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[2021-03-03 19:06:48] - Daniel: Especially with regards to the people who took a look at Trump and the Republicans and Biden and the Democrats and decided that somehow Trump and the Republicans were the lesser of two evils. -Paul
[2021-03-03 19:05:59] - Daniel: Apparently Facebook doesn't allow copying a link to specific posts? Or I am too much of an idiot to figure it out. It was from November 7th, right after the election, and I basically suggested (after congratulating my liberal friends on their victory) that maybe the slim margins against somebody as horrible as Trump should be a little humbling. -Paul
[2021-03-03 18:33:25] - Not in a bad way - just was funny to me to have some many elements that seemed potentially interesting / their own discussion all mushed up. -Daniel
[2021-03-03 18:32:20] - That is like a clickbait message board post. I didn't see your facebook post, I don't know who Bjorn is and comparing woke democrats to Trump all in one statement! -Daniel
[2021-03-03 17:39:01] - https://reason.com/2021/03/03/woke-excess-democratic-party-trump-political-correctness/ If anybody on Facebook saw my super long comment thread with Matt Herndon that somehow devolved into a debate over how wrong Bjorn Lomborg is about climate change... this is what I was initially referring to. -Paul
[2021-03-03 16:56:04] - https://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-books-Amazon/zgbs/books 9 of the top 10 are Dr. Seuss. I assume this is because of the banning / canceling of a few of his books yesterday, but do you think it's in support of the canceling or against it or something else? -Paul
[2021-03-03 15:23:35] - daniel: i've been using cfiresim closed source and cfiresim open source (source) to test out plans. ~a
[2021-03-03 15:22:00] - daniel: i'm just now starting to figure out the bond tent, so i'm totally not sure. i've spent some time looking at a long retirement: maybe as long as 45 years? if so, the bond allocation might get up to 55%, then after 18 years get down to ~0%. this is very speculative, and i'm still learning/tuning/etc. ~a
[2021-03-03 15:17:18] - a: So then I guess another related question is do you have a target for when you want to retire? And how high % wise are you going to aim for with your bond % (top of tent)? -Daniel
[2021-03-03 15:09:25] - daniel: a bond tent is a two dimensional shape: there's the bond rate at retirement (high), then you have the bond rate for later retirement (low), and finally there's how quickly you go from one rate to the other. the three of those numbers depend on how long retirement will be. how long will your retirement be? 35 years? 45 years? which? (if you're worried about living too long, i do not: geriatric spending often goes way down). ~a
[2021-03-03 15:02:36] - paul: the former. as you look at the monitor/tv. ~a
[2021-03-03 14:29:48] - For stereo computer (or TV) speakers, do you consider the "left" channel to be the speaker on your left side as you look at the monitor? Or is it the speaker on the left side if you are the monitor looking back at the person? -Paul
[2021-03-03 05:31:32] - Also tenting as a verb is weird to type. -Daniel
[2021-03-03 05:31:23] - a: when you talk about a bond tent in your future (pretty sure you have) how high are you thinking of going with bonds in your allocation? 70% bonds at retirement? 50%? 35%? 20%? I've been looking into it and there doesn't seem to be great concensus on bond tents being the definite way to go, though they do definitely have support. Also I didn't see any type of concensus on how high to tent for those that were tenting. -Daniel
[2021-03-02 20:06:07] - a: Two months after the end of the 2020 Fantasy Investing season and I am crushing Dewey now. -Paul
[2021-03-02 15:10:26] - Daniel: I have no idea how it works either. -Paul
[2021-03-02 15:10:18] - a: I don't know, might come with some strings attached. -Paul
[2021-03-02 15:00:53] - Paul: Is there a downside / reason not to? I have no idea how all that works. -Daniel
[2021-03-02 14:51:08] - why wouldn't you? seems like a fun move. ~a
[2021-03-02 14:48:48] - a: You think so? -Paul
[2021-03-02 14:07:14] - paul: do it. ~a
[2021-03-02 14:05:13] - a: I honestly don't know. I had vaguely heard of it before but somebody from there reached out yesterday to discuss having my content syndicated. -Paul
[2021-03-02 13:03:04] - paul: their cheapest paid service is $1000/year? Yikes. I guess if you're getting this instead of a financial advisor that price looks good. ~a
[2021-03-02 12:59:39] - paul: what is it? it's like the motley fool? ~a
[2021-03-02 02:48:22] - a: It has a pending page it looks like.
-Paul[2021-03-01 22:09:58] - Paul: I am vaguely aware of https://bigbangtheory.fandom.com/wiki/Bazinga. Benzinga is a nope for me. -Daniel
[2021-03-01 21:22:32] - it doesn't even have a wikipedia article? ~a
[2021-03-01 21:16:36] - nope. i haven't even heard about it. ~a
[2021-03-01 21:15:50] - Random question, but is anybody here familiar with Benzinga beyond the "I think I've heard of it" level? -Paul
[2021-03-01 20:35:47] - mig: "too many for me to be comfortable with the idea" how many is that and how many would you be comfortable with? ~a
[2021-03-01 20:33:52] - a: Would be an effective use of anchoring for sure if that happened. -Paul
[2021-03-01 20:33:51] - a: I would say, too many for me to be comfortable with the idea. - mig
[2021-03-01 20:04:17] - i wonder if the $15 was a ruse to get a different increase to the minimum wage. seems like high-stakes poker, but i sometimes wonder how often a bill gets proposed to affect level-setting happens. if republicans are a razors edge away from seeing a $15 minimum wage today, they might balk less about a $12 minimum wage proposal tomorrow. ~a
[2021-03-01 19:57:04] - paul: some of them. ~a
[2021-03-01 19:56:52] - a: Do you think it would have a negative effect on the survival of those businesses going forward? -Paul
[2021-03-01 19:55:24] - paul: yep. ~a
[2021-03-01 19:55:02] - a: You are pro $15 minimum wage even at this moment in time when tons of small and mid-sized businesses are struggling? -Paul
[2021-03-01 19:54:26] - Daniel: On the WaPo? I think I generally agree with his premise, but wasn't a big fan of his delivery. It felt both unconvincing AND not made with enough conviction. I haven't read any of Kendi's stuff, so it's kinda unfair of me to pass judgement, but everything I've heard about his stuff makes me think I wouldn't agree with it. -Paul
[2021-03-01 19:54:00] - paul: no idea what an equity push is, but you know my thoughts on the wealth tax (boo). on the other hand, i'm pro-$15 federal minimum wage. i'm sad it didn't pass. ~a
[2021-03-01 19:52:49] - a: I shouldn't be, but I'm a tiny bit surprised the progressives aren't giving Biden a bit more of a honeymoon before piling on with the wealth taxes and $15 minimum wages and equity pushes and whatnot. -Paul
[2021-03-01 19:41:52] - Paul: what are your thoughts on it? I only know Kendi from one thing last fall where I got in a debate with my sister. -Daniel
[2021-03-01 19:41:28] - daniel: yah. i did notice janet yellen: "very difficult implementation problems."
~a[2021-03-01 19:40:39] - a: We'll see. I think you guys made strong points against it when it came up. Maybe they have better ideas than I do! -Daniel
[2021-03-01 19:34:55] - daniel: probably won't pass, but your thing is getting more press. ~a
[2021-03-01 19:30:14] - Daniel: Finished the WaPo article too. Again, I'm curious of your thoughts. Were you familiar with Kendi's work in the past? -Paul
[2021-03-01 18:56:00] - Paul: I think both to some degree. I think Kanoute can be bothered about bias / interactions with police while also recognizing what led to it without labeling folks as racist. I think the school went through a mostly reasonable process though probably should have tried to do more at the end but probably just wanted to let it drop I guess. -Daniel
[2021-03-01 18:41:01] - Daniel: Do you think Oumou Kanoute or the school administration was in the wrong for how they handled things? -Paul
[2021-03-01 18:39:50] - a: Ah, okay. I figured it was a ticker, but for some reason my google-fu was failing me. I guess because Canadian tickers aren't "real".
-Paul[2021-03-01 18:20:18] - -Daniel
[2021-03-01 18:20:15] - I thought the Smith article shows a definite case of things going "to far". I do think that POC's have different interactions with police and that is definitely a thing but I don't think this instance seems to support any racist motivations that I can tell. Did bias play a part? I think there are convincing arguments made elsewhere that it probably plays a factor but still. When people are having trouble getting a new job it seems bad.
[2021-03-01 18:10:38] - also in case you didn't know, "to" refers to toronto. it's a canadian ticker symbol. ~a
[2021-03-01 18:08:15] - paul: we talked about it a few weeks ago. here. i thought you responded to it but maybe i misunderstood. it's a ticker for one of the three(ish) new bitcoin etfs. ~a
[2021-03-01 18:06:05] - a: I don't even know what btcc-u.to is. A domain? A ticker? Something else? -Paul
[2021-03-01 17:55:59] - one nice thing is that the expense ratio is 0.
but, there are some issues: you can't have partial shares, so it wouldn't work well if you tried to include amzn or goog. also rebalancing might be weird? ~a[2021-03-01 17:53:22] - huh, so that's cool. fidelity has this concept they call a "basket". basically it's a selection of ticker symbols that it lets you track as a single item: think of it like a "virtual" etf. (if your trading fees are $0, then) you can just buy and sell it like a single stock. its a weird concept . . . i think i like it. ~a
[2021-03-01 17:41:45] - it kills me that i still can't buy btcc-u.to . . . fucking racism. ~a
[2021-03-01 17:39:42] - yah. ~a
[2021-03-01 17:39:28] - a: Okay, it's a short year, but there are still many months left in it.
-Paul[2021-03-01 17:38:15] - Daniel: Surprisingly, I seem to be able to read both your articles. Finished the NYT one (I had heard it mentioned on a podcast too). Curious your thoughts. -Paul
[2021-03-01 17:38:03] - paul: technically its shorter than average. ~a
[2021-03-01 17:37:45] - a: Also, congrats on second, but it's a long year. -Paul
[2021-03-01 17:37:13] - a: Yes, he entered late, and that was my way of shaming him.
-Paul[2021-03-01 16:28:34] - paul: second place. in the challenge, why is dewey not sorted in alphabetically? did he enter late, or something? ~a
[2021-02-28 19:51:47] - Though they both are on paywall sites so not sure - maybe they are on other sites or discussed on other sites? -Daniel
[2021-02-28 19:51:20] - And https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/not-all-anti-racist-ideas-are-good-ones-the-left-isnt-being-honest-about-this/2021/02/22/c83d4870-7179-11eb-b8a9-b9467510 was a different article Andrea sent me which I thought was interesting and would be of interest. -Daniel
[2021-02-28 19:50:53] - On a different note here is the article I mentioned during SC2 the other night: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/24/us/smith-college-race.html -Daniel
[2021-02-28 19:50:34] - Paul: I don't know what all Cruz could have done or not done entirely but as a specific example w/o trying to draw any other value judgements AOC raised money and volunteered at a soup kitchen. The volunteering is always hard to judge its impact / benefit but she raised like 3 million for TX charities. -Daniel
[2021-02-28 13:42:01] - "what exactly is a Senator supposed to do in this instance?" i've heard that question a lot. the obvious answer is: shit tons of stuff. he can ask his (mostly rich) donors to donate money for blankets. he can work with federal agencies like fema to coordinate support. he can discuss details with the presidential administration. even though he's not in charge of local government, his job rarely matters more than at times like this. ~a
[2021-02-28 03:15:32] - Daniel: The levees breaking are a good distinction. I didn't know they were a federal government responsibility. Still, that was probably not done on GWB's watch, right? -Paul
[2021-02-28 03:14:22] - a: The disconnecting Texas from the power grid is interesting, though. I guess I need to read more about that. I heard a lot of blame about Texas' power grid, but don't really know the specifics. I'm sympathetic to Texas not really being prepared for a freak winter storm, though. -Paul
[2021-02-28 03:13:00] - a: I guess. I get the political optics for Cruz are bad, but... what exactly is a Senator supposed to do in this instance? He's not even in charge of local government, but in charge of representing Texas in the federal government. -Paul
[2021-02-26 20:13:52] - one of our discussions about katrina (2010) had this gem: "I agree with Paul, but I also recently had a lobotomy" ~a
[2021-02-26 20:04:40] - daniel: yeah, i didn't even realize that. the more i think about, it the more i think: there's like a bunch of material differences between katrina->gwb vs texas->biden. ~a
[2021-02-26 20:00:28] - Its been awhile since Katrina so I may not be remembering all this directly but I think it was levee failures which was a fed responsibility and the response afterwards for which he got criticism. TX power is very directly controlled by our state and not fed (thats like the underlying point of all of this) and TX is very heavily R run. -Daniel
[2021-02-26 19:59:08] - it's a little harder to say "joe biden doesn't care about white people". i mean, he's white. and he obviously cares about them, as a moderate democrat that does moderate democrat things. ~a
[2021-02-26 19:56:52] - paul: there's also kanye west. i don't know about you guys, but i didn't know that george bush was to be blamed for katrina until "george bush doesn't care about black people" from kanye west. kinda a "curve ball" moment in my opinion. ~a
[2021-02-26 19:54:23] - paul: other political answer: the fact that republicans engineered this failure doesn't help things (disconnecting texas from the rest of the power grid). and that other republicans, who aren't ted cruz, said stupid shit, about how texans want this, during the disaster, also keep people from focusing their ire biden. ~a
[2021-02-26 19:48:21] - paul: political answer: cruz stole the news-cycle (multiple of them) with his many bad moves. even if we wanted to blame biden on this (which would be hard given other specifics), we can't because we already have a convenient scapegoat that made huge mistakes. i mean, like duh, never take a vacation when your constituents are going through a major shitstorm. also don't blame it on your kid. also don't get caught doing these things. ~a
[2021-02-26 19:22:18] - I'm sure there's a good reason (again, not being sarcastic!), and frankly I feel like that's how it generally should be (blaming the local governors and such more than the President), but it just seemed striking to me. -Paul
[2021-02-26 19:21:11] - Totally honest, not at all sarcastic question: Years ago, when Katrina hit, it made national news and the story was all about the incompetence of the President, GWB. With the recent Texas snowstorm, it also made national news but now the story was all about Cruz taking a vacation? Is there a reason the blame seems to be falling on everybody bit Biden? -Paul
[2021-02-26 19:18:33] - Daniel: "One approach seeks to narrow the range by trading off highs (and lows) and the other allows for higher (and lower)" Yes, this is a much better way of saying what I was trying to say. I guess my thinking is that my retirement number already feels like it has some huge margins of error, so I don't see much point to narrowing the range of outcomes to that number. -Paul
[2021-02-26 15:25:33] - i understand the "probabilities" discussion: the output of every back-testing i've looked at is always "probabilities". how many of the scenarios ended in success? but, it's *not* merely safer returns vs high early returns overcoming a drop. it's strictly safer, full stop. changing the inputs, by working longer, can definitely overcome that difference, so i guess that's fair. ~a
[2021-02-26 15:21:21] - dude a bird just hit the window right by my head. scared the fuck outta me. ~a
[2021-02-26 15:07:51] - So for her I don't think an extra year or two (or more?) is a big 'price'. -Daniel
[2021-02-26 15:07:42] - ok understood. ~a
[2021-02-26 15:07:14] - a: Depends how much one likes their job / working. Andrea and I talk about retiring early but there is a very low chance Andrea actually fully retires. She needs / wants to be productive in some capacity so even if its a different thing that pays less or something I don't think she will just stop. -Daniel
[2021-02-26 15:03:56] - daniel: his plan requires working an extra year. do you consider that a fair trade? ~a
[2021-02-26 15:03:23] - I think Paul's theory is right that its all probabilities and the trade off he is making but I think there is a larger range of outcomes in his approach which is the point. One approach seeks to narrow the range by trading off highs (and lows) and the other allows for higher (and lower). -Daniel
[2021-02-26 15:01:47] - paul: "I thought it was addressing the risk" you're totally right. what's funny is i typed out and deleted three long messages before that one, and after i hit <enter>, i was like "fuck, that's not right either". i'll stick to my old tried and true line: "i'm not going to work an extra year for that, and i'm not sure a year is enough anyways" ~a
[2021-02-26 14:57:24] - a: "this ignores the sequence of returns risk" I thought it was addressing the risk. I mean, nothing is certain. It's all probabilities. You're hoping that trading some risk for "safer" returns will protect you, whereas I am hoping that keeping that risk for higher returns will offset an early drop. -Paul
[2021-02-26 14:45:23] - paul: "the added bonus with my plan is (likely) more money as well" this ignores the sequence of returns risk: your plan is likely more money. but it's at the expense of an increased chance of failure. without knowing details, i'm not sure if a year is enough to overcome the difference (in the chance of failure). but even if it were, i personally wouldn't work an extra year for that? ~a
[2021-02-26 14:24:36] - Pierce: Why disillusioned? -Paul
[2021-02-26 14:20:14] - a: Well, if we're just deciding between "should you do a bond tent or work a year longer" then sure, I guess the bond tent sounds more appealing. But the added bonus with my plan is (likely) more money as well. It goes back to the theory of emergency funds vs investing it all, right? -Paul
[2021-02-26 13:44:35] - pierce: by "fucking weird" you mean, "weird coincidence" not "definitely a conspiracy", right? ~a
[2021-02-26 13:44:26] - pierce: "I feel very disillusioned" don't. the stock market is very "brass tacks". (it's very dark, but) "only" half a million people have died and this isn't the black death. if it becomes obvious to traders that the engine of our economy will probably eventually recover, then the stock market indexes can rebound immediately, even if things worsen on the ground. the stock market is always attempting to predict the future. ~a
[2021-02-25 23:34:14] - and the fed definitely had a hand in that recovery, like their March 23rd announcement that coincided with a complete reversal of the crash (I've mentioned it before, but it's so fucking weird to me that they turned at exactly the point that prevented those indices from closing lower than they were the day Trump became president-elect) - pierce
[2021-02-25 23:33:29] - more to the point under discussion, though, with regards to hyperinflation or similar concerns: to what extent is monetary policy tied to the reality "on the ground" for people like us? I feel very disillusioned by how quickly the market (as measured by popular indices like the S&P 500 or the DJIA) recovered from the crash in march and how closely it returned to its previous trajectory even as the pandemic worsened. - pierce
[2021-02-25 22:53:52] - reposting this as a counterpoint, https://i.redd.it/ihrrbh34z4961.png
- pierce[2021-02-25 20:49:28] - paul: if you had to decide between pushing your retirement out by, say two years, and a bond tent plan: would you still pick pushing your retirement out two years? it seems like such a no-brainer to me, but maybe i'm not seeing the whole pov. (i picked the two years based on back-testing: i had to save an extra 1.5m if i got rid of bonds entirely, only 600k if i just got rid of the tent). ~a
[2021-02-25 17:53:55] - "push out your retirement by one more year" i'm not sure one more year is as good as a bond tent, but it probably depends on specifics (what swr, equity ratios, how long retirement, etc). ~a
[2021-02-25 17:47:53] - a: Helps in two ways: You get one more year of contributing to your savings and compounding AND one less year of retirement spending.
-Paul[2021-02-25 17:47:09] - a: And my "something" to try to decrease the situation would be to just push out your retirement by one more year or whatever to go above and beyond with your savings. If you think you need $2 million for retirement and you hit it in 2030, then retire at 2031 with $2.2 million or whatever saved up. -Paul
[2021-02-25 17:45:42] - a: In my mind, it makes more sense here though. We're by definition talking about a problem that might come up early in retirement. At that point, you definitely have the money to deal with it short term AND in theory are young enough to adapt (go back to work, reduce early withdrawals, etc). -Paul
[2021-02-25 17:45:39] - paul: "Ironically, this seems to be a bit of a reverse of our opinions on emergency funds" it is. i think my opinion on emergency funds don't apply to retirement. but i do think often about how retirement and long-term-unemployment are similar in a lot a ways. ~a
[2021-02-25 17:44:22] - a: "but i'd prefer to do "something" to decrease the chance of this situation, if i can" Understood and agreed. Ironically, this seems to be a bit of a reverse of our opinions on emergency funds. You seem to prefer having some "safer" money in bonds whereas I prefer just keeping the foot on the gas and all in equities and deal with problems if they come up. -Paul
[2021-02-25 17:24:05] - though the 10% in the example again feels like a ton. -Daniel
[2021-02-25 17:23:40] - a: I also pushed back on 4 being too high for me so we were going to settle on one for the moment but I was trying to read more about it to figure out how I felt about it. https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-sequence-of-return-risk-with-bucket-strategies-vs-a-total-return-rebalancing-approach/ makes a case for having some and just rebalancing as a way to use it which makes sense to me. -Daniel
[2021-02-25 17:19:34] - oof. yikes that's crazy high. 4 years is something like 16% cash. there's no way i'd consider that. 1 year *maybe* i'd consider, since a lot of financial calculators use "yearly" as your withdrawal method (firecalc.com for instance) ~a
[2021-02-25 17:17:44] - She suggested 1 - 4 years of living expenses. I was reading about it online and it seems a thing where some people definitely have large cash cushions. -Daniel
[2021-02-25 17:08:23] - paul: "frugally in early years or even going back to work" i will always like this as an option, but i'd prefer to do "something" to decrease the chance of this situation, if i can. ~a
[2021-02-25 17:06:51] - Daniel: I've thought about it some, and don't really like the idea of a significant cash cushion. I get the risk of sequence of return, but my hope is to retire with enough cushion to offset any problems with early market drops. If not? Then maybe adapt by living more frugally in early years or even going back to work. Lots of optionality. -Paul
[2021-02-25 17:06:25] - daniel: what percentage in cash did your financial planner suggest for first part of retirement? ~a
[2021-02-25 17:02:40] - daniel: i plan to include cash (money markets) into my retirement simulator, but have not done that yet. ~a
[2021-02-25 17:02:14] - daniel: "bond tent idea eliminating a need to have actual cash" short answer: yes. longer answer: even in the beginning of retirement, i will have very low amounts of cash (more than 0%, and much less than 1%). there are times where cash is useful, in the short-term, but only rarely see last graph (i made the last graph). ~a
[2021-02-25 16:57:24] - understood, thanks! ~a
[2021-02-25 16:56:57] - I think I just cruised around https://www.garrettplanningnetwork.com/ looking through their listings. I originally was looking in San Antonio but realized especially with the pandemic that was silly so expanded to just wherever. We ended up with a lady in NC. I would just go read websites / bios / etc to try and find someone who seemed in the right ballpark. -Daniel
[2021-02-25 16:52:29] - a: I think I'm generally pro the idea of a bond tent. Specifically for cash though are you thinking of the bond tent idea eliminating a need to have actual cash (or cash equivalents)? -Daniel
[2021-02-25 16:49:27] - daniel: i use these two images to base most of my thoughts on bond tent and sequence of returns risk: image 1 and image 2 (both from fiphysician.com). ~a
[2021-02-25 16:46:42] - daniel: how did you find a financial planner. i'm thinking of hiring a financial planner in the next few years. ~a
[2021-02-25 16:46:18] - daniel: "Is this something you guys have though about any?" meeee. whenever i talk about "bond tent" its because i'm very focused on "sequence of return risk". any fire-calculator (back tester) will include the sequence of return risk, but ironically, i don't see much talk there about a bond tent. ~a
[2021-02-25 16:41:48] - But its hard to judge that against losses early on in retirement due to bad years immediately following retirement. -Daniel
[2021-02-25 16:41:22] - On a non direct inflation topic (though maybe related in some ways) I had a call with a financial planner yesterday and one of the topics was the amount of cash cushion to have for the first part of retirement to try and avoid sequence of return risk. Is this something you guys have though about any? I'm not sure how I feel about it yet since it seems to have a large opportunity cost to have a large chunk of cash not doing anything.-Daniel
[2021-02-25 16:40:52] - i think you mentioned your cost-basis was like 90 (per share)? so yesterday i think you went from red to black. ~a
[2021-02-25 16:39:23] - a: Ha - I had stopped paying attention to it. Gogo rocketships. -Daniel
[2021-02-25 16:36:16] - daniel: gme/amc today and yesterday, wow. ~a
[2021-02-25 16:05:30] - i wouldn't say "it can never happen". i would only say "it's likelihood of happening in the next 60 years is low". ~a
[2021-02-25 15:58:22] - paul: you're assuming that they won't act (or stop acting) when inflation starts. they can stop printing money and then using the usd can regain credibility. ~a
[2021-02-25 15:56:57] - paul: people will use the currencies that aren't being irresponsible. there's a reason people don't like using bolivars in venezuela. ~a
[2021-02-25 15:56:30] - a: Understood, but I'm talking more psychologically. The idea is that fear of a bubble keeps irrational behavior in check. Fear of hyperinflation might keep the Fed in check, but once everybody thinks it can never happen.... -Paul
[2021-02-25 15:55:43] - a: But what if other currencies are also being super irresponsible? -Paul
[2021-02-25 15:55:32] - bubble != inflation. i wouldn't treat these two scenarios the same way. ~a
[2021-02-25 15:55:11] - I keep seeing about how we're not in a bubble right now because everybody thinks we're in a bubble, but once everybody thinks we're not in a bubble that is when we should worry. Well, I think that kind of thinking might work for the Fed too. -Paul
[2021-02-25 15:54:31] - a: I mostly agree, but also... there has to be a limit at some point, right? And doesn't it seem like as soon as everybody thinks something can't happen.... that is when it is most likely to happen? -Paul
[2021-02-25 15:54:16] - paul: the fed knows other currencies exist. the fed knows that using other currencies in the united states is only getting easier every day. this reality requires that they be at least marginally responsible with their one currency among many. ~a
[2021-02-25 15:52:44] - paul: "$100"..."can only buy a single roll of toilet paper". i honestly doubt that will happen here. as much as i hate the fed, and doubt they can act responsibly, i don't think even they would let things get that bad. ~a
[2021-02-25 15:50:23] - a: Like, sure, I guess it would be neat to see my $100 turn into $1 million dollars overnight but it doesn't help much if that $1 million can only buy a single roll of toilet paper by the time I cash it out and go to the grocery store. -Paul
[2021-02-25 15:49:09] - a: Because of how hyperinflation works? I'm not sure that having the Treasury print even MORE dollars to try to keep up to a currency which is already spiraling out of control will actually end well. -Paul
[2021-02-25 15:44:52] - paul: "I have some doubt the Federal Government would be able to actually provide inflation protected principal" well, the treasury is the one printing the dollars, so how would they *not* be able to do this? ~a
[2021-02-25 15:21:21] - a: I guess I would need to dig into the mechanics of how TIPS works. I get the intent, but I have some doubt the Federal Government would be able to actually provide inflation protected principal in an environment where (largely due to their own irresponsibility) the dollar is seeing hyperinflation or something similar is happening. -Paul
[2021-02-25 15:06:45] - if the us lost its reserve currency status, or if i fed decided to, i dunno print a lot of dollars, any usd inflation that occured wouldn't directly affect tips. ~a
[2021-02-25 15:02:48] - other than the things you already mentioned, my only serious response to this is: tips. i know you (irrationally?) hate bonds, so this is probably already a non-starter. but to add to the things you hate about it: it seems to be run entirely by the us government. still, it's interesting: an inflation protected principal. i might buy some tips soon. ~a
[2021-02-25 14:52:47] - In other words: hyperinflation or perhaps the USD losing reserve currency status or something of the sort. So my question to everybody here is: What's the best way to prepare for that? Equities should be a bit of a hedge. Perhaps real estate (bonus if you took out a big mortgage!
). Crypto? -Paul[2021-02-25 14:51:26] - Had a discussion yesterday about how the 1918 Spanish Flu was followed by the roaring 20s, which was then followed by the great depression. I don't know if there's any reason to think history will follow in this case, but it did get me to thinking that all of this activity by the federal reserve and federal government might finally bring about a monetary crisis that I thought was imminent since the great recession. -Paul
[2021-02-24 20:47:10] - controller rumble is not enough to feel the game ~a
[2021-02-24 15:00:58] - paul: amazon has been doubling every couple of years. these past six months of "flat" is fairly expected. ~a
[2021-02-24 14:17:25] - Daniel: It's amazing to me that Talia's best performer is Noodles and Company and her worst is Amazon. -Paul
[2021-02-24 03:43:32] - yeah, the market rebounded mid-day. ~a
[2021-02-23 21:56:06] - Lol - only person I'm ahead of is Talia now
-Daniel[2021-02-23 15:04:27] - paul: good point. stupid mutual funds. he'll be doing alright at the eod (-1%ish as of right now), but you're right he'll no longer be beating/tied with half the field. ~a
[2021-02-23 15:03:17] - a: Aren't lots of his tickers delayed by a day because of the way they don't re-evaluate until EOD of whatever? -Paul
[2021-02-23 15:00:06] - daniel isn't looking so bad on the stock market challenge today! he's beating (or tied-ish) with half the field. that's so crazy. ~a
[2021-02-23 14:55:52] - paul: vgt (tech sector) is currently around -3%. so, you aren't that far off from the "market". ~a
[2021-02-23 14:54:38] - My portfolio is down 10% right now. I'm honestly impressed I was able to find close to 30 different companies that could average out to being down 10% on the same day.
-Paul[2021-02-20 13:41:34] - mig: Well, it IS Jezebel...
-Paul[2021-02-20 13:40:07] - mig: looks like it was not a troll. there's an update at the bottom. "Update, 4:39 p.m.: Jezebel has discovered the answer to our question about Chun Li’s erasure, and it is that Chun Li is not part of the Mortal Kombat megaverse. Wow!" the comment that brought about the update? "This is sort of like asking why Captain Picard never showed up in the new Star Wars Trilogy"
~a[2021-02-20 06:47:39] - https://jezebel.com/who-forgot-to-invite-chun-li-to-the-mortal-kombat-1846300631 was this is a genuine troll or are people really this fucking stupid? - mig
[2021-02-19 19:27:09] - a: Saw the big news. Honestly, it still feels like this could go a lot further. What happens if some central banks start dipping their toes in? -Paul
[2021-02-19 19:26:35] - Paul: Nice! -Daniel
[2021-02-19 19:24:08] - Daniel: We played direct strike in your honor on Wednesday and I crushed Mark and Adrian. Also, we won like 5 games of 3v3 in a row. -Paul
[2021-02-19 19:23:43] - Daniel: Glad to hear things are getting back to normal now that Cruz has returned to save his people.
-Paul[2021-02-19 19:23:23] - a: I closed the tab and now can't find it. Sorry. If I see it again I'll pass it along. -Paul
[2021-02-19 16:44:43] - because of the three new canadian etfs, the gbtc price-over-nav (markup) is much lower now. ~a
[2021-02-19 16:10:29] - in other news, bitcoin's "market cap" (if you want to call it that) is just passed $1t. ~a
[2021-02-19 16:03:11] - paul: btw, looks like my broker won't let me buy any of them.
~a[2021-02-19 15:54:39] - paul: three new canadian ticker symbols to check out: btcc-u.to, btcc-b.to, and ebit.to prospectus & prospectus. nav for the first ones ~$9 (0.00019btc and 0.00015btc) and for the last one is $20 (??? btc). expense ratio 1%/y. ~a
[2021-02-19 15:40:47] - "suddenly opening the door is less palatable" yah, i gotcha. garage is best for this, agreed. ~a
[2021-02-19 15:39:51] - a: Yes - we talked about that but then you have to open the door to the outside - and when you are trying to save all the degrees suddenly opening the door is less palatable. But yeah using snow for toilet water / cold source is definitely a thing that lots were / are doing. -Daniel
[2021-02-19 15:16:12] - ah yes i didn't even realize that there's probably a lot of ways of solving the "fridge" problem. couldn't you just put stuff into a cooler and keep it outdoors? ~a
[2021-02-19 15:13:50] - The other bonus for my household is that we have an extra fridge in our garage. Even with the power out it maintained a very cold temp (cause the garage just got cold) so we were able to rearrange and keep a lot of our cold stuff ok. -Daniel
[2021-02-19 15:09:40] - daniel: not quite the same, but i had a broken heater one winter, and had about a week before i was able to fix it. it was ridiculous. i remember taking hot showers (you didn't have this luxury, with what i'll assume is an electric water heater) and wearing tons of clothes/blankets. i don't remember what temperature my house got down to, but i was able to see my breath indoors which was weird. ~a
[2021-02-19 15:05:06] - a: Temperature wise our low was 47 ish? My mom got down to 44 I think. We made a blanket fort around our gas fireplace to make a little warm room. That got up to about 55 which felt nice at the time
-Daniel[2021-02-19 15:01:50] - daniel: nice! gas stove and gas fireplace are nice for situations like this. still, it sounds harrowing, to me, not having power for multiple days in the winter regardless of the details. ~a
[2021-02-19 14:58:09] - I wouldn't describe our personal situation as harrowing but I do think it was worse for others. We have a gas stove and gas fireplace so were able to utilize those. People on reddit posted about being out of power for 65+ hours. -Daniel
[2021-02-19 14:57:00] - a: Groceries in general are going to be a pain for the next week or two. Everyones cold stuff pretty much got jacked so lots of people need to restock (which also includes grocery stores). -Daniel
[2021-02-19 14:56:02] - a: Our bathtub is filled just in case our water goes out. We have some bottled water and are boiling water to use for things like washing dishes / brushing teeth / etc things. -Daniel
[2021-02-19 14:53:19] - do they recommend you fill your bathtub with water? i know some situations warrant having back-up water. ~a
[2021-02-19 14:53:06] - daniel: yikes. sounds harrowing. i'm glad things are getting back to normal! i'm guessing you probably aren't able to buy bottled water anywhere
~a[2021-02-19 14:52:09] - Monday / Tuesday were the worst because power just got poofed. Wed was better cause it was couple hours on couple hours off which is manageable. Thursday was pretty normal power wise but was just catching up on everything from earlier this week. -Daniel
[2021-02-19 14:50:56] - a: Getting back to normal. I think today in theory should be the last day I think for danger of losing power. There are some issues with water supply now because apparently a lot of pipes broke and froze and now thawing and leaking again. So hard for utility to maintain pressure everywhere in the system. -Daniel
[2021-02-18 22:08:39] - texas holdem
[2021-02-18 21:19:24] - paul: where's the article about road widening being a good thing? i want to consume your links! paul will pave paradise, and put up a parking lot. ~a
[2021-02-18 17:30:35] - its even worse than that really. i honestly think we're more likely to see an amendment to the us constitution that affects the first amendment directly or indirectly, than we are to see the 21 million number ever changed. "line of code" doesn't even address that there are multiple implementations to the bitcoin client.
~a[2021-02-18 17:28:13] - "I thought that was a pretty big oversimplification" yep. agreed. oversimplification like: "the first amendment to the constitution was just one sentence written on a piece of paper that could be changed" ~a
[2021-02-18 17:26:32] - a: Great, thanks for clarifying. I asked because in a discussion about bitcoin somebody mentioned that the 21 million limit was just a line of code that could be changed and I thought that was a pretty big oversimplification, but I guess at the heart there is some truth to that. -Paul
[2021-02-18 17:20:01] - paul: your example, though, of changing the "21 million" probably won't ever be a hard-fork that garners many users. i think you're safe there. otoh, we'll probably change what we call bitcoin. tons of people have tried for years to use the word "bit" to mean 1/1000000 of a bitcoin. like a stock split, not in the protocol (the protocol mostly deals with 1/100ths of a bit anyways). i imagine something like that will happen some day. ~a
[2021-02-18 17:16:22] - paul: yes technically correct. you'll "own" it. but that ownership is meaningless if you can't do anything with that ownership. most of the forks you're familiar with (bch, bsv, etc) have had a community of supporters. the ones you're less familiar with (2010 and 2013) disappeared very quickly. without users, without exchanges, and without miners, any hard fork dies quickly on the vine. ~a
[2021-02-18 17:11:12] - a: Fair. I guess my point is that I would still own the bitcoin from before which is part of the fork that is limited to 21 million (let's call it legacy bitcoin). Right? -Paul
[2021-02-18 16:58:37] - paul: soft-forks weren't listed there because there have been a bunch. page 4 has a list of some softforks bip30, bip16, bip34, bip50, bip66, bip65, etc. ~a
[2021-02-18 16:50:41] - paul: "A fork that doesn't alter the main bitcoin line" here is where you are partially correct. if a hard-fork happened to bitcoin, and "people" decided to follow "one" fork, that fork would be the "main bitcoin line". ignore the beginning of this page and look at 2010 and 2013. ~a
[2021-02-18 16:47:19] - the process for creating a soft or hard fork is very complicated. there are drafts and committees. there is a "testing" network. there is a "voting" system built into the software, for miners, who aren't typically members of the committees. non-mining users and exchanges don't get a vote but a "hard-fork" still won't fly without the backing of users and exchanges. ~a
[2021-02-18 16:40:12] - a: Right, but the forks would be just that, right? A fork that doesn't alter the main bitcoin line. -Paul
[2021-02-18 16:30:02] - paul: the longer answer is more complicated because there's a community of thousands of humans that decide what "bitcoin" means. and creating forks (both hard forks and soft forks) have happened before. ~a
[2021-02-18 16:28:24] - paul: "Is it even alterable then?" short answer is "no". with half the mining capacity (even the times you hear about mining pools getting half mining capacity, it's not actually as bad as you think) you can't change many things. you can't take people's money, you can't change the "rules". if you do, you create a hard-fork that likely nobody will follow unless they agree to follow your hard-fork. ~a
[2021-02-18 16:16:30] - a: Random bitcoin question: The 21 million limit is pretty unchangeable, right? Unless you somehow seized control of half of the mining capacity? Is it even alterable then? -Paul
[2021-02-18 15:49:43] - paul: hmm, well no its probably not about how things are taxed. the bloomberg link talks exclusively about how things are reported to the SEC, not the IRS. i know the IRS likes to also see your "earnings", for tax purposes, but i think that's a separate and unrelated conversation/transaction than the one you have with the SEC. ~a
[2021-02-18 15:46:54] - a: A non-government entity gets some decisions that ultimately affect how things are taxed? That's odd. -Paul
[2021-02-18 15:21:22] - daniel: how's life? ~a
[2021-02-18 15:21:08] - paul: based on your bloomberg link, it appears to be gaap / fasb, which is a non-government entity. the fasb has to follow the law, but where the law is undefined, i think the fasb has free reign? (again, based on your bloomberg link), it appears that the fasb intentionally decided not to change the way bitcoin is accounted for. which implies they might have the option to deal with it however. ~a
[2021-02-18 06:49:11] - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interactive-brokers-chairman-thomas-peterffy-on-gamestop-frenzy.html Some more evidence that restrictions put into place by brokers during the Gamestop fiasco might have been legit and not a conspiracy to crush WSB. -Paul
[2021-02-18 01:59:59] - a: Not sure why bitcoin is treated the way it is. I believe it was based on some IRS ruling? -Paul
[2021-02-18 01:59:26] - And if you get annoyed partway through because you think he's calling out others and not turning the mirror on himself.... he addresses that in his last point too. -Paul
[2021-02-18 01:58:49] - https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/30/i-can-tolerate-anything-except-the-outgroup/ I think I've read this before (and maybe even posted here), but I re-read it today and found it interesting (all over again?). Not sure I agree with his conclusions, but I found a lot of his theories though-provoking. -Paul
[2021-02-17 23:12:30] - yes, i've seen that too. but why? like what law decides that? "despite the name" seems fairly condescending to me. "full faith and credit of a foreign government" is the standard i've seen some places, but god, that seems so shady: at least a dozen foreign governments don't have faith or credit to give. ~a
[2021-02-17 20:02:26] - "cryptocurrencies — despite the name — aren’t classified as cash or equivalents for accounting purposes." "Instead they’re deemed an intangible asset whose value is reported at cost in corporate accounts and must be written down if the price declines. The value cannot be written up again until they’re sold." -Paul
[2021-02-17 20:01:36] - a: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-09/tesla-s-bitcoin-bet-is-a-bean-counter-s-nightmare I remember hearing something about how the accounting is weird (at least for Tesla). According to this article, the internet is right. -Paul
[2021-02-17 19:59:57] - https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/17/politics/cuomo-ron-kim-nursing-home/index.html Maybe Cuomo is actually just as big a jerk as DeSantis? It's gotta be bad when a Democratic Assemblyman reports that he threatened him. -Paul
[2021-02-17 19:56:38] - paul: i wonder if cryptocurrencies are considered cash and cash equivalents (CCE). people on the internet are saying "no" but their reasons sound like bullshit. bitcoin can "fluctuate in value" but so can small foreign currencies that do count. i can't imagine considering the venezuelan bolívar or the iranian rial CCE if bitcoin does not count. right? ~a
[2021-02-17 19:37:48] - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/blackrock-has-started-to-dabble-in-bitcoin-says-rick-rieder.html Also Blackrock, but who has heard of them?
-Paul[2021-02-17 19:33:32] - a: https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/17/the-motley-fool-announces-5-million-investment-in/ The Fool is putting some BTC on their balance sheet. -Paul
[2021-02-17 17:54:37] - a: Interestingly, right after those comments you linked to, there was a discussion about equal pay for the US Women's National Soccer (Football?) Team where you basically accused me of being a raging sexist.
-Paul[2021-02-17 17:53:56] - a: Maybe part of the disconnect is that you thought I was accusing people here of using Nazi comparisons? That wasn't my intent. Did I think people here were generally against family separation? Yes. But my later comments about overheated rhetoric were mainly directed at others outside the message board. -Paul
[2021-02-17 16:14:20] - obviously 2019-adrian has a great point, but regardless of that point, it wasn't a nazi comparison. i couldn't find any such comparisons. ~a
[2021-02-17 15:34:43] - (me 2019) "paul: its a policy change. It was meant as a deterrent. Before there were limits on how long people could be in the system and policy on how people (unseparated) were treated. New policy is harsher. For deterrence. It's intentional. ... 'Under Bush and Obama, parents and children were not routinely separated to pursue criminal prosecutions for illegal entry and reentry'" ~a
[2021-02-17 15:34:41] - paul: ok i did my footwork. i went back to our conversations from 2019 about this, i'm guessing you won't consider this nazi comparisons or inhumane in ALL cases or overheated rhetoric or akin to the holocaust and fascism. please let me know what you think! (see next message) ~a
[2021-02-17 15:22:07] - paul: "it should give those people a little bit of pause" it should but it probably won't. cognitive dissonance is built-in to our brains, and overcoming it is difficult even when you know its happening. ~a
[2021-02-17 15:19:31] - a: of people on their own side. -paul
[2021-02-17 15:19:24] - a: And even in the most charitable interpretation of events (they truly thought family separation was an atrocity before but have now learned that maybe it is acceptable in some circumstances), it should give those people a little bit of pause to maybe, just maybe, reconsider jumping immediately to Nazi comparisons and maybe think of why they assume the absolute worst of people on the other side while assuming the absolute best... -Paul
[2021-02-17 15:17:47] - paul: of course, i'm assuming you aren't referring to me. if you are, don't worry about being polite, just tell me
if you are, maybe i can go back searching through my previous posts. ~a[2021-02-17 15:16:22] - paul: i believe you. but without reading it myself, i can't internalize it. ~a
[2021-02-17 15:14:43] - a: I am saying that lots of people (the media, lobbying groups, celebrities, etc) were saying that family separation was inhumane and awful in ALL cases and were using overheated rhetoric about it being akin to the Holocaust and fascism WHEN TRUMP WAS DOING IT. Those very same people seem to suddenly have either found a bunch of nuance or are completely ignoring family separation when Biden is doing it. -Paul
[2021-02-17 15:13:24] - paul: i'm sure we've discussed this before, but i don't ever buy government bonds. i buy bond mutual funds and etfs (vbtlx, bnd, vtabx, etc. these do hold some government bonds, but typically less than half if you don't count mortgages managed by the government). . . . just in case you thought i was going to the bank and buying i-bonds or something like that. ~a
[2021-02-17 15:10:00] - paul: on that note, will you use (do you envision using) bonds *in* retirement? if not, how will you compensate for stock market crashes? ~a
[2021-02-17 15:08:37] - paul: "It's still so weird to me that you dislike emergency funds (or at least think it's fine to invest them in the market) but like bonds." i'm such an enigma
the typical emergency fund earns less than inflation (negative real total return). bonds earn way more than inflation (positive real total return). i understand why lots of people have emergency funds, but people in my position probably don't need or want them. ~a[2021-02-17 14:56:23] - paul: "The same people who had no nuance whatsoever under Trump" i *still* can't tell what you're referring to here specifically. if you're talking about something i said, or something in the mainstream media that was being literal, please lmk. your three links were unsatisfying, sorry: like a tweet of an image from an actor? i don't get it, man. ~a
[2021-02-17 14:51:59] - paul: "you are basing this off of a drop that was initiated during the Trump administration, right?" entirely. ~a
[2021-02-17 14:51:26] - a: It's still so weird to me that you dislike emergency funds (or at least think it's fine to invest them in the market) but like bonds.
-Paul[2021-02-17 14:50:49] - a: "this is a lack of nuance, paul" I kinda agree, and that's kinda my point. The same people who had no nuance whatsoever under Trump now suddenly are finding all the nooks and crannies of nuance under Biden. That's mighty convenient. I look forward to a ton of nuance about the (continued) lying about no vaccine plan and the nuance around the goalpost moving about school re-openings and all sorts of other things. -Paul
[2021-02-17 14:49:17] - a: "i haven't seen this" Didn't I just show you a bunch of examples? "to the point that doing it any less actually becomes harmful again" But again, we don't know if that's going to be the case with Biden and (ironically to me at least), you are basing this off of a drop that was initiated during the Trump administration, right? -Paul
[2021-02-16 22:17:39] - paul/daniel: i'm also working on a new feature that is still simmering: bond tent! the idea that your bond/equity mix should be constant during retirement seems to go contrary to the data. ~a
[2021-02-16 21:06:15] - paul/daniel: i made some changes to my retirement simulator! biggest change is it now supports a bond/equity mix. if you have python, it's pretty easy to run: git clone https://github.com/arichnad/retirement-simulator in that directory: python3 simulate.py --equity-percent=75 35 4 (this does a 75% equity + 25% bond mix, for 35 years, taking out 4% of your starting balance per year, adjusted for inflation). ~a
[2021-02-16 20:28:18] - "if Biden is still doing a bad thing (even if Trump did it worse), then it's still a bad thing" this is a lack of nuance, paul: if i do a bad thing less than trump, but like WAYYY less than trump, to the point that doing it any less actually becomes harmful again, then no, it's not still a bad thing. i feel like i've already said this in like six different ways, though. ~a
[2021-02-16 20:27:46] - paul: "The standard (from people before) is that it is absolutely wrong in every circumstance" i haven't seen this. ~a
[2021-02-16 20:15:02] - a: "are you talking about 2018 here or 2020 here?" Probably 2018? I honestly don't know. Whenever the headlines were filled with stories about kids in cages. I'm guessing it wasn't 2020 because COVID dominated headlines then. -Paul
[2021-02-16 20:12:56] - a: If the bar is set at Trump and as long as Biden isn't that bad then we can't criticize him then I suppose I can save us all a lot of time for the next four years and just not bring these things up anymore, but I happen to believe that if Biden is still doing a bad thing (even if Trump did it worse), then it's still a bad thing. -Paul
[2021-02-16 20:10:53] - a: The standard (from people before) is that it is absolutely wrong in every circumstance. If it was absolutely wrong in every circumstance under Trump, why isn't it absolutely wrong in every circumstance under Biden? -Paul
[2021-02-16 19:55:16] - paul: "People get outraged when Trump does a bad thing" are you talking about 2018 here or 2020 here? "holocaust" and "never acceptable", i simply don't consume that media so i'm not angered by it like you are. if its the mainstream media you're talking about, and you aren't taking things too literally, then yes you truly have a great point, but i haven't seen that yet. ~a
[2021-02-16 19:51:54] - paul: "I'm sorry I have this weird hold-up with holding politicians to the same standards regardless of the party they are in?" that is not what you're doing. how is equating 400 children per month with the current situation the same standard? ~a
[2021-02-16 18:54:31] - a: I'm sorry I have this weird hold-up with holding politicians to the same standards regardless of the party they are in? -Paul
[2021-02-16 18:53:54] - a: "and this might be a "you" problem?" So, let me get this straight: People get outraged when Trump does a bad thing and go on and on about how inhumane it is and never acceptable and compare it to the holocaust and then when Biden does it it's suddenly much more nuanced and sometimes not only acceptable but even a good thing and somehow this is a me problem? -Paul
[2021-02-16 18:53:20] - paul: "When it's the media" ah, ok i'm sorry i didn't realize the media was doing this. i hadn't seen a link of the media doing this yet. "flippant with language and loose with facts" being figurative isn't being flippant with language or loose with facts. ~a
[2021-02-16 18:51:36] - a: Oof, wow, I thought we were getting close but HARD disagree on your last few statements. "i don't care, and neither should you?" When it's the media informing people and lobbying groups pushing policies and politicians making the actual policies.... yeah, I care, and I think others should too. I don't see any benefit to being flippant with language and loose with facts. -Paul
[2021-02-16 18:40:30] - paul: most of your links were talking about 2018 when things were really really bad. if someone wants to put an end to senseless violence, they usually aren't being literal, and you should probably not take them literally. you seem to be interpreting those three links about 2018 too literally: and this might be a "you" problem? ~a
[2021-02-16 18:39:58] - "the vast majority would say no excuse and no amount was acceptable" uninformed people saying uninformed things? i don't care, and neither should you? ~a
[2021-02-16 18:39:14] - paul: "It seems to me that family separation should only happen in the rarest of circumstances" it's my belief that this is what is happening (except in 2018). ~a
[2021-02-16 18:38:59] - a: I mean, do you honestly think you would have that nuanced a view a few years ago in the midst of everything? Did you believe back then that it was a legit tool that should be used and Trump was just doing it too much? -Paul
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