statement that "Kavanaugh and other conservatives have long sought to bolster executive power". I don't think there's a clear dividing line between conservative and liberal when it comes to bolstering executive power. -Paul
[2020-07-29 17:43:40] - "That aspect might not have pleased Kavanaugh's core conservative constituency, which wanted the law enforced." I mean, that's an understatement. It sounds like the abortion law was getting struck down unless the SCOTUS intervened to reverse it, so it's hard to see how taking a pass is nefarious in that respect. -Paul
[2020-07-29 17:41:55] - Daniel: Wouldn't lower court rulings stand for Trump turning over his tax documents if the SCOTUS didn't take it up? -Paul
[2020-07-29 17:39:13] - Daniel: "Kavanaugh's plan would have ensured the law [...] would not go into immediate effect" and "While that strategy could have meant the President had to hand over his documents to congressional investigators". -Paul
[2020-07-29 17:15:59] - panned out*
[2020-07-29 17:14:25] - Stalling a ruling on abortion rather than a pro abortion ruling also seems like something good for Trump. I don't get how his things if they had panned wouldn't have helped Trump. -Daniel
[2020-07-29 17:13:41] - So yeah that seems good for Trump? -Daniel
[2020-07-29 17:13:33] - FTA: Kavanaugh and other conservatives have long sought to bolster executive power, and if the high court were to decide that the House subpoena case was too political to resolve, it would dramatically undermine congressional power. Congress' investigative committees would be unable to turn to courts to enforce orders against the President and his people. -Daniel
[2020-07-29 16:58:15] - And that maybe it actually is true he was just trying to avoid having the Supreme Court rule on really politically polarizing topics to help maintain the visual that it is non-partisan. -Paul
[2020-07-29 16:57:24] - https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/politics/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court-abortion-trump-documents/index.html Anybody else find this to be an odd article? The framing makes it seem like Kavanaugh was caught red-handed doing something seedy, but it sounds like avoiding the issues wouldn't have helped Trump... -Paul
[2020-07-29 15:26:43] - a: Because that's what government does. I don't even know if we can blame this one on Trump. Just seems like general government incompetence. -Paul
[2020-07-29 15:15:22] - huh weird. so the us government gave them a huge loan to produce . . . drugs? whyyyyyy. ~a
[2020-07-29 14:59:16] - Situations like that are when I am slightly tempted to be both a day trader and somebody who shorts stocks.
-Paul[2020-07-29 14:52:59] - Two days ago: <$3. Today? Almost hit $50. -Paul
[2020-07-29 14:50:36] - a: Short idea for you: KODK -Paul
[2020-07-29 14:22:19] - a: I might have had a shot at beating Dewey had I picked LVGO! -Paul
[2020-07-29 14:21:50] - a: Looks like a Google Finance API problem, but I will check. I hate MGNI so much. First of all, the ticker has changed twice this year already (merger, then name change). Secondly, I barely chose that underperformer over companies like LVGO and SE.
-Paul[2020-07-29 14:03:59] - paul: looks like you need to fix the new spreadsheet though (the one linked above "s2020"). for me it says "N/A" under your name. ~a
[2020-07-29 14:01:39] - daniel having 50% on his 2019 numbers seems pretty surprising too. right after a recession. ~a
[2020-07-29 13:59:33] - haha, i hadn't. after my 2020 stock market challenge pics, i kinda lost interest
1600% is crazy. and with like much of that time in a recession?! ~a[2020-07-29 13:56:48] - a: Have you looked at the old Stock Market Challenge doc lately? The "17 18 19 w/ overlap" column? How awesome were our picks!? -Paul
[2020-07-29 13:56:04] - a: I feel like, unfortunately, a consistent and principled dedication to freedom of speech is very rare among politicians AND most people. -Paul
[2020-07-29 13:55:09] - mig/paul/daniel: i hear your "apples and oranges comparison" comment. i'll withdraw my "contradictory" statement. its still weird to be pushing both at the same exact time, even probably levying it all on the same organization (FCC), but i'll live, i guess. ~a
[2020-07-29 13:50:58] - That being said, I agree w/ Paul that this is kind of an apples and oranges comparison and they aren't necessarily contradictory. - mig
[2020-07-29 13:49:29] - Just for some clarification, EARN IT is also supported by prominent democrats like Richard Blumenthal and Diane Feinstein. It's weird how some of the worst ideas that go through congress end up being bipartisan. - mig
[2020-07-29 01:59:16] - a: I'm not super familiar with the EARN IT act, but my guess is that their rationale is that political speech shouldn't be policed but other types of speech to protect children needs to be. I don't agree, but that seems like a reasonable-ish distinction, right? -Paul
[2020-07-28 20:35:40] - those deciding what needs to be policed varies from (Trump/Grahms) opinion.
[2020-07-28 20:35:13] - If the EARN IT act is telling social media companies to police their content then there is the danger that those deciding what needs to be policed varies from their opinion. Seems a natural outcome from telling them to police content. -Daniel
[2020-07-28 20:27:10] - daniel: i don't follow, sorry. i think we all agree the government shouldn't be policing speech, what with the first amendment and all. the exceptions (inciting eminent lawless action, libel, slander, child porn, copyright infringement, false advertising, threatening the potus, etc) being what they are. ~a
[2020-07-28 20:07:21] - a: I think this gets to Pauls point that policing speech is dangerous because what graham / trump deem bad and should be taken down might be different than what the person in charge of that decision actually thinks. -Daniel
[2020-07-28 19:56:25] - a: Yeah... I guess the law of large numbers mean the change is likely to moderate. That's fine. I'm not super embarrassed by that bet. It's not nearly as bad as everything I said about the 2020 democratic primary.
-Paul[2020-07-28 19:55:54] - ok, i'll make my own conversation change: the EARN IT act specifically asks social media companies to police everything on their platform including all encrypted communications (in a bad attempt to "protect children"). then trump decides that social media companies shouldn't police him: somehow that's illegal. without getting into "orange man bad" territory, how do lindsey graham (and trump) resolve these contrary views they hold? ~a
[2020-07-28 19:39:02] - paul: you won't win unless some craziness happens: first craziness: cases would have to ALMOST TRIPLE (unlikely). second craziness: deaths would ALSO have to drop down to zero (more unlikley, especially if cases are tripling). here's my math: 151786 / 4466384 / .0125 = 2.7x. ~a
[2020-07-28 19:37:48] - ah shit, that was world. wait, let me do that again. ~a
[2020-07-28 19:37:30] - paul: you won't win unless some craziness happens: first craziness: cases would have to MORE THAN TRIPLE (unlikely). second craziness: deaths would ALSO have to drop down to zero (more unlikely, especially if cases are tripling). here's my math: 660 / 16785 / .0125 = 3.15x. ~a
[2020-07-28 19:31:37] - a: It's just a little weird. The CFR is so drastically different, but I haven't heard any good explanations for why or if anybody is even looking into it much. -Paul
[2020-07-28 19:29:54] - a: Actually, it may not be as hopeless as it seems for our bet. The data I am looking at shows the US CFR seeming to peak at around 6% on May 1st-ish. In the 3 months since then, it has dropped to around 3.4%. If we keep up this rate of new cases... there's still a chance for that to drop a lot more. -Paul
[2020-07-28 19:29:30] - maybe we were able to flatten the curve better. or . . . maybe our curve was going to be flatter because of uncontrollable factors. either way, a flattened curve will change the cfr drastically, i agree. ~a
[2020-07-28 19:24:33] - fifth explanation: environmental factors. think "different mix of who's getting it" combined with where they live and what's in that environment. ~a
[2020-07-28 19:22:57] - a: Did Europe get hit before us? I guess Italy was said to be a few weeks ahead of NYC. That actually sounds like a meaningful difference, if true. Maybe we were able to "flatten the curve" better? -Paul
[2020-07-28 19:19:16] - paul: your second explanation seems the most likely. also i have a fourth explanation: (or just a strong-modification of your second explanation) something changed, in time. ~a
[2020-07-28 19:02:28] - a: I can only think of a few explanations: Faulty testing in Europe. Different mix of who is getting it (maybe older people?). Or we are just better at treating people here. -Paul
[2020-07-28 19:01:22] - a: I am wondering why, according to the data, if you get a confirmed case of Coronavirus in Europe you seem to be much more likely to die than if the same thing happens in the US. -Paul
[2020-07-28 19:00:28] - a: Sure, but the bet wasn't if the CFR was going to get better.... it was if the CFR would end up below a certain number. That should definitely count what happened before. If you think it shouldn't, then I am happy to consider that so I still have a chance in our bet.
-Paul[2020-07-28 18:45:14] - (per capita) ~a
[2020-07-28 18:44:27] - paul: can you define "doing worse"? because if you're looking at infections, or cases, or even (in some cases) deaths, they're all beating us in europe, but also look at the other parts of europe, and new zealand etc. just because some of europe has been hit hard doesn't mean all of europe has. ~a
[2020-07-28 18:42:42] - paul: well just look at our bet for instance. you're def going to lose. and not because the CFR/IFR of today isn't getting better. it doesn't even have to be "done so poorly": again look at our bet . . . it could even be poor testing. ~a
[2020-07-28 18:42:27] - a: I know Sweden tried the whole herd-immunity thing with limited lockdowns, and some countries like Spain and Italy have traditionally been somewhat screwy in terms of responsible governance... but France and the UK and even Germany are also doing worse. -Paul
[2020-07-28 18:41:31] - a: Hmmm, why should it only count the past month or so? I could see them maybe being two different measurements, but I don't see any reason to discount what came before. Even still, though, why would the European countries have done so poorly early versus the US? -Paul
[2020-07-28 18:06:16] - paul: all calculations for CFR/IFR use the entire history of the disease. that's probably what accounts for most of the "5x" you're seeing. CFR/IFR (imo) should be "past month" or "past quarter" or something along those lines. ~a
[2020-07-28 18:04:37] - a: And I guess I'm wondering why that is. Some European countries have CFRs like 5X ours! Is it less testing (they are not finding all the cases and their denominator is artificially low) or... what? I mean, one theory is our health care system is better / more robust, but I imagine that would be a hard sell here. -Paul
[2020-07-28 18:03:01] - a: Yeah, I get that we probably have more infections and that's why we get a bunch of crap (maybe rightfully so), but we still seem to have a really good CFR compared to most other countries it might make sense to compare us to (I think like South Korea is lower but most others are higher). -Paul
[2020-07-28 18:01:44] - a: Uh... well, it's possible for whites to be "over-represented" as publishers, but the consumers of media are literally the entire population, so it's basically impossible for whites to be "over-presented" there. Every group should pretty much be equally represented. -Paul
[2020-07-28 17:40:30] - paul: "you are arguing that almost by definition, the viewing population can't really be over-represented by one race". i don't follow. can you please reword? ~a
[2020-07-28 17:39:45] - paul: we have the most cases (pp) with a few exceptions: qatar and chile are doing worse than we are case-wise. europe's cases (pp) are much much lower than ours. orders of magnitude lower. if you're interested in deaths (pp), though, i'll agree there are a few european countries doing worse than us there. if your CFR is shit, imo it doesn't matter if you have like zero cases? ~a
[2020-07-28 17:33:51] - Completely different topic: I keep hearing how the US is doing so horrible with Coronavirus, but doesn't Europe largely have a higher CFR? Is that accurate? And if so, why do you all think that's the case? -Paul
[2020-07-28 17:19:51] - a: Sure, but also not 100% of publishers are white. I guess you are arguing that almost by definition, the viewing population can't really be over-represented by one race? -Paul
[2020-07-28 16:48:42] - a: Yeah I agree that there are reasons that they should expand their market base. I was just confused by the statement that they wouldn't have similar biases. -Daniel
[2020-07-28 16:45:46] - paul/daniel: in other words, if your material is 100% geared towards white people, and your audience is not 100% white, you're doing something wrong, right? can white producers produce non-white material? yes. and sometimes that material is dumb. ~a
[2020-07-28 16:44:03] - daniel/paul: those biases are fine. but those biases are different. even if we assume 0% of white viewers want to consume non-white material, and your publishers are 100% white, they'll still have a real tendency (because of lack of diversity) to ignore the 50%ish of the united states that isn't white. ~a
[2020-07-28 16:42:13] - I actually think it's weird to assume publishers have this bias but viewers don't. It seems pretty similar to me. What's the difference between those two biases? -Paul
[2020-07-28 16:41:13] - Yeah, what Daniel said.
-Paul[2020-07-28 16:40:45] - If we are going with publishers have bias (conscious or not) I don't think its crazy to assume consumers have similar issues. -Daniel
[2020-07-28 16:35:28] - paul: "I would think the same would hold true for viewers" i would not assume that. why would you assume that? whites have plurality (and barely a majority), but that matters not. what does matter is that non-white writers have (white and) non-white consumers that aren't easily getting their stories to their consumers. ~a
[2020-07-28 16:33:18] - paul: i don't know. i trust npr though.
~a[2020-07-28 16:33:15] - a: I thought the idea was that white publishers are more likely to greenlight (can I say that? that's not racist, yet, right?) "white" media because of familiarity and are subconsciously biased against non-white media. I would think the same would hold true for viewers. -Paul
[2020-07-28 16:32:04] - a: Okay.... but how does that lack of diversity translate into making it more difficult for non-white stories to get exposure? -Paul
[2020-07-28 16:28:10] - trump shared a covid-19 video full of lies and misinformation. twitter just deleted it. (so did facebook). it has been quite the morning. "14 million views in 6 hours. for scale, plandemic got ~8 million in a few days." if anybody finds a link to the video, lmk. i'd like to watch it. ~a
[2020-07-28 16:25:36] - paul: no. but publishers of media do seem to have an issue with lack-of-diversity. ~a
[2020-07-28 16:20:48] - a: But publishers of media only want to publish media that is about them? -Paul
[2020-07-28 16:14:45] - paul: what's more, it's a very simplistic view. consumers of media don't only want to consume media that is about them. ~a
[2020-07-28 16:13:21] - paul: if you wanted to create media to appeal to the widest possible audience, you'd create media that was proportional to the demographics. ~a
[2020-07-28 16:12:43] - a: Sure, but we're still a plurality white, right? If you wanted to create some media to appeal to the widest possible audience, you're still probably aiming for that white demographic, no? -Paul
[2020-07-28 16:09:11] - paul: "predominantly white audience" oh? i think we're decreasingly white. only half of new births are (non-hispanic) white. it's not an american-only problem either. lots of other countries that are decreasingly white have issues with diversity. ~a
[2020-07-28 16:04:49] - http://wethefifth.com/ Also, I think the most recent episode of the Fifth Column (episode 197) is a good one. They touch on the recent Harper's Letter and cancel culture and JK Rowling and Bari Weiss and some other topics as well. I thought it was a good, thoughtful discussion. -Paul
[2020-07-28 15:47:07] - a: Sure, I don't disagree with that. Let me ask you something different, though: What about our predominantly white audience in this country? Is that a problem? In other words, white people aren't as interested in stories by/about non-white people. -Paul
[2020-07-28 15:28:56] - paul: npr implied (or stated?) that its hard for non-white stories to get representation in a world of only-white producers/publishers. ~a
[2020-07-28 13:59:45] - a: "i trust npr though" I guess I don't know what NPR is saying that I disagree with? That most publishers are white? -Paul
[2020-07-28 13:27:31] - sent. ~a
[2020-07-28 01:06:00] - i can do either day. who's emailing mark/dewey? honestly they're the ones with the limited work schedules. ~a
[2020-07-28 00:43:38] - I think I can do Thursday if that works for everybody else. Tuesday is also possible. -Paul
[2020-07-27 21:38:12] - paul: sc2 this week! ~a
[2020-07-27 21:37:58] - Paul: SC2 this week? -Daniel
[2020-07-27 17:59:27] - well i agree it should be easier. and amazon is helping with that (maybe. or making it worse, who knows). but whether it is easier . . . i wouldn't have enough info to know that. i trust npr though. ~a
[2020-07-27 17:57:24] - a: Although I guess I do think it is pretty easy now. -Paul
[2020-07-27 17:57:00] - a: Sorry, that it should be easier. More specifically, that is is important for it to become easier. -Paul
[2020-07-27 17:40:23] - mig: i don't get it. is that a response to the last title? "the american president is not looking out for the american people" because i'm not sure i understand that connection either. ~a
[2020-07-27 17:38:26] - "it is just flat out easier" you're arguing that it is easier? or that it should be easier? it's not clear from your statement. ~a
[2020-07-27 17:38:21] - title: DONALD J. TRUMP HAS A TINY PENIS. I'm sure the gestapo will come for me any moment now. - mig
[2020-07-27 17:37:06] - a: I would argue it is less important that publishers are 100% white versus 50% white (or whatever the "right" ratio is) and that it is just flat out easier for anybody to publish anything without having to appeal to some small subset of the population. -Paul
[2020-07-27 17:31:50] - paul: i do think the mickey rooney character does matter in the grand scheme of things. (though as an aside, it is interesting to hear his response to the criticism). for what it's worth, nobody is being called racist here: the author changed her own book. but also, the race matters today, but won't matter as much when publishers and producers have at least 1% diversity. ~a
[2020-07-27 17:31:40] - paul: nope. because i don't think it matters. it's a dumb argument imo. ~a
[2020-07-27 17:26:38] - a: Can you explain why the race of the book publishers matters? Is it because they are presumably racist and only allow books written by white people? Also, aren't we at the point where book publishers aren't really important gatekeepers anymore when anybody can publish a book through Amazon on their own (even I did it!). -Paul
[2020-07-27 15:03:53] - paul: it's not up on their podcast website yet (it aired ~20 hours ago). i'll link to it once it is. ~a
[2020-07-27 15:03:07] - paul: he said "it's madness". can straight actors not play lesbian characters? can eposcopalian actors not play muslim characters? (etc) the response was new to me, which is why i'm posting this: the responder likes that argument and thinks it'll be a "valid" argument in 30(ish) years, but today it lacks context of the today: that (book) publishers/producers have been white. once that changes, your arguments will "work". ~a
[2020-07-27 15:02:46] - paul: i listened to an npr segment this weekend (hidden brain) that would blow your mind. in a bad way. it was about novelists (!) writing about characters that were not their race. they introduced the concept with the breakfast at tiffany's character and it went on from there. they had a philosopher make "your argument" eloquently, imo. ~a
[2020-07-27 14:07:50] - a: It has less to do with the specific person and more to do with the fact that this kind of thinking and terminology seems like it could've come from either camp. It does get hard to distinguish at times. -Paul
[2020-07-27 04:23:42] - -Daniel
[2020-07-27 04:23:40] - There is a 76'er rookie who is doing VLOGs from inside the NBA bubble that are pretty interesting. Part of the most recent episode included shots from him and some other athletes brainstorming how best to use their voice / platform. Its nothing ground breaking but since most of us follow sports to some degree its an interesting look behind the scenes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XadUqS1y9pM 5:35 - 11:10 is the part I'm referring to.
[2020-07-25 13:44:50] - what makes you think this is an example of the extreme end of anti-racist? i'm pretty sure nobody has heard of lawrence mead. regardless, he's probably just a moron. ~a
[2020-07-25 12:34:15] - https://twitter.com/thomaschattwill/status/1286754142661345287 Another example of why I think the extreme ends of "racists" and "anti-racists" are a little too similar for my liking. -Paul
[2020-07-24 18:55:04] - "He also threatened to send tens of thousands of federal troops to cities, whether mayors wanted them there or not." i have no idea why i'm somehow surprised trump has doubled down on this. ~a
[2020-07-24 17:22:47] - (based on super old info, that might be out-dated) approved/official "traders" don't need to tie up their assets. i guess maybe i need to somehow get to be an approved trader?
~a[2020-07-24 17:19:24] - paul: "I guess you don't want to keep an eye on it every day?" yes, this is it! it's not just "every day", though . . . but like every second of every day? it's why limit orders are nice. the downside to a limit order is i have to have assets tied-up which is something i don't like. ~a
[2020-07-24 16:54:50] - a: I do not think I have a margin account. You want to put in a limit order to buy something once it drops to a certain price? Is there a reason you don't just wait until it happens and then take your actions? I guess you don't want to keep an eye on it every day? -Paul
[2020-07-24 16:53:35] - a: I heard about INTC and was wondering if that would mean a boost for AMD but didn't bother to check until now. Yeah, Intel seems to be REALLY struggling right now. -Paul
[2020-07-24 16:19:02] - paul: do you have a margin account? i had considered a weird scenario that i think a margin account would help with. (i want to create a long-term limit-buy but i don't want to hold cash to support the order. once the buy order executes i'll sell other stuff, but since i don't think i can easily make that automatic so i think a margin account would be the easiest way of doing this) ~a
[2020-07-24 16:17:08] - paul: did you see intc and amd today?! wow. intel ceo "spent almost an hour on Thursday discussing an idea that would once have been unthinkable for the world’s largest semiconductor company: Not manufacturing its own chips." i'm guessing they'll still make chips, they'll just do it through third parties. ~a
[2020-07-23 17:03:12] - mig: That was a pretty good video. I don't agree with everything Shapiro (or Rogan) said, but I do think it was a good civil discussion that attempted to tackle some of the big current issues (and it does help that I probably agree with them more than I disagree). -Paul
[2020-07-23 16:59:22] - aaron: yeah, it's probably the hard-drive cache. most operating systems cache up unwritten files for at least a few seconds. my issue was with files that were more than a few seconds old though, so i think maybe i had other problems too. ~a
[2020-07-23 16:19:02] - a: okay, that makes sense. i didn't think i had hit the 0.0001% chance that lightning struck during the millisecond it took to save a 100 kb json file. but the game had definitely opened it recently - aaron
[2020-07-23 14:55:17] - aaron: i have a bunch of files full of "^A" (0x01 characters) too from years and years ago when i had a hard-drive fail. in the dark-days before git. i only lost files that had been opened recently, luckily. ~a
[2020-07-23 14:45:10] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxSRAhp6TYg someone took some diablo 2 footage and turned it into HD resolution and some ML magic to make it look nice in that resolution. Pretty impressive. I think the Command and Conquer remaster uses similar techniques. - mig
[2020-07-23 14:25:25] - aaron: Hah, we lost power for about an hour last night. I haven't fully checked, but I hope all my save files are fine. -Paul
[2020-07-23 14:18:25] - so if anybody is digging through my source code in a few years wondering, "why did he bother making the save system so robust," the answer is that god did it
- aaron[2020-07-23 14:16:59] - and then yesterday --- a bolt of lightning struck while i was testing my game, and the power blinked off and on and my computer was 100% fine except for the save file which was replaced with 100 kb of '^@^@^@^@^@^@^@' for some reason. ha ha - aaron
[2020-07-23 14:15:52] - so weird personal anecdote. i'm making a video game and i realized a few months ago, "it would stink if your save data got corrupted and it deleted all of your high scores. i should add rolling backup saves", but then i dismissed the idea as gold plating, somthing i'd maybe do at the end if there was time - aaron
[2020-07-23 13:18:30] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hl0iNRXcUbE pretty long but good discussion. - mig
[2020-07-22 14:36:24] - true. ~a
[2020-07-22 14:36:08] - a: Satan Way would be a better name. -Paul
[2020-07-22 00:39:25] - are you sure? explain public art and road signs? why don't we have a hitler-is-awesome road? or satan drive? ~a
[2020-07-21 23:52:07] - for the purposes of being able to speak in a public space, they’re equivalent legally. -mig
[2020-07-21 20:15:31] - they're not all equivalent political issues. ~a
[2020-07-21 20:14:34] - daniel: is whether it's "partisan" relevant? They're all political issues. - mig
[2020-07-21 20:13:01] - Daniel: "MAGA is strictly partisan where in theory BLM should be non partisan." I haven't read the article, but this actually feels pretty similar to me. MAGA and BLM *should* be non-political, but in reality both are very politically charged movements, no? -Paul
[2020-07-21 20:02:00] - I guess do people think of abortion or gay rights or gun rights as non partisan issues? Even though the sides are clearly deliniated on a partisan level? Hmmm -Daniel
[2020-07-21 20:01:24] - MAGA is strictly partisan where in theory BLM should be non partisan. -Daniel
[2020-07-21 19:52:40] - mig: i give a giant "meh". cities often get to decide which and how labels and art get on public spaces. usually they shy away from politically charged messages like "blm", so this did surprise me. but we have "mlk jr ave" and "malcom x ave" in dc. i think these are fine, but "maga boulevard" is just not a perfect analogy. ~a
[2020-07-21 19:47:47] - https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/07/19/redwood-city-street-mural-blm-trump-maga/ if it means people I don't like get to speak, then I guess I'd rather have nobody speak! - mig
[2020-07-21 19:01:26] - a: I believe it's pretty new. Not even sure it's fully functional yet. I think it's pre-release. -Paul
[2020-07-21 18:20:17] - paul: is common stock a new website? i searched for "commonstockdev" and td ameritrade, and found ZERO results. "commonstockdev" is what common stock is called when you link it with td ameritrade. ~a
[2020-07-21 18:07:25] - paul: also it won't let me add holdings manually. ~a
[2020-07-21 18:05:44] - paul: looks like it isn't and can't be read-only. it's asking for these permissions (just picked td ameritrade as an example): "Place trades", "Move money", and some other more benign ones. and this is my only option. ~a
[2020-07-21 17:27:09] - right. ~a
[2020-07-21 17:26:59] - a: As long as the brokerage's API is safe, right? -Paul
[2020-07-21 16:38:49] - paul: yah, i mentioned the api. looks like you can even decide if you want it to be read-only or not. i think we're in the "2" territory now! you're losing your privacy, and potentially also your private data. but your money is (likely) safe. ~a
[2020-07-21 16:23:59] - "Why does CommonStock need my stock brokerage and/or crypto exchange login and password? We don’t! We actually never handle nor store your stock brokerage or crypto exchange login. We use something called an API that allows us to communicate with your platform. Only after you have used the login on their site (or on your third-party broker manager) to give us access." -Paul
[2020-07-21 15:55:02] - a: I don't know too much about metals and the amount of illegal mining to go along with them. If you're looking for diversification... maybe REITs or something along the lines of Fundrise? -Paul
[2020-07-21 15:46:34] - daniel/paul: ok, i've sold all of my gld positions, because fuck that. so now what? is there anything that just holds steady relative to . . . inflation adjusted usd? things i own: usd, btc, bonds, (treasuries). are there any others? i don't own any cds, but they seem to be exactly the same as my bonds (which hold lots of treasuries). are there metals that have only small amounts of illegal mining? is there anything else? ~a
[2020-07-21 15:13:05] - Yeah I'm not really sure how all that would work w/o giving them creds just noting a sentence I saw on their site. -Daniel
[2020-07-21 15:12:47] - Daniel: I guess you log in for them somehow? I don't know. It's pretty theoretical right now since they don't support my brokerage. I wish I could just submit statements or something. -Paul
[2020-07-21 14:55:50] - they say they use an API to access shit. maybe you can decide if the API is read-only or not. ~a
[2020-07-21 14:54:57] - hmmm, they also discuss trading from your account. doesn't sound like read-only access to me. ~a
[2020-07-21 14:54:12] - it's a little concerning they discuss their scottrade support. scottrade hasn't existed for like 4ish years? ~a
[2020-07-21 14:51:20] - oh, interesting. ok, wow. i guess they do use some sort of read-only access. maybe i'm down then. another problem i have, though, is that my money is in like 6 different brokerages. ~a
[2020-07-21 14:48:51] - paul: From common stocks website "At NO POINT do we store, hold, or have access to your login or password" so why are you giving them info? Also yeah I'm mostly with a that the risk is mostly just that they are inept somehow and compromise your info not that they are actually bad. -Daniel
[2020-07-21 14:31:31] - paul: (to be clear, i say 8, not because they'd do anything illicit with the information. of course they will not. there's just, like, a 50% chance they'll eventually get hacked) ~a
[2020-07-21 14:29:37] - paul: "at this point is there more he can mess up?" yes. regardless, i think his handling of the pandemic is evidence that he'd make a bad second-term president. ~a
[2020-07-21 14:27:34] - paul: 8? Unless there is some-sort of read-only access you can give them. then 2? i'd do it if it were the latter. some websites allow this, but i doubt your brokerage account is one of them. ~a
[2020-07-21 14:25:13] - https://commonstock.com/ On a scale of 1-10, how awful of an idea would it be to provide brokerage login info to a company like this? -Paul
[2020-07-21 14:24:51] - a: You could try to buy shares in Elon Musk.
-Paul[2020-07-21 14:24:31] - a: I think, as with most of the Trump administration, other things popped up to push his handling of the pandemic to the back burner. Honestly, though, at this point is there more he can mess up? I feel like it's mostly out of his hands now. -Paul
[2020-07-21 12:57:24] - as the markets discuss tsla entering the s&p500, i wonder how hard it would be to buy a stake in spacex . . . it's currently worth 1/10th of tsla (30b vs 300b) and is still privately owned. you'd probably have to buy shares (public or private?) in something that holds a stake in spacex. ~a
[2020-07-21 12:47:07] - did we stop giving trump a hard time for his handling of the pandemic? i feel like we didn't, i just wanted to be sure. ~a
[2020-07-20 23:38:07] - a: Thats not a very good tie breaker! -Daniel
[2020-07-20 21:13:25] - i'm free every day. ~a
[2020-07-20 21:12:53] - a: SC2 this week? You might be the tie-breaker for which day... -Paul
[2020-07-20 20:05:00] - ah then i'm not sure, recasting could be worse. probably depends on the size of the fee. ~a
[2020-07-20 20:03:13] - a: I believe there is usually a "small" fee for recasting that is less than refinancing. -Paul
[2020-07-20 19:20:57] - paul: when it comes to recasting or prepaying, i pick neither, you know that. but if i had to pick, recasting (assuming it's free!) might be slightly better because you'll have more money to put into the stock market, and less money will go to those "stupid" principal payments. ~a
[2020-07-20 19:20:02] - paul: is recasting free? (refinancing can be very expensive, but is often a good deal if the interest rate goes down) ~a
[2020-07-20 19:18:01] - Paul: Oh the amount that is due each month doesn't change. I thought you had to refinance to change that. I can just pay extra to pay less interest over time and pay it off sooner. But the agreement of a minimum per month doesn't change. -Daniel
[2020-07-20 19:15:29] - paul: sort of? you're technically correct . . . but prepaying changes more than just the term of your loan though. it also changes how much you pay into equity every month (up), and how much you pay into interest (down). ~a
[2020-07-20 19:11:40] - a: Ah, okay, so I read some more. So if you contribute more towards principal, then it reduces the term of the loan, but if you recast, then it reduces the monthly payment? -Paul
[2020-07-20 18:59:18] - paul: this nonsense about "amortization schedule" doesn't really make sense. it's a misunderstanding of how (my) mortgages have always worked. ~a
[2020-07-20 18:57:44] - paul: if you don't see that, then they didn't take your payment and apply it to the principal. ~a
[2020-07-20 18:57:05] - paul: in my example, my unpaid balance is 695792.74 and my interest rate is 3.375. 3.375/100/12*695792.74 = 1956.92 (which is *exactly* the interest payment they had me make that month) ~a
[2020-07-20 18:55:45] - paul: it's super easy to check for yourself. look at your interest charges and make sure it's equal to your yearlyInterestRate/100/12*balance. if it is equal, your prepayment worked and you don't have to *do* anything! if it is not equal, then your prepayment didn't "work" (get applied to the principal) and they *stupidly* put the prepayment down as a payment you just paid early. ~a
[2020-07-20 18:54:25] - My provider just has an option where you can see an amortization schedule with whatever prepayment you want to look at. So you can see what it would be with no prepayment or lots or whatever. You could probably set it up in excel / google sheets too. -Daniel
[2020-07-20 18:50:54] - Daniel: I thought the amortization schedule doesn't get updated unless you ask for a recasting. I've never made additional payments so I am unclear how it works. -Paul
[2020-07-20 18:48:27] - We prepay some. I'm not sure what you mean by your question. I can see an updated amortization schedule on the website that includes the prepayment if thats what you mean. -Daniel
[2020-07-20 18:44:44] - Anybody here making extra payments towards their mortgage? Do you ever ask for a recast to change the amortization schedule? -Paul
[2020-07-20 18:01:10] - Paul: yeah. -Daniel
[2020-07-20 17:42:05] - Daniel: https://www.newsbreak.com/washington/seattle/news/1588086114576/chop-in-seattle-has-black-only-racially-segregated-zone I mostly agree with your point, though. To be clear, I am not saying that the two groups are identical (or exact opposites), only that both are pretty similar in how they put so much importance on race. -Paul
[2020-07-20 17:35:49] - I agree mostly with the humor/commentary angle on the video and I thought it was funny. I think some of the distinction would come from the racist saying Blacks aren't allowed in white stores vs woke where they might say supporting minority owned business is good. While there is some overlap in those concepts they aren't the same thing. -Daniel
[2020-07-20 17:09:59] - https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1994-03-05-1994064117-story.html This is super old and I wish I could find the poll because the article is hard for me to follow, but I found this amusing (stumbled upon it looking for something else). The headline is "Many blacks reject Farrakhan in poll" even though it looks like a plurality of blacks who had heard of him approve of him. -Paul
[2020-07-20 17:02:02] - a: I thought I posted a few articles about how blacks should be going to black doctors and only supporting back businesses... -Paul
[2020-07-20 17:01:38] - a: Yeah, I think the video was probably 60% comedy and 40% commentary, so it's not surprising that accuracy was sacrificed some for humor. I agree that most woke people probably wouldn't explicitly say that, but I do think a lot do and that it might be the direction the movement is going. -Paul
[2020-07-20 16:46:39] - like, if you said "black people should only go to black stores" or whatever the both said, like come on, average (woke) america doesn't believe this. some people believe this, sure, but i wouldn't call them "woke", i'd call them idiots. ~a
[2020-07-20 16:45:35] - paul: i guess the first thought i had was most people don't consider what the "woke" guy was saying to be "woke" necessarily. i've definitely heard some of these comments before, but they're mostly considered (to me) to be fringe. ~a
[2020-07-20 16:41:47] - paul: i liked that video more than i thought i would. i don't really have a response yet, but i'm sure one will eventually come to me. ~a
[2020-07-20 16:14:08] - https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory/ap-capitalize-black-white-71877134 I think the real question is what will the AP do about "brown" (Brown?) as a descriptor for people... -Paul
[2020-07-20 14:32:06] - a: In terms of the far left and far right being closer to each other than many people might think. -Paul
[2020-07-20 14:31:36] - a: https://twitter.com/ryanlongcomedy/status/1285208497517473793 This is kinda what I was talking about earlier.
-Paul[2020-07-19 20:55:40] - I am without kids or wife tonight if anybody is interested in some SC2... -Paul
[2020-07-18 00:49:03] - a: https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/does-the-federal-reserve-own-or-hold-gold.htm Ugh, the tie up between the federal reserve and the US Treasury (yet, at the same time, the weird distinction between the two) is maddening. -Paul
[2020-07-18 00:45:58] - Daniel: Should be. -Paul
[2020-07-17 18:27:29] - Paul: You are back in for SC2 next week right? -Daniel
[2020-07-17 18:04:36] - mig: i agree people taking down statues themselves isn't a great idea. full stop. not something i'd shoot someone over, though. ~a
[2020-07-17 16:42:09] - the reason illegally mined gold is so popular nowadays is because it's apparently a real easy way to launder large blocks money more efficiently. ~a
[2020-07-17 16:39:50] - paul: i'm pretty sure the fed mostly doesn't deal with gold. the us mint is part of treasury and it's what you think of when you think of "fort knox" or "us gold reserves" or bouillon or whatever. our recently added us gold reserves are most entirely illegally mined gold. ~a
[2020-07-17 16:36:36] - paul: yeah, i agree with the warren buffet quote. he needs to update i though. it's not africa. more importantly though, the part he missed was the mercury. it damages the miners themselves but also their neighbors. and the forest cutting is also illegal. ~a
[2020-07-17 16:10:08] - Though I guess that person's life may be a small price to pay for "the cause", amirite? - mig
[2020-07-17 16:09:06] - https://au.news.yahoo.com/man-crushed-while-pulling-down-confederate-statue-050219545.html maybe just letting people take down statues isn't such a great idea. - mig
[2020-07-17 15:17:49] - a: The US? Like the government or the federal reserve? I know next to nothing about illegal gold mining but I have always found the Warren Buffett quote amusing, "[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility." -Paul
[2020-07-17 05:32:15] - paul: i had always guessed that gold mining was bad for the environment, but i didn't quite realize how insanely bad illegal gold mines were for the environment. they typically cut down forests and brazenly pour heavy metals (mercury) directly into the waterways. like blood diamonds, i guess, but unlike diamonds, you can easily melt it down. apparently the us buys gold from refineries that exclusively dealt with illegal mines. ~a
[2020-07-16 23:21:14] - Not sure if the Goya thing is legal and it does seem at least a little sketchy, but as sketchy things go, it honestly seems like one of the least crappy things of this presidency, all things considered.
-Paul[2020-07-16 23:19:56] - a: My reaction is a raised eyebrow that "All Lives Matter" warrants firing but his actions don't (for Fox, at least, not necessarily the case for CBS). I'm actually not necessarily of the opinion that he HAS to lose his job, just more disappointed by the apparent double standard. -Paul
[2020-07-16 19:42:28] - mig: ah you're right, i didn't see what she was retweeting. i'll reply to that though, "make your shopping decisions accordingly" is less subtle, but still not literally a boycott. i'd love if every call to action was worded: "please do your own research and make sure i'm not bullshitting you". ~a
[2020-07-16 18:30:20] - a: she's retweeting a definite call for a boycott. Without that, yes it'd be subtle, but it's not. - mig
[2020-07-16 18:14:40] - mig: where's the boycott? i mean, i hate to show my bias, but aoc is being so subtle here i'm not even sure she wants us to boycott goya products or not. there's some deep between-the-lines reading here. and on the other hand, trump literally set out a bunch of goya products on the resolute desk, and smiled and gave the thumbs up, like he was in a goddamn advert. not exactly subtle. ~a
[2020-07-16 17:55:30] - daniel: https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1281383352315125762 - mig
[2020-07-16 17:23:32] - But Trump in the oval definitely seems like the most egregious example of that. Everything Trump does tends to be egregious though so not surprised. -Daniel
[2020-07-16 17:22:48] - mig: I would mostly believe its there somewhere but I just tried to google politicians supporting the goya boycott and didn't see any (which might be because search results are just mostly about trump). Do you know if there are politicians calling for a boycott? I would agree that politicians calling for a boycott isn't a good look either cause gov getting involved like that seems not great. -Daniel
[2020-07-16 17:10:23] - Honestly, calling for boycotts on a business owned by a minority because his crime was he said something nice about evil orange man feel like a much shittier action in my eyes. - mig
[2020-07-16 16:59:16] - a: if politicians calling for boycotting is perfectly legal, I’m pretty sure Trump doing this is similarly fine. - mig
[2020-07-16 15:43:29] - is this legal? i feel like a bunch of laws are being broken here. but even if i'm wrong, and this is completely legal, it does seem like a questionable move by a questionable presidency. apparently this was thumbing his nose at people who were going after ivanka for doing the same damn thing? ~a
[2020-07-16 14:38:46] - what is your reaction, paul? usually you're all for these people keeping their jobs. he's just stating facts, right? (/s) ~a
[2020-07-16 14:34:33] - https://twitter.com/kmele/status/1283637077603753985 I assume you all heard about Nick Cannon? -Paul
[2020-07-16 12:42:21] - a: Cool, thanks for the info. I didn't end up posting anything because it felt like maybe not the best idea. -Paul
[2020-07-16 03:37:28] - you can also generate addresses (and the associated private key) super easily. that would be fine too. ~a
[2020-07-16 03:35:50] - you lose privacy. that's one thing. people can *sometimes* guess what other addresses are yours. if you have an address that's never been used that is best. ~a
[2020-07-15 22:32:18] - a: Apparently a lot of bitcoin-related twitter accounts got hacked and have been tweeting out scams along with bitcoin wallet addresses to try to get btc from people. I was going to tweet out a joke referencing it and use my old hot wallet address. Is there any harm to that? -Paul
[2020-07-15 22:27:38] - Daniel: Gurkie's sister made that video! I know so very little about the state of NYC public schools so I couldn't begin to talk about that. -Paul
[2020-07-15 17:17:25] - are they paranoid about some magical student from an impoverished and undereducated community passing their academic screenings, miraculously obtaining straight As, extracurricular activities and high test scores in some sort of slumdog millionaire scenario? i feel like academic screens would combat diversity well enough on their own - aaron
[2020-07-15 17:16:16] - i'm sort of baffled (and probably just uneducated) about why, even assuming malicious intent, schools like Eleanor Roosevelt would need to restrict admission to wealthy districts to keep out non-white students - aaron
[2020-07-15 15:28:40] - Balancing educational merit with an interest in diversity and over the long term trying to not just perpetuate systemic issues. If 7 black kids out of 895 is a fluke thats one thing but if its that low consistently it seems like something to think about and consider. AA brings its own issues certainly but I think things like this illustrate why it exists. -Daniel
[2020-07-15 15:25:58] - https://www.teenvogue.com/story/ok-boomer-new-york-city-public-schools-desegregate This article came from Gurkie on facebook but I think is an interesting follow up to the brief affirmative action conversation from the other day. I still there are definitely issues wiht AA but I think this shows somewhat what can happen without it and where it starts from in some cases. -Daniel
[2020-07-15 15:01:56] - mig: Sure, that makes sense. And to be clear, I don't really care much about the name change at all. I'm just a tiny bit skeptical of all of these decisions happening at the same time. -Paul
[2020-07-15 01:42:33] - paul: i think it was more about pressuring the right people. Most people went after Snyder and the team ownership, but it was probably more effective for FedEx to feel the pressure. - mig
[2020-07-15 00:50:01] - a: Maybe this was a gradual thing behind the scenes over those years, but I feel like 90% of the change happened in those few days. -Paul
[2020-07-15 00:49:21] - a: Not the asking, the reaction. Dan Snyder basically went from "We'll never change the name, it's that simple. NEVER — you can use caps." to "We're changing the name" in like a few days, right? -Paul
[2020-07-15 00:13:21] - paul: from 2006: "Dave: I have a coworker (who as far as I can tell has absolutely no ties to native americans at all) who hates the name "Redskins" and says she refuses to cheer for the team at all until they change the name. -Paul" ~a
[2020-07-15 00:10:41] - paul: what panic or knee jerk is happening? people have been asking for this change for decades. ~a
[2020-07-14 23:27:15] - a: https://abcnews.go.com/US/nfl-apologizes-listening-players-racism-colin-kaepernick-remains/story?id=71122596 This is what I was referring to. -Paul
[2020-07-14 23:27:07] - Sorry, I'm out of town on vacation so I'm only checking in sparingly. I don't think it's a surprise to either of you that I am leery about when corporations panic and make knee-jerk reactions to things. -Paul
[2020-07-14 20:30:42] - https://reason.com/2020/07/14/bari-weiss-resigns-from-the-new-york-times-alleging-that-self-censorship-has-become-the-norm/ kind of surprised she left on her own, or that she was still with the NYT. - mig
[2020-07-14 19:40:15] - a: I mean it more speaks to Trumps failures. TX major cities are all blueish to some degree but there is a lot of land / people spread out across the state. I don't think TX goes reliably blue anytime soon but I could see it being a real swing state in the next 10 years. -Daniel
[2020-07-14 19:03:11] - daniel: there was a poll that said biden was winning by 5 points in texas. i know we're still four months away from voting, but . . . texas? nice. ~a
[2020-07-14 15:33:20] - paul: 1. the nfl backtracked on kaepernick? i didn't see that update. 2. should the nfl not backtracked on kaepernick? ~a
[2020-07-14 15:19:20] - Paul: Maybe I'm reading into that to much but it reads like you think thats a negative? Like isn't a good thing overall if corporate america is trying not to be / look racist? Or do you agree thats a good thing? -Daniel
[2020-07-14 14:25:17] - a: Eh, it feels like there's a panic among all of corporate america to avoid being seen as remotely racist right now, so it didn't surprise me given the current moment. Once the NFL backtracked on Kaepernick it seemed like anything in football was fair game. -Paul
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