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[2022-11-03 20:30:16] - Question: Without looking, what would you all guess is the general public opinion on Elon Musk in terms of favorable vs unfavorable? -Paul
[2022-11-03 20:21:10] - paul: yes. i'll assume that even if it was down in 2021, it would have had to be down 45% for violence on women to not be UP. (6%/11%-1 = -45%) or the ratio of women journalists would have had to change similarly. do you seriously think violence on journalists is down more than 45%? ~a
[2022-11-03 20:15:34] - a: "violence on women journalists is UP from previous years" Is it? I saw this pop up on my twitter feed independently after you posted it and some people pointed out that the number of journalists killed was down in 2021. -Paul
[2022-11-03 17:33:34] - Honestly I’m more peeved about the banal virtue signaling than the whole men/women thing. It’s not like the despotic regimes and militant groups are going to see this and be like “oh sorry we’ll stop killing journos!” - mig
[2022-11-03 17:03:49] - i feel like they could have made such better points. like, for instance: violence on women journalists is UP from previous years. and it literally is! it's almost like they went out of their way to highlight how\\ it's *relatively* a small problem.
~a[2022-11-03 16:51:08] - a: That until we get to 100% of journalists being killed being men, the UN won't be happy? I kid, but I honestly don't know. -Paul
[2022-11-03 16:07:56] - this has to be a joke assuming it's not a joke, like what the heck did they MEAN to point out? ~a
[2022-11-03 14:03:09] - a: Ah, didn't think I knew he had a baby born on Star Wars day. Does seem a bit odd. -Paul
[2022-11-03 12:26:43] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/02/paul-pelosi-attack-conspiracy-theories/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_politics "Don't be transparent" is a helluva position from a place whose tagline is "Democracy dies in Darkness". - mig
[2022-11-03 04:06:24] - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587894226695884800 i thought this was kind of funny. - mig
[2022-11-02 18:47:55] - if this random story on the internet is to be believed. the part that makes me 100% believe it could be fabricated is "baby was born on star wars day" it's like they were trying to think of a REASON to give out the date of birth.
~a[2022-11-02 18:15:26] - a: What are the details? The ages? Sorry, I just am now that knowledgeable about Musk's sex life.
Did he have some thing where he tried to get his baby-mama to not talk to her mom? -Paul[2022-11-02 14:23:47] - all of the details line up with musk and grime's real life. of course, that doesn't mean it wasn't written by anyone who had those details. ~a
[2022-11-02 14:22:15] - a: Uh... I don't know. Is there a reason to think it was Musk? I only skimmed it. Not sure how much credence I would give anonymous reddit posts considering there have been NUMEROUS actual journalism articles about Musk that have ended up being almost entirely untrue. -Paul
[2022-11-02 14:12:41] - paul: what are the odds that this (deleted) reddit post (it's at this TLD because it was deleted) was written by elon musk's ex-girlfriend. it's likely it was written by a troll to make it seem like it was elon musk's ex-girlfriend, but still, it's an odd work of fiction regardless. ~a
[2022-11-02 14:01:49] - ok. ~a
[2022-11-02 14:01:01] - a: The exposing himself to ladies... this is the first I've heard of it, which is surprising because if there was some truth to it I would imagine it would be all over the news. The pedo-guy thing I agree with, though. That was bizarre. -Paul
[2022-11-02 14:00:09] - a: "am I not making my points clearly enough?" No, I think you are being clear, I just disagree with most? I still see no concrete evidence Musk tried to kill HSR (and plenty of evidence it was completely screwed whatever Musk did). I don't understand why trying to create a company that might fail is so evil (plenty of smart people swore Tesla was going to fail and look how that worked out)... -Paul
[2022-11-02 13:30:00] - mig: could HSR inside of california or outside of california in CONUS come to fruition in my lifetime without musk doing musk shit? maybe? who knows. ~a
[2022-11-02 13:28:33] - mig: maybe true but the fact that musk tried his hardest to help kill HSR is (one of the dozen reasons) why i think musk is a tool. ~a
[2022-11-02 13:14:45] - and i think it bears repeating the ca state gov is doing more to kill hsr than musk could ever hope to. - mig
[2022-11-02 13:12:26] - a: have extreme doubts the exposing story has any substance to it. Nobody reported on it seriously aside from business insider and you’d think with so much scrutiny on musk more details on this would’ve come out. - mig
[2022-11-02 09:50:45] - no I don't hate musk for being a hype-master that gets 50% of the way there. I hate him for losing 100% of starlink investors money. and exposing himself to ladies. and trying to kill California hsr. and spending 50k to get dirt on a guy who was trying to save lives. am I not making my points clearly enough? ~a
[2022-11-02 03:27:26] - a: If the point is Musk is a hype master who routinely is way overly optimistic about his stuff... then I would certainly agree. But I would argue that he also often (usually?) gets like 70% of the way there which is still pretty cool. -Paul
[2022-11-02 03:25:47] - a: How would Starlink be fraud? I get that sometimes there can be some grey area, but fraud is also a pretty strong term. Was the Model 3 a fraud for never really getting to a $35k price point? Cybertruck a fraud for being 2 years late? -Paul
[2022-11-01 21:40:58] - paul: also true. at a certain point, i feel like it borders on Elizabeth Holmes level stuff though? i don't think starlink is there yet: there's probably no literal fraud yet. but it's getting there? ~a
[2022-11-01 21:39:08] - mig: true. ~a
[2022-11-01 21:38:45] - a: Yeah, but unless you are sure he is maliciously doing it and that it will fail... I mean, was the fire phone a tool move? The Zune? Myspace? Stadia? Okay, maybe that last one was.
I guess I like entrepreneurs and innovators to try shooting for the stars (literally!) and pushing the boundaries even if they might sometimes fail. -Paul[2022-11-01 21:28:56] - considering the aid starlink has given to ukraine against the russians. I think its good it exists. - mig
[2022-11-01 21:22:05] - paul: getting customers to use a thing that will eventually die, getting investors to invest in something that will never make them a profit. meh, it's the least compelling of the list though, so i don't blame you for not getting it. ~a
[2022-11-01 21:21:23] - paul: so my retirement planner called me just now. he doesn't use ibonds personally, but he's definitely not against them. for cash it sounds like he mostly uses cd ladders, bond ladders, and savings accounts. ~a
[2022-11-01 20:49:17] - a: Like, seriously, what's the "tool" angle for Starlink? I don't get it. -Paul
[2022-11-01 20:49:06] - yah. ~a
[2022-11-01 20:48:30] - a: I think we've gone over this, but I think HSR was doomed for far more reasons than Musk (assuming he was even secretly plotting against it). I don't understand the hate for Starlink since at worst it seems like it might just be ultimately be something that works, but struggles to make money, and I think FSD is something to strive for and Tesla seems to be doing it best right now. -Paul
[2022-11-01 20:41:37] - paul: i hear you and i agree with you, maybe 20%.
regarding whedon and bezos, it feels different for musk because he's a tool at work too. getting in the way of HSR and/or the vegas-loop / starlink / fsd (purely work) is a bit different than cheating on his wife (purely personal). ~a[2022-11-01 20:37:41] - a: Same with Musk. Yeah, he's a bit more of a troll than I would like, but it's incredible what he has done with Tesla and other stuff like SpaceX. -Paul
[2022-11-01 20:36:26] - a: I think I believe Musk is far less a tool than you do (maybe 20%?), but I also think I am more willing to separate the artist from the art, if you will. I kind of knew Joss Whedon was a jerk awhile ago, but I still love his TV shows and movies. Don't really approve of Bezos' cheating, but respect his creation of Amazon. -Paul
[2022-11-01 19:51:32] - anyways i could go on, but hopefully you can at least follow my feelings on one of these specifics. ~a
[2022-11-01 19:50:19] - mig: vegas loop is fucking terrible and fuck musk for promoting it. reportedly musk exposed himself to a spacex flight attendant and propositioned her for sex. tesla fsd is terrible, will always be terrible, and musk is constantly lying about it. torturing mice? predicting in 2020, that the us was going to have "close to zero new cases" by the end of april. ~a
[2022-11-01 19:50:16] - mig: seriously? at this point i'm not sure if i can find any specifics that will make you happy. anyways. the hyperloop fraud: he made up lies to get in the way of HSR in california because he was worried about competation with tesla. "pedo guy" thai schoolboys lies (i just learned he paid a PI $50k to find dirt on him). running over kids. starlink clearly will never make a profit. ~a
[2022-11-01 19:37:29] - a: how specifically is he a tool? - mig
[2022-11-01 18:34:15] - i wish elon musk wasn't such a massive tool because i want to enjoy stuff like this. this is really fun to watch, AND the single greatest advancement in spaceflight in my lifetime. basically no cooler than every one of spacex's previous videos, but seriously i never get bored of these. ~a
[2022-11-01 17:55:07] - cds at 4% when inflation is 8% isn't weird to me, really. i take back what i said about it being weird. i could imagine putting money into a CD right now at 4%. but i don't think i'd ever do it instead of putting money into an ibond. it'd only be if i had money after maxing out the ibonds? another thing i'd like to think on: my retirement planner doesn't use ibonds personally. i haven't asked him why. or what he uses instead? ~a
[2022-11-01 16:33:42] - Most cds have similar downsides. Right? If I get a 1 year cd and I want the money in that first year there is often a penalty of some sort. what's more, this is a 400bp difference. It doesn't even feel like the same ballpark. ~a
[2022-11-01 16:06:15] - a: "the idea of getting 4% for a 1-year-CD when inflation rates are 8% just seems so weird to me" iBonds have clear downsides, though, right? Can't sell within a year. 3 month penalty if sold within 5 years. Rates that are variable. -Paul
[2022-11-01 16:05:13] - a: "why would they keep decreasing?" If (and I acknowledge it's a big if) inflation keeps going down? "ibond yield will always be higher than 1-year-CDs yield, right?" Why would it? Has inflation historically been above the going UST rate? -Paul
[2022-11-01 15:57:43] - paul: the idea of getting 4% for a 1-year-CD when inflation rates are 8% just seems so weird to me. especially when ibonds are always getting at least the inflation rate. ~a
[2022-11-01 15:56:41] - paul: why would they keep decreasing? ibond yield will always be higher than 1-year-CDs yield, right? only rarely do those two curves ever get even near each-other. ~a
[2022-11-01 15:48:34] - https://www.capitalone.com/bank/cds/online-cds/ 4% one year CDs. Starting to look interesting if yields on iBonds keep decreasing. -Paul
[2022-11-01 15:16:22] - a: Yeah, wasn't trying to imply any kind of conspiracy. Honestly, even in the most wild conspiracy of some weird gay orgy gone wrong or whatever.... it still seems like Paul Pelosi was in a lot of danger. It just seem bizarre the lack of security in addition to the initial reports of Pelosi referring to Depape as a friend and the fact he was allowed to take a bathroom break alone. -Paul
[2022-11-01 14:51:23] - paul: ok. so, i saw stuff like "wait to get the full picture" and "a lot of stuff seems weird" and "that will be a little suspicious" and "That begs the question" and "I'll be curious if more stuff comes out" from you and miguel and i was trying to read between the lines. ~a
[2022-11-01 12:56:53] - a: "was paul pelosi in real danger or is it too soon to tell?" Oh, I didn't know that was in question. Oddness aside, the dude got attacked with a hammer from a guy who broke into his house and I feel safe saying is a little crazy. Definitely was in danger, and I assume Nancy Pelosi would have been as well if she had been home. -Paul
[2022-11-01 03:30:29] - "by breaking nancy’s kneecaps, she would then have to be wheeled into congress, which would show other members of congress there were consequences to actions" fuck me. ~a
[2022-11-01 03:27:45] - paul: it boils down to (imo) was paul pelosi in real danger or is it too soon to tell? i say, no longer is it too soon to tell: paul pelosi was in real danger. stuff i heard for the first time today was pretty grim: according to depape: "he planned to hold Nancy Pelosi hostage for questioning and that if she told the 'truth', he would let her go but if she 'lied', he would break 'her kneecaps'" (these scare-quotes are pretty scary) ~a a
[2022-11-01 02:27:25] - a: So, yeah, if there are oddities to the story then I am willing to chalk a lot of it up to the fact that the attacker was seemingly an odd dude. Maybe he legit didn't considering giving his hostage an unsupervised bathroom break was a problem. -Paul
[2022-11-01 02:16:57] - a: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/oct/29/what-we-know-about-nudist-activist-and-conspiracy-/ Also, the nudist thing, and hemp jewelry, and not making eye contact, and being afraid of bank tellers, and the alleged abuse. -Paul
[2022-11-01 02:14:42] - a: The political stuff seems sufficient, but you're right. It's more than that. From what I read, almost everybody who knew him thought he was odd. He apparently was involved with a lot of hard drugs and lived in a storage unit? -Paul
[2022-10-31 17:06:35] - paul: "seems a little crazy". sorry if i missed a key bit of reporting, but what makes him literally crazy? he's a fervent q-anon supporter and maybe has been radicalized by the pro-trump/pro-qanon extremist machine, but i feel like that's not what you're talking about, right? it's that he used to be a nudist or something? ~a
[2022-10-31 15:07:13] - a: Hmmm.... I guess? I would've thought grabbing a hammer and trekking to the Speaker of the House's.... house and asking "where's Nancy" would be premeditated enough. Also, I think the fact that the person seems a little crazy might overrule how premeditated their actions were to me. -Paul
[2022-10-31 15:04:12] - hammer says crime of passion or crime of opportunity. it's not a normal weapon but it is normally available. zip ties says there was planning. ~a
[2022-10-31 14:26:14] - a: Are zip ties a big deal? I would think the hammer he used to attack Pelosi would be a bigger deal.
Also, as I understand it, he didn't start to attack Pelosi until the police showed up? I'm honestly a little shocked he didn't get riddled with bullets. I guess it was easier to disarm him? -Paul[2022-10-31 14:16:49] - mig: you buried the lead: "zip ties found at the scene of pelosi home invasion" ~a
[2022-10-31 12:46:00] - https://twitter.com/tom_winter/status/1586797283856744451?s=46&t=xOsdUynURLMyG8zW60hpGg apparently there was no 3rd person at the property. That begs the question then who let the police in? - mig
[2022-10-31 12:43:45] - supposedly the pelosis have security cameras all over their property. If that footage is somehow not available and we don’t get police bodycam footage that will be a little suspicious. - mig
[2022-10-30 23:58:41] - a: But I haven't seen anything else on that, so maybe that was erroneous? I'll be curious if more stuff comes out at some point. -Paul
[2022-10-30 23:56:31] - a: Also hard to get reliable info on some things. Like, apparently he called the attacker a friend when on the phone with the cops? I guess that's the "code" he was speaking? I also saw a report a third "unknown person" let cops in... -Paul
[2022-10-30 22:27:40] - agreed. according to right wing social media he somehow was both: 1. attacked by a false-flag democrat operative. 2. it was a hired prostitute that went bad. i'm not sure how it can be both #1 and #2, but there you go. ~a
[2022-10-30 20:51:31] - a: Thanks. Some things still seem weird, though, like the lack of security and why the attacker let him use the bathroom and didn't attack until police arrived. -Paul
[2022-10-30 06:20:16] - paul: well here's a fuckton of more details if you want to get a better picture ~a
[2022-10-30 00:32:06] - a: This definitely feels like one of those stories where I want to wait to get the full picture before passing any kind of judgement. Until then, I hope Paul Pelosi recovers quickly, his attacker gets some mental / emotional help, and the Pelosi's get some security. -Paul
[2022-10-29 20:39:29] - obviously many people who aren't elected get security, so yeah, who knows. but the pelosi's are pretty rich (50-100m), so i imagine they'd have at least some basic security regardless? ~a
[2022-10-29 20:37:05] - yah. my guess is that many of those details will eventually come out. i read in one article that he doesn't get security because he's not elected. that doesn't seem right, so maybe the article was wrong, i dunno. ~a
[2022-10-29 19:51:56] - a: I am not following the story very closely, but a lot of stuff seems weird. Why was there no security for the family of the person third in line of succession? How did he get away to call police? Who let them in? -Paul
[2022-10-29 18:30:10] - the fact that he showed up with a hammer in a situation where there could be armed secret service does show a lack of good judgement. but on the other hand, he did hurt pelosi's husband, and could have easily hurt pelosi. despite being mentally ill, it was a real threat. ~a
[2022-10-29 01:43:13] - https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/28/politics/pelosi-attack-suspect-conspiracy-theories-invs/index.html Sounds like the attacker had a few screws loose... -Paul
[2022-10-28 20:57:56] - https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/elon-musk-closes-deal-acquire-twitter-reports/story?id=92122221 brutal. savage. rekt. - mig
[2022-10-28 16:44:58] - assailant shouted ‘where is nancy?’ in break-in at speaker’s home, attack on paul pelosi i guess they're mad that they didn't get her in 2021? ~a
[2022-10-28 12:28:50] - More META. https://www.mediaite.com/tv/i-was-wrong-jim-cramer-overcome-with-emotion-as-he-apologizes-for-being-wrong-about-meta/ -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 19:43:10] - a: I believe that's the law; and so having it in the policy might be a reinforcement, perhaps because they had a violation in the past and put it in to try to remediate. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 19:23:17] - "[company] will not discharge ... or discriminate against any employee ... because such employee has inquired about, discussed, or disclosed [how much they are paid]". i feel like we talked about this a bunch in the past, it is interesting to me that my new employer has decided to make this a formal policy. ~a
[2022-10-27 16:33:50] - xpovos: yep! depends on what state, because of course it does. if you look in the link, virginia and washington dc have at least considered similar measures. regarding the speed limit, non-ebikes are totally not required to have a speed measuring device, and you are not required to judge your own speed, so you might be "fine". ebikes are a different story of course, they totally need to be able to measure their speed. ~a
[2022-10-27 16:20:52] - While waling with my youngest yesterday we were chatting about stop signs we were going past. She noted that we, as pedestrians, didn't have to stop (kinda). It spiraled from there and it blew her 9-year-old brain that a scooter/bicycle on the road would have to obey the stop sign AND the speed limit. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 16:19:33] - a: Congratulations! (?) That sounds incredibly exciting. I would say an electric bicycle is definitionally an electric vehicle, since bicycles are vehicles. But that definition always grates here in car-centric U.S. because we don't really consider bicycles to be vehicles, which is the root of the whole issue, I think. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 16:13:15] - xpovos: nice yeah, ok. well, my commute is looking like it might change. my current one is 10 minutes by bike. i sold my company this week and actually i'm going to stay on the 10 minutes by bike 4 days a week, but now 1 day per week i'm going to bike 1 hour by bike (and maybe by ebike?). is an ebike technically an EV? wikipedia thinks so. ~a
[2022-10-27 16:09:13] - a: I'm overall quite content. It could be better. But I have reached a comfortable equilibrium. Which actually puts me at a competitive advantage for a lot of next steps. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 16:06:31] - xpovos: yay? i know you have strong feelings about your commute (and i would too in your shoes). ~a
[2022-10-27 16:05:02] - xpovos: i can't seem to find that info anywhere. on the other hand, i found this from 2018 and it does suggest that electric cars will likely not become a major demand of rare earth metals compared to other sectors. ~a
[2022-10-27 16:03:55] - xpovos: battery disposal is on there (only measured in CO2, of course, though, which, again is just one dimension). i strongly agree about the rare earth metals, and the geopolitics. to even compare at all, we'd need to put the rare earth metals into some dimension: for instance each tesla model 3 requires how many grams of neodymium and how many grams of dysprosium? how many grams of lithium are required to make an ioniq 6? ~a
[2022-10-27 15:29:53] - a: I drive about 20 miles a day on average right now.
-- Xpovos[2022-10-27 15:29:05] - a: Total cost of ownership, expected lifetimes, an EV is lower total carbon emission than an ICE. No argument from me at all. But there are other extenalities. Battery disposal. Geopolitics around rare earth metals. etc. It's super complicated. If you are on the pro-EV side I think you can make a compelling argument overall. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 15:28:29] - a: "i think though, unless you're doing xpovos level of driving per day, that "slow"ness is 100% fine because you're sleeping and charging it when you sleep" Yes, that is what I think too, but we won't know for sure until we try it. I think we should be fine for 90% of our days. -Paul
[2022-10-27 15:21:20] - Xpovos: "This may be a difference in fundamental philosophies of investing then" Yeah, absolutely. I'm very much a "growth" investor who doesn't care if a company is burning cash as long as it is growing and can conceivably turn a profit eventually. Slow growing (or slowly dying) companies that are still generating tons of cash aren't interesting to me.... right now. Might change my mind when it's retirement time. -Paul
[2022-10-27 15:19:16] - xpovos: "The production is not cleaner (it's way 'dirtier') than ICE". i agree with you . . . sorta? i know this is one dimension (this isn't even CO2e probably), but it is kinda the total-cost-of-ownership so it's still my favorite graph on that topic (the topic being ARE ICEs more dirty or less?) ~a
[2022-10-27 15:16:47] - paul: "it might be costly for us to install a level 2 charger" "man is it slow". yes and yes. i think though, unless you're doing xpovos level of driving per day, that "slow"ness is 100% fine because you're sleeping and charging it when you sleep. most people with a median commute, and a SFH access to a power-plug, will be 100% fine with a 15A charger. ~a
[2022-10-27 15:16:42] - The biggest issue is that a utility in that sense needs competent management to keep costs in line and avoid doing stupid stuff. Zuckerberg is shit at that. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 15:16:04] - Paul: This may be a difference in fundamental philosophies of investing then. Companies selling a product and making money, with little to no growth potential, but no downside risks. "Utilities." Sign me up for dividends all day. I see you as staying far away. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 15:13:35] - Xpovos: We disagree on the ethics of it, but it doesn't really matter to me. I think Facebook has peaked and Instagram might have as well. Ad efficiency is going down. They basically NEED this metaverse bet to work in order to avoid a slow death from their main properties. -Paul
[2022-10-27 15:12:22] - Xpovos: I was skeptical for awhile too, and I agree it's not for everybody right now. I think because of my specific situation (solar panels, cheap-ish electricity, suburbs of a major metropolitan area, upper-middle-class, EV tax credit, etc), it made sense. Most of your criticisms seem valid. -Paul
[2022-10-27 15:06:19] - Paul: On Meta Apple has hurt them, in terms of profitability, I won't deny that. But since those profits were built on extraordinarily unethical practices, I'm not complaining. They're still making a boatload of money on advertising and most of the current issues are more advertisers being jittery about recession concerns anyway. A return to "normal" profits based on healthier advertising is a good thing. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 15:02:12] - If the problem with cars is that they're bad for the environment the solution is "not-cars," not "different cars." -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 15:01:36] - The EV concept overall is one I've been highly skeptical of since college. The biggest issues are: 1) The production is not cleaner (it's way 'dirtier') than ICE. 2) The production of fuel is marginally cleaner in many areas in the US, but has other issues. Our grid is not prepared for everyone charging their EVs. It can't even handle an unexpected cold snap. 3) The price point is unaffordable for the majority of Americans, even subsidized
[2022-10-27 14:59:50] - I'm very much not in the car market right now, but if I were, it would be to replace the van, which is now 14 years old. It's harder to do electric for bigger vehicles for a lot of reasons. I've no interest in the current selection on the market. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 14:58:13] - a: My most recent car, prior to my current, was a hybrid. I bought it used (as I have with all of my cars for the past decade--my last new car was 2008, which I drove until the transmission failed, and picked up the hybrid. The family van was used too.) The hybrid was fine. It got roughly the same mileage as my current ICE, with a lot of drawbacks. It shows the difference in tech that occurred between the production dates. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 14:10:21] - a: But we won't know for sure until we try. I think it will work, but man is it slow. -Paul
[2022-10-27 14:10:07] - a: "paul, you mostly charge on 120v yes?" So, this will be very interesting to see. We got 2 free years of Electrify America DC charging, so we have been effectively been doing 99% of our charging there. My hope/plan is that once that ends, we will just be charging at home (at night and maybe during the day some days) using 120v since I think it might be costly for us to install a level 2 charger. -Paul
[2022-10-27 14:06:52] - Xpovos: I'm not interested in META, but it has little to do with Zuck. I just find their product meh and Apple is absolutely wrecking their ad revenue with their deprecation of IDFA. -Paul
[2022-10-27 14:01:09] - though maybe i'm overestimating people... -Daniel
[2022-10-27 14:01:01] - Zuck trying to do Meta seems crazy to me in some ways because I feel like in terms of data people aren't in the same place as they were in the early 2000's where they would just share / put whatever on Facebook. People don't trust him so why would they give him more info in a whole new system? -Daniel
[2022-10-27 13:59:42] - the thing that i like about EVs that i've learned recently, is that unless you're in a very specific subset of people, you'd be fine with a standard (120v) charger and that the DC chargers are really unnecessary unless you're on a car-trip. paul, you mostly charge on 120v yes? ~a
[2022-10-27 13:59:33] - Xpovos: Yeah we looked at some sort of EV last time we were buying a new car (pre pandemic) but ended up getting ICE due to cost / features / maintenance concerns. Hopefully the next time around some of those issues go away or are better. -Daniel
[2022-10-27 13:58:26] - xpovos: why are you not on board? i've watched a lot of videos about EVs and it makes me want paul's car the more and more that i learn about it (the ioniq line really is what sounds cool to me, i don't know much about specific models). i'll probably get an ebike before i get an ev car, but some day maybe my family will have both. ~a
[2022-10-27 13:55:19] - paul: i have no clue about fees. i feel like bitcoin fees dropped a bunch around the time lightning started to become popular (though it could have been a coincidence). ~a
[2022-10-27 13:54:24] - paul: you are right. i said the wrong words. what i meant was a cashapp user can receive a bitcoin transaction from a NON-user. either way, i'm sad that venmo & paypal do none of this. you can't even send bitcoin transactions period (you can BUY bitcoin, but that's it) and definitely you can't receive bitcoin transactions from non-users. ~a
[2022-10-27 12:30:11] - In other news: if I had ANY confidence in Zuckerberg or any of the META leadership, I'd be looking to buy today/next week. This latest dropoff today (-23% premarket) after the massive decline over the past year (something like -60%) is incredible. And it's not like they aren't making money/profits. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 11:46:30] - Source: https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2022/10/27/zero_emissions_from_electric_vehicles_heres_why_that_claim_has_zero_basis_860938.html -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 11:46:18] - "But public demand is lagging, and until that changes, governments will have to incentivize consumers to buy electric cars. Currently EVs appeal to a narrow demographic: affluent, educated, coastal, and liberal, with the highest enthusiasm among 35- to 45-year-olds." This seems to bode poorly if I'm the prime target for EVs, even conceptually. I'm not on board. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-27 03:54:17] - a: Do you know if there are any fees involved? If not, that would be nice, but it's a little hard to see how it's significantly different from USD in some ways. I'm more interested in the fact Cash App didn't make hay over the PayPal controversy. -Paul
[2022-10-27 03:52:40] - a: I honestly thought they had that functionality previously, but then I saw something.... I think from Michael Saylor? Saying something about Cash App handling level 1, level 2 (lightning network) and level 3 (user to user) transactions. -Paul
[2022-10-26 17:24:05] - paul: did you see that your SQ company just added bitcoin transactions between users this week? link to an announcement from product lead on cashapp. ~a
[2022-10-26 14:40:43] - https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1585249344487559169 I don't often think of Ann Coulter as funny, but this made me chuckle. -Paul
[2022-10-24 17:48:13] - i replied on email, sorry. i'm available sorta, but can't commit to a night. (i'll play if i'm free. closing is this week.) ~a
[2022-10-24 16:52:56] - a: vote for sc2 night? -Daniel
[2022-10-21 18:07:45] - everybody loves to go to jail for donald trump. they're falling over themselves to spend time in jail for him. it's like a compulsion. ~a
[2022-10-19 20:26:57] - also polling for democrats in general is pretty shaky right now. - mig
[2022-10-19 20:26:10] - a: we’re a few weeks out from an election and gas prices are probably a big voter issue. Circumstantial evidence obviously. mig
[2022-10-19 19:36:36] - a: "is there any evidence that it's being done to score political points though? i haven't seen any yet." Not that I know of. I mean, it's a very thin line, right? Nothing wrong with trying to help Americans. How do we know if he's doing it because he thinks it's right vs he thinks it wins him votes? I do think it's obvious that it's mostly a PR stunt, though, considering how limited of an impact it likely has. -Paul
[2022-10-19 19:32:14] - paul: i don't care that much about my rating. if your internet drops in the middle of a team ranked match, i don't think we will suffer any long-term losses we can't recover from. i'll just be happy to be playing team ranked with or without fair teams. ~a
[2022-10-19 19:30:02] - paul/mig: i agree that releasing parts of the strategic petrolium reserve right now is very irresponsible. is there any evidence that it's being done to score political points though? i haven't seen any yet. ~a
[2022-10-19 19:29:01] - aDaniel: Apparently my internet is getting disconnected at midnight tonight (short story is we're switching Fios plans and apparently that requires a disconnect and reconnect for some reason), so whoever is leading our SC2 group should make sure NOT to include me in a team ranked match at 11:58.
-Paul[2022-10-19 19:26:09] - xpovos: i noticed that europeans pay an average of $2.50/gallon in gas taxes, and americans pay an average of $0.50/gallon in gas taxes. so that people in the UK want to decrease gas taxes does track. i think it's a horrible idea, but i don't think it would necessarily hurt UK inflation. in the US it would be a bit different, because we already pay less per gallon in gas taxes than they do per liter. ~a
[2022-10-19 19:22:44] - xpovos: yes, that is a good point you did mention that. child-UBI is a good idea and does help dull the sting of people who are forced to give birth. ~a
[2022-10-19 15:05:46] - paul: “helping democrats” is absolutely the motivator here. - mig
[2022-10-19 15:05:05] - also problematic is begging tyrannical governments like saudia arabia and venezuela for oil production. - mig
[2022-10-19 13:47:40] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve.webp
[2022-10-19 13:47:36] - Assuming this is accurate, that's an awful lot of red over the past ~4 years, which some fairly significant downdraws included in the past year to few months. It's down about a third from recent peak? Those are concerning aspects. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-19 13:43:59] - Paul: I'd personally argue that any drawdown of the SPR for non-military use is problematic, but it's a tool that's been used (problematically) by a number of administrations. So the next level has to be scale, I think. I don't have the numbers in front of me. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-19 13:39:54] - Xpovos: Relevant to the first item there: At what point do we start questioning whether further releases from the strategic petroleum reserve to bring down gas prices during a time when people are discussing the potential of world war 3 as being unwise? How do we separate actions done to help the American people vs help Democrats during midterms? -Paul
[2022-10-19 13:34:11] - So, to deal with inflation, the most popular options are: generally considered to be quite inflationary. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-19 13:33:18] - UK poll, so not necessarily translatable, but I think it probably is. https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazo
[2022-10-19 12:18:51] - a: I recently expressed significant positive interest in the child-UBI. I'm definitely not opposed to more similar efforts in the future, and ensuring appropriate resources are available for women choosing to bear children is a policy priority. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-17 19:08:52] - and the person you're asking to cover the excess cost will sometimes have a bunch of trouble paying it. ~a
[2022-10-17 16:54:47] - someone has to care about the excess cost. ~a
[2022-10-17 16:00:12] - a: That's also partly my bias coming through, I acknowledge. I genuinely don't care about the relative excess cost of an unwanted pregnancy compared to an abortion because those excess costs are actually an investment which, in my estimation, pays off in the long run. I recognize that's not a popular opinion. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-17 15:02:58] - btw, you're 100% right about stds, i fully accept that. which is maybe one of the reasons i have a hard time finding good info on the undesirability of condoms? the CDC would *never* come out and say "everyone thinks condoms are lame" because the CDC cares a bunch about stds too. ~a
[2022-10-17 15:00:48] - xpovos: "paying for apathy" aren't you actually saving money though? abortions do cost society. they cost society a fuckton less than unwanted pregnancy, but they cost a lot more than birth control pills. ~a
[2022-10-17 14:57:25] - a: They are undesirable. Accepted. They provide excellent protection against unwanted pregnancies AND STDs. Alternatives have lower protective values against both, frequently. It seems to me that in fact it's not just undesirability, but just that people don't actually care. I get paying for solutions. I don't get paying for apathy. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-17 14:49:49] - xpovos: i've done some googling (at work) on the desirability/undesirability of condoms, but can't find you a good link. can we all agree on their undesirability though? do i really have to prove this? yes, i fully expect a higher uptake of more desirable forms of birth control, but really don't have any numbers to back that up, sorry. just that 9% of people choose to use condoms . . . for a pretty good reason? ~a
[2022-10-17 14:43:14] - a: If the choice is to go without the cheap/free option, why is it incumbent to pursue higher cost options? Why is there any expectation of higher uptake? -- Xpovos
[2022-10-17 14:37:09] - xpovos: another weird thought: almost as many people go without contraception (8%) vs the people who go with condoms (9%). ~a
[2022-10-17 14:32:18] - xpovos: uuuh, i don't think i have a good logical argument here, sorry. i'd probably redirect and suggest that 91% of women in america have decided to not use condoms despite their low cost. wow, i'm actually really surprised how high female sterilization is. i never would have guessed based on how i usually considered that a thing men get? apparently no. ~a
[2022-10-17 14:26:26] - a: Ok, if that's insufficient, please explain why. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-17 14:25:39] - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/17/kanye-west-is-buying-conservative-social-media-platform-parler-company-says.html Don't want to pile onto somebody who seems to be having some sort of mental breakdown, but file this under something I did NOT expect to see in 2022. -Paul
[2022-10-17 14:24:26] - i do think that it doesn't need to get significantly easier for the average american. if you're on health insurance, i think the burden is small. but it does need to get easier for the average american not on health insurance. or the average american in nyc, maybe? ~a
[2022-10-17 14:21:01] - xpovos: yes. ~a
[2022-10-17 14:20:56] - https://www.healthline.com/health/birth-control/birth-control-cost#fa-qs I hear a lot about easy and affordable access to birth control, but how expensive is it and how hard is it to get? I'm not saying $240 to $600 a year is cheap for uninsured people, but it's around the same cost as a cell phone plan for a $5 Starbucks coffee a few times a week. And I would imagine cheaper than an abortion? -Paul
[2022-10-17 13:34:14] - a: Why not just mail a box of 30 condoms to every USPS postal address once a month? That's going to be a lot cheaper. Is that insufficient? -- Xpovos
[2022-10-17 13:33:51] - 33 million americans sure seems like a lot. ~a
[2022-10-17 13:31:52] - xpovos: $50/month for uninsured to buy pills or $1000 for an IUD (up front) for the uninsured is too much imo. so then, (again in my opinion) the crux becomes: 1. do some insurance plans not pay for pills or an IUD? if not, why not? or 2. who is uninsured? ~a
[2022-10-17 12:28:29] - a: How much easier and more affordable do you need/want access to birth control to be to make a difference? -- Xpovos
[2022-10-17 12:09:26] - a: I don't disagree but I don't know if the #s that are cited in that article are a particularly desirable result. - mig
[2022-10-16 21:23:03] - paul: yes, easy and affordable access to birth control is very important. ~a
[2022-10-15 14:57:21] - https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2016/09/04/politifact-in-new-york-city-black-womens-abortions-outnumber-births/10071450007/ TIL that apparently there are more black abortions than live births in NYC. That's mind boggling to me. -Paul
[2022-10-14 14:38:20] - paul: agreed! i think it's xpovos's and my fault that we were concerned with efficiency. but i agree so much: efficiency matters much less than entertainment+happiness, or health (physical health AND mental health), or freedom, or money. or the fucking environment. but it's those reasons i also prefer to go on foot (or bus, ebike, scooter, etc) ~a
[2022-10-14 14:26:41] - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1580819437824839681 This is a super interesting exchange relevant to our discussion about which side Musk is on in the Ukraine / Russia conflict. -Paul
[2022-10-14 14:26:10] - Maybe the metro is efficient at moving people places (although I honestly might challenge that), but it's very rarely the best option for me specifically to get where I want to go. -Paul
[2022-10-14 14:24:40] - Efficiency is a great thing to strive for, but I think in a lot of ways it can be at odds with individuality and joy. Like, the most efficient thing for food would probably be have everybody eat the exact same gruel which is shipped in bulk to their house and eliminate the need for different types of grocery stores with different types of food. Most efficient clothing is probably we all wear beige jumpsuits or something. -Paul
[2022-10-14 14:15:50] - mig: total efficiency should probably include the people who don't make it to their destination. and space efficiency? time to get from a to b is almost always my least concern for efficiency. ~a
[2022-10-14 14:14:19] - mig: well, i guess that's how we get shitty traffic though, right? if that's your primary concern for efficiency, i hope you live out in the country or where there are no highways. (moreso i don't blame you. i have two cars myself. as you can see the comic it's easy to not blame drivers, but i do not blame drivers. at least not when they're outside the voting booth. comic makes less sense if you separate "drivers" from "voters") ~a
[2022-10-14 14:03:26] - a: it gets me from point a to b faster and thats my primary concern for efficiency. - mig
[2022-10-14 05:22:13] - there's nothing efficient about single occupancy, multitonne, personally owned vehicles sitting 95% of their lives in a parking space. sorry if that was your point. ~a
[2022-10-14 02:52:18] - a: I think the absence of "pressure" on politicians and the cars themselves is probably unintentionally telling. A particular dislike of the lack of ability to pressure politicians within the system, and either a strong personal dislike of cars, or an understanding that the car itself doesn't get much more efficient than it currently is as quite possibly the most engineered consumer product in existence at this time--or both. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-14 00:02:58] - xpovos: yeah it's meant to be irony, so to figure out the creator's mind you might have to reverse it? maybe you've already done that though? i'm not sure. ~a
[2022-10-13 19:12:02] - a: It's probably overanalyzing a semi-comedic infographic, but I find it insightful (at least into the creator's mind) that car drivers has three recursive inputs, same as car manufacturers, while the dealers have two and politicians and cars only have one each. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-13 17:37:02] - the "moderate's guide" to doing nothing about car dependency ~a
[2022-10-13 16:55:24] - paul: i'm not sure this answers your question about gas prices because transportation commodities specifically excludes fuel. but maybe that's in "energy"? anyways, cars and housing is included. ~a
[2022-10-13 16:53:59] - a: I agree it would be a mistake to read too much into a single image. I was just noting the difference of tone on twitter from me. Lots of pessimism from lots of sources. Makes me think we might (only MIGHT) be closer to a bottom than maybe we were months ago. -Paul
[2022-10-13 16:52:54] - A cooling down? Yeah, inflation is not as hot as it was a few months ago. But I expected more of a cooling down considering the drop from highs for gas prices and used cars and housing. Maybe those are things excluded from CPI?
-Paul[2022-10-13 16:42:41] - paul: "this is definitely not the type of things I saw a lot of at the top" (from your twitter feed) while this is true, maybe you're reading too much into the image? i feel like this is math (inverting a number plus one, then minus one) that most people don't fully comprehend. yes i agree that the timing of the image is suspect, but it's still a useful financial equation that very few people wrap their minds around. ~a
[2022-10-13 16:35:58] - xpovos: on the other hand, i do agree that this probably counts as cooling down, sorta. ~a
[2022-10-13 16:33:07] - xpovos: 0.3 and 0.4 isn't annualized though, so it isn't exactly comparable. worded differently, the past month was actually (slightly) higher than the historical average for the past 60 years and also the last 100 years (4%/year). ~a
[2022-10-13 16:29:07] - I mean, it did cool down. The period was 0.3 or 0.4? The problem is that so much was already baked in for YoY, and failing cratering prices, which would be equally destabilizing, this is probably as good as it gets. The question now is, can it stay like this; and can it stay like this without guaranteeing a recession? -- Xpovos
[2022-10-13 15:58:02] - a: Yeah. It was higher than I expected. I kind of thought things would cool down with some supply chain things ironed out, housing prices seemingly coming down, gas prices stabilizing, and car prices getting back to reasonable. Guess not.
-Paul[2022-10-13 15:53:53] - 8% for the past 12 months (last month was 5% annualized, the last two months were 3% annualized). nothing too crazy imo, but semi-confirms my thoughts that inflation is likely to revert to the mean of 4%. ~a
[2022-10-13 15:48:37] - paul: new inflation numbers out today. ~a
[2022-10-12 16:10:51] - fairfax county could introduce speed enforcement cameras. maybe a departure from last time, but i am against speed cameras. it's the wrong solution to road deaths and injuries. but, ffc sucks balls at making these necessary safe street-ways. maybe doing nothing is better than cameras, i'm not sure? ~a
[2022-10-12 14:51:52] - i get that they can't ride the bus. ~a
[2022-10-12 14:51:30] - like aren't your kids specifically worked by all but one of the benefits? ~a
[2022-10-12 14:50:06] - you did say that but then you also said "it unfortunately wouldn't work specifically for our kids in their situation". like, you are implicitly stating that you are only looking at one part of the equation? ~a
[2022-10-12 14:48:50] - a: Yes? I mean, I did say it "sounds pretty cool" and "I can particularly see how it would work well for the school our kids go to for the kids who live in the neighborhood". I just think it unfortunately wouldn't work specifically for our kids in their situation. -Paul
[2022-10-12 14:33:50] - ("I doubt they would shut down West Ox for a few minutes", i have lots to say about west ox, and i'll try to bite my tongue. i'm sure the "bike bus" does have to route around damage) ~a
[2022-10-12 14:31:50] - paul: and all of the other benefits i described? ~a
[2022-10-12 14:31:29] - paul: but you see my point, hopefully, yes? your kids (and in full honesty, really truly, just kids in your kids same situation) are ever so less likely to be killed or maimed by a car. ~a
[2022-10-12 14:27:21] - a: I mean in terms of my kids being able to participate. They're across a major road from school and to my knowledge there aren't a ton of other kids in that situation so I doubt they would shut down West Ox for a few minutes to let my kids cross safely. -Paul
[2022-10-12 13:26:30] - but . . . it will work well for you. fewer busses in the road, less strain on the bus driver shortage*, less strain on road maintenance (fourth power law), less money on bus (gas+maintenance+assets) and bus drivers, fewer parents dropping off kids, fewer cars on the road driving kids to school, fewer road deaths and injuries, more county money to spend on more effective transport, we don't even have kids and it does work well for us. ~a
[2022-10-12 01:51:48] - a: Bike bus sounds pretty cool, if I am understanding it properly. I can particularly see how it would work well for the school our kids go to for the kids who live in the neighborhood. Unfortunately, because it's not our base school, it wouldn't work as well for us. -Paul
[2022-10-12 01:49:57] - a: Yeah, I don't think he would lie, but at the same time it's a little bizarre any news outlet would run a story like that without checking with him? I dunno. -Paul
[2022-10-11 20:05:54] - any thoughts on the bike bus? a lady in my area has one of these for the local elementary school. i have some crazy thoughts about the bike bus, but i also am trying to temper my expectations. ~a
[2022-10-11 20:03:37] - i do believe him. as shit of a person as musk is in my eyes, i don't think he is a liar. ~a
[2022-10-11 19:40:43] - a: But if it comes out he DID talk to Putin AND lied about it? Sure, that would lend more credence to him being influenced by Putin. It would still seem odd, though, considering the support he has given to Ukraine in the form of Starlink. -Paul
[2022-10-11 19:39:46] - a: Like, I didn't necessarily support his plan before or support him weighing in. Just tried to explain that maybe he was supporting peace out of a genuine fear of nuclear annihilation and not because he's a Putin puppet. -Paul
[2022-10-11 19:38:53] - a: A few things: (1) Very unclear if this is actually true ( https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1579879154463690752 ) and (2) I'm not entirely sure I had a view to begin with other than: "Yeah, Elon likes to get involved in stuff which is not his specialty" -Paul
[2022-10-11 19:02:57] - paul: does this change your view at all? i'm not poking you, i'm curious. i could actually see this making you more happy about his tweet, or less happy, but i'm not sure. ~a
[2022-10-11 17:19:12] - a: I knew someone who worked for the Mars Group. She had some interesting stories, though she couldn't say much. Very much a hush hush company. I suspect NDAs all over the place. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-11 17:18:47] - "should it?" well we're measuring the gpd per person, so . . . well still probably yes. if your population is decreasing quickly, nothing good can come of that unless you have a good plan. even then, yikes. ~a
[2022-10-11 17:16:49] - a: Not surprised by France. As I think we've discussed, I tend to think the economies of Europe are generally not overly robust. I know Japan has weirdness with its economy in the sense of their population shrinking, but I don't think that should necessarily affect GDP.... should it? South Korea is a little more surprising to me. -Paul
[2022-10-11 17:16:28] - obviously jacqueline mars, with a name like that, she obviously will affect me directly in a few weeks. ~a
[2022-10-11 17:14:05] - ha yes! that's cool. i looked at the virginia billionaires though, and i have no effing clue who any of them are. i wonder if any of them affect us (directly?) ~a
[2022-10-11 17:13:02] - The internet provides: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Duff_(businessman) -- Xpovos
[2022-10-11 17:11:53] - "seem to benefit extremely unequal distributions of gdp" yes i agree with this. mean definitely is affected by outliers more than a median. but . . . so is reality? if you have a billionaire in your locality, his "product" will sometimes affect your life. ~a
[2022-10-11 17:09:47] - a: So that would seem to benefit extremely unequal distributions of gdp, which the U.S. probably has some claim to. It's both the highest GDP and one of the highest in terms of GINI. Breaking it down by state might fix some of that, but the patterns are going to be the same, I suspect. Now I'm curious who Mississippi's billionaires are. Or hundred-millionaires? -- Xpovos
[2022-10-11 17:09:30] - it may not technically be a mean? since you can't (or at least don't) calculate gdp for an individual person, i don't think. you typically calculate gdp for a region. ~a
[2022-10-11 16:58:06] - xpovos: yes pp is definitely always mean. you take the total nominal gdp and divide by the population, so it's a mean. ~a
[2022-10-11 16:56:15] - But on the face, I'm not surprised. At least not much. Median wages obviously have a strong geographic component in the U.S., but there is no state that isn't buoyed by some strong geographic feature (city or resource) and I'd expect the median gdp to be roughly on par with the median wage. And all of those countries (and every country except, like Luxemburg) has a lower median wage. -- Xpovos
[2022-10-11 16:53:32] - a: Means or medians? And are they the same across metrics? Is that implicit in the nominal gpdpp statistic? -- Xpovos
[2022-10-11 16:03:48] - japan, south korea, and france, all have a lower nominal gdp per population than the LOWEST US state. the lowest! wtf france? and japan? and south korea? i don't know who to be the most surprised by. (nominal gpd pp, lowest us state, mississipi = 47k, france = 45k, japan = 39k, south korea = 35k) ~a
[2022-10-11 15:22:16] - yah. ~a
[2022-10-11 15:22:09] - a: About the only thing that probably got "worse" was more lax behavior and maybe a more infectious variant? -Paul
[2022-10-11 15:21:39] - a: And the fact that they are close even though that second time frame had access to vaccines AND a less lethal variant AND after we presumably lost many of our most vulnerable already... it seems shocking to me. -Paul
[2022-10-11 15:20:48] - a: Yeah, this wasn't meant to be an indictment on Biden and I don't think we need to quibble about the exact numbers or time frames. It sounds like we both agree the number of deaths over similar time frames are close. -Paul
[2022-10-11 04:47:18] - *similar. ~a
[2022-10-11 03:37:27] - paul: "but we surpassed more deaths under Biden a lot earlier than now" while this is true, your link didn't state anything about Biden or trump. I'll pose that trump and Biden had siliar COVID 19 death counts in their first equal amounts of time, and your link doesn't suggest otherwise. "had more COVID deaths under Biden than we did Trump" if you mean equal amounts of time, I say no probably not, but it was probably close. ~a
[2022-10-11 03:24:06] - Wednesday or Thursday. thanks! ~a
[2022-10-11 01:07:50] - a: any vote on sc2 this week? -Daniel
[2022-10-09 11:46:31] - Sweden seemed to do better too, and I recall they took a different path of not locking down but trying to segregate their elderly. Looks like Australia also had some good results with their super strict locking down? -Paul
[2022-10-09 11:45:49] - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality Like, what the hell did Japan do? Don't they even have an older population? Maybe because they're an island? Or have a culture of masking? Or less overweight? -Paul
[2022-10-09 11:42:09] - In terms of COVID responses, I feel like we're far enough in that we can look back and compare responses. Is there any country that seemed like it had a notably better (or worse) outcome? Can we learn from that? -Paul
[2022-10-09 11:40:39] - a: he (surprisingly) seemed to be consistently supportive of the vaccine, which makes it a bit odd why his supporters tended to be against it. -Paul
[2022-10-09 11:40:02] - a: "he constantly and consistently undermined his own task force" Totally willing to believe this, although I am not sure specifically what you mean by this. My only point is that no matter how bad Trump was on COVID... -Paul
[2022-10-09 11:39:12] - a: That''s what boggles my mind. The time period was about the same, except the latter time period had vaccines available, a less lethal variant as the dominant one, and presumably we had more knowledge (and more of our susceptible population already culled). -Paul
[2022-10-09 11:38:02] - a: "11 months != 20 months" But we surpassed more deaths under Biden a lot earlier than now. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/jan/18/roger-williams/williams-accurate-there-were-more-covid-19-deaths-/ -Paul
[2022-10-08 14:19:57] - he constantly and consistently undermined his own task force. im not letting anyone off the hook, especially antivaxers, but everything fauci fucked up and everything the non-antivaxers fucked up is overshadowed by how he constantly and consistently undermined his own task force. ~a
[2022-10-08 13:43:31] - a: Masking and social distancing and everything else doesn't have to do with the vaccine, though. That was my point. As bad as Trump might have been on any number of things, he seemed to be pretty supportive and proud of the vaccine. -Paul
[2022-10-08 08:31:27] - I also think blaming primarily Trump is letting too many others off the hook. This was a collective fail effort. Trump didn’t do this by himself. We all did. - mig
[2022-10-08 08:23:28] - a: wasn’t it fauci himself who initially poo poo’d mask wearing? - mig
[2022-10-08 06:30:07] - ("not sure where my mental model is wrong" you're not comparing equal amounts of time. 11 months != 20 months, and the rest of the model that is weird is like a trillion confounding variables, it's like sometimes it rains when the weatherman predicts sun). ~a
[2022-10-08 06:09:23] - i mean 45 constantly and consistently undermined his own task force, why wouldn't you address that position? (then there was the belittling mask wearering, and the belittling of social distancing, and when he lied about the dangers the virus posed, and suppressed data on the virus and the deaths and the hospitalizations, and spread bullshit theories and cures, and encouraged people to protest against measures to limit the damage, and ...) ~a
[2022-10-08 02:55:38] - Not sure where my mental model is wrong: I guess Delta was deadlier than I figured since it was so infectious? Preventative measures less effective since people were tired of them? -Paul
[2022-10-08 02:54:20] - Almost related: I still can't believe we had more COVID deaths under Biden than we did Trump. Boggles my mind how that works. We had access to the vaccine AND had a less lethal variant AND had already dealt with it for a year... -Paul
[2022-10-08 02:31:08] - But, yeah, go science. Still seems pretty incredible how quickly we got that vaccine developed. I mean, wasn't even a lot of that time testing to make sure it was effective? -Paul
[2022-10-08 02:30:07] - Which is why it's always felt a little weird to me that Republicans suddenly became the anti-vax group somehow. Pre-COVID, I would've always assumed it was the hippies on the left who were mostly anti-vax. -Paul
[2022-10-08 02:27:50] - a: "fuck you donald trump" I understand the impulse, but I actually think this is a bit misplaced. The vaccine was developed during the Trump admin and was helped by some of their policies. Trump has even bragged about the vaccines ( https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-renews-praise-covid-vaccines-one-greatest-achievements-mankind-n1286551 ) -Paul
[2022-10-07 20:56:57] - the other part of me is like, wtf, that's insane. good job, science, and fuck you donald trump and antivax conspiracy assholes. ~a
[2022-10-07 20:56:07] - covid-19 vaccinations in 2021 linked to more than 650k fewer covid19 hospitalizations and over 300k fewer deaths among medicare beneficiaries. part of me is like, how could you possibly know that? ~a
[2022-10-07 15:40:41] - https://nypost.com/2022/10/06/chess-champ-gets-butt-inspected-amid-sex-toy-cheating-claims/ And people said the anal bead theory was a joke... -Paul
[2022-10-07 15:22:33] - xpovos: actc? yeah, i didn't realize this was a thing. $100/month, right? (1400 is refundable). that is pretty cool and could take a dent out of rent or grocery or something. ~a
[2022-10-06 19:55:34] - social safety net programs which are made redudant, military expenditure reductions, and probably some extra business taxes that do a good job of capturing internet tech which has done a great job so far at tax evasion. That was partially done to fund the infrastructure portion as well, but it could be better. -- Xpovos
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