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[2022-09-16 21:05:23] - paul: it's crazy to me that you'd call this a "smart political move". do the ends justify the means? do ethics not matter at all if you win your election? ~a
[2022-09-16 21:04:11] - paul: what's up? ~a
[2022-09-16 21:03:52] - Just a heads up that I likely won't be checking the message board much, if at all, next week so apologies in advance if anybody tags me in something and I don't respond for a stretch. -Paul
[2022-09-16 20:02:22] - There's definitely nuance that is worth noting, but this seems like a smart political move by DeSantis in that the optics are pretty bad for super wealthy liberals with the "In this house we believe..." signs who are basically freaking out over 50 migrants being shipped their way. -Paul
[2022-09-16 19:48:37] - Can someone reconcile the "Martha’s Vineyard has styled itself as a “sanctuary destination” that welcomes migrants" then? I find it hard to believe the articles i'm seeing this in are fabricating it. - mig
[2022-09-16 18:29:49] - a: "what's YOUR theory of how it played out if they weren't lied to?" No idea. It's kind of a weird situation. Maybe these people were caught by law enforcement and DeSantis said, "You can be thrown in jail or we'll fly you to Martha's Vineyard where they might treat you nicely"? -Paul
[2022-09-16 18:28:32] - a: To be clear, I am not saying Martha's Vineyard is a sanctuary city. I kind of assumed it was not, honestly. -Paul
[2022-09-16 18:01:37] - Xpovos: "At best they have mutually aligned goals" Yes, that's a better way of phrasing what I meant. Thanks. -Paul
[2022-09-16 17:20:36] - a: "Hey want to go to New England where they have declared themselves a sanctuary city and might help you more?" "Sure!". I can see that being the conversation that was had. I don't think it has to be complicated and I imagine they could find volunteers to go north? -Daniel
[2022-09-16 16:59:16] - paul: "Also, is Martha's Vineyard a sanctuary city?" i don't know, is it? i linked two places where it's very distinctly not listed. if the government doesn't designate it as such, and there's no evidence that it is a sanctuary city, i feel like the burden of proof is on you if you say it is. ~a
[2022-09-16 16:57:51] - mig/paul/xpovos/daniel: sorry i've been away all day! i'll try to get to some of the things. "I have not seen evidence that they were lied to, no" neither have i "A lot of how I feel about this begins with that" me too. "Was it at gunpoint?" no "Were they lied to?" i don't know. i'd have a hard time understanding the scenario where they weren't lied to though. what's YOUR theory of how it played out if they weren't lied to? ~a
[2022-09-16 16:36:39] - Paul: DeSantis is very smart and very savvy. But I don't think it's reasonable to characterize anyone he bussed as "on his side." At best they have mutually aligned goals. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-16 16:32:57] - paul: "Martha’s Vineyard has styled itself as a “sanctuary destination” that welcomes migrants" I have seen this in one form or another in various articles, but I don't really know if there's any authority that speaks for the various villages/towns that are on the island in a official capacity. Clearly somebody or some entity did though in at least an unofficial one. - mig
[2022-09-16 16:32:56] - Xpovos: If DeSantis was smart, he would've handpicked people that are on his side and not going to complain about their treatment. Makes the stunt a bit misleading, but also dampens the charges of kidnapping. -Paul
[2022-09-16 16:23:28] - Paul (maybe others): the article indicates that journalists attempted to talk to the migrants (in Spanish) and were basically ignored. They don't want to talk. That doesn't mean they are/aren't victims/willing, though it'll be spun both directions by those already biased. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-16 16:12:40] - https://twitter.com/willcain/status/1570792434287910912 And if it was human trafficking to ship them from Florida to Martha's Vineyard, then what is it now? I mean, I do agree it's a bit cruel to be using these people as pawns, but I do think there's a good point being made. -Paul
[2022-09-16 15:59:55] - Paul: I tend to think so as well but I guess we'll see in the next week. I have to imagine reporters are checking on that. -Daniel
[2022-09-16 15:58:40] - Also, is Martha's Vineyard a sanctuary city? One thing I saw is that, "Yeah, this is kind of a jerk thing to pull, but nobody forced these cities to declare themselves sanctuary cities" -Paul
[2022-09-16 15:57:46] - Daniel: It's a little telling to me that we haven't heard much from the migrants themselves. At least I haven't seen anything in the coverage I've read. I feel like if they were coerced in some way we would be seeing reporting of that. -Paul
[2022-09-16 15:57:33] - I get also that maybe transporting undocumented immigrants is an illegal thing but I do think its different for people sneaking illegal migrants around vs governors distributing migrants to alleviate overwhelmed systems. Again this would be better coordinated and if people are being forced I think it changes the story. -Daniel
[2022-09-16 15:55:35] - I'm generally pro distributing migrants to various places especially if everyone is on board and its being coordinated to some degree. I think them just showing in MV or wherever isn't a disaster or anything but certainly would be better if they had a heads up they were coming. I have trouble believing they were coerced / forced to go until something comes out to prove that. -Daniel
[2022-09-16 15:53:45] - That island isn't suffering from some unique hardship. Every area dealing with immigrants is overwhelmed. - mig
[2022-09-16 15:45:54] - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/migrant-surge-overwhelms-border-patrol-shelters-el-paso-rcna47588 it also seems weird to me to whinge about 50 migrants to Martha's vineyard while border areas are dealing with massively larger numbers or immigrants. - mig
[2022-09-16 15:31:25] - a: But even if it's the uglier thing and human trafficking... it's hard to see how it's much different than what we're already doing with "kids in cages" on the border (and this goes for both R and D admins). -Paul
[2022-09-16 15:30:32] - a: If it was voluntary, then this seems like an interesting political stunt which kind of calls the bluff of people who want to ignore the immigration problems we have and let border states have to deal with the fallout. If they were coerced? Then it's an uglier thing. -Paul
[2022-09-16 15:29:15] - a: Yeah, I want to hear from some of the people who were shipped up there. Was it at gunpoint? Were they lied to? Were they asked nicely? A lot of how I feel about this begins with that. -Paul
[2022-09-16 14:38:35] - I will also agree that DeSantis and Abbot's actions are also mean-spirited. - mig
[2022-09-16 14:35:18] - so yes. I'm with "stunt" or "owning the libs" but not human trafficking. - mig
[2022-09-16 14:31:52] - a: if they are being physically coerced, then yes, we have major problems. - mig
[2022-09-16 14:30:43] - a: I have not seen evidence that they were lied to, no. - mig
[2022-09-16 14:27:07] - mig: "political stunt" is actually what you would call this? you don't think there's a chance that those people were lied to before they boarded the flights? if i lie to someone to get them on my bus, when does it stop being a dumb political stunt lie and start to become human trafficking? ~a
[2022-09-16 14:25:43] - mig: you didn't answer my question. ~a
[2022-09-16 14:01:50] - calling this human trafficking seems a little absurd and hyperbolic. - mig
[2022-09-16 13:57:16] - a:https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/florida-flies-migrants-to-sanctuary-destination-of-marthas-vineyard "Martha’s Vineyard has styled itself as a “sanctuary destination” that welcomes migrants — a position it took early in former President Donald Trump’s administration." - mig
[2022-09-16 13:36:51] - a: I guarantee the purpose of the whole thing was not so that these people would get jobs there. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-16 13:07:35] - for context, arlington county has 50x the population density (3500 people/km^2 / 69 people/km^2) ~a
[2022-09-16 13:04:25] - xpovos: i've been to martha's vineyard a bunch of times. dropping a ton of people off there using a huge lie is really mean. there will be zero work for a fuckton of people on a sparsely populated island with no plan. ~a
[2022-09-16 13:00:56] - xpovos: well, i don't watch the news so much. so i'll just say, it's definitely not worse this time. not unless this is the first time they used a non-sanctuary-city (which i assume it's 100%, totally not, because union station isn't in a sanctuary city). so, anyways, all that is to say that your beef isn't with me. ~a
[2022-09-16 12:24:11] - a: I'm not saying the people in Martha's Vineyard weren't upset or complaining about Abbot's behaviours, I'm sure many of them were, but this news cycle seems to indicate that this time it's somehow worse. And that's my biggest beef. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-16 12:22:55] - a: I'm going to take the tack that the destination seems to be upsetting people too much, this time around. This particular flavor of political stunt isn't new. If DeSantis is engaging in human trafficking, so too is Greg Abbott. And he's been at it way longer. But instead of dropping people off at Union Station, now they're going to "rich people" areas, and that's when it crosses the line. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-16 11:51:30] - mig: if i lie to someone to get them on my bus, when does it stop being a dumb political stunt lie and start to become human trafficking? ~a
[2022-09-16 11:49:23] - mig: wait what? i don't see edgartown or oak bluffs on this list or this one. but actually, never mind, that doesn't matter. what bothers me much more: "political stunt" is actually what you would call this? you don't think there's a chance that those people were lied to before they boarded the flights? ~a
[2022-09-16 11:15:54] - I find it hard to believe that a community that well of can't absorb a mere 50 people and has to make them someone else's problem. - mig
[2022-09-16 11:10:27] - It's fine to complain about DeSantis's move but fucking own up to the obligations you made when you said you'd be a sanctuary city. - mig
[2022-09-16 11:06:38] - It's becoming pretty clear that a lot of Democrats (as always) love to virtue signal about caring about immigrants but when it comes to actual action they're like "please no." - mig
[2022-09-16 11:05:27] - a: Is DeSantis engaging in a craven political stunt? !00% yes. But it is equally craven to boast about your status as a "Sanctuary City" and then cry and complain when you actually receive migrants. - mig
[2022-09-16 00:00:40] - any thoughts on this move by florida governor ron desantis? ~a
[2022-09-14 16:49:39] - it's the historical mean over the last 150 or so years. yes i agree inflation has been low in the past decade. ~a
[2022-09-14 16:49:10] - a: 4% is still a bit higher than we had traditionally seen in the previous decade or so, though. -Paul
[2022-09-14 16:48:32] - https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/sfnext-poll-sentiment-17435794.php We talked about San Francisco awhile ago and I asked about the problems the city faced and I think the response was that they were problems most cities face. Here's some more evidence that perhaps SF is having notably more trouble. -Paul
[2022-09-14 16:48:04] - paul: no. i expect it to regress to the mean: 4%/year. ~a
[2022-09-14 16:47:41] - a: Do you expect persistently high-ish inflation for awhile? -Paul
[2022-09-14 16:16:51] - hmmmm yeah in that case I'll probably just keep opening new bonds instead of selling ibonds that I can't rebuy. unless/until rate-inflation difference gets really high. ~a
[2022-09-14 14:37:52] - a: Because the assumption would be the 6% was on the way down and the 4% is guaranteed for a bit longer. -Paul
[2022-09-14 13:55:03] - paul: "I could see transitioning" you'd like to switch from 6% nominal return to 4% nominal return? why. ~a
[2022-09-13 19:32:15] - a: "you mean returns greater than inflation rates?" At least close. I'm as paranoid about hyperinflation as anybody and I still think it'll eventually come down. If the inflation trend is downward and hovering around 6% or so and 18 month CDs are returning 4-5%? I could see transitioning. Do I expect that today or tomorrow? No. But 6-12 months from now when I might be considering selling my iBonds? Maybe? -Paul
[2022-09-13 18:34:45] - paul: "CDs if the fed keeps raising rates and we're finally seeing some juicy returns" you mean returns greater than inflation rates? i mean, obviously that would be nice some day, but i don't see that happening today or tomorrow. do you? ~a
[2022-09-13 18:06:10] - paul: sames - retirement I think. They are in theory supposed to be part of a cash cushion for the years between retirement and 59.5 when ira /401k options open up. -Daniel
[2022-09-13 17:21:15] - a: I can understand that. I think I'm going to want to sell fairly soon after the 12 month required holding period. Depending on where the economy and everything is at, I might want to either plug it into stocks or even CDs if the fed keeps raising rates and we're finally seeing some juicy returns. -Paul
[2022-09-13 16:57:44] - paul: i sell secondary bond market bonds regularly. whenever the market tanks and i want to rebalance. ~a
[2022-09-13 16:57:06] - paul: until i'm in retirement. it's not like a market-bond (secondary market) where i can sell for a profit. ~a
[2022-09-13 16:56:03] - Another hot CPI number. For those who own iBonds.... how long you planning on holding? -Paul
[2022-09-13 14:41:43] - I just realized it never said workplace in the original screenshot. Not sure how or why I added that. I guess the idea is that the world is more harmful towards women? Curious the evidence to back that up. Most stats I have seen seem to indicate men are more at risk in the world in terms of earlier death than women. -Paul
[2022-09-13 14:38:47] - a: "how society treats cyclists" Okay, I guess I can see that a bit more? Not sure I agree still, but maybe I am thinking of myself and not "society". I don't think of women in the workplace as second class citizens or anything, but I do think cyclists are out of place on roads and would agree they our roads are not at all set up for cyclists (that's part of why I don't like cyclists on the road). -Paul
[2022-09-12 19:54:36] - paul: i do feel like she was focusing on how society treats cyclists, not necessarily the expectations we have of them. in either case you shouldn't hit another car or another cyclist, or another person, with your car, i feel like all are pretty fragile. but in a city, you usually expect the cyclists to be the fast ones compared to cars that go slowly? ~a
[2022-09-12 18:02:48] - paul: yes! sent out an email - sorry it was late. -Daniel
[2022-09-12 17:37:10] - Daniel: Is there sc2 this week? I think I can play! -Paul
[2022-09-12 17:37:00] - a: I think even you would admit that bikes are slower, and cyclists are more fragile than motorists in cars. If I was being uncharitable, I would say this person was implying women are slower and more fragile.
-Paul[2022-09-12 17:36:14] - a: " no, you're not allowed to bike on 81" Okay.... doesn't that just go towards my point? I was thinking of this more... In a job, I basically treat a coworker the same whether they are male or female and would have the same expectations for both. That is very much NOT the case when I see a bike on the road. -Paul
[2022-09-12 15:45:24] - paul: oops you said "driving 20 mph on 81" my mistake. yeah, it's not the speed limit there though that will get you pulled over. ~a
[2022-09-12 13:21:15] - ... and you mentioned bikes can go under the speed limit, twice. ~a
[2022-09-12 13:18:45] - "In a practical sense, speed limits are often treated like speed minimums" this does very much go to the point of the original link.
[2022-09-12 13:17:39] - paul/mig: no, you're not allowed to bike on 81. ~a
[2022-09-12 13:11:57] - driving overly slow does seem like an invitation for a cop to pull you over, even on roads where there are no technical minimums. - mig
[2022-09-12 13:07:51] - a: In a practical sense, speed limits are often treated like speed minimums. -Paul
[2022-09-12 13:07:16] - a: I understand what a speed limit is, but you try driving 20 mph on 81 and see how long it takes before a cop pulls you over. There's such a thing as speed of traffic. -Paul
[2022-09-11 21:43:29] - paul: were you referring to posted speed minimums? ~a
[2022-09-11 20:47:36] - a: Some jurisdictions have roads that have speed minimums. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-11 16:54:00] - paul: "they often don't go the speed limit" the what now? I'm not sure you understand the speed limit law. speed limit is a maximum not a minimum. maybe you meant something different here? ~a
[2022-09-11 01:55:12] - These aren't intended to be criticisms, just examples of how they are fundamentally different from cars in way I don't think women are from men. -Paul
[2022-09-11 01:54:36] - a: Bikes often drive on shoulders. When they are on the road, they often don't go the speed limit. They can and often do ride on trails that cars can't and involve crosswalks that go across roads. They often don't have functioning brake lights or turn signals. -Paul
[2022-09-11 01:52:14] - a: I honestly wasn't thinking of any specific differences. Honestly, almost everything seems different. That's why I think it's a weird analogy. I understand in theory bikes and cars are supposed to be equal on roads, but in reality they are just very different. -Paul
[2022-09-11 01:50:24] - Xpovos: Yes, I am disagreeing that it is the law. Bikes and cars are treated differently on the road, regardless of if they're supposed to share it. Obviously speed limits don't apply the same way, for example. -Paul
[2022-09-09 20:52:49] - paul: or . . . is it more how you can hit someone with your car? ~a
[2022-09-09 20:52:39] - paul: that reminds me, you said we have bunches of laws explicitly treating cyclists and motorists differently. i def agree with you. but, i wonder which ones you were thinking of? you probably weren't referring to TAR+FTR from the archive.org link. i assume you're more thinking about how people on bikes can use crosswalks and sidewalks, etc in va+md+dc? they don't need speedometers? 3-feet passing law? dead-red? kids and helmets? ~a
[2022-09-09 20:44:49] - xpovos: with the genders version, the laws are explicit. people using bikes, the laws are murky (as seen in the archive.org link) ~a
[2022-09-09 19:52:00] - a: I'll be honest, and this lends credence to the significance of the analogy perhaps, I'm not sure in your description which is the explicit and unenforced law and which is the murky and unenforced law. I do think that the lack of strict enforcement leads to murkiness in general, though. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 19:39:30] - xpovos/paul: for what it's worth, she never mentions the law. it's like more abstract "supposed". yes, in one version of the analogy there are explicit (often unenforced) laws and in the other version the laws are murky (but also often unenforced). ~a
[2022-09-09 19:36:22] - The archive.org image a linked indicates that it isn't the law except perhaps in NC and Arkansas. So the analogy falls apart because of incorrect premises, then, not incorrect logic. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 19:34:16] - Paul: The fact that the law is stating equal treatment of bikes and cars is literally frame #2 of the analogy. You can disagree with whether that should be the law, or even IS the law. But assuming that it is the law, as this analogy does, the rest follows. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 19:26:44] - a: What "roads" are built for men that makes women take extra physical and mental effort to avoid getting hurt? And who blames women for when men hurt them? That sounds like a popular thing to say about society but every time I've seen anybody pull that they get shouted down pretty quickly. -Paul
[2022-09-09 19:25:44] - paul: "we have bunches of laws explicitly treating cyclists and motorists differently" a lot of these laws are bad and IMO many of them will change in our lifetimes. ha, it's . . . even literally called equitable biking laws (you can see that being unironically used in this image) ~a
[2022-09-09 19:23:49] - paul: why should i treat bikes differently because of the differences you mentioned? the number of tires and seats means you should treat them differently? is there a reason for that? ~a
[2022-09-09 19:23:49] - a: Like, we have bunches of laws explicitly treating cyclists and motorists differently, while on the flip side it's like super illegal to discriminate based on sex. I'm not saying everybody treats men and women the same, but I think in most places in America they are treated much more similarly than cyclists and motorists. -Paul
[2022-09-09 19:22:36] - a: "those people are treated differently" Right, and I think it's fine and good to treat cars and bikes (and by extension, the people who ride them) differently because of the differences I mentioned. Less good to treat men and women differently (and I also think they are not treated as differently, which is why it's a strange analogy to me). -Paul
[2022-09-09 19:16:52] - lol, yes. the graphics engine looks VERY similar, but (as someone who's never played goat simulator) they took it in a *bit* of a different direction. ~a
[2022-09-09 19:16:19] - a: Wait... Coffee Stain? The Goat Simulator people? -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 19:15:49] - a: Not one I knew of. But those are incredibly good reviews. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 19:14:02] - omg xpovos, i've been playing this video game morning noon and night (like it's seriously affecting my sleeping schedule). that game's name: satisfactory. ~a
[2022-09-09 19:12:57] - And, fwiw, I think the analogy image is fine. Flawed a little, as all analogies tend to be. But satisfactory overall in making a point, whether I agree or not. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 19:12:41] - i agree. ~a
[2022-09-09 19:12:00] - a: It's good to be concerned about election fraud. It can happen, so always good to be on the lookout. But in general U.S. elections are some of the best-run ever/in the world. When it does happen, we're also quite good at identifying it and prosecuting.
-- Xpovos[2022-09-09 19:06:18] - xpovos/paul: ok, honestly, you've both totally convinced me that this article is dumb. i withdraw my link. i'm still a bit worried that things could go badly, but i don't really care (anymore) about who this guy is (and the lady in the video) and what they are doing. ~a
[2022-09-09 19:04:34] - paul: "tons more car drivers than cyclists" not in every context. "Men and women are about 50/50 (give or take)." not in every context. man, i keep liking this analogy more and more the more we talk. the percentage in both is also totally irrelevant. ~a
[2022-09-09 19:03:48] - a: 1) Based on the authoritative response from the Michigan Attorney General, it's a safe assumption. 1a) and 2) Understandable concern. But our own precincts is all we can ever really take care of. If you have concerns, at all I recommend contacting your General Registrar and volunteering to become an election officer yourself. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 19:02:33] - paul: the image link is clearly focusing on how they're treated doing what they're doing. what's more, it's not the cars and the bikes, it's the people in the cars, and the people on bikes. those people are treated differently. this all seemed pretty obvious to me though. ~a
[2022-09-09 19:00:43] - xpovos: thank you for that context. you assume this training is for #4, and i assume that too. it's only an assumption, though, right? but also, "#2 is going to shut that shit down". although you're probably right in your precinct, i'm not as convinced that will happen in *every* precinct in the country. ~a
[2022-09-09 18:57:51] - a: Uh, alike in that they have two arms and two legs and hearts and eat food and all normal human stuff. About the only thing bikes and cars have in common are tires (different amounts), seats (different amounts), and... they are used for transport? -Paul
[2022-09-09 18:56:29] - a: Also, there are tons more car drivers than cyclists, so it might make sense to prioritize them in some sense? Men and women are about 50/50 (give or take). -Paul
[2022-09-09 18:56:02] - paul: "I think are far more alike than cars and bikes" alike how. in how they are treated by society? or how you wish they are treated by society? ~a
[2022-09-09 18:55:18] - a: I like to use analogies if I think the two things are close and comparable and an analogy will help clarify things. I don't see how cars and bikes (two very different modes of transportation with different needs regarding roads / trails) are that similar to men and women (who have their differences, but I think are far more alike than cars and bikes). -Paul
[2022-09-09 18:54:11] - a: Maybe I missed something in my initial read through (I can't re-read it now because it is paywall blocked). All I saw that was happening is that some people are being encouraged to use pen and paper and cell phones to record what they perceive as wrongdoing. If that's against the rules, then sure, that's bad and let's call it out, but it hardly seems like rejecting democracy. -Paul
[2022-09-09 18:49:33] - To clarify, they probably wouldn't be allowed to make a phone call. They certainly can't use the phone features of a smart phone. But they have tabulation software counting and identifying voters. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 18:48:01] - FWIW, a #4 poll worker in my precinct would be allowed to use a cell phone, pen and paper, and a wide range of other equipment. They can take all the notes they want. I've had poll workers identify issues, which they almost certainly ran back up their chain. Under normal circumstances, they're part of the legitimate process. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 18:46:01] - I had to call the cops once. They were there in two minutes. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 18:45:49] - If you come into my precinct and break the rules, here's what's going to happen. 1) I will speak to you and ask you to stop doing it. I will explain what the rule is. 2) If you continue to do it, I will warn you that failure to comply will result in expulsion. 3) I will ask you to leave the precinct, regardless of what other authority you claim you have. 4) I will call the police and they will arrest you. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 18:44:16] - Any training being given to #4 that's partisan? DGAF. 90% of them are outside the precinct. Even the 10% inside are known partisans. Of course they're trying to angle the rules to their favor. If the jurisdiction says they can't have a cell phone, no amount of training by the Rs saying "bring a cell phone," is going to help. #2 is going to shut that shit down. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 18:43:02] - Finally, there is a LOT of confusion between categories 2 and 4. People are assuming articles talking about #4, or training for #4 is somehow applicable to #2. They're not. I've not seen anything anywhere indicating anyone (R, D, Russians, God) is attempting to influence #2. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 18:41:42] - All of those roles have legally defined limits on what they can and cannot do. It is up to category 2, under most circumstances in most jurisdictions, to know and enforce those rules. The rules on category 4, the ones that it seems like the article is talking about, are potentially different in different jurisdictions. I can't comment except to speak about my jurisdiction's rules and policies. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 18:40:08] - 5) Journalists. There to report on the election, or a candidate. 6) Emergency responders. If something is (literally) on fire, and related. I thought of a 7th as well. 7) Employees of the precinct location. E.g. school employees, if the precinct is a school. Typically they are not in the voting room, but may be present in the voting area briefly or periodically, depending. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 18:37:37] - 3) Special Assistants. These are employees (volunteers) of the jurisdiction and visit periodically to verify things are running as expected, and may stay and help if things are going poorly or the precinct is overwhelmed. 4) Poll workers. These are employees (volunteers) of a party or candidate. The are present in the polling place witnessing the events on behalf of their employer to verify activities. (con't) -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 18:35:39] - 1) There are five categories of people in an election precinct, generally. Six if things have gone wrong. 1) Voters. Voters are present to vote and may come individually or in groups. They enter the precinct, maybe stand in line and wait, vote, wait (briefly) for friends/relatives to vote, and depart. 2) Election officers. These are employees (volunteers) of the jurisdiction. They have training and responsibilities to the election.
[2022-09-09 18:33:14] - a: I didn't read the article originally. I have now. I still haven't watched the video, which I feel like I'm going to have to do if I want to talk about this intelligently on the issue itself specifically. But the issue isn't one I really WANT to spend time thinking about or talking about because it's almost certainly a non-issue. To wit: -- Xpovos
[2022-09-09 17:21:50] - paul: "mashing two separate things together" is almost literally the definition of an analogy. ~a
[2022-09-09 17:20:54] - paul: what's wrong with the analogy exactly? you feel like it's trying to mash two separate things together but do you have an example of where specifically the analogy breaks down? is it something major or something minor? ~a
[2022-09-09 17:19:32] - paul: he's been getting (reasonable) cease and desist orders. he's working with steve bannon. he lies about almost literally everything. this isn't a guy i think we want instructing our election workers on how to behave rationally. on the heels of the false-trump-elector taking operatives into georgia county's elections office during the voting machine breach? i don't think any of this is a good idea. ~a
[2022-09-09 17:16:16] - paul: maybe xpovos can weigh in as our resident election expert. i feel like having a "big lie" 2020-election-denier getting paid fuck tons of money to lead partisans to act more partisan while working as election officials is just the beginning. when you also find out that they're being told to break election rules, i'm not sure i care which rules they are breaking because of who's making the calls on which rules to break. ~a
[2022-09-09 16:47:28] - a: Regarding second link.... I disagree? Both in terms of the analogy AND that it helps with understanding. I feel like it's oddly trying to mash two separate things together and just confusing each issue. -Paul
[2022-09-09 16:45:58] - a: Regarding your rolling stone link.... the facts of the article don't seem nearly as ominous as the... headline? description from you? The smoking gun is that they're encouraging people to use pen and paper to note any electoral shenanigans? -Paul
[2022-09-09 16:20:54] - any thoughts on this? i think this is one of the few times where i think an analogy helps in understanding in both directions. ~a
[2022-09-08 21:17:36] - If conservatives become convinced they cannot win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. They will reject democracy ~a
[2022-09-08 20:42:33] - paul: maybe 1% something fun to keep them interested and focused like reit or crypto or something. ~a
[2022-09-08 20:41:39] - paul: what daniel said. 100% VTTSX if they're planning on retiring between 2058 and 2062. 100% VLXVX if they're planning on retiring between 2063 and 2067. ~a
[2022-09-08 20:03:40] - Paul: Target Retirment 20XX fund where the XX fits their age? -Daniel
[2022-09-08 19:38:52] - Paul: Removing the doxxing and harrasment? -- Xpovos
[2022-09-08 19:17:25] - Xpovos: Sure, but what's the point of removing it from the wayback machine then? -Paul
[2022-09-08 19:16:55] - Record scratch topic change: Remember when I asked about an investment bucket for a younger person (assuming moderate risk tolerance)? Do you guys have any suggestions on what an ideal portfolio might look like? VTSAX I'm sure, but bonds? REITs? International? Crypto? -Paul
[2022-09-08 19:06:59] - Paul: Many records about the activities of KiwiFarm, less the doxxing and harrasment, are well-preserved. I don't think it's an issue. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-08 18:51:15] - a: "why are you mad that this was removed" Because I'm like the old school ACLU and am in favor of rights for people that I find repugnant (Nazis and Skokie) -Paul
[2022-09-08 18:50:07] - The fact that the wayback machine (I thought) was supposed to keep records of stuff people might find interesting and is now erasing that along with other actors banning things.... I dunno. Feels a little chilling to see stuff get completely wiped from the internet like that. -Paul
[2022-09-08 18:48:40] - a: It's not about the wayback machine being centralized, it's the same consensus thinking among all the major internet players that acts as de facto centralization. It's like how effectively the entire internet decided Trump should be kicked off at once (hyperbole, but not much). -Paul
[2022-09-08 18:45:42] - a: "if your argument is that the sheriffs signed up back when the oath keepers were moderate, then i agree with you" That's what I was thinkin COULD be the case. It's like if 10 years from now the LP becomes some terrorist organization and evidence is unearthed that I at one point I was a paying member.... I don't know how much that reflects on me. -Paul
[2022-09-08 18:44:13] - Xpovos: "Do they archive pornhub?" I saw somewhere that they do not, but can't confirm if that's true. -Paul
[2022-09-08 16:03:24] - I don't know the specifics of oathkeepers either but I think in general most organizations try to sell you on the easily approachable ideals then move onto the more specifics / hardcore of their ideals later on. I think that is shared across orgs from like Scientology to Al-Queda to Dems/Repubs. -Daniel
[2022-09-08 14:31:40] - paul: i just read the wikipedia article. why are you mad that this was removed? ~a
[2022-09-08 14:30:19] - paul: the wayback machine (the internet archive) being centralized isn't a recent change though. that website hasn't changed since the 90s. their being just one of them is a big deal, but at least there aren't zero of them, which i feel like could happen at any time. ~a
[2022-09-08 14:28:33] - paul: does it matter if they had noble beginnings? if your argument is that the sheriffs signed up back when the oath keepers were moderate, then i agree with you: it could be that what happened to these police chiefs and sheriffs is no big deal (nothingburger). but if your argument is something different: that the noble beginnings of the oath keepers . . . makes them laudable today, i'm not sure i follow that? ~a
[2022-09-08 11:25:15] - Paul: That’s an interesting decision. I get the why, and considering how much important information they never got to archive at all it’s not like it was ever going to be even close to 100% complete. Do they archive pornhub? Or illegal content? I think lots of people believe the content of Kiwifarms is on its way to becoming illegal. And while not porn, is just as exploitative. With a bonus side helping of non-consent. — Xpovos
[2022-09-08 01:56:34] - https://twitter.com/ZaidJilani/status/1567620886735249410 I'll admit I am not super familiar with the Wayback machine, but I am a little uncomfortable by how.... centralized the internet seems to be becoming. -Paul
[2022-09-08 01:55:43] - a: Yeah, definitely don't see much defensible now. I still could've sworn they had noble beginnings, though. Something about preventing police overstepping their bounds? Maybe not... -Paul
[2022-09-07 20:50:51] - you're right, they could have changed over time. i only know about their recent exploits (which are anything but admirable). ~a
[2022-09-07 20:11:13] - I'll admit, I am having trouble finding evidence to support my point, though. Most search results are about Jan 6th or the founder (who appears to be a bit of an extremist). I have a vague recollection of them encouraging police and the military to not obey unconstitutional orders, which sounds admirable on the surface. -Paul
[2022-09-07 19:52:00] - a: I am not 100% sure, but I do recall the oath keepers being very different (and even admirable... at least to me) years ago. In my mind they're like the tea party where it once stood for a specific thing that I mostly agreed with.... and then morphed into something more vague and different. -Paul
[2022-09-07 17:57:09] - i'm not at all surprised . . . but disappointed . . . that police chiefs and 11 sheriffs are members of the oath keepers. on the one hand, most of the published responses seem reasonable. but otoh, it could be lies. ~a
[2022-09-07 17:23:43] - a: And ranked choice makes independent candidates more viable too. -Paul
[2022-09-07 17:22:12] - even if we didn't have a third or fourth party, ranked choice voting would still take the two parties we have and make them more reasonable (imo). ~a
[2022-09-07 17:20:36] - paul: yeah, we all have. i talk to my dad who thinks two parties is the best number of parties. he thinks a third or four party would make things worse than they are, and i shake my head. ~a
[2022-09-07 17:19:41] - Daniel: Ranked choice voting or having a viable third (or fourth or more) party would greatly help, but I have been pounding that drum for a long time. -Paul
[2022-09-07 16:45:00] - mig: "I kind of expected better from them" why is this? i mean for one thing, they don't *deserve* your high expectations
but also . . . it seems like you aren't being evenhanded? ~a[2022-09-07 15:35:03] - Like I remember the "good" times when Sinema and Manchin WERE THE WORSTEST RACISTS EVER as if that was a great strategy for getting their support for things. - mig
[2022-09-07 15:33:44] - daniel: mostly yes. I'm harder on dems usually on this issue, because I dunno, I kind of expected better from them. - mig
[2022-09-07 15:31:10] - what happened with that compromise bill just baffled me that democrats sneered at it. It's what probably most of the public wants (codifying roe vs wade), but because it wasn't there bill (that went beyond codifying Roe v Wade) they just said no. There wasn't even full support for the dem version among democrats (Manchin was a no). - mig
[2022-09-07 15:30:28] - mig: Do you think the same of R's? Just checking if think that is unique to D's or just currently relevant given the composition. -Daniel
[2022-09-07 15:27:54] - daniel: https://www.collins.senate.gov/newsroom/senators-collins-and-murkowski-introduce-bill-to-codify-supreme-court-decisions-on-reproductive-rights_roe-v-wade-and-pl some R's are willing to cross, but there's too many democrats who want to act like they are a supermajority when they're not. - mig
[2022-09-07 14:37:27] - mig: I don't think there is a lot of choice in governing style if R's pretty much never cross the aisle on big things. (which again I think can be blamed in large part to the threat of being primaried) -Daniel
[2022-09-07 14:36:00] - paul: Polarization of primaries makes it hard to sell crossing the aisle as a good thing. Ranked choice voting might help with this (see recent Alaska election) but will have to get adopted more around the country. -Daniel
[2022-09-07 13:02:22] - As long as what is being done is acknowledged as a political action, rather than a policy one, I'm more or less fine. But I do think that its a poor choice to be using heat-raising rhetoric when it feels like 15% of the population is ready for blood in the streets. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-07 12:46:56] - I mean trying to govern as if you have a supermajority when you actually have a razor thin majority doesn’t seem like a good idea. Especially when there’s a good chance you’ll lose it. - mig
[2022-09-07 02:25:14] - a: Maybe recently, but isn't that one of the problems we have with polarization now? Neither side wants to work with the other and there are no more conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans? Sure would be nice if the parties at least pretended to care about people outside of the party. -Paul
[2022-09-04 17:39:12] - paul: oh ok. then . . . no? there wasn't such a memo. appealing to conservatives was never on the democrat agenda. like, ever. ~a
[2022-09-04 17:38:07] - a: *Shrug* You sometimes follow different news stories and different news sources than I do. -Paul
[2022-09-04 13:30:33] - I wouldn’t call Biden a moderate. Maybe on policy but he’s a demagogue. Aside from that he has been a boring president. - mig
[2022-09-04 13:28:47] - “Do you want to be ... on the side of Dr. King or George Wallace? Do you want to be on the side of John Lewis or Bull Connor?”
[2022-09-04 13:26:58] - “if you don’t vote for me you ain’t black”
[2022-09-04 13:26:31] - “there going to put y’all in chains”
[2022-09-03 05:45:27] - why are you asking me? ~a
[2022-09-03 03:16:54] - a: Was there some sort of memo recently among Democrats to basically just absolutely throw out any idea of appealing to conservatives? I think I've seen three Democratic politicians in the past week basically outright state they don't want any Republican support. -Paul
[2022-09-02 17:20:50] - a judge unsealed the list of things taken at the raid. link. it'll be interest to find out which documents are labeled "TOP SECRET". but it's also the little things, right? like what used to be in the 28 now empty folders labeled "Return to Staff Secretary/Military Aide"? i guess someone forgot to do something important . . . 28 times? ~a
[2022-09-02 16:45:02] - midterms, not primaries, oops. ~a
[2022-09-02 16:42:55] - he's the most boring president we've had in my lifetime and i was alive for bush senior. he might also be the most moderate president we've had in my lifetime. if he wants to increase the temperature into the primaries, with one damn speech? i don't fault him for that. ~a
[2022-09-02 16:36:36] - lowering the temperature wasn't his goal. ~a
[2022-09-02 16:36:22] - I'm sure this will help lower the temperature. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-02 15:42:09] - Haven't watched yet, but the choice of the blood red background contrasted with darkness and marines.... it was definitely a look. -Paul
[2022-09-02 13:55:59] - link ~a
[2022-09-02 13:49:58] - I didn't - saw a few headlines. -Daniel
[2022-09-02 13:48:57] - Anybody listen to Biden's speech last night? I honestly didn't know it was happening, but apparently it was quite a barn-burner. -Paul
[2022-09-01 18:40:27] - a: This isn't at all the first time Trump has advocated death for something he himself has done, right?
-Paul[2022-09-01 18:29:25] - a: i’ll mea culpa this that the trump raid looks way more legitimate (and serious) than when i first heard about it. - mig
[2022-09-01 16:41:51] - big oof. i mean, i get that it legally doesn't matter that he said this, but it kinda matters ethically and politically. ~a
[2022-09-01 15:13:13] - paul: Yeah depends on who they are but I would press for the answers to "Is it for retirement? yes/no Do you know approximately when you want to spend it? Answer in years is fine. I think without those its hard to give an appropriate answer
Which doesn't always make people happy but there it is. -Daniel[2022-09-01 14:27:14] - maybe instead propose a few financial planners? ~a
[2022-09-01 14:26:57] - paul: racism - its ok when they do it. - mig
[2022-09-01 14:26:42] - paul: a bit of meta: i probably would refuse to get involved. giving someone advice like this will almost always turn out bad for you. ~a
[2022-09-01 03:18:08] - paul: target-date funds are what i would suggest to anyone who doesn't want to think about investing. if they won't answer any questions, even "when will you retire?" then target-date funds are perfect, and i'd probably heavily question anything other than target-date funds. (i.e. anything that is better than target-date funds without hindsight, are going to be effectively the same?) ~a
[2022-09-01 01:29:16] - https://twitter.com/wrong_speak/status/1564968768820121600 Even I was surprised by how long that video went on, and I probably am more exposed to these kind of headlines than most. -Paul
[2022-09-01 01:28:41] - Daniel: They want to be told what to invest in and be done with it, not have to answer a bunch of questions. Problem is, I feel like knowing how close they are to retirement is too important. -Paul
[2022-09-01 01:27:39] - Daniel: Yeah, that's the dilemma I am facing now. the TLDR is I am pondering what kind of well-diversified basket would be reasonable to present to somebody who is likely to be the type of person who doesn't want to think about investing. -Paul
[2022-08-31 20:44:05] - I mean if you ask me with zero context what to invest in..... But sure total market index is perfectly viable choice. -Daniel
[2022-08-31 20:32:04] - daniel is always pushing the large-cap. ~a
[2022-08-31 20:05:17] - My family asks me a lot what they should do with their money and then I ask what the money is for and they get annoyed that I'm asking them questions cause then they have to think and figure stuff out but yeah pretty much there are some basics you need to know. -Daniel
[2022-08-31 20:04:22] - I mean.... You could just do a fifty fifty split between 500 index fund and total bond market? But obviously knowing things like "its for retirement" or "its to buy a boat next year" would make a big difference. -Daniel
[2022-08-31 18:39:25] - paul: the latter definitely. most companies like vanguard or a retirement planner ask the "risk tolerance" very differently and specifically. they ask scenarios, like: if the X part of portfolio went down Y%, what would you do: transfer money into X, transfer money out of X, do nothing, etc. ~a
[2022-08-31 18:37:07] - aDaniel: Random question: Let's say you were asked to come up with a basket of investments that represented a reasonably diversified portfolio for somebody who doesn't know much about investing and just wants to be told what to do. Do you think that could be done just with that information, or do you think it really need to take into account things like how close to retirement they are and risk tolerance? -Paul
[2022-08-31 18:05:42] - a: Hehe, I did chuckle. I appreciate the absurdity of it (including visualizing a wind turbine blade covered in feathers and blood). -Paul
[2022-08-31 17:46:54] - paul: i made a joke on reddit that i thought you might like. apparently it's too deep in the comments to net me many internet points, but i thought you might get a chuckle. ~a
[2022-08-31 16:33:34] - Unclear if he meant that was a bad thing to be fixed.... or a reason to give them lots of money. -Paul
[2022-08-31 16:21:11] - Daniel: I agree (heck, Kamala was a prosecutor, so even if she said things to the contrary, I was always suspicious). To your second point, though, it's a little weird because he addressed that in some comments too: https://www.axios.com/2022/08/30/biden-speech-wilkes-barre-pennsylvania-midterms "We expect [police] to do everything. We expect them to protect us, to be psychologist to be sociologists," -Paul
[2022-08-31 16:08:02] - -Daniel
[2022-08-31 16:07:58] - paul: I think Biden / Harris weren't ever in lockstep with the activists on the 'defund the police' movement so it doesn't surprise me to see him calling for more funding. I also think "defund the police" is pretty bad in terms of marketing when it really should be something like "police shouldn't be responsible for so many things because when you are a hammer everything starts to look like a nail" but that isn't very concise either. -Danie
[2022-08-31 15:49:27] - To be clear, no thesis I am trying to push. I imagine I am somewhere in between the poles of "defund the police" and "fund the police". -Paul
[2022-08-31 15:48:54] - https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/aug/30/biden-rips-gop-support-police-calls-increased-fund/ Similar to my previous article about Leana Wen, I find it interesting how quickly Democrats went from "defund the police" to "fund the police". Also, a little whiplash between the back and forth regarding bodily autonomy re vaccines and abortion. -Paul
[2022-08-31 15:33:02] - a: *Shrug* I assume some of those companies are paying Starlink. -Paul
[2022-08-31 14:55:09] - paul: will this change their profitability? ~a
[2022-08-31 14:38:13] - a: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/30/royal-caribbean-partners-with-spacexs-starlink-for-onboard-internet.html Royal Caribbean and T-Mobile? Might be something to this Starlink after all... -Paul
[2022-08-31 03:11:31] - what details? ~a
[2022-08-31 00:19:25] - a: I'm all for loosening building restrictions to meet housing demand but looking at some of the details the sausage making part of how this hammered out leaves a bit to be desired. - mig
[2022-08-30 19:36:18] - progress in california (ADU stands for accessory dwelling unit which is like a mother-in-law suite or whatever) ~a
[2022-08-30 19:33:33] - agreed. ~a
[2022-08-30 18:44:10] - But I also have been SUPER frustrated by some of the rigid COVID measures that seem a little unnecessary and have had clear downsides that everybody seems to want to downplay because on the other side is death! -Paul
[2022-08-30 18:43:30] - a: "please recognize that the flip side was also uncompelling" Oh, sure. I think I've consistently leaned more towards the cautious side than the non-cautious side for that very reason. I got my two jabs and a booster (despite having some tough reactions to 2 out of 3). I locked down pretty hardcore and masked up as much as most people I know. -Paul
[2022-08-30 18:40:30] - a: https://www.mackinac.org/for-most-people-coronavirus-presents-similar-risks-as-car-accidents To your point comparing COVID to riding a bike (and car deaths). -Paul
[2022-08-30 18:40:13] - a: "mmmm, i'm not sure i agree on this one. maybe safer? or safe enough?" It's all relative, sure. Tons of people have died. But we knew pretty early on who the most at risk were (and they were MUCH more at risk than others) and yet we seemed to treat COVID as something we needed EVERYBODY to take extreme measures to avoid. -Paul
[2022-08-30 18:38:01] - paul: people wearing masks could infect themselves with their own breath. (this one was literally in plandemic). if i made some up, you'd definitely have trouble figuring out which ones i made up. ~a
[2022-08-30 18:37:11] - paul: ok. i agree with your assessment. but, please recognize that the flip side was also uncompelling: vaccines cause autism. oxygen levels in your blood decrease when you wear a mask (hypoxemia, the term for insufficient oxygen in the blood). improper use of a face mask actually puts you at greater risk of contamination. vaccine shedding where you can "catch" the downsides of a vaccine from someone. ~a
[2022-08-30 18:31:58] - a: I agree nobody was saying that out loud, but the implication was always: "Just wear a mask! How hard can it be? Just get the jab! It's safe and effective. Just stay inside and watch Netflix all day!" I want to reiterate what I said before: "I don't think anybody here said this". It was just observing the discourse on twitter and Facebook an among coworkers and friends and family and in the media. -Paul
[2022-08-30 14:46:50] - paul: for instance, biking in the middle of the road isn't safe. but i do it anyways because i consider it safe enough. one of those weighing the risks type of deals. ~a
[2022-08-30 14:46:03] - paul: "quickly we realized things like how non-elderly / non-comorbidity people were largely pretty safe" mmmm, i'm not sure i agree on this one. maybe safer? or safe enough? ~a
[2022-08-30 14:44:51] - paul: i feel like there was debate. maybe too much debate. i agree on the compassion point though. there was little to no compassion on either side. i understand your point now, though, that it was just an interesting case study of someone changing sides, but you also said "benefit with no downsides" like that was really something anyone was arguing. ~a
[2022-08-30 14:44:42] - a: Take this Leana Wen of today and transplant her a year or two ago and that Leana Wen would probably be calling for her to be locked in her home and banned from social media. -Paul
[2022-08-30 14:43:47] - a: Like, I get the early days when we had no idea what was going on and it made sense to play it safe. But pretty quickly we realized things like how non-elderly / non-comorbidity people were largely pretty safe and we learned about spread indoors vs outdoors and limitations of masking and other things but the policy was so slow to follow while people who held heterodox ideas was banned from social media and mocked. -Paul
[2022-08-30 14:41:58] - a: Not sure I have a "thesis" here. Just that I find it interesting that somebody went so far from one "side" to the other here. I suppose if I had any thesis, it would be that I hope next time this happens, there is a little more compassion and honest debate (on all sides) of trade-offs of different mitigation policies. -Paul
[2022-08-30 14:40:43] - yeah what are the odds, that's kinda crazy. ~a
[2022-08-30 14:31:39] - A: I did but it's still amusing! ~g
[2022-08-30 14:25:41] - g: lol. he doesn't post here anymore. you should text it to him if you haven't already. ~a
[2022-08-30 14:06:57] - Everyone should solve 6&7 at https://www.nytimes.com/crosswords/game/mini ~g
[2022-08-29 21:16:05] - paul: is your point that we should have never had mask mandates? or that mask mandates had no upside? can you clearly state your thesis? saying that tradeoffs exist, and that there are downsides somewhere, or whatever, is pretty vacuous. i mean, like, of course. ~a
[2022-08-29 21:11:10] - paul: But only because you told me I wouldn't guess him and normally I wouldn't guess him because I don't actually think he wouldn't get them in. -Daniel
[2022-08-29 21:10:46] - paul: Dave. -Daniel
[2022-08-29 20:46:29] - I don't think anybody here said this, but I remember commenting on Facebook at least about how masking in schools isn't a clear and obvious benefit with no downsides because masking could be harming learning and the health of students in a number of ways. Sounds like we're starting to see the data behind that. -Paul
[2022-08-29 20:45:04] - a: Wrong. -Paul
[2022-08-29 20:45:00] - But now, she consistently sounds a lot more like how I have felt for months / years. Change in the deadliness of COVID? Changes in how effective we know mitigation strategies are? Changes in understanding of trade-offs? All of the above? -Paul
[2022-08-29 20:44:00] - https://fee.org/articles/cnn-medical-analyst-says-masking-stunted-her-toddler-s-language-development-and-taught-her-an-important-lesson-about-tradeoffs/ It's been fascinating to see the evolution of Leana Wen's views on COVID. I clearly remember her being a "villain" on twitter for people who were resistant to longer lockdowns and stricter vaccine/masking mandates. -Paul
[2022-08-29 20:42:59] - my guess is tim. ~a
[2022-08-29 20:42:35] - Daniel: Waiting on one person.... can you guess who? I'll bet you won't get it right with your first guess (hint?) -Paul
[2022-08-29 20:14:19] - paul: did you get all the keepers yet? I'm being impatient to see who actually kept who! -Daniel
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