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[2022-10-06 19:54:39] - a: child-UBI is what I'm calling the expanded and IRS pre-refunded tax credit program. It was a fairly significant reason for lowering child poverty levels, so a win there. But it was also stupidly expensive. I think it's overall good, probably pays for itself in terms of outcomes long term, and could reasonably be paid for with some clever revenue schemes, particularly if paired with spending reductions on some other [...]
[2022-10-06 19:53:03] - But on a scale of international death, that messy situation is still far better than involvement in new wars, which I legitimately feared and expected. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-06 19:52:33] - Paul: It was already set to be done. He didn't cancel it (Afghan withdrawal) and arguably given the results, maybe he should have? He gets a lot of blame for it, and I think that's fair. It was a collossol mess. I'm sure it's completely reasonable to blame a lot of that on Trump and his people, because they probably left it in shambles for Biden, but there was no excuse for what happened. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-06 19:50:26] - i didn't know about child-ubi, that's pretty cool. ~a
[2022-10-06 19:50:24] - a/Paul: Ooh, yeah, Justice Jackson was a good pick, probably the best on his self-inflicted short list. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-06 19:49:42] - a: Infrastructure, child-UBI-even if only for a year because Manchin shut it down, not starting a new war, managing Ukraine/Russia with an acceptable level of deftness (it would have been very easy for that to have been a fuck-up), survived COVID which kills a lot of old people, and the gun law he was involved with wasn't harmful. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-06 19:49:16] - a: Legitimately! I give him tons of credit for doing it, but tons of blame because it seemed to be handled so ineptly. -Paul
[2022-10-06 19:48:49] - a: I wasn't thinking of a specific admin that was good. More like Trump/Obama/Bush all did a lot of bad with not so much good (Obama really should've gotten the Afghan withdrawal and marijuana pardons done). I mean, an argument could be made the Clinton years might be the best of my lifetime from a libertarian perspective (although I think much of the credit goes to Congress for forcing his hand). -Paul
[2022-10-06 19:47:23] - paul: "Afghanistan withdrawal" it amazing you mention this, because i think he gets tons of shit for the afghanistan withdrawal. ~a
[2022-10-06 19:47:12] - a: Oh, and I think Ketanji Brown Jackson was a pretty good SCOTUS pick, even if I likely disagree with a lot of her legal thinking. -Paul
[2022-10-06 19:46:25] - paul: 20 years ago . . . you're referring to raegan, bush 41, or clinton?
~a[2022-10-06 19:46:03] - a: Afghanistan withdrawal was huge. This is also big. I also think he's kind of handling Ukraine okay in that he seems to be avoiding getting the US directly involved. -Paul
[2022-10-06 19:45:18] - Point is that even when he's wrong, his error bars are all far to the good of where I expect. His bad is way less bad than expected. His good is way more good than expected. If he could stop gaffing and doing silly media stunts, it'd be even better. But that's probably beyond his capacity. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-06 19:44:56] - Xpovos: "Am I going to have to eat crow on the whole concept of a Biden presidency?" Heh, that's pretty much my thinking too. In some very narrow ways.... this might be the best administration over the past.... 20 years? -Paul
[2022-10-06 19:44:01] - xpovos/paul: except the current thing, what are you guys in favor of? ~a
[2022-10-06 19:44:00] - a: Yes, that's the icing on this cake. But as much as the infrastructure bill was a pork pie, it does some desperately needed things and pork is how Washington works. He got it passed, or at least it passed under his admin, so he gets credit. The student loan thing is tricky and I'm not strictly in favor of, but I don't see it as some awful thing (like starting a war in Venuzeula), and it helps a lot of people. [...] -- Xpovos
[2022-10-06 19:43:42] - but he's also done a lot of things I am really in favor of and which should've honestly been done a few administrations ago. -Paul
[2022-10-06 19:43:21] - https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/06/politics/marijuana-decriminalization-white-house-joe-biden/index.html I criticize Biden for a lot, but this is very welcome and LONG overdue. So hard to judge this presidency. Some days it seems like such a disaster between the gaffes and botched Afghanistan withdrawal and stuff like student loan forgiveness and whatnot.... -Paul
[2022-10-06 19:41:18] - xpovos: nah, we all said he'd be terrible. everyone except daniel maybe. i assume you're referring to the pardons (which is surprising and amazing, i agree). ~a
[2022-10-06 19:39:31] - Am I going to have to eat crow on the whole concept of a Biden presidency? I'm still not happy about it, and I'm still worried about longer term issues. But he has done more (good) [and less explicity bad at the same time] than I expected, for sure. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-06 18:09:00] - a: Anyway, he clearly has a burning desire to jump in to every news story and try to fix things. Not necessarily something I am in favor of, but I accept it as part of who he is. -Paul
[2022-10-06 18:08:23] - a: It was not his best moment. I still have no idea why he called him a pedophile. Got sued for it. Probably the lowest my opinion was of Musk was around then. -Paul
[2022-10-06 18:03:18] - he called one of the divers a pedophile. one of the divers was like fuck off or whatever. i totally forget why he thought to call him a pedophile though. ~a
[2022-10-06 18:02:19] - ugh, yes i do remember. i think that was the first time i was like "oh wow, elon musk might be an idiot." ~a
[2022-10-06 18:02:18] - a: Haha! Sorry. I read a comment and then go to respond before reading the rest. Now I see what you posted. -Paul
[2022-10-06 18:01:40] - a: "i don't agree that musk should be involved" Oh, I think we agree on that. There's not much reason Musk has to be involved. He typically tends to do this with stories in the news, though. Remember the offer for a submarine for the kids stuck in the cave? -Paul
[2022-10-06 18:00:54] - paul: i linked that link.
~a[2022-10-06 18:00:36] - a: No, not sure, but it sounds like it was a combination of donation and paid for: https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-was-elon-musks-ukraine-starlink-funded-biden-white-house-1749103 -Paul
[2022-10-06 17:56:57] - xpovos: good question. i don't live in ukraine or russia, so i can't answer that for them. any scenario or concession i can imagine might be insulting, or just ignorant to someone who actually lives in ukraine or russia. ~a
[2022-10-06 17:40:16] - a: What should we concede to the aggressor in a war? -- Xpovos
[2022-10-06 17:24:24] - paul: "in the months after musk announced that his company was to send starlink terminals to ukraine, the washington post ran a report claiming it had seen documents showing the u.s. had made significant contributions towards this effort." link ~a
[2022-10-06 17:22:14] - paul: i agree that concessions are necessary. but i don't agree that musk should be involved: he seems insanely shitty at it. ~a
[2022-10-06 17:21:42] - paul: are you sure he donated stations to ukraine? i believe he was paid for that access, is that right? ~a
[2022-10-06 17:17:47] - a: And so I think Musk wants to avoid that, and one key to that is ending the Ukraine war, and I think he's prioritizing that (which would necessarily involve some concessions to Putin) over a sense of fairness in resolving the war. -Paul
[2022-10-06 17:17:06] - a: Musk also donated Starlink stations to Ukraine to help fight off Russia, so I don't think it's accurate to call him pro-Putin. I think the position he is coming from is he is anti-human extinction and nuclear war would be a bit threat there and Putin's rhetoric makes me think we're probably closer to a nuclear war than we have been in decades. -Paul
[2022-10-06 16:46:40] - i know it's probably not on purpose, but does musk seem borderline pro-putin in his ramblings? (i'm also referring to this one that we somehow haven't discussed here. seriously, "russia leaves if that is will of the people". this feels like gas-lighting!) ~a
[2022-10-06 15:51:09] - a: I know you acknowledged the oversimplification, but even an 8% seemingly on the downswing AND with a 3 month interest penalty? I get that it's still a big spread, but iBonds are looking a lot less attractive to me right now. -Paul
[2022-10-06 15:46:04] - paul: let's see. ~3% or ~8%? i understand this is a giant huge oversimplification, but i'm happy with that oversimplification when it's 3.5%. 3.5% is lower than historic inflation, and you're locked in for 15 months. wake me up when it gets over 4%? ~a
[2022-10-06 15:05:21] - Synchrony has a 15 month CD with a 3.5% APY. Would you rather put $5k into that or an iBond right now? -Paul
[2022-10-06 02:51:40] - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLTBkqjinaR1RMiAaexX6MVf3rSeO4o7jS I found these videos helpful for learning some micro tips. There's also a custom arcade game for it in SC2. -Paul
[2022-10-05 21:53:30] - i don't know how far they go, but it probably varies from tournament to tournament. does anybody know? do they pat you down? do they have a magnetometer? do they have people in the restrooms? is it hard to fake-out a magnetometer for the purpose of getting morse code data remotely? ~a
[2022-10-05 21:19:07] - They do screen players for electronic devices don't they? - mig
[2022-10-05 21:18:45] - a: ez to cheat maybe? but cheat and not get caught I think is probably not so trivial. - mig
[2022-10-05 18:40:17] - beads, right. for some reason typing "butt plug" felt wrong. i can't believe i made such a serious mistake. ~a
[2022-10-05 18:39:19] - mig: I disagree a bit. I feel like knowing Niemann cheated (a fair amount) before AND that he lied about it, it makes it a lot more likely he did cheat OTB. How? I don't know. Apparently there are ways (that don't involve anal beads). Magnus apparently saw something (maybe something similar to what chess.com noted in their analysis) and other grandmasters seemed to agree. -Paul
[2022-10-05 18:36:00] - mig: the only thing i can't get super behind is that you suggest niemann probably didn't cheat in otb, and i deeply feel that if he wanted to cheat in otb, it's not as hard as you suggest. 19 years old is plenty old enough. ~a
[2022-10-05 18:34:26] - mig: i agree. i guess i just agree with all of it. everything you said. magnus shouldn't have done what he did. he shouldn't have entered the tournament where he knew he'd be playing against niemann especially if not entering in the tournament meant his rating wouldn't be affected. it looks bad that the tournament let niemann in at all? ~a
[2022-10-05 18:27:39] - and magnus seems to just be sour he lost to someone he considers a pleb. - mig
[2022-10-05 18:27:07] - As far as he might be a serial cheater and maybe shouldn’t be playing competitive chess there’s nothing to suggest currently that his win over magnus isn’t legitamate. - mig
[2022-10-05 18:25:28] - it doesn’t move the needle about the magnus game because cheating in online chess is WAY different than cheating OTB. Even if he *wanted* to cheat otb i think it requires more sophistication than this 19 year old is capable of. - mig
[2022-10-05 17:50:42] - a: I feel like DeSantis and Biden got a little left out. Maybe abortion? -Paul
[2022-10-05 17:45:43] - this tweet has it all: 1. chess-master in the news 2. elon man bad 3. starlink 4. ukraine. 5. tweeting being discussed IN a twitter feed. is there any october-news that this tweet doesn't cover? i guess hurricanes? ~a
[2022-10-05 15:34:10] - a: "poor kid" Torn. He brought all of this on himself and screw cheaters.... but there is a reasonable amount of punishment and I hope it doesn't go beyond that. Feels like we often as a society go way overboard punishing people who get in the news. -Paul
[2022-10-05 14:30:23] - in the end, he may actually bring people to chess. we wouldn't be talking about chess right now if it weren't for him and his butt plug. the queens gambit definitely brought a bunch of people to chess imo. ~a
[2022-10-05 14:27:58] - ah yeah, that's pretty damning. this moves all of the needles. poor kid, hopefully he keeps his day job. even if he is (or becomes) amazing at chess, he likely won't be able to pay the bills. ~a
[2022-10-05 14:26:42] - a: From the chess.com report: "We present evidence in this report that Hans likely cheated online much more than his public statements suggest." A little wishy washy. -Paul
[2022-10-05 14:14:36] - i was going to say the same thing. he admitted to cheating, but he was specific about when he cheated. paul says "if", does anyone know if this pokes holes in his statements about when he cheated? ~a
[2022-10-05 14:04:18] - mig: Agreed, but if he has been cheating more recently and more regularly AND has been lying about it.... it makes me FAR more likely to believe Magnus. -Paul
[2022-10-05 03:40:22] - paul: yeah that doesn’t move the needle about the game w/ magnus. - mig
[2022-10-05 02:22:53] - https://www.chess.com/blog/CHESScom/hans-niemann-report Chess.com comes out in support of the idea that Hans cheated in online games (although not necessarily his OTB game against Magnus). -Paul
[2022-10-04 21:20:11] - a: By not getting obsessed, I don't mean let it be. I just mean it's no more important than residential/industrial/commercials zoning rules or regulations against building heights or what homeowners can do with their lawns or whatever. I have finite attention, I can't spend all day on the message board railing against all the regulations I am against.
-Paul[2022-10-04 21:11:22] - paul: it's like saying, onerous regulation is terrible, except any *one* piece of onerous regulation, no need to change that one? why not that one? ~a
[2022-10-04 21:02:42] - paul: hmmm, i mostly agree with what you say, except this part: "no real reason to get obsessed over any one of them" this is a hard-vote for the status quo if i've ever heard one
i think what i'd say is there is no real reason to *not* get obsessed over any one of them. ~a[2022-10-04 20:59:51] - Looks like the twitter deal is back on? Twitter might be getting a lot more exciting soon. -Paul
[2022-10-04 20:05:51] - a: More seriously, do I want a 10 story apartment building in my neighborhood? Not really. There's a reason I live in the suburbs and not the city. But I wouldn't advocate for laws against it. -Paul
[2022-10-04 20:04:07] - a: Sure, I admit I have hardly ever given parking minimums a ton of thought. It frankly seems like one of hundreds of random regulations developers have to deal with so no real reason to get obsessed over any one of them. If somebody is building high density in my back yard I hope they at last buy the land off me first.
-Paul[2022-10-04 19:29:25] - paul: "You sound like you maybe doubt that" yes, i kinda do. you have specifically said that you are against zoning laws. more than once. but i've never heard you specifically say that you want parking minimums removed. or that you specifically want higher density to be allowed in your back yard. ~a
[2022-10-04 19:22:13] - a: And yes, I see no problem getting rid of a lot of those handcuffs on developers. You sound like you maybe doubt that? -Paul
[2022-10-04 19:21:40] - a: "i read this as: we're trying to find more rubes. and: all of our previous rubes don't want to give us money anymore" I don't know how that's different from any other early stage company still in growth mode where they're burning money to grow. What makes these people rubes instead of customers? -Paul
[2022-10-04 18:00:14] - a: Unfortunately, I doubt even high-density housing is going to be nearly as profitable to develop in public transit-dense zones as yet more retail. So that's what I expect removing zoning restrictions would get. FWIW I think zoning restrictions are 95% harmful and would in general oppose them. I just don't see removing them as fixing the problem either. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-04 17:43:32] - paul: another #3 (ok, i guess we should call it #4 to avoid confusion) are the government officials responsible for things other than roads. the biggest changes i would make would be legislative and would be about things you USUALLY love: removing the handcuffs on private developers: onerous zoning especially near public transportation, onerous parking minimums, let's fucking get rid of that shit, right libertarian-paul? ~a
[2022-10-04 17:29:52] - paul: "any support is super helpful". i read this as: we're trying to find more rubes. and: all of our previous rubes don't want to give us money anymore. ~a
[2022-10-04 17:26:05] - paul: "officials responsible for public roads? Or private developers? Or somebody else?" yes. all three. the biggest #3 is the literal "planners" (engineers with planning degrees) hired by the officials responsible for public roads and private developers (#1 and #2). ~a
[2022-10-04 17:24:24] - paul: yeah that's what i meant by "that was an oversight". if anything meaningful change to education does have to happen at the state level. like how would you go to get increases to teacher-pay when your budget is defined by the state? ~a
[2022-10-04 17:24:21] - a: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1577339522383241216 Musk addresses your concern about profitability of Starlink. "still far from cash flow positive" -Paul
[2022-10-04 17:23:51] - a: Who are the suburban planners? Are we talking government officials responsible for public roads? Or private developers? Or somebody else? -Paul
[2022-10-04 17:22:57] - a: My first thought was local school board, because that seems to be the obvious target, but it seems like this is above their pay grade? I'm not sure, but I think in order to enact the change I would like it has to be state level. -Paul
[2022-10-04 15:57:57] - paul: "It kind of depends on what you're focused on" i do like to focus on the whole picture. i also live in the suburbs, and i think we can make transportation beautiful too. but, to do that i think we need to make some different decisions (ex. more density near more public transportation). many suburban planners imo are corrupted by deep pockets. ~a
[2022-10-04 13:50:53] - i specifically eliminated education from my thinking because it seemed like you weren't running for local office. but honestly, that was an oversight. ~a
[2022-10-04 04:52:48] - a: I realize I never answered what my issue would be. In general? Education. Specifically? Either making changes to FCPS and/or supporting ESAs (https://www.edchoice.org/school-choice/types-of-school-choice/education-savings-account/) -Paul
[2022-10-04 04:34:47] - paul: that does look nice. ~a
[2022-10-04 00:45:54] - title: It kind of depends on what you're focused on, no? I consider myself to live in the suburbs, and sitting in my house, this is the view: https://photos.app.goo.gl/cZJAvN2dFEAxbb9f7 -Paul
[2022-10-03 18:51:44] - btw, model in this case refers to "modelling". not a model in the sense of a model of car. (see xpovos's first post about modelling/modeling) ~a
[2022-10-03 18:45:03] - a: "they have models that might be untested in the real world" I thought that was a major criticism of Waymo: That it only works in areas that Google has carefully pre-mapped out or something. Having said that, I also don't know a ton about Waymo. -Paul
[2022-10-03 16:55:14] - a: Given Waymo's history of abusing press for biased efforts propping them up, I'm not surprised that this happened. Here's a way-too-long video about it (he mostly takes down a different YouTuber, but I blame Waymo, personally): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CM0aohBfUTc -- Xpovos
[2022-10-03 16:15:34] - paul: i don't know anything about waymo, sorry. i wouldn't say i'm skeptical of waymo in particular, but my issue was the article read like a press release. they have models that might be untested in the real world. i don't think i have anything against waymo in specific, but that i don't think fsd doesn't solve the bigger problems with vehicles. ~a
[2022-10-03 16:13:12] - a: I asked because the article was about Waymo and you seemed skeptical, so I was wondering what your thoughts on Waymo was in terms of if it was safer or better than human driving. -Paul
[2022-10-03 15:46:01] - paul: 4. i'd like a big change to how jurisdictions (especially fairfax county in our area) handle signaled-crosswalks. they're terrible. ~a
[2022-10-03 15:39:29] - paul: "I saw a cyclist blow through a pedestrian signal and I had to slow down even though there is what I am pretty sure a super responsive beg button" i'm sorry they did that, that sucks. i hate the beg-button, but i do 1. mostly follow the law, 2. if there's a beg button, *in fairfax county* i'll assume it won't give me a signal with traffic, so i will usually break the law. 3. i won't cross in front of a car, though. ~a
[2022-10-03 15:26:43] - paul: i'd also argue that fsd doesn't solve any of the bigger problems, but i get that my solutions to the bigger problems will be distasteful. ~a
[2022-10-03 15:23:41] - paul: i only have experience with tesla fsd. ~a
[2022-10-03 15:23:09] - paul: no, i wouldn't argue that autonomous cars in general are worse or less-safe than humans. or that they can't be either. ~a
[2022-10-03 15:20:48] - a: "are you ok? it's not like you to put words in my mouth" I... didn't think I was? I asked a question about your views so I understood exactly what you were saying? "i don't think i said any of those things" But you immediately follow that up by saying those exact things about a form of autonomous driving from last year? I'm confused. -Paul
[2022-10-03 15:14:49] - paul: are you ok? it's not like you to put words in my mouth
no. i don't think i said any of those things. i have said that tesla fsd of 2021 is terrible. less-safe *and* worse than humans . . . with or without alcohol and texting. waymo (and uber fsd) might be amazing. i've also said that fsd doesn't solve any of the many problems of vehicular travel. ~a[2022-10-03 14:53:32] - a: Are you arguing that autonomous cars are not safer than human drivers? Or that they aren't as good? Or both? Because I think there could very easily be a situation where autonomous cars are safer, but still not nearly as good because they can't handle a ton of situations like bad weather or badly labeled roads or whatnot. -Paul
[2022-10-03 14:42:33] - a: Agreed, the journalism is lacking. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-03 14:30:52] - you have to test your models against real world data (in both climate science and with self driving). my issue is that this article reads like a press release. did anyone think to ask if their models have been tested in the real world? ~a
[2022-10-03 14:23:19] - It's all modelling, and so it's easy to call BS, but I'll remind everyone that modelling is what we're basing all of our future climate change assumptions on. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-03 14:19:06] - It's the Sun, so not a great source of journalism, but the trials itself weren't journalism, so deserve a closer look. Related to Sun problems, I had to work hard to get to this article, so this link might not work. Apologies if that is the case. https://www.the-sun.com/motors/6341090/autonomous-cars-pitted-superhuman-drivers/ -- Xpovos
[2022-10-03 14:03:49] - sorry, you were arguing against the enforcement of jaywalking. ~a
[2022-10-03 13:31:02] - a: Just a few days ago I saw a cyclist blow through a pedestrian signal and I had to slow down even though there is what I am pretty sure a super responsive beg button (or whatever it's called) there. -Paul
[2022-10-03 13:29:12] - a: And yes, I will argue against jaywalking because I feel like people are way too accepting of it. If I just randomly decided to ignore stop signs and red lights I doubt people would be like, "Yeah, traffic signals are bullshit". -Paul
[2022-10-03 13:28:07] - a: "illegally" Is an important word there, though, no? I mean, I could say running a red light and a car driving on the street is effectively the same thing because one is just "illegally" driving on the street. -Paul
[2022-10-03 02:13:41] - i know you hate it when i bring this up but . . . i feel like you have argued against jaywalking before. ~a
[2022-10-03 02:12:02] - paul: jaywalking is illegally crossing the road on foot. so less "notably different things", and more "effectively the same thing". jaywalking is fucking bullshit. if you haven't seen any of adam conover's stuff you might not know that "jay" was a slur of the period to mean "moron". ~a
[2022-10-03 00:12:26] - a: Is it about "crossing the road using something other than a car"? Or jaywalking? Because those seem to be notably different things. -Paul
[2022-10-02 23:59:36] - virginia is similar, it is no longer a primary offense. ~a
[2022-10-02 23:55:37] - no more penalties for crossing the road using something other than a car in california. ~a
[2022-10-02 15:19:44] - a: Seems way too early. This is like judging Tesla pre-Roadster or Space-X before they even had launched anything. At least Starlink has stuff in production which is working. Actually, this seems on the level of the Hyperloop, which I was also withholding judgement on. -Paul
[2022-10-02 15:18:44] - a: Uh... so obviously I think I don't mindlessly follow Musk and only judge his ventures on their apparent merits. But at the same time I know I DO have a bias. This seems like a clear cut: "Okay, what you are currently showing is not overly impressive, but you have an impressive track record of success so I will wait and see" -Paul
[2022-10-02 07:48:38] - i'm surprised to see that you are not drinking the tesla kool-aid? you seem to have a positive view of all of the elon musk companies. ~a
[2022-10-02 01:55:26] - Also, TIL there are apparently conspiracy theories about the Las Vegas shooting? -Paul
[2022-10-02 01:51:02] - Oh, and another excuse is that Boston Dynamics has been working on theirs for years and Tesla just started like 6 months ago? The comparison I saw which sounds right is that Boston Dynamics is Waymo. -Paul
[2022-10-02 01:50:10] - a: So if you're drinking the Tesla Kool-Aid (which I am not quite yet), their bot might not move as sexily, but will be cheaper ($20k is the claim) and be able to do stuff instead of just random dances for 15 minutes. -Paul
[2022-10-02 01:49:18] - a: The responses I've seen are that those bots are (a) a lot more expensive to produce (b) don't run for as long and (c) are doing carefully choreographed things and don't really contain much in the way of AI. -Paul
[2022-10-02 01:48:17] - a: Eh, I was unimpressed by the presentation, but obviously even a half-functional robot would be pretty impressive and Tesla has a track record of success so I am not writing it off yet. I think the end-goal is to help humans with repetitive, boring tasks. I've seen the Boston Dynamics stuff and agree the movement seems much more impressive. -Paul
[2022-10-02 00:59:40] - hmm. i had never heard of it. do you think optimus could be important? what's the end-goal? i could imagine using one for fun, but they're probably expensive? optimus seems much less advanced than the boston dynamics robot definitely watch the end, those bots are doing fucking back-flips but maybe it's cheaper? but meh, i like do it. it seems on par with the toyota robot? ~a
[2022-10-02 00:05:29] - a: Regarding Elon Musk being over/under-rated because of the success (or lack thereof) of his non-Tesla companies.... Do you have any thoughts on Optimus and if it's something that could be important or just another Starlink / Hyperloop "flop" (in your eyes)? -Paul
[2022-09-30 18:14:46] - a: Heh, yeah, I saw that tweet and can totally believe it. -Paul
[2022-09-30 18:14:18] - yeah i got the joke.
~a[2022-09-30 18:14:03] - a: Sorry, it was a dumb joke about doing the right thing having "costs" -Paul
[2022-09-30 17:20:37] - i was wondering this the first time i saw the original tweet. like 90% of the company probably rolls its eyes every time he tweets something. ~a
[2022-09-30 17:20:19] - 911 is likely free on most phones. ~a
[2022-09-30 17:19:52] - a: Couldn't you have called 911 collect? -Paul
[2022-09-30 17:01:14] - i also go to protests where people are sometimes hurt. in my last house, when the upstairs neighbor was having an emergency medical issue, i called 911. ~a
[2022-09-30 16:59:57] - sometimes doing the right thing has its costs. ~a
[2022-09-30 16:58:21] - a: So if we find you dead on the side of the road.... we have some suspects? -Paul
[2022-09-30 15:37:18] - 18-wheeler truck (look at the two pictures under "i took a picture of a guy parked in a bike lane" for context). yes, i've seen him. TONS of times. we've had words many times. and by "him" i should actually refer to his *company*. because a couple times i saw a different guy, also parked in the bike lane the same way. neither of them seemed to concerned by me or the law. but now they don't park in the bike lane anymore. *shrug* ~a
[2022-09-30 15:27:44] - a: You have seen HIM? Or just his car? Has he seen you? -Paul
[2022-09-30 15:24:31] - yeah. i still see him. every day. during rush hour. just not in the bike-lane anymore. ~a
[2022-09-30 15:23:02] - a: 26 times!? Jeez. That's some dedication. Are you sure he didn't just move or something?
-Paul[2022-09-30 15:19:00] - paul: over the past 3.5 years, i called the local non-emergency phone number twenty six times (so, less than once per month) and also waited for parking enforcement to come at least once. well, so: he finally stopped parking in the bike lane. i'm so happy that finally that highly-trafficked bike-lane is usable for bikes for an extra hour per day during rush-hour. ~a
[2022-09-30 15:17:47] - paul: OH, that reminds me! this conversation we had in 2019 (the conversation started earlier on that page when i said "i took a picture of a guy parked in a bike lane..."), about a truck parking in a bike lane. and me being sad about it. ~a
[2022-09-30 15:12:24] - yeah, i saw that. my first thought: "i'd do it for free". ~a
[2022-09-30 15:06:16] - a: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/nyc-may-pay-people-for-reporting-bike-lane-blockers Thought you might like this. -Paul
[2022-09-30 14:47:00] - paul: eliminating a service doesn't always save the taxpayers money. i'll presume that will be your goal, but it's probably complicated. ~a
[2022-09-30 13:51:54] - Daniel: Have a guess? Also, I appreciate that the way Adrian decided to phrase his guess for my deepest, darkest desire as "eliminate a service" instead of maybe saving taxpayers some money.
-Paul[2022-09-29 22:10:36] - ok, that's probably enough info, thanks. it means you aren't going to be dealing with property taxes or school boards or that sort of thing. looking at what VA taxes go to it's in order: education (huh, wow), health care, transportation, administration, public safety, and misc. so, assuming it's related to state taxes (it doesn't have to), it'll likely be, wow, i have no idea. i give up paul. my money is on eliminating a service. ~a
[2022-09-29 22:02:53] - a: I'm still a tiny bit unclear what office would be ideal for me to make an impact for my issue. -Paul
[2022-09-29 22:02:22] - a: It's still a bit up in the air, but I was thinking state senate. My senator is up for re-election next year and has been in office since 1992(!) -Paul
[2022-09-29 21:54:40] - man, this is a fun puzzle. can you tell us what the office would be? that won't give away the answer i don't think. ~a
[2022-09-29 21:53:22] - i doubt you'd run on decreasing taxes and running a defect, so it'll probably be a service you're eliminating if it's anathema to democrats. so, maybe my initial thought was wrong. (either that or something related to abortion or guns, but i think that's unlikely knowing you) ~a
[2022-09-29 21:51:29] - https://reason.com/2022/09/28/migrant-kids-in-biden-administrations-tent-camp-faced-distress-and-panic-attacks-because-of-dysfunction/ At least it's kids in tents and not cages? -Paul
[2022-09-29 21:51:18] - aDaniel: I will give you all the rest of this evening to guess! -Paul
[2022-09-29 20:44:46] - ha. i have the same question. let's guess! something related to taxes (or otherwise something directly related to paying money to the government. i.e. nothing related to healthcare/human-services or transportation or military/homeland-security or technology or agriculture/fda or energy). ~a
[2022-09-29 20:21:09] - paul: what would be your "main issue"? -Daniel
[2022-09-29 19:43:56] - It's frustrating because I once again am a tiny bit interested in exploring running for office but I see absolutely no path for it. My main issue would be anathema for Democrats. Republicans have too much baggage (specifically in Northern Virginia) and 3rd parties virtually have no chance even if they weren't imploding. -Paul
[2022-09-29 19:41:13] - https://www.thedailybeast.com/libertarian-party-is-fighting-a-civil-war-over-its-right-wing-mises-caucus Speaking of third parties, the LP continues to absolutely fracture in an ugly civil war that I think makes both sides look bad. Oof. Politics has rarely been more depressing for me. -Paul
[2022-09-29 19:38:43] - but i'd also expect biden to promote forced speech. ~a
[2022-09-29 19:38:14] - xpovos: ah sure. i only read the reason link. if there's more to it, that wouldn't surprise me. buuuut, otoh, i don't expect much out of abbot. i would fully expect him to promote forced speech. ~a
[2022-09-29 19:37:13] - booker worked with *cltuches pearls* republicans and supported *gasp* school choice. Buttigieg was a racist. Beto was too white. Kamala’s ineptitude should be pretty obvious now. - mig
[2022-09-29 19:36:22] - I'm really interested in the Texas case, because it feels way more complicated (to me) than I think a or Paul are talking about. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-29 19:35:35] - I was onboard with Stadia initially. But once I saw the pricepoints I retracted. You can't come in with hardware and software that's just as expensive as everyone elses, with a downside, and expect it to work. When I was pro-Stadia it was because I expected Google to be willing to take a signifcant loss in the early years to establish the product and credibility (and market share). -- Xpovos
[2022-09-29 19:35:31] - paul/mig: mmmm. yes. this is true, i agree. ~a
[2022-09-29 19:35:07] - paul: another issue is most of the candidates apparently committed unforgivable sins in the eyes of some people. - mig
[2022-09-29 19:34:39] - a: I think it's a criticism of FPTP and an improper conflation of centrism with voting your conscience. For example, I guess if 60% of people hate the Nazi party but the two non-Nazi candidates split the anti-Nazi vote, then the Nazi candidate can win with 40% of the vote? -Paul
[2022-09-29 19:28:55] - pierce: i don't understand your reply.
paul: i don't understand pierce's reply. i FEEL like he's MAYBE saying that nobody votes 3rd-party because nobody is very-near-them in their beliefs. iow, "Biden/Trump both had/have negative approval ratings" would a third party have a MORE negative approval rating? again, i'm just guessing what he could mean, i'm not sure i actually believe any of this myself. ~a[2022-09-29 19:15:59] - a: Did you see Pierce's reply to my tweet and do you understand it? I am completely lost and feel like we're talking past each other. -Paul
[2022-09-29 18:44:53] - ah yes the "his turn" bs. i think it's bs, but i have to say that the republicans are far worse at that. maybe not in recent days, but back in our childhood, everybody who rose to power in the republican party (speaker, senate majority leader, etc) did so because it was "their turn". ~a
[2022-09-29 18:44:07] - Biden won for probably similar reasons. - mig
[2022-09-29 18:43:31] - in the nominee process. Clinton didn’t win because she was the best candidate. It was because it was “her turn”. - mig
[2022-09-29 18:43:18] - what sort of entitlement problem? ~a
[2022-09-29 18:42:49] - paul: There’s also a bit of an entitlement problem
[2022-09-29 18:37:15] - I get that Biden was viewed as the safest option to beat Trump, but I have no earthly idea why. Before Obama tabbed him as VP, he had tried running for President many times and never made a splash. He was just as old as Trump (so couldn't play the age card) AND seemed less mentally fit than Trump (which is saying something). Why wouldn't a vibrant Booker or Buttigieg be better? -Paul
[2022-09-29 18:34:20] - a: Oh, yeah, I use google stuff every day obviously. Lots of google sheets and drive and maps and mail (obviously). Android phone. It just seems like they used to come out with some awesome new life changing product every year (which stuck around) and now they're multiple years late to offering a "me too" product which feels halfhearted and doomed to get shut down after a few years. -Paul
[2022-09-29 18:16:28] - paul: google calendar (2006). how did i leave that off? i'm constantly using google calendar and google meet (2017) for literally every meeting. all of my customers also use google calendar and google meet for everything. i kinda get pissed off when someone tries to use zoom or teams. my customer even paid fuck-tons of money for zoom hardware, and everybody in their company (and mine) just started using meet anyways. ~a
[2022-09-29 18:13:29] - mig: agreed, desantis would beat trump (in a primary) or biden or harris (in a general) today. so much can change in 2 years though. ~a
[2022-09-29 18:09:37] - Especially since my money is on desantis to knock Trump off the stage. In which case I don’t see any dem nom having a chance. - mig
[2022-09-29 18:08:40] - Though I have doubts that will hold for 2024. - mig
[2022-09-29 18:08:19] - paul: biden probably had the highest probability of beating Trump vs all the other nominees. - mig
[2022-09-29 17:56:33] - paul: Safe choice just to beat Trump. /shrug. I don't think he is great / amazing or any of that but I can see the appeal of "safe" when Trump is running. -Daniel
[2022-09-29 17:56:29] - paul: yeah, google docs once had its own drive-like functionality so it's probably only technically 2012? i definitely was sharing directories etc in 2010 when i started my company. i still use it like crazy every day. same with google maps (2005). and tons of google apps (2008) on android (2008). i fully expect they will disrupt some industries in the future. i'm a google shareholder. ~a
[2022-09-29 17:56:23] - paul: shit i forgot about chromecast (2013). probably a shared-disrupter with tivo (1999?) and roku (2008). ~a
[2022-09-29 17:43:51] - a: I can't believe Democratic primary voters went with him. He was clearly losing it during the primaries and there were plenty of candidates that seemed more mentally sharp. -Paul
[2022-09-29 17:42:23] - a: Oh, wow, Google Drive was more recent than I thought. I assumed those were all like 2005.
Fair. I change "decades" plural to "decade" singular. Agreed they don't need to revolutionize something every 10 years to be a good investment. I just am skeptical of Google disrupting pretty much anything going forward. They might as well be IBM or Intel to me. -Paul[2022-09-29 17:40:34] - he shouldn't have run. i blame him for running. ~a
[2022-09-29 17:39:55] - Yeesh. So yesterday Biden was looking for a dead congresswoman and today Kamala said we had an alliance with North Korea? I know Bush is generally acknowledged as the gaffe master but I feel like the current admin combined has surpassed him. I actually feel pretty bad for Biden since it really does seem like he's losing his mental faculties and who can blame him at his age? -Paul
[2022-09-29 17:35:13] - paul: you do NOT need to single-handedly revolutionize an entire freakin industry every 10 years to be successful in the stock market. ~a
[2022-09-29 17:34:35] - paul: maybe you just lump all of this under "cloud", but i use google docs (2006), google sheets (2006), google drive (2012), every frekin day. all day: every day. and, like, who cares if it happened 10 years ago? the iphone was decades ago, and if apple had done nothing else besides foster the iphone in those ten years, their stock price will/did soar. ~a
[2022-09-29 16:52:56] - a: No doubt at all Google revolutionized a ton. But I guess my point is that they haven't revolutionized anything in.... decades? What was the last thing they revolutionized? At best they are co-leaders in things like mobile and cloud and autonomous driving. -Paul
[2022-09-29 16:26:38] - paul: yeah my only disagreement was about google as a whole maybe? or that they had a really good record (mixed record maybe) of revolutionizing industries. i correctly guessed that google would beat the market "does googl beat the market as of 2019-03-20?" googl definitely beat the s&p500 between 2019-03-20 and 2022-09-29. ~a
[2022-09-29 16:24:56] - a: Yeah, didn't see any notable supporters of Stadia, and I was about a year late, but still a pretty good call.
-Paul[2022-09-29 16:22:58] - i definitely was sorta agreeing with you at the time. i explicitly didn't take your bet. ~a
[2022-09-29 16:21:55] - lol i was just about to link that. ~a
[2022-09-29 16:21:41] - I feel like I was pretty spot on: https://aporter.org/msg/?action=prev&prev=150750#150799 -Paul
[2022-09-29 16:20:28] - https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/29/23378713/google-stadia-shutting-down-game-streaming-january-2023 Google is shutting down Stadia -Paul
[2022-09-29 14:11:32] - hopefully you're not asking me
(you've seen my two websites, this and cyclemap) but yeah, i say do it! too easy! ~a[2022-09-29 13:41:05] - I have zero web development skills. How hard would it be to set up a site like a simplified "I side with"? I have an idea I kind of want to try out and it seems like it should be relatively simple. -Paul
[2022-09-29 13:39:34] - a: The Texas Law? Yes, if I understand what you mean by forced speech. Unfortunately lots of Republicans seem to be set on fighting what they see as censorship with forced speech while also fighting things like CRT with censorship. It's an interesting position to take. -Paul
[2022-09-29 02:13:55] - mig: i love the busses and i love the metro. of course, it could be MUCH better (the headway is terrible), i've always thought that, but i'll definitely take it. do you think it's gotten worse? worse than it was in the 90s? i very much do not. i think it's gotten a million times better than it was in the 90s. just being able to see when the busses and trains are coming from my phone is a huge win. ~a
[2022-09-29 02:10:12] - isn't this the epitome of forced speech? (my first reason link?) ~a
[2022-09-29 00:31:09] - well, its nice for the buses i suppose. - mig
[2022-09-29 00:30:45] - a: wmata has pretty much become one of those things where I won’t take it even if you pay me. - mig
[2022-09-28 21:44:02] - dc council gives 100/month to dc residents for wmata (it's the normal wmata smart benefits without rollover, so balances that don't get used revert back). it just passed dc council. ~a
[2022-09-28 16:00:54] - https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/28/sport/chess-how-to-cheating-explainer-spt-intl/index.html Apparently there has been some instances of some crazy attempts at cheating in chess in the past. No anal beads, though. -Paul
[2022-09-27 15:20:26] - a: That's what I was thinking. No moving parts means no harm from vibration or anything. Just wanted to confirm I wasn't missing something. Thanks! -Paul
[2022-09-27 15:02:24] - paul: an ssd? you could leave it hanging there forever. it's an ssd, there are zero moving parts. ~a
[2022-09-27 15:01:35] - Follow-up from a previous (SC2?) convo: I ended up buying a 1TB SSD to replace my aging 1TB mechanical HD. I am having trouble finding the tray to mount the SSD in my case inside one of those mechanical HD sized bays. I'm wondering if there is any harm just having the SSD sitting around loose for an hour or so while I transfer data over and then re-use a different tray that I have. Should be fine, right? -Paul
[2022-09-27 13:37:14] - https://twitter.com/MagnusCarlsen/status/1574482694406565888 Magnus comes out and explicitly says he thought Niemann cheated. -Paul
[2022-09-26 23:10:59] - mmmm I can't commit this week, thanks though! I'll attend if I'm able any day. Ty! ~a
[2022-09-26 18:49:15] - a: votes on SC2? -Daniel
[2022-09-26 14:58:48] - Daniel: From what I can tell, it's a joke that some people are taking at least half seriously. But I agree, seems more a joke than anything else. -Paul
[2022-09-26 14:21:30] - paul: I heard the beads theory but never as more than a joke. -Daniel
[2022-09-26 02:37:07] - a: https://kotaku.com/chess-champion-anal-bead-magnus-carlsen-hans-niemann-1849542639 -Paul
[2022-09-25 14:32:01] - paul: i'm pretty sure i didn't hear the anal beads theory. and thank you! ~a
[2022-09-25 14:31:30] - xpovos: yes i think more trains are a must during the peak. some day we will prioritize public transportation, and the dc metro isn't terrible, but it could be way better: we could at least be slightly better than a european country in the middle of a war. ~a
[2022-09-25 13:54:57] - a: Also, happy birthday! -Paul
[2022-09-25 12:12:00] - re: The chess story. Nobody is mentioning the anal beads theory? -Paul
[2022-09-24 16:42:48] - The system is utilized sufficiently. It's just in disrepair. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-24 16:42:28] - through the 5 working turnstiles, e.g. So Union Station is one of those. From the platform to the mezzanine there are two escalators and a single elevator (10 people at a time maybe). Obviously only one escalator can be going up and one down. The up one about 300 people are trying to clamber onto all at once. Enough people got on it that the motor couldn't handle the mass and became stairs temporarily--while I was riding it. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-24 16:40:31] - Title: That's remarkable, and I feel. I was riding the Metro this past week and the trains are running infrequently (~10 minutes) so they're all very crowded during peak, so at major transfer stations, the volume of passengers entering and exiting is pretty extreme, which is causing the stations themselves to be overloaded at chokepoints as all of those people all try to ride the one escalator at the same time, or (...) -- Xpovos
[2022-09-21 22:07:12] - mig: yes so very true, i agree. npr also said he was being a bully. that being said it's probably hard to prove someone is cheating. I guess stop allowing bathroom breaks and online games. ~a
[2022-09-21 19:59:36] - and if magnus gets called out he can say, “i never *said* he cheated *wink*” - mig
[2022-09-21 19:58:48] - my hang up is I really dislike passive aggressive accusations. If Magnus is so sure Niemann cheated then say so publicly. If nothing comes out of this the at the end of the day Magnus used his clout to basically bully Niemann. - mig
[2022-09-21 13:46:59] - a: I do listen to NPR and saw some stuff about the chess things on reddit as well. I don't really have a strong opinion based on what I know. People seemed to have the vague assumption that the guy cheated somehow but that no one currently knows how so can't be totally sure. -Daniel
[2022-09-21 03:52:08] -
I heard about that on NPR just now. I don't! It seems like magnus wouldn't have taken such a drastic action on a hunch, but who knows. I think Ill wait to learn more before judging. xpovos and Paul also play. Daniel do you play chess? or listen to npr? ~a[2022-09-21 00:12:19] - a: do you have any thoughts on the magnuskarlsen/niemman drama? - mig
[2022-09-20 20:17:56] - a: That's why I'm terrified.
-- Xpovos[2022-09-20 20:12:37] - it's possible there is a bias, but you'd be surprised: i've done a lot of technical interviews for software engineers. ~a
[2022-09-20 20:02:14] - a: I think probably 80-95% of PHP developers are better than I am. I just think that there must also be a lot of people who aren't PHP developers taking that assessment for some reason. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-20 20:01:01] - well i like to be humble, but also i think a more balanced view is that 5% of php developers are better at php than you.
~a[2022-09-20 19:59:21] - a: "No one is good at PHP"? -- Xpovos
[2022-09-20 19:56:06] - you shouldn't be terrified though. just manage your expectations
~a[2022-09-20 19:55:42] - xpovos: fun, that's awesome. top 5%, good job! ~a
[2022-09-20 19:55:06] - I'm terrified. I've been playing around with LinkedIn assessmets today. Just took (and passed) the PHP assessment. The report is I am in the top 5% of all assessment takers for the PHP badge. I haven't coded any PHP in a decade, really. And I wasn't very good then. -- Xpovos
[2022-09-20 10:41:31] - I *think* the 50 that went to MV are mostly from Venezuela, and they might be a more legitimate refugee case. - mig
[2022-09-20 10:40:09] - daniel: immigrants are generally told to ask for asylum as refugees since its easier to get in that way than jus saying “i want a job.” - mig
[2022-09-20 00:56:26] - a: Yeah I'd want more info before saying they were lied to. I think that pamphlet is tricky because it probably depends on you being a refugee which I think is a legal designation you have to apply for. So might be one of those not a lie but still misleading things. -Daniel
[2022-09-19 22:30:42] - you really do love that phrase. i literally never said desatan man bad. ~a
[2022-09-19 22:29:27] - I need something a little more context here than "Desatan man bad". - mig
[2022-09-19 22:22:28] - is the lie these programs were made up? because they look real. - mig
[2022-09-19 22:22:14] - https://www.mass.gov/service-details/refugee-cash-assistance-rca
[2022-09-19 22:22:12] - https://www.mass.gov/refugee-employment-services-res
[2022-09-19 22:17:13] - mig: every word of it is a lie. i'm not sure if i see anything but lies. ~a
[2022-09-19 22:16:49] - there's no context for this image. - mig
[2022-09-19 22:16:41] - a: what's the lie? - mig
[2022-09-19 21:40:12] - mig/paul: i guess apparently there's new evidence on the desantis thing. "i have not seen evidence that they were lied to" they were lied to? "You can be thrown in jail or we'll fly you to Martha's Vineyard where they might treat you nicely" apparently this was not the scenario, no. ~a
[2022-09-19 21:31:37] - regulations for some, small american bikes for others. ~a
[2022-09-19 20:13:49] - more regulations! more bikes! Only allowing certain investments in 401k's! -Daniel
[2022-09-19 20:09:36] - no paul this week. what should we talk about that paul hates? ~a
[2022-09-17 20:47:31] - a: just about anything involving immigrants is going to be on the taxpayer dime, so its not a needle mover. - mig
[2022-09-17 03:50:49] - https://www.foxnews.com/media/reporter-msnbc-immigrants-not-angry-desantis-thanking-marthas-vineyard-flight I know it's Fox News, but this was the only article I saw claiming to have some opinions from the migrants themselves. -Paul
[2022-09-17 03:37:52] - a: Maybe there's even a tiny chance it changes some minds to get some immigration reform done? Probably unlikely, but if he keeps sending migrants their way.... NIMBYism is a powerful force. -Paul
[2022-09-17 03:37:04] - a: As political stunts designed to get support from their base, it's at least a helluva lot cheaper (and maybe more legal) than student loan forgiveness. And unlike student loan forgiveness, I don't think it will make the problem worse. -Paul
[2022-09-17 03:26:10] - a: and make them all look like hypocrites. -Paul
[2022-09-17 03:25:58] - a: Vacation. Smart political move wasn't intended to say I agreed with it. I just think he's kind of put his political opponents in a bad spot. Either they welcome them with open arms and so he ships more... or they use the national guard to take them to a military base... -Paul
[2022-09-17 03:12:55] - mig/paul: would it change your opinion at all if you found out that the flights were paid for with tax payer money? ~a
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