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[2022-08-01 14:50:46] - xpovos: how long is your commute (on a good day) compared to driving (on a good day)? ~a
[2022-08-01 14:49:43] - https://twitter.com/wmata/status/1554022904261738501 This put a real jam in my commute this morning. It's already long enough, but because they couldn't complete the repairs in time, I got to transfer twice extra, including extra wait times. Probably +30 minutes to the travel time for this. It's fixed now, so unless we get a repeat, I should be fine this afternoon. -- Xpovos
[2022-08-01 14:49:33] - paul: well here's a thing for you to noodle on: is this the first time that's ever happened? amd's stock price increase has been smaller than intel's since a few times in the 90s. (early 1992 to today and early 1993 to today). i'm still not sure if that means their market cap was higher back then though. calculating market cap is sometimes weird i think? ~a
[2022-08-01 14:48:12] - a: I hadn't seen the Blue (and Orange and Silver lines, but I don't care about them, and this is a self-centered thing) line news about more regular trains. That is good news. I'd assumed it was a post-pandemic ridership decision based on cost, rather than running cars availability. Buuuuuttt... -- Xpovos
[2022-07-30 03:11:18] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/amd-passes-intel-in-market-cap.html This is mind-boggling to me. -Paul
[2022-07-30 03:10:38] - a: Not sure I remember the context for that conversation. I guess that's the case? -Paul
[2022-07-30 03:07:40] - a: I hear Mexico is paying for it. -Paul
[2022-07-29 18:09:08] - paul: i was reading over a conversation from january and i think i let this part of our conversation slip through about cost basis: "How else do I figure out my capital gains?". aren't you told what your cost basis and proceeds are for every sale through a broker? i feel like on almost every trade i've had through a broker, they told me my cost basis unless something crazy happened (goog vs googl for instance). ~a
[2022-07-29 17:48:48] - paul: will it be beautiful? ~a
[2022-07-29 17:47:41] - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/biden-administration-fill-border-wall-gaps-yuma-arizona-rcna40567?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma Build the wall? -Paul
[2022-07-29 16:04:15] - But EV demand already seems to be stripping supply and even with the changes it seems like this will be subsidizing wealthier people. Not sure this will do much other than distort and already distorted transportation market. -Paul
[2022-07-29 16:03:01] - a: I'm just as skeptical as I presume you are. Oh, and it's supposed to solve inflation to? I think? Somehow? I dunno. Like I said, people on twitter are crazy optimistic about it. -Paul
[2022-07-29 15:16:24] - oops needed a comma in there. there are more of them. and they're heavier. they aren't "more heavier". ~a
[2022-07-29 15:15:51] - paul: "solves climate change" solves climate change with more heavier cars? sounds cool with me. ~a
[2022-07-29 14:52:06] - a: Fair. It's been labelled a big deal for the Democrats and lots of political twitter people are going crazy about how it solves climate change so I thought you might know a bit about it. -Paul
[2022-07-29 13:50:22] - i closely follow the news that only affects metro riders (like the news i posted yesterday). that and pedestrians. ~a
[2022-07-29 13:47:56] - hmmm, legislation that only affects car owners? and more-so, only electric car owners? i think you're the one i'd ask about that. ~a
[2022-07-29 03:09:54] - I don't follow the intricacies of legislation that much. How annoyed should I be about the new EV tax credit considering I let the current EV tax credit (ie, Hyundai was qualified and Tesla wasn't) influence my buying decision? -Paul
[2022-07-29 02:59:41] - a: No idea how. I'm not that devious.
-Paul[2022-07-28 21:02:10] - finally some happy news in washington dc yay! ~a
[2022-07-28 17:55:39] - a: depends very much on the text of the bill. Loopholes tend to always be crafted there. Which you can get away with since lawmakers don’t generally read the bills they vote on unless they are very personally invested in the details. - mig
[2022-07-28 17:04:45] - "I'm positive members of congress will find ways around it somehow" any thoughts on how exactly? already there are tons of people that are prevented from buying certain equities. if it's your job to do IT acquisitions for the us gov, you're allowed to buy shares of mcd but you're strictly not allowed to buy shares of nvda. yes, you can probably (physically) ask your friends to buy shares of nvda *for* you. but then it's a conspiracy. ~a
[2022-07-28 16:10:43] - a: Yeah, I'm positive members of congress will find ways around it somehow. I know I have a very biased segment of twitter that I follow, but this kind of stuff has been making a lot of noise lately with the whole Pelosi NVDA investment while voting on the chip legislation. Not surprised there is at least a bill proposed to calm things down. -Paul
[2022-07-28 14:33:40] - wow. i have zero hopes that this will go anywhere good, but oh my god, is this the most surprising headline you've seen in a while?! ~a
[2022-07-26 16:50:32] - mig: Ah, the joys of our two party system and first past the post voting. -Paul
[2022-07-26 14:53:02] - daniel: Everyone does seem convinced the DCCC are doing these ads for Gibb's (maga guy) benefit. - mig
[2022-07-26 14:49:04] - daniel: The intention appears to be to boost Gibb's name recognition within the state to get him competitive w/ Meijir. These ad's audience are GOP primary voters, so the "too conservative" and "trump-y" is seen as a plus for those voters (in theory). - mig
[2022-07-26 14:45:12] - mig: I agree with the principle of what you are saying. I'm confused by the article though since it says the DCCC ad says the maga candidate is to conservative for the district? I didn't watch the ad but the characterization in the article makes it seem negative towards the maga candidate? -Daniel
[2022-07-26 14:38:08] - I just find it very difficult to reconcile that maga pols are one of the greatest threat to democracy while at the same time providing aid and comfort to them, in the name of benefiting the dem party. - mig
[2022-07-26 14:37:20] - https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/25/house-dems-meijer-gop-primary-00047750 this has been brought up before, but maybe worth bringing up again. Is this ethical? (obviously it's 100% legal) Bare minimum this feels like bad civics. - mig
[2022-07-26 14:31:18] - mig: ugh yes. "appreciate everyone’s patience while the incident is thoroughly investigated" people would be patient if they thought justice would be served. when justice is so rarely reached in fatalities involving the police, then patience is also rarely deserved? ~a
[2022-07-26 14:22:17] - title: https://www.cabq.gov/police/news/apd-releases-update-on-death-related-to-house-fire you know what really bugs me. Nowhere in this statement is "we're sorry" or even a lesser "we regret". This has been a constant when shit like this happens and it's rather maddening. - mig
[2022-07-26 14:12:21] - title: reading the details. yikes. - mig
[2022-07-26 13:47:55] - A lot rides on what I turn that 1st and 2nd round pick into. -Paul
[2022-07-26 13:47:19] - Daniel: Sometimes. Secret negotiations behind people's backs. Knowing I will disappoint at least one person I am talking to when I go with another offer.... Thanks. It hurts to lose Kupp, but I feel like this helps diversify my talent while giving me some potential in the draft that I didn't necessarily have before. -Paul
[2022-07-25 21:18:23] - paul: Do Fantasy Football trades ever remind you of Diplomacy? Not a bad overall haul for you. -Daniel
[2022-07-22 15:54:47] - return on investment? ~a
[2022-07-22 14:34:40] - new ford f-450 comes with shotgun in case truck doesn’t kill pedestrian on impact ~a
[2022-07-21 16:09:33] - three ghost bikes installed in dc this weekend. oof. typically we usually get one or two per year, but things have been especially bad recently. ~a
[2022-07-21 15:16:07] - lol, i was "yay"ing your last comment. but sure, i can yay both. ~a
[2022-07-21 15:15:48] - yay. ~a
[2022-07-21 15:14:21] - https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1550123805854482434 y-i-k-e-s - mig
[2022-07-21 15:09:49] - a: I agree on more protections for all people. - mig
[2022-07-21 15:08:35] - mig: in general we need to have protections for all people. but we don't need to have MORE protections for certain people. (sthey, heh) ~a
[2022-07-21 15:07:50] - Though I would say bringing the charges they want to bring against Trump (i.e incitement) would have a pretty high threshold even if (s)(t)he(y) were not famous and/or political prominent. The thresholds for that are already pretty high. - mig
[2022-07-21 15:07:20] - mig: and honestly that seems like a great policy. but i wish we * also * had policies that protected specific needs of mundanes as well? like DoJ should have a standing policy of not making decisions about charging/not charging people 60 days before a pregnancy (or something along those lines? something with a similar way of thinking that also protects people that aren't currently running for federal office?). ~a
[2022-07-21 15:05:58] - We treat cases with political figures much differently than we treat mundanes. That's kind of just how it is, however much we prefer it doesn't. It expands to just about all aspects unfortunately (hello congress people insider trading!) - ig
[2022-07-21 15:04:52] - https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/20/politics/hunter-biden-investigation-critical-juncture/index.html apparently the DoJ has a standing policy of not making decisions about charging/not charging people 60 days before an election if it's political sensitive and especially if it involves a candidate or their immediate family. - mig
[2022-07-21 14:54:51] - . . . at least not in the direction we want them to. ~a
[2022-07-21 14:53:49] - true. i fully expect neither of the thresholds to move though. ~a
[2022-07-21 14:51:34] - Maybe the thresholds should just be more uniformly applied even against non-ex-POTUSes. Might solve a whole lot of George Floyding. — Xpovos
[2022-07-21 14:46:39] - mig: i agree with everything you say, but it's always irked me that legal thresholds seem a bit higher on some crimes than others. if he wasn't the ex-president would we be waiting this long to charge him? and if so, does that make sense? ~a
[2022-07-21 14:44:53] - a: "you come at the king, you best not miss". They're not bringing charges against Trump until they are 99.9% sure they will get a conviction. If they bring charges and don't get a conviction we might almost be assured of Trump 2024. Not sure they are there yet on evidence. Legal thresholds are high by design, as much as we can hold him political and morally responsible for 1/6. - mig
[2022-07-21 14:25:47] - "I frankly thought it was a bad bet for me at the time" i know we discussed this before, but i also thought it was a bad bet for me at the time
it's amazing we made the bet considering. ~a[2022-07-21 14:24:43] - paul: right i knew goog was all over the challenges, but not so much in 2022. ~a
[2022-07-21 14:23:52] - mig: "I'm surprised he doesn't call people up daily" and here i am surprised he still hasn't been charged with anything. ~a
[2022-07-21 14:23:15] - (xpovos: if you want an apples and apples comparison i recognize that you're not going to sell your car in any of the scenarios. so there's that. but on the other hand, depreciation does change based on mileage) ~a
[2022-07-21 14:18:52] - xpovos: yeah you might need to more than triple or quadruple (or more?) the gas-based rows. i noticed that, averaged over a bunch of years, my gas prices were something around 20% of my total car costs back when i had a short, but strictly car-based, commute. (depends on how many costs you want to include, rampant discourse reminded me that depreciation is just the start. there are also opportunity costs when you make a big purchase) ~a
[2022-07-21 12:05:09] - Even with the VRE going free for two months I'll have to pay $8.30 daily for Metro transit, plus the drive costs for the Woodbridge VRE, which are not zero, but are almost insignificant compared to the transit costs. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-21 12:02:59] - https://imgur.com/5wYItco This is the result. It doesn't sum the transit portion and the drive portion because I only just added the drive portion so I could compare for you a little better. Assumptions built into driving: only factors fuel, not wear and tear/depreciation/insurance, etc. Assumes $3/gal long term price. Assumes I maintain my 30-35mpg in my vehicle. Big error bars. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-21 11:52:12] - I built a spreadsheet yesterday exploring the individual cost elements of each different style of transit commute I could consider and cross-referenced if I got 1 or 2 days a week of telework, which has been discussed but can't be promised and may vanish. So I need to keep a flexible mindset. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-21 11:50:57] - The absolute financial costs of commuting by car would still be much lower, but there is zero on-base parking, and getting a parking ticket every day would quickly exceed the added costs from transit. Add in some extra stress and I'll only be driving the whole route if it is necessary for other reasons. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-21 11:49:49] - a: No, I work in Bethesda now, essentially. So I'll go to zone 1. It's $9.25 full fare, one way for the VRE for that ride at current prices. I can get an 8% discount with multi-ride packs, or buy a monthly pass that ends up breaking even at about 16 roundtrips. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-21 03:14:38] - a: Did anybody have GOOG in fantasy investing this year? Or was it just for historical stock market challenges? I didn't see it in this year's spreadsheet. -Paul
[2022-07-21 03:13:02] - a: In a more general sense, I'm on a bad losing streak for notable bets. I lost the COVID CFR one, I was horribly wrong about the never made Roe bet. Now these three are looking bad for me too. -Paul
[2022-07-21 03:11:55] - a: I think the ARKK bet is in the bag for you (I frankly thought it was a bad bet for me at the time and it obviously looks worse now). I still think I have a shot at the technology side of the FSD bet (I know you disagree), but obviously the $$ side screws me. -Paul
[2022-07-21 03:11:06] - a: Sorry. Been on vacation this week (crazy past few weeks). 2025 bets are exciting because there's still enough time for anything to happen. BTC bet is back in play despite it looking like a runaway win for me earlier. -Paul
[2022-07-20 21:36:41] - a: I mean he literally has all the time in the world I suppose. I'm surprised he doesn't call people up daily. Or maybe he does and this is the first we've heard about it. - mig
[2022-07-20 20:14:46] - (xpovos: without the free fair, i guess vre isn't worth the price? ~$6 per ride is more than you pay in gas and parking and depreciation and maintenance and ezpass and oil changes and car insurance and property taxes and registration? $6 comes from 237/20/2 between zone 2 and 5. you live in zone 5 and work in zone 2 still?). ~a
[2022-07-20 19:26:03] - xpovos: yeah, i heard about that too! i figured it was because they were breaking metro. (in the summary they literally point out "Metrorail service disruptions"). also, i'm very glad to hear you talking about VRE. i remember our conversation last week where you said "my commute is 5 hours roundtrip right now" and i was startled. i wasn't sure how to reply in a way that would be productive. at the time i didn't even consider VRE. ~a
[2022-07-20 19:22:47] - what year is it? ~a
[2022-07-20 19:16:27] - I heard about this over the weekend. It's highly impactful to me. https://www.vre.org/about/board/board-agenda-minutes/2022/July/9c-promotional-free-fare-pdf/ -- Xpovos
[2022-07-20 15:07:07] - paul: goog split. (and gme is to split this week, but i don't see that anywhere in the fantasy investing) ~a
[2022-07-19 19:54:52] - i love the grand theft auto image . . . life after moving to the netherlands starter pack ~a
[2022-07-18 19:06:45] - Kanawha was on my TIL list as well. I like it better than “West Virginia,” for sure. — Xpovos
[2022-07-18 18:59:52] - i bet above-ground parking garages are less common in dc (compared to other cities) because of that law. ~a
[2022-07-18 18:58:33] - kanawha. heh. never heard of that. ~a
[2022-07-18 18:49:25] - More innovative solutions: turn DC into the city of the moles. Build down! — Xpovos
[2022-07-18 18:47:54] - xpovos: that is a very interesting map. factoid that i didn't know from that time: west virginia (the new state) sent apx the same number of soldiers to join each side (22k vs 25k). even though the state was split on the matter, many west-virginians joined the confederate army. ~a
[2022-07-18 18:36:48] - https://www.docsteach.org/documents/document/map-of-virginia-showing-the-distribution-of-its-slave-population-from-the-census-of-1860
[2022-07-18 18:34:26] - xpovos: sorry, speeding is not going down overall. and i didn't mean to imply it was: i was just talking about on specific roads where lanes were narrowed. ~a\
[2022-07-18 18:33:35] - xpovos: i couldn't get to your link. try opening it in a new browser. (maybe send us the original link? i think maybe that link requires a header.) ~a
[2022-07-18 18:33:05] - daniel: "account for the Alamo and other historical sites around town" accounting for it is fine, but limiting the height of all the buildings is just crazy. ~a
[2022-07-18 18:33:00] - a: I'm not seeing personal evidence that speeding is going down. The pandemic seems to have encouraged risk taking behaviors in other areas and speeding seems to be up. Enforcement seems to be down, though. Which is likely both pandemic-related, and a pullback due to evidence of enforcement being done on a discriminatory basis factoring into things like BLM. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-18 18:31:11] - xpovos: arlington+alexandria has a high population density, but not higher than dc. dc would definitely get over a million then though. ~a\
[2022-07-18 18:30:58] - Found this random map, and it struck something, so I'm sharing. Numbers in each county are the percentage of persons living in that county who were enslaved c. 1860. https://us-east-2-02850030-view.menlosecurity.com/c/0/i/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZG9jc3RlYWNoLm9yZy8vaW1hZ2VzL2RvY3VtZW50cy82ODYwNzMzL29yaWdfNjg2MDczM18yMTA1My5qcGc_dj05 -- Xpovos
[2022-07-18 18:28:12] - apparently San Antonio has a simliar-ish rule where buildings have to account for the Alamo and other historical sites around town. I kind of get it but also it seems limiting to forever box yourself in too. -Daniel
[2022-07-18 18:27:38] - xpovos: if we can have taller buildings, i'm fine making the washington monument taller. ~a
[2022-07-18 18:26:58] - xpovos: i'm glad we agree on this. lots of people pushing fsd assume it'll be here tomorrow. i'd prefer to push for a different long-term: 5-10 years from now. like, while i'll still likely be alive. we've already started making (non-highway) lanes less wide TODAY. and it's working. fewer people are dying. speeding is going down. i'm not sure if total crashes are going up or down, sorry. ~a
[2022-07-18 18:26:55] - I wonder what the population becomes if you include the chunk of Virginia that got retroceded, if DC population grows significantly. That portion of Virginia has very high population density overall. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-18 18:23:53] - a: Innovative solution for DC high rises. Elevator shoes (not really, but bear with me) for the Washington Monument. Nothing can be taller than that. So... just make it taller. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-18 18:22:41] - a: FSD might be something that only comes around, certainly in large numbers, after we have died. I hope not, but we still don't have flying cars, either. And likely never will. So sometimes our technological dreams ARE dead ends. FSD would not decrease my commute because there is no parking available. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-18 17:49:13] - paul: lol i just looked at our three 2025 bets. such exciting bets! it's anybody's game! (except the fsd one, i'm definitely winning that one) ~a
[2022-07-18 17:39:18] - daniel: yeah it's a pretty small city, to be honest. thanks to more federal overreach if you ask me. ~a
[2022-07-18 17:37:32] - xpovos: unrelated to the other things you said, it just occurred to me: do you think fsd would decrease your commute? ~a
[2022-07-18 17:36:04] - xpovos: "they might be the best long-term solution, still". i predict this will become ubiquitous, (90%+ of car drivers), if ever, then well after you and i die. i'd bet that we're more likely to see something, first, like car insurance companies have, where your speeding/driving-style changes the price of your insurance. ~a
[2022-07-18 17:09:13] - a: Moderately surprised, Nova does have a lot of people living there and a lot going on. I am mildly surprised that DC doesn't even have 1mil in terms of pop though. -Daniel
[2022-07-15 23:39:27] - In personal happy news my new boss said that magic t-word today, as we will begin to explore potential telecommute options, which given that my commute is 5 hours roundtrip right now, is definitely nice. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-15 23:38:27] - Better options include: removing point B from the equation (e.g. telework), moving points A and B in relation to one another so as to make a different method of transit possible or preferable (earthquake? Maybe teleportation) or changing the paradigm so that I no longer want to get to point B. As long as we need transit, and the points are "far" apart, cars win. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-15 23:36:13] - That is: I need to get from point A to point B in as little time as possible = car. Now with this new road design, I still need to get from point A to point B in as little time as possible. The answer may still be car! But now it will take longer and be even more stressful. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-15 23:35:05] - a: Narrowing lanes might also help in other ways, I could be convinced. But I foresee a situation where more accidents occur, but are less deadly/damaging. That's good for life, but bad for transit, because every accident snarls the road so much. Frustrating the purpose of the vehicle by design seems therapeutic, but is bound to be so unpopular as to never pass muster. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-15 23:32:02] - a: I haven't been in any Tesla ever. The closest I've come to automated driving is theme park attractions, which are very predictable, pre-programmed examples. I acknowledge the systems are insufficient at this time, but I think they might be the best long-term solution, still. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-15 18:41:56] - paul: well this is one of the best times to be actually analyzing your spending! if your spending is anything like mine, you'll see that 50% of your spending will STILL affected by inflation despite all of those things you just said. (and even HIGHER than 50% if you count property taxes indirectly being set by governments that will be very affected by inflation). 50% isn't 100%, but still. it isn't 10% either. ~a
[2022-07-15 18:12:08] - a: I am torn about inflation. Obviously it's bad in general, but how bad is it for me? I have a decent amount of debt. I've fortunately locked in a low mortgage rate and a decent car loan rate. Solar panels protect me from energy cost increases and the EV protects me from gas price increases. I've got some iBonds and Crypto (latter should protect from inflation even though it hasn't lately). -Paul
[2022-07-15 18:10:35] - a: Tech offsite. Honestly, we mostly met with other Truebill people and not so much with Rocket people, but Rocket was the reason we met in Detroit. -Paul
[2022-07-15 18:01:42] - paul: "that it remained pretty bad last month?" yeah, true. but i think we're all hoping that it goes down instead of up. (except those of us with lots of debt) ~a
[2022-07-15 18:00:11] - business trip, paul?! tell us about it. why were you there? new business or old business? were you acting as a manager, or an engineer, or other? ~a
[2022-07-15 17:59:17] - a: Sorry, I was out of town the past few days on a business trip. Detroit is surprisingly not as horrible a city as I thought it might be. It's a little weird to me how big a deal people make of the inflation numbers considering it is all backwards looking. Didn't we all already know inflation was pretty horrible for the past year? And that it remained pretty bad last month? -Paul
[2022-07-15 16:27:00] - daniel: is it surprising that r/nova is bigger than r/washingtondc ? in terms of active users, and posts, and comments, etc. i figured it would be the other way around. population wise / area wise, obviously nova is bigger. (fuck, even fairfax county > washington dc, in population and area. wow!) ~a
[2022-07-15 14:13:22] - xpovos: my preferred solution is changing the lanes. skinnier lanes ironically makes people die less. also it's counterintuitive, but fewer people die when you put things closer to the roadway (trees, barriers, turns in the road-way). this whole time we were stupidly ignoring this and making wider and wider lanes with things further and further away from the lanes as possible because we thought it was safer when the opposite is true. ~a
[2022-07-15 13:49:43] - "I’m willing to compromise" me too. is anything else on the table? ~a
[2022-07-15 13:47:27] - xpovos: "genuinely better solution would be to push for fully autonomous instead" have you been in Tesla's fsd? 1. It's terrible. Worse than humans. That will probably not change any time soon. 2. It still let's you speed. 3. Other competitors with fsd are decades or more away. 4. It's prohibitively expensive. ~a
[2022-07-15 11:27:40] - Whether such a restriction is a good choice that government should make for a group of individuals rather than just being a decision everyone comes to on his own independently because it’s logical, except in case of dir need, which would be impacted negatively, I’m less convinced. But I’m willing to compromise. — Xpovos
[2022-07-15 11:26:15] - On the EU speed thing, it’s messy. I don’t think the tech to detect regional speed requirements is ready; if it were a genuinely better solution would be to push for fully autonomous instead. I’d be more OK with a blanket limiter. No car sold in the EU can go over 150kph, e.g. Since extreme speeds exacerbate the deadliness of any crash and the drag follows cubed, this is helpful. — Xpovos
[2022-07-15 04:02:50] - mig: yes that's what people said here previously. on the other hand, i'm not sure if the comic is referring to minimum wage or not. the comic says "reserve bank". ~a
[2022-07-15 03:59:26] - a: are we talking about with re: minimum wage? - mig
[2022-07-14 19:30:29] - sorry, i was making my own interpretation, but yes. people have made a similar argument *here* unironically. ~a
[2022-07-14 19:04:22] - a: “increasing wages will only exacerbate inflation" is there anyone actually making this argument unironically? - mig
[2022-07-14 16:11:39] - ha, no? it's one of those "increasing wages will only exacerbate inflation" is a terrible take if you're *also* watching the drastic increase the wages of upper management. which seems to be very different from your interpretation. ~a
[2022-07-14 15:16:14] - a: is this one if those “inflation is the fault of corporate greed” takes? - mig
[2022-07-14 15:06:35] - inflation jokes. i mostly don't agree with the basis of the joke, but it still made me smile. ~a
[2022-07-13 15:23:32] - paul: market feels a bit "meh" about the high inflation numbers today. i guess it's weird, though, with high inflation, people moving "out" of the market wouldn't exactly make sense, right? what's more, if the market stays nominally flat on high inflation, the market is getting smaller in real numbers. (still not 22%) ~a
[2022-07-13 14:53:31] - mig: 1. unnecessary how so? seems very necessary to me? considering motor vehicle deaths are the leading cause of deaths in healthy people? or kids. or (etcetera) 2. decreases. you have this exactly backwards. decreases. less permanent disability = lower insurance. 3. pedestrians aren't on highways . . . so . . . ok? 4. "is speeding even the leading cause of crashes anymore, or has distracted driving caught up" i don't know. ~a
[2022-07-13 13:52:47] - leigt question, since I don't know: is speeding even the leading cause of crashes anymore, or has distracted driving caught up? - mig
[2022-07-13 13:51:30] - 1) it seems unnecessary. 2) following that increases the price of vehicles (why do they hate poor people?) 3) if this keeps me at posted speeds on the highway I'll be pretty unhappy about it. - mig
[2022-07-13 02:05:12] - why? ~a
[2022-07-13 01:35:58] - a: thumbs down, probably. - mig
[2022-07-12 21:43:31] - thoughts? ~a
[2022-07-12 17:16:45] - i am a taco. ~a
[2022-07-12 16:45:42] - https://twitter.com/nahj/status/1546646559529508865?s=21&t=_c9ZD6ucGU71SK0jgucOEA “we are not tacos”. amusing post of the day. - mig
[2022-07-11 17:00:13] - that sounds right yes. ~a
[2022-07-11 16:59:28] - a: i'm trying to remember timelines, but I think even for adults vaccines were scare back early 2021? - mig
[2022-07-11 16:12:50] - mig: impossible because the kids weren't allowed to get the vaccine at that time? ~a
[2022-07-11 16:00:59] - https://www.vox.com/2021/2/15/22280763/kids-covid-vaccine-teachers-unions-schools-reopening-cdc - mig
[2022-07-11 15:59:08] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/01/25/fairfax-county-should-open-schools-or-stop-vaccinating-teachers/ from fairfax county. First the demand was teachers being given priority on vaccinations. They were given that, then they demanded 100% student vaccination, which at the time was probably impossible. - mig
[2022-07-11 15:31:55] - mig: "unreasonable demands placed by teachers" can you be specific about those demands? (and why you think they are unreasonable?) ~a
[2022-07-11 15:29:55] - a: For one, schools probably could have been safely opened far sooner than they actually did. It's been talked about here before but there was constant goal post shifting and unreasonable demands placed by teachers on conditions for reopening. - mig
[2022-07-11 15:12:01] - paul: no? why not? did the schools do something wrong? i'm not being a jerk, i'm actually asking. the schools, many of them, were stuck between a rock and a hard place. the covid learning loss has been a global disaster, but what would you have changed to make it better? ~a
[2022-07-11 15:11:01] - a: Not most of the ones the schools were listening to, apparently.
-Paul[2022-07-09 20:33:40] - not sure about the media, but the "experts" predicted this. ~a
[2022-07-09 14:56:42] - https://www.economist.com/international/2022/07/07/covid-learning-loss-has-been-a-global-disaster Sounds like the experts / media are finally catching on to what parents have known for awhile already. -Paul
[2022-07-09 01:24:33] - things are pretty distasteful all around. ~a
[2022-07-09 01:24:12] - yah. ~a
[2022-07-09 00:52:34] - putting out bounties like this also seems pretty distasteful. - mig
[2022-07-09 00:19:18] - a: provided the protestors are on public property, probably. If the protestors start keeping tabs on individuals and try to hound them at restaurants and stores, then i start having issues. - mig
[2022-07-08 20:39:14] - mig: do you think people should be allowed to go into a planned parenthood without protestors protesting on the street outside the planned parenthood? ~a
[2022-07-08 20:37:52] - https://twitter.com/shutdown_dc/status/1545421407223521280 this strikes me as a bad idea. - mig
[2022-07-08 18:22:49] - sorry, care only about making money ... in the short term. often times making money does align with the environment when you're thinking long-term? for instance if i was the CEO of xom, and i was tasked with *only* considering the long-term, we would probably be able to reorganize xom to make money in the long term by pivoting away from burning of petroleum. ~a
[2022-07-08 18:18:03] - paul: i don't know. i'm mostly concerned with xom, bp, and cvx because of their sheer size of contamination. but imo there are others that are an issue on a smaller scale. formosa plastics is the one i know the most about (ticker symbol TWSE:1301?). formosa plastics gives zero shits about the long term at the highest levels of management, and care only about making money. ~a
[2022-07-08 18:13:33] - a: "companies that will likely destroy the earth if they had their way" Curious what companies fall under this? I assume many petroleum companies. What others? Tobacco companies might have their issues but destroying the Earth doesn't seem to be one of them. -Paul
[2022-07-08 16:46:04] - daniel: "I'd also point out that 'beating the market' isn't always a goal" yeah, i agree with this a lot. but i'm not talking about volatility as paul mentions. more like: how much less money will i make if i don't have to invest in companies that will likely destroy the earth if they had their way. 0.1%/year? more? less? ~a
[2022-07-08 16:40:10] - paul: "Unlikely I find a fund that matches my own preferences exactly" this seems to be your gripe about etfs in general though, right? ~a
[2022-07-08 15:35:37] - a: Agreed that ESG can. That seems obvious. Less clear on should. I just find the "too many definitions" to be too problematic. Unlikely I find a fund that matches my own preferences exactly. -Paul
[2022-07-08 15:33:57] - Daniel: Yeah. Good point. I'm still in "beat the market" age, but some day I'll likely be in "less volatility than the market" age. -Paul
[2022-07-08 13:42:00] - I'd also point out that "beating the market" isn't always a goal. I'm very pro index fund and they don't have a goal of beating the market. -Daniel
[2022-07-07 21:09:11] - paul: the total market can't ignore laws, but it can ignore long term sustainability (and to a lesser degree, morals). will that make you more money? only sometimes. ~a
[2022-07-07 21:07:12] - paul: "can (and maybe even should) beat the market" i'll argue that it can. and that it doesn't matter if it does or not? but "would" or "should" seems a bit too futuristic for me. ~a
[2022-07-07 21:04:46] - paul: i agree everybody has different definitions. which is why a "score" makes no sense to me. unless the score is going to be multidimensional. i prefer the way that i found out about it. where there are tons (thousands?) of different funds to choose from. every fund has its own goals, its own metrics, its own expense ratio, etc. should X trump Y? both yes and no! ~a
[2022-07-07 21:01:45] - a: You don't have to read them all. It's just an example that there is more info beyond a single article. -Paul
[2022-07-07 21:01:29] - a: "is ESG supposed to beat the market?" I think some of the criticism of ESG is exactly what it stands for and what it is supposed to accomplish. I've seen some claim that ESG can (and maybe even should) beat the market. Should a diverse BoD trump a "green" business? Can a cannabis company be ESG? Alcohol? Gambling? Everybody has different definitions it seems. -Paul
[2022-07-07 19:20:01] - paul: i read the first few paragraphs of your first link (institutionalinvestor). maybe i missed the memo, but is ESG supposed to beat the market? i don't invest in ESG to beat the market. i invest in ESG because i can't stomach literally investing my own money in xom. or my own money in bp. or cvx. if the GOP was a stock, i wouldn't invest in them either. i don't care if they make money hand over fist. ~a
[2022-07-07 19:07:28] - i'm going to have a hard time reading all of those. ~a
[2022-07-07 19:07:22] - a: It's not just a "BP guy", and it's not some random thing Elon made up. -Paul
[2022-07-07 19:07:07] - a: https://news.yahoo.com/rise-fall-esg-investing-224944922.html -Paul
[2022-07-07 19:06:49] - a: https://hbr.org/2021/03/an-esg-reckoning-is-coming -Paul
[2022-07-07 19:06:23] - a: https://www.irmagazine.com/esg/how-sustainability-index-can-keep-exxon-drop-tesla-and-three-ways-fix-esg-ratings-meet-0 -Paul
[2022-07-07 19:05:49] - a: https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1hm5ghqtxj9s7/Where-ESG-Fails -Paul
[2022-07-07 18:37:57] - paul: so, i have no idea what you are talking about. your article talks about the ESG score, and i had never heard of such a thing as a "score". a score sounds very dumb to me. but i get that elon would highlight stuff that he thinks will get him air time. elon is going to elon. i had only heard of . . . funds that can each compete for my dollars, which makes much more sense to me. ~a
[2022-07-07 18:36:38] - paul: fwiw, ESGV holds tesla and does NOT hold oil companies (any that i could find). same goes for CRBN. (i did find chevron *very* far down on CRBN list, but i'm guessing it's under-weighted) ~a
[2022-07-07 18:29:37] - xpovos: yay! i'm glad it worked for you. i sometimes use kdenlive to edit videos, but i doubt it would work on a large video. (kdenlive uses ffmpeg) ~a
[2022-07-07 18:28:44] - paul: wait wait wait. a BP exec is who you meant by "people"?
~a[2022-07-07 18:26:54] - ffmpeg has been able to what I needed it to do. -- Xpovos
[2022-07-07 17:54:02] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-20/energy-crunch-causing-esg-to-fall-out-of-favor-warns-ex-bp-ceo -Paul
[2022-07-07 17:53:30] - a: https://fortune.com/2022/05/18/tesla-sp-esg-index-exxon-elon-musk/ -Paul
[2022-07-07 16:33:27] - paul: "it's kind of losing favor among people lately" who? "oil companies are included and Tesla is not" oh? which one? ~a
[2022-07-07 16:19:09] - a: "i'm happy that some investors are coming to be more conciensious of what things they invest in" Funny, because from what I've been hearing ESG seems like it's kind of losing favor among people lately because it seems odd that things like oil companies are included and Tesla is not. -Paul
[2022-07-07 16:18:11] - a: "also, everyone was always down with that being the plan" Not sure what "the plan" that you are referring to here is, but I think this is obviously wrong. -Paul
[2022-07-07 16:17:29] - a: "that's just like . . . your opinion, man" Wasn't intended to be my opinion. It was my question. And I thought the answer was, "It doesn't seem to prevent transmission". -Paul
[2022-07-07 15:28:28] - a: I'm familiar with socially conscience aware investing yeah (assuming thats what those funds are). -Daniel
[2022-07-07 15:25:53] - https://www.foxnews.com/politics/january-6-committee-defends-hutchinson-doesnt-detail-plans-verify-claim-trump-lunged-usss-agent jfc this was so avoidable. How do you fuck this up? - mig
[2022-07-07 15:21:05] - a: i knew andrew. pretty sure he was not a sophomore fill in. - mig
[2022-07-07 15:11:18] - paul: i know andrew. i think we were fb friends back when i used facebook. he did de-friend me and i'm not sure why. why do you mention it? i think you've gotten in online discussions with him in the past. no? should i care about tjaag? was andrew a sophomore-replacement? i have vague memories that he was. ~a
[2022-07-07 15:08:32] - paul: maybe? the focus on making money at the expense of literally everything else is something that i've grown to dislike more and more over time. i'm happy that some investors are coming to be more conciensious of what things they invest in. the fact that vanguard has ESGV and blackrock has CRBN is kinda neat imo. daniel, have you heard of esgv or crbn? ~a
[2022-07-07 15:05:13] - "I mean 'transmission' in the sense that once somebody has it, it doesn't seem to help prevent them from transmitting it". that's just like . . . your opinion, man. i say we focus on all the ways of stopping transmission including keeping people from catching it. also, everyone was always down with that being the plan. ~a
[2022-07-07 12:46:21] - https://www.tjaag.org/team Is anybody here friends with Andrew Hayes on Facebook (or were friends with him in real life)? Apparently he's the president of one of the interest groups fighting over TJ. -Paul
[2022-07-07 12:45:44] - a: You think any of those are more appropriate than more simple and less niche topics like inflation or supply and demand? My target is kids, not democratic activists.
-Paul[2022-07-07 12:45:02] - a: It only helps transmission in the sense that it helps prevent others from catching it. I mean "transmission" in the sense that once somebody has it, it doesn't seem to help prevent them from transmitting it. -Paul
[2022-07-06 21:05:51] - paul: since i don't want to be combative, this is what i did *not* reply to on your twitter account with: "What should Penny learn about next?" . . . "supply chain pollution, socially responsible investing, banks that lend money to global warming polluters. or i dunno, percentages or something?" ~a
[2022-07-06 17:27:39] - paul: "vaccine helped prevent transmission" sorry, maybe we should focus on this part then. it does help prevent transmission. fewer people catching the virus means it *does* help prevent transmission. (iow, if it helps you transmit it before or after catching the virus is irrelevant here) ~a
[2022-07-06 16:57:52] - a: The side I am arguing is that I was skeptical of most of the vaccine mandates, but more sympathetic when I thought the vaccine helped prevent transmission so it was easier to argue that unvaccinated people were putting people in danger. I think it's a sketchier argument for me that certain subsets of people are more likely to have COVID and therefore we can ban those subsets of people. -Paul
[2022-07-06 14:44:53] - paul: the covid vaccine works. sorta. and it kept millions of people from dying. maybe even hundreds of millions. and we didn't even have to oppress the gays or the muslims. ~a
[2022-07-06 14:43:50] - paul: which side are you even arguing? that we shouldn't ever be required to make any choices or even live with the choices we do make? ~a
[2022-07-06 13:51:18] - a: Or, you know what? People who have gay sex are more likely to have monkey pox. We okay with limiting where people who have gay sex go? -Paul
[2022-07-06 13:49:47] - a: Okay, how about if a specific religion is more likely to have COVID? -Paul
[2022-07-06 13:49:05] - a: You always come back to this "you can't choose your....". I don't get why you think that's always some trump card. Is it always okay and good to discriminate as long as it's something people have control over? -Paul
[2022-07-06 13:47:40] - a: "you can't choose your gender" Transphobe. -Paul
[2022-07-06 13:47:03] - https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/HHP_June2022_KeyResults.pdf I thought there were some interesting results in this poll. On page 15, it's interesting to see how some approval of organizations line up (Twitter is down with Russia! Amazon near the top). Also some interesting results on abortion starting on page 38. Not quite the landslide for pro-choice as I thought it might be. -Paul
[2022-07-06 13:46:22] - paul: you can't choose your gender, or your race, or your affluence level. id make an analogy for you but it almost seems too easy at this point. ...fine, i'll do it: people shouldn't need passports to travel internationally, or drivers licenses to drive, because what's next? what if men are safer drivers? requiring men drive a car or fly as pasingers in a pla? or one race? you're analogy is terrible and removes *all* choice we can make. ~a
[2022-07-06 13:09:35] - a: "vaccinated people carry the virus less?" Oof. That's what it comes down to? Count me as far more skeptical of all those restrictions based on vaccine status, then. What if one gender was more likely to have COVID? One race? One affluence level? Gets messy really quick. -Paul
[2022-07-05 17:18:34] - paul: (my worry is very different from yours: i worry that efficacy drops a fuckton after vaccination. but, i only have anecdotal data to back this worry up) ~a
[2022-07-05 17:17:54] - paul: no? if efficacy high, vaccinated people carry the virus less? ~a
[2022-07-05 17:16:15] - So.... it doesn't necessarily help prevent spreading it to others if you have a breakthrough case? Doesn't that somewhat throw a wrench into that whole debate over requiring people to be vaccinated to go places? -Paul
[2022-07-05 15:58:22] - mig: i agree. but i don't think that shows up in the efficacy numbers. ~a
[2022-07-05 15:57:45] - i thought it was also shown to reduce the impact of the virus if it broke through particularly in the immuno-compromised. - mig
[2022-07-05 14:54:03] - paul: i thought "efficacy" always measured *catching* the virus. ~a
[2022-07-05 14:53:00] - Did we ever figure out the science behind if the COVI vaccine helps prevent transmission? I thought that was part of the argument all along, but Gurkie just said that she thought it only helped to prevent catching it. -Paul
[2022-07-05 14:21:39] - paul: amen. you can add percentages in some situations, but definitely not this time. ~a
[2022-07-05 14:21:11] - Daniel: Watched the SC2 stalker video. Well played by Reynor, obviously, but I can't help but think if I tried any of those aggressive blink forwards then it wouldn't work out nearly so well for me. Every time I try them, I end up losing all my stalkers and killing virtually nothing. Seems odd Skillous didn't build a few more immortals to wipe out the stalkers. Seems like a more surefire bet than carriers. -Paul
[2022-07-05 14:19:47] - https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1544009925394849792 Wait, what? That's not how percentage work! -Paul
[2022-07-01 20:48:47] - a: I get the..... FU aspect of it. Like: "You want war? Let's go scorched earth!" I think as I've gotten older I am less enthusiastic about those kinds of displays that seem like they are solely attempts to give the biggest middle finger possible to the "other side" and instead prefer attempts to change minds and be nice to people I disagree with. -Paul
[2022-07-01 20:45:26] - https://twitter.com/SCOTUSblog/status/1542964962632540161 A follow-up from a comment about SCOTUS decisions that I made a few weeks ago: Still plenty of non partisan line decisions with scrambled alignments.... but there has been a steady decline of 9-0 decisions. -Paul
[2022-07-01 20:42:08] - paul: ok, then maybe we semi-agree. i like irony as much as the next guy, but i probably wouldn't risk my job to teach FSM to my kids as a schoolteacher. if someone wants to, i say more power to them. i wouldn't call it bizarre, but that's because i sense a negative connotation with that word. ~a
[2022-07-01 20:38:17] - a: bizarre != not allowed. Civil disobedience is fine. But shouldn't the disobedience be consistent with your principles? If you think this kind of prayer should be illegal, then why make that central to your protest? Did Rosa Parks protest by trying to get whites to sit in the back of the bus? Or did she do what she thought she should be allowed to do? -Paul
[2022-07-01 20:34:54] - paul: if you don't think civil disobedience should be allowed (or encouraged), i don't even know where to go from there. ~a
[2022-07-01 20:33:17] - paul: it's a classic civil disobedience demonstration. i don't think the late term abortions is a good analogy, but the other one about . . . like the satanic temple for example. or fsm. or literally any form of satire. it's social political expression that often has a valid point. ~a
[2022-07-01 20:31:33] - a: That would be like pro-life people protesting Roe by going out and having a bunch of late term abortions or something. That'll show 'em! -Paul
[2022-07-01 20:30:43] - a: "this isn't bizarre" Unless those people are satanists.... I kind of think it is. What's the thinking? "I don't think somebody should do this, but SCOTUS says it's allowed, so I'm going to do this thing I think shouldn't be allowed AND do it in the way I think will offend the most people"? -Paul
[2022-07-01 20:30:20] - mig: "'were his rights to free expression violated' does trump all those" i have a right to free expression even if it violates other people's rights? ~a
[2022-07-01 20:28:50] - a: Does it help? No. But like Miguel said, I think the point is more if being an agent of the state (etc, etc) means you give up some freedom of speech. -Paul
[2022-07-01 20:28:48] - a: you're right about christians cheering this decision would be offended if a muslim coach started doing this. No doubts. Legally speaking though, I do think the end result of such a hypothetical case would be the same ultimately. Maybe Thomas would be inconsistent, but I doubt the other justices would. - mig
[2022-07-01 20:26:07] - a: you're points have merit, but I think the core question of "were his rights to free expression violated" does trump all those if the answer to that question is yes. - mig
[2022-07-01 20:23:57] - paul: "let's do our satanic post-game rituals now" this isn't bizarre. the people who are promoting this change that are *not* in the scotus will be highly offended by this. ~a
[2022-07-01 20:22:27] - paul: it doesn't help that he was 1. an agent of the state (school teacher) 2. on school property 3. during a school-sponsored event. 4. he wasn't just asked to stop, he was asked to do it during a time that wasn't school-sponsored 5. or not on school property. 6. or not done by an agent of the state. like he had so many options. ~a
[2022-07-01 20:22:06] - -Paul
[2022-07-01 20:22:02] - a: "i have a sneaking suspicion that the supreme court case would have turned out unanimously against the plaintiff" I've seen this opinion expressed a lot on twitter (although it's often been more like "let's do our satanic post-game rituals now!" which is a bizarre counter argument to me). Is there any reason to think the result would be different if it was non-Christian? Have there been recent SCOTUS decisions supporting that viewpoint? -
[2022-07-01 20:19:54] - a: "you seem to be missing half a dozen relevant facts" Oh, quite possibly. I admit I don't know everything about it. I heard he was told to stop and refused. I'm sure there's other stuff too. Still, seems like those things could be independent of tying attendance to playing time. -Paul
[2022-07-01 18:01:46] - mig: which inconsistency is worse? ~a
[2022-07-01 18:01:20] - mig: and i have a sneaking suspicion that the supreme court case would have turned out unanimously against the plaintiff. ~a
[2022-07-01 17:53:44] - at the same time I have a sneaking suspicion that if this coach was a non christian, a lot of these same people bringing complaints wouldn’t be, and those who did complain would be callled bigots. - mig
[2022-07-01 17:37:53] - a: at a bare minimum i can see a perception problem with what was going on and the prayer group feeling compulsory. I can definitely see why the school thought it was an issue. - mig
[2022-07-01 17:35:59] - paul: but definitely nothing about him seems to be a jerk, i'm not sure where the hell that came from. ~a
[2022-07-01 17:29:25] - paul: "lead a prayer session". you seem to be missing half a dozen relevant facts. those half a dozen relevant facts make me question his other decision making processes. ~a
[2022-07-01 17:20:47] - I’m looking through the prayer case now. It seems … complicated. I can see myself arguing for both sides. - mig
[2022-07-01 17:19:05] - a: "think about the kind of guy that would do this" Lead a prayer session? That automatically makes him a jerk? -Paul
[2022-07-01 16:53:35] - paul: "too ignored" maybe you're right, but the big decisions here will change people's lives i a big way (imo negatively). ignoring the rest of the decisions is bad, i agree, but i also wouldn't ignore the big decisions either. ~a
[2022-07-01 16:51:53] - paul: "if playing time was reduced" how could it possibly not be? i mean, think about the kind of guy that would do this. he knows this shit was (then) blatantly illegal. he's *def* going to reduce playing time of people not participating. ~a
[2022-07-01 16:49:14] - a: For those who didn't participate. Also, I'm a believer "big" decisions have too much weight placed on them and smaller decisions are too ignored. For example, from what I've heard it's been a bad term for criminal justice reform. So yeah, maybe I'm more in favor of some of the decisions that got a lot of press, but it's not a slam dunk thing. -Paul
[2022-07-01 16:44:19] - a: "don't you agree with the four major decisions we've gotten the past week?" Kind of? It's more nuanced than that. I don't really want abortions totally banned, but I do think it probably should be legislatively decided and not a constitutional matter, so maybe a technical victory? I'm not sure about the prayer in school thing. I've heard conflicting reports on how public/private it was and if playing time was reduced... -Paul
[2022-07-01 16:16:40] - I think there’s definitely some intersection allowed for the “i support gun regulation” and “this ny law is too extreme” viewpoints. - mig
[2022-07-01 16:14:33] - a: i dunno, provided the reality that the 2nd amendment is a thing the Bruen decision should be noncontroversial. We aren’t talking about red flags or specific weapon bans. Having to prove a “need” just to be able to carry a handgun outside the home seems like a nonstarter constitutionally. - mig
[2022-07-01 14:53:46] - a: dobbs i have reservations. Bruen i think might be the only decision im super down with. I don’t know enough details about the other 2 to say for sure on them. - mig
[2022-07-01 14:31:26] - paul: "My issues often seem to be on a one way trip backwards" except this time, right? don't you agree with the four major decisions we've gotten the past week? you agree with dobbs, and the epa thing, and the gun thing, and the prayer in schools thing, right? seems like you're undefeated this week? ~a
[2022-07-01 13:46:25] - ‘s fault than hers but that might be a problem for a potential prosecution if her testimony is all they have going for it. - mig
[2022-07-01 13:45:52] - that’s more the committee
[2022-07-01 13:45:23] - a: hutchinson’s testimony is admittedly compelling but it was could unfortunately be poisoned by having her recount an incident from hearsay that seems like it never happened. - mig
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