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[2024-08-23 20:46:53] - *frequency is obviously still rare, but it's a common enough occurance, particularly for elderly drivers. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E2%80%932011_Toyota_vehicle_recalls and https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/revisionist-history/blame-game&ved=2ahUKEwif_oX3_YuIAxVa4MkDHX -- Xpovos
[2024-08-23 20:41:39] - She made it to 121kmph. In an area that if it had sidewalks like that, has to have been rated for 70kmph, tops. That checks out with the violent and unintentional acceleration option. -- Xpovos
[2024-08-23 20:40:04] - a: Same article, "Evidence provided by experts during the trial show the accelerator was pressed down while the car went through the intersection and the brakes weren't touched." This is sadly common. Drivers frequently* mash the accelerator attempting to push the brake. When they fail to slow, they mash the pedal harder. This gives the driver the palpable illusion that the brakes have malfunctioned. -- Xpovos
[2024-08-20 20:50:09] - "hebner said mcnorgan 'must never drive again,' but the five-year driving ban included in her sentence is 'at the limit of my jurisdiction.'" ~a
[2024-08-20 19:06:07] - i'm just imagining what 10 people next to 1 person looks like. ~a
[2024-08-20 19:05:30] - the difference between 142 and 15 is a bit grim. ~a
[2024-08-20 19:04:29] - also, it's relevant that "india" is notably on that comic. ~a
[2024-08-19 21:14:33] - paul: this made me think of "i'm willing to admit right turns on red are dangerous to pedestrians" ~a
[2024-08-19 14:22:17] - rddt market cap = 8.883b. djt market cap = 4.442b. (they IPOed around the same time) it's like someone knew i had been watching that RDDT/DJT market cap ratio is about 2x. ~a
[2024-08-19 13:55:49] - paul: i also forgot to mention that we'd also probably need to remove all of the "gray" countries for my statement to be even close to true.
but, yeah, i do see china is on your side. china and america. name a more iconic couple? ~a[2024-08-19 13:48:39] - paul: i mean sorta? i don't think india is on "your" side. ~a
[2024-08-19 13:48:13] - paul: yep. ~a
[2024-08-18 21:23:45] - a: Most of the world by area, but it looks like not by population since "we" have China and India on the legal side. -Paul
[2024-08-16 19:27:13] - paul: it doesn't need to be all or nothing. i envision what they do in some countries: just change the "default". you can still turn right on red, but ONLY if you have a "right on red" sign. all of the pink countries. i.e. MOST of the world, by area. anyways, i've driven in ireland and new zealand, and it was 100% fine. ~a
[2024-08-15 20:10:44] - I mean, I guess kudos for finally acknowledging that people are pissed about inflation (particularly with food), but I thought the idiocy of price controls was something pretty much everybody could agree on. -Paul
[2024-08-15 20:09:06] - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/harris-corporate-price-gouging-ban-food-election.html Woof. We finally have an official policy proposal from Kamala Harris and it's.... price controls? And on the food industry!? -Paul
[2024-08-13 05:50:15] - a: You can try to convince me but.... I'm willing to admit right turns on red are dangerous for pedestrians. It's part of the reason I think pedestrians and cyclists should be separated more from roads. I'm not sure I buy that the solution is to make driving tons more inconvenient. How many lives a year do you think it would save? -Paul
[2024-08-13 05:48:35] - a: 46? Yeesh, that's far too close to our age....
-Paul[2024-08-12 18:00:47] - "i'm misty!" ~a
[2024-08-12 12:12:56] - paul: "God, I would hate that. ... wait for a long time unnecessarily ..." are you settled on this topic? should i look up the statistics on this matter: might it change your mind, or should i not bother? the closest i've ever come to hitting a pedestrian with a car was at a right turn on red. ~a
[2024-08-10 16:38:02] - a: We noticed the fastest man in the world is from Alexandria too! We were wondering if he still lives here / there. -Paul
[2024-08-10 16:37:33] - a: "most countries do not allow turning on a red, could the us be next?" God, I would hate that. There's so many times when I have to wait for a long time unnecessarily because I've got a red light even though I can perfectly see that there's plenty of time for me to go. -Paul
[2024-08-05 15:32:17] - i have a few shares of a stock with a cost basis listed as "$0". it's because it was a "spinoff". why they technically got $0 basis in the spinoff seems odd to me, but that's what happened. yahoo finance correctly lists my gain as "+∞"! schwab incorrectly says "+100%" (+100% is strictly incorrect. when you go from $0 to $positive, +100% is wrong, because, obviously it's much more than a 100% gain since it's 100% divided by zero). ~a
[2024-08-05 12:53:49] - fuck, he was probably going there when i lived, like, in walking distance of tc williams. ~a
[2024-08-05 12:52:27] - he went to tc williams (now alexandria city high school). ~a
[2024-08-05 12:50:44] - the fastest person in the world (100m) is from alexandria virginia. ~a
[2024-07-31 17:27:51] - "In Toronto, a driver killed a woman. She was in a crosswalk and died in hospital. She was also pregnant. After a premature birth, the baby died the next day." link. to decrease (or even stem) the already high death rate, we need to get people to slow down. imo making roads less wide and automated enforcement are in our futures. most countries do not allow turning on a red, could the us be next? ~a
[2024-07-27 15:46:50] - a: The question is: How much has Joe Biden been actively making decisions on his future and how much is it him going along with what his inner circle has been telling him. Obviously a grey area. -Paul
[2024-07-27 15:45:23] - a: Is there proof? I mean, depends on what you mean by proof. On some level it's pretty undeniable that donors pulling support and Democratic Party heavyweights like Pelosi and Obama and the Clintons calling for him to step down have had an impact. -Paul
[2024-07-27 15:44:01] - a: "is anyone speculating this, or more importantly, is there any proof that this is what actually happened?" I've seen lots of it on Twitter / x. I know Twitter is not real life, but it's real people (ie, people who are analysts on news shows). -Paul
[2024-07-26 20:31:38] - mig: does it matter? it matters to donald trump more than anyone. ~a
[2024-07-26 15:37:12] - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/republicans-rip-fbi-directors-testimony-trump-might-not-hit-bullet-rcna163653 does it really matter if trump’s injury was the result of a bullet or not? It’s not disputed that the gunman was targeting him and he was injured in the attempt. - mig
[2024-07-26 02:41:02] - https://www.forbes.com/sites/eliamdur/2024/07/25/george-washington-would-have-given-joe-bidens-speech/ this “biden is the modern george washington” narrative is pretty bizarre, given that biden had to get essentially bullied into stepping down, and his selfishness in hanging on for so long could arguably really hurt his party’s chances this upcoming election. - mig
[2024-07-26 02:33:44] - we probably should have snap primaries ideally but its probably too late for that. - mig
[2024-07-26 02:33:16] - a: i mean somewhat true as delegates will still be the ones with voting power but at least the public would have an opportunity to maybe sway the delegates. - mig
[2024-07-25 18:34:58] - mig: i do feel an open convention would be interesting, but an open convention doesn't give voters anything. in fact I feel like an open convention takes power away from voters! ~a
[2024-07-25 14:02:46] - Voters never really truly will have a say on Harris’s nomination unless there’s an open convention. - mig
[2024-07-25 14:00:14] - I do find it more relevant that when Harris did run for the nomination she was pretty much universally rejected. - mig
[2024-07-25 13:59:42] - a: voters implicitly giving their approval for harris by voting for biden is true on a very technical level but we kind of know the deal with VPs in that they don’t matter much electorally. - mig
[2024-07-25 12:09:47] - paul: "doing everything they could to remove any semblance of Democracy in their primary process" ... "voters get no say on". i agree on this point at least partially (they did technically get 100% a say, everybody voted for the ticket knowing biden would likely literally die). i'm not sure what you'd propose as an alternative. ~a
[2024-07-25 12:07:11] - paul: "I can't believe the Democrats have seemingly decided to coalesce around Harris in this way" seems like the logical choice. her ticket was literally voted into office by the nation. i'm not sure who else they'd choose. "Biden administration has been popular" his polling wasn't terrible, and many dems say he was an ineffective leader, but had a powerful administration with a proved track record. ~a
[2024-07-25 12:04:22] - paul: "makes it easier for people to speculate that the real power holders behind the scenes did this TO Biden instead of him deciding on his own" i am not speculating this. are you speculating this? is anyone speculating this, or more importantly, is there any proof that this is what actually happened? ~a
[2024-07-24 15:40:54] - First they cleared the deck to give Biden as much of a cakewalk as possible, now the party is basically hand-picking a replacement (who utterly flamed out in her previous run) that voters get no say on. -Paul
[2024-07-24 15:39:46] - Also, it's a bit rich how the Democratic Party has had this drumbeat of how Democracy is at risk and is on the ballot.... while doing everything they could to remove any semblance of Democracy in their primary process. -Paul
[2024-07-24 15:38:55] - Are they really drinking the Kool-Aid and think that the Biden administration has been popular and re-election would've been a cakewalk if it weren't for the debate performance? -Paul
[2024-07-24 15:37:57] - Also, I can't believe the Democrats have seemingly decided to coalesce around Harris in this way. What a mess. It's like they looked around to try to find the worst option. -Paul
[2024-07-24 15:36:48] - It's so.... interesting that this was announced by an X post and so many people found out that way. Just makes it easier for people to speculate that the real power holders behind the scenes did this TO Biden instead of him deciding on his own. -Paul
[2024-07-22 00:13:03] - This may not be the most important election of our lifetimes, but it's certainly in the running for weirdest. -- Xpovos
[2024-07-21 22:22:34] - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna159867 is this real life? - mig
[2024-07-20 14:15:31] - nope. ~a
[2024-07-17 23:55:31] - https://x.com/yashar/status/1813715656925471194 jesus i thought this was eventually going to blow over. It’s not going to is it? - mig
[2024-07-16 18:24:18] - a: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0dmx4p4m0lo - mig
[2024-07-16 16:30:49] - mig, i think your link got deleted what did it say ~a
[2024-07-16 15:52:22] - https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1812870638580687142 ummm, yikes. - mig
[2024-07-16 13:10:04] - paul: "The majority tends to get what it wants in a lot of instances". The biggest exception to this is when the majority is going against special interests with deep pockets. money will always speak louder than the majority until it is time for an upheaval. ~a
[2024-07-16 13:07:39] - "I think you're conflating minorities with majority views" I think you are too. ~80% of Americans want to live in a walkable neighborhood. 80% is a majority. ~a
[2024-07-16 13:05:16] - paul: "A joke?" not so much a joke as an observation. but yeah, i agree it doesn't matter in the least his party affiliation, and i know about his donation to a democratic pac. ~a
[2024-07-15 21:31:49] - a: Gays were repressed for a long time, but once public sentiment shifted, then government laws and regulations started shifting too. The majority tends to get what it wants in a lot of instances. -Paul
[2024-07-15 21:30:55] - a: "is that really your experience?" In America? I'm as skeptical of the government as anybody but honestly.... yes. I think you're conflating minorities with majority views. -Paul
[2024-07-15 21:28:57] - a: "unless we find out he was a registered republican" A joke? Because I think the info that he was a registered Republican is already out. You think that will make a difference? Why? Evidence of it being staged? -Paul
[2024-07-15 18:36:48] - mig: no. ~a
[2024-07-15 16:10:57] - a: does it matter if he was registered republican? Lots of never Trump republicans out there. - mig
[2024-07-15 02:55:28] - "most of those still want to be able to drive wherever they want" 50% of ***that*** 80%? no. no not 50% of that 80%. Almost all of that 40% cannot drive. ~a
[2024-07-15 02:49:41] - paul: "what's stopping them?" yes like you said the government. laws. zoning laws. minimum parking laws. etc. "typically if a vast majority of people are in favor of something the government tends to come around" is that really your experience? lots of repressed minorities would have issue with this posit. ~a
[2024-07-15 02:46:09] - paul: "those odds might be lower now" yep. unless we find out he was a registered republican. ~a
[2024-07-14 01:53:24] - I think people like to say they want a walkable community, but most of those still want to be able to drive wherever they want. -Paul
[2024-07-14 01:51:40] - It seems incredible to me that almost 80% of people want to live in a walkable community and there isn't at least a few sprinkled around? And once people see how wonderful it is then it spreads like wildfire. -Paul
[2024-07-14 01:50:43] - a: I know the obvious answer is: the government, and that's fair and I think part of the answer. But typically if a vast majority of people are in favor of something the government tends to come around. -Paul
[2024-07-14 01:49:28] - a: I don't have any evidence for my side. It's not something I research. Assuming such a large majority want to love in walkable communities, though.... what's stopping them? -Paul
[2024-07-14 01:47:00] - https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-biden-trump-07-13-24/index.html Those odds might be lower now.... -Paul
[2024-07-12 19:37:14] - https://www.yahoo.com/news/donors-pro-biden-super-pac-170556414.html yikes. - mig
[2024-07-11 18:42:08] - paul: i'm sure there are butt-tons of people using e-bikes and e-scooters today on campus (on the roads, not the pedestrian paths). that's a major shift from when we were there. ~a
[2024-07-11 18:06:18] - paul: "I didn't like having to walk or bus everywhere freshman year" oh man i fucking LOVED it. but also i didn't stick to those two choices. i had two other secret hacks that apparently nobody but me was allowed to use. ~a
[2024-07-11 18:05:09] - paul: "you think Biden has a >50% chance to win?". i do not, no. less than 50%. ~a
[2024-07-11 18:04:40] - paul: i assume you would have them move, and some cannot. ~a
[2024-07-11 18:03:51] - what's clear to me is that many people are unable to live in a car-dominated society. i'm more concerned with that minority: the people, where they live, who literally have no choices, due to how the zoning/etc laws are written. ~a
[2024-07-11 18:02:36] - paul: i know and agree that wording is important. when people are given a "choice" between two things they sometimes choose the thing i'm not excited about. which is why i backed off of those 4/5ths number to 1 half. but my evidence is my evidence, even with the many many qualifiers. otoh, do you have any evidence? ~a
[2024-07-11 18:01:25] - paul: evidence: "79% said being within an easy walk of other places and amenities, such as shops and parks, is very or somewhat important when deciding where to live. Of these respondents, 78% indicated they would be willing to pay more to live in a walkable community." ~a
[2024-07-11 17:44:43] - a: Getting back to the election, you think Biden has a >50% chance to win? -Paul
[2024-07-11 17:43:18] - a: I think you misread what I said about Virginia Tech. I said that I preferred having my car down there, even with the inconvenience of having to walk to the cage to get to it. I didn't like having to walk or bus everywhere freshman year. -Paul
[2024-07-11 17:42:20] - a: Can you provide some evidence for the claim that nearly half of Americans want to live in a walkable neighborhood? I don't necessarily doubt it, but I wonder about the phrasing of the question. -Paul
[2024-07-11 17:28:54] - I’m amazed where at a point where a sitting president’s viability for re-election is hinging on being able to make it through … a press conference. - mig
[2024-07-11 15:31:01] - i would seriously consider moving if i could find a nearby city designed like virginia tech (one that . . . allowed non-students). fuck, even if it was not nearby. ~a
[2024-07-11 15:27:54] - paul: "At college" omfg. you liked virginia tech? wow, me too! wtf, i have so much to say about this. would you seriously live in a neighborhood that was designed like virginia tech?!?! ~a
[2024-07-11 15:26:25] - paul: "I am just making the claim that Americans are different than Europeans in what they want" although i agree with this claim on it's face, i probably disagree on all the details. both americans and europeans have an "almost-50%" minority of people that want to live in walkable neighborhoods EVEN GIVEN the downsides to what that means in reality. "I kind of like things how they are now" hard-disagree. ~a
[2024-07-11 15:10:30] - a: Like nobody expected him to beat Clinton, and he did. Then everybody expected Biden to crush him, and it was shockingly close on election night at points. -Paul
[2024-07-11 15:09:47] - a: I get how percentages work for forecasts and whatnot, but the point was specifically about polls, and can we both agree that the polls HAVE moved? And whatever you have to say about forecasts, can we agree that Trump has tended to surprise people with how well he does more than the opposite? -Paul
[2024-07-11 15:07:54] - a: Which I think again gets to the crux of our disagreement. I think that you think everybody would love a car-less utopia, they just don't have that option or don't know it yet. I think it's possible that some do, but I suspect more are like me. -Paul
[2024-07-11 15:06:39] - a: Like, I don't like cities because I find it hard to get around. At college I didn't find having to walk and take the bus everywhere to be an improvement and enjoyed having my car down there. -Paul
[2024-07-11 15:05:25] - a: I guess another area where we disagree is that discouraging car use is "better". I don't know exactly what a car-less utopia would look like, but I kind of like things how they are now and generally speaking aren't a big fan of places that discourage cars. -Paul
[2024-07-11 15:01:31] - a: "i think we can make things better" I think this is confounding a bunch of different things (like assuming less cars and more bikes is better). I am just making the claim that Americans are different than Europeans in what they want. -Paul
[2024-07-11 13:15:45] - found this on reddit: "you will have hundreds of thousands of people driving on the same highway to the same city every single day but they’ll each fight to the death to convince you that there’s no way a train could get them there" ~a
[2024-07-10 18:37:40] - "Isn't this exactly what I said we probably agree on" potentially. but you also say other things like "most people don't have a problem with our car-centric society". i know they aren't the same thing, and i know you live in that difference. i think both though: that more than 1/3rd of people hate car-dependency, but also that we shouldn't limit, with laws, the people who hate car-dependency. we should decenter negative externalities. ~a
[2024-07-10 18:30:42] - worded differently: 60% chance of winning is strictly different than 60% of the vote for the winning candidate. ~a
[2024-07-10 18:29:58] - paul: "haven't they been wrong a lot in terms of the outcome their models lean toward don't happen?" no. they were one of the only people in 2016 saying that trump might win. if their prediction says there's a 60% chance biden will win, and trump wins, will they be "wrong"? i mean, isn't that how percentages work? ~a
[2024-07-10 18:25:32] - paul: america tends to be more entrepreneurial? i know our stock market beats out the world average, but i'm not sure those two things are the same. ~a
[2024-07-10 18:25:27] - paul: our car culture is bigger today, but i think we can improve on that. the car culture of europe (etc) was huge in the past. ~a
[2024-07-10 17:50:19] - not sure how compelling this is. why would anyone search for the "NFL" in july? ~a
[2024-07-10 15:00:53] - paul: "I think we have enough data points that America is, for various reasons, just simply a different beast" this seems like a major cop-out. many parts of europe were broken like the united states was, only a few decades ago. amsterdam copenhagen, etc were car-dominated disasters until very. recently. i think we can make things better. i think we can make things great. and in a short amount of time. ~a
[2024-07-10 14:59:40] - I'm surprised they still forecast a Biden win. I honestly don't see what he has going for him beyond Trump also being super unpopular. The trend is also clearly against Biden and it seems to largely be based on something that won't improve (his age). -Paul
[2024-07-10 14:57:47] - I guess I can't speak to their forecast. I tend to like Nate Silver and 538 (although I think they are separated now), but haven't they been wrong a lot in terms of the outcome their models lean toward don't happen? -Paul
[2024-07-10 14:56:23] - a: Your link is all about a specific forecast which admits it isn't entirely about polls: "the 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators. Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win — clear in the opposite direction of national polls." -Paul
[2024-07-10 14:56:01] - a: "your link answers the wrong question" I'm not sure I understand. You said "have the polls changed?" and the subhead of my link says Biden has had a "slide in the polls since the debate". -Paul
[2024-07-10 14:51:53] - a: "do you want to write laws that specifically force that 1/3rd to be disallowed from doing their thing?" Isn't this exactly what I said we probably agree on? -Paul
[2024-07-10 14:48:14] - a: To be clear, I mean data points like America has more guns, and is more religious, and tends to be more entrepreneurial. There's also a bigger car culture here, and we like our cars bigger. -Paul
[2024-07-10 14:46:44] - a: "not in america." Yeah, maybe it has happened in Europe or something, but I think we have enough data points that America is, for various reasons, just simply a different beast. Maybe it's population density. Maybe it's affluence. Maybe it's something else. -Paul
[2024-07-10 14:42:25] - a: "i feel like i could learn a lot. it could also be an interesting hobby / social experience." In that case, I would say totally do it. Sounds like it could be a fun experience. -Paul
[2024-07-10 13:31:30] - paul: "Is that true?" yes. yes it is. your link answers the wrong question: "how are the polls, are they good?" yeah, they're bad, terrible, and no good. but that wasn't the question, the question was "have the polls changed?" no, no they haven't changed. scroll down to "How has the forecast changed over time?". ~a
[2024-07-10 13:29:06] - paul: "70-80% of Americans don't care at all and are perfectly happy with using cars to get around" i don't think this is right at all. not even close. but even if it was correct, do you seriously want the laws and courts and zoning to ignore the wants and needs of a good 1/3rd of your population? do you want to write laws that specifically force that 1/3rd to be disallowed from doing their thing? it's not very libertarian of you. ~a
[2024-07-10 13:25:11] - paul: "I just feel like if there was a city / county / whatever which banned cars or roads or whatever the dream is and instead had bike paths everywhere... I don't know if you would have a mass migration" they did. and you do. not in america. with a hard italics on: yet. ~a
[2024-07-10 13:16:56] - paul: "invest my own money?" yes, i will continue to do this, totally. the minimum monthly investment is ridiculously low. if i write a $600 check, i'm good for a year. eventually, this is like 1% of my portfolio? "I don't quite see the appeal of having to deal with other people" i'm on the fence about this too, but they seem cool, and i feel like i could learn a lot. it could also be an interesting hobby / social experience. ~a
[2024-07-10 12:46:12] - a: "the debate performance didn't affect the polls" https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/04/biden-trump-debate-polling-00166590 Is that true? I don't follow the polls too closely but the commentary I read has indicated he's fallen further behind. -Paul
[2024-07-10 12:44:57] - a: "i think my vote changed a lot" Like what? -Paul
[2024-07-10 12:44:27] - a: I think there's a very vocal minority who feels very strongly about this and I think something like 70-80% of Americans don't care at all and are perfectly happy with using cars to get around. -Paul
[2024-07-10 12:43:21] - a: Or what kind of theoretical experiment you would run, but I just feel like if there was a city / county / whatever which banned cars or roads or whatever the dream is and instead had bike paths everywhere... I don't know if you would have a mass migration. -Paul
[2024-07-10 12:28:41] - a: "i think it'll be much closer than you think to 50%" Yup, and this is likely our biggest source of disagreement. Obviously a lot depends on how you phrase the question (ie, I think you might even get a majority who say they favor more flexibility for pedestrians...) -Paul
[2024-07-10 12:26:58] - a: Okay, got it. It seems like a cool experience to join an investment club like that, but I kind of think I would rather just.... invest my own money? Like, I don't quite see the appeal of having to deal with other people.
-Paul[2024-07-09 23:52:54] - I think it's pretty wild it's *still* being discussed with a moderate amount of seriousness whether Biden should drop out. I assume that type of talk it will die down soon enough as we get closer to the national convention, but that it's been around for this long is pretty unbelievable. - mig
[2024-07-09 17:25:39] - paul: "At what point can we start to definitively say Biden has no shot at winning" surprisingly the debate performance didn't affect the polls. so, i would not say that today. ~a
[2024-07-09 17:23:20] - paul: "I don't think your vote changed anything" why not? i think my vote changed a lot. or my vote changed about as much as could be expected for a vote to change. ~a
[2024-07-09 17:21:51] - paul: "most people don't have a problem with our car-centric society" are you using the usual definition of "most", meaning 50% or more? i think it'll be much closer than you think to 50%. i'll argue "almost" most (a fucking huge minority, bordering on a majority) of people do have a problem with our car-centric society. and a healthy subset of those people have such a huge problem with it, that their lives are very rough. ~a
[2024-07-09 17:16:11] - paul: there's a minimum investment, but you are allowed to withdraw your money at any time (so the minimum investment is a "momentum" thing, more than a contractual or rule-based thing). ~a
[2024-07-09 17:15:50] - paul: "Or something else?" it's this one. its a much older concept borne outof a time pre-chat-room pre-message-board. 10-15 people (the maximum number of people is written into the bylaws/contracts) that put money into a shared mutual fund. the group meets monthly or whatever (hybrid: virtually & physically) and discusses stocks and stock decisions. by simple voting, they decide where money is invested. ~a
[2024-07-09 17:13:19] - Polls can be wrong, but they are usually wrong in that they undercount Republican support, not Democratic support. -Paul
[2024-07-09 17:12:54] - https://x.com/CortesSteve/status/1810321002968285542 Trump is already ahead in the polls, which is Biden's worst showing against him, and apparently the last time a Democrat trailed in national polls in July was 2000! -Paul
[2024-07-09 17:11:46] - So it seems unlikely Trump's popularity is going to get impacted negatively by the trials. Biden was already a wildly unpopular incumbent in terms of approval ratings courtesy of raging inflation and global instability. -Paul
[2024-07-09 17:10:43] - Biden is very unlikely to get better in terms of mental performance. There was a theory voters wouldn't consider a convicted felon but that seems to have backfired as Trump has only risen in the polls as the law has come after him. -Paul
[2024-07-09 17:09:40] - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/poll-americans-on-biden-age/story?id=107126589 An overwhelming percentage of Americans thought Biden was too old to serve (including 73% of Democrats!), and this was before the debate! -Paul
[2024-07-09 17:08:55] - a: Regarding the debate aftermath and Biden saying he's staying in.... At what point can we start to definitively say Biden has no shot at winning? -Paul
[2024-07-09 17:01:22] - a: "i voted third party in 2016 (johnson) and i kinda regret it" Why? Not trying to that asshole people think I turn into every election, but I don't think your vote changed anything. -Paul
[2024-07-09 16:59:25] - a: And I think that's the case not just because some nefarious forces have tricked Americans into being against bikes and public transit or whatever. I think it's because for most people cars are just the superior option. -Paul
[2024-07-09 16:58:15] - a: The biggest difference I see is that I think most people don't have a problem with our car-centric society (and probably in fact prefer it to a bike-centric or pedestrian-centric one). -Paul
[2024-07-09 16:57:22] - a: Because I imagine we agree on like 90% of the stuff. I think we would both prefer cars and bikes not share the road in the way they do now. I think we both think it's dangerous. -Paul
[2024-07-09 16:56:47] - a: "you MUST support..." Yeah, I think we might probably agree on various government laws / regulations in favor of cars. Honestly, I was just thinking recently that it seems silly to me how much we seem to disagree on this... -Paul
[2024-07-09 16:55:29] - a: What exactly is an investing club? A subscription service like the Motley Fool? Or something more like a chat room / message board where people discuss ideas? Or something else? -Paul
[2024-07-08 11:35:50] - i'd be all for it, obviously, if it hurt donald trump's chances at being president for four more years. i'm not sure which is better in that respect, though. ~a
[2024-07-03 16:47:22] - https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html wow this is fucking wild if it happens. - mig
[2024-07-03 14:08:01] - paul: i'm thinking of maybe joining an investing club. honestly i'm on the fence about it. the things that make me consider *not* joining probably aren't what you think: it's looking like a big time commitment (3-4 hours per month, all in). but, i waste ~50x of my time doing dumb shit, so maybe that's a bad reason. ~a
[2024-07-02 13:41:07] - on that note, should a truth social daily active user be treated the same as a reddit daily active user or twitter daily active user? obviously not. but they shouldn't be orders of magnitude off, right? djt market cap / daily active users = $76,000 (5.8e9/76e3, hah market cap is 76e3**2). for reddit, it's $220 (10.8e9/50e6). for twitter it's $160 (41.09e9/260e6). i guess . . . he's about to get richer off of a meme stock? yikes. ~a
[2024-07-01 20:10:41] - i know trump doesn't generally use his own personal money for campaigns, but i did notice that he's locked out from selling djt shares until late september, and that his 70% of the outstanding shares is currently worth ~4b. (for comparison, his net worth is 2b as of 2024). having 4b extra could also affect the outcome of the election. ~a
[2024-07-01 19:48:40] - i kinda don't understand why a president would ever peacefully transition power if he's completely immune from not doing so. ~a
[2024-07-01 19:47:49] - the president "is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. there is no immunity for unofficial acts." today. any clue yet on if a president asking the georgia secretary of state to "find 11,780 votes" is an official act? if it was an official act, it sounds a bit like a coup. but i guess it was a coup either way. ~a
[2024-07-01 16:36:52] - mig: i voted third party in 2016 (johnson) and i kinda regret it. trump was just too terrible for the people of the world in the short term and in the long term. i blame democratic and republican primary voters for the shit-storm we're in today though. ~a
[2024-07-01 16:31:02] - mig: all of those people are less polarizing and i'm not sure it's even close. i know i'm not the only person that'd rather see aoc, newsom, or desantis than trump. ~a
[2024-07-01 15:07:38] - reddit comment: "Fast casual restaurants in my area do something that's really cool. They have pre-made meals on shelves ready to grab and go for free. I think it's when they have too much time or ingredients on hand. What's really fun is that the restaurant staff gives the meals unique names. Last week for lunch I grabbed a meal from a deli they named Thomas S. It was a reuben, pickle, and salt and vinegar chips. It was pretty good!" ~a
[2024-07-01 00:58:56] - a: problem is all the popular younger ones are more or less polarizing also: AOC, Newsome, Desantis, etc. - mig
[2024-06-30 16:26:17] - mig: every time i see a clip of the debate i get depressed. it is increasingly likely that we'll see four more years of trump. i'll be 47 years old when we probably will elect someone . . . younger and less polarizing. ~a
[2024-06-30 16:17:36] - paul: you MUST support, using your property tax money, and you must support, using your income tax money, the new superior technology. you are not allowed to opt out any zoning laws. or parking minimum laws. any situation where young people live, or old people live, or disabled people live, the full force of the law does mostly give preference to ignoring those people and their needs. ~a
[2024-06-30 16:15:17] - paul: "Isn't most new, superior technology in many ways racist / classiest / ableist / ageist or whatever?" (sometimes, but usually not, no. but also this isn't new). even if i concede though. this isn't just new superior technology: it's new superior technology codified and enforced by law. ~a
[2024-06-30 16:10:29] - paul: ugh. yeah. i don't doubt that you could be right in the end. is the law sound? i don't know because i'm not a lawyer. he definitely broke the law 34 times: when he created 34 blatantly false business documents. can you at least agree on that?! . . . now whether what he got charged on was or wasn't kosher, i'll concede that i just don't know. we'll see how it turns out on appeal, but i feel like it might go your way. ~a
[2024-06-30 13:10:58] - But I guess there are still lots of people who think that was wrong? Laramie obviously has incentive to try to clear its name, but it also sounds like the drug deal story has lots of sources to back it up. -Paul
[2024-06-30 13:09:36] - https://x.com/TheFP/status/1807392712770965607 I'm curious what people think of the Matthew Shepard case? For the longest time I assumed the narrative of it being a hate crime was the right one, then I heard about the supposed drug-deal-gone-bad narrative and assumed it was the accepted one. -Paul
[2024-06-29 03:29:01] - a: Isn't most new, superior technology in many ways racist / classiest / ableist / ageist or whatever? Usually it's expensive, so the poors can't afford it. Often old people can't understand it... -Paul
[2024-06-29 03:26:37] - a: It reeks a lot to me of a political prosecution to punish him for being so hated as President and being such a strong threat to Biden. -Paul
[2024-06-29 03:25:58] - a: And yeah, while I would love for Presidents to not be above the law, I also don't love the look of a leading Presidential candidate being charged using novel legal theories by a DA from the opposite party. -Paul
[2024-06-29 03:24:57] - a: Seems like a bit much. Does the fact a judge and jury and DA signed off on it change my mind? Not much. I still kind of think OJ did it. SCOTUS just overturned Chevron deference. Things get decided "wrongly" all the time. -Paul
[2024-06-29 03:23:14] - a: Including from sources like Cuomo and the NYT. And from what I can tell I tend to agree. It seems like making felonies out of something that probably isn't illegal (paying hush money) just because he was running for President... -Paul
[2024-06-29 03:21:35] - a: I'm not sure what to tell you. Most legal analysis of this particular Trump case have made it sound like this charge was a stretch and involved trying to tie different accusations together in a way that has never been done before. -Paul
[2024-06-28 12:15:08] - i didn't watch the debate last night and after watching this clip I guess i'm glad I didn't. What in tarnation. - mig
[2024-06-27 19:29:11] - i saw a new one you guys might like. "car infrastructure is inherently racist". obviously that's some "click bait" for you, but also i kinda agree, that there was a time in the 60s-90s where car infrastructure was racist. but IMO, it's only true historically. at least in the united states. now car infrastructure is merely classist / ableist / ageist etc. ~a
[2024-06-25 17:00:18] - wow, check out the indexes. (13:00 eastern) i've never seen this kinda disparity. s&p +0.0%. dow -0.9%. nasdaq +0.8%. a huge difference, wow. i know that the indexes hold vastly different things, but still, with that information, an almost 2% difference between dow and nasdaq is something i've never seen. ~a
[2024-06-24 13:40:42] - mig: can you explain why you said that? at least twice or four times I said literally "tons of innocent people go to jail every day" or "which does happen" or "that is what is likely will happen" or "'it's fair to question outcomes' i agree with this" ~a
[2024-06-24 13:24:49] - a: I guess there's never been a wrongful conviction ever in the history of this country, right? - mig
[2024-06-23 21:17:56] - paul: "Not politically motivated?" no clue "Not overkill?" no. not overkill. imo. ~a
[2024-06-23 21:17:28] - paul: "Because judges don't always make the 'right' decision" you skipped the jury and the grand jury and the da, i think? "things get overturned all the time" if you're right about the jury and grand jury and da and judge all being wrong, then that is what is likely will happen. ~a
[2024-06-23 03:13:44] - https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4734858-andrew-cuomo-donald-trump-alvin-bragg-hush-money-case-new-york/ Even Andrew Cuomo is admitting the case shouldn't have gone forward and Trump is being targeted. -Paul
[2024-06-23 03:12:23] - a: I think the reason that is an over specific qualification is because that is part of the key reason they could side-step the statute of limitations and turn it into a felony. -Paul
[2024-06-23 03:11:12] - a: There's a much better example of my "library card" hypothetical that we have now: Hunter Biden. Do you think him being convicted of three felonies for lying on a gun application is right? Not politically motivated? Not overkill? -Paul
[2024-06-23 03:08:11] - a: "If that's the case why did the judge go for it?" Because judges don't always make the "right" decision, or the decision I agree with? I mean, things get overturned all the time. -Paul
[2024-06-20 13:59:52] - https://old.reddit.com/r/unpopularopinion/comments/bonyd0/cars_were_a_mistake/ an old reddit post from 2019, about a year before i got on the "cars suck" train. it's a great summary of the problem, but it is just scratching the surface: there's so many great positions he left out. ~a
[2024-06-19 02:37:04] - you lose me when you say "first prosecution of a former president and current presidential candidate". the bar for a president should be the same (or lower) than anybody else. "high crimes" do not apply to most citizens. ~a
[2024-06-19 02:35:20] - "Legal experts contacted by the New York Times said that the indictment combines business records charges with state election law in a way that had never previously been done in a case involving a federal campaign". this article was behind a paywall so I'll just ask you: that seems like an over specific qualification does it not? so what if the one provision wasn't combined with a federal campaign? ~a
[2024-06-19 02:27:29] - If that's the case why did the judge go for it? Why did the grand jury go for it? Why did the jury go for it? I'm sure the defense reminded them all it was novel, if it was novel. ~a
[2024-06-19 02:10:42] - And it doesn't even specify how those crimes are elevated to a felony or what the underlying crimes might be. -Paul
[2024-06-19 02:09:26] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_the_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_New_York See the part labelled "Legal Experts". I don't claim to be a lawyer or an expert on this case, but it seems like even leftwing sources agree that connecting the hush money to campaign finance to business records and using it to elevate a crime to a felony (and skirt statute of limitations) is an entirely new thing. -Paul
[2024-06-19 02:06:16] - a: That's kind of my point. The idea of combining one legal activity (paying hush money) with somewhat related illegal activites of lesser degrees and turning it into some larger charge is a bit of an odd look, especially when your test case is the first prosecution of a former president and current presidential candidate. -Paul
[2024-06-18 20:48:22] - paul: if trump had paid hush money to stormy daniels out of his personal bank account, to hide information from US voters, and lied on a library card application in texas, and falsified zero business records, to hide information from US voters, then i'm not sure if he would have even broken any laws, let alone felonies. ~a
[2024-06-18 20:46:09] - paul: if you think this in on-par with lying on a library card application in texas, then . . . i'm kinda dumbfounded. i'm not even sure how to respond. ~a
[2024-06-18 20:45:41] - paul: "it's fair to question outcomes" i agree with this. but, i also don't see any issues with this case. i agree with the outcome the jury came to. "she gets charged with lying on a library card application in Texas" this seems like a terrible analogy. if by library card you mean . . . cheating on her company's business records over a multi-month period of time. 34 different records falsified? ~a
[2024-06-18 19:07:50] - a: Won't we think it's a little sus even if judges and juries all sign off on it? -Paul
[2024-06-18 19:07:28] - a: But I also don't think our legal system is perfect and I think it's fair to question outcomes. In four years when Trump is President and running against Kamala Harris and she gets charged with lying on a library card application in Texas... -Paul
[2024-06-18 19:05:32] - a: I think the answer to all of your questions is: because a lot of people hate Trump with a fiery passion. Yes, I think most of the time our checks and the multiple steps prevent things like this from happening... -Paul
[2024-06-17 22:11:46] - yay, i upgraded the message board to php 8! we are only 4 years behind schedule. ~a
[2024-06-10 20:03:19] - mig: so no we're talking about a bad-DA, and bad-judge? both working together to take down trump, who was innocent of all wrongdoing, in this situation. is that the summary of what you and paul are going for? ~a
[2024-06-10 17:52:25] - a: come on man we know the bar is pretty low for indictment with grand juries. - mig
[2024-06-10 17:51:50] - a: bad jury instructions from the judge? - mig
[2024-06-10 13:57:00] - paul: same question for the jury. why did the jury accept it? if it's bad-terrible-law i'm sure the defense told them as such. why did they side with the terrible DA? same question for the grand jury: i get that there's typically nobody who knows the law there except the terrible-DA, but i'm sure that check is there for a good reason too, right? ~a
[2024-06-10 13:51:10] - paul: well, it is good that we have multiple checks. so that a terrible DA can be checked by a grand jury, a judge, and a jury. it's not a perfect system, of course; tons of innocent people go to jail every day. but, i think in this case they made the right decision. if you guys are right, and the interpretation of the law is bad, then why did the judge accept any of this? ~a
[2024-06-10 03:50:52] - a: And that this is, as has been mentioned before, kind of a stretch to turn something which normally might not even be illegal into a felony that could mean jail time, it kind of looks like Trump is being targeted here because of who he is. -Paul
[2024-06-10 03:49:13] - a: I like the idea of nobody being above the law, but I also like the idea of the people in power not using the law to try to nullify their chief political rivals. Given that Bragg made going after Trump a big part of his campaign... -Paul
[2024-06-09 11:00:20] - I completely disagree. The line for ex-presidents and front runners for next president nominations should be the same as ex-felons and repeat offenders. If anything (!) the bar should be lower. ~a
[2024-06-09 02:22:12] - a: I mean, I have to imagine there are literally thousands of not tens of thousands of things that previous Presidents have done which are clearly worse and more serious. This is a glaringly weak precedent breaker. -Paul
[2024-06-09 02:21:11] - a: Then I would've hoped it would be for something a little more serious than paying hush money to somebody. Not to mention the aforementioned legal hoops that had to be jumped through to even make this a felony. -Paul
[2024-06-09 02:19:50] - a: Right. I guess it just seems to me that if we're going to break our 200+ year history of not convicting ex-Presidents (and, perhaps more importantly, the leading opposition candidate in a current Presidential election)... -Paul
[2024-06-05 21:14:15] - if he wanted to cover something something up, he is 100% free to do that. he just had to make sure he didn't break any laws. it's like when people scream at me "if you don't want me to park in the fucking bike lane, where do you want me to park?!". my response is always the same "somewhere where it's legal". ~a
[2024-06-05 21:09:58] - paul: in the first time in history we have a former president who is a convicted felon? 11 fraudulent vouchers, 12 fraudulent invoices, and 11 fraudulent checks. the 12 member jury considered trump personally broke the law all 34 times. when lying in business records to break a different law, you are committing a felony and he knew it. source ~a
[2024-06-05 18:56:43] - a: I haven't been following the trial too closely. Is this the one where hush money paid to a stripper was made out to be some sort of campaign finance violation and since it was multiple payments they turned it into multiple charges? -Paul
[2024-06-03 14:40:05] - "there's actually some weird laws about having that many felonies specifically, if you want to know more google: 'rule 34 donald trump'" ~a
[2024-06-01 12:56:44] - if the judge, and the two juries, did their jobs, don't you think an ill-conceived, unjustified mess, would have turned out differently? ~a
[2024-05-31 19:53:08] - you're describing a failure of the jury, the judge, and the grand jury, and the district attorney, which does happen. if you are right, and if honig is right, then it will be overturned. my money is with the grand jury, and the judge, and the jury, and the district attorney this time. ~a
[2024-05-31 19:14:10] - https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-was-convicted-but-prosecutors-contorted-the-law.html “ Both of these things can be true at once: The jury did its job, and this case was an ill-conceived, unjustified mess.” - mig
[2024-05-31 19:13:18] - a: my issues go deeper than the jurors. - mig
[2024-05-31 18:53:28] - mig: aren't you arguing against a unanimous pool of 12 people? they, 100%, all 12, seemed to feel it was proven for all 34 counts. ~a
[2024-05-31 13:09:28] - upgrading what's normally a misdemeanor charge to a felony based on a connection to an underlying crime that Trump was never charged with nor did the prosecution even attempt to prove is to me, kind of really fucked up. - mig
[2024-05-31 12:53:00] - novel legal ground? ~a
[2024-05-31 01:22:48] - the novel legal ground of the case still bothers me greatly. The appeals process could throw a wrench into everything but who knows if that'll be resolved by the election. - mig
[2024-05-31 00:04:03] - In the end, I suspect this is going to be almost nothing but a footnote to history. Trump will raise money off it. Biden will campaign on the convicted felon aspect, and it'll change ridiculously few votes. This MIGHT finally be the death knell for the Republican party, though. -- Xpovos
[2024-05-31 00:03:05] - a: I was mildly surprised. The case was on some fairly novel legal ground. But there's plenty of animosity against Trump to bias the jury AND it feels unquestionable that there's some level of stuff going on all around him that feels off, so it's not impossible to say a guilty verdict is more about attempting to find justice instead of any hard and fast legal situation. -- Xpovos
[2024-05-30 21:10:00] - guilty on all 34 counts? ~a
[2024-05-29 16:36:33] - paul: for our non-bet i picked an end date: i decided randomly that 4 years was a good amount of time. but, also it seems like their presidential terms are four years and that inauguration is very close to december 31. ~a
[2024-05-29 12:36:54] - Johnson got 4 million+ votes back in 2016. I have to guess thats a pretty good chunk of the libertarian base. I think these days they probably lean a little right but I think it mostly has to do with candidate quality. Johnson was by far the most likeable and capable presidential candidate and the following ones haven’t really matched. - mig
[2024-05-29 12:19:36] - it sounds like they try to be impartial, but in reality I bet there is a strong right bend in their voting behaviors and trump might be no exception. ~a
[2024-05-29 12:17:30] - a majority, sure. but even a minority voting for trump or Biden could turn out to be a deciding difference. ~a
[2024-05-29 05:22:51] - Slightly more nuanced answer: The former leadership of the LP was accused by some of being a little too cozy with the left (the 2016 VP nominee infamously "vouched" for Hilary Clinton in the waning days of the campaign). The current leadership is accused by some of being too cozy with the right (they invited Trump to speak at the convention). -Paul
[2024-05-29 05:19:48] - a: If there is an LP candidate on the ballot? I imagine the majority vote for the LP candidate. If there is none.... I don't have hard evidence to provide you but I've heard it generally falls into: 1/3 vote R, 1/3 vote D, 1/3 don't vote. -Paul
[2024-05-28 22:52:03] - nice. something I tried to google yesterday and couldn't find anything. in the past N elections, who did self proclaimed libertarians vote for? Including the libertarian candidate (or not), including third parties (or not). Like did they mostly vote for Biden or trump last time? Did they vote for trump or Hillary? Did all of them vote for Johnson? Or no? ~a
[2024-05-28 22:11:08] - Very on brand for Libertarians for "none of the above" being in second place on the final ballot. -Paul
[2024-05-28 22:10:30] - https://reason.com/2024/05/26/chase-oliver-is-the-libertarian-partys-presidential-pick/ URL says it all. I admittedly am not overly familiar with Oliver's positions, but everything I've heard up until now makes me think this was one of the best possible outcomes. -Paul
[2024-05-26 02:55:06] - a: But I guess what I'm saying is that I almost see Bitcoin as like half investment but also half hedge or insurance against a dollar collapse or something. Obviously it can gain value while the dollar isn't hyperinflating away, though... -Paul
[2024-05-26 02:52:58] - a: Yeah, I don't necessarily disagree. I can remember like 7 years ago when it seemed crazy that Bitcoin was nearing $20k. A lot of my cost basis is decently low too, although not as low as yours I would imagine. -Paul
[2024-05-25 14:11:40] - for what it's worth, i think this is the moon. moon was $10k per bitcoin.
bitcoin did succeed. . . . and it was like 5 years ago. ~a[2024-05-25 14:09:37] - bitcoin is 5% of my total liquid portfolio. i probably won't change that percentage any time soon, or ever. (and i will re-balance every few years, and pay a butt-tons of taxes, if the prices go up a bunch, or if the prices drop). i'm in a bit of a unique situation, though, where i got that 5% for, essentially, nothing. my cost-basis is very low. ~a
[2024-05-25 13:53:40] - a: I suspect I'll always own a sizeable portion of my current holding until it either becomes obvious that Bitcoin isn't going to be a long term store of value or we see some sort of dramatic monetary collapse where Bitcoin goes to the moon. -Paul
[2024-05-25 13:52:21] - a: You don't have to answer if you don't want to (or feel uncomfortable), but do you still own any Bitcoin? If so, I'm curious when you would consider selling. I've been asking myself that question lately and don't have a good answer. -Paul
[2024-05-22 11:52:09] - yes, egregious driving, depending on context, that's what i mean
~a[2024-05-21 03:38:12] - a: I guess I don't necessarily think of failing to stop for a pedestrian at a crosswalk as "really egregious". Obviously it depends a bit on context. -Paul
[2024-05-21 01:50:41] - yeah egregious driving that's what i mean. ~a
[2024-05-20 14:12:51] - a: I wouldn't say I often observe crazy driving when walking around, but obviously I sometimes observe it while driving. I typically don't think to try to memorize the license plate unless it's really egregious and I think I might have to talk to the cops.
-Paul[2024-05-20 12:22:01] - https://rate-driver.com/VA/TRR4251 do you guys ever witness crazy driving when you're walking around? I wonder if there's anything I can do in situations like this? Short of filing a police report? Is there a way I can report this to their insurance company, I feel like that could have a bigger affect than a police report? ~a
[2024-05-18 14:56:29] - a: Oh, sure. Lots of buyers have gotten screwed as well. GME probably is mostly attracting gamblers right now. -Paul
[2024-05-17 19:20:10] - paul: i feel like what you said could also be said about the buyers of gme, as well. in the last week, they went from 20 to 50 then right back to 20. i suppose if you bought at 10, (or, hell, if you sold at 40) you don't really care, but for all the other gme/amc-buyers, their lesson could be similar: meme stocks suck for lots of people. ~a
[2024-05-17 14:49:13] - i remember hearing about frost giant a long time ago. years and years ago they were posting to the sc2 subreddit with info about a new rts. ~a
[2024-05-17 02:21:51] - https://www.startengine.com/offering/frostgiant Intriguing... -Paul
[2024-05-17 02:21:41] - a: I don't know, the short-sellers of GME? The lesson being don't mess around with meme stocks? I've had no desire to do anything with GME (at least with actual money) since the whole Wall Street Bets thing. -Paul
[2024-05-14 21:45:15] - paul: which "they"? and which lessons? honestly, i'd stay away from gme, short or long. it's interesting to me that their earnings is positive. but, they were under their estimated earnings last quarter, so i don't exactly understand why the market went so crazy. market's valuation of gme won't be rational, maybe ever. ~a
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