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[2022-06-09 14:45:09] - have seen it normally. -Paul
[2022-06-09 14:45:02] - a: I first heard of the Kavanaugh news on Twitter, and never saw it mentioned on the others (admittedly, I didn't do a "find in page", so I'm sure it was there somewhere, but it wasn't prominently enough displayed that I would
[2022-06-09 14:09:47] - paul: it's crazy to me that inflation is actually really LOW compared to the history of SS. 8% is nothing compared to what the SS program has seen. ~a
[2022-06-09 14:09:00] - paul: "The combined asset reserves of both funds are now projected to have a depletion date of 2035, one year later than was projected last year. At that time, 80% of benefits will be payable." so, things are actually getting better? this is the first time i've seen someone actually put a date on it. obviously 2035 isn't great, but it's getting better apparently, not worse. ~a
[2022-06-09 14:05:02] - paul: and twitter was the only one that mentioned the kavanaugh news prominently? ~a
[2022-06-09 14:04:08] - Oh, and Google News. -Paul
[2022-06-09 14:03:55] - I'm a mix of CNN, CNBC, Reason, Washingtonpost, and Twitter for my news. CNN and Wapo give me the lay of what the mainstream media is talking about, Reason often gives me an alternate take on what the MSM is talking about, Twitter often unearths stories I wouldn't otherwise have seen (like the Kavanaugh one). -Paul
[2022-06-09 13:55:50] - oh i also watch tucker carlson at least a few times a week. i'm sure he'll have a field-day with the kavanaugh news. ~a
[2022-06-09 13:53:41] - i guess i also watch seth meyers and john oliver, but still not as much as npr or reddit. ~a
[2022-06-09 13:53:26] - a: I donate to them but fundraising week is annoying. -Daniel
[2022-06-09 13:53:04] - yeah me too. i look at cnn and wapo, but not as much as npr or reddit. ~a
[2022-06-09 13:52:51] - NPR (and reddit?) are my main two news sources I think. -Daniel
[2022-06-09 13:52:30] - paul/daniel: yeah it sucks that it's their fucking fundraising week (here in nova, i'm not sure if they line these up nationally or not). i refuse to donate to npr during their god damn fundraising week. ~a
[2022-06-09 13:52:28] - thanks.
~a[2022-06-09 13:52:22] - a: Sorry you are still feeling sick too! -Daniel
[2022-06-09 13:51:50] - paul: I also heard about it on NPR. -Daniel
[2022-06-09 13:51:27] - paul: of course you're right (for the record, i hate social security, so we won't disagree on that). but . . . with inflation, social security income will go up. it'll lag a bunch, and it won't be exactly 1-to-1, but it'll go up. ~a
[2022-06-09 13:50:38] - a: Ah, I don't listen to NPR. -Paul
[2022-06-09 13:50:15] - a: I had to search for it to find it buried on CNN. -Paul
[2022-06-09 13:49:49] - paul: i am sick so i've been listening to a lot of npr. they have been talking about it all day yesterday and today. ~a
[2022-06-09 13:49:15] - a: Wow, you're a much biger consumer of news than I. I didn't see it mentioned in any mainstream news sources I read outside of twitter. -Paul
[2022-06-09 13:48:05] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/06/social-security-cost-of-living-adjustment-in-2023-may-be-a-record-high.html Oof. I hadn't thought about how increased inflation (and thus higher SS payouts) would hurt the longevity of SS. -Paul
[2022-06-09 13:40:31] - paul: i love this subtle exchange from your twitter link: @the_pike_man "Imagine if it was RBGs house!!!" @VaggBen "I have some terrible news" ~a
[2022-06-09 13:35:52] - paul: on the other side of the coin, "fox news doesn't plan to carry jan. 6 hearings live" (today). curious if you heard about that? ~a
[2022-06-09 13:32:13] - paul: i did. all the news agencies seemed to report it yesterday and today. npr, local news, cnn, wapo, fox news, etc. did any news agencies skip it? ~a
[2022-06-09 13:14:37] - https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1534629987730526208 Curious if anybody here heard about the assassination attempt on Kavanaugh yesterday... -Paul
[2022-06-09 13:14:19] - a: Sorry to hear. Get better soon! -Paul
[2022-06-09 10:44:26] - daniel: sorry i missed games last night. i'm still kinda sick. ~a
[2022-06-08 19:47:14] - https://www.humanprogress.org/40-ways-the-world-is-getting-better/ I also lean on this website a lot for data on how the world is getting better. -Paul
[2022-06-08 19:46:14] - a: But maybe I am too swayed by Stephen Pinker (https://stevenpinker.com/) -Paul
[2022-06-08 19:45:46] - a: "there's a lot of people who would not agree that life is better than it was 10-20 years ago" Because of global warming? I can see this argument being true for maybe something like Venezuela or Cuba or Russia or very specific places that have been awfully governed for decades by despots, but I feel like outside of that, nearly everywhere else has see net improvements over the past few decades. -Paul
[2022-06-08 19:43:25] - Oh, and multiple forges and evo chambers for faster upgrades. Never used to do that. -Paul
[2022-06-08 19:43:05] - Daniel: I think I settled on Pig being my preferred source of YouTube vids. I've definitely been watching more SC2 stuff since we've been playing more regularly as well. Not sure if it has improved my game, but I have picked up a few smart things like shield batteries in my natural when aggression is scouted (I never used to do that) and building more production buildings (something I was previously bad at). -Paul
[2022-06-08 19:07:38] - mig: sorry, the deal with air conditioning is that they don't have it, and they won't have it in 40-50 years but it'll be literally hotter. ~a
[2022-06-08 19:07:04] - a: how many had air conditioning in 2000? life expetency? health care system? - mig
[2022-06-08 19:03:45] - a: no, just the general doom and gloom talk from progressive circles when it comes to issues like income, climate change, etc. - mig
[2022-06-08 19:02:06] - ok. i remind you of that? ~a
[2022-06-08 19:01:33] - a: I'm just reminded by a post on reddit highlighting something about income equality being worse than it was in the middle ages, and people clamoring about how yes, we indeed are having a life worse now than the peasants in the 1200s. It was so weird. - mig
[2022-06-08 18:58:25] - mig: 5% of people living in india have air conditioning. ~a
[2022-06-08 18:57:14] - mig: people who care about biodiversity for whatever reason are also sadder and sadder every year. ~a
[2022-06-08 18:57:07] - mig: i think it really depends on where you live. there's a lot of people who would not agree that life is better than it was 10-20 years ago. especially people in areas that don't have air conditioning or water, and it's getting hotter (literally), and they can't get air conditioning (because it'll only make it hotter) or water (because they are losing access to water). ~a
[2022-06-08 18:54:51] - Maybe i'm being a little rosier than the articles conclusion is. - mig
[2022-06-08 18:54:14] - a: human history? I mean, there's no real metrics for it, but I think the statement, "Life is better than it was like 10-20 years ago" would feel like a true statement for most past the 1950s. - mig
[2022-06-08 18:46:21] - mig: "more than likely, we'll be better off in the next 40-50 years overall than we are now". based on what? based on what metrics even? regardless, this could only be a guess. i'm not sure the article goes that far. there's a huge gulf between "children are somehow doomed to an unhappy life" and "more than likely, we'll be better off in the next 40-50 years overall than we are now" ~a
[2022-06-08 18:41:25] - one note that I think was hit upon that resonated is that more than likely, we'll be better off in the next 40-50 years overall than we are now, just as we are all better off than we were 40-50 years ago. - mig
[2022-06-08 18:40:18] - a: no it doesn't, and i agree it could move faster, but it's also nowhere close to being the end of the world. - mig
[2022-06-08 18:38:11] - mig: again, both. technology for a greener future isn't moving fast enough. the article doesn't refute that does it? ~a
[2022-06-08 18:37:37] - I kind of wish there was more discourse like this instead of the Greta Thunburg sneering about how we're all bad people because technnology for a greener future isn't moving fast enough. - mig
[2022-06-08 18:37:24] - mig: you can be both. unless i misread the article, it's like, yes things will be very shitty, but let's not lie to kids about how bad it'll be. (just like adults) kids have trouble figuring out which things are lies and which are reasonable. ~a
[2022-06-08 18:36:42] - I think partly I had a period when Harden left the Rockets where basketball made me sad and I think I ended up filling that space with SC2. -Daniel
[2022-06-08 18:36:26] - matt might agree but I suspect he's in the super doom and gloom crowd. - mig
[2022-06-08 18:36:10] - a: I've watched some of Harstem's stuff but not a ton. I definitely watched a lot more SC2 on youtube since we started playing more regularly. I watch Vibe on twitch and Lowko on youtube a lot. Also GSL occasionally. -Daniel
[2022-06-08 18:32:12] - Yeah I think the article is reasonable. Climate Change is a thing that we need to deal with but its not turning our planet into Venus in the immediate future. -Daniel
[2022-06-08 18:27:05] - you could always post him a link here since he's been here before.
he even has a signature color. ~a[2022-06-08 18:25:27] - otoh, he might actually agree with parts of the article. i agree with most of it and i feel like matt and i agree on a lot of stuff about climate change. ~a
[2022-06-08 18:08:18] - seconded. ~a
[2022-06-08 18:06:48] - mig: I dare you to send that article to Matt Herndon.
-Paul[2022-06-08 18:06:01] - a: Reminds me of Uthermal and some of his bongcloud games where at the very beginning of the game he picks up his command center and floats it to some other location.... and still wins. -Paul
[2022-06-08 18:04:53] - a: I'm a tiny bit familiar with Harstem, although I haven't watched a ton of those videos. I think he's a pro SC2 gamer (or at least recently was) so I wouldn't be surprised if he could pull some of these off. -Paul
[2022-06-08 17:38:16] - https://www.vox.com/23158406/climate-change-tell-kids-wont-destroy-world?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4 this might be the best article on climate change i've read in a long while. - mig
[2022-06-08 14:09:53] - "pretending that my third base is my natural", is where he pretends like he's trying to expand to his natural but is having trouble doing that. when in reality he just expanded somewhere else. ~a
[2022-06-08 14:07:06] - my favorite part is that he often loses. because he's playing people (GM) who are used to BS like this. another was one where he won by denying mining without killing workers (stasis, force field, and destroying base building). another was winning by denying upgrades. another was one where he won with a mothership rush. they're all really weird. ~a
[2022-06-08 14:06:17] - *pretending. ~a
[2022-06-08 14:02:41] - paul/daniel: sorry if someone already posted this, but i've been watching a lot of "beating grandmasters with stupid stuff" because they're mostly hilarious. one was "pretenging i'm afk" where he acts like he's afk while he builds a base somewhere else. once his opponent kills his "main" base, then the jig is up, but it's pretty funny to watch. ~a
[2022-06-07 14:15:36] - also this was an opinion in the toronto star yesterday. it's good to see this great press. ~a
[2022-06-07 13:48:46] - why europe is insanely well designed (8 minutes). the part that surprised me the most was the ratio of cars to parking spaces. it's kinda a stark difference and it makes me wonder how such a difference could even be correct. ~a
[2022-06-06 18:36:15] - Guess I need to do more blinking away versus blinking forward and more hit and run with them. -Paul
[2022-06-06 18:36:06] - Daniel: I was surprised Rogue lost that last fight in the second game. Looked like he had enough. I think those zealots were sneaky effective. It's odd that the casters didn't make a bigger deal of the fact that Protoss seemed to consistently be on the same number of bases as Zerg, though. Seems relevant. But yeah, those stalkers seem like 5X more effective than mine ever are. -Paul
[2022-06-06 18:31:46] - daniel: i'm in this week, i think: i'm kinda sick . . . so i'd prefer wednesday thursday or friday? ~a
[2022-06-06 16:39:20] - paul: Turns out blink stalkers are good if used carefully. -Daniel
[2022-06-06 16:32:19] - a: You out again for SC2? -Daniel
[2022-06-06 16:32:12] - paul: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jv0TMbyqL9U - I haven't watched the whole series yet but the first game shows that Stalkers can have some value since you shit on them a lot
-Daniel[2022-06-06 15:09:10] - Probably not big news for most here, but with Ilya Shapiro resigning from Georgetown ( https://twitter.com/ishapiro/status/1533818890140229635 ) the same day FIRE decides to expand beyond college campuses ( https://twitter.com/TheFIREorg/status/1533799440473116672 )... it's a big day for free speech. -Paul
[2022-06-05 16:15:48] - gunmen fire into philadelphia crowd; 3 killed, 11 injured. philly has had 9 mass shootings this year. chicago had 7 in may alone. ~a
[2022-06-03 21:26:22] - paul: I've been super out on anything LP related for quite some time now, but it's kind of sad to read. - mig
[2022-06-03 21:13:58] - paul: journalism dies in stealth edits. - mig
[2022-06-03 20:36:29] - https://reason.com/2022/06/03/can-a-post-takeover-libertarian-party-improve-on-its-historical-run-of-2012-20/ For those not super tuned in to internal LP politics (I don't blame you), a new regime has taken hold of the national LP which is very likely to lead to a different kind of communications strategy which leans into trolling and shock value. I suspect many here might find it offensive. Be prepared! -Paul
[2022-06-03 20:09:12] - https://twitter.com/LevineJonathan/status/1532799108364349440 Taylor Lorenz is back trending on twitter after WaPo apparently had to stealth edit another one of her articles after she was apparently caught lying. -Paul
[2022-06-03 15:29:27] - https://twitter.com/kelsaywhat/status/1532385229062787073 Also, related because of the Depp / Heard trial.... this seems really weird and disturbing to me. Do people really feel so strongly about who was right and who was wrong in this trial than they're judging other people based on instagram likes? Yeesh. People need to get a life. -Paul
[2022-06-03 15:07:42] - mig: Somewhat related (in that it's about the ACLU): https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1532498632913702925 I can kind of see why the organization has drifted away from being a non-partisan civil rights org to a more activist progressive org. Six times your yearly average in donations in a single weekend is incredible. -Paul
[2022-06-03 14:45:29] - https://www.11alive.com/article/news/verify/pop-culture/aclu-seeks-legal-fees-johnny-depp-amber-heard-lawsuit/536-19fcf295-d32f-499e-b706-f0564d20065f this is such an odd lawsuit. I mean I get the ACLU feels like they were dragged into this case by Depp, but given that they were compelled by court order to turn over documents makes this case a bit of a non-starter, though IANAL? - mig
[2022-06-03 14:25:09] - and companies scrambling to build up inventory after supply chain issues. -Paul
[2022-06-03 14:24:56] - I just realized that while I can easily grasp how high inflation works in the real world, it's a lot harder to grasp how high deflation would work (likely because it's not something we have really experienced in our lifetimes). The prices of things keep going down? And maybe we get pay.... decreases? Also, I wonder if we might see some temporary periods of deflation coming up soon with the Fed tightening rates... -Paul
[2022-06-02 13:45:29] - Daniel: https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/Concussive_Shells You were right, concussive shells do not affect attack speed. -Paul
[2022-06-01 22:35:36] - It's seriously amazing how difficult they make what should be something that is simple. It's why I think Zoom was able to make headway in a world that Skype should've dominated (I know it's Microsoft and not Google, but same idea of a tech behemoth being out of touch with usability). -Paul
[2022-06-01 22:34:33] - They insisted on splitting google messaging (or whatever it was called) into hangouts, which worked fine, then they moved to this godawful system where hangouts works for some accounts but not others? And where hangouts doesn't exist it's a pain to use the replacement. -Paul
[2022-06-01 22:33:10] - Daniel: Can't tell if I am older and thus less tolerant of change, or if they have gotten worse, but I'm so fed up with their constant rebranding / sunsetting of products / creating duplicate products -Paul
[2022-06-01 21:18:26] - paul: yeah google does a lot and makes some cool stuff but long term stability / consistency isn't really their strongest suit. -Daniel
[2022-06-01 20:55:16] - https://www.engadget.com/google-duo-meet-integration-174748145.html This comment very accurately sums up my frustration with Google in general and their approach to messaging specifically: "Next year they will announce the return of hangouts, which then will spilt into two more apps before condensing them into 1 single app again. Then they will do it all over again." -Paul
[2022-05-31 23:54:56] - mig: i'm not sure i follow your line of reasoning. the people in the tweet i linked are people who are offering "thoughts and prayers" for resolving the notable increase in mass shootings in the united states and are receiving money from the nra, who also only have "thoughts and prayers" to offer. bloomberg's everytown (for better or worse) is not offering "thoughts and prayers". ~a
[2022-05-31 23:43:26] - daniel: i'm out this week, thanks! ~a
[2022-05-31 20:12:37] - a: You have votes on SC2 email? -Daniel
[2022-05-29 17:01:23] - a: why do we act like the NRA is the only org who pours money into politics? - mig
[2022-05-28 14:48:11] - a: I always see news sites change headlines and the text of articles so now I just try to post quotes or take screenshots. It's annoying when posting to twitter too. -Paul
[2022-05-28 14:47:29] - a: Uh... I think they changed it again from yesterday? I see "Official: Girl told 911 ‘send the police now’ as cops waited" now, which is similar to yesterday but I think it might be slightly different? I thought about that when you posted a link. -Paul
[2022-05-28 04:13:36] - lol they literally changed the title. I kinda hate when they do that. which title did you see? ~a
[2022-05-27 20:43:33] - a: Seems like a reasonably correct and neutral headline. I don't know a ton about the specifics. It sounds like new info continues to come out. It doesn't sound like law enforcement in general had their best effort with this case (https://reason.com/2022/05/26/uvalde-shooting-texas-cops-handcuff-parents-killer/) -Paul
[2022-05-27 20:38:23] - a: Thanks. I'll try to take a look at those over the weekend. In the meantime, I might just assume 100+ data points is enough.
-Paul[2022-05-27 19:05:29] - i know there's been a lot of bullshit talk about this situation, so i found the article with the most neutrally worded title. 1. do you agree that this title is worded correctly/neutrally? 2. what do you think about that situation? "please send the police now" is a quote i hadn't seen before this article. ~a
[2022-05-26 20:17:00] - there's also a summary over on this article ~a
[2022-05-26 20:14:28] - paul: i also found this nice wikipedia article on that exact topic. ~a
[2022-05-26 20:13:30] - paul: "A distribution where only two outcomes are possible, such as success or failure, gain or loss, win or lose and where the probability of success and failure is same for all the trials is called a Binomial Distribution" obvious part of that (probability of success and failure is the same for all trials isn't exactly right, but it's a good starting point imo). ~a
[2022-05-26 16:30:26] - paul: no clue. i googled it, and it seems like we first need to find which distribution you're going to use. your data isn't normally distributed (so you don't have a sample mean or standard deviation i guess). past that i'm totally lost. find a statistician. ~a
[2022-05-26 15:24:21] - a: Looking up how to calculate a confidence interval. Unclear to me how to do it with win/loss records like I have. Which number am I supposed to use? -Paul
[2022-05-26 14:56:48] - thoughts and prayers ~a
[2022-05-26 14:54:55] - paul: "I am clearly better at Terran than Protoss" yes, but 95% CI? ~a
[2022-05-26 14:40:54] - a: Well, I don't always do the same thing. The weird thing is.... I often feel better about how I am doing as Protoss than I do as Terran.... and yet I am clearly better at Terran than Protoss. -Paul
[2022-05-26 14:17:26] - paul:
we should play PvP and see if your protoss strategy is actually worse than mine or not. ~a[2022-05-26 14:15:42] - a: I've tried switching up my Protoss strategy, but I plan to still try new things during non ranked games. I just feel bad bringing the team down during ranked games. -Paul
[2022-05-26 14:04:06] - paul: "at least during ranked games, I should specify a non-Protoss race?" oooor, you change up your protoss strategy? though, either are fine imo. but if you want to win as random, i think maybe you change your protoss strat. ~a
[2022-05-26 14:02:56] - Secondly: I have 33 games logged as Protoss where we play ranked games versus strangers. My Protoss record in those games is worst among the races for 4v4 Ranked, 3v3 Ranked, and tied with Terran for worst at 2v2 Ranked (33%). Sufficient evidence that, at least during ranked games, I should specify a non-Protoss race? -Paul
[2022-05-26 14:02:01] - "the 95% confidence level is most common" ~a
[2022-05-26 14:01:46] - paul: yes. you should calculate a CI. CI will tell you how "sure" you are that it isn't all just random chance. and in statistics, you're just saying, the odds of it all just being random chance that you lose at protoss isn't zero, it's just "small". ~a
[2022-05-26 14:00:01] - Is that enough data points to indicate I'm just not good at Protoss? -Paul
[2022-05-26 13:59:39] - Statistics question: I've not logged 208 SC2 games, with at least 60 games of each race. My Protoss win rate is 20 percentage points below my next worst race (38% for Protoss vs 58% for Terran). -Paul
[2022-05-25 17:11:01] - this isn't inevitable. ~a
[2022-05-25 13:42:50] - I'm somehow not last! -Paul
[2022-05-25 13:35:02] - First place in the stock challenge! Sad yay, I think for all of us... -Daniel
[2022-05-24 20:49:13] - a: Short term movements are always hard for me to parse. Wouldn't surprise me if a non-zero percent of it was his tweets. -Paul
[2022-05-24 20:48:35] - a: Oh, over the past week? Sure, I guess it could be down significantly more than everything else. Maybe due to Musk? Maybe due to supply chain issues or concerns over weakening consumer? Concerns over China? I have no idea. -Paul
[2022-05-24 20:39:05] - "drop from 52 week high", sure, but i think i said "this week" and "his tweets about (literally) 'owning the libs'". 52 week high is irrelevant in that context. ~a
[2022-05-24 20:38:51] - a: So it's holding up better DESPITE the fact you could argue it might be the most overvalued since it has also had one of the most epic run-ups over the past 5 years or so. -Paul
[2022-05-24 20:38:06] - a: Okay, then pick any of the other companies I mentioned? I guess maybe I am in a bubble with my investments, but in terms of drop from 52 week high, Tesla is 4th best in my portfolio of ~20 companies. -Paul
[2022-05-24 20:19:43] - "any other tech stock" oh ANY other tech stock? oh probably not. why does it need to be any other tech stock? ~a
[2022-05-24 20:18:26] - paul: "Has Tesla gone down any more than any other tech stock?" yes. tsla has gone down more than vgt on almost any timescale i pick: 5d, 1m, 6m, ytd, etc. "What's Amazon's excuse then" uuuh, weird example for you to pick as amzn also has been fucking around with social media meltdowns too? ~a
[2022-05-24 20:13:27] - a: I haven't changed my portfolio much the past 6 months or so and Tesla keeps becoming a larger and larger percent of it, which means it is holding up better than stuff like Shopify and Sea and Mercado Libre. -Paul
[2022-05-24 20:12:40] - a: Eh, doubt it. Has Tesla gone down any more than any other tech stock? I always think it's silly when I see stuff like "Tesla down X% since Musk offered to buy Twitter". I'm like, "What's Amazon's excuse then?" -Paul
[2022-05-24 19:32:07] - paul: do you think tesla's performance this week is at least *partially* related to his tweets about (literally) "owning the libs"? everybody knows his customers are 90% libs. maybe more. what is he even doing? ~a
[2022-05-24 15:01:05] - Makes it far easier to weather storms like this, IMHO. -Paul
[2022-05-24 15:00:55] - a: But I think the emotional part is helpful still. For example, even with bitcoin down like 50% or so from highs, I'm still anchored back to like 2018 when I was amazed it climbed to $20k so anything above that still seems a bit unreal to me. For somebody who bought at $60k? They're probably cursing their rotten luck. -Paul
[2022-05-24 14:56:55] - anchoring bias, yes thank you. that's pretty close to what i was talking about. ~a
[2022-05-24 14:56:46] - I live by that mantra, though. I try mentally think about how I would rebalance like every week or month or so. -Paul
[2022-05-24 14:56:16] - a: Not always exactly that easy with taxes (although my portfolio is in a Roth, so I don't have to worry about that) and transaction fees (although I typically get close to $0 trades). -Paul
[2022-05-24 14:55:34] - a: The mental exercise that I have found really useful is: "What if you woke up tomorrow and somebody had sold everything in your portfolio? What would you buy back and in what amounts?" If those amounts aren't close to what you currently have, you've probably got some anchoring bias or something going on. -Paul
[2022-05-24 14:25:59] - xpovos: "any investment is never really worth what we call the market price" i don't follow this part. it's not worth the market price because? because the current earnings don't justify the cost? something about juice and squeeze?
~a[2022-05-24 14:19:27] - a: A useful thought experiment. But the tricky part is that any investment is never really worth what we call the market price. Maybe it is for us small-timers. But realistically the concept of a market cap is broken. Tracking your actual money in that scenario is really hard. — Xpovos
[2022-05-24 14:05:04] - xpovos: another way i've been told to think about it is this: if i have $5k in some investment that has been doing really well, say tesla or bitcoin. WOULD i have put an initial investment of my own $5k into tesla or bitcoin? if not, then i should sell! ~a
[2022-05-24 14:02:45] - i agree there is loss baked in. but loss is loss? losing $1200 on one share of shopify that went from $1530 to $330, is exactly the same $1200 loss as someone who bought one share of shopify at $330, after it went to $1530, then back to $330. in other words: "playing with the casino's money" is a fallacy? i think we should treat all money the same. treating investment gains differently from an initial investment is a logical error? ~a
[2022-05-24 13:57:32] - I’m not sure buying at $1530 is just emotional. There’s some significant loss baked in there too. — Xpovos
[2022-05-24 13:55:26] - a: Yup. I agree. It's pretty much all emotional. -Paul
[2022-05-24 13:24:28] - paul: here's a hot-take: (not emotionally, but) logically your buy in price doesn't actually matter. losing $100 that you just gained on shopify is roughly equivelent to losing $100 on some new unrelated purchase (say, i dunno vti or vtsax or something). ~a
[2022-05-24 13:22:17] - Hah! At least I bought at $44.55. That helps. -Paul
[2022-05-24 13:09:38] - We should play another later where I have to play as black just to feel the difference. -- Xpovos
[2022-05-24 13:09:10] - a: Honestly, this game feels like it's entirely the advantage of white's initial move. I don't think you've made a single "mistake." -- Xpovos
[2022-05-24 13:03:36] - xpovos: you have me in quite the spot in our chess game. i've spent days trying to figure this move out. ~a
[2022-05-24 13:02:58] - xpovos: ha! i know we don't talk about this much here, but i like to buy-in with small amounts to limit exposure. for instance, i only bought $1k worth of shopify (at $81/share) back when paul first started talking about shopify. ~a
[2022-05-24 12:58:46] - Paul: That new EV does accelerate quite quickly... https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/uw4llw/when_your_friend_starts_driving_at_150_mph_and/ -- Xpovos
[2022-05-23 15:12:17] - a: That sounds like something I said but I don't remember a specific key phrase to search on. -Daniel
[2022-05-23 15:03:51] - a: Ha producers, the Obamas. Just a bit pro gov. -Daniel
[2022-05-23 01:09:52] - daniel: well they did it, those crazy fucking bastards. it's called the g word (and the executive producers are kindaaaa pro government). it's definitely not 100% pro-government. it's got pen and teller doing their shtick! episode 4 they're literally like, your public dollars go to create this thing that we all use. if you watch one episode, make it episode 4, but watch the other episodes too. ~a
[2022-05-23 01:06:51] - daniel: i tried to search the message board and couldn't find it. you had said something like . . . that the government should do better public relations? and advertise some places that public money goes? so people wouldn't be as anti-taxes as they are? like a psa or something? i didn't make this up, right? you said something like that? what should i search for? ~a
[2022-05-21 12:34:29] - a: I did not, but I also don't think I had much opportunity to. At most, I drove the kids to school and then went back home, which isn't very far. -Paul
[2022-05-20 18:55:32] - did you guys see anybody attending bike to work day this morning? i saw a few pink shirts in town today. ~a
[2022-05-20 17:41:24] - a: no, it's 100% related. It's pretty obvious. - mig
[2022-05-20 17:35:42] - mig: yeah that is interesting. maybe i shouldn't have posted about it here, but it still felt very relevant to elon's motivation to say what he did. ~a
[2022-05-20 16:57:57] - it is interesting that the major outlets have barely any coverage on the allegations. CNN has a story but it's buried as a side link. Everyone else I can't find it anywhere on their front page- mig
[2022-05-20 16:21:00] - https://twitter.com/ChristianWalk1r/status/1527457691949334528 Heh, I don't take this seriously at all (ie, there could be a good reason for the seemingly coincidental timing), but it's a good joke. -Paul
[2022-05-20 15:08:36] - mig: haha, ok, they do now. but yesterday, i felt similarly to paul. oh wow! i guess elon is switching sides because the democratic party has finally gone too far! paul has been trying to warn (us?) liberals about this for awhile. but now it's finally happening. nothing at all to do with a major hit piece on elon coming out. in other words, it's cool that you saw this coming, but paul and i were fooled. ~a
[2022-05-20 15:07:42] - Daniel: Every single damn game when I am Terran, I start thinking: "Now's the game I do medi-vac drops or liberator harass".... and every damn game I forget about it. -Paul
[2022-05-20 15:07:08] - Daniel: Like the lurker thing, or trying to counter with speedlings while hitting his mid-left base. Or even trying to get into his main. -Paul
[2022-05-20 15:06:45] - Daniel: Good job against Vibe. It's so weird. I can logically see a bunch of stuff you could've done differently while re-watching, but I also 200% know I wouldn't be able to come up with those things in the heat of battle. -Paul
[2022-05-20 15:00:41] - a: to me, his tweets are screaming "hey a hit piece on me is coming." - mig
[2022-05-20 14:56:33] - Daniel: Yeah, that blast door thing in Dr Strange 2 was so obvious and weird. -Paul
[2022-05-20 14:48:47] - mig: how is that getting out in front of the story? ~a
[2022-05-20 14:42:05] - I think it's less distraction and more just getting out in front of the story. - mig
[2022-05-20 14:19:51] - a: Oh, yeah. That was the motivation there. Do I think it was a lame distraction attempt? Maybe. Or maybe this is coming to light now because of his tweet? I dunno. There's been a lot of accusations against Tesla and Musk for lots of reasons and usually they don't pan out, but I guess we will see for this one. -Paul
[2022-05-20 14:08:52] - mig: noted. thanks. paul: "so you got on this because of elon, right?" i meant this time. this time you brought it up because of elon. of course you've been on it "for awhile", which is why i quoted your whole thing. but i meant you brought it up yesterday because of elon. ~a
[2022-05-20 13:58:14] - Daniel: Watching the stream now. -Paul
[2022-05-20 13:57:49] - a: "so you got on this because of elon, right?" Nah, I've thought this for awhile. I had a Facebook post about it right after the last election but honestly I kind of thought Trump's election was the first signs of this kind of blowback. -Paul
[2022-05-20 13:54:24] - I don't want whoever wins the every 4 year election 51% to 49% to completely reshape everything to their preferred worldview and rollback everything done before. -Paul
[2022-05-20 13:53:42] - and yes, I get that those are technically not anti-democratic moves, but I do think it moves us further away from our system of checks and balances and more towards a world where we swing wildly from election to election where whichever party is in power has absolute power and abuses it. -Paul
[2022-05-20 13:52:47] - a: I honestly don't know which side is worse. Both sides claim elections are stolen and don't accept the results. Both sides gerrymander. Both sides abuse the filibuster and play partisan games with judicial approvals. Republicans have Jan 6th, which is obviously bad, but I think all of this talk about abolishing the electoral college and packing the Supreme Court is pretty bad too. -Paul
[2022-05-20 13:39:56] - paul: I know this guy's whole thing is just to make fun of stuff but I think he goes through several of my same gripes with Dr Strange: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDsRjbqZFUw -Daniel
[2022-05-20 11:57:17] - That doesnt make it false, but forgive me if im a little skeptical of the veracity. - mig
[2022-05-20 11:56:08] - a: it should be noted that this story is 100% hearsay. - mig
[2022-05-20 04:06:15] - a: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/1488369588 Near the end, not sure how to timestamp it starts around 6:11 into the stream. -Daniel
[2022-05-20 03:16:39] - paul: "this is the kind of thing I have been trying to warn about to liberals for awhile. I think a lot of moderate dems are really turned off by the excesses of the far left in terms of wokeism, cancel culture" so you got on this because of elon, right? actually it was a lame ploy to distract from this? ~a
[2022-05-20 03:10:43] - mig: i agree you have good points, thank you. i'd reply that democrats suck at gerrymandering so now (some of them) are trying to fight back by making gerrymandering difficult. "Starting in 2021, following voters' approval of the Redistricting Commission Amendment, Virginia's maps will be drawn by a 16-member bipartisan commission composed of 8 legislators and 8 citizens" link ~a
[2022-05-20 03:07:50] - daniel: wtf, wow! do you have a video?! ~a
[2022-05-20 02:28:53] - a/Paul: Just played Vibe on stream. He wanted to make an example against a plat player, so I volunteered. I lost (obviously) but was fun. -Daniel
[2022-05-19 21:41:05] - I think the both sides doing it is sad though as it provides an out where people can just throw up their hands and say "Both sides suck" instead of "Both sides suck but one sucks more" -Daniel
[2022-05-19 21:39:43] - Its like the prisoner's dilemma. If R's were the only ones who did bad things they would just win even more I think. Which is a sad sentence and I wish no one had to do any of those bad things. I 100% think that R's do it more / harder / more conviction etc because they are forced to by being the minority party and having to get creative to not just completely loose power outside the senate. -Daniel
[2022-05-19 21:37:47] - -Daniel
[2022-05-19 21:37:44] - I think miguel's points are valid and are part of how we got here (broadly speaking)today where honestly a lot of politicians suck in varying degree and don't answer questions clearly / dodge questions, try to do things to ensure re-election (donations / gerrymandering), appease base (attack ads / political appointees). However I think all of that normalizes it some and lets R's ramp it up while still pointing at D's doing it some too.
[2022-05-19 21:28:34] - I've been told many times after the last presidential election is that to question the results of an election is to undermine democracy, but this person is somehow the biggest star within the democratic party. - mig
[2022-05-19 21:24:21] - Supreme court hands out decision we don't like? Pack the court till we get the results we want. - mig
[2022-05-19 21:21:31] - democrats do in fact love gerrymandering. - mig
[2022-05-19 21:19:35] - a: "which party do you think is actively undermining these things?" Both are, to varying degrees. - mig
[2022-05-19 20:45:13] - paul: if i concede those things, still, what democrats are actively screwing over democracy? what democrats are like: stop counting votes. or: let's oppress minorities. or: let's to ignore democratic ideals or democratic norms. or: partisanship doesn't stop at what's illegal. or: a straight up coup is on the table (a 3rd presidential term, or keeping him in power despite losing an election). or: gerrymandering is good. ~a
[2022-05-19 20:35:40] - paul: ok, i probably deserve shit for posting this at 16:30, but i'll try anyways. let's ignore politics for a second, and look at literal democracy: voting, managing elections, funding campaigns, and the press that covers these topics. which party do you think is actively undermining these things? even if i hard-concede with you that voting should be very-DIFFICULT and restrictive, and elections should have UNLIMITED money in them... ~a
[2022-05-19 18:29:32] - a: I'm trying not to screw it up. Probably the biggest issue is the kids haven't had a ton of exposure outside of a few geographic areas. Mostly the DMV area and California. -Paul
[2022-05-19 17:58:20] - paul: i think boy scouts (specifically, camping away from parents) and sports helped me be a less sensitive person. honestly, i bet the message board / instant messaging helped at some level, too. i'm not sure how common camping is for each generation. ~a
[2022-05-19 17:55:12] - paul: i guess we're all shaping how the next generation behaves at some level, but i feel like you have a more hands-on ability to shape at least a small portion of the next generation. good luck!
~a[2022-05-19 17:30:59] - a: Yeah, I always find it hard to generalize by "generation". Like, sure, it FEELS like *shaking fists* those damned kids are too sensitive to me, but I also know plenty of people my own age who I think are too sensitive AND younger people who aren't. -Paul
[2022-05-19 17:24:42] - paul: nah. but for clarity: 1. i think OUR cohorts are fairly sensitive (i wouldn't say "too" sensitive, but you know, i'm just trying to smooth out an average of a huge group of people). 2. i def don't have my finger on the pulse of anything, so my opinion on this should not carry any weight. ~a
[2022-05-19 17:22:44] - a: Wait, so do you think any group younger than us is more sensitive? -Paul
[2022-05-19 17:21:24] - https://twitter.com/reason/status/1527332869357850624 I know I'm probably the only person who loves these.... but I love them so much. -Paul
[2022-05-19 17:14:26] - paul: yeah people they have on npr constantly harp on open windows (in homes) being a good thing when you have guests over. i wear a mask on public transportation and lyft etc, so i probably wouldn't bother. ~a
[2022-05-19 17:08:13] - paul: yeah, sorry i guess my thread was deleted. ~a
[2022-05-19 17:07:51] - paul: "Maybe they weren't watching?" ok, so if you changed it from people-10-years-younger-than-us are more sensitive than our cohorts are, i'm not sure i agree. i think there has been no change in sensitivity in that band of ages. (but otoh, i'd agree that those 20 years older than us are less sensitive) ~a
[2022-05-19 16:48:32] - https://twitter.com/j_g_allen/status/1527322994787622919 Wonder if this is true. It makes sense, but I'll be honest, I never once considered rolling down my windows to help prevent COVID spread. -Paul
[2022-05-19 16:48:10] - a: Which political figure caused it to be locked? -Paul
[2022-05-19 16:46:39] - a: Hmmm, yeah, maybe I am off by 10 years? Is it our generation who is overly sensitive or people 10 years younger than us? Regardless, South Park was still around at that time. Maybe they weren't watching? -Paul
[2022-05-19 16:34:06] - i'm trying to figure out which of these images are good and which are bad. each image is really close but a bit off, and i have a hard time putting my finger on what exactly i'd change. i'd probably leave the pageant-winner out. because, unless you're considering child-pageants it feels dated. ~a
[2022-05-19 15:26:18] - paul: your examples are a off to me? *we* grew up with south park (in 1992, we were 10-11, in 1995 we were 13-14) and family guy (in 1999, we were 17-18). or, maybe your point is that we are the generation that is overly sensitive to everything? i'm not sure. ~a
[2022-05-19 15:15:54] - mig: The thing I can't get is that it seems like the same generation that is so overly sensitive to everything is the same generation that grew up with South Park and Family Guy. Hard for me to square those. -Paul
[2022-05-19 15:15:18] - a: We're going to need a lot more of these mornings for me to get back to where I was.
-Paul[2022-05-19 15:14:38] - a: The primary reason why I think wokeism is a different beast than PC is because political correctness still seemed like it was mostly about color-blindness being an ideal and not overly focusing on race (if it cared much about it at all). Wokeism, on the other hand, honestly seems pretty close to racism to me, where it puts a huge emphasis on race over the individual. -Paul
[2022-05-19 15:14:33] - paul: it's hard to say. she was being sarcastic, but that doesn't mean she didn't mean for those words to be taken seriously. ~a
[2022-05-19 15:13:23] - paul: very weird market this morning. arkk (+5%), s&p500 (-1%), vxus (+1%). i don't usually see these big of a divergence. ~a
[2022-05-19 15:13:07] - a: My guess is Nina used the word seriously and not as a warning. -Paul
[2022-05-19 15:10:10] - safe space and microaggression! i forgot about those. searched for those two as well. safe space(s) is nina, and microaggression(s) is miguel. ~a
[2022-05-19 15:06:43] - paul: there’s been almost a generation of college kids who have been coddled with the concept of “safe spaces” and “microagressions”, it’s not surprising now that these people have grown up that they have a entitlement to try and excommunicate anyone they don’t like from society at large. - mig
[2022-05-19 14:35:54] - paul: i searched for cancel culture, woke/wokeism on the message board. 100% of the *first* uses of these words are you (not terribly surprising, considering). whereas, i reply with stuff like this (2019): "my guess is that cancel culture isn't long for this world" ~a
[2022-05-19 14:33:03] - paul: "why would anybody think re-packaging it and trying to sell it again is going to work?" ha well, i guess people will try everything? maybe it's a sign that i'm getting old, but wokeism always seemed like a wonky concept to me. and cancel culture i guess i could get behind, but it'd need to be done with some sense of logic and equity, and i think logic and equity were always right out the window from the gate. ~a
[2022-05-19 02:59:12] - is there a theoretical maximum limit for shootings? maybe if we convert every atom in the universe into a bullet? this is fine. ~a
[2022-05-19 02:10:38] - a: I feel like wokeism / cancel-culture are slightly different beasts than being PC, but I can see your point. Either way, if it was hated back then, why would anybody think re-packaging it and trying to sell it again is going to work? -Paul
[2022-05-19 02:09:44] - https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1527092111195226114 Biden's gaffes are old news now, but let's not forget the original master himself: GWB. -Paul
[2022-05-18 20:47:11] - paul: republicans AND middle america hated political correctness in the 90s. and now they hate "cancel culture" and "woke-ism". cancel culture and woke-ism ARE political correctness under a new name. i feel like literally nothing has changed in the last 20 years. ~a
[2022-05-18 19:01:43] - But as much as I detest his end decision... this is the kind of thing I have been trying to warn about to liberals for awhile. I think a lot of moderate dems are really turned off by the excesses of the far left in terms of wokeism, cancel culture, etc. I think Trump's historic unpopularity masked how unpopular dems are getting too. -Paul
[2022-05-18 18:57:19] - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1526997132858822658 Ugh, Elon apparently is still stuck in the two party mindset. -Paul
[2022-05-18 18:56:55] - Daniel: Skytoss is pretty hard to counter if you let them get there. -Paul
[2022-05-18 17:57:45] - a: "protoss is best" - clearly your most radical position. -Daniel
[2022-05-18 17:45:34] - yah, gotcha. my beliefs on governments are a bit more mainstream than yours. where i disagree with the average person, its on stuff that just annoys them: metric system is good, highway expansion is bad, maga is bad, protoss is best, and shit like that. ~a
[2022-05-18 17:27:39] - a: I think I am terrible at it too, based on the number of times I thought I was leading off with a mild point and it instead blows up into: "I guess we are no longer friendly".
-Paul[2022-05-18 17:25:24] - "leading with something that might close off discussion" yeah, i'm probably terrible at this. i often start of from the most shitty debating style of finding places where we disagree first.
~a[2022-05-18 17:23:26] - in contemporary monarchies, the king and queen have no real power and are purely ceremonial roles. . . . probably that fits pretty well too, right? ~a
[2022-05-18 17:20:52] - a: I think of it more like a monarchy. King and Queen and underlings who have to absolutely obey. -Paul
[2022-05-18 17:20:00] - a: Also, sometimes I might want to temporarily obscure where I think something ranks? Like, maybe I'm talking to somebody who thinks Trump is absolutely THE WORST president ever hands down and would not be receptive to hearing that maybe there have been some who are worse and I want to just start with baby steps and common ground instead of leading with something that might close off discussion. -Paul
[2022-05-18 17:19:01] - paul: is your household run as a communist society? i noticed that my cat lives entirely on food that i provide it even though he doesn't earn a living wage himself. from each according to his ability, i guess? ~a
[2022-05-18 17:13:54] - a: I would guess not. The common saying in libertarian circles is that a libertarian society would allow a communist sub-section in it, but a communist society could not allow a libertarian sub-section in it. Sounds accurate to me, but maybe I am missing something. -Paul
[2022-05-18 17:10:09] - a: For maximum accuracy, sure. But I think there's usefulness in brevity sometimes too. Like, if we're debating HOW bad of a president Trump is, then sure, let's get into the nuance and nitty gritty. But if I just want to talk about.... why people should vote Libertarian next election or something and I wanted to say Trump and Biden were both bad... I don't think I need to say they were... 36th and 39th worst or whatever. -Paul
[2022-05-18 17:09:09] - "maximizes personal freedom for the most people" yeah that's a good start, i like it. i wonder if we could have a free communistic society. it'd probably be hard . . . since opening a business that you manage and run entirely seems antithetical to everything being owned by the people. ~a
[2022-05-18 17:06:25] - paul: "Like, I should be able to just say Trump is a bad president..." no i'd disagree with you there too. i'd instead say he's not the worst president the united states has ever had. it's useful because very rarely are terrible things the "worst", and comparing things and nuance almost always leads to greater understanding. ~a
[2022-05-18 17:02:22] - a: I'm leery of leaning too heavily on "will of the people", since the will of the people can be tyrannical just as much as a dictator. -Paul
[2022-05-18 17:01:22] - a: Definition of a good government? Oof. That's tough. Mine would probably be very biased towards my politics in that it would be one that maximizes personal freedom for the most people. I'm sure holes can be poked in that definition, though. -Paul
[2022-05-18 16:59:48] - a: Yeah, sure, I don't disagree, but it just feels like it makes the conversation too cumbersome. Like, I should be able to just say Trump is a bad president, without also having to say, "well, of course there have been other bad presidents as well, including some who are arguably worse because they owned slaves or perpetrated the trail of tears" -Paul
[2022-05-18 16:57:00] - paul: i like daniel's definition of a good government but it seems a bit subjective. mine is an ass-backwards definition, but much less subjective. do you have one? ~a
[2022-05-18 16:51:21] - paul: i don't consider it throat clearing. it's context. if you say that communism is bad with no additional context, then the obvious response is: fuck man, your perfect democracy was full-on-genocide right out of the gate! yes, i'll agree that communism is generally worse in every way measurable, but saying it's "bad" doesn't due your side justice. ~a
[2022-05-18 16:41:21] - Daniel: "I don't think its inherently evil" I'm on the fence. If any type of government could be considered inherently evil, I would put communism in there, but I'm also fine if we're going to have nuance and say no type of government is inherently evil, but all can be used for evil purposes. -Paul
[2022-05-18 16:39:55] - a: "if i were to talk about communists doing some very bad things, i'd also want some context of the non-authoritarian governments doing very bad things" Eh, I don't know if I agree. Not everything needs to have a throat clearing of "well, of course, bad things have been done by non-communists too". We're fine blanketly saying fascism or dictatorships are bad with no additional context. -Paul
[2022-05-18 16:35:44] - I think the overall idea of US gov is solid though the EC and Senate are a bit out of wack but I do get the idea of trying to give geographic space / resources some weight (kind of - I'm most conflicted on this I think) but I think we messed up when we capped the number of reps. Thats led to some of our issues. -Daniel
[2022-05-18 16:33:48] - I think a good government represents the will of the people while potentially trying to lead in "good" way or trying to encourage some sort of "good" change. However people generally disagree on the specifics of "good" as I think we've shown here on the msg board. -Daniel
[2022-05-18 16:32:45] - a: lol -Daniel
[2022-05-18 16:29:29] - fuck, now i want to debate communism! "I don't think its inherently evil" maybe paul needs to take the other side: i'm not even sure how to define a "good government". zero genocides doesn't even seem to be the line really, does it? maybe instead, zero genocides in the past century? ~a
[2022-05-18 16:24:48] - Yeah I don't think we really need to debate communism and I would say its definitely seriously flawed but I don't think its inherently evil but that it definitely has been used by very bad people. -Daniel
[2022-05-18 16:20:02] - paul: if i were to talk about communists doing some very bad things, i'd also want some context of the non-authoritarian governments doing very bad things. like, for example, hypocrisy can be avoided with just a few extra sentences. ~a
[2022-05-18 16:12:56] - Daniel: And I feel like those people are probably unfamiliar with Mao, at the very least. -Paul
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