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[2024-01-10 17:19:03] - a: I definitely agree that I need help on the tax side, if that's what you mean by a retirement planner. Otherwise, I think a planner is likely to just tell me things I already know (not diversified enough, should be more in bonds, etc) which I don't necessarily agree with given my self-assessed risk tolerance. -Paul
[2024-01-10 17:17:33] - I'm willing to take on the downside risk for the increased upside. -Paul
[2024-01-10 17:17:16] - aDaniel: It sounds like the difference of opinion is if short term buckets should be majority bonds? That's certainly fair, especially in this interest rate environment. Maybe important context is that while this is technically a short term bucket, it's also not money I absolutely need to make rent or pay groceries or something. If it goes down, that wouldn't be ideal but it would be survivable. -Paul
[2024-01-09 22:12:55] - I'm similar enough to Adrian. I think having a short term bucket that is invested in stocks is probably not how I would do it but depends I guess on risk tolerance and how badly you are chasing returns. I think in general you seem pretty out on low return things I think? So maybe a stock like verizon is better for a short term bucket than some startup. -Daniel
[2024-01-08 19:45:59] - paul: you pay taxes on dividends as they are released, so do the math on that. i've noticed that even s&p500 dividends are getting large enough, they are inflating my adjusted income. ~a
[2024-01-08 19:45:50] - paul: my "now" bucket is 100% cash, my "soon" bucket is ~80% bonds, and my "later" bucket is ~20% bonds. (to get to those figures though, they had me answer a bunch of questions so they could suss out what kind of investor i was: as you'd probably expect i mostly wouldn't sell stocks in a down-market. ~a
[2024-01-08 19:44:26] - paul: my advisor had me organize my accounts into three buckets: "now", "soon", and "later". the point is in a down-market, you're only pulling from soon and now buckets, and everything is nbd. i like it. ~a
[2024-01-08 19:43:33] - paul: any advisor would tell you that early-retirement accounts should be safe investments (~80% bonds even if you wouldn't sell stocks in a down-year). however, you also pay taxes on any dividends so it's a bit of a balancing act. you should consider having a retirement planner. they definitely pointed out a bunch of stuff i was doing wrong, and all of their advice has made my retirement accounts seem a lot more organized. ~a
[2024-01-08 19:32:07] - paul: "one way trip or something" musk himself considered one-way if i recall correctly. you can change the wording of the proposal to include at least one person returning. try not too make it too morbid, i don't want to hope people will die
~a[2024-01-08 14:52:11] - aDaniel: I've actually been buying some dividend stocks like Verizon and Altria in my non-retirement investment account because I want to invest that money in something I think / hope will be a little less volatile short term. Those juicy dividend yields look pretty safe. I'm just hoping the stock price can stabilize (for Altria) or maybe even go up (Verizon). What do you think? -Paul
[2024-01-08 14:41:18] - a: Hmmmm, so you're essentially saying Musk won't be involved in the first manned Mars mission? That's an interesting bet. I could see a scenario where a daring other country might send a foolhardy manned mission there which is a one way trip or something. I'll have to think on it. I agree with Andrew that the death aspect gives me pause. -Paul
[2024-01-08 06:47:35] - feel free to make your own proposal. you can offset the death caveat pretty easily (success has to happen less than 5 years or 10 years after he dies). otherwise, it sounds like you agree that a successful manned mission to mars' surface won't be a mostly musk venture? ~a
[2024-01-08 04:04:28] - a: I won't take that one. I don't like too many of the caveats. I think it's plausible Musk sends ships to Mars, that he'll attempt live missions (animal, maybe even human), etc. But I think the odds of them being successful early are slim--this is a VERY hard thing to do. Further, Musk's lifestyle isn't the healthiest so his death caveat is a pain as well. If he died due to a cocaine overdose with a successful ship en route... -- Xpovos
[2024-01-07 00:16:26] - here's a proposal, if you want it, ( or, paul if you don't
). i'd bet $10 (or $20 if you'd prefer), even odds, that the first successful manned mission to mars surface will be 24% or less musk-related. bet will end early, and i win, if musk dies first. ~a[2024-01-06 19:07:59] - a: Manned? I with bet on Musk for manned. But I think he can get stuff on Mars probably pretty soon. — Xpovos
[2024-01-06 16:55:58] - but, we have to get over it. i mean, yeah, of course. but, could you have possibly worded that any worse? i hope to god a speech-writer didn't focus group this. that would be kinda gross. ~a
[2024-01-05 06:51:08] - a: https://www.ffxnow.com/2024/01/04/diy-construction-of-secret-tunnel-under-womans-house-halted-by-town-of-herndon/ More info about the tunneler... -Paul
[2024-01-04 18:37:17] - also from the same comments, who will get to mars first: elon musk? or someone not related to elon musk or any of his companies? i'd probably place an even-odds bet on this if anybody wants to take the elon side. ~a
[2024-01-04 18:34:59] - i just posted this to facebook under dewey's comments. it's from may. any thoughts on studying safety of other road users in the context of "crashworthiness"? (new word, woo!) ~a
[2024-01-04 01:48:22] - i woulda guessed 55 or 65, fuck me. ~a
[2024-01-04 00:53:59] - TIL that Ron Desantis is 45 years old. I'm not sure why that hit me hard. I guess I'm used to presidential candidates being like 70+ years old? Not used to them being close to my age. -Paul
[2024-01-03 21:28:11] - a: Ah, okay, so more like Herndon. Yes, the Mellow Mushroom closed recently. -Paul
[2024-01-03 18:56:51] - paul: according to randoms on the internet she is over by "alabama drive behind the old fuddruckers/dulles park barber shop" and/or "behind where the mellow mushroom was". wait, did they get rid of mellow mushroom in herndon? i've actually had pizza from there, ha. ~a
[2024-01-03 18:53:25] - seems dubious to me she'll get permitted, but she seems confident. "... little concerned about the lack of safety measures she appeared to be taking in her videos"
~a[2024-01-03 18:50:11] - paul: also doesn't answer your question, but there are more details here. "contrary to rumors here, it is constructed entirely below the slab of my house and it shouldn't be too hard to get the permits" . . . "wusa9 stopped by her home ... to speak with her" ~a
[2024-01-03 15:59:08] - paul: "try to pay off their student loans early" who cares if someone pays of their student loans early? if you have a good interest rate, i'm not sure why that would be financially recommended. i'm not getting any loan forgiveness and i'm definitely keeping (and not paying off) my many loans: i can get a better rate from a money market or bond or cd than my current loan rates. ~a
[2024-01-03 15:47:46] - paul: i'm not sure where in reston, no. (maaaybe, i think the people that figured out where she lived looked at her videos of the home depot trips she had made. if that is the case, we might not know where she lived) ~a
[2024-01-02 21:25:17] - a: Does it say where in Reston? I didn't see it mentioned in the thread. -Paul
[2024-01-02 21:24:43] - a: Agreed it's not real forgiveness, but there's still a lot of movement in that general direction. The thing is, I think the longer this goes on the worse the situation is likely to get because who in their right mind would try to pay off their student loans early right now if they might get forgiven? It might not even make sense to make your normal payments in this environment. -Paul
[2024-01-02 21:22:41] - a: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN19291968/ I don't know much about the specifics, but I think he was a pretty strong interventionist (and that translates to "warmonger" for some people). I wouldn't use the term to describe him, but I'm sure others would. -Paul
[2024-01-02 00:57:50] - why 2023 was the year of the e-bike and not the self-driving car ~a
[2023-12-31 03:20:37] - house republican: jeffrey epstein flight logs not released because colleagues would be 'compromised'. the where in the what-now? ~a
[2023-12-29 20:38:04] - rumors online are that this happened over the past year in reston. crazy stuff. ~a
[2023-12-29 20:37:57] - paul: they're still paying interest. and you're talking about a relatively small amount of time. shrug. ~a
[2023-12-29 20:36:35] - paul: was mccain a warmonger? i mean, (i know his stuff regarding the vietnam war and) i believe it, but i don't remember. ~a
[2023-12-29 18:57:26] - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/29/student-loan-borrowers-wont-face-penalties-for-missed-payments.html Saw this on CNBC and thought it was relevant to our previous discussion. Loan forgiveness might've been struck down but this admin is still doing everything they can to make it happen in small ways. -Paul
[2023-12-29 18:56:37] - a: It's..... not really a strategy I can get behind. -Paul
[2023-12-29 18:56:10] - a: I believe the same handle infamously trolled the McCain family when he died because they thought he was a warmonger. -Paul
[2023-12-29 18:55:19] - a: Yeah, pretty sure it is. This goes back to the (interesting to me, but likely not to others) intra-party revolution that the LP went through a year or two ago. Basically a more radical "trolling" faction called the mises caucus took over the party and one thing they seem to enjoy is getting attention with trolling type of stuff. -Paul
[2023-12-29 06:27:41] - a: i would agree the post is pretty dumb and I am not sure what the point is. The party attracts the weird and the politically homeless and sometimes the weird really sticks iut. - mig
[2023-12-29 05:53:54] - paul: is the libertarian party nh a real twitter handle? it looks real considering the other posts, but post looks pretty dumb. ~a
[2023-12-27 21:22:46] - a: Travis and I actually had an email exchange about this. I believe there is a software update to change this, as you said. -Paul
[2023-12-27 19:12:11] - (also read the top comment. this might be fixed already.) ~a
[2023-12-27 19:07:24] - hyundai ionic 5 braking and brakelights. fun. ~a
[2023-12-26 23:21:38] - a: Well, even Biden's original plan wasn't to forgive ALL student debt, right? But your point is taken. I did not mean to imply we had forgiven all (or even most) student loans. -Paul
[2023-12-26 20:27:12] - ah interesting ok. well fwiw, 39b is 2% of the loans. so, saying "we forgave student loans" seems like an oversimplification of "we forgave 2% of student loans". (i've read the article a few times, and am not sure what the 116b . . . means, but that's also ~6% of student loans) ~a
[2023-12-26 18:43:14] - a: https://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/biden-harris-administration-releases-state-state-data-39-billion-loan-forgiveness-804000-borrowers-result-fixes-income-dr I don't fully understand the details because I haven't been following it closely, but some forgiveness did happen despite it getting struck down by SCOTUS. -Paul
[2023-12-26 18:17:42] - paul: your sarcasm seems predicated on a . . . student loan forgiveness? no such forgiveness happened. if you're referring to biden's forgiveness earlier in 2023, that never happened: the supreme court ruled that it required a change in law which has not happened. Biden v. Nebraska ~a
[2023-12-26 17:58:49] - a: Thank goodness we forgave student loans and made no other changes to address skyrocketing amounts of student loans. I'm totally sure that won't make the problem even worse. -Paul
[2023-12-24 03:47:39] - i know i'm preaching to the choir here, but this graph is fascinating to me. what's interesting to me is how much it's changed between 2006 and 2022. 3x? 3x?!?! even if you scale this per capita (i used americans aged 15-64). it's still fucking 3x . . . like no fucking way. 3x. ~a
[2023-12-22 21:30:45] - paul: arkk has not. the s&p500 has, the nasdaq has, the dow industrials average has, basically every broad based index investor in the united states is back to where they were when this all started. they're even above where they were, if they held a healthy dose of bonds. where are daniel & matt to preach the gospel . . . ~a
[2023-12-22 21:23:02] - a: ARKK has not.
-Paul[2023-12-22 21:05:36] - paul: haven't both nasdaq and the s&p500 already rebounded? i mean, i get that you were quoting your thoughts from 2022, but i my point is a lot can change in two years. ~a
[2023-12-22 20:25:13] - a: I think I've mentioned it before, but even though there's plenty of stuff that I think Biden has done wrong, I give him credit for his moves on marijuana, Afghanistan (getting us out, not so much how it was pulled off) and maybe even KBJ. -Paul
[2023-12-22 20:23:13] - a: Oh, sure, the dollar amounts make a difference too. In 2008/2009, I was like, "Huh, my tiny amount of money got cut in half.... oh well. Plenty of time to rebound". 2022 was more like, "Last year I was planning out my retirement in 2029 and now I'm back to not even thinking about retirement since it's so far away". -Paul
[2023-12-22 20:02:43] - "including those who were never arrested or prosecuted" biden pardons marijuana use nationwide. jfc. ~a
[2023-12-22 16:57:50] - ah. well . . . the nasdaq drops were bad (and worse) in the past too, though, right? the nasdaq drop from 2000 to 2002 (top to bottom) was a 77% drop! that's like, almost all of the nasdaq just . . . disappearing. the recent nasdaq drop was "only" 36%. i think the difference (probably for you, and probably for me) is that we had much more money in the market in 2022 than we did in all of the previous drops. ~a
[2023-12-22 16:19:08] - a: So even though the S&P drop wasn't that bad, it felt a lot worse for me.
-Paul[2023-12-22 16:18:49] - a: For me, the S&P isn't as good a measuring stick for how I feel about my investments because I pretty much let my passive investments ride without constantly checking in on them while I check my active investments pretty much daily. And my active investments are more like the NASDAQ (dropped around 33%) or even more like ARKK (down like 75%). -Paul
[2023-12-22 14:48:03] - i have a hard time imagining how i would react today to a 56% drop in the stock market. yikes, it would be rough, right? i remember the exact day it happened in 2008, and i didn't really care that much. i was like, "wow". ~a
[2023-12-22 14:40:41] - we're within a few days of the 2-year anniversary of the all-time high of the s&p500: and within 1% of that value! looking back on the 2022 stock market drop, it's amazing to me how impactful the drop has been, but also how small the drop was. only a 25% drop from high to low. compare that to even 2020 (32% drop from high to low) and 2008 (56% drop from high to low) and 2000 (47% drop from high to low). ~a
[2023-12-21 18:06:32] - a: Yeah, I think we had this problem in the immediate aftermath. Was it a coup? Insurrection? Protest? Riot? Treason? All? Lots of those terms are pretty loaded too. I tend to think it wasn't a coup or insurrection or treason, but.... *shrug* -Paul
[2023-12-21 17:59:00] - ok. without a clear definition of what an insurrection is, i guess we're at a bit of an impasse. ~a
[2023-12-21 17:56:58] - a: But also, I think it's similar to the whole idea that somehow stacking the Supreme Court is the same as congress stalling on voting on the approval of a nomination. -Paul
[2023-12-21 17:56:02] - a: I'm saying I don't think either counts as: "a violent uprising against an authority or government" -Paul
[2023-12-21 17:54:15] - paul: regardig youtube. hmmm? you're equating electors deciding who to vote for, to . . . having a board of fake electors? do you consider these the same thing? ~a
[2023-12-21 17:47:46] - a: I get it, it's not good. And the intentions were bad. Agree with all of that. But if January 6th was an insurrection it was the most poorly planned and executed one of all time. A bunch of random yahoos strolled into the capitol (sometimes violently, but also sometimes non-violently) and walked around acting like fools and taking pictures before.... accomplishing nothing? -Paul
[2023-12-21 17:46:06] - a: That plan seems only barely related to January 6th, though, right? Or am I missing something? Also, do we really want to start considering playing with the electoral college an insurrection? https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=u3VtvaV1x2g -Paul
[2023-12-21 16:54:13] - a bit of an aside, but it wasn't only mike pence we have to thank for it failing. i think mitch mcconnell and lindsey graham also went above and beyond to undo the attack. mike pence, mitch mcconnell, lindsey graham, eugene goodman and his coworkers and cohorts. there are a lot of people that stuck their neck out that day/night. you wanna call it a protest, like any other, you can. but i have trouble making sense of it. ~a
[2023-12-21 16:41:22] - paul: this was the eastman plan. imo, it's clearly planned. it has intent. the * only * reason we don't fuss over it, is because it failed. if it had succeeded, we'd all be living in a very weird world today. i guess only time will tell, but to say that there was no plan, seems a bit narrow minded to me. ~a
[2023-12-21 16:26:09] - a: Like, we've seen a ton of political protests / riots / etc (on both sides, but also more often on the left) recently involving occupation (or burning down) of government buildings. I feel like we don't want to go down the lane of broadening the definition of insurrection. -Paul
[2023-12-21 16:25:00] - a: "where's the line, man?" I think there has to be some sort of clear planning and intent? I get the motivation was perhaps to interfere with election certification, but there was pretty clearly no coherent plan. You mean to tell me there were hundreds of insurrectionists and none brought a gun or accomplished much beyond taking pictures in sensitive places despite capitol police being unable (or unwilling) to keep them out? -Paul
[2023-12-21 02:46:11] - a: If there's evidence Trump helped plan and communicate the riot at the capitol, then you'd be right. I have seen no such evidence, though. - mig
[2023-12-21 00:28:55] - mig: encouraging a protest isn't a crime, as it shouldn't be. communicating about and planning a riot on the other hand: illegal. communicating about and planning a riot where the target is the literal seat of federal power: insurrection. almost by definition? again, if this wasn't an insurrection, i'm not sure what is. and if trump didn't make it happen, i'm not sure why you or paul don't think that. ~a
[2023-12-20 23:30:02] - a: I’m comortable calling the riot an insurrection, and also holding those who participated accountable legally. What I haven’t seen is enough to link Trump directly to the rioting. Encouraging protest isn’t a crime (at least it shouldn’t be) even if your protest is dumb and even if it might be founded upon by falsehoods. - mig
[2023-12-20 22:43:11] - paul: where's the line, man? if january 6th wasn't an insurrection, i have a hard time imagining what a modern day insurrection would even look like. i mean, it'd look . . . sorta the way it did look. and it'd unfold, sorta the way it did unfold. if you don't think trump made it happen, i have a hard time imagining why you don't think that. he told them to do what they then went and did. eastman said we gotta do this, let's do it. ~a
[2023-12-20 20:05:03] - a: I tend not to think of Jan 6th as an insurrection, nor do I think Trump "gave comfort" to an insurrection. -Paul
[2023-12-20 20:04:07] - a: I'm not familiar enough with all of the legalities to say if the decision was the correct one, but at a high level I think it's a mistake that is only going to increase Trump's popularity and further radicalize people who think nefarious forces are trying to steal the election AND that democracy is in peril. -Paul
[2023-12-20 19:25:09] - there was pretty clear coordination in my mind. but imo, he's innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. so i dunno what colorado is doing. maybe i don't get it. "charges" are enough? ~a
[2023-12-20 19:15:01] - a: so there’s been so many legal cases thrown out there that definitely slipped by me. That being said absent evidence he was physically there or direct coordination with the people who were it’s difficult for me to say yes to “engage, give aid or comfort to insurrectionists” - mig(I’m very sure ion the former, less on the latter)
[2023-12-20 18:08:36] - mig: "I don’t recall him being charged directly for stuff that happened on 1/6" usa v donald trump. yes, he's definitely been charged for this. the jack smith case is about the insurrection. the trial is scheduled for march 4th. ~a
[2023-12-20 18:01:03] - I’ve said before holding him politically and morally accountable for 1/6 is fine, legally holding him accountable gives me a bit of pause. - mig
[2023-12-20 17:59:51] - a: I think the decision is incorrect. I don’t recall him being charged directly for stuff that happened on 1/6 (i think) and in my mind that’d be a requirement to invoke this clause, as the case cited as precedent involved someone who directly participated in 1/6 and wqs charged for it. - mig
[2023-12-20 16:11:03] - link to text of 14th amendment. section 3 is the one in question. i guess it 100% comes down to was the jan 6 insurrection an insurrection? and did trump engage, give aid, or give comfort in said insurrection? a bit sad that the constitution doesn't define a test for who's an insurrectionist and who is not. ~a
[2023-12-20 15:51:42] - i guess, can we talk about colorado a bit? 1. did the colorado judicial make the right decision? 2. will the us supreme court overturn that decision? (obv they have the option to not hear the case). i have my thoughts, but was wondering you's guys'. ~a
[2023-12-19 21:46:20] - paul: "in all sorts of weather" the germans have an idiomatic expression for that: wir sind ja nicht aus zucker. ~a
[2023-12-19 21:43:52] - paul: wait wait wait wait. you decided to only look at the people who died driving into buildings, and . . . decided to ignore the over 500x people dying from outside of buildings? and you based your cost-effectiveness ignoring 99.9% of the deaths? if i told you that literally 675x more people die per year from cars, does that change the cultural calculus for you at all? ~a
[2023-12-19 20:13:24] - a: So, I don't know, I feel like the convenience we get from cars and being able to go long distances over short amounts of time in all sorts of weather is likely worth at least the same amount as being able to play in water? It's kind of a weird thing to compare, but how else do we determine how many deaths we're willing to accept as a culture? -Paul
[2023-12-19 20:11:35] - a: Heh, Gurkie sent that to me yesterday. Yeah, we heard about how cars driving into salons happens more often than you might think. I tried doing about 1 minute of research and it sounds like around 2k people die each year from cars driving into stores, which was a lot higher than I thought, but it's also lower than the roughly 3k people who die from drowning? -Paul
[2023-12-19 19:18:00] - paul: remember when i was like "cars drive into buildings often". and it implied a problem with cars and safety: if cars are driving into buildings, there's literally * nothing * pedestrians can do to be safe. and you came back with "yeah, it happens, but it's also not like going on left and right". well this one is a little bit on the nose (no injury) ~a
[2023-12-19 19:17:50] - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/trump-wipes-out-bidens-lead-with-latino-voters-in-2024-cnbc-survey-.html Does this speak more to Trump's appeal or disapproval of Biden? -Paul
[2023-12-18 16:15:47] - a: I only heard about the whole Potomac Yard thing like last week. As I understand it, the arena isn't close enough to our salons to benefit us, so I don't care too much.
More seriously, always going to be against subsidies for billionaire sports team owners. -Paul[2023-12-17 01:38:54] - I was seriously wondering about that. I feeeeel like you could maybe do it, but I get it. it would be very hard. ~a
[2023-12-17 00:22:18] - a: Yes, but you’d need someone not playing to play physically because the deck needs manipulation that is unknown to the players, but is either impossible or very difficult to process at the table without inadvertently spilling. — Xpovos
[2023-12-16 07:36:41] - xpovos: it's a regular deck of cards and poker chips? ~a
[2023-12-16 05:51:16] - yikes, if you were on the fence about this project before, hopefully you aren't any longer. ~a
[2023-12-16 00:24:03] - Anyone here played Figge? It's a market-trading card game developed by Jane Street. It's interesting for the imperfect knowledge system, knowledge asymmetries and, of course a pretty solid market/bidding system. Feels like it'd be up the ally of quite a few people here. -- Xpovos
[2023-12-15 22:03:49] - paul: "I plead ignorance" yeah, i was the same. but unlike you, i had thousands of ishares . . . shares. ishares=blackrock. i've since sold them all (they were in retirement accounts, so i didn't *also* get hit with a tax). ~a
[2023-12-15 21:06:27] - a: Yeah, so it sounds like these complaints against Blackrock are different from the stuff I hear about Vanguard and are more serious. I plead ignorance. I don't know what they have been doing (or accused of doing). I guess they're abusing their voting power? -Paul
[2023-12-15 20:19:53] - paul: "because the asset manager is the legal owner of the securities in each fund, fund investors do not have the right to vote the proxies". i actually didn't even realize that first part. i always thought they were managing my money, but (strictly technically) they are not? i figured if they went belly up, i would have legal rights to the underlying shares: i feel like that is eroded if they technically own the underlying assets. ~a
[2023-12-15 17:32:56] - paul: "who don't really understand how passive investing works" i feel like i understand how passive investing works. "Vanguard is some nefarious company that owns everything" afaik vanguard isn't doing anything shady with their position like blackrock is. and controlling an asset under management does give you some ability to affect things. lobbying for one. or voting: i'm not sure passive investors are ever expected to vote. ~a
[2023-12-15 17:31:06] - paul: yeah, i meant regarding the efficiency of price-discovery. not that i thought you felt nobody should use passive investing. i think we all agree if 100% of investments are passive, then efficient price-discovery goes out the window. i've heard you make arguments about what % things start to get problematic. ~a
[2023-12-15 17:27:21] - xpovos: sounds like success to me, nice. if they knock out N% of the fair jumpers: assuming N isn't ridiculously low, i see it as a win. i still don't know if i've seen the new fair-gates yet. (i've seen videos, but not in person. they aren't at any of the ~5ish different stations i've entered/exited in the past few months?) ~a
[2023-12-15 00:39:44] - I saw my first fare jumper post installation. It was extremely awkward. And he did it at a place where the plastic barriers were not properly erected near a wall, allowing a gap. And it was still slow and obvious, so much better chance of apprehension, I should think. So another small fix probably helps more and even then it's way reduced... though that may be a bit overly optimistic. It's early, let's see how the summer goes. -- Xpovos
[2023-12-14 17:24:56] - https://twitter.com/Tesla_Optimus/status/1734756150137225501 Have you all seen this? Seems pretty impressive, assuming none of it is altered. -Paul
[2023-12-14 17:04:24] - Stock market went BOING, but especially real estate stocks (RDFN and RKT). -Paul
[2023-12-14 17:04:04] - Daniel might be interested in this, but I've got some excess money outside of retirement funds where I want something a little safer and so I plopped it into Altria (MO) and Verizon (VZ) for those juicy yields. -Paul
[2023-12-14 17:03:08] - a: I don't know much about Blackrock. Most of what I hear seems to come from conspiracy theorist types who don't really understand how passive investing works so they worry that Vanguard is some nefarious company that owns everything. -Paul
[2023-12-14 17:01:43] - a: "anti-index-fund stance" I understand why you say that, but just to be very clear, I think index funds / passive investing is likely the right call for 90%+ of people. Half my retirement money is in index funds. -Paul
[2023-12-13 19:29:27] - stock market just went BOING. ~a
[2023-12-12 14:22:03] - it feels like the 51% problem in bitcoin, honestly. similar situations: where, for example, if blackrock (or a mining pool) did anything too terrible, people would just leave the fund. but in practice, people do not leave even when what blackrock (or a mining pool) does, is pretty bad for everyone. ~a
[2023-12-11 22:45:35] - another related fact, if you take the total funds controlled by blackrock+vanguard+statestreet you got 22t (in 2022) which was over half of the value of the whole s&p500. (they . . . don't control half of the s&p500, but the point is they control a lot) ~a
[2023-12-11 22:42:08] - it also seems like i'm arguing alongside at least one of the gop nominees for president in 2024. link ~a
[2023-12-11 22:40:16] - any thoughts on blackrock inc? i've heard very bad things about them online, and it appears they own 11% of the s&p500, which is more than any other entity. paul, with your anti-index-fund stance (or was it anti-passive investing stance), i'm sure the "biggest offender" of this inefficiency would be something you'd be worried about. but in this case, blackrock seems especially malevolent in how they wield their position. ~a
[2023-12-11 20:41:10] - it's fair to say he accelerated it, you bet. ~a
[2023-12-11 20:31:30] - I assumed Musk originated it because I had never even heard of it until the acquisition. Fair to say he accelerated it? -Paul
[2023-12-11 16:58:24] - mig: you called it "musk's twitter", and i thought i would mention that it's not something musk did. but you aren't wrong, it was way less popular when he bought the company. ~a
[2023-12-11 14:14:02] - a: I'll push back on the community notes thing a bit. It may have been created before he bought twitter, but it's been a more prominent feature since he took over. I'm not sure I even saw community notes in use on twitter pre-Musk. - mig
[2023-12-10 18:12:56] - I'm generally not a fan of the bibi regime, and generally anti-war, but the amount of expectations placed on Israel in this conflict seems utterly fucking insane. - mig
[2023-12-10 18:11:51] - https://www.npr.org/2023/12/08/1218332312/israel-hamas-war-us-ceasefire-veto-un so let me understand this - the initial ceasefire was blatantly broken by 1) Hamas refusing to turn over hostages that were all agreed should have been released beforehand and 2) Hamas militants killing 3 Israelis at a bus stop and 3) Hamas resuming rocket attacks. Israel obviously responds and then the UN ... demands Israel seek another ceasefire. - mig
[2023-12-08 19:29:40] - meh, nah, it's somewhere halfway between those two sentiments. ~a
[2023-12-08 18:40:54] - a: But if your argument is that Musk lucked into success with Paypal and Tesla and didn't meaningfully contribute to success there.... I'm not sure I agree. -Paul
[2023-12-08 18:40:06] - a: If your argument that Musk is brilliant in some areas and a moron in others, but he thinks that because he is smart in some areas it gives him overconfidence in areas outside of his expertise.... I agree with that. I think that's true for like 99% of smart people. -Paul
[2023-12-08 16:34:40] - paul: "What percentage of Tesla/SpaceX success do you attribute to Musk?". less percentage than larry page or sergey brin. less than gates. less than buffett. less than zuckerberg. but spacex was *not* a fluke. ~a
[2023-12-08 15:41:00] - a: "he's gifted, i won't deny it. but he's also got a nice mixture of also being a complete moron who has really smart people doing hard work at his companies" I guess I'm not sure how to square this. What percentage of Tesla/SpaceX success do you attribute to Musk? I can understand downplaying his contributions to Paypal. And I can even maybe understand thinking Tesla was a fluke. But SpaceX too? -Paul
[2023-12-07 20:12:03] - paul: the "on-brand part"? yeah. paypal, tesla, spacex, etc. he's gifted, i won't deny it. but he's also got a nice mixture of also being a complete moron who has really smart people doing hard work at his companies. ~a
[2023-12-07 19:00:07] - a: I assume your snarky comment is in reference to Tesla? -Paul
[2023-12-07 18:58:53] - a: "i foresee eventually they'll become trash" I'm shocked they have stayed as helpful as they have for as long as they have. Not sure what protections they have in place to avoid it becoming an impossible political battleground. -Paul
[2023-12-07 16:35:33] - community notes was created pre-musk's-twitter. it's on-brand for him to get credit for something other people have done. ~a
[2023-12-07 16:12:19] - community notes is the best thing about musk’s twitter. - mig
[2023-12-07 15:46:13] - paul: "I don't know if it is the cause of our worker shortage" agreed. even if it was the cause, and even if there was a problem, this is a terrible solution and she's littered it with other false statements. ~a
[2023-12-07 15:43:38] - yeah, i like community notes as they exist today. i foresee eventually they'll become trash, but right now, i like them. ~a
[2023-12-07 14:23:52] - https://twitter.com/sairasameerarao/status/1732481722627899671 I know lots of people who have been critical of Twitter / X under Musk, but can we at least all agree that community notes has been a net positive? If for no other reason than the comedic factor. -Paul
[2023-12-07 14:23:03] - a: I don't really agree with MTG, no. More people = more workers, but it also means more consumers and more demand for stuff. Does our reduced fertility as a nation mean problems for our government programs (SS) and certain budgets and other things? Sure. But I don't know if it is the cause of our worker shortage. -Paul
[2023-12-06 18:12:14] - i would never abuse power, except on day one. he's said this line more than once. it's a campaign promise. how am i supposed to fucking take this? it has not been said as a joke, he's serious. ok, so we won't assault any secret service officers, except on day one of his inauguration? like wtf? ~a
[2023-12-06 16:07:22] - do we even have a staffing shortage? how is that defined? some lines, but i'm not sure if any of them look concerning. won't low unemployment just lead to higher salaries? ~a
[2023-12-06 16:05:06] - there are major staffing shortages. forcing people who don't want to give birth, to give birth, seems a weird way of solving a staffing shortage. do you guys agree with mtg here? even the facts: "We have a population loss" seems to be the opposite of the truth. ~a
[2023-12-06 15:24:44] - Daniel: Following up on my gripe with the redraft league last night: I drafted two QBs (Anthony Ricahrdson and Kirk Cousins) and in the weeks I had them available (weeks 1-8), my team went 6-2. In the weeks after, I went 1-4. So, yeah, my team wasn't great and likely wasn't going to win it all, but losing both my starting and backup QB just killed my team. -Paul
[2023-12-06 05:37:23] - xpovos: i think it's vehicle impact speed. the underlying nhtsa data looks at "estimated vehicle travel speed" as well. but, i think the graph i posted does not. median impact speed is going to be less, but not vastly different from vehicle travel speed, since many times the brake is not applied. ~a
[2023-12-05 21:56:43] - a: on your linked infographic, does that consider velocity at impact, or original velocity if deceleration is applied? Drivers will think of initial velocity, not actual impact velocity, I’m fairly confident. — Xpovos
[2023-12-05 19:50:17] - a: I don't think we disagree. It's why my last 7 transactions involving Tesla stock have been sells. I don't think it's insanely overvalued here like it has been in the past, but I do think a lot needs to go right for them to live up to their market cap and I don't know how much upside there is to the stock here. -Paul
[2023-12-05 19:34:44] - paul: i hear you, that makes sense to me. on the other hand, even if 1, or 2, or 3 are true, but tesla is too overvalued, then the price would still go down. iow, you have to account for a very large increase in future profits to catch up with their current price vs earnings (760b vs 12b)? ~a
[2023-12-05 18:30:19] - a: I think if you're buying Tesla today, you're betting on roughly 3 things: (1) The trend towards EV adoption continues and their dominance in EV manufacturing holds up and as a result they continue to take more market share of all vehicles sold (2) FSD or Optimus eventually become a thing and become a game changer (3) We're underrating the potential of the solar / battery / charging businesses. -Paul
[2023-12-05 18:28:38] - a: Well, I think you're combining two things. It can both be true that (A) Tesla makes more per EV sold than any of the legacy car manufacturers do per EV sold and (B) Tesla the company is hugely overpriced given the number of cars they currently sell and the margins on those cars. -Paul
[2023-12-05 06:58:53] - mig: ha, no, if trump wins, he'll do terrible things, then leave in 2028. ~a
[2023-12-05 02:15:10] - a: if you want to make a bet if we will be able to vote for president in 2028 if Trump wins I am definitely down. - mig
[2023-12-05 02:07:29] - mig: i mean, yes? not all losses are the same. autocrats can and do win democratic elections. it sucks, but it happens. ~a
[2023-12-04 23:38:46] - https://www.forbes.com/sites/markjoyella/2023/12/04/liz-cheney-tells-nbc-a-vote-for-donald-trump-may-mean-the-last-election-you-ever-get-to-vote-in/amp/ democracy is over if democracy doesn’t give me the results i want. - mig
[2023-12-02 16:20:52] - paul: on top of that, i didn't realize that the battery and solar stuff were doing so badly. still today, they're only braking even. ~a
[2023-12-02 16:20:10] - paul: it's the earnings. tesla's price is about $500k per car annually sold (748e9/1.5e6). toyota's is $30k (314e9/10.5e6). the earnings per car is also different but not enough to account for this difference (down to something like $5k vs $1.5k per car, ish). using ford is even crazier ($1k/car annually sold) but i get that ford doesn't have the same sexiness. (also cyber-truck / market saturation / etc). ~a
[2023-12-02 04:59:31] - both. their eps and also their profit on their EV has changed drastically in 2023. link ~a
[2023-12-01 19:22:27] - a: "earnings on tesla shares are basically zero compared to other car companies" What metric are you referring to here? EPS? Because as I understand it, Tesla's EVs are much more profitable than EVs from other manufacturers. -Paul
[2023-12-01 16:42:20] - paul: i also get already that your case will be tempered (i did read your march update on tesla). ~a
[2023-12-01 16:01:30] - paul: pls make the case for tesla stock? i have only 10 shares and i'm considering selling 5. my biggest argument against holding those 5 extra shares are the earnings. earnings on tesla shares are basically zero compared to other car companies (many of them car companies with proven track records). in 2020-2022 tesla had little competition so they could afford to make profit on each car (~30%), but that's not the case in 2023-2024. ~a
[2023-11-30 22:25:20] - xpovos: some sort of education campaign. this is some complex non-intuitive math that i think the average car driver doesn't internalize. ~a
[2023-11-30 22:10:27] - xpovos: oh, i thought of a new one: when pedestrians and people on bikes are killed by car drivers, the driver's compensation is very small in the civil and criminal courts. we should consider changing laws so that their compensation is commensurate with the damage that drivers are collectively doing every day. ~a
[2023-11-30 22:03:25] - xpovos: i've seen the new fair-gates but i can't remember if i saw them at ballston or springfield. i like them, and they do look much harder to jump. ~a
[2023-11-30 21:59:55] - xpovos: i have lots more, but most of them spin off of things already here: for instance i think you can increase train/subway/bus throughput *without* increasing the total cost to the taxpayer, but you gotta do certain things like prioritizing bus-only lanes, and that sort of thing. ~a
[2023-11-30 21:56:04] - xpovos: when rebuilding current highways in cities, see what ulricht link or amsterdam link did. i don't have a solution for this one yet: but make cars lighter. and smaller (title: children are eight times more likely to be killed by an suv than a car). and have less physical separation from the other road users. ~a
[2023-11-30 21:55:50] - xpovos: (other things that libertarians will hate like subsidize public transportation from gas taxes and tolls). bike-bus. change speed limits in cities, especially ones that have great public transportation. stop building highways in cities (we've mostly figured this one out finally). ~a
[2023-11-30 21:54:59] - xpovos: increase congestion pricing (and decrease other fees to compensate). increase land taxes (and decrease other taxes to compensate). reduce burdensome parking minimums to allow private developers to make better decisions. add parking maximums in dense areas. get rid of the "beg button". make car lanes less wide (this has a big effect on decreasing speeding deaths). ~a
[2023-11-30 21:54:28] - xpovos: "do you have any other suggestions?" omfg yes. off the top of my head: enforce current laws. enforce current laws (i have this one twice, because very few car drivers actually want this). changing burdensome zoning to allow private developers to make better decisions. increase gas taxes+tolls until they * actually pay for the roads * (and decrease other taxes to compensate). ~a
[2023-11-30 21:47:44] - paul: the reader notes there seem to address biden's mistake. ~a
[2023-11-30 21:25:06] - paul: "Why can't they just use normal terminology like folders like everybody else?" i mean big-shrug. but, it seems like they've been doing this for going on 20 years (for close to 20% of the population of the planet). there is at least some consistency to be admired. ~a
[2023-11-30 19:47:46] - https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1730247565537390998 I know Trump set a new standard of lying which has yet to be topped and so we're all kind of numb to things like this, but this is so incredibly bad. Inflation coming down doesn't mean prices come down.... it means prices don't go up as fast. To not know that (or willfully lie about it) while also trying to pin the blame on price gouging is a bad look. -Paul
[2023-11-30 19:45:04] - Very unrelated, but hear me out, Metro has been installing anti-fare-jump panels at their turnstyles in a lot of major stations. Since they put them in at the stations I frequent, I've seen a 100% reduction in fare jumping by what is effectively just a fairly small piece of plastic. It's remarkable. So, a seemingly intractible problem is actually phenomenally simple to solve, when approached from a different perspective. -- Xpovos
[2023-11-30 19:44:56] - a: "make sure to have "Skip the Inbox (Archive it)" checked, and you probably ALSO want to apply a label or category or something i dunno" Okay, so if I archive it AND apply a label, it will not be in my inbox but I can still look at those messages by searching for the label? That would do it. Why can't they just use normal terminology like folders like everybody else? -Paul
[2023-11-30 19:43:20] - a: Those are impressively high numbers. Obviously, a preferred answer is to reduce cars, but in the near term, do you have any other suggestions? -- Xpovos
[2023-11-30 19:10:58] - pedestrian deaths in dc have hit a 16-year high: ~7/100k. dc has recently removed all accountability for drivers: md and va drivers can basically ignore all tickets. and now dc residents can as well if they park off-street. the us total stats (nationally ~2.5/100k). 7/100k is the same number of US people murdered by guns (another 7/100k is suicide). ~a
[2023-11-30 15:06:21] - mig: "The big mad looks like to be ending" i'm pretty sure, no, the big mad is going down now? the shares of twtr that musk bought from me for $44b are now worth much less than half of that at $19b. $19b is his own assessment, so it could be considerably off. ~a
[2023-11-30 14:34:51] - paul: settings -> see all settings -> filters and blocked addresses -> create filter -> ... -> make sure to have "Skip the Inbox (Archive it)" checked, and you probably ALSO want to apply a label or category or something i dunno. ~a
[2023-11-30 04:42:35] - more like 1989. i am able to do that in gmail though. im no gmail expert but i can do that. ~a
[2023-11-30 03:47:15] - I can't believe we are in the year of our lord 2023 and gmail still doesn't have a way to filter certain emails out of my inbox into a separate folder. This was like the most basic functionality that every other email client in like 1999 had, no? -Paul
[2023-11-29 16:12:12] - mig: It often does. Feels like companies / the media likes to make a big deal about quitting twitter / x and are a lot more quiet when they come back. -Paul
[2023-11-29 02:40:53] - paul: I’ve checked some of those accounts and they’ve starting activity again. The big mad looks like to be ending. - mig
[2023-11-28 19:59:47] - mig: it'll happen eventually, musk is just too much of an idiot. in addition to paul's link as a source, i'll include this one as well. ~a
[2023-11-28 19:59:26] - mig: yes, i agree. a migration likely won't be to mastadon, and it will take decades, or longer. twitter is just too . . . perfect . . . for what we need today, and the network effect is too massive. something new will come along eventually but i promise i won't hold my breath. ~a
[2023-11-28 19:54:56] - paul: "whenever tax codes disincentivize improvement" you're right. it does border-line do that. but on the other hand, i think all taxes do. and most of them do it even more explicitly and more exponentially (i.e. all progressive tax systems, which lvt generally is not). ~a
[2023-11-28 19:46:33] - article from 2022 about how the dunning-kruger effect does not exist. fascinating. it makes sense to me. ~a
[2023-11-28 19:33:15] - a: "the value he's going to get back is orders of magnitude more than the difference in tax" Agreed, I just always worry whenever tax codes disincentivize improvement (and it kind of goes against one of the main tenants of the video about how this tax would incentivize good behavior all around). -Paul
[2023-11-28 19:11:21] - mig: https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/27/media/elon-musk-x-ads-reliable-sources/index.html On CNN today... -Paul
[2023-11-28 19:06:45] - https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/06/op-ed-why-the-great-twittermigration-didnt-quite-pan-out/ i was thinking about mastadon the other day and I’m still waiting for that death of twitter/x that everyone was predicting. - mig
[2023-11-26 22:17:58] - paul: the value he's going to get back is orders of magnitude more than the difference in tax. ~a
[2023-11-22 19:44:17] - a: Maybe it's better to think about a city? Like, I get what you're saying about valuing the land is separate from valuing the improvements on the land, but if there is some rundown area of the city with abandoned buildings and a developer buys it and builds nice condos.... that's still going to pretty directly lead to an increase in the value of the land since now people are more interested in living in that area, right? -Paul
[2023-11-22 19:42:58] - a: I'm just trying to imagine what the scenario would look like and I imagine taking land that was never used for farming and converting it to usable for farming would probably mean removing impurities like rocks and roots and whatnot. -Paul
[2023-11-22 19:21:23] - paul: rocky? where did rocky come from? usually after you grow crops you have to rotate the field because of soil degradation. a grassy field does not have this problem? anyways, without getting too bogged down in details, you generally won't pay more for improving your land. there are edge cases where you could pay slightly more but even then you will usually get large value out of the land by comparison. ~a
[2023-11-22 18:49:31] - a: I guess I don't understand how you value the land for the purposes of taxes. It would seem like land which has rich soil prepared for crop planting would be objectively worth more than a grassy, rocky field that isn't good for much without a lot of work being done to it. -Paul
[2023-11-21 21:14:40] - maybe you've confused the value of land with the value you can get from the land. which is kinda the point i think. ~a
[2023-11-21 20:53:31] - paul: generally no. you make it worth less actually when you turn an acre of grassy field into a farmland.
don't worry your lvt would go down when you work hard to turn a grassy field into a farmland! what does have a *positive* impact on lvt in the context of farmland: soil quality, water supply, and proximity to urban areas. i.e. your lvt should stay the same. adding a building changes real estate taxes, but, again, not lvt. ~a[2023-11-21 18:37:59] - a: Is it not? Wouldn't productive farmland be worth more than a grassy field? -Paul
[2023-11-21 17:25:36] - "works hard to turn it into productive farmland" i mean generally that's not really how land assessment works, so if those incentives seem off, maybe you're ok with it then
~a[2023-11-21 16:44:27] - a: The incentives for the latter seem off, and the former seems like it could hurt a lot of fixed income people who just want to keep the house they bought 30 years ago and have paid off. -Paul
[2023-11-21 16:43:54] - a: I just can't help but thinking it's a bad combination of: People can get "punished" (in terms of constantly increasing taxes) for owning a house in a popular area (which doesn't seem ideal), but also that if somebody buys a worthless tract of land and works hard to turn it into productive farmland.... they also get "rewarded" with much higher taxes as well. -Paul
[2023-11-21 14:34:37] - paul: "a moderate lvt in combination with something else like a moderate consumption tax" yes, i also think having multiple tax systems makes sense to me. i don't think we should only tax land. but i do think we could tax non-land less. "how do we determine the value of land?" i think he discusses this. it could be done exactly the same way we do it now: it can't be perfect, but it's not terrible, and it's scientific. ~a
[2023-11-21 14:29:19] - paul: but he never used the word evil. it's inefficient. "done very little to earn his wealth". "takes your money and spends it on themselves". he's painted a picture of them doing an inefficient thing and our inefficient system paying them heftily for it. in this case i agree with him. it's "fine", but inefficient: a more efficient system would be tending to use land for . . . something, anything. there's nothing evil about it
~a[2023-11-20 20:17:03] - a: I feel like an ideal solution (involving lvt) would be maybe a moderate lvt in combination with something else like a moderate consumption tax? I also wonder, how do we determine the value of land? Isn't a decent amount of the value of the land kind of inexorably entangled with what's on it and nearby? -Paul
[2023-11-20 20:14:53] - a: Fair, there are differences. I don't feel like the video did a good job describing the differences and instead focused on how evil it was to buy something and hold to wait for it to increase in value. Also, this might be more of a city-centric issue? I don't know. I look around, and I don't see a ton of valuable land being held onto and not sufficiently developed. -Paul
[2023-11-20 19:58:46] - paul: and, i think it's fine too. but treating them all the same (gold vs real estate vs stocks) completely ignores their differences. ~a
[2023-11-20 19:26:19] - a: It's not a risk free thing at all. The value of the property can (and often does) go down. And I don't know how common it is, but property taxes is a thing that already eats away at stuff. -Paul
[2023-11-20 19:25:12] - a: We don't have to get hung up on the definition of zero sum since I think it distracts from the specific point. I think spending money to buy something that might go up (but might also go down) in value and then just sitting on that asset and not doing anything is.... fine. I think it's fine if it's stocks, or real estate, or gold, or whatever. -Paul
[2023-11-20 17:47:59] - paul: "removal of option due to expiration" is what schwab calls it (account transferred from tdameritrade . . . account transferred from scottrade) ~a
[2023-11-20 17:41:31] - paul: you don't need to sell them to treat them as losses. no. there's a "thing" you have to do (please, no follow up questions, i've never done it, but it does sometimes happen automatically) ~a
[2023-11-20 17:40:23] - paul: "Both are kind of zero sum for individual transactions" maybe we need to define zero-sum game, because even (especially) for individual transactions, there is definitely not a zero sum game in stocks. you've defined zero sum game in a weird way that is too all-encompassing to include literally all games. ~a
[2023-11-20 17:36:56] - paul: "Don't you think it would be a huge problem is only landowners were taxed and nobody else was?" yep. but i'm not a georgist. i think a georgist would argue that becoming a landowner that doesn't do anything extra but own land shouldn't require huge sums of capital. or that more people should be more easily able to be their own landlords. or, maybe that the land is a public resource? not 100% sure though. ~a
[2023-11-20 17:02:13] - Random tangent, but does anybody here know how taxes for expired options work? Like, if I bought some calls and they expire worthless, can I treat them as capital losses? I don't need to sell them to treat them as losses, right? -Paul
[2023-11-20 16:59:23] - a: Best type of tax? I think I'm on record as a flat amount for everybody. Don't you think it would be a huge problem is only landowners were taxed and nobody else was? -Paul
[2023-11-20 16:58:22] - a: Are we not seeing a lot of loss of value in commercial real estate now? -Paul
[2023-11-20 16:57:59] - a: I guess I don't understand how land is differently zero sum from stocks. Both are kind of zero sum for individual transactions. Both are not really when you look at the whole because the pie keeps getting bigger. There's also a weird assumption that this is a no-lose scenario where these rich people are definitely going to make money. Did we not just see a real estate crash 15 years ago? -Paul
[2023-11-20 15:51:14] - i.e. certainly not capital gains . . . i think you proposed eliminating capital gains. if you had proposed eliminating capital gains in favor of lvt, i might have listened
~a[2023-11-20 15:20:39] - paul: which tax system is the least bad if not lvt? ~a
[2023-11-20 15:20:11] - paul: if you aren't getting value from the land that is proportionate to its value, you should sell it. which is why the lvt is so great: you generally will try to buy and hold land that you're going to get value from. sitting on land and ignoring it will be slightly less profitable. ~a
[2023-11-20 15:15:42] - paul: "If I sell a stock to you, then when it goes up I am harmed in about equal amounts as you are helped" false? you aren't harmed in equal amounts as i am helped at all. but also, if the market cap of all stocks were to stay at one level, it would be a zero sum game, but that's no the case: the market cap of all stocks generally changes over time. (the option market is generally zero-sum if you ignore the rest of the market). ~a
[2023-11-20 03:30:19] - a: I don't really understand how lvt is any more libertarian than other taxes. If we relied solely on lvt, would anybody who rents not owe any taxes? Feels like the impact would fall disproportionately on some people. -Paul
[2023-11-20 03:27:03] - a: Than having my property taxes go up year after year when I am not really directly benefitting from my land gaining value until I go and sell it. -Paul
[2023-11-20 03:26:32] - a: The difference between payroll / income / sales taxes is that it scales based on things I do or with ways I directly benefit. My income taxes doubling when my income doubles is an easier pill to swallow... -Paul
[2023-11-20 03:25:14] - a: I'm not sure I understand how land is zero sum but stocks aren't. If I sell a stock to you, then when it goes up I am harmed in about equal amounts as you are helped. -Paul
[2023-11-19 19:30:30] - paul: "we already have a land value tax here in VA" no, virginia does not get any money from lvt (you're thinking of fairfax county/arlington). but, even if you average out all the localities in vinginia, no, very little governments get money from lvt in virginia. property taxes (of which only apx HALF is LVT) amount to less than sales tax, and less that state income tax, less than federal income taxes. so very little lvt in virginia. ~a
[2023-11-19 19:22:17] - paul: or let me reverse it: if you don't like taxing land, which alternative tax system would you choose? which tax system is the least bad if not lvt? ~a
[2023-11-19 19:21:43] - paul: my favorite thing about lvt, is that it seems very libertarian. milton friedman is a libertarian, no? compared to the other types of taxes (again, income/payroll, sales, and business) it's the one that seems to get in the way of innovation/progression the least. if you had to pick one small tax, to fund a small government, it feels like the one best suited for that. ~a
[2023-11-19 19:15:43] - paul: your property taxes don't HAVE to go up, they just go up with the value of the underlying thing. using that logic, your payroll taxes / income taxes, your sales taxes, your business taxes, your capital gains taxes, go up every year, i'm not sure why property taxes should be any different. ~a
[2023-11-19 19:09:14] - paul: i think stocks != land in a bunch of different ways actually. a holding deed to a square meter of land and not using it, is obviously completely different from holding a share in a company and "not doing anything with it". like, what would that even mean? ~a
[2023-11-19 19:06:29] - paul: "That basically describes investing in stocks which I think is a smart and cool thing" strong disagree. unlike stocks, where it's clearly not-zero-sum-game, land is definitely much more zero-sum (not all land is equal, but we are limited to 4/3 π r² of it). ~a
[2023-11-19 04:21:48] - a: Lastly, that video seemed WAY too full of wishful thinking. Land value tax will solve depression and obesity and all of life's ills? A land value tax means all other taxes will go away? How likely does that seem? -Paul
[2023-11-19 04:20:54] - a: (2) The tax keeps going up even if my house is depreciation in value because the value of the land keeps going up, so it's like a constant force trying to price people out of areas they've lived in for years. -Paul
[2023-11-19 04:20:02] - a: I feel like we already have a land value tax here in VA (part of our property taxes are based on the value of the land) and it's one of the more annoying taxes to me because (1) it makes it seem like I don't even own the land and am just renting from the government and ... -Paul
[2023-11-19 04:18:43] - a: And then later on there was a part where they were talking about everybody having to pay money for somebody who does nothing for them and just spends the money on themselves and I would've sworn they were going to talk about the government and property tax but apparently they were just talking about landlords? -Paul
[2023-11-19 04:07:57] - a: That first part ranting about people buying things and then not doing a damned thing while their things gained value because other people worked hard.... That basically describes investing in stocks which I think is a smart and cool thing. -Paul
[2023-11-19 04:05:16] - a: I don't know nearly enough about it, and I'm certainly willing to believe that it could be really smart and effective, but that video seemed very much not aimed at somebody like me. -Paul
[2023-11-19 04:03:26] - a: I watched the video up to the point you mentioned. Interestingly enough, I think the chief economist of Redfin was recently going on about how awesome the Land Value Tax is. -Paul
[2023-11-17 23:53:27] - Asymmetrical games are rare because they’re hard to balance. But there are a number like Dead by Daylight, Evolve, etc. Most BR games are kind of asymmetric. But less by design and more because it can adapt to changing team structures based on positions and power levels. — Xpovos
[2023-11-17 15:35:05] - games where you pick a race would only technically be asymmetrical, but the one (non-boardgame) i play a lot, there are still so many similarities between the races. ~a
[2023-11-17 15:32:08] - in unrelated-news i saw an ad on youtube for an "asymmetrical [board] game" and it made me try to think of asymmetrical games that we play. (maaaybe social deduction games would count, but otoh, everybody is playing by the same rules, and everybody is just playing the hand that they're dealt). so . . . what asymmetrical board games do we play? ~a
[2023-11-17 15:00:31] - (please stop listening when they get into ubi or "citizens dividend" discussions. on the flip side: the fact that milton friedman and adam smith like this idea makes it very interesting to me) ~a
[2023-11-17 14:58:35] - i FEEL like the best solution is somewhere between where we are at NOW and . . . much lower/many fewer payroll taxes! how could anybody possibly be against a *small* shift in this direction? ~a
[2023-11-17 14:58:05] - how have we never talked about georgism/lvt? (watch at 1.5x or greater) to be clear i'm definitely not pro-georgism, but i'm surprised we haven't talked about it. (here's another link from the same guy). ~a
[2023-11-17 14:52:39] - yeah 50 was lee until like a year ago
~a[2023-11-17 14:41:28] - a: Did 50 used to be Stonewall Jackson or something? Or Lee-Jackson? I can't even remember anymore.
-Paul[2023-11-17 14:26:03] - paul: yes, good point. a school generally has a story (and . . . well a full name, printed on the front). a street name generally doesn't ever spell anything out. another "graceful" name change is what fairfax county did with 50: just remove the name. it's just 50 now. ~a
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