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[2020-08-18 15:27:52] - paul: no idea. you could get it refined, i guess? or pay "rent" to store it. those are the only two options i can think of. ~a
[2020-08-18 15:25:08] - a: I'm not sure I have any confidence at all in a significant rebound on the price of oil in the near future. Is there any other way to profit off a "lot" of oil? -Paul
[2020-08-18 14:59:13] - We'd need my cousin for that. Thats not my area. I think we've definitely had a slow down domestically but no idea about globally. -Daniel
[2020-08-18 14:40:57] - *** Paul looks at daniel
[2020-08-18 14:38:43] - haha thinking about it. it does seems like quite the risk without some inside information about which way the market might swing. i think someone here might have some inside info for us though . . . ~a
[2020-08-18 14:18:03] - a: Are you talking about buying a "lot"? -Paul
[2020-08-18 13:35:50] - a: I'd probably do that. Honestly. -- Xpovos
[2020-08-18 12:57:03] - apparently you're "typically" allowed to pay rental fees to keep the oil at the distribution area (fees to store oil typically graduate, so when storage is almost full, prices go up). but the distribution-area storage had no vacancy. now i wanna be a comodities trader! it sounds so interesting. typical lot sizes are 1000 barrels, who wants to go in with me on a "lot" of oil?! ~a
[2020-08-18 04:01:37] - daniel: word. I think some people were going to refuse delivery (default) which means lawsuit settlement. ~a
[2020-08-17 19:57:43] - a: well with oil it was because there were other external costs associated with the thing. Like storing the oil - since that costs money having the oil isn't free unless you want it just dumped on the ground. -Daniel
[2020-08-17 19:45:37] - the idea of buying something with a negative cost is intriguing (i get the thing, and i get money?!) until i realize that i'd probably have to sell it at an even more negative cost. or worse. ~a
[2020-08-17 19:35:28] - a: Hey, I'm as paranoid about a black swan event that results in hyper-inflation / monetary collapse / etc as anybody else. Why else do you think I own some bitcoin and precious metals and am on the lookout for other hedges? -Paul
[2020-08-17 19:30:02] - and here you thought going long had limited exposure. ~a
[2020-08-17 19:29:05] - a: Hey, there was a brief time when certain types of oil had a negative cost, so that seal has already been broken.
-Paul[2020-08-17 19:20:10] - it'll happen, right after owning cash becomes illegal. the meaning of money will reverse. being over-leveraged will become a good thing (...) ~a
[2020-08-17 19:18:28] - a: I kept joking with Gurkie that that was my ultimate goal: negative mortgage rate.
-Paul[2020-08-17 19:18:08] - a: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/uwm-announces-1-99-rate-for-30-year-fixed-mortgage/ -Paul
[2020-08-17 19:18:01] - wtf. lets see if we can find a negative-interest-rate mortgage. ~a
[2020-08-17 19:17:30] - a: I've heard rumors of rates under 2%, but they are just that.... rumors. -Paul
[2020-08-17 19:13:12] - i've never seen a (30y-f) mortgage rate below 3%. it's like breaking the four minute mile. ~a
[2020-08-17 19:11:30] - yes. ~a
[2020-08-17 19:11:20] - a: "Jeeeeeze" because that's a good rate? I hope... -Paul
[2020-08-17 19:08:37] - a: The closing paperwork wasn't too bad. The notary came into our house and we spent about an hour with them signing our paperwork and that was about it. -Paul
[2020-08-17 19:07:30] - 2.875%? jeeeeeze. ~a
[2020-08-17 19:06:58] - a: Obviously calling a bottom on mortgage rates probably is about the same as calling market bottoms, though, so the usual caveats apply (nobody can really know, etc). I just saw the big gap between treasury yields and mortgage rates and figured there was some more room to fall (at the time). -Paul
[2020-08-17 19:05:51] - a: We just (a few weeks ago) finished up with our refinance. We went from a 4.25% 30 year fixed to a 2.875% 30 year fixed. The process took awhile, but I kept telling Gurkie I didn't mind since it seemed like mortgage rates were still on their way down (most weeks seemed to keep hitting new lows). -Paul
[2020-08-17 19:02:35] - yah. or maybe not. maybe i just got lucky in 2012? your mileage may vary. if the rates drop another half percent, i'll be looking into it more seriously. ~a
[2020-08-17 18:40:10] - a: I should probably look into it more than I have. -- Xpovos
[2020-08-17 18:29:38] - xpovos: understood. i've had my mortgage sold to usbank bank at my last house. they're not my bank, but i had no problem getting a free refi through them. no idea if every "bank" is like that or not. ~a
[2020-08-17 18:28:26] - As for why I'm not keen on refi-ing with our current bank, it's because my mortgage has been sold a few times so I'm not with a bank I ever chose to be with. -- Xpovos
[2020-08-17 18:27:30] - a: Fair. I don't think I could (or would want to) refi with the bank we're with. I'd prefer to refi with my credit union, which would be a change, so there's some hassle there as well. In addition to the question of whether the credit union would even do it.
[2020-08-17 18:16:59] - i feel if the cost is zero, then the threshold should be . . . lower? ~a
[2020-08-17 18:16:00] - xpovos: what if the cost (other than time/hassle, obviously) is zero? sometimes refis (if you don't change banks) don't cost anything. ~a
[2020-08-17 18:14:33] - a: I'm not in the market for a refi. I can think of a couple of situations where a refi would be a better choice for me financially, but the inertia cost is just too much. I could get a percentage point off my rate, maybe, as a best case scenario. Generally, 1 point is the threshold where it makes sense, I think. -- Xpovos
[2020-08-17 18:01:19] - the reason i want to put it off for a few months more is that rates are barely below my current rate. i figure they won't fall much further, so if i act, it'll be a threading the needle situation. ~a
[2020-08-17 17:59:39] - if you stay with your current bank, you just have to meet with a guy once really quick-like. you don't have to go through the usual rigmarole. i did it ~2012 and it was super quick and easy. i even changed to a 15-year, and it didn't add complication at all. signing the paperwork for me just meant meeting some guy at a panera for like 5 minutes (so he can make sure you're an actual person?
) ~a[2020-08-17 17:56:21] - a: I hadn't paid much attention to it. I might take a look now to see what the math is on how long it would take to be worth it. Signing all the paperwork seems like it would be a pain in pandemic times. -Daniel
[2020-08-17 17:53:43] - daniel/paul/mig/aaron/xpovos: ok, i guess everyone. mortgage rates are at a 2-year-low. have you considered the ole' refi? will waiting a few more months be a good idea or a bad idea? (last question is fairly rhetorical really . . . but if you have any prognostications i'll read them) ~a
[2020-08-17 16:55:54] - Daniel: I don't know if I can this week. Anniversary on Thursday and plans on Wednesday. I would suggest planning without me and I'll see if I can join at some point. -Paul
[2020-08-17 16:55:23] - Daniel: GM abuse? No. Commissioner abusing his authority? Maybe.
-Paul[2020-08-17 16:14:15] - paul: sc2? -Daniel
[2020-08-17 16:07:30] - paul: Don't tell Tim to stop trading me with me! Thats like GM abuse. Right? Pretty sure. Maybe... Anyways I need those trades! -Daniel
[2020-08-16 20:17:28] - paul: i don't go through computer parts very often either, but really old parts (10+ years old, like you said), i'll usually take to the electronics recycling center. it's better than throwing it out (only slightly, but still). sometimes i'll take old computer parts and turn it into a server, but it doesn't always work out like that. ~a
[2020-08-16 13:14:27] - Also, my kids have chromebooks and tablets of their own right now that fulfill pretty much 99% of their needs, so I don't even know if the desktop would get any use. Any thoughts on what I should do? I'm guessing I can't sell any of those parts, but I also feel bad throwing them out. -Paul
[2020-08-16 13:13:29] - And make it a project to put a new machine together with my kids so they have their own desktop to use. But apparently those parts are going to run me around $200 and the end result would probably be a machine that is worse than an off-the-shelf computer I could buy for about the same amount. -Paul
[2020-08-16 13:12:16] - I feel like I may have asked this before, but after putting my new computer together, I have a bunch of old (>10 years) parts that largely seem to be perfectly functional, but are obviously not top-of-the-line. My thought was to maybe buy some extra parts (case, power supply, etc)... -Paul
[2020-08-14 17:38:54] - a: Well, it's hard to disentangle memory problems from everything else. He has kinda forgotten where he is before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAHoul4IYMY -Paul
[2020-08-14 17:00:13] - paul: i'll make fun of joe as much as the next guy, but is his memory failing? i'd argue he's a fucking gaffe machine, and doesn't think before he speaks, and is a handsy serial molester with zero boundaries. but, i haven't seen any memory issues yet. ~a
[2020-08-14 17:00:10] - paul: to be fair, there have actually been people who have said they probably believe Tara Reade, but will vote for biden anyways. - mig
[2020-08-14 16:57:30] - a: Heh, I'm not so sure he does.
-Paul[2020-08-14 16:56:02] - i'm sure he remembers. ~a
[2020-08-14 16:21:58] - https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/11/flashback-kamala-harris-said-she-believed-bidens-rape-accusers/ Huh, so Biden's new running mate basically is on record saying he is both a racist and a sexual assaulter.
-Paul[2020-08-14 14:02:41] - because it would give credence to the "they are disrespecting the anthem and this protest is anti-American" or whatever line of thought. -Paul
[2020-08-14 14:02:12] - mig: Honestly, I couldn't tell either. The article seemed poorly written to me. I couldn't figure out which things (the anthem not playing, the 8 minutes of silence, the raised fists...) happened during the game with the booing and which didn't. Honestly, in some ways, booing would seem more justified if the anthem was notably not playing... -Paul
[2020-08-14 00:09:54] - paul: i’m confused was the anthem playing when they were kneeling? If not them I think the booing is probably out of line. - mig
[2020-08-13 17:29:19] - a: Fairfax County is currently virtual only, so once school starts back up (in a few weeks, I believe), they will be fully virtual for now. -Paul
[2020-08-13 16:52:45] - a: We're kind of in the middle. Virtual from public school but will be going to the JCC where she is currently doing summer camp. Reasoning being that we do think she will learn better out of the house and its smaller class sizes with the same kids she has already been seeing in summer camp and less transitions / shared spaces than actual school. -Daniel
[2020-08-13 16:46:08] - daniel/paul/xpovos: probably should ask this during sc2 since i'll get ~two more data-points, but i guess this is a start: are you kids in school? are they virtual only or physically attending? what about looking forward? just curious, thanks! ~a
[2020-08-13 16:03:32] - Paul: Somewhere in the ballpark of adrian. I might try to talk to someone if they boo'ed while I was sitting there but hard to say for sure. I don't think they are definitely racist but it might make me wonder. Maybe they just don't follow things and have no idea why they are kneeling? Its possible. -Daniel
[2020-08-13 16:00:49] - if i was sitting next to the booing person, i'd give them a nasty look. that's about all i can muster. i don't think they're racist, just dumb. ~a
[2020-08-13 15:37:35] - booing is their right. they can boo the troops if they want, they can boo the free market, they can boo puppies and kittens, they can boo blm: i'll think equally little of them. not much you can do about booing, so i guess i don't care? i guess calling it "disgraceful" (as the guy on the video did) is probably a valid response. ~a
[2020-08-13 15:07:54] - https://www.espn.com/soccer/fc-dallas/story/4158666/fans-boo-players-who-take-a-knee-before-dallas-vs-nashville-in-mls Question: How do you (thinking mostly Adrian and Daniel here) think of the fans that booed? Misguided? Racist? It's their right? I guess what level of horrible do you think they are? (not to ask a leading question or anything) -Paul
[2020-08-12 20:13:33] - a: Heh, maybe they picked 5:1 so the stock can hit $420 again... -Paul
[2020-08-12 20:02:27] - a: Yeah. Selling even a single share of Amazon for the past few years has felt daunting. -Paul
[2020-08-12 19:55:04] - its come up a lot more recently. after the advent of $0 trades, i'm more willing to re-balance my positions more often. ~a
[2020-08-12 19:52:57] - i don't think buying fractional shares has ever occurred to me either. but *selling* fractional shares often seems like it would be useful (after a few shares go 10x, it's hard to sell, say 1/3rd of my position) ~a
[2020-08-12 19:49:26] - a: Well, I don't generally buy fractional shares either. I put a little bit of cash into Robinhood at one point to play around with it (same thing as Cash App). -Paul
[2020-08-12 19:40:11] - yeah robinhood allows it, sorry i didn't know you used robinhood. ~a
[2020-08-12 19:39:45] - a: Hmmm, I thought Robinhood was advertising it to me (I haven't done it there). Cash App also, bizarrely, pretty much doesn't even let you buy or sell based on shares but only dollar amounts. -Paul
[2020-08-12 18:50:55] - "10% redemption fee for partial shares" ooof. hopefully you've looked into your fees, 10% is crazy. ~a
[2020-08-12 18:49:42] - (i know at one point you were using boa. i can't find online if they support partial shares) ~a
[2020-08-12 18:46:17] - paul: "you cannot directly buy [or sell] a fractional share of stock on TD Ameritrade ... Etrade, Vanguard, or Schwab". which broker do you use that allows this? i was just thinking i'd like to sell half a share of tsla. def would have sold half a share of amazon at least once. ~a
[2020-08-12 15:38:18] - paul: seeing as how easily we are confused by these decisions though, i'm surprised this isn't defined by law. i know you'd be against that, but it does feel like the psychological decisions made at this level only confuse the problem on the order of billions of dollars. ~a
[2020-08-12 15:31:54] - paul: so the way i usually see it, is they do an even smaller split: 2:1. but then they do it again and again over the years. it's less of a "deal". doing a 10:1 or 20:1 split is too "big" of a change imo. ~a
[2020-08-12 15:18:26] - a: I wonder why 5-1 instead of something like 10-1 or even 20-1. The stock will still be hundreds of dollars a share after the split. I guess they don't want a pullback to make it too low to where they worry about delisting, but there still seems to be a lot of room. -Paul
[2020-08-12 14:53:37] - a: Oh, sure, I agree with that. Yes. -Paul
[2020-08-12 14:34:48] - i agree with what you say about tsla volatility. (all equities in 2020 have had high volatility) but my point was that the few dow jones etfs that hold tsla won't affect its price much on the split. ~a
[2020-08-12 14:30:22] - a: Eh, it's still down over the past month. Volatility has been going down some recently, but stocks still seem to be jumping or dropping 4-5% a day for no apparent reason. Tesla jumping 7% on split news doesn't phase me much.
-Paul[2020-08-12 14:19:19] - the amount they sell won't account for a 5% change though (7% now)
~a[2020-08-12 14:18:32] - yah. ~a
[2020-08-12 14:17:10] - a: Uh... it would change how much Tesla is weighted in the Dow, so any index funds for the Dow would buy less of it (or, I suppose, even sell some of it). -Paul
[2020-08-12 14:14:21] - so if i read your link correctly, a stock split wouldn't change the TOTAL value of the DJIA, but it would change how much of the DJIA is accounted for by a single company? your changes wouldn't affect the average as much? ~a
[2020-08-12 14:11:56] - a: Yeah, I'm a little torn on stock splits. I guess the argument against is that a higher stock price encourages longer term investors since it's harder to "trade" the stock. On the other hand, until recently, it basically priced out lots of people from being able to buy shares. -Paul
[2020-08-12 14:10:47] - a: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100214/why-dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-price-weighted.asp#:~:text=A%20price%2Dweighted%20index%20uses,of%20a%20pr Because the Dow is price weighted, not market cap weighted. -Paul
[2020-08-12 14:09:02] - paul: yeah, you're right of course. ok, i guess shake my head for a different reason, i guess. if splitting changes your worth, then you waited too long to split? maybe not though, because all of this shit is about psychology, so who the fuck knows. amzn and brk-a are really just playing mind-games at this point. "it would matter if they were added to the Dow" i don't know what you mean here. can you explain, please? ~a
[2020-08-12 14:05:52] - a: I did. So, I get why any change in price due to a stock split is like 99% unwarranted, but it DOES expand the number of people who can do options with them, right? Since there still aren't fractional options contracts. Also, it would matter if they were added to the Dow.
-Paul[2020-08-12 13:42:50] - paul: i assume you heard about the tsla split? (5:1). stock went up 5% on the news. (shakes head). split goes in effect on august 31st. ~a
[2020-08-12 13:20:44] - daniel: wow, that is a big step. next step is full-time employment.
~a[2020-08-12 00:45:18] - Daniel: Nice! Congrats! Side hustle leveled up? -Paul
[2020-08-11 21:32:16] - Paul: I think biden / harris will be pro police reform would be my guess which is basically what defunding the police is (in my head anyway). -Daniel
[2020-08-11 21:30:32] - http://webapps.rrc.texas.gov/dpimages/img/5000000-5099999//PR0005091738_0001.pdf - first actual filing from a real company using my software to the state of TX. Wooo. Also kind of scary. -Daniel
[2020-08-11 20:59:49] - mig: Looks like it. Or something to handle social media changes for the official party nominee stuff? I dunno. It's not a terribly surprising pick in the vacuum, though I will admit to being a little surprised in the moment. -- Xpovos
[2020-08-11 20:31:52] - mig: Federal crime bills (that some people might have helped author) are not, though.
I agree that it shouldn't be a federal issue, but I'm sure it'll come up. -Paul[2020-08-11 20:31:47] - xpovos: the twitter thing was a red herring, I guess? - mig
[2020-08-11 20:29:27] - paul: is that at all relevant though? Police funding is mostly a state/local issue. - mig
[2020-08-11 20:27:00] - Also, man, can we all agree that now that the Democratic ticket has both Biden and Harris that it is NOT a ticket friendly to the idea of "defunding the police" (whatever that means)? -Paul
[2020-08-11 20:25:45] - mig: Sounds like you and Daniel were right. It also sounds like I get some more points for the presidential primary draft! -Paul
[2020-08-11 20:19:35] - It's Harris. - mig
[2020-08-11 20:18:25] - CNN is going down the list of who it's not it seems. Not Abrams. - mig
[2020-08-11 20:15:27] - mig: What are the chances he would pick somebody with the first name of Karen? I am only half joking.... which is sad. -Paul
[2020-08-11 20:14:48] - Bass is definitely not the pick, according to CNN. - mig
[2020-08-11 19:25:13] - Xpovos: News breaks that Biden has his VP picked.... and the stock market drops. Maybe a sign you are right about Warren?
-Paul[2020-08-11 18:49:37] - Maybe Nina Turner? -- Xpovos
[2020-08-11 18:39:00] - Paul: Woman, yes. I haven't heard a hard line on 'of color'. If so that would (probably, per your joke) rule out Warren. But Whitmer too. Stacey Abrams felt like a massive long shot recently, but who knows. -- Xpovos
[2020-08-11 18:36:28] - Xpovos: I thought Biden all but guaranteed it would be a woman "of color". Does Native American count?
-Paul[2020-08-11 18:35:34] - I guess if he's still going by must be PoC requirement .... Rice I guess? - mig
[2020-08-11 18:18:18] - xpovos: if he was going to buck the expectations, i figure he'd go with Whitmer. - mig
[2020-08-11 18:13:40] - Paul/mig/Daniel: Harris unfollowed Biden on Twitter. That was a news story. We live in a weird world that that's news. But I do have to think it means she's on the outs with the campaign. Not Harris. Warren is the buzz I was hearing, but I don't know if I buy that. -- Xpovos
[2020-08-11 18:12:36] - Paul: Yeah, that was the worst of it. But I was wrong enough that it wasn't just Aparna. I also did have a point, I think I did a better job articulating it with that experience (and many others) under my belt. FWIW, I reviewed the original debate and I felt I did a terrible job of conveying my message. So, hindsight is something. -- Xpovos
[2020-08-11 17:59:39] - paul: Probably Harris. - mig
[2020-08-11 17:54:31] - Paul: Harris! -Daniel
[2020-08-11 17:31:50] - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/11/biden-vp-choice-campaign-prepares-for-announcement.html Any guesses who he'll pick? -Paul
[2020-08-11 17:18:13] - Xpovos: I caught the reference! It was between you and Aparna, right? -Paul
[2020-08-11 14:55:39] - then win for that guy who said he wants to save babies. -Daniel
[2020-08-11 14:55:29] - I think ad hominem / what about ism / bad faith arguements etc are never going away until the voting populace decides to make them go away by paying attention / punishing those that do it. The reason they exist is that they are effective for people who don't pay a ton of attention. If you watch 10 minutes of news a day and that 10 minutes is a politician going I WANT TO SAVE BABIES! THEY WANT TO EAT THEM! and then vote for that guy...
[2020-08-11 14:49:21] - Very unrelated, but maybe somehow related, I ended up making a very oblique reference to a very old debate here in our last podcast. -- Xpovos
[2020-08-11 14:48:55] - mig: 10 is fine imo (unless you're not counting everybody). also 15 minutes is reasonable in my opinion for a daily scrum. when ours gets over 30 minutes (or over 15 people) i'm angry with the world. ~a
[2020-08-11 14:48:32] - xpovos: ah yes. i had considered that. still like you said, i have no idea what he means, regardless. ~a
[2020-08-11 14:47:31] - a: I think pierce was complaining about ad hominem in the larger discussion, not necessarily here. Perhaps the argument isn't that the discussion here is bad, but the discussion not here is? Why can't we have a more coherent public debate at high levels in public? Maybe I shouldn't be speaking for pierce, though. -- Xpovos
[2020-08-11 14:45:22] - a: we're combining 2 smaller teams into 1 starting this week. We're at 10 right now but we're adding 2 more people over the course of the next 2 weeks. We've kept the meetings to under 15 mins both today and yesterday, but I'm skeptical if that will hold. - mig
[2020-08-11 14:34:12] - pierce: you're probably going to have to be more specific about what you're talking about. i read the last conversation you had on 2020-05-02, and i didn't see any ad-hominim or bad-faith. we do have the tendency to be harsh and sometimes illogical (maybe "bothsidesism" on occasion), but rarely do i think there's much intentional ad-hominim or bad-faith arguing. ~a
[2020-08-11 14:31:24] - mig: 10 people? i like short and small meetings and HATE long meetings with lots of people. i mean doesn't everybody? ~a
[2020-08-11 14:26:49] - random aside: how many people is too much for a daily scrum? - mig
[2020-08-11 14:26:27] - And subsequently, Van Gundy's pushback of "well the US does bad things too!", looks pretty bad. - mig
[2020-08-11 14:11:14] - From harsh silencing (and almost firing) a GM for the heinous crime of a mundane tweet. To some pretty stupendous shit takes from Steve Kerr and Lebron James on playing dumb regarding China's record, it's kind of hard to take their current social justice branding very seriously. - mig
[2020-08-11 14:11:11] - Pierce: You were rude the last time you were here? And wasn't it within a decade? Welcome back! -Paul
[2020-08-11 14:08:47] - pierce: the big issue for me, is that Stan Van Gundy has it backwards, on who's doing the distracting. Like I get that American companies have to do business with China, and I don't think it's necessarily fair to dunk on companies on that alone, but the NBA has gone much further than that. - mig
[2020-08-10 22:04:01] - but that's a tough situation. I want to be able to discuss arguments only on their merits, but the only solution to bothsidesism I see is ad hominem, which is unsatisfying and easy (at scale) to defeat with a deep bench of disposable talking heads. how do we overcome the institutionally powerful actors who are funding bad-faith arguments? - pierce
[2020-08-10 22:03:32] - the question I ask myself when I see both-sides arguments is, "how likely is it that the critic would've been on the right side of the issue they're citing?" like, when trump rails against tiktok or the "china flu", do I think he actually cares about privacy/security practices of tech companies (*cough* Cambridge Analytica/DNC hack) or about protecting the public from epidemics (*cough* *gestures around wildly*)? no. - pierce
[2020-08-10 22:03:25] - mig: speaking of the difficulties of "tone" and "good faith" in discussing hard issues, I agree with you that the van gundy thing ("we did stuff wrong so we can't criticize them doing stuff wrong") wasn't a compelling argument on its own merits. but I think there's a "meta" problem: bad behavior deserves criticism, but criticizing others can distract from your own bad behavior. - pierce
[2020-08-10 21:36:04] - (also, hi again, everyone... sorry about being rude last time I was here, getting annoyed by the tone of discussion is a bit hypocritical of me, and I'm going to try to be better about that. and if I'm legitimately upset by something I see as a bad-faith argument, I'll try to take a bye on it instead of debating anyway and quitting for a decade in overall frustration) >_> - pierce
[2020-08-10 21:15:20] - so I'd take the NRA thing seriously, long story short. these aren't amateurs and they're not usually tilting at windmills. - pierce
[2020-08-10 21:14:40] - I have no specific evidence of this, but the AG might've believed that they were going to get something under oath in the trial and for some reason it didn't play out the way they'd expected. in the meantime, this same AG got a monetary settlement and dissolution out of the Trump Foundation for its misuse of charitable funds, which they explicitly cited when asked about precedent for the action they're taking against the NRA. - pierce
[2020-08-10 21:13:56] - ...and therefore was purged after 13 months instead of retained for the (I believe) seven years legally required of public companies - pierce
[2020-08-10 21:13:46] - note the emphasized phrases: I believe this was the suit resulting from the same investigation in which it was revealed that rex tillerson used the alias "Wayne Tracker" for climate change discussions instead of his official CEO email, which "accidentally" (and conveniently) wasn't linked to his role as CEO in the IT systems... - pierce
[2020-08-10 21:13:35] - but I don't think that was a slam dunk for exxonmobil, a different judge might've gone a different way with it. and while nothing surprisingly damning relating to securities fraud was revealed during the trial, the AG presumably suspected there was something more concrete there. - pierce
[2020-08-10 21:13:29] - mig: I wouldn't say the exxonmobil suit went nowhere. it seems like it was an overly-ambitious use of the specific law they were citing: that they'd misled investors by not revealing the full scope of how they were quantifying possible climate change policy changes. the suit lost basically because the judge didn't think they'd shown that investors actually cared about the difference between what they did and didn't reveal. - pierce
[2020-08-10 14:21:56] - i can do. (there is no try) ~a
[2020-08-10 14:15:58] - I can try. -Daniel
[2020-08-10 14:01:42] - Anybody into SC2 tonight? -Paul
[2020-08-10 12:41:20] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGXgElbqjmU&list=PLv3Oty9McvsaBh1WchYKPMOm2dTTbMXjQ&index=1 more diablo 2 remastered stuff. Looks like he has all the cinematics remastered too. - mig
[2020-08-07 18:40:58] - mig: Oh, yes, absolutely. Pretty much every main source of revenue for Disney (amusement parks, movies, cruises, live sports) has been slammed by COVID. Luckily, they just borrowed a ton of money to buy Fox as well (*sarcasm*). -Paul
[2020-08-07 18:39:06] - a: Right, they probably exclude certain things related to furloughs and shutting down the parks and whatnot. -Paul
[2020-08-07 18:36:23] - paul: I mean, it's not just income is negative, but that the future outlook for disney can't look great. The situations regarding parks and movie releases isn't going to get better any time soon. - mig
[2020-08-07 18:29:45] - paul: "Diluted EPS excluding certain items affecting comparability" if you look at the Diluted EPS *not* excluding blah blah blah, the eps is negative. ~a
[2020-08-07 18:26:56] - a: https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2020/08/q3-fy20-earnings.pdf Yeah, it's a little weird. Income was negative, but they had a positive EPS. I'll be honest, I'm not sure how that works.
-Paul[2020-08-07 17:54:38] - paul: sad trombone noise ~a
[2020-08-07 16:30:49] - https://twitter.com/realStanVG/status/1291348861227868161 I'm not sure "the us did some bad stuff too, so shut up on the NBA's silence on China's atrocities" is a particularly compelling argument. - mig
[2020-08-06 18:32:06] - huh sorry i didn't see miguel's post. ~a
[2020-08-06 18:02:33] - new york ag (i'll hazard a guess and say that they're probably a democrat) just filed to dissolve the nra. ~a
[2020-08-06 17:48:10] - for some further background on the NY AG thing, a while back this same person filed a suit against Exon Mobil for "defrauding" shareholders that ended up going nowhere. The hyperbole surrounding the charges in that case makes me skeptical that the NRA case has any merit. - mig
[2020-08-06 17:08:24] - mig: Biden is such a good example of how Democrats are often given the benefit of the doubt by the media. He routinely says stuff that, were a Republican to have said it, they would be lambasted as being racist, but for Biden it's just a goofy gaffe. Same thing with his sexual assault allegations (and tendency to smell women's hair). -Paul
[2020-08-06 16:41:16] - https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1291371568225017856?s=21 today in “why the fuck did we choose Biden.” - mig
[2020-08-06 16:20:00] - https://reason.com/2020/08/06/81-percent-of-black-americans-want-the-same-level-or-more-of-police-presence-gallup/ Curious if this complicates the narrative for anybody here in terms of our earlier discussions about defunding the police, ACAB, BLM, etc. -Paul
[2020-08-06 16:16:46] - What I really want to know if this is gross illegal misbehaviour vs. trying to pin them down on arcane technicalities. - mig
[2020-08-06 16:15:50] - paul: I agree, which is why I want to delve into the details. - mig
[2020-08-06 16:15:12] - mig: Without necessarily saying you are wrong about it being politically motivated, this does sound like it's more legit that it might initially seem. Apparently the NRA leadership has been abusing their tax exempt status by misappropriating funds for personal use? -Paul
[2020-08-06 16:12:52] - And expect similar retaliatory action on liberal non profits, where possible. - mig
[2020-08-06 16:11:39] - daniel: I'll delve into the details, but on the surface this screams "politically motivated." Moreover, if you want to motivate republican turnout this november, this is a really good way to do it, - mig
[2020-08-06 15:49:30] - Thats going to make some shit go boom on facebook / news / Fox / conservative heads. -Daniel
[2020-08-06 15:49:04] - Oh shit~ NY AG wants to dissolve the NRA. Whoa. -Daniel
[2020-08-06 14:07:51] - aaron: seems like a game that's really OOC for Devolver Digital, at least stylistically. - mig
[2020-08-06 13:49:15] - aaron: Michelle loves it. She was playing till about 2am last night. - mig
[2020-08-06 13:43:49] - But given it's a government position I'm not surprised. - img
[2020-08-06 13:42:45] - a: We think it's just the paperwork bureaucracy, she's accepted the position but they haven't got their shit together on their side so she can start (we don't even have a date for her to start yet). - mig
[2020-08-06 13:39:32] - mig: understood. sounds like churn, but i hear you it's an especially weird churn where she literally has a new job in mind. ~a
[2020-08-06 13:38:20] - paul: regardless, i'm still surprised by the sheer disconnect between the two numbers: those things you mentioned (churn and giving-up) could be higher now than ever before, but shouldn't like . . . halving (what i expected would be the) unemployment rate right? i seriously was expecting 25% unemployment and we're looking at like 10 or 11. ~a
[2020-08-06 13:37:56] - could be other strange situations. For ex: Michelle is in between jobs right now and we're not sure when she'll be able to start on her new job, so she's considering filing for unemployment if the wait is significant. - mig
[2020-08-06 13:36:30] - paul: correct on both. churn would cause this. also people giving up on looking for a jobs (probably) don't count towards unemployment, but still would have been / be considered under initial jobless claims. ~a
[2020-08-06 13:30:50] - a: Uh... doesn't one of them not count people who have given up looking for a job? Also, could it be churn? Lots of people losing their jobs still but other people getting new jobs? -Paul
[2020-08-06 13:17:46] - jobless claims and unemployment rate don't seem to be jiving with each-other. the unemployment rate is much lower than i thought it would be given the high initial jobless claims. is this normal? . . . it might explain why the stock market is so crazy-high given all the other bad signals. ~a
[2020-08-06 01:49:57] - daniel: its free on ps plus. - mig
[2020-08-05 21:51:29] - aaron: I might try to pick it up if it goes on sale at some point (and still has a player base but not sure I want to pay full for it. -Daniel
[2020-08-05 21:18:12] - if anybody ends up getting Fall Guys on steam and wants to team up let me know. it looks like silly fun - aaron
[2020-08-05 18:06:04] - "As well as serving as the top official for Arlington County's branch of the GOP, Loposser works as a legislative aid for state Del. Michael J. Webert (R)" update. his address/phone number are also online. i don't know why people would use their legal name to dox people: seems like a great way to get doxed! ~a
[2020-08-05 14:30:46] - a: Honestly it all comes back to 2016. The Dem establishment basically going all in on Clinton really made this year's field really weak and green, to the point where they really had no other palatable options other than Biden (who is still there reluctantly). - mig
[2020-08-05 14:21:47] - a: I never thought it was! I can't believe the Democrats went with him. I haven't seen such a bad candidate since the last election.
-Paul[2020-08-05 14:16:56] - ugh biden is so fucking old. why did we ever think this was a good idea . . . ~a
[2020-08-05 14:15:38] - paul: You're probably right. For all the talk about Trump's thin skin, Biden seems to get cranky really easily when challenged in the slightest. The problem is if the debates end up happening, it's going to look real bad for whoever bails out. - mig
[2020-08-05 14:13:00] - mig: It'll be really interesting to see if there are any actual debates this year. I wouldn't be shocked if there weren't. Biden's campaign might play it safe considering his big lead. What does he have to gain from debating? I think there's a very real concern that Trump might wipe the floor with Biden. -Paul
[2020-08-05 14:06:52] - https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/05/politics/joe-biden-2020-cognitive-test/index.html this is going to be the most comical presidential debates in history or the most cringy, or maybe .. both. - mig
[2020-08-05 05:03:06] - a: I think that option only exists for 65+ -- Xpovos
[2020-08-04 19:51:30] - a: I think I signed up for absentee for November, but I honestly can't remember.
-Paul[2020-08-04 19:51:29] - a: nice! -Daniel
[2020-08-04 19:43:35] - i just signed up for mail-in voting in virginia for the remainder of 2020. it was pretty easy. i kinda wish i could sign up for it "forever", but they didn't have that as an option. ~a
[2020-08-04 18:34:48] - paul: well, if the people there were paying actual market prices for insurance on those properties, I think you'd see much less waterfront property. - mig
[2020-08-04 17:44:42] - a: My guess is not as much as you might think. Lots of water-front property is already prone to things like flooding and hurricanes, so I don't think the fear of global warming is going to stop many people. -Paul
[2020-08-04 17:30:43] - i wonder if real-estate in colder environments and (more importantly) far away from low-elevation bodies water will eventually start to see some increase. ~a
[2020-08-04 17:29:16] - optimism ~a
[2020-08-04 17:27:44] - a: Heh, yeah, I think I felt like I missed it at like $30.
-Paul[2020-08-04 17:07:43] - paul: oof . . . don't look at amd. 50x in 5 years. that's +120%/year on a ridiculously long timeline. on the 5y timeline, it's killing tsla, and shop, and sq, and nvda. ~a
[2020-08-04 16:41:15] - I went heavy international also because I was willing to take on the additional risk for bigger gains, but so far I've just taken on the bigger risk for much worse gains.
-Paul[2020-08-04 16:38:50] - a: I guess because as bad as we think the US has been managed, most other countries are managed worse? -Paul
[2020-08-04 16:38:30] - a: Ugh, tell me about it. My vanguard funds are overweight international and emerging markets (to offset the domestic bias of my individual stocks... although that is changing some) and that has weighed down that portfolio a ton. -Paul
[2020-08-04 16:20:45] - daniel: for a scale of the problem, 40% of vanguard 2040/vforx equities are from vtiax (though technically not the admiral version). vtiax's inception is 2010, and has a *horrible* history. ~a
[2020-08-04 16:19:37] - paul/daniel: i'd like to talk about international stock history. why have they been so shitty? why have international stocks so badly under-performed the US markets for the last . . . FOREVER? it' not even a small difference. it's like around 10%/year (us) vs 1%/year (international)! pick any time-window. will this terrible trend continue? ~a
[2020-08-04 14:12:47] - for "an American company". i dunno, it was your hypothetical man, don't ask me!
~a[2020-08-04 14:07:21] - a: Of the message board? Or of the country? -Paul
[2020-08-04 02:41:01] - i vote paul should become the chief diversity officer. ~a
[2020-08-03 23:29:07] - a: I don't have an intention at all in this. I don't have a chief diversity officer. -Paul
[2020-08-03 23:28:43] - a: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/10/7/20880318/meatless-meat-mainstream-backlash-impossible-burger Protein and fiber and carbs aren't everything, though. -Paul
[2020-08-03 21:23:25] - paul: appropriate? it would depend, of course, but unless it's a really small company, it seems like you could easily do "better". unless your intention is to thumb your nose at the whole goal. would that be your intention? ~a
[2020-08-03 21:21:43] - paul: "Impossible Burgers are significantly lower in protein than beef-based burgers, yet they contain more fiber. Impossible Burgers are also higher in fat and contain carbohydrates, while beef burgers don't contain any carbs" link ~a
[2020-08-03 21:19:21] - a: I've got some limited Beyond and Impossible foods. As veggie burgers go, they are a slight improvement (Impossible > Beyond) but I don't know if I would ever confuse them for the real thing or prefer them on a purely taste basis. If I could be convinced they were healthier, then maybe. -Paul
[2020-08-03 21:18:06] - Random question: Would it ever be appropriate for an American company to hire a straight white male as a "chief diversity officer"? How about if the person fits 2 out of 3? -Paul
[2020-08-03 20:41:30] - paul: i always get the impossible burger if i'm at a place that sells them. i'll pick it over fast-food beef or chicken any day. bynd i've eaten fewer times, so i don't think i have an opinion yet on the taste. i'm not sure i'll ever stop eating meat (foreseeable future), but i'd eat impossible / bynd once per week definitely. ~a
[2020-08-03 20:17:01] - a: I want to see the graph for "taste".
-Paul[2020-08-03 19:54:56] - bynd vs beef. now lets see the graph for "earnings". ~a
[2020-08-03 19:54:34] - paul: i don't know what year it is. 2020? not sure. ~a
[2020-08-03 19:43:45] - Whoa, what year is that? The Red Sox starting rotation is that bad? I know I haven't followed MLB as closely lately, but don't they have Chris Sale and David Price? -Paul
[2020-08-03 19:40:51] - TOO LATE? I get those confused. -Daniel
[2020-08-03 19:40:10] - TO LATE!
[2020-08-03 19:39:40] - wow. in my head it was mlb. please don't make fun of me. ~a
[2020-08-03 19:39:24] - a: mlb chart. -Daniel
[2020-08-03 19:27:09] - found this nba chart on reddit, and thought, maybe there are some sports people here that would like it. ~a
[2020-08-03 19:22:14] - Yeah, okay, sounds like we didn't have a good way of measuring it. Even the Xbox Live Gold comparison is iffy, as Microsoft has started rebranding stuff and shifting to game pass. -Paul
[2020-08-03 19:11:06] - paul: i remember thinking that onlive was dumb. i'll assume stadia is basically onlive. ~a
[2020-08-03 19:08:28] - paul: "I don't know exactly how to measure it, but I will put 5 bits down saying that Stadia won't be a big deal 2 years from now. Maybe not that it is shut down, but that it hasn't revolutionized the gaming industry and few people use it. Maybe a comparison of Xbox Live Gold subscribers to paid Stadia subscribers?" nobody bid on your bet. ~a
[2020-08-03 19:06:12] - paul: "paul: i have no opinion of stadia. i won't make that bet, try xpovos. ~a" ~a
[2020-08-03 19:05:09] - Paul: I had a series of pro-Stadia posts immediately post announcement, but it never resulted in a bet, that I recall. I simply said that Alphabet stock would benefit from Stadia, and acknowledge that it would be basically impossible to disentangle the benefit of Stadia from other Alphabet projects. -- Xpovos
[2020-08-03 18:17:42] - Did I not have a bet about Google Stadia with anybody? I thought I made a bet about how I thought Google would shut it down... -Paul
[2020-08-03 17:18:40] - daniel: maybe players aren't giving him shit, but the sports media certainly is. - mig
[2020-08-03 17:11:18] - no. ~a
[2020-08-03 17:11:15] - no. ~o
[2020-08-03 17:11:08] - a: Does he read the message board? -Paul
[2020-08-03 16:44:30] - dewey: when can you do sc2 this week? ~a
[2020-08-03 16:25:10] - paul: You going to make dewey plan sc2 this week?
-Daniel[2020-08-03 16:15:36] - a: JMIA: I've never seen a company go from "maybe I should buy some more shares while it seems possibly low" to "wow, no way I am touching that at this price" in like 2 weeks before.
-Paul[2020-08-03 16:13:32] - Daniel: Yeah, I saw Jonathan Isaac didn't kneel and some sports opinion people had some thoughts about that (also didn't wear the "Black Lives Matter" shirt). That takes some balls. Did you see Harden had his thin blue line / blue lives matter mask bruhaha? -Paul
[2020-08-03 15:55:50] - Also Harden didn't put a msg or other thing on his jersey - just stuck with Harden. So just on the point of being allowed to go a different way and not have to join it seems to be ok. -Daniel
[2020-08-03 15:54:29] - There was a player (Jonathon Issac for the Magic) who didn't kneel during the anthem adn was the only player. Non of the other players gave him shit about it though. So there is that. Also Pop didn't kneel either. So some signs that you don't have to conform. -Daniel
[2020-08-03 15:53:30] - Paul: Yeah I don't think we ever see an uncut version from atheletes like that. It would be interesting but hard to imagine that someone somewhere doesn't say something stupid and its just not worth putting that out there and then saying I LEARNED FROM IT or whatever. I do agree that I would imagine lots of people would have trouble really going against the grain in big groups like that. -Daniel
[2020-08-03 14:47:34] - Daniel: I do wonder about having the group discussion, though. Not saying it's bad, but I wonder if some people feel pressured versus just letting everybody make their own decision at the time. If this kind of discussion happened at my work with my coworkers... I wouldn't feel comfortable speaking against any of the opinions expressed. -Paul
[2020-08-03 14:45:52] - Daniel: Really drives home how international the 76ers are. Feels like it is sometimes easy to forget how many players aren't even from the US. There were a lot of weird cuts, though. I feel like truly seeing how the sausage was made would mean to see an uncut version. Wonder what was left on the floor. -Paul
[2020-08-02 02:18:55] - https://youtu.be/FNELyYijVMA?t=471 From there to the end is another meeting of the 76'ers talking about their ideas for what they want to do with their attention politically. I find it interesting in a bit of how the sausage is made type of way where they are trying to figure out what their message is and how they are going to try and convey it. -Daniel
[2020-08-01 02:54:34] - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trader-joes-says-no-changing-ethnic-sounding-label-names-rcna63 Call me crazy, but I think this could be a sign that the pendulum is starting swing back the other way... -Paul
[2020-07-31 19:03:30] - a: But if they have heard their state has outbreaks, they might be more prone to wearing one. -Paul
[2020-07-31 19:03:13] - a: Fair. I was just thinking of one thing I heard about how if you map out the places where people are most wearing masks... it tends to correlate with places that are having outbreaks, which actually makes some sense: People might be following the news and if they think they are in a safe area, are not taking things seriously like wearing a mask... -Paul
[2020-07-31 18:14:23] - paul: i agree with everything you said, but noticed one thing about the very last part "not seeing anybody around you sick". i think this will happen anyways. even living right next to dc, and knowing people who live right next to manhattan, i still don't know anybody who has had it. "only" 5m people have caught it (and been tested) in the united states. ~a
[2020-07-31 17:27:20] - a: Heck, it might have even resulted in less people thinking this all is a hoax. Probably easy to grumble and look into conspiracy theories if you are being told to lock down despite not seeing anybody around you sick. -Paul
[2020-07-31 17:25:59] - a: No, I am not sure at all, hence why I was just wondering. I'm sure locking down nationwide > locking down only NYC in that it probably did help a little, but I am also fairly certain people have a finite patience for locking down and that we would be seeing more compliance now if not everybody had been locked down for 4+ months now. -Paul
[2020-07-31 16:58:35] - i'm not sure locking down the whole country even though there were only hotspots in new york was not the recommended thing to do (even with hindsight). are you sure we did the wrong thing there? being "sick" of lock-downs is a problem, but i also feel like being "sick" of a ventalator down the throat is also a problem. ~a
[2020-07-31 16:53:28] - a: Like early on, NYC was the major hot spot while much of the rest of the country wasn't having as much of a problem. Yet we locked down everywhere. Now we have hot spots popping up in a bunch of states but people are already sick of lockdowns and so maybe not staying home as much as before. -Paul
[2020-07-31 16:51:28] - a: Without commenting on the motivations for shifting responsibility to the states, I do wonder what the proper balance is in terms of whether the federal government or state governments should handle most of the response. I feel like part of our problem has been dealing with this as a national problem when more localized responses might make more sense. -Paul
[2020-07-31 14:57:31] - sounds about right. 51 september-11ths worth of people have died. ~a
[2020-07-31 13:27:26] - which laws? ~a
[2020-07-31 12:30:16] - Honestly, I would rather "defund" the police by having less frivolous laws rather than adding yet another bureaucratic layer of "kind of sort of police" on top of the current police force. - mig
[2020-07-31 12:26:33] - daniel: In theory, that sounds nice. Bowser does seem like she wants actual force behind the enforcement of mask wearing though. - mig
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