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[2024-05-14 21:03:48] - a: I saw something like an 80% move in one day. Another short squeeze? Geez, you would think they would learn their lesson by now. -Paul
[2024-05-14 15:20:07] - did you guys see gamestop is +240% this week? wow, it's back to its crazy 2021-highs more or less. ~a
[2024-05-09 20:34:45] - raising a kid is 18 years of prompt engineering ~a
[2024-05-08 15:32:03] - paul: this means tens of thousands of drivers in ffc are being forced or encouraged into a terrible position: one where they'll getting behind the wheel when it's unarguably unsafe. (imo, it's also why dui is so common). ~a
[2024-05-08 15:15:06] - paul: so, i'll go to this old chestnut: huge parking lots and too many drivers that shouldn't be driving are a symptom of a larger problem. regardless of his age, or driving ability, or disability, or ability to afford a car; regardless of he is infirmed or not; whether he has his drivers license revoked from the state; he basically had little choice in fair lakes on how to get to bagel joy. mostly in ffc, he doesn't have a choice. ~a
[2024-05-08 15:12:28] - paul: first thing i did was google-maps it. here's why: we don't know from the article if bagel joy's parking lot next to a high (or low) speed road or not. it's not near a road of any kind. so, with this added information only: i agree the speed of drivers on nearby roads do not matter. ~a
[2024-05-08 15:08:27] - paul: i agree. it feels like cheating. but, i'll admit if i were in that situation, i would push for . . . whatever currency. for sake of argument, usd seems like a bad example, because we're americans. would you push for the . . . rubble or yuan if you had to choose between high inflation status-quo and the rubble/yuan? (i think i would) ~a
[2024-05-08 14:05:49] - a: I don't know the specifics around dollarization and if it's moving forward or whatnot, but it feels like if the country was on its way towards hyperinflation (which seems reasonable given the inflation rates they had recently) and his admin is able to turn things around... that feels like a massive win. -Paul
[2024-05-08 14:03:17] - a: https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/virginia/driver-crashes-into-bagel-shop-days-before-its-grand-opening-bagel-joy-fairfax-county/65-ec9fd105-e7f8-487d-9a Right down the road from us! I guess I just don't get how safer roads prevent something like this? -Paul
[2024-05-07 05:43:19] - ok, agreed. 200% inflation is a bit of a problem, but didn't you mention he's switching to the usd? ~a
[2024-05-07 02:30:48] - a: 100 year historical average for the country? It's interesting because the inflation metric is a huge one for me since a large part of why Milei was elected was probably because of the 200%+ inflation Argentina was experiencing and to tame that would seem like a big win. -Paul
[2024-05-06 14:09:41] - paul: ok. i don't really care about inflation unless it's above the 100-year-historical average. but, sure. please add the end-date to the spreadsheet. ~a
[2024-05-05 23:31:40] - paul: "Aren't roads not the problem in this case?" i think roads and road design are always the problem. we design our roads to increase throughput of cars and increase speeds of cars at the expense of literally everything else (hard to cross, lack of sidewalks, too wide, lots of speeding). for short trips, more cars mean it's harder to be a pedestrian, which means more cars. ~a
[2024-05-05 19:35:21] - a: No money is fine. Do you think we can find reliable and up to date numbers for those metrics for all three countries? Feels like inflation should be one too. 3+ out of 5 is a win and 2- out of 5 is a loss? -Paul
[2024-05-05 19:19:48] - a: "i see what you did there with "by" instead of "on"" Heh, I wasn't trying to be clever. I'm okay with a bet of $100k on Dec 31, 2024. -Paul
[2024-05-05 19:19:00] - a: "we can drastically affect the number of people injured by our roads" Aren't roads not the problem in this case? Lots of things are possible, it's often the trade-offs that are the sneaky problem. -Paul
[2024-05-05 16:28:03] - ooooh, can we include infant mortality improvement? best 3 out of 4? (2 out of 4 is a push). ~a
[2024-05-04 19:11:05] - paul: we chose chile, not brazil. but sure, i'd like both countries. (a "basket" will be much harder to calculate). i'd like it to life span improvement, and gdp percapita improvement, and murder rate improvement. to win you must get 3 out of 3: otherwise a push. argentina against [average chile and brazil]? (change happens before average calc). i'd rather not put money on this one, though. what start and end date do you want? ~a
[2024-05-04 19:00:29] - paul: how about this? paul wins .0003btc (settled however) if the average price of one bitcoin on coinmarketcap is at or over $100k in usd by 2024-12-31. to count, the average price must be held over-night: we use the daily price, at midnight, eastern time. adrian wins otherwise. if coinmarketcap does not exist, a suitable alternative will be found. ~a
[2024-05-04 18:56:12] - paul: sure? i see what you did there with "by" instead of "on". it's much harder to figure out the "by", especially exactly how you define it (intraday/over-night prices are basically decided by whoever shows up and some exchanges have very few users). ~a
[2024-05-04 18:51:01] - paul: it was never about storefronts. it was about cars-into-buildings. of those 100 incidents, half of them (ish) have injuries. a good one in ten of them have a body-count. i used to date a lady who's house was on a road-corner and she had many stories of people driving up onto her lawn, etc. it seems like a big deal to me, but really points at a bigger problem: we can drastically affect the number of people injured by our roads. ~a
[2024-05-04 01:08:33] - a: And for Argentina, what metrics did we settle on? GDP growth? Inflation? Murder rate? Debt? Was it compared to Brazil or a basket of LatAm countries? -Paul
[2024-05-04 01:07:33] - a: Did we ever settle on bets for BTC by end of year or Argentina? You want to do something like 0.0003 Bitcoin on if it is over $100k in USD by December 31, 2024? -Paul
[2024-05-04 01:06:11] - a: Would a minor bumping into a column count? -Paul
[2024-05-04 01:05:46] - a: Yeah, but what exactly are those 100 incidents? It doesn't sound like they are all cars driving through store-fronts: "Our data shows that every year in the United States, vehicles crash into commercial buildings and related structures more than 100 per day" -Paul
[2024-05-02 15:18:00] - paul: https://www.storefrontsafety.org/ this reminded me of our previous conversations on this topic. 100 . . . per day? so weird. ~a
[2024-05-01 18:05:34] - a: I think its just any nexus needs energy for the overcharge. Could test it against very easy ai or something though to be 100%. -Daniel
[2024-04-29 13:48:45] - Paul: I’ve definitely had capitalization concerns. Classics include turning “Powerpoint” into “PowerPoint,” but I’ve had plenty of others where context would be important. Like typing a random sentence where I used the adjective “black,” and it converted it to the noun and then capitalized, which definitely causes problems. — Xpovos
[2024-04-26 15:13:37] - that is odd, although, i'm guessing it applies to all groups, right? if i have a bunch of larva selected or barracks selected, i'm sure it uses the first one that isn't currently doing anything. probably same for using energy of a bunch of high templars or a bunch of queens. if i hit f2, it shows me the possible actions from the first selected unit. ~a
[2024-04-24 23:10:04] - a: I honestly don't know the answer to your question, but I have noticed an oddity recently. I also have all my Nexi on one group and it seems like if I Chrono 2 or 3 things at once that it takes it all from one Nexus instead of spreading it equally. -Paul
[2024-04-24 15:24:17] - link does not specify ~a
[2024-04-24 15:24:07] - ok, i know the battery needs to be near a nexus for battery overcharge to work. but does SAID nexus need to have the energy? can a *different* nexus charge the battery? (like everybody, i have a bunch of nexuses in a group, so i wouldn't notice which is happening). in summary: unless i don't understand this aspect of overcharge, saving charges for a battery overcharge seems like a bad idea. ~a
[2024-04-24 04:38:08] - I use chrono's on probes for like the first four? five? minutes then save (forget) about it until i need it for a battery overcharge. Sometimes I chrono upgrades but mostly forget.
-Daniel[2024-04-23 00:03:15] - yeah i also chrono carriers. ~a
[2024-04-22 23:58:53] - "then it would pretty unfairly benefit me since I would lose less USD if I lost and win more USD if I won" yes, but only in the most extreme cases. if it's close, then it's still a similar result. which, is why i don't mind either way. "current transaction fees" huh interesting yeah. i say whatevs: if you set the priority low enough the fees are usually pretty reasonable, but also we usually say "settled however" etc. ~a
[2024-04-22 23:13:26] - a: Mostly upgrades, yeah, but I just remembered that if I am going Skytoss, I'll Chrono carriers since those take forever to make. -Paul
[2024-04-22 23:12:04] - a: Well, if we denominated it in BTC, then it would pretty unfairly benefit me since I would lose less USD if I lost and win more USD if I won. We could definitely make it a small bet. And you can of course always say no. Given current transaction fees, maybe it should be USD though. -Paul
[2024-04-22 17:12:23] - paul: i am annoyed by *any* capitalization, but hadn't noticed the issue you're referring to. in workplace comms i do capitalize as you're supposed to, normally. but i still wish it was an option you could turn on and off. ~a
[2024-04-22 17:10:48] - paul: my chrono boosts sound similar to yours. i'm also bad at it, but do try to use as many of them as i can. i do focus on upgrades as well, that's what i was trying to focus on. do you guys mostly use it on upgrades. ~a
[2024-04-22 17:07:48] - paul: "I guess it wouldn't make sense to make the bet denominated in Bitcoin, huh" we've done it before. denominate it in whatever you want. heck denominate it in euros, i don't care. but, please don't make it too big, i'd like it to be $20ish, or .0003btc / 300 bits, or less. ~a
[2024-04-22 16:37:40] - a: I would suggest a bet on Bitcoin hitting $100k before end of year, but I guess it wouldn't make sense to make the bet denominated in Bitcoin, huh? -Paul
[2024-04-22 16:37:12] - Also, has anybody noticed Google randomly upper-casing words lately (see the word "Bay" in my previous post.... and just now). I am typing this on a Chromebook, (that was also just upper-cased) but my android phone also will always uppercase the word "stylist" for some reason. -Paul
[2024-04-22 16:36:07] - a: I'm so bad at using my Chrono-boosts. I try to use it for probe production (once that first pylon is done). After that, if I am trying to rush an oracle, I will use it for that. Otherwise, I tend to just use it on upgrades (forge upgrades or twilight council upgrades) and sometimes my robotics Bay. -Paul
[2024-04-21 20:04:36] - paul: i've never really been bullish on bitcoin's price: i.e. we currently have a bet where i'm literally betting against its price. i'm mostly bullish on its use and bullish on its long-term survival. i'd def bet against $100k by the end of the year. ~a
[2024-04-21 20:02:36] - paul: it does mention it in the thread. or at least it suggests a possible reason: it's the americans themselves. americans speed and americans use their phones while driving. and at higher rates than canada. (my favorite solution isn't negated by this, of course: please help build places where people have the choice to not use their car as the only way to get to work/school/fun/grocery-store/etc). ~a
[2024-04-21 19:47:43] - where and how, do you guys spend your chrono-boosts? (aside from the first few minutes, or when something unanticipated comes up). ~a
[2024-04-21 19:18:55] - a: You bullish on BTC over the coming months? I think there a lot of the halving is already priced in, but it still feels like there's a lot of upside given the approval of ETFs and the drop in supply increase. Maybe we'll see $100k by the end of the year? -Paul
[2024-04-21 19:17:38] - a: I skimmed the thread, but does it address the unique reason America is bad with pedestrian deaths? Is it something with policy and lack of separating cyclists / pedestrians from cars? -Paul
[2024-04-21 19:11:21] - Daniel: I definitely need to be smarter with choosing my upgrades. I still kind of mindlessly go for both attack and armor at the same time as if they are both equally important. I do tend to prioritize attack upgrades for Skytoss since I typically only have one cyber core and I know attack upgrades are important for carriers. -Paul
[2024-04-21 19:09:58] - a: I usually go double evolution chambers (for Zerg ground upgrades) and forges (for Protoss ground upgrades), but never think to go double cyber core for Skytoss. I should consider that going forward. -Paul
[2024-04-19 13:52:42] - 11 hours left! this happens once every four years. last halving was in 2020. ~a
[2024-04-19 13:35:40] - financial times article (link to twitter thread because paywall) about how american roads are more deadly for pedestrians *compared* to other developed nations. though according to the article it's not because of vehicle size and it's not because of vehicle trip lengths. ~a
[2024-04-18 19:37:43] - Same thing on the flip side that the carrier with upgrades probably has interceptors that are like 100% better than the non upgraded since they start with such small damage so its a bigger percentage increase vs other units. -Daniel
[2024-04-18 17:48:33] - Partly that is because armor upgrades matter so much against carriers because they rely on lots of small hits that don't do much damage. So with armor you make all those small hits do almost nothing. Its why with corrupters against carriers you always go armor upgrades first. -Daniel
[2024-04-18 13:49:03] - when i go skytoss i always build a second cyber core (usually mid-game though, if i'm swimming in minerals). when i go . . . landtoss(?) i usually build a second forge. same deal, when i'm short on gas but not short on minerals. ~a
[2024-04-17 16:42:33] - https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-hFAPhGyBkU I got to focus on my upgrades more... -Paul
[2024-04-16 12:45:29] - paul: we can settle whatever you want to settle. I'm not confident I'll win the arkk bet for sure, but also I recognize that your odds are unavailable. I feel the same way about the Bitcoin bet in the other direction, but I want to let that one ride until the ending too. ~a
[2024-04-15 02:09:10] - mig: That's..... bizarre. -Paul
[2024-04-09 00:23:09] - “There is nothing but malicious intent in these eyes. I hate it. I hate him. Sorry Hokies fans, but your mascot is a terrifying hellscape.“
[2024-04-09 00:21:20] - https://www.sbnation.com/2019/11/25/20982016/pardoning-of-turkeys-hokie-bird-white-house-video - mig
[2024-04-09 00:20:40] - a: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/HokieBird In November 2019 the United States government formally recognized the HokieBird as the "supreme leader and god of all turkeys." - mig
[2024-04-08 16:44:14] - a:Vote on SC2? -Daniel
[2024-04-03 06:14:21] - a: Luckily, my bitcoin bet with you might wipe out those losses and then some. -Paul
[2024-04-03 06:14:06] - a: I need to square some wagers with you! I owe you $20 for beating me in the stock market challenge (and can I just settle my ARKK bet now too?
) -Paul[2024-04-02 15:18:47] - verbose. ~a
[2024-04-02 12:41:55] - virtue. signaled. - mig
[2024-03-31 15:23:26] - "this was an immensely powerful awakening for me. it filled me with sadness. i realized that we had spent decades, if not centuries, being obsessed with looking away, with looking outside. i did my share in popularizing the idea that space was the final frontier. but i had to get to space to understand that earth is and will stay our only home. and that we have been ravaging it, relentlessly, making it uninhabitable." ~a
[2024-03-29 22:23:43] - mig: "Did Trump do *something* illegal? Probably" really, this is as far as you can go? that he maybe didn't do anything illegal at all? you listened to the georgia tapes, i assume? ~a
[2024-03-29 15:25:19] - And while it’s irrelevant towards the merits of the case there’s still issues of prosecutorial misconduct that could remover her from the case to sort out. - mig
[2024-03-29 15:23:00] - I’m not a fan if how prosecutors apply RICO, especially with how broadly this specific prosecutor has broadly applied RICO charges against past defendants. - mig
[2024-03-29 15:21:37] - a: the ga case is … mixed? Did Trump do *something* illegal? Probably. Is RICO an appropriate charge for his crimes? I’m less sure about that one. - mig
[2024-03-28 15:20:27] - paul/mig: sometimes you guys say that people are weaponizing the judiciary against trump. i don't agree. at all. but for the sake of argument, do you feel that way about the georgia case? do you think the georgia case is someone weaponizing the courts against trump? do you think trump did some super illegal shit in the georgia elections and should go down for it? both maybe? ~a
[2024-03-27 20:14:31] - according to "tom sherwood" (that guy you heard on "kojo nnamdi"'s show, and other shows, on npr) the stadium won't be going into potomac yard. the deal is off. ~a
[2024-03-26 19:03:04] - I mean once its not supported gravity goes to work real quick but still crazy to watch. -Daniel
[2024-03-26 19:02:45] - -Daniel
[2024-03-26 19:02:42] - a: The footage of the bridge going down is crazy in how fast it goes
[2024-03-26 16:27:25] - a ship hit a major bridge in baltimore 6 still missing. i think that implies at least a few people on the bridge were saved (people previously considered lost). ~a
[2024-03-26 14:54:46] - this is real DJT (i.e. trump's initials) are a real ticker symbol, for a real holding company (spac, if you know about those) trading today. it has a 2b market cap. 2 BILLION. (it is merging with truth social, so it should probably be worth . . . something, but not 2b). ~a
[2024-03-25 20:24:40] - paul: what are the odds that the bitcoin price will be $69k on april 20th (420) the same day of the block reward halving? ~a
[2024-03-12 15:46:08] - we only watched it recently, but One Life was really good. - mig
[2024-03-12 13:31:50] - Some more I haven't seen but I want to: Boy and the Heron; John Wick Chapter 4; Zone of Interest; Barbie (as mig noted); Are You There God, It's Me, Margaret; TMNT Mutant Mayhem. 2023 was a good year for movies!! Aside, also see Dune Part 2 (and part 1 if you haven't). It's good. -- Xpovos
[2024-03-12 13:26:50] - a: I haven't seen Killers of the Flower Moon yet, but I really want to. I think you should, too. Other big movies from 2023: Oppenheimer. Worth watching. "Good, not great" was my review. D&D: Honor Among Thieves. Fun. Better than expected. D&D meets Avengers. Across the Spiderverse. Excellent. Yes. Godzilla Minus One. Best Godzilla movie to-date. Yes. Suzume Worth it. -- Xpovos
[2024-03-11 20:37:33] - i heard it was good. Barbie was very good. - mig
[2024-03-11 17:53:04] - killers of the flower moon . . . should i watch it? was it any good? what blockbusters from 2023 should i watch? ~a
[2024-03-04 21:05:36] - daniel: yeah . . . i think so. i'm going on travel this week and next week i'm on vacation. the week of the 18th will be MUCH more quiet. ~a
[2024-03-04 17:26:32] - a: You still out on SC2 for time being? -Daniel
[2024-03-04 16:40:53] - https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/03/04/politics/trump-supreme-court-colorado-14th-amendment/index.html scotus rules 9-0 that individual states cannot unilaterally remove Trump from the ballot. - mig
[2024-03-02 14:56:57] - paul: id replace debt with life expectancy. people are affected by debt, but not as directly as they are affected by life expectancy. ~a
[2024-03-02 14:49:46] - a: So GDP, crime levels, and debt? Would probably be ideal to compare to a basket of all South American countries if we could. What's a reliable source of info? Looks like wikipedia has nothing past 2022... -Paul
[2024-02-27 17:59:29] - https://www.ajc.com/politics/judge-wades-law-partner-must-testify-about-relationship-with-willis/FQLTCWX75JBG7AX3O4GVWEMFHE/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=socia it looks like the georgia case is going to go way off the rails too. - mig
[2024-02-26 15:10:33] - a: The hush money case also seemed "trumped up" (sorry for the pun). Aren't the majority of the 34 counts mostly just because he made multiple payments? Also, I didn't see it listed, but the civil defamation case seemed somewhat flimsy as well. -Paul
[2024-02-26 15:07:09] - a: https://projects.apnews.com/features/2023/trump-investigations-civil-criminal-tracker/index.html Going based on these: The New York civil fraud case seems pretty novel considering they weren't able to find a defendant who claimed they were harmed and I believe the governor even had to assure other people that this didn't signal a bigger push into investigating businesses. -Paul
[2024-02-25 21:49:26] - https://i.redd.it/k5thmwyforkc1.jpeg
~a[2024-02-25 21:42:41] - paul: "i'd like some crime statistics included too. chile's gdp percapita is 15-20k usd/pp, and argentina gdp percapita is 10k-15k usd/pp. so, success would be passing chile's gdp percapita? for inflation, they're looking at using the usd, right? so we probably can't use that. for crime, their murder rate is 4.6 (per 100k). anything at 4.6 or lower would be success imo" we talked some more about adding other s. american countries. ~a
[2024-02-25 21:32:33] - paul: "pretty intense blinders on to not see that Biden is mentally not all there" no disagreement here. by far he's been the worst liberal president in my lifetime. ~a
[2024-02-25 21:31:26] - paul: "fully half of them are things that seem like they wouldn't be brought up against anybody not named Donald Trump" this is the only part of your statement i found problem with. i agree with the rest. but you have no evidence this is true, and i don't believe it's true. which half? in at least two of his cases co-conspirators people have pleaded guilty or been convicted. ~a
[2024-02-25 04:27:01] - a: Did we ever figure out which metrics we wanted to use to determine if Milei was having a positive impact on Argentina? GDP? What else? -Paul
[2024-02-22 18:38:47] - https://thehill.com/homenews/4461415-more-than-85-percent-think-biden-is-too-old-to-serve-following-hur-report-poll/ 86% of Americans think Biden is too old. That's a lot! It's hard to get 86% of Americans to agree on anything. I think I saw something saying only 82% of Americans think the Earth is round and not flat. -Paul
[2024-02-22 18:37:02] - a: "he's pretty liberal, he's just good at hiding it some days" No issue with him being liberal, but I appreciate it when he's not just mindlessly carrying water for one side and can at least appreciate hypocrisy and when his own side is wrong about something. I feel like you have to have some pretty intense blinders on to not see that Biden is mentally not all there. -Paul
[2024-02-22 18:35:30] - a: And as previously mentioned, even the liberal SCOTUS justices seem skeptical of the idea of kicking him off the ballot. -Paul
[2024-02-22 18:35:05] - a: "is that what has happened here?" It feels like it? You'll get no argument from me that Trump is corrupt and guilty of plenty of stuff, but not only is the number of lawsuits against an ex-president who is running again pretty unprecedented, but fully half of them are things that seem like they wouldn't be brought up against anybody not named Donald Trump. -Paul
[2024-02-17 08:30:19] - paul: i liked it too! don't let jon trick you, though. he's pretty liberal, he's just good at hiding it some days
~a[2024-02-17 08:29:15] - paul: "one party fighting the other party with every single legal tool allowed to them" is that what has happened here? the many grand juries that handed down the indictments and the many juries that convicted him and convicted his (now) literal crime family are typically without a party. ~a
[2024-02-15 18:07:39] - https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1757253512625586177 I assume everybody saw this? I thought this was Jon Stewart at his best: Legitimately funny and not just smirking at the TV when politicians say stupid things. Hitting both sides. Even somewhat non-political in his talk about November 6th is nothing to sneeze at and how we can't just overly focus on election day. -Paul
[2024-02-15 18:05:12] - a: It's like the old "Congress isn't going to vote on Garland which they are legally allowed to do but sets a bad precedent". -Paul
[2024-02-15 18:04:41] - a: Sure. I'm not necessarily proposing anything different. I just am not a huge fan of the recent trend of one party fighting the other party with every single legal tool allowed to them. Presidents shouldn't be above the law... but it's also suspicious to see the leading opposition candidate hit with a ton of lawsuits (half of which seem iffy). It's also seems anti-democratic to try to kick the leading opp. candidate off the ballot. -Paul
[2024-02-14 16:37:57] - paul: it's working like it should though. right? there are laws. when the laws are broken, the courts get involved. when the local courts do something dumb, the higher courts get involved. would you propose a different system where just the federal government does everything? i'm not sure you're proposing a system you actually want. worded differently: what do you *actually* propose because i'm not sure i know what it is. ~a
[2024-02-14 15:11:16] - Daniel: "IMO states should be able to decide who goes on or not", "I also don't think it would be that different than an electoral map" I think I agree with both of these, but I also think this would just pour gasoline on the partisanship and high stakes over the purple states. Instead of wondering who is going to win Ohio or Pennslyvania.... we wonder if the opposing candidate is going to even be on the ballot. -Paul
[2024-02-14 03:37:28] - oof, woops. work has been crazy lately, sorry, guys. ~a
[2024-02-14 02:24:36] - a: We're playing tonight! -Daniel
[2024-02-13 19:57:45] - if you thought i was bad with email before, now when i'm at work, or connected to my work vpn, i can't access my personal email.
i am free any day but wednesday. ~a[2024-02-13 16:05:04] - a: any votes on SC2 night? -Daniel
[2024-02-13 01:40:24] - I guess it would enforce more partisanship since you wouldn't really be able to vote split party tickets anymore if suddenly states were just removing candidates they didn't like. -Daniel
[2024-02-13 01:39:33] - I'd have to check but how many states with their state house controlled by one party ended up going for the other party in the electoral college? GA? NV maybe? or AZ? I guess those would have been enough to swing an election so its still 'important' but also only effecting three states out of the total makes it not as crazy. -Daniel
[2024-02-13 01:38:06] - Yeah I think I mostly agree with Miguel's statement there. IMO states should be able to decide who goes on or not cause like the age thing we already have them with the power to do so. And while I'm not sure that its a good look for subjective reasons (ie insurrection without conviction) I also don't think it would be that different than an electoral map. -Daniel
[2024-02-13 00:56:25] - I mean I think it's basically they don't seem as a whole to find the whole booting Trump off the ballot thing palatable, but also seem to want to make a narrow ruling as possible as generally is there wont. Which means looking for technicalities which, they might be right on the precise technicality even if it looks absurd on its face. - mig
[2024-02-12 20:19:51] - a: "can you describe what this is? other than" Nope. Although I would phrase it more like: "9 individuals across the ideological spectrum that are considered some of the top legal minds that this country has produced thinks so while only 3 people (none of which went to law school) don't quite see it"
-Paul[2024-02-12 17:26:15] - paul: "apparently there's good legal reason to think that the President is" can you describe what this is? other than "the scotus says so", i'm not sure i follow this logic. i.e. all three of us agree the logic seems unsound, right? ~a
[2024-02-12 15:45:20] - a: Yeah, I don't exactly know why President would b excluded, but apparently there's good legal reason to think that the President is. -Paul
[2024-02-10 09:04:30] - I'll agree that the whole "doesn't apply to the president" argument seems batshit crazy to me, but the fact that even the liberal wing is considering it makes it seem the scotus as a whole seems uninterested in trying to entertain disqualifying Trump from the ballot. - mig
[2024-02-10 09:02:00] - a: "Notably, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, a Joe Biden nominee, said that the 14th Amendment provision did not include the word “president,” even though it specifically listed other officials who would be covered, such as members of Congress. That is a central argument Trump’s attorneys have raised in the case. “They were listing people that were barred and ‘president’ is not there,” Jackson said." - mig
[2024-02-10 06:40:30] - i have no idea what the recusal rules are, but they must be crazy. ~a
[2024-02-10 04:33:56] - if the "office of president" isn't an office under the united states, i guess i don't know what words mean. ~a
[2024-02-10 04:30:13] - paul: "I think I also heard that the terminology banning insurrectionists from holding office listed a bunch of positions.... except the presidency" just read it, it's mostly one sentence. the constitution constantly refers to the president as the "office of president". to say the president isn't an officer of the united states is illogical. ~a
[2024-02-09 20:37:13] - a: https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/02/supreme-court-appears-unlikely-to-kick-trump-off-colorado-ballot/ A trial court agreed that Trump had engaged in insurrection, but it nonetheless declined to remove him from the ballot because it concluded that the presidency is not an “office … under the United States,” and the president is not an “officer of the United States.” -Paul
[2024-02-09 20:35:11] - a: I think I also heard that the terminology banning insurrectionists from holding office listed a bunch of positions.... except the presidency. -Paul
[2024-02-09 18:35:16] - there’s precedents it appears both ways. Those precedents are all also well over 150 years old so maybe they are worth reevaluating. - mig
[2024-02-09 18:33:46] - a: “ A 19th century case, In Re. Griffin , involved a defendant’s challenge to a criminal conviction based on the fact that the judge in the case had fought for the Confederacy. Chief Justice Salmon Chase, who was writing for an appeals court, ruled in 1869 that the “insurrectionist ban” could not be enforced against the judge unless Congress first passed a law.” - mig
[2024-02-09 17:29:27] - mig/paul: the insurrectionist argument is special, right? because there is precedence for being rejected from a ballot for being an insurrectionist *absent* a conviction. that's correct? ~a
[2024-02-09 17:04:36] - And these concerns are being brought by all the justices, not just the ones that are supposedly "trump aligned". - mig
[2024-02-09 16:59:01] - This is probably why the justices are harping on either an act of congress barring him from running or a conviction under the federal insurrection statute. That makes his eligibility far more concrete. - mig
[2024-02-09 16:56:45] - a: well states have a latitude but I don't think they can unilaterally disqualify/allow someone on the presidential ballot if it came to an issue of age (i.e. they can't say someone > 35 is ineligible because of their age). While that example is more concrete, the issue here is absent a conviction of the federal insurrection statute is going to be subjective, as we've seen states rule and not rule that Trump is an insurrectionist. - mig
[2024-02-09 16:07:17] - I won't claim.... I know how to speak. -Paul
[2024-02-09 15:59:31] - I won't admit to knowing the legal specifics, but this just seems like a bad move towards increased partisanship and less objective law following. -Paul
[2024-02-09 15:58:57] - a: As with so many things with Trump, this seems like a bit of a precedent thing. Even if maybe states should run their own elections, do we want to move towards a precedent where states start flatly refusing to allow major party candidates on the ballot? If this holds, do we really think Texas won't decide Biden shouldn't be on the ballot because he's mentally unfit? -Paul
[2024-02-09 15:29:24] - mig: "Some states unilaterally deciding eligibility on a nationwide office" i thought that's how elections worked, period. the states run 100% of the elections. as long as their laws aren't unconstitutional, and nobody is breaking said laws, i think it's entirely in their "court". ~a
[2024-02-09 14:08:31] - I also think the issues with doing this on a state by state basis os a big one. Some states unilaterally deciding eligibility on a nationwide office, using different processes (colorado was by the courts, maine was through an election official) seems problematic. - mig
[2024-02-09 12:44:38] - I'm a little surprised the "does the 14th amendment apply to the president?" is being taken seriously even by the liberal justices. It did seem like a desperation argument at the time but I guess it did have some merit strangely enough. - mig
[2024-02-09 03:15:06] - “ Kavanaugh noted there was a federal statute for insurrection and that Trump had not been charged with itz” - mig
[2024-02-08 22:10:33] - and "Even some members of the court’s liberal wing posed difficult questions to the lawyers opposed to Trump" -Paul
[2024-02-08 22:10:29] - https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/takeaways-supreme-court-trump-ballot/index.html Anybody else think these two sentences right next to each other in the article is weird? "conservative justices peppered the lawyers representing Trump’s challengers with a series of questions that suggested they were seeking a way to side with the former president"... -Paul
[2024-02-08 22:06:50] - https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/08/politics/white-house-special-counsels-report-response/index.html This is NOT a flattering defense of Biden. Basically saying: "Yeah, he totally kept classified documents, but a jury would like take pity on him because he clearly doesn't remember where he is or when it is so a conviction would be tough" -Paul
[2024-02-08 22:05:50] - a: Hmmmm. I'll take your word for it, but I seem to remember him just kind of casually mentioning it might be tricky but then moving forward as if it was an easy problem to solve. I mean, the whole point of that kind of taxation scheme is that it's straightforward to come up with a way to value land by itself that everybody can agree on. -Paul
[2024-02-06 20:24:11] - xpovos: love it. great article, thanks. ~a
[2024-02-06 20:22:30] - paul: that is right, you do not remember: he actually addresses that in the video, and recognizes that it's a hard problem. you know, a hard problem that apparently we suck at for golf courses. he was snarky when he said that it could be the new job of all the landlords that will have a harder time keeping their current job. ~a
[2024-02-06 18:20:48] - a: "how do we collectively decide how much property is worth when we're deciding how much to tax it?" I'm not trying to be snarky, I legit don't remember, but didn't you share a video with me that was all about how easy it is to determine how much land is worth regardless of what is built on it? -Paul
[2024-02-06 11:57:01] - This article is not my original source? But it’ll do. I was also amused that this site had the very first “don’t steal my shit for AI training,” pop up I’ve ever seen. https://www.taxnotes.com/featured-analysis/perfectly-logical-illogic-golf-course-tax-breaks/2023/07/13/7gyzd — Xpovos
[2024-02-06 01:45:07] - Golf courses are quite famously under-taxed. It’s not just that one. — Xpovos
[2024-02-05 18:07:06] - the big golf course in my area near 395 is assessed at $115m, but if you were to sell that land, i think you'd probably get much closer to a billion for that land. what morons decided it was worth $115m? ($115m is a measly $10/sqft for this high quality coveted land. much land in the county gets assessed closer to $50/sqft to $150/sqft!) ~a
[2024-02-05 18:01:26] - how do we collectively decide how much property is worth when we're deciding how much to tax it? for a sfh, it seems pretty easy honestly: find a bunch of houses for sale that are in a similar area, with a similar size, and do some pretty easy compensations for the differences. but, like, how about a golf course? ~a
[2024-02-05 03:28:52] - xpovos: try to put a non-sfh in pretty much anywhere in arlington or ffc, you'll run into nimby's. the new footpath they added in 2023 to 66 (the 66 parallel trail): they tried to put the soundwall on the other side of the path and nimby's convinced vdot to build a fundamentally *terrible* path. ~a
[2024-02-05 03:26:58] - a: Interesting. Meanwhile the pro-property NIMBY is upset because of the externality to their property. Complicated. Thank you .-- Xpovos
[2024-02-05 03:25:04] - xpovos: i stole it from twitter, so i don't take credit for the logic or "path". but, most nimby's think you shouldn't be allowed to use your property to do what you want with it. for instance, they tore down a house near me and put in a mansion that totally doesn't fit with the neighborhood (imo). 100% allowed and accepted: but if it had been a (equally or even smaller sized) duplex, nimby's would have lost their fucking minds. ~a
[2024-02-05 00:56:21] - title: I'd like to know more. How is that a logical conclusion? I love property rights and hate NIMBYs, but I don't see the path. -- Xpovos
[2024-02-01 15:25:55] - mig: so . . . it's worse than not doing it? yeah, 100% agreed then. ~a
[2024-02-01 14:16:58] - a: worse as in his not challenging obama feels much worse becuase he's willing to criticize democrats just not to their face (or at least Obama's) where it could have more impact. - mig
[2024-01-31 18:10:39] - mig: "worse". what is worse than what? i agree not talking truth to power is bad. but, if you're saying what stewart did is worse than people trying to expand the patriot act, i'm not sure i follow the logic. ~a
[2024-01-31 16:46:19] - a: i dunno it feels worse. What good is speaking truth to power from afar in safety when you won’t do it when power is literally standing next to you. - mig
[2024-01-31 15:45:53] - a: Oh, you didn't know about that? Yeah, Tucker apparently has gone through quite an evolution politically. I think he used to be a somewhat thoughtful almost libertarianish figure. -Paul
[2024-01-31 15:38:41] - tucker carlson in 2004?! i'm guessing tucker carlson was much less of a controversial figure in 2004. fuck, maybe he's so fucked today partly because of this history. ~a
[2024-01-31 15:14:29] - a: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Stewart%27s_2004_appearance_on_Crossfire -Paul
[2024-01-30 17:05:16] - mig/paul: it's not terribly hard to roast tucker carlson, but i 100% agree the democrats should not have expanded the patriot act. i'm glad he's taking them to task for that, even if he did let obama off. ~a
[2024-01-30 16:52:21] - what's the crossfire thing? ~a
[2024-01-30 15:30:34] - Yeah, my issue with Jon Stewart is how he wanted to "just" be a comedian when the purpose suited him but also wanted to play a journalist when it suited him. I know people love the Crossfire thing and how he "masterfully roasted Tucker", but I kind of thought Jon Steward came off looking bad there. -Paul
[2024-01-30 13:33:31] - Jon Stewart is such a fucking tool. - mig
[2024-01-30 13:33:22] - I think I enjoyed the daily show until the one episode where Stewart goes off on Democrats supporting extending the patriot act (comparing the patriot act to the "one ring"), then not too long after he has Obama on the show for an interview and did not even challenge him even fucking once on the issue. And I'm contrasting this with his interview with Chris Christie, where while cordial, is still contentious, and after that my stance is ...
[2024-01-29 17:35:52] - paul: also, another super common combination is the cargo bike + ebike = cargo ebike. benefits of both the bike and the car all rolled into one. the tweet i showed was an e-cargo. so, probably much less than 950 calories, in that case. ~a
[2024-01-29 17:31:11] - paul: 55 minutes each way? 950 calories, if the snow was plowed. ~a
[2024-01-29 17:05:14] - a: Heh, at first I thought 900,000 calories was your estimate of how many I would burn riding a bike to and from with that much load. -Paul
[2024-01-29 16:14:38] - paul: 900,000 calories? ha. yes, i agree a car or truck will generally be required for 900,000 calories of cookies
(150*7*12*68). i think most people can car-share the once in a year they have to move a couch, or once in a lifetime they have to transport their immobile pregnant grandma, or almost a million calories in cookies. ~a[2024-01-29 16:04:55] - a: For various reasons, I actually did our girl scout cookie pick up this year. 68 cases barely fit in the minivan with the third row folded down. I'm sure I could've biked to wolf trap and back with some trailer to do it in 30 degree weather, but I'm glad I had my car then. -Paul
[2024-01-29 16:03:44] - a: Yeah, I've seen some people talk about Jon Stewart as part of the origin of a problem where liberals got smug thinking all republicans were idiots and they could just ruthlessly dunk on them over and over to win support and 15+ years of that is now biting them in the ass. I don't know if I agree with that. I have my own criticisms of Jon Stewart, but I fairly enjoyed TDS and old-school Colbert Report. -Paul
[2024-01-26 16:11:23] - paul: i saw this and thought of you
girl scout cookies, yay. ~a[2024-01-25 21:48:58] - paul: "has me feeling very nostalgic", yup. i don't even really care about ron paul but man, that's some good tv. ~a
[2024-01-25 20:43:21] - https://twitter.com/kmele/status/1750387078448492718 Speaking of Jon Stewart, this was a good one. If I recall, I think Ron Paul ultimately was even declared the winner of the Iowa straw poll when all was said and done. -Paul
[2024-01-25 17:53:03] - true, but still too old. one article pointed out he was a boomer, heh. ~a
[2024-01-25 16:19:47] - a: Not as old as Trump or Biden. -Paul
[2024-01-24 19:25:12] - lol, wow no way. he's too old.
~a[2024-01-24 19:24:57] - paul: south america in general is totally fine with me. we might need to be more specific about that though. ~a
[2024-01-24 17:38:14] - https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/24/entertainment/jon-stewart-daily-show/index.html Jon Stewart is returning to the Daily Show. -Paul
[2024-01-24 17:33:11] - ignore the filename, this data is from 2021 very fun, yay washington dc! btw, i pretty sure "arlington" here is actually "arlington, texas", but i'm totally guessing. ~a
[2024-01-24 15:05:02] - a: Maybe add in Mexico as well, since it is often lumped in with South America as part of Latin America. -Paul
[2024-01-24 14:48:06] - a: I do wonder if Jan 6th is going to stick around as long as 9-11. It's used just not often enough to where it takes me half a second to remember what it refers to if it's mentioned without context. -Paul
[2024-01-24 14:46:58] - a: I wonder if we can just do South America in general. Is there some ranking of where countries stand relative to their continental neighbors? -Paul
[2024-01-24 01:59:02] - paul: brazil is the other country. that's my proposal. ~a
[2024-01-23 21:24:50] - 4th of july, april 1st, 4-20, cinco de mayo, september 11th, january 6th, we keep getting more dates like these. will we ever run out?
a comprehensive list ~a[2024-01-23 19:49:13] - paul: yes (or vice versa) feel free to pick a second country. ~a
[2024-01-23 19:48:41] - a: Isn't there a danger that Chile shits the bed and makes Argentina look good by comparison even though it also sucks? -Paul
[2024-01-23 19:00:43] - paul: to triple dip on chile: their murder rate is also 4.6/100k per year. ~a
[2024-01-23 18:58:56] - paul: "Is there any way we can measure lifespan?" yeah, sure. you'd want to compare it to another nearby similar country that has a similar lifespan. i hate to pick the same country but chile RECENTLY passed argentina for life span. (in 1980 argentina's lifespan > chile's lifespan. in 2024 chile's lifespan > argentina's lifespan). for success, i think we'd want that trend to go back: argentina's lifespan > chile's lifespan. ~a
[2024-01-23 18:54:54] - paul: "Yes. Some professions make less than they 'should' and some professions get creatively destroyed" these are not failures imo. failures are when markets are not voluntary. or when they trade in things that are less than ideal (illegal things, exploitative things, forced things, things that cause excessive death and things that cause excessive suffering). ~a
[2024-01-23 18:54:46] - a: Is there any way we can measure lifespan? Probably not. -Paul
[2024-01-23 18:53:10] - a: That car crash is about a mile from our Centro Great Clips location. -Paul
[2024-01-23 18:52:58] - paul: yes. i'd like some crime statistics included too. chile's gdp percapita is 15-20k usd/pp, and argentina gdp percapita is 10k-15k usd/pp. so, success would be passing chile's gdp percapita? for inflation, they're looking at using the usd, right? so we probably can't use that. for crime, their murder rate is 4.6 (per 100k). anything at 4.6 or lower would be success imo. ~a
[2024-01-23 18:50:12] - a: The Uvalde thing is such a heartbreaking scenario. I've spent a fair amount of time wondering what I would've done if I was a parent showing up there and the police were preventing me from going in. I probably would've trusted the authorities to be on top of what was best.... and I would've been wrong. -Paul
[2024-01-23 18:48:43] - a: In terms of literally buying the idea of market failures not existing.... I think it's going to boil down to the definition of what a "failure" is nd we'll probably quickly bogged down into semantics. Does a free market often lead to situations that many people see as less than ideal? Yes. Some professions make less than they "should" and some professions get creatively destroyed. -Paul
[2024-01-23 18:46:11] - a: Sorry, I let my end of this drop. What kind of success metrics would you want to use? I would assume some combination of inflation dropping and GDP growth? -Paul
[2024-01-23 18:19:07] - mig: just because they're failing, just because you don't like them, means, what exactly? they aren't true markets? or that they aren't failing? i'm not sure how to address the disingenuous or good/bad faith part of your argument. do you not trust that i strongly believe what i say? i'm not sure whether to be offended. should i be offended? ~a
[2024-01-23 18:19:03] - mig: huge (dark) markets dealing in trafficking humans, mostly women and girls also happens all day every day. neither absurd, since they happen every day, nor extreme since they happen millions of times per year. yes, just dirty markets doing dirty things. ~a
[2024-01-23 18:18:54] - mig: you call them absurd, but huge markets dealing in illegal goods happens all day every day, right? something close to 100% of our nation's gold reserves came from companies that bought illegally mined gold: by mixing mercury with ground-water. what makes this an absurd extreme?! ~a
[2024-01-22 23:29:53] - a: we believe in property rights in general (stealing bad) and humans have rights (slavery bad), right? It feels disingenuous or bad faith to go instantly to these absurd extremes. - mig
[2024-01-22 17:54:53] - from the comments "feels like at least the 4th #carintobuilding in the dmv in the past week" ~a
[2024-01-22 17:53:32] - paul: since we talked about this recently, this was today, walking distance of my work (and right next to my wife's gym). ~a
[2024-01-21 13:58:46] - tallest flagpole height vs how free that country is. i assume the x-dimension is from this, or something like it ~a
[2024-01-19 15:30:37] - on top of all of that, calling a market "voluntary" is not enough. if only wishing made it so. you have to actually confirm a market is voluntary or the market has failed. ~a
[2024-01-19 15:26:39] - there's also voluntarily exchanging spoils from illegal behavior: like, poachers freely exchanging their elephant tusks. or exchanging products that were stolen. or exchanging products produced by child labor or forced labor or rainforest deforestation. to completely ignore fraud, waste, and abuse is ignorant in my opinion. there is no oxymoron: market failures are real. ~a
[2024-01-19 15:26:36] - "the market is a mechanism for social cooperation, where you voluntarily exchange ownership rights" mig, is a "slave trade" a voluntary exchange of ownership rights? or exchanging things voluntarily with people who have been tricked into that exchange? seniors will very often hastily buy gift cards because they think their grandson is in trouble. ~a
[2024-01-19 14:43:57] - a: sure? Probably since we probably don't agree on what constitutes a "market failure". - mig
[2024-01-19 13:52:36] - mig: with that full context, i still feel like his quote is dumb. there are still market failures, with that full context. i can come up with a few examples if you'd like. ~a
[2024-01-19 03:20:36] - https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/01/supreme-court-likely-to-discard-chevron/ pretty big sctous case in terms of potential impact. - mig
[2024-01-18 23:37:40] - "The market is not a mere graph describing a curve of supply and demand. The market is a mechanism for social cooperation, where you voluntarily exchange ownership rights. Therefore based on this definition, talking about a market failure is an oxymoron. There are no market failures." - mig
[2024-01-18 23:37:23] - a: in the full context of what he said kind of. - mig
[2024-01-18 19:58:39] - paul: "market failures do not exist". do you buy his words literally? ~a
[2024-01-18 19:10:42] - new report out. i feel like it's nothing we didn't already get from the media at the time. is there anybody that want's to argue the other side of this? i guess if it were me showing up on scene, it'd definitely be one of those huge between a rock and a hard place situations to say the least. ~a
[2024-01-18 18:43:22] - paul: no. but mostly because 1. i've never been super anti-libertarian and 2. i'm not sure if milei is a libertarian or an anarcho-capitalist. to consider argentina's success or failure though, we should define success or failure NOW. so as we don't get bogged down in what was is success or failure after the fact, right? i'm definitely not a fan of milei's thoughts on abortion. or public services. but, also he seems a bit crazy. ~a
[2024-01-18 18:36:05] - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1747865288429682866 We haven't talked much about Milei here. I feel like there might not be a more libertarian world leader out there right now, and he has taken over a country which is pretty undeniably in distress. If he enacts libertarian policies and Argentina has a turnaround, would that change anybody's ideas here? -Paul
[2024-01-17 21:45:21] - your 2023 metro report (link is in the image) ~a
[2024-01-17 05:52:03] - yeah, makes sense to me. ~a
[2024-01-16 23:44:24] - a: Fair - I think there will always be some baseline but yeah for others I could see things that influence the decision. Without evidence or proof my hypothesis would be that the numbers are driven more by situations and context of what their home countries is like. Or that those outweigh US policies at least. -Daniel
[2024-01-16 19:24:42] - daniel: "regardless of any security measures they will make the attempt" this fails to recognize the major change in 2021, though, right? the graph i posted seemed to have a 4-5x change in the number of apprehensions. no? if regardless of any security measures, people will make the attempt, then why-for do we see so many more coming in 2021 than we did in (say) 2014 or 2018? it's not a small change. ~a
[2024-01-16 18:44:03] - I'd rather live in US than any other country south of it? I think for a lot of people that is true as well and is true enough that regardless of any security measures they will make the attempt. If you can get your kids in here vs somewhere else people are willing to risk a lot (including death) for that shot. -Daniel
[2024-01-12 15:36:40] - covid? my guess anyways. i'd guess 80% of those changes are covid. mexico doesn't have the same benefits we have: covid *shutdowns* hit mexico worse than the united states. the other 20% is probably a perception that biden's administration wouldn't be as rough (and to be fair, if we're JUST talking about relative to trump's administration, it is correct, i'm sure). ~a
[2024-01-12 15:33:02] - a: I wonder why that is. Is America (despite our best efforts) still a shining beacon that people aspire to emigrate to? What has changed recently? -Paul
[2024-01-12 15:16:54] - it sure seems that way, yes, i agree on both. ~a
[2024-01-12 15:15:50] - a: I'm no expert on the border, but I've heard that the crisis there (in terms of sheer number of crossings and detentions and whatnot) is larger by most metrics now under Biden than it was under Trump, but the media hasn't been covering it as much. -Paul
[2024-01-12 15:12:55] - yah. ~a
[2024-01-12 15:10:57] - a: Sorry, I probably phrased that wrong. I think it's a big deal, but I don't expect to participate in those ETFs much. -Paul
[2024-01-12 14:43:41] - or is that covid? maybe both. ~a
[2024-01-12 14:41:58] - wow. it's weird. "when mexico sends it's people, they're not sending their best . . . and some i assume are good people" was 2015! (this graph specifically points out that mexican apprehensions vs other countries). *giant* spike seems to be lined up with the beginning of biden's term, right? ~a
[2024-01-11 21:26:07] - donald trump flew on jeffrey epstein's plane 7 times ~a
[2024-01-11 18:33:20] - i do buy very small amounts of gbtc (like only a handful of shares). it's a good way to have bitcoin in a retirement account. after people created etfs in other countries, the premium went away, i think. the 2%/year expense ratio is ridiculous: but then again, that speaks to competition being a good thing. some of the etfs in other countries are closer to 1%/year which is bearable, considering. ~a
[2024-01-11 01:54:48] - yes it's a big deal imo. gbtc (grayscale bitcoin trust) has major technical problems that will be mostly solved by making it into an etf. AND gbtc having competition is definitely a good thing. ~a
[2024-01-10 23:26:22] - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/10/sec-approves-rule-changes-that-pave-the-way-for-bitcoin-etfs.html Not a big deal for me, but I wonder what impact this will have on Bitcoin. -Paul
[2024-01-10 19:01:08] - a: https://paulvsthemarket.com/fantasy-investing-2023/ Sounds like we run until Feb 1st then. So you're saying there's a chance!? -Paul
[2024-01-10 18:54:11] - paul: we didn't define an end date in our bet, so it's whenever pvtm challenge ends. if no such end-date was defined on pvtm, i'd say use 12 months. ~a
[2024-01-10 18:52:55] - a: Random aside, but do you remember when our bet for fantasy investing for 2023 ends? In other words, have you already won or do we need to wait longer to call it?
-Paul[2024-01-10 18:30:09] - sorry that's supposed to be 1/(4%) not one fourth of a percent. ~a
[2024-01-10 18:29:43] - paul: "not money I absolutely need to make rent or pay groceries or something. If it goes down, that wouldn't be ideal but it would be survivable" yeah. my FP calls this a "soon" bucket. "now" is ~1.5y of costs. "soon" is ~5y of costs. and "later" is ~20y of costs. it shouldn't be terribly far off from the 4%/year rule of thumb (they don't use this in their simulations, but it does come out to be similar-ish: 1.5+5+20 = apx 1/4%). ~a
[2024-01-10 18:07:11] - for example they were like "you have most of your bonds in your retirement accounts, and actually you don't want that". i figured i did want to over-weigh my bonds in the retirement accounts. oops? but then, some people take a different approach like my parents: both of my parents are great with money and they still put their retirement INTO their FP's accounts. they pay like 1%(???) of AUM: assets under management to their FP. ~a
[2024-01-10 18:03:57] - yeah that's fair. maybe you're right. you just ask a lot of questions here and mostly i'm like "i feel like that's a good question for someone trained to answer them". sorta like: ianal. ianafp? ~a
[2024-01-10 18:02:29] - a: Yeah, I get it. I just feel like life is so variable that it makes it almost silly to craft elaborate plans for retirement which is so far away. A few years ago I was trying to do my own retirement plan and thinking about how an early retirement in ~10 years might be possible. Now, after a huge drawdown in my retirement funds and doing this Great Clips thing, any kind of early retirement calculations seem patently absurd... -Paul
[2024-01-10 17:47:14] - my guys have read access to all of my accounts except my checking/credit, but you can give them access to those too. you know me, I have strong feelings on financial planning. and I've made lots of changes.theyll know about upside and downside and they've dealt with 100% stocks people before: they know your kind. they can simulate and forecast *any* portfolio mix (including crypto etc). ~a
[2024-01-10 17:35:01] - paul: "tax side, if that's what you mean by a retirement planner". Nope. Not the same, but a retirement planner will often also do your taxes. "difference of opinion" yes of course. If they are a for fee (yearly or whatever) retirement planner, which I would recommend, they won't tell you what to do, but he/she will give you but-tons of recommendations. they will dialog with you, and I love it. ~a
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